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Art Cashin Explains Why The One Key Indicator That Matters For Italy Is Flashing Red

Tyler Durden's picture


While economic data may be manipulated daily, and markets can be pumped in any of many different ways (such as the ongoing preparation by the ECB to accept any collateral for the upcoming LTRO which will bring the ECB's deposit facility usage to $1 trillion), there is one true indicator of economic prospects: immigration. Long a target for immigrants from all over the world, something has changed very drastically for Italy in recent days. Art Cashin explains why the one indicator that matters - Italy's desirability for immigrants from countries such as Afghanistan and Bangladesh, means everything has changed now.

From UBS

A Change Of Direction - On Tuesday night, I had the pleasure of marinating ice cubes with a very bright friend who happens to be a successful hedge fund manager of Greek heritage. We were discussing the Euro-zone problems and how austerity programs are bumping up against cultural and local habits.

I wondered aloud how these austerity programs would hold up when they clashed with the litmus test of life in the streets. That’s when my friend related the following story.

He has relatives still living in Greece, several in Patras, the country’s third largest city and a key port on the west coast, facing Italy and much of the Mediterranean. Over the decades, immigrants from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and other poor nations would work their way to Patras. They would stay for days or weeks awaiting a chance to smuggle themselves on to a freighter headed for Italy. Once there, they could make their way north into Europe to find hope and opportunity and maybe a job.

Last week his relatives told him that things were changing. The immigrants still come to their way station of Patras (hope still blooms). But now, after a couple of weeks in Greece, they are trying to hop ships going the other way. They are going back home. Life was better, or at least no worse, where they came from and they had friends and family for support back there.

If that’s what’s going on in the initial days of austerity, what will the streets of Athens or Napoli or Marseilles look like when austerity really takes hold? This will not be settled in days or weeks or months - and its impact will be felt for decades.


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Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:43 | 2058157 gettingready8
gettingready8's picture

Pisani and Cramer are going nuts this morning.  People in the real world are waking up slowly, very slowly.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:47 | 2058173 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Flashing red -- like Art's gin bloom.

"Key indicator" from the Fermentation Committee Head quote the fictional Gordon Gekko,

"Tell me something I don't already know ?"

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:47 | 2058409 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

The man has 40 years don't have to act on his word but he's at least worth a listen.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 17:23 | 2059844 CPL
CPL's picture

If you want the real scoop you should check out

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 22:50 | 2060493 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Don't click on that link unless you want to be skeeved.  This guy is clearly a mil-spec douchebag.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:49 | 2058185 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

organized crime

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:04 | 2058236 Texas Ginslinger
Texas Ginslinger's picture

I thought Cramer was nuts all the time.

Speaking of the guy, anyone know if his nemesis Leonard the wonder monkey is still picking stocks..??


Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:50 | 2058174 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

2012-2013:  The year of the global riots and massacres

Fascism has always been one of the easiest ways to cull and "purify" populations.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:10 | 2058254 MarketWatchTerrorist
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One of the only intelligent comments I've read in this thread thus far.  You get it.  As a veteran, you have a psychological advantage over most of these people because you understand something about humanity that civilians rarely do.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:25 | 2058326 The Count
The Count's picture

As a Vet how do feel about the military having been hijacked to fight for the interests of the bankers,not the American people.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:50 | 2058187 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Don't worry the markets are at least happy with the developments... what a sad joke.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:52 | 2058195 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Leave the gun, take the cannoli...

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:52 | 2058197 eucalyptus
eucalyptus's picture

if anyone's been to a football match in napoli, they'll know it's already rough as fuck and a shithole.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:55 | 2058209 Blkhat117
Blkhat117's picture

In a weird way we could see Reversed immagration in the US. Headline reads 'Illegal immigrants fleeing back in to Mexico in the midst of major economic turmoil'.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:21 | 2058268 MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

And not a single tear would be shed at their departure...


But very, very few of them ever leave.  And most will bring their family from Mexico here at the first chance.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 15:05 | 2059189 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

The illegals are already self-deporting due to the bad economy.

