This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Apple Carries The World On Its Shoulders: Market Snapshot

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As we said yesterday, traders could have just slept through the entire day, ignored headlines about mad cows, auctions of European bonds maturing in a few weeks, speculation of Europe's alleged falling out favor with austerity which is very much irrelevant as all that matters is what German taxpayers/voters say, and the SEC's latest laughable scapegoating attempts, and just woken to the 4:30 pm announcement of iPhone sales in China. As expected, the entire world is now reacting. Here is Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid with the global response to the world's ongoing fascination with aspirational cell phones.

From DB:

Overall Apple reported Q2 EPS and sales that came around 23% and 6% higher relative to market consensus. Actual earnings were almost doubled over the quarter driven by iPhone demand in China. Earnings and revenue outlook for Q3 were somewhat weaker though relative to market consensus but this is something they make a habit of doing. The company guided to a Q3 EPS of $8.68 and revenue of $34bn which compared to prevailing market consensus of $9.96 and $37.49bn. Nevertheless the results came as a relief for the stock that has fallen in 10 of the last 11 days. Apple rallied as much as 7.8% in after hours after having closed 2% lower on the day.

Earnings seem to be helping Asia slightly as bourses are mostly higher on the day led by better gains in Japan (+0.8%) and Taiwan (+0.8%). The Shanghai Composite and the KOSPI are around +0.3% higher while the Hang Seng is largely flat as we type. Asian credit markets are little changed as are Copper and Oil.

Asia is also being encouraged by a positive session in the US and European markets yesterday. The S&P 500 gained 0.37% helped by again another day of positive earnings. Of the 40 companies that reported yesterday 31 topped EPS expectations. Better US housing data also helped as house prices in February rose more than expected (+0.3% v +0.1%) and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index (14 v 6) also surprised to the upside. Elsewhere, Cattle futures were limit down in the US session (but somewhat firmer in Asia overnight) after a case of mad-cow disease was discovered in central California.

Across the Atlantic, European equities rebounded strongly as sovereign concerns were soothed by a decent Spanish and Dutch auction. The CAC, DAX and FTSE MIB rose 2.29%, 1.03%, and 2.48% respectively. Spain sold EU1.9bn in bills, which is close to the reduced target amount albeit with higher yields of late.

ECB’s Paramo seemed confident that the Spanish government will find a way to deal with the banking sector and added that ways are being considered to find “imaginative formulas to segregate troubled assets”. This gave the market some confidence that plans are afoot. Elsewhere the EFSF issued EU3bn in 7yr notes at 77bp on reportedly good demand. Spanish and Dutch 10yr bond yields fell 13bp and 9bp to 5.82% and 2.32%, respectively.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Greek central bank downgraded its forecast for the economy expecting it to shrink by about 5% (vs a 4.5% forecast a few weeks ago). Indeed in quite alarming stats given by Antonis Samaras, Greece had 1million companies in 2009 but 250,000 have since closed and 300,000 more do not pay their workers on time. However, the ‘good news’ is that the central bank was rather optimistic about achieving a primary budget surplus next year. The central bank also warned of downside risks to its growth forecasts if there are delays in implementing structural reforms. Austerity versus growth has always been a tough balancing act with the former being forced on Europe. That may change over time as the popular backlash against austerity escalates perhaps encouraged by the ongoing French elections and the recent Dutch rebellion. This is something I talked about yesterday in the call. Interestingly the WSJ yesterday wrote that some within the EU political circles are acknowledging that a better balance is perhaps needed in light of the growth problems and an option is to place the actual budget deficit on an “equal footing” with the “structural” deficit. A draft EU document obtained by Reuters showed that the European Commission will today propose a 6.8% increase in the EU’s budget next year despite calls for fiscal discipline.

