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Apple Responsible For 90% Of Intraday NASDAPPLE Gain

Tyler Durden's picture


With AAPL's stock price up another 1.5-2% today, we thought it instructive for all those index traders, hedgers, arbitrageurs, and market prognostictors to comprehend the scale. 90% of the move in the NASDAQ today is directly due to AAPL. Perhaps the drop in iAd sales rates or the drop in market share will dent expectations? Perhaps growth expectations from Europe will temper the excess? Or perhaps the 209 hedgies who rely on this stock for their year will play prisoner's dilemma (and free ride) one too many times and dismiss their recency bias to remember that the first one to migrate wins when prices go vertical.


Charts: Bloomberg


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Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:28 | 2161808 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

don't forget the S&P 500......

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:50 | 2161881 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

The day Apple finally implodes, Nasdaq goes supernova; the collateral incineration will be of a level not seen since the overpriced pyre which ignited in March, 2000. And when I speak of "collateral damage" this is not reserved to OTC-listees or averages only: consider the AAPL fanbase found in the hedge fund community. Apple is the potential Charybdis of the technology ( actually, consumer electronic ) universe -- these modern-day hedge fund "Argonauts," however, will not escape the fury of this maelstrom, once loosed.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:51 | 2161949 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Soccer moms everywhere are asking their husbands why they didn't buy AAPL three years ago.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:55 | 2161968 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And I'd reply, 'Well dear, if youre so smart, why didnt YOU buy Apple 3 years ago then'?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:02 | 2161998 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Then I'd add 'Dont worry, I made a much BETTER trade FOUR years ago which you all laughed at...bought lots of gold at $300', remember?'

'Oh yes...those 'barbaric relics'.... that have gone up 5x.'

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:07 | 2162007 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

Dont worry guys, there is no irrational exuberance here.  In its latest innovative & "outside-the-box" thinking analytical report, CNBC says that the stock market will keep going up because there is an american model on the cover of the SI swimsuit issue

you. just. cant. make. this. shit. up.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:32 | 2162163 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Everytime I see my neighbor's black cat outside my window stocks go up....

....there it is!

Time to double stack testosterone and buy!

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:38 | 2162192 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

i am sure they have accurate statistical evidence.  these people on MSM don't just make things up, us tinfoil guys do.


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:06 | 2162016 Manthong
Manthong's picture

With enough mass, that super nova becomes a black hole. 

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:12 | 2162049 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

-- And do not forget, SheepDog, that not only is gold a barbarous relic, but it is not backed by anything.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:36 | 2162181 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There's an obscure blast from the past reference.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:16 | 2162075 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Because a dollar was worth a lot more 3 years ago and you insisted on getting a new SUV, "dear".

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:09 | 2162030 antidisestablis...
antidisestablishmentarianismishness's picture

Clearly you should be a writer, not a trader.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:49 | 2162173 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I'm your huckleberry.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:12 | 2162046 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

The first hedgie out will be to admit it....they are pretty smart. They did increase Apple shares 11% last quarter.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:14 | 2162063 juicyfruit
juicyfruit's picture

is there not a way to 'save threads" or subscribe in the ZH blog? love the site, always have...but always have a hard time finding older threads and such......its like arolodex with new pages coming onall the time and  past 1-2 days the older pages get tossed.( in terms of easiness to find)

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 13:00 | 2162283 TarzanNe1
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The easiest way I found is to reply to a post and then go through my posts in "my account"

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:28 | 2161815 dr_teeth
dr_teeth's picture

or not

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:31 | 2161817 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Nothing screams conviction buy like the theatre of the absurd trade going on at Apple.  Prepare for that name to finally take its bow.

Nothing is more important than entirely redundant, and sometimes utterly useless, technology devices built by Chinese slaves that often take their bows from the top of their dormitory buildings. 

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:31 | 2161831 qussl3
qussl3's picture

I live in Asia, and the fruit is crazy strong here.

We herd better.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:37 | 2161880 Cdad
Cdad's picture

In other retail news, closing 200 stores is the new Killin' It at Abercrombie & Fitch.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:09 | 2162028 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Assless jeans FTW!

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 13:23 | 2162404 Cdad
Cdad's picture

In other micro economic news your won't hear on the it tries to perpetuate non stop bailout bliss:

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:42 | 2161907 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

America continues to consume like slaves so is there any difference? Consumption Gulag.

Chimerica has really worked out well, I mean for China. Happy marriage. The divorce will be ugly.

