Are The Europeans About To Start The Second Half Of Our Great Depression?

Tyler Durden's picture

"Just when we think the worst is over - and let's face it we have been in this crisis for five years - we get the second half; are the Europeans about to start the second half our Great Depression with massive bank runs" are the Jaws-music-inspired words that recent media-favorite (yes, us too) Niall Ferguson uses in an interview with CBC. His main concern is that this kind of (bank-run) event can quickly spiral out of the control of even the ECB as he uncomfortably conjures the image of the initial US stabilization that occurred in 1930 to May 1931 only to be knocked back into a greater depression by the failure of Credit-Anstalt, which set off bank failures and eventually defaults in 1932 on many government debts. The deposit run potential is the single-biggest reason to care about Greek-exit - in itself it is not large enough economically to interfere with global growth but it is the message and contagion that it sends that is critical in bringing forth a pan-European banking crisis and implicitly spilling over to the US and Asia via global trade and banking transmission channels. An excellent brief interview that summarizes the exact fears that face Europe and implicitly the US, explains the rather simple solution of fiscal federalism and the fact that today's German politik is very different from 1989's Helmut Kohl-era with regard to their commitment to the Federal outcome. His conclusions are worrisome. Germany is the key - and there is not a good understanding of financial markets in Berlin.

Six minutes well-spent on a Saturday evening...


Europe is a part of North America's destiny because the financial systems are so intertwined - and remember even the all-knowing Fed massively under-estimated the second-order effects of Lehman.

"It's a total fantasy to think that the meltdown that I am discussing that could happen in a matter of weeks would not have a major impact on North America's prospects of sustained recovery."

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Aziz's picture

I like how bearish Ferguson has gone, maybe he has spent less time talking to Henry Kissinger and more time reading Zero Hedge?

zilverreiger's picture

He is one of those NWO think tank shills, and this is the third post with him in it this weekend...

All we need now is more stratfor post. Stop shilling for the slavemasters pipers ZH.

Joe The Plumber's picture

You understand we should keep our friends close and our enemies even closer

brooklynlou's picture

Easier to fart on them in case of emergency ...

fightthepower's picture

Wow!  A Toole of the Rothschilds wants to consolidate power in the hands of a larger European state.  Well, at least Europeans will know for sure of who to fight against if they want to remain free.  Its do or die time for the Rothschilds.  No doubt if they don't get their European super police state, they have  a plan "B".  Plan "B" is hyperinflation and war.  Or perhaps deflation and war. 

Fuck you Rothschilds! 

I won't fight your war. 

Colombian Gringo's picture

Yeah, fuck you rothchilds, I am available for your use. Signed Modern American Woman.

knukles's picture

Was the article headline a rhetorical question or will it be an open and closed book test?

The Monkey's picture

This article is a contrary indicator.  Time to get bullish on stocks.

Pinto Currency's picture



Talk about "scanty notions" - the idea that we are facing Greek contagion as the source of the impending crisis is silly.

There is $65 trillion of outstanding debt in the Euro system and $55 trillion of debt in the US system.  A debt bubble, blown by central planning and central banking, that is now collapsing.

Niall's solution is more centralization. 

This guy barely qualifies to organize bridge tournaments at old age homes.


Oh regional Indian's picture

Not sure how many picked it up. At about 2 minutes something, he says "Greece is only a smaller COLONY".

That, my friends, is what is called a slip of the Tong-you!

Yes, Greece is one of the smaller colonies. Hot diggity. Whos is the master? Is Niall still just "stuck" in the hoary, gory past? 

I believe he just let the cat out of the bag.

Just to extend the arguement a little.

1. Germany is at the heart of it all in Europe. Powerhouse. Merkel is Iron Balls lady of europe.

2. UK is a basket case at every level, socially, financially, fiscally, literally.... It's all about the COLON-ial past. The present is UGLY. But it is ruled, with an iron fist mind you, appearences aside, by the Saxe-Coburg Gotha family. Germanic, changed to windsor only when their German background became un-tenable and un-explainable after the end of WW1.

