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From The Archives - Bunker Hunt And 'Silver Thursday'

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back in May of last year, just after the now historic silver slamdown of "Silver Sunday" on May 1, 2011, when the metal imploded by nearly 20% in the span of seconds, a move that some considered 'normal', primarily the CFTC, we presented the extended biopic of the infamous "Silverfinger": Bunker Hunt, who attempted to corner the silver market, and succeeded, if only briefly (and they say Playboy has no good articles). Today, courtesy of Grant Williams, we have dredged up the following clip from the archives, which is a 10 minute overview of just how there is really nothing new ever in the silver market, bringing up memories of Silver Thursday, March 27, 1980, and raising questions whether last year the move in precious metals was not due to the same attempt to corner the silver and gold markets as happened 30 years prior. A far more important question perhaps is how was it that tried a redux of the Hunt brothers (and Warren Buffett of course), and when will someone take their place next?

And for those who may not have seen it the first time around, here is a repost of our original article from April 2010, "A Deep Insider's Walkthru To Silver Market Manipulation"

A second whistleblower speaks. As the topic of physical delivery has gained prominent attention recently, it is crucial to complete  the circle and show how this weakest link in the PM market is (ab)used by the big boys: Phibro and Warren Buffet. Pay particular attention to the analogues between the methods employed in the 90's commodity market and how the PM (and equity) market is being gamed currently. And to think that each new generation of traders believes it has discovered something new... (All emphasis below is ours)

 


Background

  • As a market maker in silver options from 1989 to 2000 I was present during both the 1994 and 1997 silver events. They were seminal in my education of gamesmanship in trading and how probabilities can come up short.
  • Prior to going out on my own, I traded at a small market making firm. When a trader finished training there, he had top-tier options knowledge but was not educated in whom the players were, the fundamentals of the markets, and how probabilities were useless when information was asymmetric. That wasn’t their business, they taught option’s theory. Since I had drunk the kool-aid, I thought fundamentals and gamesmanship were useless in the face of the almighty Standard Deviation model. That was a mistake. 

Phibro Early Exercise

  • In April 1994, the Thursday before Easter, the trading day ended with a rather unusual run up of 15 cents near the close to finish at 435ish around noon. Options expired that day at 4pm but we weren’t anywhere near the closest strikes (425 and 450) so most of us left. It was a 4 day weekend in the U.S. but silver traded globally, albeit il-liquidly in Asia. Comex wouldn’t open until next Tuesday. My education in gamesmanship started that afternoon at JFK airport as I was waiting for a flight, my first vacation in 5 years.
  • My backer paged me at the airport to inform me that someone was exercising the K 450 calls. I scoffed thinking it was a retail sap that was talked into exercising some 5 lot piece by an overzealous broker. “Great I said, let them, the options are out of the money.”  And I hung up
  • 10 minutes later he had me paged again. “You don’t understand, it’s Phibro exercising.” Again I naively said, “So what, they are energy guys.” But I was curious, “How many? “ I asked. “All of them, five thousand, he replied. Now I was really curious, but still woefully ignorant that it was I who was the sap at the table. “Why would they do that?” and he explained it to me. I nearly shit myself and bent over in the cab vomiting on the ride back.
  • Cancelling my trip, I headed back to the office to assess the reality of what would happen, probabilities were no longer important.  Survival was important.  I had no money and was trading on a $25k note lent to me by my backer.
  • We covered by buying futures on my entire short open Interest equivalent of EXPIRED OUT OF THE MONEY OPTIONS in Singapore with a dealing firm.  We did this prior to even actually knowing if I was exercised, probabilities be damned. How did I know they exercised? The price covered at was $462; that is how. The 450s were already in the money by 12 cents.
  • Phibro exercised all 5k lots. I had a fraction of that but big enough to be carried out on a stretcher had the rest of my position not bailed me out/ performed on Tuesday next week.
  • The weird part was, the market stabilized that Tuesday and did not run to “infinity” as it could easily have. We found out later it was because Phibro’s exercise was a no-no and Warren Buffet ordered them to shut the trade down as it was too big of a potential scandal. Especially in light of his coming to Solly’s rescue and lending his good name to fix their most recent Treasury scandal. A couple head’s rolled there if I remember correctly.
  • My guess was that the client was a Buffet or Soros type. Someone that would only go to Phibro, as these guys were the best at preventing information leakage, and always aligned themselves with client interests, where as if IB had an order  and acted in dual capacity as a dealer, he would potentially front-run the order or stop it out poorly on an exit. Phibro didn’t take other side of their client’s orders. They ran with them, and took care of the clients first.
  • Phibro got a big order for a client to buy silver, one that had to be handled expertly, and filled over time, no information leakage would be tolerated.  These guys were a prop desk that took orders as brokers once in a while.
  • They accumulated options for their own account (K 450C) to piggyback but not front-run the client.
  • They must have bought futures for themselves as well as the client with his permission.
  • They beat the VWAP by gunning the market on light volumes 1 hour before a 4 day US holiday. [TD: compare and contrast with the daily patterns seen every single day in the endless move up in the S&P]
  • They exercised the 450 Calls that day and then lifted the offers of the 1 or 2 OTC metals dealers left open during Singapore hours, running them over during illiquid markets.

Never Again!

  • I became infatuated with Phibro gamesmanship and made it a point to understand that particular type of player.
  • Libertarian Darwinist that I was I did not blame them. At the time It was a buyer-beware market for big businesses and they did nothing wrong. They took risk and they aren’t bigger than the market. I wanted to play with the big boys, and that was the price.
  • For me it was about learning how to read the signs and not be on the wrong side of one of those events again, even if I was not privy to their meetings.

Here is some of what I learned:

  • In metals (and energy and anything else with an OTC market) the IB firms have dealing desks along GS, MS, Republic, JPMorgan, Scotia Mocatta, all were essentially broker dealers in precious metals. All had clients: miners who hedged production and hedge funds who speculated OTC. They provided liquidity by taking the other side of their client’s trade and “back-to-backing” them in the futures markets or held onto them in their prop books as counterparty because of something else they saw.
  • Their client left resting orders with them in the IB’s Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) which served as good information to trade around for the IB. Sometimes they front-ran the client, other times they go for stops to force the client to puke. Sometimes they’d just make markets, depending on many things. It was poker to them.
  • Phibro was different. These were smart guys but they weren’t a dealing bank. They exploited imbalances in markets and took positions.  They had ideas. They also took orders for heavyweights who needed absolute discretion. They did not make it their business to fleece their own clients and instead aligned their interests. And they made the banks look like pikers when a client came to them with an order.
  • For the next 4 Years I paid attention to how those dealing banks and phibro played the markets. It was all about gamesmanship, Bayesian probability, and knowing your counterparty’s motivation with these guys. Information and misinformation.