Now what were we talking about? Oh, yeah Apple, corporate take-over almost complete.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:54 | 2161961 Cdad
Cdad's picture

And here comes that Apple bow now...

Good luck, 2&20 space cadets!  It is going to be a very thrilling ride down.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:28 | 2161818 EyeQ
EyeQ's picture

NASDAQ has been renamed iNASDAQ.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:33 | 2161854 juicyfruit
juicyfruit's picture

lol....icontrol of imarket, i-idiots

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:17 | 2162079 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:21 | 2162103 money badger
money badger's picture


I think you're on to something there. Working from the outside in, the message is clear:  if your iQ is NADA, make an "S" of yourself by going long..........

money badger don't care


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:30 | 2161826 Racer
Racer's picture

Should it not be called the NAAPPLE now?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:38 | 2161887 machineh
machineh's picture

NAZCRAPPLE has a certain ring to it.

AAPL 500 = Nasdaq 5000


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:31 | 2161836 The Axe
The Axe's picture

My I cant stand to hear another word about AAPl meter just went off......fucking short 1000 AAPL ....

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:41 | 2161903 Hansel
Hansel's picture

If AAPL was priced at CRM's P/E, AAPL would be worth $309,934 per share.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:41 | 2161906 machineh
machineh's picture

iPuke ... iShort you AAPL long time!

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:32 | 2161840 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Lots of strong stocks today besides Apple.

Foot Locker, Lululemom, Chipotle, Ulta Salons, and a plethora of other consumer discretionary names are making lifetime highs today.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:36 | 2161872 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Oh boy... all the old jokerz are back! Time to BUY!!!

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:48 | 2161939 adr
adr's picture

Ohhh look at all those companies that toss the books on a flatop and serve them up extra crispy. I sell to Foot Locker. I can tell you any real audit would make the games played at Diamond foods look like child's play. That corporation's books are better fiction than Harry Potter.

Real retial sales for January fell off a cliff. Nobody is actually buying, nobody is actually ordering. I wish you knew better that what Wall Street says, and the paper coming from the boards, exist in a different dimension from reality. Sadly you do not because your existence is in the same fantasy realm as the rest of the Street.

Lulu is a total scam. They don't actually sell 10% of what they claim. Ask a store manager what the average daily take is. It won't be anywhere near the $25k a day it would take to generate the claimed sales.

Just like Dick's. Do you really think every store sells $35k a day to actual customers?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:53 | 2161956 pods
pods's picture

"Consumer discretionary"  Haha.

Nothing but iphones and designer rubbers in the future of the USSA.

Wake me up when Alpo is included in the discretionary group.  Or maybe a hybrid:

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:57 | 2161975 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And just think Robo, YOU dont actually own ANY of em, you fanboy ass hat!

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:03 | 2162000 Ahwooga
Ahwooga's picture

We can all read the ticker too. Thanks for the constructive input dipshit.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:18 | 2162084 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Oh's got its head stuck in the bucket again.


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:32 | 2161842 MiddleageThinni...
MiddleageThinninghair's picture

To me the AAPL graph looks similar to gold's chart.

I wonder if this ramp up spike from the trend will be sustained?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:32 | 2161844 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

First one out gets the best price.  As soon as one sells everyone else does also.

Kind of like a game of Chicken.  Except here the first one to stop is the one that does not go over the Cliff.


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:33 | 2161856 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

iPhony Market. Bullish.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:35 | 2161864 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The ensuing cock fight between Google and Apple (Apple just sued Google over the Galaxy Nexus due to "patents") is only going to stifle this country's ability for small entrepreneurs to build business that are both good for consumers AND workers IN THIS COUNTRY.

Hell, even computer companies in China are trying to stop Apple from raping their sector of workers and ideas, and the government may even halt the export/import of the new iPad 3 coming out soon.


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:35 | 2161866 AU5K
AU5K's picture

Time for a new rumor on Greece to pump up the market???

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:33 | 2162166 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Check back around 3:30.

It's a bit early.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:36 | 2161871 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

The airforce just ordered a boat load of ipads.  What we need now is an ipad for every public school student to send this baby into the stratosphere.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:37 | 2161874 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Yawn.  Wake me up when AAPL is $600 so I can sell.  What, something about Greece?  So what...

