Are The "Many FOMC Members" Looking At The Same Economy?
The FOMC minutes were full of doom and gloom: if things get worse then we'll save the day; the economy is deteriorating; growth is not great etc. All of which for one glorious moment raised speculation that the 'many' may get their way on the committee sooner than some think. However, a funny thing happened since their last meeting - US Economic Data has improved dramatically relative to expectations. As the chart below shows, the rise in Citi's economic surprise index in the last four weeks is nearly record-breaking since the crisis began. Perhaps, the 'many' could explain which economy they are looking at and just what their economic projections look like now?
Here is the point: while
"Many member expressed support for extending the committee's forward guidance"
"agreed to defer a decision on this matter until the September meeting in order to consider such an adjustment in the context of updates to participants’ individual economic projections and the Committee’s further consideration"
Well, the individual economic projections are all green across the board members.