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Are The Europeans About To Start The Second Half Of Our Great Depression?
"Just when we think the worst is over - and let's face it we have been in this crisis for five years - we get the second half; are the Europeans about to start the second half our Great Depression with massive bank runs" are the Jaws-music-inspired words that recent media-favorite (yes, us too) Niall Ferguson uses in an interview with CBC. His main concern is that this kind of (bank-run) event can quickly spiral out of the control of even the ECB as he uncomfortably conjures the image of the initial US stabilization that occurred in 1930 to May 1931 only to be knocked back into a greater depression by the failure of Credit-Anstalt, which set off bank failures and eventually defaults in 1932 on many government debts. The deposit run potential is the single-biggest reason to care about Greek-exit - in itself it is not large enough economically to interfere with global growth but it is the message and contagion that it sends that is critical in bringing forth a pan-European banking crisis and implicitly spilling over to the US and Asia via global trade and banking transmission channels. An excellent brief interview that summarizes the exact fears that face Europe and implicitly the US, explains the rather simple solution of fiscal federalism and the fact that today's German politik is very different from 1989's Helmut Kohl-era with regard to their commitment to the Federal outcome. His conclusions are worrisome. Germany is the key - and there is not a good understanding of financial markets in Berlin.
Six minutes well-spent on a Saturday evening...
Europe is a part of North America's destiny because the financial systems are so intertwined - and remember even the all-knowing Fed massively under-estimated the second-order effects of Lehman.
"It's a total fantasy to think that the meltdown that I am discussing that could happen in a matter of weeks would not have a major impact on North America's prospects of sustained recovery."
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Isn't all of Enlgand a Rothschild stooge?
Remember H. Ford (188 billion dollars wealth) tried to keep that crap at bay and look what happened.
Yes Tom, have a green
England is totally under control of the banking cartels and torn this way and that by vested interests from the arabs to russia but overall its old money.
check this link to an article about the rothschilds in the apparently 'kosher' daily telegraph of the UK.
the first comment was by someone called 'moraymint'
i read that comment and it was not antisemitic (the usual cry for performing a critique of any banker) - it simply gave a history of the rothschilds and mentioned the bilderberg group.
Hey presto - comment removed.
Strange they are going to hand over england to islam though - i guess they'll move on to the next 'host'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/countryside/9017859/Lord-Rothschild-My-...
Please read it - with the comments at the end these is an interesting discussion of people baffled at what MSM censorship can be like.
Just shows to go you how in the end it always gets down to war and the Rothschilds.
hey zh'ers- is that tonywilson of bildergburger.org fame?
and tom- i think they played 'both sides against the middle' but as far as i know ford still got paid.
Guess, Germany can just say this to rest of the world in the aftermath:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RvNS7JfcMM
Comng from the asshole who wants to attack Iran. He's about as objective as Bibi. Always someone else's fault. And is 3-5 days Niall or 3-5 weeks?? What an inconsistent wanker!
Looks like the wolf is knocking on the PIGS door as we speak.
France, Spain and Italy are on board Niall? Well why didn't you say so?
After hearing his comments, I think fiscal responsibility is somehow related to ones distance from the equator.
High finance, so easy a child could do it.
I feel like i need to shower after listening to that slimeball! What an elitist douchebag!!!
Everywhere I turn, I read and hear about the "US recovery" - simply not imploding does not a recovery make. Regardless to Bob Pisani's endless assurances - the US will fall down with the rest of the world like it or not.
Thats not necessrily true. Look what happened after WW2. The USA grew exponentially while the rest of the World Failed. Don't ever discount grandchildren of the greatest generation.
On the other hand, we did fall flat on our face with the rest of the world BEFORE WWII.
We didn't actually recover until afterwards. But even then, it probably helped that so much of the rest of the world's infrastructure and factories were blown up in the war and they asked us to help them rebuild.
The US had a one in a million opportunity after WW2. Almost all of Europe and Asia were devastated or under developed. The middle east and central America had little economic power. The US had an intact infrastructure, abundant natural resources and seemingly endless farmland. The US fed the world after WW2. The global markets were no where near as intertwined as they are now.
I would be shocked if the US decoupled and continued to grow while the rest of the world contracts.
Yes we had an advantage but mainly it was our system - rule of law, individual rights, ability to preserve and invest capital, low taxes - that made the miracle possible. Russia possesses the biggest breadbasket in the world but had to import food due to the nature of their regime. As one of the Tylers noted, never has a nation grown so rapidly with a government so small.
Good point. That's why we need a restoration of our system, not a transformation.
We also had a valid currency then. Nixon had not yet destroyed it.
Grandchild of the greatest generation....
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/documents/bizarre/shoplifter-went-on-piggly-wiggly-rampage-789304
I just watched Ferguson's Civilization on PBS the other evening. He went on and on about slavery being the "original sin" of the US. More like our ultimate downfall Niall.
PBS? NBC is less biased.
I have to agree. It not only contradicted the American idea of innate equality but was an obvious embarrassment to those who proclaimed liberty for all individuals. It was an endless source of contention and the first impetus for the Civil War. It led to uprooting millions and endless racial conflict. So I'd have to agree that slavery was an original sin - one that we have been trying to earn forgiveness for ever since.
The US has been under-estimated since it's inception.
True. But periodically we get a grizzley bear market, so, periodically, it's over estimated.
The rest of the world "failed" (for 10-15 years) after WWII because it has had the living shit bombed out of it and vast swaths of it's most productive citizens laid to waste on endless battlefields. Get Stephen Ambrose's wanker out of your eye and read some history.
Read some history. Just skip over the 20 million Civilians killed by the German/Russian turf war for Europe.
Vlad seems to me Europe and the rest of the world has been shitbombed as we currently know IT. And doesnt Greece and most of Southern Europe have most of its productive citizen laid to waste?