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:41 | 2161905 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

When this one rolls over it's going to leave hedge funds strewn all over the place.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:00 | 2161984 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Good luck finding someone to sell to in that 1-sided Apple cult 'trade'....LMFAO the big joke is on you Apple minion dorks.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:38 | 2161882 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Almost makes you wonder with the rise in the Debt Ceiling if Bernanke does not own most of Aapl.  We all know he loves the high rollers.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:38 | 2161884 adr
adr's picture

Apple will be $600 by next week at this rate. Again I say, what happens if they don't announce a dividend or stock split? Maybe they can do a 7:1 split and then every person on the planet can buy 1 share of Apple so everyone can retire rich!!!!


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:40 | 2161898 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

It appears that they have been using Aapl to hold the Market up but what happens when Aapl corrects.  It will take the whole market down with it.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:31 | 2162150 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

IBM also regarding the dow.  and mcd's doesn't do so bad either.  or bac. 


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:38 | 2162193 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

What happened to the NASDAQ lowering its weighting in AAPL?  I thought that was going to happen soon.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:40 | 2161902 Narrow Ledge
Narrow Ledge's picture

You don't have NDX enabled for point moves!!!  This is totally wrong. I know what you're saying and AAPL is prob a ton of today's action BUT this is wrong since index points your'e referencing is not enabled!

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:43 | 2161918 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Sorry, I don't own AAPL.  Doesn't pay any dividends.  I totally missed it, I must admit it.  But I wouldn't be shorting it either, it might be the next QCOM of 1999 - 2000 fame.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:47 | 2161935 juicyfruit
juicyfruit's picture

time to ishort.......everybody is on the same side of the boat on apple.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:11 | 2161977 juicyfruit
juicyfruit's picture

ishort placed at $524.55

feels like any shorts that were in Apple  just puked and capitualted.

when robot trader says to "not short", it's time to short the bejesus out of it.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:11 | 2162039 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And the funny thing is, Apple has to be the most 1-sided trade ever... the only ones really interested at all in Apple shares are the present shareholders, theres no one to sell to. 

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:34 | 2162170 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yeah, the PPT doesn't generally care to sell things.  Unless it is politically expedient, of course.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 14:50 | 2162809 juicyfruit
juicyfruit's picture

i-short side of Apple working good so far.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:56 | 2161970 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Getting very tempting when considering this is now a 480 billion plus market cap. Any failure at this point in execution is going to be epic. Looking for the island reversal.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 13:51 | 2162515 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

robottrader -

question: do you think qcom could enhance its value with a buyout of idcc and control 3G,4G, 5G,...nth^ - spectrum-space totally, vaulting qcom, as the "800 lb. gorilla" - greatest ip company of the spectrum universe for the next 20 years

just thinking aloud


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:45 | 2161925 death_to_fed_tyranny
death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

Soon the sheeple will have to figure a way to eat those ipads! Curry? Chili? Duck Sauce?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:29 | 2162143 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

ny fed publishs a recipe book.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:45 | 2161928 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

apple quickly approaching that oh so outrageous trailing pe ratio of 15, 100b in cash, forward pe of almost, look out...gulp....11.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:46 | 2161930 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Reggie still short AAPL?  

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:50 | 2161941 taniquetil
taniquetil's picture

Oh man, I just read the LightSquared news on Bloomberg.


Tyler, when can we expect a snarky article?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:52 | 2161954 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

That LightSquared news is pretty disastrous.  Phil will be probably need to join the "crack team" at Deutsche Bank after a brief hiatus to pay Lisa's bills from now on.  

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:50 | 2161943 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

Is this unprecedented, having one stock command an entire, rather large, sample? What does that say to risk if it actually was measured here? (Is there a gauge for risk in this case?)

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:51 | 2161946 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Time for another reweighting of the index.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:51 | 2161948 adr
adr's picture

Tonight we're gonna party like its 1999!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:56 | 2161974 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I have grown to understand the Apple.  The Apple consumer holds the product in such a high regard that it is as if the product is more important than life itself.  I have had friends chastise me for touching their computers.  I have seen the look in their eye when I walk up to them and start pressing buttons.  It's as if I was molesting their baby.

We live in a strange world, and the people are strange too.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:32 | 2162061 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You aren't kidding. My wife got an ipad as a gift from work. She has never been a big techno geek like me. Well I have only been able to touch it once since she got it in December (kind like sex). It is really weird to see her so attached to it.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:37 | 2162188 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Soon people will have them graft into their forearms and they will think it is the bee's knees.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:59 | 2161981 DavidC
DavidC's picture

"When prices go vertical"...

You mean like today?!


