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Are We Headed Into A Recess/Depress-ion? The Answer In 9 Simple Charts

Tyler Durden's picture


For some odd reason, even though it is by now very, very clear that the world is back in a depressionary state, some are still fascinated by the inflection point of the global economy, and wonder: "are we headed for a recession?" (which obviously is the wrong question). Anyway, to help with the answer is this set of 9 interactive charts from Reuters which should remove any last bit of doubt as to what is about to unfold, at least in the perception of conventional wisdom. Furthermore, since most of these data sets are coincident or lagging, it is safe to say that the NBER will shortly announce that the recession started some time in H1.

1. US PMIs

2. Philly Fed and Chicago PMI

3. Euro-zone & China PMI

4. OECD Leading Indicator

5. ECRI Weekly Indicator

6. Initial Jobless Claims

7. Payrolls and Recessions

8. Velocity of M1 Money Stock

9. Consumer Confidence

No additional color needed but it is perhaps comically notable that, with another short squeeze driving stocks up almost 7.5% from the lows on Friday, long-only equity strategists start re-emerging from their bunkers calling for 10, 20, 30% moves into year-end - does it ever get old?


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Tue, 09/27/2011 - 10:55 | 1714872 tawdzilla
tawdzilla's picture

Are We Headed Into A Recess/Depress-ion?


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 10:57 | 1714886 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture


we never exited the last recession

we are simply continuing recession on a clear path to armageddon....errr depression

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:08 | 1714939 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I think we are headed for a recess-less oppression.


Weird World

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:12 | 1714951 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:12 | 1715135 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

+1 hr detention from playground for ORI

nice wordsmithing V.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:17 | 1715156 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

;-) Gracias HLS.


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:09 | 1714942 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

but but but very highly paid phd economists told me we are in a "growth recession" so everything must be fine

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:32 | 1715210 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Yeah.  The Crash Course throttled me awake especially Fuzzy numbers.  We never left the recession.  We are now pointing our way happily into a depression. 

If the fuckers had just left it alone in 96 when the Boskin Commision got thier hands on it completely difference decisions would have been made along the way.  Of course Greenspan pumping the money gin after the tech crash was mistake number two but I am really surprised at the rate of mistakes.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 13:27 | 1715402 Cynical Sidney
Cynical Sidney's picture

we are 5 years into a global recession. once greece goes, countries like portugal, italy will go, uk will slip back into a depression, if it's not in one already; what's the upside here? oh yeah, speculators could make a killing~

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 13:47 | 1715482 andybev01
andybev01's picture

'Repression', anyone?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 13:59 | 1715523 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

I thought that Art Cashin's Thrusday/Monday observation last week was dead on...  and it will be THIS Thusday / Next Monday...  Art's always a little ahead of the croud!!  Oh, just loaded up on more YANG again!!  Yeah!!!  

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 14:46 | 1715744 covert
covert's picture

this is a small part of the larger picture. this down cycle comes around about every 1,300 years and usually lasts about 230 years.


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 10:55 | 1714874 euphoria
euphoria's picture


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 10:59 | 1714892 trav7777
trav7777's picture


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:08 | 1714940 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:55 | 1715298 dearth vader
dearth vader's picture

Kind of, first to get junked over 50 times, today.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 10:55 | 1714875 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

only 4 months late

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 10:56 | 1714879 clones2
clones2's picture

I heard today was "Risk-On" trading. :-)  Hahaha....  LOL.  Market gaps almost 200.  I would actually classify this short covering/squeeze as "Risk Off" trading and profit taking.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 10:59 | 1714893 Racer
Racer's picture

Gaps up on hot air and rumours... very sustainable and the HFTers take over buying and selling to each other at every increasing prices just for the hell of it, after al they get paid to pump

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:02 | 1714910 clones2
clones2's picture

This gap up looks like a gap fill from last week back towards the 50 dma.  If this rolls over AGAIN towards the weekend... I would expect new lows.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:50 | 1715056 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

So..., you think it will last to the weekend?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 10:58 | 1714885 OnTheWaterfront
OnTheWaterfront's picture
Recess/Depression? are you on crack? have you seen the market the last few days? its going through the roof.
Tue, 09/27/2011 - 10:59 | 1714896 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, stocks are up, so how can things be bad? Sure.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:01 | 1714904 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Oil is up too, let the good times roll!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:10 | 1714944 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

My frame of reference for the economy is this full retard circle jerk abortion.