Moving along we have another eventful day ahead of us. The FOMC is clearly a key event for markets. The statement is due at 12.30pm NY time ahead of the Fed Funds Rate projection at 2pm, and Bernanke’s press conference at 2.15pm NY. Overall our chief US economist does not expect the Fed to show any change in its current policy stance, including its conditional expectations to hold rates near zero at least through late 2014 as well as its intention to complete its twist program in June. Markets will pay attention to the FOMC’s economic forecasts and the tone from Bernanke’s press conference. Data wise durable goods orders will be the key US release. In Europe all eyes will be on the ECB lending survey. The reading remains a critical factor affecting euro area growth although our European economists highlight that even if we see some tentative loosening in credit standards today (perhaps due to LTRO effect) there may still be a lag of 2-3 quarters before it translates into positive momentum for credit origination. We also have the first reading of Q1 GDP in the UK today.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 04/25/2012 - 03:00 | 2372579 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

A 40+ $ (spike) on the (earnings) beat! AAPL continues to canabalize the world. I wouldn't touch that one with a 10 foot pole!

 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 03:35 | 2372598 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

i wouldn't touch Google with a 50 foot barge pole... and judging by their crabbing sideways share price for the past year nobody else will either

power on Apple, 'the' class act in tek for a decade

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 03:38 | 2372599 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I wouldn't touch Google either. I'm curious how win*8 and MS are going to do into the end of the year.

  Good Post!

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 04:03 | 2372612 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

It's almost like Apple is more important than food to people like fruits, vegetables, nuts and wienies.   Whatever.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 04:32 | 2372623 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Most of Apples sales are international. Asians are not buying Apple products with foodstamps although one guy sold his kidney to get an iPad.

Asians for the most part live in compact apartments and don't have the room for lots of clutter and junk. That is why they are focused on high end and prestige consumer goods. They always have been. Luxury goods and jewelry sales have always been concentrated in Asia. Just as an example, men are obsessed with collecting limited edition watches and women regularly trade up on handbags.

So it is not surprising that Asians, now primarily Chinese, are going ape shit over retinal screens and iPhone models etc. Apple is in the right place at the right time. It could have been someone else, but it's not. BTW, they are also obsessed with digital photography so the retinal screens are a big deal to them.

The rubes in the market have no clue as to what is really behind Apple. This was confirmed in the past ten days.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 06:07 | 2372689 economicmorphine
economicmorphine's picture

Stereotype much?  You forgot the part about Asians and rice.  Seriously, Dude.  By all the AAPL you want.  We'll see who's smart next year at this time, or sooner.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 06:18 | 2372701 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

Buying AAPL now is like upgrading from 2nd class to 1st class.....on the titanic.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 06:19 | 2372702 falak pema
falak pema's picture

reposted from previous post : 


Apple has now gone hegemonical thanks to its I-pod success that launched it into the music niche. Subsequent launches of i-phone and i-pad, were enormous successes. I-pad has been niche marketd NOT to cannibalise its Macpro books which allow full text capability. 

But what Apple is now aiming at is extending into multi-media hegemony by going into closed loop TV and closed loop "domotic" services whereby the home electronic-digital revolution will make it service provider into this new personal eco-system market.

Its a much more ambitious plan than what you refer to; and what is ominous is that it is CLOSED CIRCUIT; in terms of technology. 

It is debatable that a civilization that puts a market value on a company like Apple as #1 on the stock exchange, is barking up the wrong tree. Our major conundrum is basic human needs in this current century : food, water, air, energy; not I-pads. Not paranoid culture of uber-alles profit generation inventions on non essential stuff. 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 06:15 | 2372697 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Tulips

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 03:06 | 2372580 Yamaha
Yamaha's picture

Maybe Egan Jones will upgrade..........

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 03:26 | 2372592 jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

http://youtu.be/WIXg9KUiy00

 

suck it on an annversary.  bitchez

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 03:33 | 2372595 Dirtt
Dirtt's picture

SB1813.

7 come 11.  Capital controls precede population controls.  Really.  Who gives a fuck about AAPL when the US Government can just suggest you owe taxes so they can confiscate - revoke -  your passport.

No one wants to take on the police unions which lays the ground work for the police state. Except people - law enforcement - have to face their communities. And that is where King George failed to understand the resolve. At what juncture will the dependency on the digital world implode.  Held captive by governments the digital world will go underground and/or just shunned. Neither bodes well for "ongoing concerns."