3. Any country that was a former colony, is still a colony as far as GB is concerned (by law, by treaty, by governor-generalship... Oh Canada, and here you thought you were a free nation). The great commonwealth scam.

It's a deep hole, but this is precisely why it's obvious that this is all just so much theater.

As an interesting aside, last time Niall was in India, he shared the stage with Sarah Palin.





Illya Kuryakin's picture

No he said Greece is only a small economy. You can sit down now.

JOYFUL's picture

Ok, but it was a good rant....

hey Ilya, is that yur shoe phone ringing, (or was that GetSmart?) Oh for the days when spies were just spies, not dual citiizens.

fyi, ori...

Goth-Saxe, and the rest of the teutonic tribe don't really run things any more than the last few Mogul Emperors really ran anything outside of the palace gates...there's another tribe in charge of that, tho few dare mention them by name...we use the polite euphemism Anglo-American ascendancy instead

Harlequin001's picture

yes, why spoil a good story for the sake of a few simple facts, eh?

clymer's picture

Although I respect Mr. Ferguson tremendously, I much prefer his late night talk show to his incessant cheerleading global federalization of central banking in the hands of private families who have indeed demonstrated that they do not deserve that control.

Popo's picture

This is not so much a bearish "prediction" as it is a bearish "threat".  This is standard NWO Niall Ferguson using bearishness to sway public opinion away from anything other than a Federal Europe.   

Listen carefully to what Ferguson is saying, because it's a very clever switcheroo.

What Ferguson said is that the entire idea of a monetary union ("if one goes back to 1989") has always been an eventual Federal Europe.  This is PATENTLY FALSE.   The monetary union proponents swore up and down that a Federal Europe was not on the table in order to push the monetary union through.   To suggest now that Germany is somehow deviating from the original plan is a COMPLETE re-writing of history.

...which is what Ferguson is best at.

Ferguson is trying to position Germany as a player that is somehow defying consensus, and breaking with what was a supposed unwritten pact between European nations.

This is ABSOLUTELY counter to Maastricht which is very clear about the union being monetary, and about sovereign nations retaining sovereignty.   Ferguson is attempting to position Germany as a "bad player".   But there is no possible reading of Maastricht to support this.

He's full of shit.  And he's attempting to use Henry Paulson-style "scare tactics" to ram through a Federal Europe at the last minute. 

When one considers that a Federal Europe represents a conquering of all sovereign nations in one fell-blow,  Ferguson is basically trying to push through the ultimate blitzkrieg.   


mcguire's picture

glad to see so many ZH posters clearly identify NF as a globalist cheerleader.   what makes less sense to me is how this will play out.  starting with the maxim "order ab chao", and with the premise that the ultimate hegelian synthesis desired is Federal Europe, i simply do not see how the "threat" of a series of bank runs get you there.  just the "threat" is simply not enough chaos to justify the new order.  the savior (centralized power) is still too much associated with the cause of the problem.  

no, i would argue that the bank runs, and subsequent global ripple effects, a derivative explosion, and a massive global destruction of paper wealth and consolidation of real assets under statist power will be necessary.. the chaos must be "9/11-style", must be palpable.. a simple underwear bomber will not do.  

so then what is NF doing here?  i would argue that it is more "predictive programming"... as in "we told you the solution before it was too late..."

more chaos is needed.  

Surly Bear's picture

Make no mistake: this is the second great depression. We have improved our relief delivery systems, that is, we no longer need bread lines or soup kitchens because we have a host of alternatives; however, this is a depression, we are all suffering, and will continue to suffer. 

Popo's picture

And make no mistake, that during depressions we will see the ultimate power-plays for world domination.

The "Federal Europe" that Ferguson is pretending has "always been the idea" is one such power-play.