I used to think Hell would be full of pits and burning pools, but in reality it is this, the Devil gives you a 401k and you spend eternity trying to figure out this blasphemy of a market and trade it.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:32 | 1715009 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Keynesian stand-off, everyones 'not it', no one willing to take the required huge haircuts, until theyll all get their heads lopped off suddenly one day.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:17 | 1715155 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

That's a hologram SD1. Their heads never get cut off, it's everybody elses. The hushed secret is that any top o' the pyramid Keynesian has been hoarding AU the entire time. Fiat is a joke that the majority of the audience doesn't get until the bouncer arrives.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:01 | 1714900 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

I was going to junk you but I assumed you were being sarcastic.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:49 | 1715290 brew
brew's picture

hope you're being sarcastic.  if not, the market is not the economy...

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 10:58 | 1714888 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

SHTF Index


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 10:58 | 1714890 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea we're headed right to depression....soon as we have a few more +3% stock market-wide upside days or months or whatever.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 10:59 | 1714891 Ancona
Ancona's picture

Thanks for the added doom. If Europe shits the bed we'll have far worse than a depression, we'll have a revolution.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:01 | 1714902 bewst
bewst's picture


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:01 | 1714907 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Such a shame we have to be tied to Europe...'If Europe shits the bed we'll have far worse than depression, we'll have revolution'....its funny I cant think of a single thing I actually need from Europe, at all.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:48 | 1715052 Coldsun
Coldsun's picture

Their women. (Except the French and Italian "women". Otherwise we would get a pussy named Jacque in a beret and the sasquatch women from the boot.)

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:23 | 1715177 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

For Baal's sake have you seen many American women lately?

Adipose, mouthy, androgenous, poor hygiene, unfocused hatred.


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:27 | 1715196 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

+1 for the " " !

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 17:49 | 1716277 UBIGDummy
UBIGDummy's picture

"If Europe shits the bed we'll have far worse than a depression, we'll have a revolution."

HOW in the hell is a revolution worse than a depression.  I THINK a revolt would be a wonderful purge of the banksters, mobsters oligarchs and all kinda other pecker heads need an ass kicking. 


all Oligarchs, banksters, mobsters and vested interests on keeping our empire and fraudulant ways, feel free to junk away. 

Oh, didnt some of our forefathers mention about needing a revolution every decade or 2?  hmmm

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:00 | 1714895 clones2
clones2's picture

The market will be down tomorrow on the same news today...  The Markets LEAD - the MSM follows...

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:02 | 1714898 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Love chart #2...Chicago as the historical liar charted across 60 years.

Folk often talk of CA falling into the ocean...but for my money...maybe another great fire in Chicago, instead.  F'n cesspool.

**apologies to the great Mr. Santelli**

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:00 | 1714899 no2foreclosures
no2foreclosures's picture

The kickoff to GD2 was October 2008.  We are just seeing the bopping up and down of the U.S.S. Titanic.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:04 | 1714919 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

2008= Crash of 1929

The worst is yet to come. And there still is the possibility of WWIII in the not to distant future.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:01 | 1714903 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The question should be... When do we get out of the reccession that started in 2000?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:02 | 1714908 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

When the next round of earnings come out next month to show misses and lower guidance, everyone talking how stocks are cheap will look like. Nut jobs.

Right now, it's all luck if youre a regular trader to profit here. You never know what lie or rumor will be bought so you can be long or short and still be wrong

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:05 | 1714924 Racer
Racer's picture

They will gradually lower 'expectation's lower and lower the nearer it gets so they will end up 'beating' them easily... and away we go again

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:02 | 1714911 Belarus
Belarus's picture

Velocity of M1 Money says it all: no credit growth, no employment growth, no GDP growth. And to think the Shawdow Banking System is contraction a couple hundres billion a quarter now with no Federal Reserve offset. 

In other words, toilet flush this sucker rally will be.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:02 | 1714912 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

"SEC says reducing market decline percentage thresholds necessary to trigger a circuit breaker"

You know it's coming.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:10 | 1714945 LeonardoFibonacci
LeonardoFibonacci's picture

be specific what is coming?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:16 | 1714965 anony
anony's picture

Could be me if only I could get a 'Friends with Benefits' date with Diane Sawyer, Sofia Vergara, or Doutzen Kroes.

the mind reels....