Since 2007
Nikkei 225 - Down 50 Percent
Shanghai - Down 60 Percent
FTSE - Down 18 Percent
CAC - Down 18 Percent
Canada SPTSX - Down 13.74 Percent
Germany - Down 11.5 Percent
Italy - Down 70 percent
Spain - Down 70 Percent
Switzerland - Down 40 Percent
Usa - Down 7 percent
Mexico - Up 7 Percent since 2007
Brazil - No Change
Sing along with me. Its the end of the Euro as we know it and I feel fine.
We'll know just where to find them. Still living at home on the sofa of the children of the "greatest generation."
And I suppose thats their fault huh? Go ahead take the Social Security. You deserve it.
.
At that point in history the U.S. was an oil exporting nation. Our factories were brand new. We were the only nuclear power and much of Europe and Japan was a smoldering ruin.
Today we are an importer of two thirds of the oil we consume, our heavy industry has rusted out and been sold for scrap. And, our under class is approaching majority political status. We are on our way back to the 19th century with all that implies.
Pisani is paid well to be a cheerleader.
Pissanti is the biggest douche on CNBC-and that is saying something
Otto S.: One of the greatest soldiers of all time, and possibly the original special forces soldier (also, probably not a Rothschild's favorite). Anyway, great name.
Pissanti is the biggest douche on CNBC-and that is saying something
Chocolate production is up...
Clear and articulate, makes it easy to understand. The meltdown comes anyway, even if they could get something in place which it doesn't look like they are going to before June 17th at the earliest. Going to be a difficult several weeks for the markets, this will be worse then the Facebook dominance of the financial news.
The non-financial mainstream media hardly talks about it for obvious reasons. I was at a house warming party today with about 50 people or so, and everyone I talked to was barely aware of it. Most did know about the JP Morgan debacle though :) Some people were actually surprised and seemed totally unaware that Greece and Spain were in some serious problems with banks runs and such. Amazing.
The solution offered by the interviewee was that German must become suckers to pay for PIIGS.
The issue is then: Will German be sucker enough to pay for other people's enjoyment?
I am not a German. I don't know the answer. But I doubt German is that dumb.
I am not German either but I know they are severe and unforgiving. They started the last two world wars. They probably look at these "PIGS" worse than the Jews. If I was to guess on what they want its for an end to the party PIGS and for them to put THEIR money in THEIR banks.
Your "greatest generation" bombed German cities to ruins and killed or imprisoned most of the German men by war's end. Before the fires were out, German women were cleaning and stacking bricks for rebuilding. "Severe and unforgiving" were the victors.
Haben Sie noch vermissen Adolf? Three-Strikes und du bist aus dem Spiel.
Kindkian. The Germans Massacred over 40 million people. They had to be stopped. You are messed up man.
Right, Tom. And I don't like the way they twirl their mustaches, squint their eyes, hold their cigarettes palms up, and rudely ask "Papers, Please!". Yep, you have a good feel for the modern Germany.
:-)
Well put, sir.
Tom is a douche.
That label was already taken by Don Deutsch.
History was not as black and white as you learned on cable televsion. Sure, Hitler and many others were criminals and too little Germans did someting against them Hitler had also powerful supporters in the US. Only one example: http://www.traces.org/henryford.html
A German vendetta has a slightly different impact than other ones. What does an American vendetta look like?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=t19kvUiHvAE
You guys are right Germany is playing along nicely aren't they.
No they are not. Europe can survive better than in the 1930's depression just on tourism from Asia. Plus no sign of imminent wars other than possibly nuclear exchange with Iran.
As in the US, they can produce enough food for everyone with only a small percent of the labor force.
Euro's invented almost all of modern technology. They are not going to faint at the sight of some bank problems and give up. This is trivial compared to the ruin bought about with WWI WWII and the aftermath.
Tis an optimistic view you share and you are right about things like food production.
Howeve, when the Greeks keep reminding their bankers the Germans of things like the Holocaust while Greek tourism is dropping it breeds nationalism, which Einstein describes as the measles of mankind.
We were capable of world war two and the events which proceeded it. Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan are a few places which suffered through war since the last big one. Anti immigration sentiment is starting to rear its ugly head everywhere from what I read and see.
You honestly don't think number three won't happen or another great depression iss in the cards for us?
I would hope not, but the bullshit I read everyday seems to support a rerun.
Yes European Americans invented almost all of modern technology. I have no clue what the Old World did besides porn and BMW's.
Second the Asian's are only going to go for so many 80 dollar French breakfasts before they decide they are getting ripped off.
US is no slouch at inventions. But the first hundred years of US technology advance was primarily copying UK wholesale. It was UK that invented engines, trains and mechanized factories. Much of chemistry was invented by Germans and French and the US did not make a lot of progress on this until confiscating German US operations in WWI. Nuclear was done in US by European Jew refugees mostly. US rockets were built by the same Nazi's that made the V2 which is essentially what the US rockets were. More recently antibiotics (UK), tranquilizers (Swiss), LSD (Swiss), high speed trains (all).
Europe fainted the last time liberal economics collapsed 100 years ago. You seem to think things happen in isolation.
There's some truth in what you say, but I don't think we can be too complacent about how smoothly things will run if there is economic chaos.
We've seen 100s of thousands of people die of starvation around the world while the U.S. paid farmers not to plant, and while grain was overflowing the silos. Even when foreign aid was flown in to some African nations, armed conflict often prevented it from getting to its destination in time.
If there was an economic meltdown strikes and riots wouldn't be too surprising. That in turn can disrupt planting &/or distribution of food. Much of that production is also dependent upon fuel, much of which is imported. That could be complicated by an economic meltdown as well.
There was an article on ZH awhile back, if I recall, about a jump in deaths from 3rd world type diseases in Greece. Diseases that are normally treated fairly easily with modern medicine.
I'm sure they'll get through it, but it might be more than a little speedbump in the road.
We're also seeing the rise of more radicals in the political arena.
Braudel points out in his massive "Capitalism and Civilization" (the best detailed history of the what, when, where, how and why markets rose) that since the Middle Ages, no capitalist country has suffered the famines that were so frequent up to that time. Trade, new ideas, new products, scientific development and capital investment - missing in the areas that still experience framine - have given us a steady food supply that even 100 years ago would have been unimaginable.