I wouldnt consider that exactly GOOD news on the whole.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 16:11 | 2059507 dugorama
dugorama's picture

Actually the Census Bureau now estimates net immigration from Mexico to be negative.  And the reason(s) is/are not the draconian laws in Alabama or Arizona, nor the trillion dollar (or whatever it is) fence from Texas to Calif.  Rather, the birth rate in MX has fallen from almost 7 in 1990 to 2.  Their GDP per capita is no longer falling (it was always rapidly growing, just not as rapidly as the population), unlike the US's (the population is growing slowly, the economy even slower - to negative).

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:16 | 2058279 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

It's been happening for quite a while...  the lack of availability of jobs compounded with the increased desire of americans to get off their asses and work (for cheaper) has sent many back home.  There was a pretty long window to get established...  those who didn't are SOL now.  Those jobs will be going to americans.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:27 | 2058590 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

It isn't being talked about, but after the illegals go home I suspect that women are going to be squeezed out of the job market too - not enough jobs to go around. It happened after WWII when the men came home from war and it could easily happen again, unless of course there is another war and all those young men get siphoned off by the draft.  China and India have a bunch of excess men they would probably like to get rid of.  They're stuck with all of that testosterone and not enough women for those guys to focus it on.    

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:24 | 2058321 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

It's been happening in the US for a while (at least 2008) both at the high end with bankers and the low end with day laborers.  People follow perceived opportunity, and the US is just as screwed up as the EU.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 16:12 | 2059515 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Do not like ILLEGAL immigration but I dred the day Mexico builds a wall to keep us out..

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 21:08 | 2060295 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

I was thinking that as I read this post.

Here's something I recall reading back in 2009.

11/19/2009 "Reverse Remittances" on the Rise in Mexico


Families in Mexico were sending money back into the US.  The claim was that joblessness during the downturn meant immigrants in US needed cash.


It may be returning back to normal by now.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:57 | 2058213 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Massive EUR short squeeze under way.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:02 | 2058223 Richard Weed
Richard Weed's picture




Wow... immagine that...!

Immigrants going back to their homeland... that sounds like a good thing to me... one is  much happier in  one's homeland, and one can bring the acquired skills from abroad back and make the homeland a better place.


Sounds like a win-win to me.


But what do I know... I am just a Dick Weed.



Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:07 | 2058230 MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

Oh noes, Europeans won't have millions of uneducated violent Muslim savages pouring into their countries and destroying their cultures any more.  Yes, this is a truely tragic indicator of European decline.




Only an American stuck in the paradigm of fiat based infinite growth economics could possibly think it is a bad thing to have less filthy, diseased, uneducated, criminals pouring into your first world, mostly white nation.  "Bu...but...but, our fiat based infinite growth economic system requires infinitely growing civilian populations to fuel our infinitely growing monetary bases and infinitely growing corporate profits."


Your infinite growth based fiat economies are failing bucko.  On a long enough time line the survival rate for everyone drops to zero, bitchez.


The thin veneer of peaceful coexistence between different races and cultures is maintained only in times of relative abundance.  When there is plenty of resources to go around there is little reason to fight.  When times get tough the wagons are circled around family, community - tribe.  As everyone on this site is apt to point out, you do not want to be the "rich gringo" in South America should things get truly tough because you'll become a target for the locals.  Nor do you want to be a non-white person in Idaho or Montana should the rule of law break down...


If the process of leveling standards of living globally saves the white race in its European homeland from being overrun, outbred, and domianted by violent Muslim savages then I think we've found the silver lining to the New World Order.  Under a one world government with relatively level stanards of living there is less incentive for the mud races to pollute Europe with their filth.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:09 | 2058250 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

You sir are the filthy uneducated savage. Post your hate elsewhere.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:43 | 2058394 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

Clearly three people junked you cause of the use of the word "sir" where not warranted.

Impressive turn out of baiting trolls for this piece. They're actually running the board at this point. Oh's mid-morning in Merika....most everybody with a brain is out trying to hussle up enuff to stay offa Obummers food stamp program.  The DHS\TSA paid work from home deadenders are jus makin hay while the sun shines!