Some methods:

  • How I.B firms would use a thinly traded floor to print the price that would trigger a massive stop loss in the OTC markets and bury their own clients.  Or how they would buy for their own accounts in front of resting limit orders for clients and simply use their clients to stop themselves out if the market printed thru their buy levels.  Or how they would use dual representation to show loudly they were buyers on one side of the ring, while they were selling quietly upstairs to other OTC dealers.  Trading with themselves in multiple entities, etc.
  • An IB with a Commodity Index was in heaven. Prop trading, captive client flow from IB deals and OTC dealing and Brokerage. The good ones knew how to integrate and hedge macro risks, whether to front run their own index clients or get out off their way.  “Chinese walls” did not exist in Commods.
  • Commods were mostly self regulated and that lead to predatory yet mostly legal behaviour. 
  • Some of these were necessary to protect their interests with such a small number of players. Some were possibly unethical, but most were legal. Their clients were all big boys who left resting orders with the IBs at their own risk. Clients themselves had to resort to some of the same tricks to keep the IB desks honest, like Coming in backwards, “spoofing”, leaving buy stops to get sell orders filled. The alternative for these clients was to put massive orders in the floor where liquidity was subjective, non continuous and information leakage was massive.

1997- Warren Buffet.

  • I got my chance to not get run over in 1997, when Warren Buffet gave an order to Phibro to buy silver.
  • Short version. Here is what went down.
  • Buffet gives Phibro the order- fact
  • Phibro begins filling it as a broker using various OTC dealers as counterparties, and letting the I.B dealers sweat getting out of the risk. - fact
  • Phibro buys options for their own account (no exercise game this time tho)- fact
  • Phibro buys futures for their own account. – not confirmed.
  • One by one the IB dealers start to catch on that this is no ordinary order Phibro is handling. They back away and liquidity gets harder to find.- fact
  • Other bigger hedge funds in the small circle of professionals, and other smart firms start getting long.- fact
  • Silver starts getting delivered from the Comex vaults. Some of it actually removed. Some of it just “covered with a sheet” for removal. But ounces begin to be removed from the warehouse. Phibro was rumored to be taking delivery and beginning to telegraph fear in the markets to start spoofing the VWAP. Rumor was they had a warehouse in Red Hook where they stored it.  Never confirmed.
  • Point here is, the saps for the last part of this play were the producers and refiners who were complacently net short and dependent on above ground silver to satisfy delivery requests.
  • Producers had been over-hedging for years in this market, as silver was cheap and they had business cash flow issues. It was their habit to sell forward production not yet available to them. And if forced to, they would lease already above ground silver and make delivery, collateralizing it with silver yet to be mined. Their positions were habitually synthetically long the contango as they rolled their deliverable production further and further out the curve in an attempt to squeeze much needed cash (cost of carry)for their businesses. The net effect was that sometimes they had to borrow silver for prompt delivery while they rolled their production hedge back further. – my interpretation of what I learned. May not be accurate to the “T”, am not a physical guy.
  • Example: in 1995 a miner has silver due above ground in 1997. He hedges it in Z-1997 contract.  Z 1997 comes and if he doesn’t have that silver available for some other reason; he covers the short and rolls it back. How much he needs to do this is a function of his obligations, cash flows, and his greed for carry. If leases are cheap, he will seek to capture all the contango and lease it until he gets the silver available.
  • If lease rates go up, it is not unlike a miner strike. Silver is needed for delivery now, and term risk becomes the issue. Contango collapses and market goes backwardated. He will be forced to sell the contango to get that prompt silver short back if he cannot make delivery. He has to defer delivery.
  • These guys were dependent on the specs NOT taking delivery for years. Specs didn’t have balance sheets to take and store physical metal. Specs usually were the weak hands at futures expiry.
  • But then…..Entities that stored silver in bank vaults (like the Republic vault) begin to remove silver from the available pool for leasing. This made the “easy money” portion of production financing no longer easy.  Think: smart money getting the word that a squeeze was on and playing along with it.
  • Phibro (and others) start selling the contango in the futures market to prepare to take delivery of even more contracts. Or at least put pressure on the producers who had front month shorts they would have to make a decision on delivering. Phibro KNEW that the producers had to sell the spreads to get their shorts back. But they couldn’t lift their shorts altogether as part of their financing deals with their bankers. Their own positions were now breaking down in every way except flat price. The market really didn’t move much. This let them stay in denial.
  • Buffet announces he is long and intends to take delivery of silver. Contango collapses. Market spikes to 7.40.
  • Rumor is gov’t intercedes and asks Buffet to not do this, it would break the industry. (Kind of like how the exchange begged the gov’t to help it shut down the Hunt Bros.)  He says ok, and agrees to lend then their silver back to them. Essentially charging them 40% interest to delay delivery for a year

What to look for:

  • Find the overleveraged/ extended party- and you will find the weak hand at the table. (Producers in 1997)
  • Tail wags dog: if the pricing venue trades smaller volume than the OTC, then manipulate price with small volumes to execute trades with big volumes favorably.  (OTC vs Comex floor)
  • Divide and conquer- if counterparties are undercapitalized and/ or fragmented, then it will be easier to get them to move like a herd.  (happens in options ALL THE TIME at expiration)
  • Manipulate data- take delivery of metal, take risk off books, manipulate MTM data.
  • Create an exit strategy- a good catalyst like Easter weekend, an announcement by an investor etc.  or develop a market and grow your own bigger fool. ie – retail.

Comments - So many points to make here:

  • How derivative markets can create a problem thru too much liquidity that cannot easily be reconciled by bringing physical production on line fast enough.
  • How this works both ways, and that dealing banks have been playing the gold/silver carry game for easy funding of other trades for years.
  • How, even though I personally think that what the OTC does is their own business, but the increasing securitization of commodities leaves regulatory arbitrage and OTC games to affect a new generation of ETF buyers, either thru incremental banking or thru contango cancer. That Wall Street salesmen and players with access to both markets retail and professional can exploit the captive audience created with ETFs and other fund type instruments to shear and in some cases skin the sheep.
  • That much of this happens because the gov’t is too stupid to see the inherent conflict of interest in what a broker-dealer does. Regulation will not stop gaming the law.  Ethics do, and not everybody has ethics. So best you can do is prevent situations of conflict of interest, like the existence of Broker-dealer type entities. Either you trade for yourself, or you trade for others. Period.
  • Fact is, if there were retail public in this game back then, the IB firms would have somehow sold them on the idea to BUY contango, or short silver. But the financialization of commodities wasn’t there yet. And the “bigger fool” game stopped at the producers. If it happened again, with ETFs, cross regulatory semi fungible products, asymmetric access to venues and other factors in a global market, the public would be killed, short squeeze or long puke (like in UNG now) take your pick.
  • You can never know intentions, and no one is bigger than the market, but the consequences of a lack of transparency and the free reign in which banks can tell half-truths to investors is a big factor in enabling strong hands to fleece weak hands with little market risk. It’s all a con game. And when the IBs figured out how to change the rules, then they were free to use their killer techniques to exploit a million little fish instead of the 10 big fish they usually competed with.
  • Phibro was a ballsy cowboy trading firm. The banks at the employee level are as well, but corporately, they first seek to make money and secondly provide a service. When they should be providing a service that makes money.
  • Everything that was done I’ve seen done the other way, keeping prices low, shaking out weaker players. Rarely does it happen in such a dramatic way. It is usually a series of “short cons” as opposed to Phibro’s home run. It’s all Darwinism. But when civilians are involved as they are now, then it is no longer caveat emptor.
  • Instead of taking a million dollars from a hedge fund, these guys take a dollar from a million people now.
 

