Art Cashin Explains Why The One Key Indicator That Matters For Italy Is Flashing Red

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While economic data may be manipulated daily, and markets can be pumped in any of many different ways (such as the ongoing preparation by the ECB to accept any collateral for the upcoming LTRO which will bring the ECB's deposit facility usage to $1 trillion), there is one true indicator of economic prospects: immigration. Long a target for immigrants from all over the world, something has changed very drastically for Italy in recent days. Art Cashin explains why the one indicator that matters - Italy's desirability for immigrants from countries such as Afghanistan and Bangladesh, means everything has changed now.

From UBS

A Change Of Direction - On Tuesday night, I had the pleasure of marinating ice cubes with a very bright friend who happens to be a successful hedge fund manager of Greek heritage. We were discussing the Euro-zone problems and how austerity programs are bumping up against cultural and local habits.

I wondered aloud how these austerity programs would hold up when they clashed with the litmus test of life in the streets. That’s when my friend related the following story.

He has relatives still living in Greece, several in Patras, the country’s third largest city and a key port on the west coast, facing Italy and much of the Mediterranean. Over the decades, immigrants from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and other poor nations would work their way to Patras. They would stay for days or weeks awaiting a chance to smuggle themselves on to a freighter headed for Italy. Once there, they could make their way north into Europe to find hope and opportunity and maybe a job.

Last week his relatives told him that things were changing. The immigrants still come to their way station of Patras (hope still blooms). But now, after a couple of weeks in Greece, they are trying to hop ships going the other way. They are going back home. Life was better, or at least no worse, where they came from and they had friends and family for support back there.

If that’s what’s going on in the initial days of austerity, what will the streets of Athens or Napoli or Marseilles look like when austerity really takes hold? This will not be settled in days or weeks or months - and its impact will be felt for decades.

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Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:43 | 2058157 gettingready8
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Pisani and Cramer are going nuts this morning.  People in the real world are waking up slowly, very slowly.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:47 | 2058173 Jay Gould Esq.
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Flashing red -- like Art's gin bloom.

"Key indicator" from the Fermentation Committee Head Sommelier...to quote the fictional Gordon Gekko,

"Tell me something I don't already know ?"

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:47 | 2058409 stocktivity
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The man has 40 years experience....you don't have to act on his word but he's at least worth a listen.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 17:23 | 2059844 CPL
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If you want the real scoop you should check out http://www.specialfriedrice.net/

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 22:50 | 2060493 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Don't click on that link unless you want to be skeeved.  This guy is clearly a mil-spec douchebag.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:49 | 2058185 Everybodys All ...
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organized crime

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:04 | 2058236 Texas Ginslinger
Texas Ginslinger's picture

I thought Cramer was nuts all the time.

Speaking of the guy, anyone know if his nemesis Leonard the wonder monkey is still picking stocks..??

 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:50 | 2058174 apberusdisvet
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2012-2013:  The year of the global riots and massacres

Fascism has always been one of the easiest ways to cull and "purify" populations.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:10 | 2058254 MarketWatchTerrorist
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One of the only intelligent comments I've read in this thread thus far.  You get it.  As a veteran, you have a psychological advantage over most of these people because you understand something about humanity that civilians rarely do.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:25 | 2058326 The Count
The Count's picture

As a Vet how do feel about the military having been hijacked to fight for the interests of the bankers,not the American people.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:50 | 2058187 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Don't worry the markets are at least happy with the developments... what a sad joke.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:52 | 2058195 SheepDog-One
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Leave the gun, take the cannoli...

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:52 | 2058197 eucalyptus
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if anyone's been to a football match in napoli, they'll know it's already rough as fuck and a shithole.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:55 | 2058209 Blkhat117
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In a weird way we could see Reversed immagration in the US. Headline reads 'Illegal immigrants fleeing back in to Mexico in the midst of major economic turmoil'.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:21 | 2058268 MarketWatchTerrorist
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And not a single tear would be shed at their departure...

 

But very, very few of them ever leave.  And most will bring their family from Mexico here at the first chance.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 15:05 | 2059189 JimBowie1958
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The illegals are already self-deporting due to the bad economy.