Seriously, RK, why even respond to this retard...I'd swerve to avoid it jus to keep my tires from getting dirty!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:57 | 2058444 MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

"Anyone who disagrees with me is a paid troll."


Cool fantasy world you live in.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:35 | 2058624 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

It's true, I should have allowed for the possibilty that your spite-filled ignorance was spewed forth here entirely free of any commercial endorsement, and that you are merely a victim of some kind of mind-purging drug experiment.  My apologies.

millions of uneducated violent Muslim savages pouring into their countries and destroying their cultures any more.

This  textbook Sio-Nazi crap is distributed solely to encourage Christian and Muslim cultures to divide into warring camps which the real racial hegemonists in tel aviv can then control and eliminate. If you're not a troll then you're a dupe.  Feel better?!?

All of you fanatic fans of drooling MSM bullshit who buy into this pathetic swill please junk me. A swarm of flies is unappealing, but hardly going to ruin my day.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 15:08 | 2059202 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

There are no racial hegemonists in Tel Aviv that have any real power.

It's all about MONEY and POWER. Racial gimmicks and concepts are just a tool used to by the PTB to gain and hold power.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 19:53 | 2060180 MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

Tell that to the racially homogeneous Chinese as they are steam rolling their way to global hegemony these next hundred years while the multi-cultural West continues to decline under the domination of non-white invaders that ruin every Western nation just like they ruined their own.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 19:51 | 2060176 MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

I don't read your long winded replies because you are so clearly retarded.  But keep wasting your (no doubt worthless) time with your conspiracy theory that everyone who posts something you don't like is a "paid troll."


Who would pay people to post realistic views on race?  You really think the government has an interest in spreading white racialist ideology?


Like I said, you're mind numbingly retarded.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 00:44 | 2060680 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

He He he!

Though this thread be stale by now, you are clearly coming back to smell your old, after a refreshing night's sleep, I welcome the opportunity to answer the question you pose poseur - if only for da record!

Who would pay people to post realistic views on race?  You really think the government has an interest in spreading white racialist ideology?

 While it's a tad over-ambitious to call your views on 'race' "realistic," the real comedic potential is in your self-professed  white racialist ideology. Here is the mark of the true sionist-owned shill, the dupe who set's up a phony "white vs others" paradigm in hopes of attracting a quorum of other sub-normals in similar need of projecting their personal inferiority complex(es) onto a convenient screen. 

This AIPAC driven smokescreen is actually inimical to the interests and survival of any DNA haplogroup which may loosely fit the description implied by the term "white," and therefore is a clear attack upon all of us melatoninally-challenged peoples who are under attack from the genocidal racial-supremacist sionist empire. Louis Farrakan and other 'non-white' people who understand the threat to their own existence posed by the divide n conquer sionist cabbalists are actually much better allies of the 'white race' than you and your pot-scrapings.

I realize that there are way too many +four letter words in there for you brainiac, so let me boil it down to suit your intellectual shoe size.....

Yu  an yur type are race traitors, hired shills of the khazar slavers whose hatred of almost all the rest of the peoples of the world goes back to their grudge against the (nordics)Rus Vikings and (aryan) Persians who got together a millenium or so ago to shut down their swampland empire in the Volga marshes, and the trade in "white, blue-eyed, blonde haired" victims of your current masters' forefathers. Yea, the ones who run the ZOG empire occupying DC and all major capitals of the western states...the ones with the interest and the bucks to pay you to spread your so-called white racialist ideology....questions answered Moron!

  Now please take yur own advice(see below) and go back to where yu come from!


Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:04 | 2058231 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Poor Art Cashin is ill-equipped to deal with modern trading.


He's still stuck in the old days, where "fundamentals" mattered.

Today, it is all about 21-year old joystick jockeys chasing motion, and millions of hedge fund managers who cannot resist the urge to max out their margin accounts when margin interest is only 1.2%.

Poor Art is being stampeded by the young ones who are devouring the old guard.