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Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:19 | 2267671 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

BUY SILVER

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:31 | 2267696 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

"Buy Silver".......+1

....and plan a boating trip.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:01 | 2267742 qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

was

going to post this tomorrow, a bit early

Silver Monthly Average - Trend

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:41 | 2267814 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

i am SO itching to add more to my collection...been looking at GC website all weekend long...

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 20:53 | 2268183 strannick
strannick's picture

Workers of the world unite (China, India Middle East, South America. Buy silver, you have nothing to lose but your paper chains.

Governments and banks love you for having a savings account.  Banks get to fractional reserve the @#uck out of it, and government gets to indirectly tax the @#uck out of it through inflation. Silver renders these self proclaimed 'big swinging dicks' impotent.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:36 | 2267706 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

The Fed has cornered the Treasury market. 

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 20:49 | 2268177 strannick
strannick's picture

Yes. They hold it all (though in a pinch they can always print more). Unfortunately, no one wants any of their crappy paper, so their wont be any short squeeze.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:43 | 2267714 MrBinkeyWhat
MrBinkeyWhat's picture

And either pick it up in person, or get it delivered to your "safe place". Paper is, well just paper.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:08 | 2267758 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

Boat is the preferred method of delivery.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:50 | 2267913 Manthong
Manthong's picture

In the Hunt's case, Boeing 707's were preferred.

 

"The Circle K cowboys flew on 3 specially chartered 707 jets to Chicago and New York where they were met by a convoy of armored trucks during the middle of the night. Forty million oz of silver was loaded onto the planes and they immediately flew to Zurich where they were met by another convoy of armored trucks. The cowboys loaded the trucks and silver was dispersed to six different storage locations in Switzerland. The transfer cost Bunker and Herbert $200,000."

..40 million ounces by airplane.. and I wouldn't dream of FedExing even one lousy monster box.

http://www.rapidtrends.com/hunt-brothers-and-silver-story/

 

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:15 | 2267774 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Silver: when investing to make an honest buck is subverted by TPTB; only fools follow the rule of law at this stage of the game.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 21:46 | 2268309 william shatner
william shatner's picture

Silver is a side show, buy gold!

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:22 | 2267676 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

What's it gonna do tonight? 

Just watch: http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/

I have a sneaking suspicion that it will do one of 3 things:  Go Up, Go Down or Trade Relatively Flat.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:48 | 2267720 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I have a sneaking suspicion that it will do one of 3 things:  Go Up, Go Down or Trade Relatively Flat.

Hmmmm... Interesting analysis... Are you in the banking bizz?

Don't worry, it will go down over the next 5 weeks overall. After that there will be a spike.at least that's how I'm playing it.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:01 | 2267744 achmachat
achmachat's picture

I stopped trying to find bottoms for a year now. Every month I just change Euros into silver maples.

Life is extremely relaxing this way!

(let's be honest, what difference does it make in a few years if you got your maples for 27 Euros per ounce or 30)

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:19 | 2267880 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Fully agree, and i to,keep stacking.
But playing the option game tends to be rewarding these days and allows me to buy even more. At 28 or 9 it's a can't lose

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 22:32 | 2268216 Reptil
Reptil's picture

Completely unfazed about any coming dip. Below 100 USD/oz. this stuff is ridiculously underpriced.
The only use for paper games is for a small frie like me to get my hands on as much precious metal as I can. What an opportunity in a dying society!

And on the other hand a higher demand for anti-bacterial, and high grade electronics and electrics. Etc. etc.

ID registration, export regulation, higher taxes it's all coming. USSA EUCCP etc. etc. Look it up, history repeats itself.

Nominal is not intrinsic value. A callgirl is not your girlfriend for life.

The below discussion strikes me as a ppl. who confuse long term investment with short term trading on margin. MF Global is already forgotten so it seems.

zzzz

When CBs raise interest rates, wake me up ok?

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3043/2867609321_11a49501d7_o.jpg

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 18:12 | 2271093 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

I'll bet Corzine is a stacker....since about a few months after he got his GOOJF card from his fucking butt buddies.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:56 | 2280388 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Never stop trying to find bottoms Achmachat...

Oh, you mean market price lows?  I agree with you, I get so upset about the premiums charged in what amounts to price fixing by local dealers that it keeps my blood pressure too high for comfort.  Rationally I know that is just the price one has to pay for the security of holding real money that can't be depreciated through printing and that those dealers have to be able to keep the lights on as well as make a living themselves, and that on my deathbed I could look back and no it will not have mattered any more than had I exchanged x, y, or z bits of confetti for that metal. 

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:17 | 2267995 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

No, but my cousin the banker told me it is going down.

My neighbor, a survivalist told me it is going up. 

Me, I just don't know. 

Hence, my prediction:  Up, Down or Unchanged.

 

According to the chart, it just did all 3 as I typed this. 

That now makes me a silver guru.

Move aside David Morgan and Eric Sprott, there's new blood in town!

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:24 | 2267684 Sakka
Sakka's picture

I am very confident of silver's future, but why hasn't the COMEX been busted by now if things are so tight in the physical market?

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:32 | 2267700 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

I keep hearing about how things are so tight in the physical market, but I can still go to Gainesville or APMEX and buy for the same premium over spot that I always have.  Is this a different physical market where the big boys play?  If so, why wouldn't even a big boy go and lift all the available silver off APMEX and Gainesville?  I just don't get the argument.  Granted, I think supply could tighten up and current pricing may not reflect the potential, hence, one can keep buying, but it clearly isn't tight *now* as many keep stating, is it?

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:22 | 2267785 akak
akak's picture

I wonder about that aspect of the silver market as well, and the actual and potential interactions between, and overlap of, the physical vs. the "paper" silver markets.

I always keep reading how the overextended shorts in silver, or the wildly leveraged or overblown trading and positions in the paper market, are somehow and someday going to self-destruct and "explode" the price of silver.  But almost all those in the "paper" silver market do not and NEVER HAD any interest in acquiring actual physical silver, so if the paper silver market implodes, won't all those speculators just dry up and/or move elsewhere? 