I wouldnt consider that exactly GOOD news on the whole.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 16:11 | 2059507 dugorama
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Actually the Census Bureau now estimates net immigration from Mexico to be negative.  And the reason(s) is/are not the draconian laws in Alabama or Arizona, nor the trillion dollar (or whatever it is) fence from Texas to Calif.  Rather, the birth rate in MX has fallen from almost 7 in 1990 to 2.  Their GDP per capita is no longer falling (it was always rapidly growing, just not as rapidly as the population), unlike the US's (the population is growing slowly, the economy even slower - to negative).

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:16 | 2058279 MachoMan
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It's been happening for quite a while...  the lack of availability of jobs compounded with the increased desire of americans to get off their asses and work (for cheaper) has sent many back home.  There was a pretty long window to get established...  those who didn't are SOL now.  Those jobs will be going to americans.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:27 | 2058590 Things that go bump
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It isn't being talked about, but after the illegals go home I suspect that women are going to be squeezed out of the job market too - not enough jobs to go around. It happened after WWII when the men came home from war and it could easily happen again, unless of course there is another war and all those young men get siphoned off by the draft.  China and India have a bunch of excess men they would probably like to get rid of.  They're stuck with all of that testosterone and not enough women for those guys to focus it on.    

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:24 | 2058321 Urban Redneck
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It's been happening in the US for a while (at least 2008) both at the high end with bankers and the low end with day laborers.  People follow perceived opportunity, and the US is just as screwed up as the EU.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 16:12 | 2059515 Calmyourself
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Do not like ILLEGAL immigration but I dred the day Mexico builds a wall to keep us out..

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 21:08 | 2060295 jonjon831983
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I was thinking that as I read this post.

Here's something I recall reading back in 2009.

11/19/2009 "Reverse Remittances" on the Rise in Mexico

http://www.latina.com/lifestyle/news-politics/reverse-remittances-rise-mexico

 

Families in Mexico were sending money back into the US.  The claim was that joblessness during the downturn meant immigrants in US needed cash.

 

It may be returning back to normal by now.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:57 | 2058213 firstdivision
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Massive EUR short squeeze under way.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:02 | 2058223 Richard Weed
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>

 

 

Wow... immagine that...!

Immigrants going back to their homeland... that sounds like a good thing to me... one is  much happier in  one's homeland, and one can bring the acquired skills from abroad back and make the homeland a better place.

 

Sounds like a win-win to me.

 

But what do I know... I am just a Dick Weed.

 

>

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:07 | 2058230 MarketWatchTerrorist
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Oh noes, Europeans won't have millions of uneducated violent Muslim savages pouring into their countries and destroying their cultures any more.  Yes, this is a truely tragic indicator of European decline.

 

Not.

 

Only an American stuck in the paradigm of fiat based infinite growth economics could possibly think it is a bad thing to have less filthy, diseased, uneducated, criminals pouring into your first world, mostly white nation.  "Bu...but...but, our fiat based infinite growth economic system requires infinitely growing civilian populations to fuel our infinitely growing monetary bases and infinitely growing corporate profits."

 

Your infinite growth based fiat economies are failing bucko.  On a long enough time line the survival rate for everyone drops to zero, bitchez.

 

The thin veneer of peaceful coexistence between different races and cultures is maintained only in times of relative abundance.  When there is plenty of resources to go around there is little reason to fight.  When times get tough the wagons are circled around family, community - tribe.  As everyone on this site is apt to point out, you do not want to be the "rich gringo" in South America should things get truly tough because you'll become a target for the locals.  Nor do you want to be a non-white person in Idaho or Montana should the rule of law break down...

 

If the process of leveling standards of living globally saves the white race in its European homeland from being overrun, outbred, and domianted by violent Muslim savages then I think we've found the silver lining to the New World Order.  Under a one world government with relatively level stanards of living there is less incentive for the mud races to pollute Europe with their filth.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:09 | 2058250 RoadKill
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You sir are the filthy uneducated savage. Post your hate elsewhere.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:43 | 2058394 JOYFUL
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Clearly three people junked you cause of the use of the word "sir" where not warranted.