Chaos and volatility. Everyone reading zerohedge knows this. SB1813 reeks of desperation like Sonny in Dog Day Afternoon. You can't be the good guy and the bad guy. The window in which both coexist is nearly closed. What comes next is anyones guess.

The NYFed can't force people to buy gasoline. Sell in May and go away.  Keep it simple.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 03:51 | 2372601 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Let the Great Market Hysteria recommence...

PEOPLE'S JOBS

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 04:20 | 2372622 falak pema
falak pema's picture

A picture and a MILLION words...you say it all there. The new great Helmsman of humanity. 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 04:25 | 2372626 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

The Chinese translation of his biography is also a hot seller.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 05:53 | 2372678 Death and Gravity
Death and Gravity's picture

It fits well with the Asian reverence for the fatherly figure, head of the family, the master of worldly affairs, Kon-fu-Tzu style.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 06:07 | 2372690 falak pema
falak pema's picture

When you read it you realise that SJ was a true DICTATOR. Take it or leave it, power play all the way. Keeping people in the dark, no top down -bottom up corporate dialogue...wow, quite the opposite to what comes accross on Apple culture in their public shows on Internet which were world wide! It looked so cool and consensual. Big razmataz of US corporate hyperbole.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 06:51 | 2372719 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

This is AWESOME. You should make a poster out of this.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 07:42 | 2372799 duo
duo's picture

Is the figure with the Mao cap supposed to be Obama?  I picked up one of the Obamao T-shirts in Kowloon last fall.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 05:25 | 2372658 CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

the chinks look white

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 05:51 | 2372676 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

J.W.Pepper?

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 06:16 | 2372698 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

The dude on top looks chinkish sarc

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 03:50 | 2372603 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Apple made a LOT of its money selling in China. What if those numbers are accounting tricks and utter bullshit? Those numbers are hard to verify.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 03:54 | 2372605 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I see it first hand every day. Most of them buy in Hong Kong where the Apple stores and resellers are swamped.

And no one should be surprised here because I have been making this simple observation quietly for months.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 03:55 | 2372608 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Verify this ( HSBC) China CPI and PPI numbers. Just having a little fun. I agree.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 04:13 | 2372615 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I wouldn't touch the accuracy of those with a ten foot chop stick.

Seriously, there are obviously some very smart people running the finances and managing market perception at Apple. But that is not the obsession of management there. They are obsessed with product innovation, commercialization, delivery and performance and for the time being they still believe they can do things their way.

I would say the time to dump Apple would be the day they decde to do what everyone else thinks they should do to protect the share price. I don't see that happening anytime soon. But they are not impervious to it either human nature being what it is.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 06:58 | 2372723 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Apple has almost 30 years of experience in successfully integrating hardware, software, user interface, and industrial design. Most tech companies are lucky to get 2 out of those 4 right.

There is a reason that Apple customer loyalty is what it is. Apple Haterz just don't seem to grasp it.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:41 | 2372890 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Fuck Apple... and yes I'm hatin'.... hatin' on this fake ass economy supposedly being driven by one FUCKING company that produces its wares in sweatshops overseas bringing no REAL bottom line benefits to broke ass Americans....can u buy Ishit with food stamp debt cards??????????????

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 03:51 | 2372604 Starving Artist
Starving Artist's picture

AAPL market cap up $40.6 bn after hours, seems like a totally rational, healthy market.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 04:01 | 2372614 GernB
GernB's picture

Maybe Apple should just buy some central banks and then all our worries will be over.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 04:28 | 2372628 zhandax
zhandax's picture

Hell, ours is alternately for sale or for rent cheap.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 04:18 | 2372621 falak pema
falak pema's picture

This is the ultimate product in a one nutted command economy run by Uber-Oligarhs; we all go to heaven thanks to Apple. ...An Apple a day...becomes mantra of new global tech church. 

How simple life becomes when one Maestro, one product, one mindset runs the world.

Wow, Steve can now take over the Vatican of the world economy as the NEW MESSIAH.

All hale, the next Lord of the Heavens! Especially the global markets, 7 billion eager God worshippers of 'An Apple a day...' dogma. 

Halleluiiaaah!