What worries me is a State takeover (a la Atlas) of food production and allocation, thereby guaranteeing starvation. All ZH posters talking about raising their own food...that was possible when 70% lived on farms but today the figure is 2%.
And we've been condemned to repeat history one more time. What a pity when the banksters had invented such a perfectly beautiful farce.
" Europe can survive better than in the 1930's depression just on tourism from Asia."
I thought you were kidding and started laughing before I read the rest of your comment.
Lucky for Europe that no one has decided to exercises some military muscle. Now that the EU has transferred the last Euro from the military to the social/state/bank systems, the continent is denuded except for nukes and special forces. It's much worse than 17 years ago when Europe bit her nails as slaughters reigned in the Balkans.
Good opportunity for the Russians but they seem to be even more disorganized. The Moslems have no need to attack as they are taking over by immigration anyway.
how about a nial ferg amnesty.
anyone read his revisionist propaganda on the rothschild and warburgs such nice families so caring always buying flowers for dere mommies and all.
next we will be getting martin amis blaming islam.
thank god christopher hitchens is dead or the queen would be wheeling him out so he could blame iran for the collapse.
this guy gets a million a year from roths shield outfit glg partners but that is not important because everything he says is truth cos he is a scholar and a historian and a scot cos they never lie.
Go Germany. Send that prick Ferguson back to live with his den of globalist theives in England. He makes Harvard like like a cookie cutter for treasonous pigs. Just what the NWO order needs is a United States of Europe. Myself: Better dead than a slave. Give me liberty or give me death. I'm for the country of Pennsyvania, Transylvania, California. The smaller the better. Its how you use it. Not that the eye teeth were the only genetic anomoly. Just saying.
Hopefully, the debt slavery is a fantasy, as US citizens love to perceive themselves as victims when they are the victimizers.
So that will be US citizen liberty instead of death, which is the same for everyone.
The problem with tiny states is that they cannot whether major catastrophes - economic or physical. The US weathered the collapse of Michigan although it is still losing population. It absorbs the absurdity of CA and IL. But if these were nations.... The same is true of natural disasters. A terrible earthquake, volcano or flood may harm CA, WY or IA but the nation as a whole is resilient.
I'm sure a bailout/nationalization is coming any minute now to Europe.
Just look at the awe-inspiring U.S. Fed led by Bernanke, who achieved the impossible feat of tanking interest rates and commodity prices while printing trillions and skying retail and REIT stocks.
I bet the European plutocrats are on the phone right now getting the playbook before all the bank runs get out of hand.
Just when it feels like everything is going to implode, some miracle happens to save the day.
Just watch.
Just like the last. Some miracle.
A miracle. Thats a good one. Thanks for the laugh.
We all know economics is a hard science in which policy controls produce repeatable outcomes.
http://i41.tinypic.com/nv2z43.jpg
Ha ha. Good one.
RobotTrader - you are on the mark buddy.
Great to see you back, Robot. The old C.S. site has been dieing since the day you left. The Old Man is still pissing off his 12 person audience.
C.S. Lewis?
We'll be watching.
RB and Do chen, old timers day.. Robo may be right they have been successful for some time in patching, gluing, bondoing this patched up ponzi together.. Wake me up when the grocery store is emptying out and real riots with distended bellies leading the way are on CNBC..
i, for one, won't be asleep if and when that happens.
Hey robo did you get in FB at a good price?
The Germans will lose either way. If the Euro is to survive, then the Germans must pay to support it. If the Euro fails, then the former Euro countries return to their domestic currencies, which will then revalue to appropriate levels, and thus decimate the current German export market, both from a cost and an affordability perspective. In truth, the only soution is the hard medicine of reality, tempered by temporary (and that means temporary) actions to soften the transition for those ready to change. An interesting study of how this should, and should not, be done can be found in the actions of various former COMECON (East European) nations when transitioning to a market economy. A fascinating example is that of Leszek Balcerowicz, who "cold turkeyed" Poland into a market economy in the early 1990's. While not all of his actions were, in hindsight, effective and the parallel privitization program was not without its faults (which hampered market oriented efforts), the long term results in terms of economics and, more importantly, societal persective of the realities of "you get what you can pay for" economic systems, has seved that country well today. Their GDP since 2008 is the envy of many other European countries. The trick is in getting society to understand what their efforts amount to in terms of real value and thus what level of lifestyle can be afforded. Of course, along with that you need to have a market system, not a high finance system, which turns productive enterprise into first a casino, and subsequently into a target for indiscriminate looting. That said, the Euro must fail, TPTB MUST lose their holdings in the banks that subsequently fail (equity, bonds, levers of power, jobs, etc) and any government bailouts must be used to retain liquidity in the productive economy. There will be many losses in the public sector as the economy rebalances, but that is the nature of a market economy. Some temporary (and that means temporary) assistance to those losing jobs can be provided to assist in transitioning to productive economic activities, but otherwise, only tough medicine will provide the reality check that our current societal perceptions of lifestyle require. As for TPTB, well, they must be neutered. Do what Iceland did - lock them all up while you make the tough decisions - this way they cannot influence (bribe) the politicians. After all is done, let them out again and tell them that the days of priviledge are over. Will this happen - probably not, but this is what needs to be done for the sanity of Europe. As to the US, well, a very similar perscription would apply - it's just that TPTB are so deaply ingrained into the Washington environment that neutering them is almost impossible. The US may well be F**ked!.
Uh-huh, Germany was suffering terribly with it's own currency prior to entering the euro... Riiiiight.
Mr Niall Ferguson,Harvard cleaver as he might be,wont question that:
But seems he is not quite on the marks,this collosos,they construted,called the Union,was never,by politicians words in the begining to be!
I remember how they praised this mantra,back in the begining,we shall lift the southeren Europe on to our standarts,our (Danish)prime minister,Poul Schulter, doomed the union stone death,but it wasnt.
