AppleSoft: Is It Different This Time?

Tyler Durden's picture

With Apple overtaking Microsoft's 'peak-market-cap' and becoming the most 'valuable' company ever traded, we thought a reflection on what humans (as opposed to machines programmed by humans) did the last time a world-changing technology company went ubiquitous.

Comparing AAPL's last few years to the run-up in MSFT's peak in 1999...


Charts: Bloomberg

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ZippyBananaPants's picture

Oh Boy, let him speak freely and he puts his foot in his mouth big time.  

When you run for president your life should be an open book.  oopsie, uh, uh, on some things, uh, uh,

What an asshat!! 


alien-IQ's picture

When there is a company that threatens AAPL as much as AAPL threatened MSFT, then (and only then) will this chart be applicable.

PS: and NO Reggie...GOOG ain't that company.

Dr. Engali's picture

Apple was not a threat to Microsoft at that point in time. And you might want to take a look at Android's climbing market share. If you want to dismiss that then you are ignoring reality.

alien-IQ's picture

You can't seriously be claiming that AAPL did not take a big slice of the market share from MSFT can you?

Remember...AAPL was, first and foremost (and to anyone that is not a 16 year old girl), a computer company.

Spitzer's picture

Microsoft's growth stage ended, and the tech bubble burst. Had nothing to do with Apple.

Apples growth stage will end and it will go into utility mode like Sony, Toshiba et al

Vegamma's picture

While I enjoy poking fun at AAPL stock zealots, there is a meaingfull difference here. MSFT was trading at a huge P/E (around 40?) with 10UST at 6%. Investors had priced in huge earnings growth. AAPL's P/E is 16 with a sub 2% UST10.

Spitzer's picture

I'm not sure what a random bond market bubble has to do with it ...

Do you have the corresponding price of Florida condos for the said times too ???

Vegamma's picture

The bond market bubble means you can't earn 6% buying UST10s today. Need me to slow it down even more?

Dr. Engali's picture

In 1999 Apple was barely even a blip on the screen. You might want to revisit your history and time frames. It wasn't until after the tech crash and into 03 when apple started to gain serious attention. Before then they were always a company on the cusp.

mr1963's picture

Global government antitrust lawsuits were a contributing factor in MSFT decline. Anyone still using "netscape?"

CommunityStandard's picture

Anyone still using Internet Explorer?  Nobody would have cared about their monopoly if their product was the best and most secure.

mpman001's picture

Anyone still using "netscape?"'s called Firefox (Mozilla) ;)

alien-IQ's picture

They may not have been a blip on the screen in your world but where I was working in those years, entertainment and film production, they were far more than a blip. We saw what was coming and many many people I know bought stock in those early years...and yes...they are all quite quite happy with their choice.

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

To everybody:

Unless you've owned a shit ton of Apple stock and have made a ton of money you might as well shut the fuck up.  Because all of you douche bags that weren't smart enought to own it all of these years are now smart enough to call its demise.  It's pathetic and if it wasn't so sad it would be hilarious.

Junk away idiots.  You've looked like fools for years now but carry on.

chistletoe's picture

yeah.  dumb me.  did not buy apple.  bought gold and oil instead.  how silly.

alien-IQ's picture

Yeah...because AAPL stock hasn't risen at all in the last 15 years.

Dr. Engali's picture

Some of us made a ton of fiat on Apple and still believe it will meet the same fate as many of it's predeccesors.

resurger's picture

i didnt junk, i had enuff trolls with you over AAPL.

So when is AAPL going to top since you are an AAPL expert?

The trend is your friend's picture

I have taken away the ipads and iphone's from my kids...I just didnt like they way it was going.  They complained for a few weeks but now are reading actual physical books to keep themselves entertained as well as playing outside where they can get some actual excersize, not just excersizing their fingers and thumbs. 

FubarNation's picture

I have begun to unplug.  First started when my iphone 4 went for a swim.  Switched to an old motorol F3.  Brought much more peace into my life.  Laptop stays at work now as well.  Life is better.

It sneaks up on you but the more techology I added to my life the more the quality of my life went down the shitter.


This most likely won't be a massive trend for the masses but If so watch out APPL.


Dr. Richard Head's picture

AAPL has allowed for this poo throwing monkey to make music again.  Not good music, but music nonetheless.  My 3 year old is learning math and the alphabet on it.  Polus, I get to read ZH on my huge Samsun through AppleTV, as well as catch up on all of my YouTube subscription news. 

These products are tools.  Tools for learning and productivity or tools of entertainment and zombie making.  The choice is those who control the gadget.