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:25 | 1715183 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

what, is an impersonal pronoun not enough for you? 'It', damn it! 'IT'

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 13:53 | 1715508 andybev01
andybev01's picture

Truman Capote, 'Murder By Death'.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:05 | 1716483 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:03 | 1714913 pauhana
pauhana's picture

The velocity chart is the one that scares me most.  While the market is truly giddy at the lousy consumer confidence numbers released today, what was more interesting was that even fewer people are planning to buy large appliances and cars in the next 6 months.  Consumers seem much smarter than investors. 

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:05 | 1714922 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Investors' are more insane than lunatics that run around naked smearing peanut butter all over themselves.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 14:53 | 1715770 Helix6
Helix6's picture

RE "Consumers seem much smarter than investors."

Nope.  Consumers just don't have any money.  The investors captured it all.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:03 | 1714917 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Where is Graham Summers?!?  My shorts are getting fried.  I thought this was it!?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:15 | 1714962 snowball777
snowball777's picture

What's the analog of knife-catching for shorts? Baloon wrangling?


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 15:02 | 1715812 falun bong
falun bong's picture

Can't short this market, that's what sucks. Classic bear since 2000 but gumm'ent interventions mean shorts can get crushed. Options are the way to go.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:04 | 1714921 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

I don't understand why the market moves up or down anymore. Money is too difficult to earn to gamble it in this casino. I can't "invest" if I don't understand what's going on.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:06 | 1714929 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They want everyone feeling that way, thats the plan, the markets must be COMPLETELY empty with no one daring to go long or short, so that the banks can move in all short and dump it really big.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:13 | 1714953 anony
anony's picture

The Goldman Sucks, Lord Blankfein, and his minions--- the Vampire Squid-- controls--- thru compurobots ----the entire market for assets of all kinds, even your brains, like, to overuse a point, the Zombies.

See Matt Taibbi's outstanding Pulitzer level piece in Rolling Stone for a very detailed primer and you will then understand, but that misunderestimation that is now your current confusion will be far easier to deal with than knowing the truth.

Read: and weep, or get into the rhythm of what they are doing and prosper. Simply,  BTFD and STFR.  As an example, buy TZA right now and watch your money grow, for a few days, then sell it. Repeat as often as you feel comfortable doing so.

"Rejoice: forsake your confusion, embrace the chaos". For there is great profit in up/down complexity.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:34 | 1715014 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Huh? You mean read the 3 year old Rolling Stone article we talked about every day here back then and everyone said it was all crazy talk?

Yea, we read it.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:06 | 1714925 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

#8 is by far the most interesting indicator. Deflation still a major threat and will continue to be... until someone addresses the velocity issue. That day will come and THEN... we're OFF!!!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:05 | 1714926 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Judging by the equity "markets" recessions are very bullish. Can i have mine leveraged please?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:05 | 1714927 Belarus
Belarus's picture

BTW, you gotta give Faber credit where credit is due: he said the market would rally this week then decline the following week. Spot on so far. 

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:12 | 1714949 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

he called the correction in gold, the historic rally in Treasuries, the correction in the market after the highs in early May, the slowdown in Asia and of course the lows in March 2009.

He is not one to bet against. It would be sweet to see him smack down Benocide in a debate. The world's best economist versus the world's worst central banker

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:06 | 1714928 anony
anony's picture

"Depression" or "recession" has the taint of being temporary phenomena.   No Depression has ever lasted forever, or more than a few years. A decade at the very most.

We will need to invent another word for where we are, and where we are heading, because a PERMANENT chronic condition is now aborning. 

It's like that brown irregular spot on your neck, that tbe dermatologist wants to have biopsied, learning that it is an incurable cancer and the only thing they can't tell you is how long it will take to make its way into the deeper and more vulnerable organs of the body.

Time for a new paradigm, wherein the worlds first world population will have to become permanently used to no growth opportunities in employment, careers, or other working life.  If you don't have  plans for a first rate education in a field that has promise, if you have only a minimal competence at your current job, if you spend more time here than on improving, inventing, creating more prospects for yourself, you are doomed to a life of survival only.  If that.

Without the invention of whole industries or opportunities heretofore unforeseen in existing ones, there is nowhere for the children with low performance metrics, average IQ, low energy, who live for distractions, just get by mentality, to go.





Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:17 | 1714969 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Without the invention of whole industries or opportunities heretofore unforeseen in existing ones, there is nowhere for the children with low performance metrics, average IQ, low energy, who live for distractions, just get by mentality, to go.

Untrue.  There is Soylent Green.  I understand it's tastier than Soylent Yellow.  Munch, munch

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:34 | 1715215 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

We have always been at war with EastAsia.  

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:17 | 1714970 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

"...there is nowhere for the children with low performance metrics, average IQ, low energy, who live for distractions, just get by mentality, to go."