So,you dont lie to your public and expect them to fall down on their knees and begging,for something THEY said was out of the question,was not to be,would never happend,and while time passed every one could se the damn lie:A litle fact,we(when i lived there)paid Polish and other easteren workers,through our hard earned money 4.8 billion kr only in socalled diet deduction in 2008 just to loose our jobs,(still bricklayer 59 years old,but left the shithouse),where the h.ll Mr Niall is the logic in this equastion,then put the Child surport on to this,cause they have a right for that to,and put more on the unemployment line,and then give me the logic in this,and i am talking about one year only.
And i dont say we shouldnt help Easteren Europe,thats plain logic,but not by theft or lies by a Technocratic elite,that dont do anything else but lie,Harvard Academic or not,wont bow to stupidity,with a broken back,whilst they sip Champange!If the truth had been told from the beginning,the stance would have been different,the litle though i know about the Nuts and Bolts in the Derived High Frequency Tradet world!Aint a plummer!
I enjoy blaming Europe just as much as any other Real American. The truth is our institutions have so much debt and are fragile from our own inability to say "we can't afford it". A deflationary wave from anywhere will knock our institutions and political machines down for the count.
The good news is that the economy and a lot of our people have insulated themselves from the failure of these large institutions so when they finally do fail (as most expect them to) it will be a beginning and not an end.
Agree on your comment Scahct Mat,but solidarity it wasnt ,from the Polish,even though they had a Union of this so solidariticly name,they flooded contrys with cheap workers,without education,and that one startet back in the early 90th,my Union was trying to shout up the Police about it in these days,but you know what,nothing happend,so to call Poland a succes,thats a modified Monsanto Corn,thats a succes to,if you want to grow Monsanto forever!
But yes now they have the money,OURS!And OUR work!Solidarity=Cant find this mening in the dictionary!
Ferguson doesn't seem to get that the Germans don't have reason enough not to surrender their money and their identity over to the NWO banksters. Go figure Niall.
Oh what fun!
This is like pushing Granny down the stairs and watching it play back in slow motion.
Reminds me of Eddie Murphy's skit with grandma falling down the stairs.
Delerious, Thanks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VgaqOXUCJA
+1...That is Funny, nice call.
Wow! A Toole of the Rothschilds wants to consolidate power in the hands of a larger European state. Well, at least Europeans will know for sure of who to fight against if they want to remain free. Its do or die time for the Rothschilds. No doubt if they don't get their European super police state, they have a plan "B". Plan "B" is hyperinflation and war. Or perhaps deflation and war.
Fuck you Rothschilds!
I won't fight your war.
I am in full agreement with I am on to you. Polish politics makes about as much sense as the 3 stooges played on fast forward using the real time Swahili translate feature. And Balcerowicz got swatted by his own people in the end. Interestingly, as that country is quite educated, it was natural economic forces resulting from the market based reality check that ended up driving many less capable people out of the country to look for work elsewhere at whatever the market would bear. It also drove those very people's children to become much more educated and that is part of the success that they enjoy today. Part of the problem that Ireland has is that so many of their high tech firms packed up and moved to Poland in the last 5 years. Yeah - they work for less and they spend less, but that is precisely what market realities mean. They can no longer live off of the communist system teat producing shoddy stuff nobody wants and consider that value to society. In many ways that is true of a lot of our current government services when measured against their impact on our economies. But this is not the only problem. The 0.1% (or 0.01% - depending who you ask) have to also be reigned in. Make money - OK. Use your money to favourably influence the system in your favour - NO - hell NO! The Poles did not do a good job there, and in fact that is a fundamental problem in all first world economies today.
If it weren't for the ability to immigrate to another country where the jobs and pay were better, the Poles would be in a much poorer situation today, much like neighbor Belarus. A similar diaspora of Latin Americans is underway in North America. The difference is those Poles were called "legal immigrants". Another Irish diaspora is underway, thanks to those wonderful PTB in the City.
And in the Polish case - I include Solidarity in the 0.1%. They were a tremendous political and societal movement that was instrumental in bringing down a corrupt, oppressive and globally dangerous political system, but that did not make them experts in economics and giving them entitlements for past services was one of the great failures of the Polish model. As I said, there are both successes and failures in any such activities and not reigning in Solidarity was a huge failure in the Polish case. After all, how can you move the country to a market based system while simultaneously priviledging those who happen to belong to a large union (you know - the same way that Communist party officials were priviledged in Eastern European countries under Soviet domination). Bad move there.
I think we are in the Kondratiev winter... Well, if you believe in cycles
http://www.safehaven.com/article/16716/stock-cycles-may-2010
You don't need to believe in cycles. You can perform a spectrum analysis of the stock markets and country GDP going back decades to see whether or not there are cycles.
Most ZH'ers have been saying this for years. Ferguson is a sycophant for the elites and that's all. A true hypocrite and fascist.
Ferguson is a tool. Herr Hegel would be proud.
Amanda Lang, CBC journalist interviewing Niall, is a bit of alright. Amanda Drury also is a bit of alright, but at the other end of the spectrum. Each Amanda is beautfitful in her own way,
As the euro sinks and the dollar becomes stronger, USA exports will be choked off and the EU depression will spread like wildfire to USA and China who rely on exporting "stuff" to the EU....not to mention the bank contagion described here in detail on ZH.
The SHTF very soon I'm afraid.
Bullish for Angel Dust for Washington and Europe empty suits, Sarchi sounds niiiiiice. Just truly damn stupid, the director of aliens knew.
"We're gonna need a bigger boat bank"
Germans or not Germans. Pay or not pay. Play or not pay. The man said the only word that matters, "Confidence". Once it is gone all is lost. Without it the govs and bankers have NOTHING.
The only thing that backs the dollar or any fiat out there is the "confidence" the people have in it. When that is gone, it is game over. That rock of confidence is starting to crack. They better get it under control and quick or this thing could "run" away fast. The mobile web can make a bank run all over the world at the speed of light.
404 bank website not found.
After confidence is gone it gets down to your military, bank-rolled by central bankers' gold....and the Rothchilds.