Not that any of this will amtter to stock price, as we all know fundamentals are no longer reflecting reality anyway.

alien-IQ's picture

A tool is only as good as it's user.

The problem isn't the i-phone or i-pad.


vast-dom's picture

double trouble double bubble.

alien-IQ's picture

That could very well be the most brutally butchered Shakespeare quote I've ever seen.

vast-dom's picture

wanton boys torture god flies in two-backed beasts of seem


Withdrawn Sanction's picture

When there is a company that threatens AAPL...

That's one way for the chart to reverse.  Another is simply running out of growth space.  After all, how many iPads, iPhones, and other gadgets does a household need?  Saturation eventually sets in and w/o Steve Jobs around, Apple does not seem to innovate as well and stay as sharply focused (see the mid 90s for proof).

Does that mean I'd short it? least not until the momentum slows.

Dr. Engali's picture

Yes but Apple has a ton of cash, and they are cool ,and they had Steve they have what's his name......nevermind. At least Steve Jobs didn't hang around and become a Bill Gates.

bank guy in Brussels's picture

Plus so many hot chicks like Apple computers ... the 'babe' factor is still holding

Bill Gates is the son of a lawyer in the American political-legal mafia, Bogle Gates law firm ... as with so many American wealthy people, there are roots in the US political crook class that was a key part of his path to 'success'.

Apple's Steve Jobs started life as an abandoned child. The father of Steve Jobs is a Muslim from Syria, Abdulfattah Jandali, born in 1931 and still alive in America today. When Steve was born out of wedlock, the parents of Steve's German-American mother, Joanne Schieble, was not allowed by her parents to marry a Muslim, and Joanne was pushed to give up the baby Steve for adoption, to the couple Paul and Clara Jobs.

Some time after the adoption, Steve's biological parents did marry, and had another child, Steve Jobs' sister, the novelist Mona Simpson (née Jandali).

Though it seems they recently came to know of each other, it appears Steve Jobs and his father never met, Steve feeling abandoned, and Mr Jandali not going to the side of his dying son, or meeting his grandchildren fathered by Steve, because the father was afraid of looking like he was chasing Steve's money.

Article 'iSad in Damascus: Syria reclaims Jobs',
By Sami Moubayed in Asia Times Online yesterday:

flattrader's picture

Steve was the snake oil man.  Woz was the Wiz.

Jobs was nothing more than that...ever.

ToddGak's picture

Sorry, that's just flat ridiculous.  Before Jobs came back to Apple, I believe it was trading in the single digits.  It takes a lot more than snake oil to bring a company from the verge of bankruptcy to the largest market cap company in the world.

Sure, Woz may have been the technical wiz but he receded from the Apple scene a long, long time ago.

Dr. Engali's picture

Yes but he hung around to be a money grubbing population reduction asshole.

Row Well Number 41's picture

Population reduction is inevitable, you can try to do it early now or you can watch them starve.  Check out the chart, and consider what always happens at the end of a curve like this.


Dr. Engali's picture

I'm very familiar with that chart. However I prefer to let nature run its course instead of some rich arrogant pricks determining mankind's future.

Row Well Number 41's picture

If we breed and act like rats we will die like rats. I personally would like to avoid the fate of dumb animals consuming everything in their path, while breeding until there is nothing left to eat except each other. Given a lack of real predators for humans this is our fate unless we act. I would like to avoid the worst of a Soylent world.


Dr. Engali's picture

Nature always restores the balance on way or onther. There is a long history of mass extinctions over the course of time.

Row Well Number 41's picture

I understand that Bill Gates is a money grubbing asshole trying to change his image before he dies. That said, the truth is short of guns and forced sterilization almost anything that reduces population growth, will be better then what is coming on the other side of that curve.

I don't like to see even stupid animals suffer unnecessarily.


Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Population reduction is inevitable,

Are you volunteering?

monad's picture

His name is Tim Cook and he's been running Apple for years. What great things have you done, that you imagine you can insult Bill Gates and not be regarded an uptight, insecure, bitter loser, Dr. Suess?

Dr. Engali's picture

I guess if you define uptight bitter loser as a happily married father of three middle class man who holds personal integrity and human dignity in high regards you would be right. However if you think that I am envious of a person that made billions by stealing and marketing another person's product, and who now looks for ways to reduce population under the guise of "helping humanity" then you are sorely mistaken. That my arrogant friend is not great in my eyes. You may admire that and think it's great but I don't.

monad's picture

I'm arrogant? You're ungrateful. Gates, Ballmer, Woz, Cook, and all the rest who contributed the entrepreneurial and technical genius that frees up your precious time, which you actually waste using their technology to insult them here, behind their backs. You said it yourself: you made loads of fiat off AAPL. Do you think Jobs really needed your 2 bucks? Do you think AAPLs grow on trees? Any success you gleaned off their work is predicated on their work and their success; you wouldn't have invested with the real cronies, and you know it. These very successful men that you insult specifically because they are successful, are the symbols of civilized people working and living together. Life isn't fair, and they aren't responsible for this inconvenience. Surely you aren't counting on the government to save you? Or Jesus? I respect these men, who have given me so much opportunity and charged me so little.