...Might I suggest 'jail' of our few remianing growth industries.....

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:58 | 1715074 walküre
walküre's picture

May I suggest 'army' ... which is the all time fav. of our military industrial complex banking overlords.

Enlist today, get an Ipad 2!!!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:39 | 1715232 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

I'm going to suggest something much more likely... the game show, wheel of misfortune where the arrow lands on 'mass death'. Yes, this will be the cure. Don't worry, future generations will be much smaller. They likely won't be your offspring, but think of the good side of it... they will be able to enjoy production/labor automation, the remaining easy to get resources, new technology, and the recycling of the old paradigm cycle where the entire travesty will once again repeat. Got to love histories prognosis of the future. Oh those wily humans! 

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:27 | 1714991 Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

Agreed, but I have no answer to what is clearly the ending of the current, global, industrial form of civilization.

When the Roman Empire went down the tube, most of the world had not been contaminated, but now ....?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 14:06 | 1715110 anony
anony's picture

Unless there is a pandemic that wipes out 25,000,000 americans, the creeping socialism we have endured wherein less than half the people work in this country already, we may have to embrace a fully socialistic state like the U.K. has, and France.  Or a war that eats into our population in the millions, or a nuke that takes out New York City.

Those who can, will contribute their brains, and work efforts;  those who can't will be given subsistence levels, and cell phones with 1,000 free minutes. They will be free to pursue whatever pleasures their full leisure time allows them.

Maybe in the hundreds of millions, there will be a few who will become a Henry Ford, or Steve Jobs, or Bill Gates (I'd say Warren Buffet but he has been a net drag on employment, hasn't created a single, solitary job with his 120 billions of dollars since he only buys corporations that already make good money) or Larry Ellison.  Or not.

In either case, the american model has reached full maturity and until the hundreds of millions of old folks die, the prospects of our youth, adults, and those with working capacity are very dim to invisible.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:43 | 1715034 viv_savage
viv_savage's picture

Agree. Time for a new paradigm.


It's worth the effort to investigate Freegold. It's difficult from the $IMFS mindset to grasp but once you see, you SEE! It doesn't eliminate the pain we will experience but the upside, HONESTY in our money, is a hell of a lot better than anything else I've read.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:58 | 1715073 kurzdump
kurzdump's picture

War will be the only soultion our leaders will be able to find. Sad but do not expect anything else to come.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:25 | 1715187 HyperinflatmyNutts
HyperinflatmyNutts's picture

Its Called a Debt Slave

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:25 | 1715188 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

I like James Kunstler's name for it; The Long Emergency.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:41 | 1715256 DosZap
DosZap's picture


Oh, sir you are so wrong....................

Without the invention of whole industries or opportunities heretofore unforeseen in existing ones, there is nowhere for the children with low performance metrics, average IQ, low energy, who live for distractions, just get by mentality, to go.

Into the streets, and exactly where they willl go.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 15:11 | 1715845 falun bong
falun bong's picture

Americans need to travel, get outside the country, go see their new competitors and how they are living. Because the world's standard of living is evening out, it's not quite a zero-sum game but almost. Chinese consumers buying their first house means you lose yours

Feels better for those on the way up than for those on the way down, that's for sure. They'll all arive at the same place in about 5 years, estimated date for manufacturing wages in China and the US to hit parity

too bad we don't have real markets we can use to profit from it all. What we have today is a highly rigged casino. The pit boss is watching the action with a hidden camera and puts his finger on the roulette wheel whenever he wants

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:08 | 1714941 PivotalTrades
PivotalTrades's picture

Time For Convergence:

Long DAX short S&P


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:10 | 1714946 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Can you explain the charts.

I went to public school.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 14:46 | 1715743 d_senti
d_senti's picture

Down is bad.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:14 | 1714955 HD
HD's picture

5 years from now - when the only traders left are bots and a hand full of guys on the NYSE floor (CNBC's gotta interview someone - bots still can't BS on camera) what are these guys going to do if they have to get "real jobs"?

Maybe they'll need workers at the hopium factory...