I've listened to many Ferguson presentations. What got to me about this interview is that he seemed to be on the side of the banks which may not be the case. He may be authentically worried. Still, the financial understanding of Germany probably doesn't have much to do with their distaste for Federalism. Look on the bright side there will be less chance of bankster drones over Europe if Germany does not succumb to the tyranny of the banking cartel. It is a no win situation and Ferguson seems to be expressing which side he is on.
It'd be a lot easier to complete economic integration if they had an inspiring example somewhere. Instead, they've got an inspiring failure. The US isn't exactly enjoying the outcome you want. China? Heh.
What?! You mean to tell me that a NWO global goverment isn't written in humanity's DNA?
I had no idea.....lol
Maybe Berlin has realized that Federalization will make no difference what-so-ever. The problem is vast unresolvable cultural differences. New York and California send money to Nebraska every day with no riots in the street. But Nebraska is more like New York than Bavaria is like Schleswig-Holstein; that is, at their core, the states of Germany are less alike than the states of America. Forget France, Spain and Italy.
Admittedly, a federalized europe would have been more stable than this. But would it actually be sustainable, or only come apart later? The USA fought the Civli War over essentially the same issues: economic inequality between the South and North. 650,000 men, 5% of the population, DIED deciding the issue. If Europe were federalized and could find a Lincoln, we might see a repeat of that level of committment. But the flimsy dystopia we have now is simply not worth saving.
I don't think Federalization wil make any difference at all, it will just be much more violent in the break up.
that, and the amount of debt is also simply too big
Kicking the can one more time is US citizen typical whish and want.
US citizen economics are not sustainable in a finite environment. During their short history, US citizens have stolen much environment, biggest robbers in history of mankind.
Their known solution to get protected from the explosion of their expansion ponzi going out of breath: blobbing up.
They have no other.
US citizens have built a world of quasi certainty.
Nail Fergie is to history as Henry Kissinger is to politics. They both sprinkle their “analysis” with just enough factual anecdotes to seem to be plausible justifications for their conclusions. The problem with both is that under even just a little critical scrutiny you realize that they are lying, manipulating psychopaths that would enslave and kill all good people to maintain their status and positions. Whenever the mainstream media (and especially the cultural Marxist capstone PBS) push someone such as this Rothschild clown, be afraid, be very afraid.
Ah, one US citizen hinting at the next stage of the US citizen blobbing up act: the merge between North America and Europe.
It is already in the box, US citizens are already working on that, laying it out.
European blobbing up is a done deal. And preparations for the next round are up.
"Blobbing Up"! Make me chuckle!
But what about those amazing time-traveling Indo-European American Chinese Easter Island US Citizens, whose nature is meta-eternal?
Ferguson is talking mischievous tripe.He knows better than most that Eurobonds would be against the German Constitution, German law, and EU law which forbids underwriting other countries debts.
Another small point is that the people of Germany don't want it and Germany is supposed to be a democracy.
It's like these guys get the bit between their teeth and couldn't care less about the real world. He might as well say "yeah, they need to round up the population of Illinois and ship them to Alaska, and then they should confiscate all the the cattle & guns in Texas and then we could use these resources to, etc, etc ....". Some pointy head might think this a good idea but it's not going to happen. He is an over-educated man.
Maybe overeducated (read: mind-controlled, programmed) but more likely just following orders from his globalist masters. His agenda is so transparent in this video that it is hysterical!
Your pupp cannot be president Obama will eat it or Mittens will strap it to a car.
Are The Europeans About To Start The Second Quarter Of Our Great Depression?
Fixed it for you.
Are The Europeans About To Start The Second Innings Of The Greatest Depression?
There you go - fixed. You're welcome ;)
http://affairesfamiliales.wordpress.com/articles/
Father of 4 yeaR OLD CHILD (WHO DIED FROM A VENERIAL DISEASE) GOES ON VIDEO TO ACCUSE HOLLANDE AND OTHERS OF MOLESTATION / COVERUP - SEEMS THERE WAS A COVERUP TRIED AS THE COMPLAINT FILE KEPT DISAPPEARING ....
wow, bombshell...but not mentioned in the french MSM !
Infos de dernière minute et opinions sur Le Huffington Post
Nor in the alternative netmedia press.
La Une | Mediapart
Doen't mean that this will not be rejected by the COurts for lack of concrete proof; the fact that it is acceptabe. One thing which is clear, the man implicated, Jack Lang is not seeking re-election in the parliamentary elections of June.
As for the cover up by his buddies its difficult to make stick, as the President then was Jacques Chirac and Prime Minister was socialist Jospin; not Hollande or Moscovici, they were just party bosses and did not carry any government clout.
after further research this is assumed to be false . There are way to many inconsistencies .
when the apple is rotten it is rotten to the core; its going to take a new apple to start the adage : an apple a day keeps the doctor away!
And don't forget the old adage that has always stood me in particularly good stead:
An apple rots from the head... ;)
sounds very fishy to me!
A FISH ALWAYS ROTS FROM THE HEAD DOWN - CNN iReport
Der Apfel fellt nicht gerne weit vom Baume, (the apple does not usually fall far from the tree).
Is NIall Ferguson any relation to erstwhile ZH poster Turd Ferguson ? Seems to have contracted a certain degree of verbal flatulence...
Order out of chaos bitches!
I love watching this interview, while knowing what are the REAL FACTS on the EURO re-fedualization!
Next TREND, HFBR - High Frequency Bank Runs!
Best quote of the day- NASDAQ FB limit order HFT algo trading "11:11:11.111, Please explain this clock ?"
"Finally, the decision was made to put through a fix to the systems problem and get the stock trading. That move to a secondary matching engine used the order book as it appeared at 11:11 a.m"
"Germany is the key - and there is not a good understanding of financial markets in Berlin."
Berlin understands the markets, but German interests are burried in the rubble of WW2, What we now have are players in a different story plot. NF here quoted gives wide hints on that.
He used the wrong date, instead of 1989 he meant to say 1939!
It is certainly going to happen if the new Spanish national anthem is anything to go by:
Sell !
Sell everything !
Sell it now !
We are toast !
Long live our bankers !
We are 'in a difficult position' !