Bill Gates doesn't need to help anyone, but he does. If you think this is a pose you have to explain it. If you think he's doing it wrong, write to him. I'm sure he's open to self improvement. If you can do better, do it. Otherwise your derogatory remarks about him and other independents spending their own money, based on second hand rumors from his adversaries and even less credible sources, reflect only yourself, and what you present is self centered & somewhat negative.

Dr. Engali's picture

I don't insult them because they are successful. I applaud innovative entrepreneurs( which Bill Gates isn't. He's little more than a high tech thief ) and I am happy for the creative products that came from Apple. I never had anything bad to say about Steve Jobs or any of Apple's team.And if they make billions I'm glad they can do that too.That's the beauty of real capitalism. What I don't like is some arrogant prick pretending like they are trying to help mankind when their actions speak differently. Maybe you just overlook the fact that Bill Gates himself said we could lower the population by about 10 to 15 percent through vaccines, healthcare, and reproductive services. Or maybe you're okay with it since it seems you worship the ground upon which he walks. I for one do not. I don't wait for government and I don't wait for the likes of him to take care of me.

“The world today has 6.8 billion people”, said Gates, “that’s headed up to about 9 billion. Now if we do a really great job on new vaccines, health care, reproductive health services, we could lower that by perhaps 10 or 15 percent.”
~Bill Gates~ Davos 2010

monad's picture

I suppose you think lowering the population by Global Thermonuclear War is a better solution? What do you think is going to happen when TSHF? He has children too. Maybe he wants them to have a better life.

If you had been following this you would know that BG has been studying poverty and overpopulation for over a decade. Other than the 3rd world is a tragedy, he found an inverse corelation between standard of living and birthrates: people who have living wage jobs & support their own children only have as many children as they can afford, whereas regions having high deathrates have equally high birth rates and the misery index is supernova. You could say, TV + couch = birth control + anesthesia. You could also say the motherfucking political church scams feed people who are on the edge of starvation if they don't use birth control, to increase the head count and make more hell on earth.

Do you really think introducing Planned Parenthood with standard of living incentives is a bad thing? Its sure better than what these children are facing now. Currently there are about 24 million SLAVES in the worlds. Thats right, 24 MILLION SLAVES. Plus child prostitutes, servants, laborers and whats for dinner, honey?

Bill Gates is a very decent man. I repeat: he doesn't have to do anything for anyone. Look how many who could, don't. Need is never a legitimate claim to demand the fruits of labor, to tax, which is to to enslave another person. Ever. I respect Bill Gates. When I think of arrogant pricks pretending they are trying to help mankind, I think of the Pope, City of London, Israel, Al Gore, Bushs, Clintons, Joe Biden and the legion of 'public servants' who have become incredibly wealthy while ruining my country and never having actually produced anything of value. When I think of Bill Gates, I think of all the business machines running Microsoft operating systems and all the desktops running Office, connected to the internet, which I regard as a target rich opportunity to make money and add value. I think of the abuse he and Microsoft sustained at the hands of the SEC and the rest of the parasites; you can viddy it all again on yt.

I strongly encourage you to check your sources. Mr. Bill has pissed off alot of powerful assholes and they are as good as Rupert Psyop Murdoch at spinning eyeballs and producing fiction for court. If you weren't there, you don't know what happened. Trust noone. DYOH


malikai's picture

Blow-off top. Coming to a theatre near you!

Matt's picture

So, what this article is saying is, there is at least 20 percent more to the upside?

aint no fortunate son's picture

But we have to remember that Bennie & the Algos hadn't taken over the markets in 2000 when softie was peaking, or that the world's central planners have now banned down days in the markets in perpetuity. THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT - we live in a new golden age!

flattrader's picture

Greenspan was pumping money into the system ahead of a potential y2k meltdown the way a sailor on cinderalla liberty pumps a $200 hooker...(or whatever the going rate is...)

He was flooding the market with liquidity just in case.  I remember it well.

Look at the NAZ run up in the late, late part of the year...and it commenced crashing back to earth in January 2000.

That explains MSFT $120.