Isn't the purely physical silver market pretty much taking care of itself, so to speak?  I fail to see why ANY sort of imbalances or unsustainabilities in the paper silver market should ever cause the price of physical silver to suddenly explode to many multiples of its current, real price --- wouldn't all those gamblers and paper speculators just declare force majure or bankruptcy, leaving the physical market largely or wholely unaffected? 

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:07 | 2267850 devo
devo's picture

But almost all those in the "paper" silver market do not and NEVER HAD any interest in acquiring actual physical silver, so if the paper silver market implodes, won't all those speculators just dry up and/or move elsewhere?

Great comment.

I agree. I don't think the silver market ever explodes wildly, unfortunately. You look on eBay and a $35 Maple has maybe 10 bids on it. APMEX has any coin you want, etc. If you see the bids @ 1000 bids per coin, then you'll know there is real physical demand. I think physical demand by private/retail investors is quite low. Much more money in paper silver, and the only thing that changes that is a dollar headed toward 0, which bears have predicted for decades, yet it never happens. I do think we're the closest we've ever been to that scenario, but there are many more cards to play besides just printing. e.g. tax pms @ 90%, confiscation, holiday/repat tax, etc. Own PMs as insurance and nothing more.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:09 | 2267862 mt paul
mt paul's picture

1/10 th gold eagles

less than 200 $ each

on the ebay

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:20 | 2267881 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

akak

You are correct to be nervous about the silver market and it's supposed imminent collapse.

I got rid of my physical silver in January ( for gold), admittedly a tad late, but had some unfortunate constraints.

The silverbugs are being played, in my estimation.

 

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:25 | 2267891 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Sometimes people in traffic switch lanes because they think the other lines go faster, and in the end it took them half a hour longuer than every other driver that sticked to his lane.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:32 | 2267902 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

I switched lanes because I noticed that the one I was in was heading towards a cliffedge.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:40 | 2267920 devo
devo's picture

Why do you say that?

I think silver's dual role of money and industrial metal gives it more upside. And either silver is going up, or gold is going down if you believe in the gold/silver ratio. Curious why you'd make that move.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:50 | 2267938 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

I'm sorry. I should not exagerate.

 

Silver is fine really. It should roughly hold its purchasing power through what is coming, there are much worse things to be in. Hell it should even gain purchasing power in the coming hyperinflation in the USA as a barter good, and if that is your reason for holding it well and fine.

 

However, when one understands why gold is better 'money' than silver, and consider what that difference means for what is coming, the result should be clear.

 

Silver is not gold; it's not the poor mans gold, it's not like gold....it is silver.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:58 | 2267957 devo
devo's picture

I agree, as I am more vested in gold (higher $ value in gold, but more oz of silver). I like this arrangement. But, I've actually been looking to buy more silver rather than gold. Bigger issue imo is figuring out their purchasing power. I want more metals, but can't determine by any sound method whether they're overpriced or not. Even when pricing them versus oil, the Dow, or homes it's not clear. I think there's a fear premium on every asset right now. If fear declines, gold and silver will probably lose purchasing power relative to the dollar (I mean, we just saw this a few weeks ago with the -$100 day).

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:04 | 2267969 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

There is no way to value gold by any common method. To look towards future value you must predict it's function in a future system. I am of the opinion it will be more prominent.

 

Silver is easy to value, just look to the industrial demand for it, both now and in the future. I do not expect it's monetary demand to remain a factor in the future, but that part similarly to gold can only be estimated by looking at it's function in future.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:38 | 2268016 devo
devo's picture

I think you're missing one key point regarding silver as money (well, besides the fact that it has that historical function): if gold stays at $1,600 an ounce, Joe Sixpack can't afford it, which means he flees to silver (and maybe even copper). Silver also has a built in recovery hedge. I think copper will begin to transform from base to precious metal if the current trends continue and poverty increases, and it also holds a recovery hedge if that somehow does occur. Hoarding copper pennies might be the investment of the next two decades. Nickel, too.

Regarding copper and nickel:

  • Built in arbitrage (face value 1 and 5 cents, metal value of 3 and 6 cents)
  • Built in stop loss.
  • Joe Sixpack can afford it.
  • Both benefit from any real economic recovery.
  • Nickel benefits from war.
Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:41 | 2268046 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

In this, J6P does not matter. He barely has two nickels to rub together as it is...in most cases he owes some on a net basis.

 

Consider also, what exactly will be the functional demand for for example copper at a stage that J6P decides to flee. What would need to be the economic sitation if J6P is driven to such extremes. You think he will be buying a copper kettle and a ipad at that stage? ;)

 

 

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 20:20 | 2268115 devo
devo's picture

No, but he'll need some form of barter. Considering there is no downside risk, I think copper and nickel are great investments with zero downside. Owning these could give you leverage with people who do have food and all necessities, too. Not everyone will be poor.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 20:28 | 2268131 prole
prole's picture

Bla Bla I like you guys .. I used to have silver .. bla bla I like gold! Really I'm with you guys bla

SILVER IS GOING OFF A CLIFF!!!

BLA BLA let me keep this straight, when I post as "Sandoz" I bash gold, when I post as "Motley Fool" I

pretend to like gold and bash silver.

This is all ONE FVCKING RETARD!!! Are they hiring at the troll factory? How much does Cass pay?

Is it per post?

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 01:25 | 2268699 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

Idiot.

I did apologize for my exaggeration.

Please do continue buying silver. In fact in your case please swap all your gold for silver too. >.>

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 01:55 | 2268723 prole
prole's picture

In this case I will take the advice of a troll. I will keep buying silver.

But why Mr. Sunsteen, or should I say Mr. Sandoz, should I swap gold

for silver? The precious metals investor likes both silver and gold, why would I want to trade one for the other? BTW I don't know anybody who would want to make that trade with me, nor would I know why? I trade these little company scrip portraits that your boss prints for metals.  I never keep much of a surplus of those little company scrip notes around. They are printed by some flim-flam outfit called "the federal reserve" They are the ones who pay you to promote their company scrip by pretending to be a bunch of different posters like "Sandoz" and "Motley Fool" and God knows who else bashing gold and throwing a bunch of water all over precious metals investors. I am not calling you stupid, I am saying what you post is stupid, and its not what you believe, you are paid to bash the metals, and anyone getting paid to sit at home and pound a keyboard however nonsensical the output can't be that dumb.

How much do you get paid and how can I get in on your scam?

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 06:05 | 2268834 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

Yawn.

You know.... one of the issues I have with the silver crowd is that *every* person who does not agree with them on 'silver bitches' is a troll or a shill, and *every* time the price of silver goes down it is because of those evil manipulators.