(Venta! Venta de todo! Vender ahora! Somos una tostada quemada!! ¡Larga vida a nuestros banqueros. Somos fucked big time!!!)
CHEAT SHEET http://capital3x.com/think-tank/cheat-sheet-trading-subscribers/
I was a Niial fan before, from ZH but this --- I don't get it, yet
If Federalism will now save all --- why is History not supporting it
How Come The US constitution did not create a federalism that raised a Central bank and Huge Bureaucracy -- but one that limited and prevented it.
And How come England's foreign policy for centuries was to defeat one too powerful continetal power whether it be Spain, France, Germany or Russia
Now England endorses a continental union === Times they are a changing
But as Niial has said previously it is the individual contract law and rights that made western civilization great---and now he throws it all away. In favor of lying unsustainable overspending bankrupt big governement. Does he think Europeans are ethnically supeior, And that power will not corrupt.
That the only answer is more power, concentrated power -- that will solve everything
If a child fails with training wheels --- you dont give him an 18 wheeler --- so he can better keep his balance.
At least the mustashioed central planner for Europe was more forthright and direct in his plans
If you want "contract law and rights", then you have to put up with government in some form; this hasn't changed since Hobbes.
The US Constitution limited Fed power because it was required to achieve compromise across diverse colonies (and because the contingent from Virginia was brilliant).
The Clockwork Orange project of a totally teutonic Europe is dooomed no matter which way they go now.
ok i have had it ~ what a whole lot of HARVARD HORSESHIT ~ shame on you CBC ~ where is MAX KEISER when you need him!
So it is precisely that harvard meme that IS the rot, parading around as intellect, that affects us all ~ Larry Summers anyone...... harvard et.al is the most insidious and peutrid breeding ground of revision and lies and derivatives of lies which continue the likes of Goldman Sachs/JPM and washington.
EUROBONDS AND MONETARY UNION WILL SAVE THE DAY ~ HORSESHIT! TOO MUCH DEBT GOES UNSOLVED WITH MORE DEBT ~ NO MATTER WHAT NAME YOU SLAP ON IT!
did anyone else notice that niall [miss the point] ferguson failed to mention DEFAULT on unrepayable debt to be the most reasonable solution for TOO MUCH DEBT!!! WRITE OFF THE DEBT, TAKE THE SHORT TERM MARKET REACTIONS, LET PRIVATE BANKS GO UNDER AND MOVE ON WITH LIFE............COME ON WITH THE ASSURED DESTRUCTION CRAP AND PERIPHERY COUNTRIES NEED A NEW NAME FOR DEBT TO BE EUROBONDS, ITS ALL ABOUT HIDING DEBT UNDER DIFFERENT POLITICAL STRUCTURES AND NEW DEBT INSTRUMENTS FOR THESE GUYS ~ REALLY NIALL........... REALLY! ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS ALICE IN WONDERLAND REALITY OF FERGUSON'S MONETARY UNION AND FEDERALISM ~ IS CALIFORNIA MORE SOLVENT BECAUSE OF FEDERALISM! IS THE US GOVERNMENT MORE SOLVENT BECAUSE OF MONETARY UNION!
iceland did it and HAD BANKS FAIL ~ and you know what ~ life continued FORWARD!
BANK RUNS HAPPEN WHEN INSOLVENT BANKS PRETEND THEY ARE SOLVENT! SIMPLE CONCEPT.REASONABLE REACTION.
SIMPLE SOLUTION ~ DEPOSITORS ARE MADE WHOLE AND INSOLVENT BANKS........RESOLUTION TRUST ALSO KNOWN AS FAILURE!
"CENTRAL BANKS—depend on their debtors’ willingness to repay their debts. If Greece were allowed to repudiate all of its “sovereign” (governmental) debt, the EU might fragment and even the global economy might be collapsed.
The EU (and arguably, the New World Order) ultimately depend on the world’s willingness to not only repay their debts, but remain in the status of debtors."
http://adask.wordpress.com/2012/05/27/running-from-debt-running-to-gold-...
Pretty ominous scenario.
What are the benefits/risks for the "little people" in the PIIGS to move their deposits to banks in Germany etc or to convert to dollars, pounds or Swiss francs - or even just to pull deposits and hold Euro currency until/unless the storm passes? Since it's a currency union there really can't be currency restrictions against Spaniards holding funds in non Spanish banks. The only real cost is missing out on a slightly higher interest rate paid by a Spanish bank on the verge of failure, a false bargain.
If I were a PIIG depositor I'd probably opt for dollars, pounds or Swiss franks while the crisis punishes the Euro valuation, every crisis is an opportunity!
Good stuff, but he's a historian?
No matter what anyone thinks of Niall Ferguson, this is a great interview. This woman, in contrast to the vast majority of TV talking heads, is pretty sharp. Watch a few of her shows on CBC and it is clear this is no CNBC bimbo. Even Zerohedge people would like her, because she gets it. Her on-air partner is the perfect foil.
As for Ferguson, he is a great interview because he is prepared and lays out his points clearly and succinctly. Even those who label him a tool of the Illuminati can benefit by watching him. "Eurobonds and a system wide deposit guarantee" is where this is all headed, even if Germany is dragging its feet. The market may or may not applaud this solution, but give it a few weeks and this is the future. Prepare accordingly.
This is a future.
FTFY
More federalism? This is complete nonsense and will only make matters worse. EU is the problem not the solution. Northern countries are right: bailouts of Southern countries will not solve anything.
Kind of weird hearing this from him at the time Scotland is preparing for a referendum to leave the UK
Germany consists of 16 federal states. Only three of them (the South) run a budget surplus. They support all the other states.
So now the Bavarians, the people of Baden-Württemberg & Hessen are going to bailout a whole continent?
Impossible. Not going to happen.
Baden-Württemberg should secede and join Switzerland but Schauble would stay in Berlin
I do not believe what you say is true. Also can't compare a country with the EU, completely different.
Go figure... A Harvard educated professor is a Globalist and a Progressive????