The banks are very close to not only controlling their respective sovereign nations -- but to subjugating them via an extra-governmental body which they are calling a "Federal Europe", but which is really the ECB with unlimited power.



dracos_ghost's picture

The banks are very close to not only controlling their respective sovereign nations -- but to subjugating them via an extra-governmental body which they are calling a "Federal Europe", but which is really the ECB with unlimited power.

 Just like the Fed in the US.


Pinto Currency's picture


Highly recommend "The Ascent of Hooey" by Bob Landis that shows Niall Ferguson's deceptive chatter for what it is:




FlyPaper's picture

Regarding Ferguson & the DeLors commission:  

From my reading, DeLors was a *staunch* Federalist (and President of the European Commission).   Maasricht was de-federalized and very much depended on the members following the fiscal prudence laid out in the treaty.   If they didn't, it wouldn't work (my quick synopsis, but there is a lot of history about this going back to Bretton Woods).    It also appears that the present-day "blow up" was very much discussed.

So Ferguson isn't making anything up when he goes back to Delors - its just that the European sovreign countries were unwilling to do the Federalism approach.  They appear to have continued with the EURO on the grounds that the members would follow the fiscal disciplines.  At the onset this was predicted to be harder for the smaller European countries.

At this point without the Federalism, the system is likely to collapse, since the guardrails were breached by pretty much all member states.

There is no way that a Federal system is going to be put-into-place in time to stem the banking crisis (which may well deepen); so what is the EU left with?   The alternative is a full-European coup ala the European Parliment / bankers / et al.

Not that I don't think Ferguson isn't FOR the Federalism; but at this point, short of it - COLLAPSE should be expected.

The MAJOR thing I picked up on was the game could be up, and the crisis on, within as little as a few weeks.

-->  While we see rehashed plan-after-plan that generates liquidity through monkey-business Euro-bonds.  In every case, Germany is expected to fill the hole.   I think this is impossible.  The Germans do not have the ability to bail everyone else out.  



Oh regional Indian's picture

Joyful, I hear you. 

But then , if one keeps diving into the rabbit hole of who controls who and what, around the top of the mountain, as it should, things get misty.

The Order of the Garter is one of those dis-orders that give one pause for thought. They (Brits) got Japan a long time ago when they made one of Japan's puppet emperor's a member of the garter clan. He promptly sold off his country, it's gold, the works. Very select membership.

Then there His Nastiness pRince Phillip with the WWF and clearly stated Eugenic goals. And the Royal Family holdings, by treaty, massive. Check this out when you have the time, good set of videos, all very intereting and thought-provoking.

But then the Q bows to the Lord Mayor of the City of L. Hmmmm...that throws a spanner because it means the red-crossed ones are the big daddies.

And then there is the Vatican. 

Oh, did I mention the reptilians? Anyways,.. y'see?

Actually, what DO you see? Looks like Turkey is being played as the Israel foil. Do turks understand that? 

Because it makes sense that Constantine's spawn will ultimately go home to roost?


EDIT: He did say Economy, dagnamit...

JOYFUL's picture

Turks are playing the long game against powers they know to be capable of suicidal mania...they aim to come out on top no matter who wins.

Their fear of the Persians' innate cultural superiority makes them unable to ever fully commit to going with the east, whilst they know well that the sionist entity which controls the west has designs on regaining control of all of the 'sacred' sites of the sabbatai, and also have a major revenge complex for the Ottoman's showing up the sevi as a pathetic kind of sideshow bob loser back in the C17th.

Fact is, these millenialist maniacs have designs on all the cabbalist power centers of their european travels...the whole CLUB MED collapse has been engineered to regain the ascendancy of the venetian banking power and their lurianic blackmagician metaphysics...Italy, Spain and Greece are all being lined up for a neofeudal nightmare run from Salonika.  Turks have a long history as pillagers...they wait and go for the spoils, after the fighting is over...and the Germans are merely clownish backstoppers in short pants for the puppetmasters with the anglicized names.