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:38 | 1716577 HD
HD's picture

I stand corrected.  "Bullshit" - there's an app for that.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:14 | 1714956 Doode
Doode's picture

Inconclusive based on charts alone. Plenty of examples on the very same charts when indicators dipped and no recession happened. Though there is likely to be one now for political reasons.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 14:25 | 1715654 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Tyler left out the most revealing chart. Government corruption level is off the scale. The obvious effect is the parasite will consume the host.  It was probably too obvious a metric to include.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 14:52 | 1715763 Doode
Doode's picture

Evidence, sources please?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 17:37 | 1716399 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You apparently have a low SIQ (sarc IQ).   Besides, shouldn't you be the one to produce the "charts" for your statement?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:01 | 1716467 Doode
Doode's picture

You must have hit reply to the wrong post as your statements and questions make no sense.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:21 | 1714974 Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

Even without the charts - just on an overall take on things, e.g. wars ramping up and social unrest - it is clear that the light at the end of the tunnel is a train hell-bent on wreckage coming at us.

Or another way of looking at things, by way of analogy, is that we are all aboard a "Titanic" - not least the BRICs - and due for an 'icy' impact with our real conditions of existence, e.g. the 'iceberg' of massive debt to Ponzi banks, which hide most of their destructive impact 'below water' ... shadow banking, derivatives and so on.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:19 | 1714975 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Great charts......especially chart #1.


Clearly QE3 will soon be here.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:23 | 1714984 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

(Newsreader)..."midst the noisome distraction of NY city-wide protests, violence and indiscriminate looting, the Dow Jones eked out modest 6.5% gains today. The index received a boost early on, after an early morning explosion in downtown LA. Airline stocks, which immediately soared on the back of the conflagration, eased back a little after Al Queda  denied involvement. However this disappointment was offset by a Haliburton ex- CEO's  ruminations as to the likelihood of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction being involved. The last 30 minutes saw serious gains in the index as Wall St anticipated a post 18th green 'debt ceiling increase' address from the President. Scheduled for 4.15 pm EST, this is subject to change since said green has a bitch of a sandtrap and the Commander-in-Chief's wedge game is not all that. Regardless, hopes are high that the 300 trillion spending increase will pass congressional muster and Capitol Hill will again "pass this Bill". Back to you Jenny ...

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:31 | 1715008 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Fundamentals don't matter to the Big Players anymore...only HFT equations trying to eak out a few million per trade in a millisecond.

The stock market has lost its traditional meaning of being a place to raise capital, etc. It's a casino now.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:36 | 1715020 walküre
walküre's picture

The last bounce was attributed to "insider buying" if I remember correctly. Gosh, it was so long ago like in August or so. This year. Man, so much has happened since...

Then the "crash" over the last few days was a "flight to safety" and UST paper got snatched up left, right and center and therefore the yields dropped like flies after a cold fall night in my barn.

Then the market bounces off the lows again due to some hogwash they're going to tell us, I'm sure. In the meantime everywhere I look and everyone I speak to is very nervous and even anxious about their personal future and the economy in general.

The trader prick on BBC yesterday was the icing on the cake and the perfect propagandist from our banking overlords.

You can't trade this bounce, you can only get fleeced. That's how Wall Street made their money, time and again.

Oh, don't get me wrong. I'm still shorting this butt ugly son of a bitch market in the days and weeks ahead but thanks to ZH, we're being ahead of the frontrunning.

Good work, Tyler.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:56 | 1715067 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

I may have sucker stamped across my forehead - but I think that Trader was legit. Because seriously what type of advice would you have given to the masses ? He's warning people to get the f%*k out of the market and protect their assets - he called a spade a spade by highlighting how The Squid runs the world. That was veritas was it not ?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:17 | 1715158 walküre
walküre's picture

If you have a large short position, you tell the rest of the world the sky is falling and to get the hell out of the markets.

Maybe we'll see the smug face of Alessio again one day when he get's escorted out of his office in handcuffs. Maybe he was short yesterday and lost a cool billion for one of the big banks. Remember that trader who recently lost 2 billion for UBS.

This market is a farce as we all know. Failing any further direct government intervention and liquidity injection, this market will go down. Gravity does that to all things. The money that was injected previously has been digested, regurgitated a couple times and spent.

QE3 is not coming. The CBs can't or won't provide more liquidity until things go so bad that the political will may be there but it will be too little and too late. Germany is a good case example in how long it takes to get political consensus to basically openly declare one nation's support for the financial mess of another nation. And they're EU member states and they have a common currency.

Obama can try and make political hay for his own gain by diverting attention to Europe and blaming European leaders for not responding quick enough and high enough. Who is he? His own finances are shot and he couldn't get political consenus until the last minute (and it was too late) to raise the debt ceiling. Obama is of course a charlatan. Some Americans may actually believe his propaganda.