Sure its true, a euro bond or "fedralism" would save the Euro zone. For the greater good (For the good of the bankers is more like it) Europeans must give up their sovereignty to "stabilize the markets.
How about this professor; let bad banks fail, deleverge and eliminate malinvestment in the system.
All you are advocating is bail outs for the elites at the cost of freedom and treasure of the masses.
Its no wonder we are doomed!
How to prepare for coming crisis
I stopped listening when Niall (what is he a WoW character?!) proclaimed to be an afficionado of Eurobondage.
This video is an excellent example of how stupid the people from harvard are. The only good solution is for the eurpoean union to just break up and everybody will be happy. Yes the world will surive - we did not have these problems prior to the Euro, trade was efficient and occured at the benefit of everyone. With modern technology trade in differnt currencies is even easier. The only people that dont like it are the central planners that want control over everybody else.
Federalism is always the answer with these central planners. They want power in the smallest number of hands possible. They are the type that live to one day bow down before some despot they call leader, lord, fuehrer, emperor, master, etc.
The South was right all along. We are reaping today the fields sown by the traitor Lincoln. The Constitution was to protect state's and individual's rights not form an all powerful federal, central government. The masses have always been stupid and easily led to the slaughter by greedy, evil men. The Irish and Italian conscripts of the North were easily duped into believing they were doing the "right" thing, when in fact they were dying so a despot like Lincoln could keep his job.
Say I am wrong all you want but hindsight is 20/20, and it is crystal clear that if states had of maintained their sovereignty over the federal government, except for those limited areas they agreed to let the feds play referee, we would not be in the mess we are in today. How foolish is it for a state to send all the money to DC so DC can then turn around and send it back (after taking their cut) to whomever they deem worthy. If the South had of won, California's problem would be California's. As it stands were are all going to pick up the tab for the bs that goes on in the people's republic of California. Why? "Because we are all in this together". Thanks to Lincoln.
Centralization is the enemy. It will always lead to totalitarianism. When it is opposed, it will seek to destroy any and all that gets in its way.
The South was right all along. We are reaping today the fields sown by the traitor Lincoln. The Constitution was to protect state's and individual's rights not form an all powerful federal, central government.
_________________
How true. How true.
US citizen US south was so respectful of states rights that they used the federal power to pass the fugitive slave act and so enamoured with individual's rights they had slaves.
My, my, my, they epitomized the 'American' spirit in some sort of way.
All I am going to address your dumbass one time and to all others that think as shallow as you do.
Fact: Lincoln made it clear that the war was not about slavery over and over in the first two years. It was only when he realized that if he made slavery an issue GB and France would not support the South.
Fact: The "Emancipation Proclamation" only freed the slaves in the South. Lincoln was afraid he would lose Maryland and a couple of other Northern states if he made it nationwide.
To paint the South up as the big bad slavers and the North as the savior of the poor black man is naive and for the naive.
If Lincoln wanted to end slavery and New York or Massachusetts didn't want slaves then so be it. They had no right to force that on anyone else. If you didn't live slavery, you could move to one of those states. Slavery would have ended naturally given some time.
My question to you is who is going to end your slavery? The first of all you make comes off the top of your check before you even get it and is sent to "yo mastas". The land you live on (if you are even a property owner) belongs to the state and you pay them rent yearly and have no control over the amount they charge and can never move to get away from it. They will tell you what you can eat, how many children you can have, what you should buy, when you can speak, what you can say, that you can't smoke, what your children will be taught in their schools, what your taxes will be spent on, what wars you will support, what you can grow in your garden, etc. Given enough time they will tell you how to conduct every aspect of your life and there is not a damn thing you can do about it but be willing to die for whatever freedom you deem worthy of your life. All because the most important thing in 1861 was to preserve the Union. Lincoln killed 700,000 Americans so we could have a central gov to tell us how to live our lives because they are the only ones qualified. Lincoln trampled on the Constitution and was a traitor to his oath to uphold it. He should have been hung by the neck until dead.
No one is saying the South was full of moral, righteous men who never did wrong or had wrong ideas about major issues in life, but when it comes to state's rights THE SOUTH WAS RIGHT.
Write off the debt, stop loaning money to people who have no intention of paying it back and start over. It's really not that complicated and the world will not come to an end simply because a bunch of "sharks" and "whales" lose an ocean full of money.
True. It certainly didn't end after WW2 now did it? All this angst over some bankers who will get royally screwed. Good. The rest of us will muddle along as we always have, no thanks to the banksters.
This would mean something if money did.
Fail banks. Let them all jump out of windows.
And this and that.
This and that.
Sorry, but he's a Rothschild stooge and openly flaunts it. Read an interview with him recently where he was staying at a Rothschild villa and was bragging about it.
He makes his money as a "historian" for Hedge Funds. He is no economist
This in from another non- economist!
"“The theory which has been guiding monetary and financial policy during the last thirty years, and which I contend is largely the product of such a mistaken conception of the proper scientific procedure, consists in the assertion that there exists a simple positive correlation between total employment and the size of the aggregate demand for goods and services; it leads to the belief that we can permanently assure full employment by maintaining total money expenditure at an appropriate level. Among the various theories advanced to account for extensive unemployment, this is probably the only one in support of which strong quantitative evidence can be adduced. I nevertheless regard it as fundamentally false, and to act upon it, as we now experience, as very harmful…
The correlation between aggregate demand and total employment, for instance, may only be approximate, but as it is the only one on which we have quantitative data, it is accepted as the only causal connection that counts. On this standard there may thus well exist better “scientific” evidence for a false theory, which will be accepted because it is more “scientific”, than for a valid explanation, which is rejected because there is no sufficient quantitative evidence for it…
We have indeed good reason to believe that unemployment indicates that the structure of relative prices and wages has been distorted (usually by monopolistic or governmental price fixing), and that to restore equality between the demand and the supply of labour in all sectors changes of relative prices and some transfers of labour will be necessary.
