Are We Headed Into A Recess/Depress-ion? The Answer In 9 Simple Charts

Tyler Durden's picture

For some odd reason, even though it is by now very, very clear that the world is back in a depressionary state, some are still fascinated by the inflection point of the global economy, and wonder: "are we headed for a recession?" (which obviously is the wrong question). Anyway, to help with the answer is this set of 9 interactive charts from Reuters which should remove any last bit of doubt as to what is about to unfold, at least in the perception of conventional wisdom. Furthermore, since most of these data sets are coincident or lagging, it is safe to say that the NBER will shortly announce that the recession started some time in H1.

1. US PMIs

2. Philly Fed and Chicago PMI

3. Euro-zone & China PMI

4. OECD Leading Indicator

5. ECRI Weekly Indicator

6. Initial Jobless Claims

7. Payrolls and Recessions

8. Velocity of M1 Money Stock

9. Consumer Confidence

No additional color needed but it is perhaps comically notable that, with another short squeeze driving stocks up almost 7.5% from the lows on Friday, long-only equity strategists start re-emerging from their bunkers calling for 10, 20, 30% moves into year-end - does it ever get old?

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tawdzilla's picture

Are We Headed Into A Recess/Depress-ion?


johnQpublic's picture


we never exited the last recession

we are simply continuing recession on a clear path to armageddon....errr depression

Oh regional Indian's picture

I think we are headed for a recess-less oppression.


Weird World

Comay Mierda's picture

but but but very highly paid phd economists told me we are in a "growth recession" so everything must be fine

JPM Hater001's picture

Yeah.  The Crash Course throttled me awake especially Fuzzy numbers.  We never left the recession.  We are now pointing our way happily into a depression. 

If the fuckers had just left it alone in 96 when the Boskin Commision got thier hands on it completely difference decisions would have been made along the way.  Of course Greenspan pumping the money gin after the tech crash was mistake number two but I am really surprised at the rate of mistakes.

Cynical Sidney's picture

we are 5 years into a global recession. once greece goes, countries like portugal, italy will go, uk will slip back into a depression, if it's not in one already; what's the upside here? oh yeah, speculators could make a killing~

AbelCatalyst's picture

I thought that Art Cashin's Thrusday/Monday observation last week was dead on...  and it will be THIS Thusday / Next Monday...  Art's always a little ahead of the croud!!  Oh, just loaded up on more YANG again!!  Yeah!!!  

covert's picture

this is a small part of the larger picture. this down cycle comes around about every 1,300 years and usually lasts about 230 years.


FOC 1183's picture

only 4 months late

clones2's picture

I heard today was "Risk-On" trading. :-)  Hahaha....  LOL.  Market gaps almost 200.  I would actually classify this short covering/squeeze as "Risk Off" trading and profit taking.

Racer's picture

Gaps up on hot air and rumours... very sustainable and the HFTers take over buying and selling to each other at every increasing prices just for the hell of it, after al they get paid to pump

clones2's picture

This gap up looks like a gap fill from last week back towards the 50 dma.  If this rolls over AGAIN towards the weekend... I would expect new lows.

gmrpeabody's picture

So..., you think it will last to the weekend?

OnTheWaterfront's picture
Recess/Depression? are you on crack? have you seen the market the last few days? its going through the roof.
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, stocks are up, so how can things be bad? Sure.

Smiddywesson's picture

My frame of reference for the economy is this full retard circle jerk abortion.

I used to think Hell would be full of pits and burning pools, but in reality it is this, the Devil gives you a 401k and you spend eternity trying to figure out this blasphemy of a market and trade it.

SheepDog-One's picture

Keynesian stand-off, everyones 'not it', no one willing to take the required huge haircuts, until theyll all get their heads lopped off suddenly one day.

Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

That's a hologram SD1. Their heads never get cut off, it's everybody elses. The hushed secret is that any top o' the pyramid Keynesian has been hoarding AU the entire time. Fiat is a joke that the majority of the audience doesn't get until the bouncer arrives.

Archimedes's picture

I was going to junk you but I assumed you were being sarcastic.

brew's picture

hope you're being sarcastic.  if not, the market is not the economy...

Comay Mierda's picture

SHTF Index


SheepDog-One's picture

Yea we're headed right to depression....soon as we have a few more +3% stock market-wide upside days or months or whatever.

Ancona's picture

Thanks for the added doom. If Europe shits the bed we'll have far worse than a depression, we'll have a revolution.

SheepDog-One's picture

Such a shame we have to be tied to Europe...'If Europe shits the bed we'll have far worse than depression, we'll have revolution'....its funny I cant think of a single thing I actually need from Europe, at all.

Coldsun's picture

Their women. (Except the French and Italian "women". Otherwise we would get a pussy named Jacque in a beret and the sasquatch women from the boot.)

Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

For Baal's sake have you seen many American women lately?

Adipose, mouthy, androgenous, poor hygiene, unfocused hatred.


UBIGDummy's picture

"If Europe shits the bed we'll have far worse than a depression, we'll have a revolution."

HOW in the hell is a revolution worse than a depression.  I THINK a revolt would be a wonderful purge of the banksters, mobsters oligarchs and all kinda other pecker heads need an ass kicking. 


all Oligarchs, banksters, mobsters and vested interests on keeping our empire and fraudulant ways, feel free to junk away. 

Oh, didnt some of our forefathers mention about needing a revolution every decade or 2?  hmmm

clones2's picture

The market will be down tomorrow on the same news today...  The Markets LEAD - the MSM follows...

Cdad's picture

Love chart #2...Chicago as the historical liar charted across 60 years.

Folk often talk of CA falling into the ocean...but for my money...maybe another great fire in Chicago, instead.  F'n cesspool.

**apologies to the great Mr. Santelli**

no2foreclosures's picture

The kickoff to GD2 was October 2008.  We are just seeing the bopping up and down of the U.S.S. Titanic.

baby_BLYTHE's picture

2008= Crash of 1929

The worst is yet to come. And there still is the possibility of WWIII in the not to distant future.

Dr. Engali's picture

The question should be... When do we get out of the reccession that started in 2000?

Id fight Gandhi's picture

When the next round of earnings come out next month to show misses and lower guidance, everyone talking how stocks are cheap will look like. Nut jobs.

Right now, it's all luck if youre a regular trader to profit here. You never know what lie or rumor will be bought so you can be long or short and still be wrong

Racer's picture

They will gradually lower 'expectation's lower and lower the nearer it gets so they will end up 'beating' them easily... and away we go again

Belarus's picture

Velocity of M1 Money says it all: no credit growth, no employment growth, no GDP growth. And to think the Shawdow Banking System is contraction a couple hundres billion a quarter now with no Federal Reserve offset. 

In other words, toilet flush this sucker rally will be.

Edward Fiatski's picture

"SEC says reducing market decline percentage thresholds necessary to trigger a circuit breaker"

You know it's coming.

anony's picture

Could be me if only I could get a 'Friends with Benefits' date with Diane Sawyer, Sofia Vergara, or Doutzen Kroes.

the mind reels....

Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

what, is an impersonal pronoun not enough for you? 'It', damn it! 'IT'