 

I wish you would stop and actually think sometimes.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 06:08 | 2268836 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

For what it's worth, I recommended a swap because your blinding stupidity annoyed me to the extent that I did not think you are worthy of holding gold.

Thus my warning isn't for you.

Stay in silver.

As I said earlier, in real terms you should be roughly ok.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 01:25 | 2268700 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

Idiot.

I did apologize for my exaggeration.

Please do continue buying silver. In fact in your case please swap all your gold for silver too. >.>

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 02:04 | 2268729 prole
prole's picture

Let's see, so far you are Sandoz, who urges investors "to be cautious with gold" because you can tell by the "pumping" that gold is about to go down to 1300, or 300, or you hint at the number 300. OK -- Good troll account, good narrative, that is for a gold thread. You probably got a couple hundred bucks for that and something good to put on your resume'.

Here you are "Motley Fool" "Motley Fool" Jumps in a silver thread and oh he "used to own silver" he's not the typical anti-metals troll no no-- He holds gold himself, he just wants to recommend to his "like minded fellows" to get out of silver, cause its GOING OFF A CLIFF BABY!!

That will look great on a troll resume "master of the virtual avatar" "uses subtle troll techniques to ingratiate himself with target audience to cast doubt on their unconventional preferences for precious metals investing."

I salute you bro! You're getting paid in your underwear! How you must laugh at us knowing your get to steal our money!!

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 06:22 | 2268701 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:05 | 2267970 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:51 | 2267939 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:03 | 2267968 Au Shucks
Au Shucks's picture

I'll presume, given your moniker and pic, that you are playing a little spongbob "opposite day" with your posts.  To consider the alternative would be to accept that the photo you display is actually you on an average day.  In case you're new to ZH, posters here aren't allowed to come to the table on a bluff... if you got cards, you better play 'em or you'll just end up feeding the hogs.  Your views on silver are unsupported, contrary to logic, in spite of fundamentals, and in support of the banking cartel.  Prove yourself clown crew.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:10 | 2267983 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

I have no need to prove myself, what would be the point? You are free to ignore my warning.

 

I share it simply, in the spirit that those here have intentions that I support.

 

My views on silver stem from long and deep thought. I know all the accepted views for why silver is a thing to own. Some support your views, most don't.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 20:31 | 2268140 prole
prole's picture

So why do you own gold in this thread and you bash gold in the other thread as "Sandoz"

Seem to remember Sandoz Sunsteen simply "sharing his views in the spirit of those here have intentions that I support."

Besides Methman, Sandoz which is also you and you and your boss who exactly here "have intentions that I support?"

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 06:09 | 2268837 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

This is my only account. You will also find in my profile a link to my blog, which is pro-gold. Moron.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 06:23 | 2268838 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 06:23 | 2268839 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:10 | 2267984 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:41 | 2267922 akak
akak's picture

Motley Fool,

I was not and am not "nervous" about silver, I was merely posing a question based on my very incomplete knowledge of the paper silver market, and its actual and potential influences and interactions with the physical silver market.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:50 | 2267940 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

Perhaps you should spend some of your time contemplating the OTC market in the commodity space, both in size and transparency.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:54 | 2267945 kito
kito's picture

if you are of the belief that gold will blow through 2000, shirley silver will follow through 50......if you are holding gold to protect you from the threat of inflation, why wouldnt one silver afford you the same protection, especially since its never hit its all time high?......again, thats if you believe gold will lead the way....................... 

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:00 | 2267960 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

Hmm. I am not holding gold to protect me from the threat of inflation. Almost any physical good would serve that purpose. I am holding gold because I see systemic risks. Specifically that the dollar is losing it's position as world reserve asset. Something will need to fill that gap. SDR's won't work, nor yuan, though gold could, just not at the current price. ;)

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 20:19 | 2268109 kito
kito's picture

Whatever gold does, silver follows........

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 01:23 | 2268697 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

We shall have to see about that now won't we.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 04:37 | 2268803 prole
prole's picture

OK Cass, since you are here predicting doom for silver holders, you are predicting tears for fears for silverbugs, can you give us a time parameter? In other words, when is the outside time-frame for when "We shall have to see about that now won't we?"

You are very smug and confident, so I'm sure you won't mind to give us a date, a time by which, silver will have brought us pain and agony, or you will be exposed and admit yourself that you are an idiot for being in a long line of anti-precious metals posters ALL OF WHOM HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ARE IMBECILES, and are not longer posting having slunk away humiliated like Math Man.

Please give me a date, at which time, if silver has not collapsed or gone off a cliff as you exactly predicted, you and I can both agree, on that date, that  you are an idiot and you agree to kill yourself?

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 06:13 | 2268840 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

Wow, just wow.

Anyone claiming the are able to predict the exact date our complex economic system will collapse is a liar or a moron. I am neither so I will not thumbsuck dates. But, when the system collapses, and is subsequently replaced...then.

Further more, as stated above, silver should do okay in real terms, especially in the USA where it should gain in real terms for the start at least of the hyperinflation. In nominal terms everything will go up fo course due the the Fed's printing.

 

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 08:02 | 2268934 prole
prole's picture

OK maybe I went a little overboard in my last post.

What happened to silver going over a cliff?

What happened to "OK we shall have to see won't we?" Implying that silver would bring silverbugs to anguish? (like it doesn't anyway all the time)

PS I don't believe in any system crash nonsense, although it does appear to be a staple myth for precious metals holders/investors.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 08:26 | 2269006 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

I expect silver to roughly halve in real terms when the dust has settled. In comparison to most other things this is equivalent to it roughly staying the same...meaning one could do much much worse.

 

We shall still see, both my and your positions are simply predictions of the future. We cannot know who was right until enough time has passed.

 

Your belief nonwithstanding, I believe it is coming. Once again we will just have to see who is right. Either way it won't take that long, a couple of years at most.

 

If it hasn't crashed by 2015 then I will admit I was wrong...there's a date for you. :P

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 06:23 | 2268841 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 06:23 | 2268842 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

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Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:01 | 2267961 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

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Sun, 03/18/2012 - 20:21 | 2268119 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

FOFOA, you are quit prolific today!

Silver For The People

http://www.brotherjohnf.com/

 

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 01:23 | 2268696 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

I'm not FOFOA. I'm just a fool. :)

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:23 | 2267888 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Over here in europe, 1 ounces go 32 euro a coin on ebay on average.
Prices are even going up again.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 10:44 | 2269554 EasterBunny
EasterBunny's picture

I dont understand why anyone in Europe is buying silver coins on eBay at that price when you can get it for lower premiums on sites like this

http://www.anlagegold24.de/Gold_und_Silber_Barren_und_Muenzen_Silbermuen...

 

 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 11:17 | 2280460 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

I looked at silver bars at that site, 15 grams for 14 euro, a price that includes 19% VAT.