Did Art see the greatest consumer and REIT 3-year stock rally in history?


Did he see the most spectacular boom in Treasuries and muni-bonds?



Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:22 | 2058263 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

He gets first place for not being wrong about fundamentals but never being right on market direction. There was an oldtimer like him back during the internet boom days, Michael Merz or Mertz, who year after year as the stock market, Nasdaq especially, kept moving higher and higher kept making his wrong predictions based on fundamentals driving himself wacko until he died before the markets finally cratered.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:20 | 2058297 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Did RoboTarder see gold going over $900? Nope.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:36 | 2058371 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Pennies, steamroller.

All you mention is essentially ramping up risk. How did that work out for you in 2008?

Actually, some would argue it worked out just fine, as they were bailed out. But in an actual market economy, and not Bernanke's centrally planned vision, those banks would now be long gone.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:44 | 2058391 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Dude- do you REALLY have the gnads to judge Art Cashin?  

Seriously-  your shit on this board has demonstrated a LEGENDARY level of cluelessness;

Hey Tyler-  how bout a running total of how many junks Robo has received over the years?

Robo, you don't possess the level of competence to predict if my dog will take a dump in the morning......

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:04 | 2058235 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Hey guys hurry out to the barn quick!  Where's uncle Warren ? IBM's delivering a baby turd....

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:05 | 2058237 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

A New Modern Day Holy Roman Empire is what is forming...

Nothing New Under the Sun.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:05 | 2058239 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Let us not forget that all of the EU rescue mechanisms, and the imposition of heavy austerity, is so BANK BONDHOLDERS don`t have to take losses for their misallocation of capital and poor risk management.

Of course it is the average citizens of each country who are now bearing most of the consequences for saving the bondholders.

Will be interesting to see which citizens from which countries rise up first.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:10 | 2058251 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Nobody will rise up anywhere in Europe (or America) until governments dangle the threat of taking away 160 years of (completely insolvent) welfare state entitlements.

We are all part of the ponzi, whether we like it or not.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:14 | 2058270 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Which is another way of saying only when the threat of starvation and desperate poverty becomes as real as it can get. Agree. Long tents

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:22 | 2058308 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Self deception. Some things are metempirical, don't look for a Bloomberg headline announcing that the old is now obsolete.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:39 | 2058379 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Not a ponzi at all. It would totally work, if we all agree to having more than 2.1 children/couple.

Oh wait a mi

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:07 | 2058497 the tower
the tower's picture

I wonder what will happen when technology can take all work out of our hands, and how far are we from that moment?


Will we destroy technology to live a life of work, just so we can keep the ponzi going?


Or will we change the economic/monetary laws to fit our new way of living?


What is it that we want?



Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:39 | 2058636 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I thought we keep the entitlements and just inflate our way out? Did I miss a memo?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:57 | 2058698 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Tyler - Agreed we are part of the Ponzi...but the "market" will take away the purchasing power of the Gov't "entitlements". And certain elements of society will "rise up".

Inflation (hyper?) from printing of fiat currency will drive the cost of the basic food stuffs and energy (heating oil, gasoline) up and will far surpass the p.power of Gov't cash handouts.

Given the anticipated Obama Admin re-election strategy of class warfare, color based entitlements, driven to a clarion call by thde MSM, the probability of a "rise up" must be > 50% in 2012. Then add in an Iran strike in 2012 to deflect attention from the struggling economy.

I guess it depends on one's definiton of "rise up", but 2012 there will be a "rise" at a minimum.


Thu, 01/12/2012 - 13:17 | 2058752 slewie the pi-rat
Thu, 01/12/2012 - 16:16 | 2059532 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Once again hunger and only hunger changes this, if the PTB can keep the DWS bellies full it is going to be dark, dank and fascist for a loooonng time..

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:07 | 2058244 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

I could write a nice summary of how Mexicans are doing similar things at the Arizona border but that would just confuse the number watchers with acute market myopia...