The world is drowning in debt. Nothing has changed that fact and write-downs or jubilees or debt restructuring is all DEFLATIONARY, no matter how much the spinnsters try to avoid that term. Even if they print 5x the current money and hyper inflation ensues, the effects will still be deflationary because wealth has been destroyed and is not coming back. Wealth creation has been possible over the last decades in a new economy based on cheap oil. We're not running out of oil, but we're out of cheap oil hence the term 'peak oil'.

The system as we know it is broken as this economic cycle based on oil is coming to an end.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:03 | 1715097 goldinpenguin
goldinpenguin's picture

Actually we are continuing the drecession we never left from 2007

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:06 | 1715102 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

The two take-aways from those charts are my conviction the market is completely corrupt, and my silver pile is the best thing financially I've got going forward.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:09 | 1715123 mikmid
mikmid's picture

Ain't no stinking recession, CNBC told me so!!!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:12 | 1715133 Robslob
Robslob's picture



The MARKET is always forward looking and clearly saw the Recession / Depression only lasting 60 - 75 days then looks forward again and sees Benocide Bernanke warming up the presses and decides it's over...back to high GDP growth of 2%...


Yeah we are saved!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:22 | 1715170 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Instead of Depression and Recession,  how about we change it to Oppression?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:24 | 1715182 phyregold
phyregold's picture

Does anybody have any good links or a really good book on how to profit from a depression, or how people profited from the depression of the 30's?  I keep hearing about people doing it but i'm not able to find much literature.


Thanks guys!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:34 | 1715218 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

best advice never repeated: Hold cash (the kind with security strips, watermarks, the kind of currency people can look at, identify and trust without some assayers standing over your shoulder)

buy hard assets on discount: When the market bottoms, you can buy land, houses, capital equipment. You will have money to put to work, to help other people.

make lots of what other people need, and need less of what they have: If you can make something, and you have more than you need and other people need it, you are bringing in more than you spend.

read Conquer the Crash, by Bob Prechter

oh and find a safe bank, Prechter has a list and there is a website which rates the banks as well.

discern the difference between generic money market accounts and treasury money market accounts. The difference in yield is insignificant, the level of safety is priceless.






Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:26 | 1715190 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

If Obamas Stock Market cannot outperform the returns from Bernanke's Bond Market, YOY, then they're both out of work, on Jan 1. Finish below that mark and the election campaign is all over but the shouting. That's DOW12000, not much really, a hurdle even a special olympics type President like Obama can get over. If he doesn't, all hell cuts loose. We should encourage his success, because even the Bears will get killed.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:41 | 1715251 AdahPrice
AdahPrice's picture


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:42 | 1715263 Deep
Deep's picture

Doesn't the world is endnig, the world is ending, ever get old Tyler?



Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:46 | 1715275 kahunabear
kahunabear's picture

So does this mean Timmie and Ben the Wanker will not be on the next Dancing with the Stars? I bet Timmie can do a mean quick step and the 'ol Bernank can probably do a pretty good foxtrot.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:46 | 1715276 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:52 | 1715279 ivars
ivars's picture

Answer in one simple chart:)-recession in 2012 AND 2013 in the USA. Then , collapse of the biggest bubble- USA debt.

Then , collapse of the biggest bubble- USA debt.typical log=periodic precrash sequence with following superexponnetial growth which is not only unsustainable but not curable without a CRASH:

And new oil (Brent Crude 1M) price prediction 2011-2013:


Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:49 | 1715292 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Middle class answer: Yes.

Bankster answer: No

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 13:07 | 1715334 hyperbole2000
hyperbole2000's picture

A hammer roll is a phenomenal thing to witness.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 13:16 | 1715369 adr
adr's picture

From what I understand the market exists in a parallel dimension and that is how both economic growth and contraction can exist at the same time. Europe being fixed and falling apart as well. The LHC has broken down the barrier between dimensions and the two are rotating like a pulsar. Each half rotationbrings us to one dimension or the other. 

Since logic and simple observation can't explain how this market seems to levitate and collapse for no real reason this  idea doesn't really seem out of bounds anymore.

The world has become an asylum I was wrongly admitted to.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 13:25 | 1715395 BailoutBandit
BailoutBandit's picture

I wondered where my jobless recovery was.  Ah, there it is!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 13:41 | 1715462 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

I posted a chart of PMI vs Real GDP growth. Jeez, it is AWFUL!!!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 14:41 | 1715722 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Dow UP +300. I think Traders are encouraged that Michael Jackson's doctor will be juiced of juicing Michael. CNN devoting all air time to this historic event.

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