This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Art Cashin On "Calamity Joe" Granville And A January 23 Market Top
The Chairman of the Fermentation Committee takes the fizz out of the market once again.
From UBS Financial Services
Calamity Joe Is Back - Last week, we wrote that various cycles and technicians were pointing to a possible market top, on or about January 23rd. The “causes” ranged from sophisticated oscillators to the new moon to astrological confluences. Yesterday, one more “cause” was added and it came from a somewhat controversial Wall Street legend - Joe Granville. Here’s a bit from a Bloomberg review of Mr. G’s call:
Joseph Granville, whose “sell everything” call in 1981 sparked a decline in U.S. stocks, said the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) will drop toward 8,000 this year because of waning momentum and volume.
“Volume precedes prices,” Granville, 88, a technical analyst who has been publishing the Granville Market Letter from Kansas City, Missouri for about 50 years, said in an interview on “Street Smart” on Bloomberg Television. “You are seeing much lower volume. That tells you that prices are going to go much lower, much lower than most people think possible and very few people have projected.”
The article did a brief review of some of his prior calls:
Trading in U.S. stocks fell to the lowest level since at least 2008 amid mutual fund withdrawals and Wall Street job cuts. An average of 6.69 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges in the 50 days ended Jan. 18, the fewest on record in Bloomberg data starting three years ago that excludes over-the- counter venues. On the New York Stock Exchange, volume has tumbled to the lowest level since 1999, the data show.
Granville told newsletter readers to “Sell Everything” on Jan. 6, 1981. The Dow fell 2.4 percent the next day. He correctly forecast the bear market of 1977-78 and the burst of the Internet bubble that began in 2000. In March 2008, Granville said the Dow would end the year near 9,000, more than 27 percent below its level of 12,392.66 at the time. The gauge finished the year at 8,776.39.
His predictions proved less prescient during some of the previous bull markets. He failed to foresee the rally that started in 1982 and lasted for five years. He also called for losses in 1995 while the S&P 500 rose every year till 2000.
Occasionally spotty, or not, when Granville makes a call, you can be sure it makes a headline or two.
- 17166 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -


4K red candles bichez!
Bots don't care what the old man says.
We don't need no stinking volume, until we do. SPY $87.59
Sent an email to Bob Prechter yesterday early PM: "Was that it? Did I hear a bell ring?"
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2012/01/what-does-this-mean.html
Yesterday's new moon was T-squared by an opposition of Jupiter and Saturn. Comparable to the solar eclipse conjuct Jupiter and opposed by Saturn that marked the turning point at Dow 3K on July 22nd 1990. Right with that solar eclipse, Iraq started massing troops on Kuwait just before the August 2nd invasion and associated Persian Gulf Crisis that year. All eyes now on Iran and the Persian Gulf again IMHO.
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_1687182.php/LEAD-Tehran-warns-EU-embargo-will-have-serious-consequences
When I grow up, I wanna be a BOT!
Elaine Garzarelli's predictions? And Abby Joseph Cohen's? And Jim Cramer's?
I heard Cramer is dating Abby Joseph Cohen now.
Who fucks who?
Don't forget Prechter.
We KILLED Gazerelli in the OEX in 1988-90. She never saw an option she didn't love to buy.
Men don't ask for directions while driving, women can't admit being wrong while trading ;^)
tell the PPT in the basements of ny fed..until the unk group that took out MM funds in 08 gets to work that is..Seems congress has forgotten about the big raid back then..does anyone think that unk group is getting ready for repeat or are they longs?
Probably too soon for a repeat. We'll know more once we hear from the Fed
This brings back memories...I was a boy trader and making plenty of money insider trading (that was what trading was then) in January 1981 when the market tanked because of someone I'd never heard of...Joe Granville. I sold all my shares and never bought another one to this day.
low volume is a tell ... something is gonna happen.
Yup and Hays is calling for the S&P 500 to take a stab at the 2007 highs this year. By the end of the year one of them will be prescient and one will be stupid.
I am in full agreement with Joe. The technical placement is absolutely perfect. Now it just remains to be seen if the reversal materializes.
http://razorsforex.blogspot.com/2012/01/nasdaq-sp500-gold-market-overvie...
Nasdaq and S&P Jan 23 Review
Say it ain't so Joe!
This is not good, guns/ammo/scotch/cigarettes.
no volume to support these nose bleed levels because the obvious; rigged fucking joke.
rather fucking fly to vegas and get shit faced and loose half and have some fun being stupid vs being stupid for a whole year drip by drip...
all brokerage account closed 2011 for fucking good; pm and cash not in a fucking bank-thank you.
I predict they will keep stock prices up until they are ready for another "crisis" upon which they will be required to take "drastic actions" to save us all.