One does not pay EU VAT's on E Bay, not if one is half a wit anyway. 

EUR 14.200,00 
incl. 19% MwSt.
 

MwSt. = Mehrwertsteuer = VAT

I don't know about where you live but I pay no taxes in Oregon on any purchase of anything. 

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:50 | 2268063 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

I'd like to see an article on this very thing - especially as I've become such a fan of silver in the past few years.

OT, if I ever win the lottery, I am going to EXPLODE APMEX and Gainsville...just sayin'.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 22:18 | 2268370 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

I just like to take a few of my old Morgans out occasionally and handle them. They tell me all I need to know. This is money.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:22 | 2267786 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

It's tight when you have paper holders who will line up one day and demand physical.

The vault knows it. They have 100 coins and maybe 10 to 20 people think they own that one coin.

Now 1000 people show up demanding physical delivery now.

Worse than a virgin on his or her first time.

And probably the last time they are ever going to play in the paper pretend market.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:50 | 2267912 devo
devo's picture

You're right in theory, but aren't the people who want to speculate in paper doing so, and aren't the people who want physical doing so?

On one hand you're saying people are smart enough to "own" silver, but on the other, you're saying they're not smart enough to buy the right type of silver (physical), which I think is a flawed assumption. I think people know what they're doing, know the risk (especially after MF Global), and most want to speculate and profit from uncertainty rather than own (which is insurance rather than speculation).

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:34 | 2267703 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Because very very few people ever take delivery:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjAeriVttw0

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:57 | 2267735 Diet Coke and F...
Diet Coke and Floozies's picture

Term of the day: "Fractional Reserve Exchange".

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:04 | 2267851 smiler03
smiler03's picture

I bought some Brent crude and I was shocked when UPS delivered 10 barrels of oil to my home.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:35 | 2268024 devo
devo's picture

Haha. Exactly. Silver bugs pressume people actually want the silver. They just want the trade. I'd be curious to poll Comex traders and see how many actually want their silver. I think most want profits from trading silver to buy Ipads. Just saying.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 21:40 | 2268294 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"I'd be curious to poll Comex traders and see how many actually want their silver."

I should think would be able to find that out somehow through COMEX. Don't they publish stats on how many futures contracts settle for cash vs physical? Could you learn something by looking at how many positions are still open at contract expiration?

Call a few mining companies otherwise.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 02:57 | 2268765 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You'd be even more shocked if you actually took delivery of an Oil Contract; which is a thousand barrels, and not 10. It's a train car full; hence, "I'm shorting three cars of June Oil".

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:37 | 2267709 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

They are managing to hold it together I guess...

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:49 | 2267726 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Because the shorters also have a serious stash of the physical off the books. There's plenty of silver to keep on playing for a pretty long time.
Yes the comex is broke, but that's not important

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:49 | 2267826 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

They get some contract holders to take cash premium reimbursement instead of receiving the silver called for in the contract. And they run around for a month getting silver from whomever they can to satisfy the parties who won't be bought off. Harvey Organ notes that you used to see almost every entity standing for delivery given their silver on the first or second day of the month. Right now we're 18 days into the month and the Comex still has 1.8 million ounces worth of March 2012 deliveries waiting to take place after having bought off nearly that same number of contracts. They're managing to keep a lid on things but just barely.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 20:01 | 2268088 smiler03
smiler03's picture

Very interesting info. Is it this sort of situation that causes Silver (& Gold) to be "leased"? 

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:32 | 2267699 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

very good article from the archive server!

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:45 | 2267716 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Fascinating aspect from the vid reporting on 1980, is that at the time Henry Kissinger reported the Saudis and Gulf sheiks as fearing they themselves would be overthrown by revolutions within 5 years or so after the Iranian one ...

Indeed, if the US had not been artificially propping up the Saudi regime in exchange for both oil and the monopoly of oil pricing in dollars ... it might have become a very different world.

The world might have been a much better place, if that mediaeval, torturing oppressive Saudi regime, had been left to its natural demise at the hands of its own Arab people.

Would have been a better world if the USA had avoided propping up not only the Saudis, but the Israelis as well. 'Yankee Go Home', as Ron Paul agrees.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:49 | 2267724 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

and the more we learn about Jimmay....the more we learn about....Jimmay.

watch the vid.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:50 | 2267728 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

If the silver is mine, in hand, I don't fret about much of anything.  The dollar they are taking from a million people is a paper dollar, not the fraction of an ounce of silver it represents.   All the paper traders can burn in hell for all I care.  Move the COMEX silver here, move it there, just move a tag or the name on the "sheet".   Doesn't matter a bit to the little fella like me who can stack his stash on a folding card table without fear of collapse.  Homey don't play dat game.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:50 | 2267729 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Paper is the stuff that wipes asses.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:16 | 2267734 longdong silver
longdong silver's picture

the coin shop sells for spot + premium.

the corrupt system is still setting the price.

until the system is broken, our phisical will be perceived by the sheep to be to high priced at thirty frn's

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:09 | 2267861 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Here it is spot plus a rather excessive 12%. 

I remember the Hunts well and their attempt to corner the market on silver.  Back then it was far more of an industrial metal since cameras still used film and the biggest user of silver for a long time was Kodak (and Polaroid).  As the Hunts bought up more and more of the market Kodak did too in order to try to stay in operation, but the price of a roll of film went from about $2 to nearly ten bucks, and that was a LOT of money back then, developing the film also more than doubled, the result was for quite a while photography was strictly a special occasion thing after that. 

In fact once the silver price crashed the cost of photograhy never really did come back down and Kodak just got smaller and smaller every year so did Polaroid and even Fuji, though they diversified and went into optics and digital in a big way. 

All I can say is how greatful I am for digital, I can't imagine how rare and expensive good porn would be without it. 

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 16:57 | 2267736 beenburnedtwice
beenburnedtwice's picture

Just received my 2011 iShares Silver Trust (SLV) shareholder tax information, cost basis, expenses instruction and example.

Never again.  Hold physical.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 20:53 | 2268187 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Sorry to hear about your tax issue,may I suggest you change your user name to "beenburneredthrice"

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 09:44 | 2267739 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:03 | 2267747 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

I had a client 1100 oz. PHYS in his basement, died 1988. Never know what the ex-wife did in Nissequoge. Nostradamus, Bob his name. Owned an Exxon station on LI exit 63.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:16 | 2267872 smiler03
smiler03's picture

It's amazing to me to think that 1100 shiny silver coins are worth so little. In my minds eye it would look like a Pirates treasure, worth millions. Wrong colour I suppose.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 20:47 | 2268174 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

North Ocean Avenue -- spent a lot of good times in the Patchogue area in a previous life.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:06 | 2267751 Kristian
Kristian's picture

"The CFTC is here to protect small customers and commercial users..."