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:08 | 2058248 wagefreedom
wagefreedom's picture

'marinating ice cubes' --- You have to love Art Cashin. Have to.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:12 | 2058257 dolph9
dolph9's picture

One the one hand, Cashin is probably right.  Less immigration means the economy is coming to a standstill in the country.

On the other hand, how Italy benefits from third world immigration is beyond me (other than of course allowing corrupt politicians and corporate whores to get votes and cheap labor).

The same could be said about population growth.  A growing population means a growing economy.

But when was the last time any of you sat in traffic and thought to yourselves, "We need more people here."

I can't ever remember thinking that.  Every single place I've been has been crawling with people.  I'm no monster, but I'm quite frankly sick of people.

All you religious idiots and conspiracy theorists can kiss my ass.  The world is overpopulated.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:14 | 2058273 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

True, but Europe especially with its negative native population rate needs workers to fund the pensions.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:27 | 2058329 MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

Wrong.  Let the ponzi collapse.  The "pensions" and social security plans are all ponzi schemes built on the notion of infinite growth, just like our economy.


What are the old people going to do about it?  Revolution?  I don't think so.  The government wrote checks that the (declining number of) young folks ain't willing (or able) to cash.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 16:18 | 2059549 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

THINK..  With enough foreign workers to sustainably fund those entitlements the Government that hands them out is long gone and sharia has taken its place..  Nope, doesn't work..

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:40 | 2058637 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

They are forecasting a population of 10 billion by 2100.  I'm glad I won't be here to see it. 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 14:45 | 2059102 xela2200
xela2200's picture

I believe that the underlying problem we have right now is that we are approaching the carrying capacity of the world. Resources are been strained. The next generation will have to live in a world with scarcity as been the norm (oil, silver, copper, etc). Right now, if everybody in the world wanted to have an once of gold, there would not be enough gold for everyone.

But what is the solution? There are so many people imposing their values on other by means of government. The church also doesn't help much. They are not going to reduce their customer base.

A friend of mine told me how in Cuba when a woman turns 16, she can go to a government free clinic and get a T (no questions asked and no permission needed). He mentioned how his girlfriend and he waited to have sex until then. Can you imagine what would happened if we did that here in the states?

One can make a moral argument for or against. However, over population eventually is going to lead to famine or war. Humans behave like a virus. In natures, there are only 2 outcomes when an organism is been attacked by a virus 1) either the host kills the virus or at least returns to a state of balance, 2) the virus kills the host and both die.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:12 | 2058267 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Self-made fortunes are popping up from China and non-Japan Asia, no longer from Western developed countries. Rolls-Royce had record Asia. Yacht sales in Germany are propped up by....Asians (including Russians but that's a debate for another time). 

For immigrants its simple: Follow de Moneee

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 15:02 | 2059107 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Jim Rogers moved to China right?

I think the theme for the next decade will be mobility. We will have to go where the opportunities are.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:15 | 2058276 wharfdaddy
wharfdaddy's picture

I'm going home..It's better in Dhaka..amazing

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:19 | 2058291 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bye-bye Mr Safetydollar.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:31 | 2058344 alexwest
alexwest's picture


let me get this straight.. there wont be any new immigrants like #ucking un- educated people from Pakistan/India/Bangladesh so somehow its gonna be worse for italy...

hey idiot... read couple books 'bout Rome/italy/Sulla/Cesar..

they were civilised and had toilets way way before pre pre pre pre ancestors of
Mr Cashin were yet shitting/eating in same place ..

what a loser


Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:42 | 2058650 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

How do you know where Art Cashins ancestors are from? Far as you know they were from Italy.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 14:55 | 2059134 xela2200
xela2200's picture

I don't know why, but when I think of Cashin, I think of Irish whiskey. Maybe Bushmills. OK I think that I have to go to the store now.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 14:52 | 2059124 xela2200
xela2200's picture

I don't think that He is implying that the loss of those immigrants will be better or worst for the country. Rather, the fact that less immigrants are showing up is a sign that Italy is getting poorer or has less opportunities. People in Greece are abandoning their children on the streets. Who would even consider moving to Greece right now?


Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:31 | 2058348 toadold
toadold's picture

"Oh Noze, all the people who voted for me are leaving the country!"

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:41 | 2058384 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Read it again. Through Greece, through Italy, to northern Europe. Already convinced by what they see and hear in Greece that there is no reason to press forward.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 13:01 | 2058717 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

And that's the point, imo. The Art Cashin Immigration Indicator is not an absolute measure, but, like a barometer, it is sensitive to relative changes at the margins, i.e. trend changes. Whether illegal immigration is good for Italy (or Europe, or the US) is a separate question.

Anecdotally, I see the same process is at work in the San Francisco Bay Area. Sidewalks that used to be crowded every morning with day laborers looking for work are now practically deserted. The local population of undocumented immigrants has traditionally gone home for Christmas, but this year many of them didn't bother to come back.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 13:34 | 2058808 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

It's all broadly a sign of economic breakdown. People go home when there's no jobs, money is repatriated to cover local concerns/debts. Broadly speaking worldwide integration peaked right before WW1, and then the movie played backwards for 30 years. Then post WW2 we restarted the process by moving towards more integration until 2007. Now we're going the other way again. Unfortunately this human cycle includes wars and serious economic problems as we unwind excesses.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:44 | 2058392 MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

Here's a quick primer on population decline and how it relates to macro economics since some of you seem confused on the matter.


First, accept the relatively self evident statement that a nation derives its strength from its population.  At the most base level, think available military man power.  Beyond that, think the multiplying effects of an educated population vs. an uneducated one.  Quantity and quality are variables in the equation, but the most educated population on Earth won't do you any good if you can't field sufficient military man power against a nation like China.


Therefore, a declining population presents the nation (and its rulers) with the proposition of declining power, both national and individual for the rulers, and international standing.  This is why Russia and other Eastern European nations pay women rather substantial sums to have more than 1 or 2 children.  As their population declines, their power declines.


Second, accept that the current global economic system is built on the notion of infinite growth.  Infinite inflation, infinitely growing monetary base, infinitely growing corporate profits. 


You cannot have that kind of infinite economic growth without an infinitely growing population.  Corporations need more consumers.  This is why the U.S. opened its Southern border.  It was a strategic economic decision to avoid being in the situation Europe is in right now.  White women simply stopped having enough babies after the introduction of the birth control pill.


Now ask yourself if infinite growth is possible in a finite reality.  The Earth doesn't seem as big at 7 billion as it did when there were less than a billion people on it.  Therefore, the current economic paradigm of infinite growth MUST fail.  Indeed, it is failing before our very eyes.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:19 | 2058549 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

What, did you just get a memo to tone it down....or are you switched over to pay by word? You sound almost half coherent now with this jewel of circular reasoning and verbal diarrhea....


a nation derives its strength from its population.  At the most base level, think available military man power....etc. etc.

Kind o lucky that military leaders such as what lead troops into battle in Korea n what'al failed to accept the self evidence of your pearls of wisdom, else they never would have even shown up for the fight!  In a similar vein, America's armies should be quaking in terror at the might of the Indian Army right now, were they to have embraced your strategic insights! 

Technology mandates military & economic superiority, not raw numbers numbnut.  And when technology reaches the limits of what it can accomplish(as we are seeing now with the drone technology of the Western Terror Alliance), then the most important condition of all that you have missed in your babbling becomes er,....self-evident.....

A nation derives it's strength from it's morals, which create the will to recover from loss, provide the morale for renewal after defeat, and the vision\wisdom by which it can avoid either. Morals are not the exclusive preserve of any geographic or political area of this earth, and belong just as much (if not more at this time of degeneration in the West) to the misnomed unwashed(the objects of your ignorant musings who indeed wash more times in a day than you may in a week!?!?!)

What's failing before our very eyes here is your ability to provide reasonable cause for having taken up so much of our attention on this thread.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:45 | 2058658 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

By that, apparently, the US needn't bother to count on us when the going gets rough.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 15:21 | 2059276 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

Now ask yourself if infinite growth is possible in a finite reality.  The Earth doesn't seem as big at 7 billion as it did when there were less than a billion people on it.  Therefore, the current economic paradigm of infinite growth MUST fail. 