Go long financial crisis. Edit: For suggestions see battle axe and new game, above ;-)
The top is in. I've been hearing that since before 10k. I have my own reasons to believe it's heading much lower but ill believe it when I see it. Having everyone and their brother call the top on bloomberg and elsewhere doesn't help matters any. Oh well, maybe they'll be right one of these times.
Don't forget, the headlines yesterday read "stocks are cheapest they've been in years". LMAO.
is he dead yet?
who is he? can i see his trading record? is he in forbes 400 at least..
if not... fuck it
alx
RESPECT!...YOUR ELDERS!
"alexwest",
By the way, WHO ARE YOU??...Don't you usually follow "Jim Cramer"?
Stay young, for now!
somewhat OT What Does A Flattening Yield Curve Mean For Gold?
I'll see your chart and raise ya one, slewie.
For those who follow the LBMA overnight gold fix trade:
http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/sites/default/files/1970%20ex-London%20...
Some eye-watering gold price!
The only problem that I have with the low volume argument is that ZIRP has a huge influence on this market but I am just not sure of exactly all the places it is being felt. Just saying that when there is billions of dollars of free money sloshing around in the market maybe low volume doesn't mean what it once did.
Speaking of fermentation... my real health tip of the day:
If you suffer from agita or heartburn, drink a half bottle of Kombucha daily.
You won't take another tum or rolaids again, and it tastes great.
Test 666. Test 666.
Oh please, oh please, oh please.
record amounts being pulled out from retirement accounts, street accts-thats a fact jack-trim tabs- and ordinary people like me that have totally lost faith. don't know anybody in the markets any more; except the gamblers here, and don't know you anyways. fucking idiot if you are in this rigged joke...
money sloshing around will be robots trading against each other and a few nomads of finance and gambling.
best of luck to wis kid/program writer of algos...
like the dollar "once the faith gone" it aint comin back soon - after the great depression people never bought another stock ever...
why would this be any different. get out and stay out or get your ass reamed stroke by stroke...
Somebody here will tell you how you can play that with an ETF or options. Bet on it.
Players never quit. It's an addiction. Even street bums outside the casino will drop a found nickel in the slots.
Wrong! Volume is skewed lower artificially due to high price stocks.
If you run a "split adjusted" volume using just the top 5, you'd get a much different analysis on "volume"
AAPL 424 rerun 10x volume at 42
GOOG 583 rerun 10x volume at 58
IBM 191 rerun 3x volume at 63
AMZN 185 rerun 5x volume at 37
XOM 87 rerun 2x volume at 43
Citi 10x volume at 3
AIG 100x volume at 25 cents...
Damn cherry picker
lol
Take those 5 out of the market and you have computers with cobwebs everywhere.
Pathetic volume. Sorry, screens do not lie. And when volume is non-existent, I stand aside.
Low volume does not mean low price. "Volume precedes movement" means that volume is essential for confirmation of direction at the outset of a move. (and also can mark the capitulation/end of a move.) High volume on the downside would not equate to high price, but will be required to confirm significantly lower prices ahead.
I don't gamble, much. I rather sit at a table with a fair chance with a box of cards on the house than to buy a stock.
We did cash out mid 2000's and how.
This market must drop. Even the pumpers keeping the Hindenburg afloat in the sky must get light headed once in a while and fail.
Watching paint dry is not exciting for investors. I see it as a time to reposition.
Cash, metals, ammo etc.
The problem with these older guys, is that they remember when there really was a market. Now they just turn on the algo's and give them an up bias and off we go.
We really do not have markets.
I follow Suzie Orman predictions - like her female intuition
You're kidding, right?
Oh Suze?
She ALWAYS says DONT PAY THAT STUDENT LOAN! DONT PAY THAT CC OFF!
BULLSHIT. That debt is your chains. One for slavery and the other for sucking your health and general outlook into the future while contemplating the failed chinese crap you bought on that card.
I finally quit watching when we realized that half the shit the people ask permission to Suze to buy while sitting on mountains of money or assets... such bullshit.
"Hello Suze! I make 6000 dollars a month and only pay 3000 in house bills can I afford a 500 dollar purebred Chow chow?"
Do you have any savings? ... PAUSE... yes 401K 5000 dollars and are thinking of taking 500 from it.
PAUSE... Suze proceeds to have a meltdown and starts raving about penalty rates.
Such bile.
We are fucking profitable on a great deal LESS than 6000 goddamn dollars. It only takes about 300 a month to keep the house utilities and insurance current. (More or less)
What's Suzie saying?
As long as there is no supply this market can continue up, low volume or not.
Volume-be-damned, why do I have the uneasy feeling that somewhere, somehow, money is still changing hands?
"TECHNICALS"..."INDICATORS"??...
Watch them closely...A picture...Sometimes, perfect!