Good old days then.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:07 | 2267755 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

If you were to ask Ann Barnhardt where it all started, here is where she would point. Then I say, you must ask yourself, how were the Enron & Worldcom investigations stymied by the destruction of non-redundant data when WTC7 blew up? This shit goes way back, excuse me if I puke when I see an American flag. What bullshit.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:10 | 2267765 jse111
jse111's picture

Go Physical:

http://tiny.cc/z2wdbw

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:16 | 2267772 Pretorian
Pretorian's picture

Get ready!!! The USS John C. Stennis aircraft carrier is seen as it allegedly went "inside the manoeuvre zone" where Iranian ships are conducting 10 days of wargames in the Gulf, accoridng to Iranian officials. USS Stennis was not reported on Strafor naval map

http://rt.com/news/america-persian-gulf-surge-831/

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:04 | 2267971 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Sounds like Pymatuning (where the fish walk on the fishes backs) but with carriers instead of carp.

 

http://members.fortunecity.com/mrodgers1/motorcycles/rides_files/pymatun...

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 20:31 | 2268139 DutchR
Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:17 | 2267778 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

A dollar from a million is not noticed by anyone.

Little Fish.

Funny how a hungry whale can show up and colander a million plankton out of the water while millions more are made elsewhere.

It's all paper.

If you are a fish and have in your fins one American Silver Eagle coin in physical you are going to be a Kingmaker someday.

There is a time when you think something is so cheap and common as to bend over and pick it up anytime you like.,.. that is when you stack and be ready for the day it's all gone.

Like Checking and Savings accounts with 15% interest bearing.

Keep stacking physical. Pay cash or equivalent for it. Never borrow money to do it unless it's a unsecured credit card you dont give a &^%$% about.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:48 | 2267824 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Did someone cut Trav and Tmos' internet connections?

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:17 | 2267842 akak
akak's picture

LOL, I was wondering the same thing myself!

Where is Trav to tell us, for the 154,882nd time, how EVERY silver owner, no matter when they bought, and no matter at what price, is by (his) definition a "bagholder"?

Maybe the two of them finally collided head-on, resulting in a burst of gamma rays and their mutual annihilation.

(Although if so, I suspect that Trav still managed to emit a few stupidos in the process.)

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:15 | 2267993 akak
akak's picture
"Access denied"

"You are not authorized to access this page."

 

????????

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:18 | 2267998 knukles
knukles's picture

Does he mean to include old men holding their scrotums?

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:38 | 2268026 akak
akak's picture

I don't understand your comment, knuckles, but from this "Access Denied" message, I have to assume that Trav7777 has been banned.  Anyone know about this, or why he was banned?  Tyler?

(Not that it would be any extreme surprise if Trav finally pushed Tyler to his breaking point, as he had so many of us.)

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:47 | 2268050 knukles
knukles's picture

Akak...

When you're trying to edit a comment, if somebody else has already posted a reply then access is denied.

The gist of my question was if silver bagholders include older white haired gents holding their scrotums.  My indepth intellectual humor sometimes zips right over the head of most folks to which Mrs. Knukles often says "Please shut the fuck up, it's not even funny."  And she has an IQ of 188.  Go figure.  Ouch!  She just hit me   quit it  quaubo  re      .rf

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 20:55 | 2268144 akak
akak's picture

Knuckles,

Yes, I am aware of the fact that one cannot access one's own comments once others have responded to them.

The "Access Denied" message that I was referring to above, however, was in relation to the link that Crockett supplied to Trav7777's ZeroHedge user profile -- if you try to link to it, it gives that "Access Denied" message, which I have only seen in the past after a given user was banned.  So maybe that is why he posted that link in the first place ---- to indicate that Trav had been banned?

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:39 | 2268036 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Here is the South American herb you were looking for on another thread. I used to grow it but lost the last seeds 15 years ago.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 20:43 | 2268165 akak
akak's picture

Thanks so much Jendrzejczyk --- I did get the link in the other thread, and once I looked it up and found the name of it, it came back to me after quite a few years.  It's just too bad that one cannot find it in the USA, and I live in such a cold climate that it is unlikely that I can grow it myself.  But I appreciate the info.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 23:35 | 2268535 tmosley
tmosley's picture

It is my experience that users who's user pages display that never come back.

I wonder what happened?  Guess homedude hit the crack one to many times and made a serious threat against someone, or broke some law with one of his posts.

Just another troll corpse on the side of the road to the future.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 23:32 | 2268530 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I'm still here.  I just haven't noticed any major lies being told, and I don't really have anything to say about silver at the moment.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 17:56 | 2267843 EmileLargo
EmileLargo's picture

That was an awesome little clip. I think we can be sure that when the public starts to panic about the currency at some point down the road, the only thing that will disappear faster than silver is food off the supermarket shelves. 

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:04 | 2267852 kill switch
kill switch's picture

Ry Codder,,,,

America in the dustbin of history,,,Plan accordingly.. Buy Silver

Amazing vid

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6ymVaq3Fqk

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:05 | 2267854 mt paul
mt paul's picture

long 

silver and muppets

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:16 | 2267873 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Can't these manipulators do this to Goldman Sachs/JPMorgan/oil/treasuries instead???

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:21 | 2267885 Wixard
Wixard's picture

I dont think it goes to the moon any time soon, but the 30-35ish range seems about right for now. 

 

In a sane world with proper fiscal policy I would say even less. 

 

 

However things are so chaotic right now anyone who has the answers wouldnt tell you if they did. Bright rainbows overseas could mean a sharp drop in the dollar, a war in country X could mean another leg up in the same. 

 

No one knows. (well some do, but they wont tell!)

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:37 | 2267900 kill switch
kill switch's picture

http://vimeo.com/29950141

The new world!! In full screen mode

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:35 | 2267907 praxis
praxis's picture

Can you imagine what a score holding Silver was at @$50.00 per ounce in 1980 dollars?  My god the transfer of wealth was enormous. 

The FED has gone mad at the printing press and silver still hasn't broken it's record high.  It's still undervalued...

I would imagine a metal that has been artificially supressed in price for so long is going to explode in value before all is said and done.  I would also imagine that the run up last year was just the opening act.  The silver market is tiny and when big $ flows in the price explodes. 

Make friends with volitility until its true price discovery.  I can imagine what the price overshoot will be as the bull goes mania...

 

   

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:38 | 2267911 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Unlike 1980 there was no second, third, fourth and fifth leg down. Unlike 1980 inflation is going in the wrong direction. And unlike 1980 US debt has now been downgraded with debt/GDP busting through key barriers that were unimaginable before. 