Impressive turn out of baiting trolls for this piece. They're actually running the board at this point. Oh wait....it's mid-morning in Merika....most everybody with a brain is out trying to hussle up enuff to stay offa Obummers food stamp program.  The DHS\TSA paid work from home deadenders are jus makin hay while the sun shines!

Seriously, RK, why even respond to this retard...I'd swerve to avoid it jus to keep my tires from getting dirty!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:57 | 2058444 MarketWatchTerrorist
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"Anyone who disagrees with me is a paid troll."

 

Cool fantasy world you live in.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:35 | 2058624 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

It's true, I should have allowed for the possibilty that your spite-filled ignorance was spewed forth here entirely free of any commercial endorsement, and that you are merely a victim of some kind of mind-purging drug experiment.  My apologies.

millions of uneducated violent Muslim savages pouring into their countries and destroying their cultures any more.

This  textbook Sio-Nazi crap is distributed solely to encourage Christian and Muslim cultures to divide into warring camps which the real racial hegemonists in tel aviv can then control and eliminate. If you're not a troll then you're a dupe.  Feel better?!?

All of you fanatic fans of drooling MSM bullshit who buy into this pathetic swill please junk me. A swarm of flies is unappealing, but hardly going to ruin my day.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 15:08 | 2059202 JimBowie1958
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There are no racial hegemonists in Tel Aviv that have any real power.

It's all about MONEY and POWER. Racial gimmicks and concepts are just a tool used to by the PTB to gain and hold power.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 19:53 | 2060180 MarketWatchTerrorist
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Tell that to the racially homogeneous Chinese as they are steam rolling their way to global hegemony these next hundred years while the multi-cultural West continues to decline under the domination of non-white invaders that ruin every Western nation just like they ruined their own.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 19:51 | 2060176 MarketWatchTerrorist
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I don't read your long winded replies because you are so clearly retarded.  But keep wasting your (no doubt worthless) time with your conspiracy theory that everyone who posts something you don't like is a "paid troll."

 

Who would pay people to post realistic views on race?  You really think the government has an interest in spreading white racialist ideology?

 

Like I said, you're mind numbingly retarded.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 00:44 | 2060680 JOYFUL
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He He he!

Though this thread be stale by now, you are clearly coming back to smell your old feces....so, after a refreshing night's sleep, I welcome the opportunity to answer the question you pose poseur - if only for da record!

Who would pay people to post realistic views on race?  You really think the government has an interest in spreading white racialist ideology?

 While it's a tad over-ambitious to call your views on 'race' "realistic," the real comedic potential is in your self-professed  white racialist ideology. Here is the mark of the true sionist-owned shill, the dupe who set's up a phony "white vs others" paradigm in hopes of attracting a quorum of other sub-normals in similar need of projecting their personal inferiority complex(es) onto a convenient screen. 

This AIPAC driven smokescreen is actually inimical to the interests and survival of any DNA haplogroup which may loosely fit the description implied by the term "white," and therefore is a clear attack upon all of us melatoninally-challenged peoples who are under attack from the genocidal racial-supremacist sionist empire. Louis Farrakan and other 'non-white' people who understand the threat to their own existence posed by the divide n conquer sionist cabbalists are actually much better allies of the 'white race' than you and your pot-scrapings.

I realize that there are way too many +four letter words in there for you brainiac, so let me boil it down to suit your intellectual shoe size.....

Yu  an yur type are race traitors, hired shills of the khazar slavers whose hatred of almost all the rest of the peoples of the world goes back to their grudge against the (nordics)Rus Vikings and (aryan) Persians who got together a millenium or so ago to shut down their swampland empire in the Volga marshes, and the trade in "white, blue-eyed, blonde haired" victims of your current masters' forefathers. Yea, the ones who run the ZOG empire occupying DC and all major capitals of the western states...the ones with the interest and the bucks to pay you to spread your so-called white racialist ideology....questions answered Moron!

  Now please take yur own advice(see below) and go back to where yu come from!

 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:04 | 2058231 RobotTrader
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Poor Art Cashin is ill-equipped to deal with modern trading.

 

He's still stuck in the old days, where "fundamentals" mattered.

Today, it is all about 21-year old joystick jockeys chasing motion, and millions of hedge fund managers who cannot resist the urge to max out their margin accounts when margin interest is only 1.2%.