Oh regional Indian's picture

My plane had force-landed in Constantinople (Istanbul) airport. Cracked Windshield on a 747 (FWIW).

I have to say, back then (1995), there was a very menacing energy all around. The Military were everywhere, very guns felt opressive. 

Though the cty, with it's reachiing minarets looked amazing.

Definitely on my visit list.

Thanks for your POV. The energy in the ME is just so crazy. All because of oil. Mammon.


Ahmeexnal's picture

Turkey will have a hard landing.

Once the eurozone collapses into another Dark Ages  and without NATO support, Turkey will have to face justice for Meds Yeghern and the ongoing genocide against the Kurdish nation.

Turkey will take a considerable territorial loss once the Kurdish nation is established.  However, that will be offset by considerable territorial gains as Turkey will lay claim to vast areas of Germany, where turks (and moslems in general) are already being labeled as a threat to the "purity" of Germany.

The eurozone will crumble and give rise to the rebirth of a euro-caliphate.

Time to go long tinfoil fezzes.  Or is tinfoil feces?

CPL's picture

It sad to say but correct.  Canada is still very much paying the Queen as we always have.  Independance is a complete fiction once in the "commonwealth" (for who?).


sunaJ's picture

It is indeed absurd to me to suggest, as Ferguson does, and where we are at the stage in this crisis of bank runs, that the solution is to "follow the logical conclusion" of further monetary union.  Bank runs represent a lack of confidence in the administrators of that system - the banks and politicians.  They do not know what they are doing but think they do and flatly deny any reasonable criticism.  Adding eurobonds does not fix anything, it would perhaps buy more time in the debt vortex, and offers opportunity for those that have billions to make and lose more billions, to socialize greater debt and privatize more gains. 

There was never any contemplation in the creation of the EMU for a member state to exit.  The height of arrogance. The only way you can do this is if you believed that the EMU would always be a virtuous and workable system for all members.  That kind of thinking is obscenely ignorant.  Greece is not the cause of this crisis and you will never hear any culpability of the bloated investment mechanisms of foreign entities that would implosively cascade through the system in the collapse of a small nation economy.  Brittle as glass, and to imply that now all will be destroyed if we do not double down on this fallible model of economic engineering is, ladies and gentlemen, FASCISTIC!  Democracy apparently does not matter anymore, we are expected to be swayed well enough by the fear of the collapse caused by a global failing system.  Germany AND Greece would be mad to think of such a thing as a solution in any sense of the word.

BTW, remember the world when you invested in something because you believed in it, you took a risk because you could actually lose or gain wealth?  Now, losses can be imagined away with hedges, CDS and a dozen mechanisms that contrive no risk on investment.  Fucking cowardice, money-for-nothing, fraud and wishful-thinking are what motivate these markets.  What a waste.

Michael's picture

Controlled opposition.

LTCM_L.P.'s picture


you hit the nail right on the head.  There are no balls or reality on wall street. Check out Isle of Man TT...risk their lives b/c they love to ride, no big paycheck, no kardashian fame...just to be the best at something they love.

"BTW, remember the world when you invested in something because you believed in it, you took a risk because you could actually lose or gain wealth?  Now, losses can be imagined away with hedges, CDS and a dozen mechanisms that contrive no risk on investment.  Fucking cowardice, money-for-nothing, fraud and wishful-thinking are what motivate these markets.  What a waste"

Temporalist's picture

It's not just Wall St.  People are going to wake up all over the world and once again realize that the universe cares nothing about them and their "beliefs" about the "safety" that they "deserve" or about their children or pensions, etc. 

The world is still dog-eat-dog but lately the dogs have been sated by feasting on free debt money doled out by people making exponentially more from it than the 99%.  When the money spigots turn off, dogs will be dogs.