Just remember: Back then they said not to worry about US debt and deficits, they said there would never be another global banking crisis like in the 1930s, and no more bailouts, and no epic stock market crashes, they said there was plenty of oil... and on and on. Words are cheap. and getting cheaper

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:42 | 2267923 non_anon
non_anon's picture

don't forget the Gould ol' day, black friday of 1869

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Friday_(1869)

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:59 | 2267958 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

We had a good laugh that day

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:46 | 2268054 non_anon
non_anon's picture

ha, ha, yeah, I'm drinking Ulysses S. Grant's purported favorite whiskey as I write this.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:27 | 2268014 bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

what if all this talk of silver manipulation, is just part of the manipulation plan itself!??!!?!?

 

brain exploding!!!!!

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 19:59 | 2268082 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

*holds fingers and thumb togther touching forehead, then slowly moves digits away from forehead while expanding fingers and making an exaggerated slow motion explosion sound with mouth*

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 20:53 | 2268184 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

No there are still chinese, there are stilly japanese.

We the people will not die it will only change one ass-hole to another.

The grase is still green the sky still turns blue the wind still blows and assholes sill suffer after a night of peppers.

No mater what they who are now in power cant last 1000 to say nothing of 100k or even a blink of an eye of 1milion years.

money buys only weakness not strenght.

Those with a cruch shall never walk strong without it.

Those with power now are dead, weak and stupid. Since there is no need to be strong if you have the money to buy streight. Money buys only weakness.

What need do you have to dig a well or farm or even to speek if you have printed money to do that for you.

Your offspring will die weak and stupid as the plastic fed kids adapt from nothing to everything.

Fear money for it is money that promotes weakness.

Smart people will find a way that is why they are smart.

IQ is just a way of telling your self if you wanted to you could build a water welll with not ever having to do so.

Those who do. Are the smarter then those who do not?

Ask those who dig wells not those who do not.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 20:37 | 2268126 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

I  remember 1980. Hard and educational would be the words i would use to describe that year.

For those who remember, how would you describe them.

No judgement here. If you remember; some may want to hear your story or what you can remember of it.

This may help.

Ms. Pac-man.

Return of the Jedi was a  myth. Cracked did a cartoon about it if i remember corectily.

 

Chuck-E-cheese was the birth day bomb.

BMX was the bomb to have.

Mogoose was just a legend.

Anyway thats what i can gather from my liquid memory. Maybe you can remember more.

Regan was a dick then till the day he died but then i was young and could see a dick-head a mile off in a blizzard and full of stupid.

Adults are always stupid and just as retarded, now as then.

 

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 21:21 | 2268231 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I remember a little bit too.

The quarters. The goddamn silver quarters....

Oh and you did your own tune ups as long you had the firing order correct and the points gapped properly.

Oh and you actually had to know people and have the right numbers to anything from a rotary phone.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 21:00 | 2268206 ATG
ATG's picture

And an alleged third Derivatives Flash Crash and Silver Whistleblower from JPM:

http://bit.ly/xDoDry

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 21:10 | 2268218 jomama
jomama's picture

why look a gift horse in the mouth?

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 22:32 | 2268402 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

The traditional value of gold and silver from pre Roman times right up through the total global fiatization of currency was roughly 16 to one.  And I think the day will come when that ratio will return to it's old valuation.  But, I think it will come more from silver appreciation than gold depreciation.  So, an $1,800 ounce of gold would have been worth for thousands of years 16 silver coins worth 1/16th per oz gold which would today be apx. $113 each. 

One of the arguments that supports this is that there are many MANY years/decades/centuries supply of gold in storage where silver production can barely meet demand, miners and dealers are taking orders for metal still in the ground.  But, prices and a real AU to AG ratio will not be reset as long as paper fiat is legal tender.  If we ever do return to a metal coin based system of legal tender I believe silver would quickly return to that 16:1 ratio while both rise tremendously.  That is gold at the equivalent of what $20,000 fiat dollars would now buy for you, and silver ounces would purchase what it now requires $1,250 US to buy.  Just imagine, one pure copper penny would actually have value again, as of a couple years ago I quit accepting pennies with my change in transactions.  They are dirty, and like sand they have no value and get into everything.  If I do get pennies handed to me at say a drive through window I just drop them on the ground, I do not need them fucking up the motors and gears in my electric seats. 

 

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 23:01 | 2268427 akak
akak's picture

.

... as of a couple years ago I quit accepting pennies with my change in transactions.  They are dirty, and like sand they have no value and get into everything.  If I do get pennies handed to me at say a drive through window I just drop them on the ground, I do not need them fucking up the motors and gears in my electric seats.

I totally agree --- the current American system of coinage and bills is a complete joke, not having been updated one iota since before the 1930s when the dollar was worth almost THIRTY TIMES what it is today!  By all reason and logic, we should have LONG ago gotten rid of the one cent and five cent coins, maybe even the dime, with the quarter-dollar as our smallest coin and the $20 as our smallest bill, with a $1, $2, $5, and $10 coin being thrown into the mix.  In REAL, purchasing-power terms, that is exactly the system we had in 1930 --- so why do we need the functional equivalent of a 1/30 of a cent coin today?

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 22:35 | 2268410 Davalicious
Davalicious's picture

I got screwed with ZSL in January. I had puts on ZSL (ultra short - x2 - silver), so I was x2 long silver, along with many others at that time. Virtually no liquidity in that market. Come options day, silver got hammered. I realised the market was totally corrupt with no hope of individualy making money. Even if my play worked out, lets say the financial markets collapse, there would be no counter party left to pay.

Now I'm strictly physical gold and silver, with a side dish of CEF (Central Fund of Canada) for Gold.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 22:37 | 2268416 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

thank you for this post .   i luv this history & all the information .... it's super & this is why i luv reading ZEROHEDGE / education.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 00:47 | 2268647 chump666
chump666's picture

And Wall Street is doing that right now with equities, as it shows the signs of devouring it's self. 

Bernanke will have to admit inflation is hitting hard.  Should send a correction into a meltdown.  Silver/Gold will be bid though on Iran war which is due within a mth.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 04:14 | 2268800 KrugerrandFan
KrugerrandFan's picture

What a bunch of manipulating Hunts!

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 08:12 | 2268964 prole
prole's picture

As for the Hunt bros I will give me personal take as if that's worth anything. Those idiots had the right idea, but they took it too far, and they used the "house money" credit to enact their scheme. The casino isn't going to let you break the casino, on house money, they are going to toss you out the back door with a broken face, which is exactly what they did to the hunts.

If the Hunts had just used their inconceivable amount of wealth to flat out buy up physical in amounts they could afford in cash, they would have been fine, or maybe gotten a polite phone call or an offer they can't refuse or whatever. But they were borrowing and buying on credit, I read one account that they did get a polite phone call but did not heed the warning, so they were tossed off the bus.

I think they were "all the chips on the table, bet everything" type businessmen/gamblers, and this style had worked for them, until it didn't.

This particular video is a very superficial and surface only details of the era.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!