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:06 | 2162013 chinaboy
chinaboy's picture

Apple a day, NASDAQ 8000 not too far away. Go party, Ms. Houston.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:11 | 2162036 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Apple has got to be responsible for about 25% of the nasdaq volume as well as of late.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:11 | 2162042 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Somebody has been getting their ass squeezed out over the past few days. They'll be sorry to see that they had the right call but they were to soon to the game.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:12 | 2162044 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

What happens if a 4:1 split is announced?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:15 | 2162068 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Apple will never split Robo.  Just like Google.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:18 | 2162087 juicyfruit
juicyfruit's picture

the stock gets split 4 to is that question?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:21 | 2162098 The Axe
The Axe's picture

not going to happen

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:34 | 2162174 overbet
overbet's picture

If a split is announced in a stock like AAPL it will rip hard. Buy it all in and hold on til the split is effective. This move is related to a split or special dividend IMO. Splits of stocks like AAPL (loved stocks) go straight up when the split is announced. Some recent examples are LULU and BRK.B

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:35 | 2162178 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Soccer moms everywhere buy it and institutional traders sell it.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:16 | 2162073 Bullframe
Bullframe's picture

So let me get this straight...

- AAPL has the highest amount of hedge funds invested

- AAPL is responsible for the rise in tech-sector, if they did not exist tech would be down bigtime

- AAPL is partly responsible for the rise in NASDAQ, S&P…

- AAPL only sells trends

So if AAPL misses an earnings target the stock will go down big time. It is very probable that they only miss a target when consumer spending is down the drain thus partly meaning the other holdings from hedge funds will be down to.

And let the sell-off commence.

How big of a bubble is AAPL? (I know.. bubbles are there to make moneyJ)
A miss from AAPL could be a good starter for the supernova collapse. 

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:46 | 2162216 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

and this happened like two quarters ago before the 4s went on sale

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:24 | 2162119 Gobsmacked
Gobsmacked's picture

no it doesnt. thats the point change of the name. whatever bloomberg you are using doesnt have access to index weightings hence the "N.A." under Index points.

jesus christ.


(and i didnt read all the comments if it that was already pointed out or corrected)

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 17:19 | 2163518 anonimo13
anonimo13's picture

It's true. In fact nasdaq 100 index is a capitalization-weighted index and today AAPL has about 10% weight.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 01:01 | 2164903 Artful Dodger
Artful Dodger's picture

I like that you're on topic. Nobody else has mentioned it.

The screenshot makes no sense to me either. An absolute change in the index of +10.80 over 2586-10.80 is highlighted as comparable to an absolute change in a stock price of +9.37 over 519-9.37....?

Apparently AAPL is 12.3% of the NASD 100 (as of April 2011 rebalancing?). If it's up 1.8% per the screenshot, then the index would be up 0.2214%, or 5.7 points, all else equal. Thus I get around 53% of the index gain attributable to Apple. If I've made an error, pls point it out.

However, it is notable that one company contributes more points to the index change than the other 99 combined.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:35 | 2162177 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Apple to buy Greece.  iGreece.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:42 | 2162200 juicyfruit
juicyfruit's picture

you have it backwards...Greece to buy Apple !!!!!!!!!!......come on, with the shannigans going on in the world now, one has to think in reverse to make sense of things.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:43 | 2162203 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

This looks like more and more like 1999 - 2000. We all remember what happened after.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 13:30 | 2162441 falak pema
falak pema's picture

general rule about overcrowding : you become your own enemy.

Good Example : 1174. The Sicilian NAvy attacked Alexandria to make its own play, under Norman King William II, in great crusader game against Saladin's Egypt. They landed with 280 boats in Alexandria's protected port. No Saracen boats came out to challenge them. The attack was a total failure inspite of no naval challenge.

Why? Too much congestion in the port! They couldn't get the Mangonels out to attack the walls of city. WHen they did they couldn't deploy the men de defend them. They were sitting ducks, their mangonels on shore got burnt while 50000 soldiers looked on helpless as they couldn't land on ground in that congested place. Their own boats were their stumbling blocks. After one week the 50000 man army abandoned all material and burnt boats and left for home!

They beat themselves in their own overkill, leading to congestion and no room to move!

If the stampede to Aapl stock goes viral, watch out for the congestion and lack of space when it saturates at the top!

Keep you retreat lines open. 


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 13:38 | 2162463 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Said it last year (go through my posts), AAPL will cross $625. 

It was on one of Shill-master-middleton's worthless predictions about GOOG cold fusion and diminishing AAPL margins.  Joke of the year, Reggie -- I see right through you.

Hell I might have to revise if AAPL keeps floating like a McDonalds turd.

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