But when we are asked for quantitative evidence for the particular structure of prices and wages that would be required in order to assure a smooth continuous sale of the products and services offered, we must admit that we have no such information. We know, in other words, the general conditions in which what we call, somewhat misleadingly, an equilibrium will establish itself: but we never know what the particular prices or wages are which would exist if the market were to bring about such an equilibrium. We can merely say what the conditions are in which we can expect the market to establish prices and wages at which demand will equal supply…
The reason for this state of affairs is the fact, to which I have already briefly referred, that the social sciences, like much of biology but unlike most fields of the physical sciences, have to deal with structures of essential complexity, i.e. with structures whose characteristic properties can be exhibited only by models made up of relatively large numbers of variables…
It is indeed the source of the superiority of the market order, and the reason why, when it is not suppressed by the powers of government, it regularly displaces other types of order, that in the resulting allocation of resources more of the knowledge of particular facts will be utilized which exists only dispersed among uncounted persons, than any one person can possess…
There may be few instances in which the superstition that only measurable magnitudes can be important has done positive harm in the economic field: but the present inflation and employment problems are a very serious one. Its effect has been that what is probably the true cause of extensive unemployment has been disregarded by the scientistically minded majority of economists, because its operation could not be confirmed by directly observable relations between measurable magnitudes, and that an almost exclusive concentration on quantitatively measurable surface phenomena has produced a policy which has made matters worse…
In fact, in the case discussed, the very measures which the dominant “macro-economic” theory has recommended as a remedy for unemployment, namely the increase of aggregate demand, have become a cause of a very extensive misallocation of resources which is likely to make later large-scale unemployment inevitable. The continuous injection of additional amounts of money at points of the economic system where it creates a temporary demand which must cease when the increase of the quantity of money stops or slows down, together with the expectation of a continuing rise of prices, draws labour and other resources into employments which can last only so long as the increase of the quantity of money continues at the same rate – or perhaps even only so long as it continues to accelerate at a given rate. What this policy has produced is not so much a level of employment that could not have been brought about in other ways, as a distribution of employment which cannot be indefinitely maintained and which after some time can be maintained only by a rate of inflation which would rapidly lead to a disorganisation of all economic activity. The fact is that by a mistaken theoretical view we have been led into a precarious position in which we cannot prevent substantial unemployment from re-appearing; not because, as this view is sometimes misrepresented, this unemployment is deliberately brought about as a means to combat inflation, but because it is now bound to occur as a deeply regrettable but inescapable consequence of the mistaken policies of the past as soon as inflation ceases to accelerate…
What I mainly wanted to bring out by the topical illustration is that certainly in my field, but I believe also generally in the sciences of man, what looks superficially like the most scientific procedure is often the most unscientific, and, beyond this, that in these fields there are definite limits to what we can expect science to achieve. This means that to entrust to science – or to deliberate control according to scientific principles – more than scientific method can achieve may have deplorable effects. The progress of the natural sciences in modern times has of course so much exceeded all expectations that any suggestion that there may be some limits to it is bound to arouse suspicion. Especially all those will resist such an insight who have hoped that our increasing power of prediction and control, generally regarded as the characteristic result of scientific advance, applied to the processes of society, would soon enable us to mould society entirely to our liking. It is indeed true that, in contrast to the exhilaration which the discoveries of the physical sciences tend to produce, the insights which we gain from the study of society more often have a dampening effect on our aspirations; and it is perhaps not surprising that the more impetuous younger members of our profession are not always prepared to accept this. Yet the confidence in the unlimited power of science is only too often based on a false belief that the scientific method consists in the application of a ready-made technique, or in imitating the form rather than the substance of scientific procedure, as if one needed only to follow some cooking recipes to solve all social problems. It sometimes almost seems as if the techniques of science were more easily learnt than the thinking that shows us what the problems are and how to approach them…
But it is by no means only in the field of economics that far-reaching claims are made on behalf of a more scientific direction of all human activities and the desirability of replacing spontaneous processes by “conscious human control”. If I am not mistaken, psychology, psychiatry and some branches of sociology, not to speak about the so-called philosophy of history, are even more affected by what I have called the scientistic prejudice, and by specious claims of what science can achieve…
If we are to safeguard the reputation of science, and to prevent the arrogation of knowledge based on a superficial similarity of procedure with that of the physical sciences, much effort will have to be directed toward debunking such arrogations, some of which have by now become the vested interests of established university departments. We cannot be grateful enough to such modern philosophers of science as Sir Karl Popper for giving us a test by which we can distinguish between what we may accept as scientific and what not – a test which I am sure some doctrines now widely accepted as scientific would not pass. There are some special problems, however, in connection with those essentially complex phenomena of which social structures are so important an instance, which make me wish to restate in conclusion in more general terms the reasons why in these fields not only are there only absolute obstacles to the prediction of specific events, but why to act as if we possessed scientific knowledge enabling us to transcend them may itself become a serious obstacle to the advance of the human intellect…
But in the social field the erroneous belief that the exercise of some power would have beneficial consequences is likely to lead to a new power to coerce other men being conferred on some authority. Even if such power is not in itself bad, its exercise is likely to impede the functioning of those spontaneous ordering forces by which, without understanding them, man is in fact so largely assisted in the pursuit of his aims. We are only beginning to understand on how subtle a communication system the functioning of an advanced industrial society is based – a communications system which we call the market and which turns out to be a more efficient mechanism for digesting dispersed information than any that man has deliberately designed.
If man is not to do more harm than good in his efforts to improve the social order, he will have to learn that in this, as in all other fields where essential complexity of an organized kind prevails, he cannot acquire the full knowledge which would make mastery of the events possible…
There is danger in the exuberant feeling of ever growing power which the advance of the physical sciences has engendered and which tempts man to try, “dizzy with success”, to use a characteristic phrase of early communism, to subject not only our natural but also our human environment to the control of a human will. The recognition of the insuperable limits to his knowledge ought indeed to teach the student of society a lesson of humility which should guard him against becoming an accomplice in men’s fatal striving to control society – a striving which makes him not only a tyrant over his fellows, but which may well make him the destroyer of a civilization which no brain has designed but which has grown from the free efforts of millions of individuals.”
http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1974/hayek-le...