Ricky Bobby's picture

"With Ate by his side come hot from hell, 

Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice 

Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war; "

Ghordius's picture

there is a difference between being allowed to exit and being willing to bear the political cost of exiting.

all this talk about a monetary union being so-and-so just forgets the reason of being of the EUR: the mighty global reserve currency dollar.

as you correctly say, "Greece is not the cause of this crisis", this is all collateral damage.

The sad truth is that the euro construct will hold (in suspence) until we literally see which side the penny drops. Perhaps in the next weeks with JPM or in a longer timeframe.

The height of arrogance is not a monetary union where every nation has to keep it's fiscal house in order, this kind of environment is relatively stable - as seen for hundreds of years where gold and silver were money and a Treasury was filled with (literally) warchests.

The height of arrogance is ZIRP forever paired with a legal banking derivatives pyramid to the moon.


RiverRoad's picture

Bank runs?  Not all that different from "market runs", eh what?  It in the end it's in the hands of the people and they WILL vote the banksters out..... one way or another.

Popo's picture

They'll vote the bankers out?   I humbly beg to differ.

Which party was the anti-banker party in the last election? 

Which party will be the anti-banker party in the next election?

There is no choice.   You simply get a choice of management team -- either of which will implement subtely different flavors of the same agenda.

Treeplanter's picture

His key point is the euro can't work unless the states yield to a central authority and they knew that in '89 but went ahead with this farce.  The Brits saw the folly and stayed with the pound.  But insolvency is too vast fot any solution but default. 

DeadFred's picture

You may be right about this being a trap for all the little bears but I we've been getting a lot of NWO gloom posts on ZH and I suspect these are more instructional than diversional. My translation would be: "We are in the process of creating a large financial crisis in order to steal even more control over your lives and we want your fear to aid in our efforts"

Ghordius's picture

OR "we are going to create some more crisis in Greece and Europe so that you are distracted from what is happening with JP Morgan, the hundreds of trillions of dollars holes that can open up in the derivatives world and the effects of ZIRP-forever on a Treasury bond market that watches how the US deficits are supposed to go on at those levels for the next five years, minimum.

I still hear that bookies in Britain don't take any bets anymore for Greece leaving the eurozone. If you can't have a bet on this anymore - is it not something like a Schroedinger's Cat symptom? ;-)

sunaJ's picture

It is the attempt to engineer a trifle part of what is an economic disaster of Gordian complexity. ;)

Popo's picture

Or there will only be threats of a crisis.  And those threats will be used to frighten lawmakers into another round of pro-banker policies which stave off collapse but make the bankers even wealthier.

The Big Ching-aso's picture



"Until it happens, it doesn't happen.    In the meantime I'm preparing for either event."

-The Big Ching-aso


eclectic syncretist's picture

His solution is to consolidate governmental power in the institutions that created this mess.  Nice one numbnuts.  How about a real solution, one that ensures future prosperity for as many as possible.


Now it the time to focus on how we got here, wipe out the crooks, and end institutionalized debt and leverage in our economy.

bank guy in Brussels's picture

It's indeed good for ZH to be cautious about these ultra-establishment people like Niall Ferguson, who at times does rather awfully pump for the Anglo-American war and imperialism machine.

One can be 'bearish' for the wrong reasons ... like for setting up the next 'intervention' by governments or central banks etc. on behalf of the establishment.

Ditto for Stratfor and other people tied to the big company - CIA establishment. They are not as obvious as Mossad's DebkaFile but some people are subtler than others.

The most dangerous propaganda comes from the ultra-slick people who mix lies very cleverly with some truth.

Things are bad enough now, they are bringing in the propaganda 'reserve elites', they are not just leaving it to the normal liars and pumpers.

AUD's picture

ZH cautious?

They've been pimping the likes of Niall Ferguson & Nigel 'martial law' Farage for some time. Farage continually berates the EU while taking their money as a Euro parliamentarian! What a cocksucker.

Aziz's picture

Farage is a decent, truth-loving human being, like Ron Paul. A rare characteristic in a politician.