Not necesarily.

All we really need is *effective* infinitely growing CONSUMPTION. Actual infinite growth is merely a projection that would require infinite amount of time to reach anyway, so its merely hypothetical.

As technology ramps up the ability for us to consume more, it also ramps up demand and that demand pushes the hunt for new resources which are in practical terms far more than we will ever need.

Look at all the resources available in our own solar system. Do you really think the population of our Earth is going to require more than all the planets, planetoids, moons and asteroids have to give us? And our ability to not only recycle but also to break down and reconsitute material is growing as well.

So the answer to your question is YES, we can have effective infinite-projection growth in demand for the allotted time fate gives us.

The true precious resource is not material, but the human mind, creativity and intelligence.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 19:56 | 2060187 MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

Obama shut down NASA because they didn't hire enough minorities.  He appointed a black man to NASA that said his primary mission was to reach out to the Muslim world (google it bitch).


Ain't gonna be no honkies in space utopian Sci-Fi future.  We're 7 billion violent apes stuck on the Earth in global ponzi scheme in decline.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 16:31 | 2059607 malek
malek's picture

Now ask yourself if infinite growth is possible in a finite reality.

I did. Someone else came up with the correct answer, and I was unprejudiced enough to accept it's wisdom:

 "Do you think there is a limit to how many things can still be discovered or invented by man?"

Nope, for all we know that is and always will remain unlimited.
So the complete finiteness of our reality is a fallacy and bullshit.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 19:56 | 2060191 MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

What kind of utopian fantasy bull shit is that?  I hope your 7 children starve to death in the streets when reality slaps your imbecilic delusions down to reality.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 01:19 | 2060732 malek
malek's picture

Try to push your prejudices aside and answer the fucking question I posted

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:03 | 2058432 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Frank Nitti on foreigners (24 second clip):



Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:52 | 2058662 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

Well, at least the good ol U S of A will not experience the same problem as northern europe."New data from the Census Bureau show that the nation’s immigrant population (legal and illegal), also referred to as the foreign-born, reached 40 million in 2010, the highest number in American history. Nearly 14 million new immigrants (legal and illegal) settled in the country from 2000 to 2010, making it the highest decade of immigration in American history.

Looks like there will be enough immigrants to pay for my SS. Plus, PLUS the quota for 2012 H1b of 85k already has toooooo many applications. Course one cannot find the data on the USCIS website about how many of these H1b's already here have converted their visas to Green Cards. Probably 100%. GBA

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 13:15 | 2058755 Apply Force
Apply Force's picture

I'm pretty sure that the immigrants got the call to return home before you were privy to the (old) data... there are loads of empty apartments - 1000 unit complexes - that now stand near-vacant that were once filled with WORKING (even if under the table) immigrants.  At least in the mid-west, this picture is common in larger cities...

Regardless, good luck with the SS, I'm sure the central planners designed that well enough to continue for a while - just not on my time-line.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 19:58 | 2060193 MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

White people from the Fascist States of America, overrun with non-white hordes, should emigrate enmasse back to their homeland in Europe.  That'll solve multiple problems at once.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 00:11 | 2060625 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

Excellent idea....

now here's a chance for you to show some real leadership, instead of just frothing at the mouth!  In fact, the idea of you returning to your roots somewhere in Lodz, or perhaps the idyllic Galician hills is so inspiring that I would be happy to chip in for your passage via steerage class.


Thu, 01/12/2012 - 13:25 | 2058778 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

Wherever you are, you go with what you know. Being trapped by circumstances, in a strange place, is not fun. It's worse if the circumstances make you vulnerable to whatever and whoever comes along. Hard choices are coming, for everyone. There is no thing more insecure than the promise of a politician.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 15:01 | 2059171 Buyemall
Buyemall's picture

tyler any posts commenting on the philly fed august number revision?

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