Poor Art is being stampeded by the young ones who are devouring the old guard.

Did Art see the greatest consumer and REIT 3-year stock rally in history?

Nope.

Did he see the most spectacular boom in Treasuries and muni-bonds?

Nope.

 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:22 | 2058263 Randall Cabot
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He gets first place for not being wrong about fundamentals but never being right on market direction. There was an oldtimer like him back during the internet boom days, Michael Merz or Mertz, who year after year as the stock market, Nasdaq especially, kept moving higher and higher kept making his wrong predictions based on fundamentals driving himself wacko until he died before the markets finally cratered.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:20 | 2058297 SheepDog-One
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Did RoboTarder see gold going over $900? Nope.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:36 | 2058371 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Pennies, steamroller.

All you mention is essentially ramping up risk. How did that work out for you in 2008?

Actually, some would argue it worked out just fine, as they were bailed out. But in an actual market economy, and not Bernanke's centrally planned vision, those banks would now be long gone.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:44 | 2058391 jcaz
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Dude- do you REALLY have the gnads to judge Art Cashin?  

Seriously-  your shit on this board has demonstrated a LEGENDARY level of cluelessness;

Hey Tyler-  how bout a running total of how many junks Robo has received over the years?

Robo, you don't possess the level of competence to predict if my dog will take a dump in the morning......

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:04 | 2058235 scatterbrains
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Hey guys hurry out to the barn quick!  Where's uncle Warren ? IBM's delivering a baby turd....

http://fiatflaws.blogspot.com/2012/01/ibm-breaking-down.html

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:05 | 2058237 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

A New Modern Day Holy Roman Empire is what is forming...

Nothing New Under the Sun.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:05 | 2058239 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Let us not forget that all of the EU rescue mechanisms, and the imposition of heavy austerity, is so BANK BONDHOLDERS don`t have to take losses for their misallocation of capital and poor risk management.

Of course it is the average citizens of each country who are now bearing most of the consequences for saving the bondholders.

Will be interesting to see which citizens from which countries rise up first.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:10 | 2058251 Tyler Durden
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Nobody will rise up anywhere in Europe (or America) until governments dangle the threat of taking away 160 years of (completely insolvent) welfare state entitlements.

We are all part of the ponzi, whether we like it or not.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:14 | 2058270 Caviar Emptor
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Which is another way of saying only when the threat of starvation and desperate poverty becomes as real as it can get. Agree. Long tents

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:22 | 2058308 GeneMarchbanks
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Self deception. Some things are metempirical, don't look for a Bloomberg headline announcing that the old is now obsolete.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:39 | 2058379 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Not a ponzi at all. It would totally work, if we all agree to having more than 2.1 children/couple.

Oh wait a mi

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:07 | 2058497 the tower
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I wonder what will happen when technology can take all work out of our hands, and how far are we from that moment?

 

Will we destroy technology to live a life of work, just so we can keep the ponzi going?

 

Or will we change the economic/monetary laws to fit our new way of living?

 

What is it that we want?

 

 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:39 | 2058636 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I thought we keep the entitlements and just inflate our way out? Did I miss a memo?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:57 | 2058698 Clowns on Acid
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Tyler - Agreed we are part of the Ponzi...but the "market" will take away the purchasing power of the Gov't "entitlements". And certain elements of society will "rise up".

Inflation (hyper?) from printing of fiat currency will drive the cost of the basic food stuffs and energy (heating oil, gasoline) up and will far surpass the p.power of Gov't cash handouts.

Given the anticipated Obama Admin re-election strategy of class warfare, color based entitlements, driven to a clarion call by thde MSM, the probability of a "rise up" must be > 50% in 2012. Then add in an Iran strike in 2012 to deflect attention from the struggling economy.

I guess it depends on one's definiton of "rise up", but 2012 there will be a "rise" at a minimum.

 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 13:17 | 2058752 slewie the pi-rat
Thu, 01/12/2012 - 16:16 | 2059532 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Once again hunger and only hunger changes this, if the PTB can keep the DWS bellies full it is going to be dark, dank and fascist for a loooonng time..

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