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 04:30 | 2372630 zhandax
zhandax's picture

One minor problem there....he was a no-show on day three.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 05:07 | 2372643 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

It's not apple that carries the world on its shoulder, it is labor and what the planet offers in resources. Since governments and bankers have been able to pervert the market place and perceptions of the real worth of goods and services you have a gadget and the structure around it worth as much as the rest of the whole retail sector. Madness.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 05:18 | 2372650 Fast Twitch
Fast Twitch's picture

With all these positive developments, is there really a need for QE 3?

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 05:35 | 2372661 CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

Did all of QE2 go into AAPL? I really think AAPL is a bubble. It took the U.S. 2 quarters to peak iPhone sales after its debut on Verizon. I expect the same in China and probably sooner since the chinese have a habit of conterfeiting goods. So unless AAPL expands into Africa soon there will be no/declining growth from next year on.

 

I will short from 670

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 05:50 | 2372674 sockratte
sockratte's picture

w/o any new innovations definitely a short.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 05:43 | 2372669 crawl
crawl's picture

I'm looking at the european rallies underway today. Risk on, short covering, optimism everything will be handled by the CBs, Apple stock price making fools out of sellers and shorts for the past number of days.

Crazy stuff. Add in the Fed meeting and conference this afternoon. Mix well. Rally, rally, rally. Senseless optimism runs amok. The only question is whether the US indices make closing highs today or will it take two days.

It's unbelievable the weight Apple stock performance has on the markets overall.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 05:53 | 2372679 CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

AAPL earnings optimism usually fade in 2-3 weeks as evident from last year when the market rallied until second week of may from AAPL earnings.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 07:28 | 2372775 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Yje "market" will hold until the FB IPO is done.

Downhill from there.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 05:49 | 2372672 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Devices that distract from reality and don't produce anything useful.

"Bleep, bleep-bleep".

Perfect for a peak in ape history.

zzzzzz

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 05:50 | 2372675 HD
HD's picture

Those in the know talked Apple down - and the street fell for it. Nothing new under the sun.

 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 07:29 | 2372778 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Yesterday was a bash fest on CNBC.  They kept saying that they would miss earnings based on the Mobil providers numbers.

I know I was long and was scared to death.  Then when it popped I think I sold too soon as I did not want to lose my very nice profit.

But, as they say you cannot lose taking a profit and to leave the last 10% for the next guy.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 05:54 | 2372680 CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

sex is better than using iphone

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 07:17 | 2372753 SimpleandConfused
SimpleandConfused's picture

Finally, someone with their priorities in the correct order!

This latest "market event" reminds me of a song:

God didn't make little green apples and it don't rain in Indianapolis in the summer time.....

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 06:11 | 2372692 CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

and market tops last around 5-months

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 06:14 | 2372694 q99x2
q99x2's picture

England officially is in recession again. FTSE rises on the news.

An asteroid strike would be very positive for equities at this point.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 07:23 | 2372762 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

NASDAQ100 up 55 points in pre-market.  NASDAQ100 was down 15 yesterday to close at 2638.  This looks more like a bounce than a change in trend.

 

Have a look:

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/index/nasdaq/hourly/

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 07:26 | 2372769 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I do not think anyone wins trading Aapl.  Lately they have taken the stock to extremes, up an down.

It kills Shorts and then turns around and kills Longs.  Wonder how many Longs that were over Margined got sold out from the drop.  And in the reverse how many Shorts got sold out from Margin calls on the way up.

I have made some Money trading Aapl but it always has been a gut renching experience.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 07:31 | 2372779 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

they carry no weight of anything on their shoulders. Indeed..."here's your flashlight" for the damsel in distress in your slasher flick. "And Google will follow right through." The beauty of course is that the majority of these folks "are kids who have no idea what they're doing." Here's to them finding the right girl...or even "a girl period"!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=H33vSYapNNs

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 08:30 | 2372867 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Fuck Apple.... BUY SILVER.... Ur ISHIT aint gonna save ur asses from what's a comin....

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 09:15 | 2372996 sojourner_man
sojourner_man's picture

what's the scent of a ...

T U L i P(ad) ... ?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!