Art Cashin Explains Why Several Hundred Thousand Jobs Are About To "Vaporize"

Tyler Durden's picture

Two days ago we learned that when MF Global goes bankrupt, billions in cash can just "vaporize" (no, really - see here, and of course, in the passive voice. can't say something like Jon Corzine vaporized $1.2+ billion in client money now can we). Next we have Art Cashin explain why it is that the US economy is about to see several hundred thousand jobs "vaporize" as well. Perhaps "vaporize" should be the motto of the current Administration: confidence "vaporized", hope "vaporized", and "evaporation" you can believe in, as it condenses on the teleprompter...

From Art Cashin UBS Financial Services:

Disappointing Jobs - While everyone seems to debating what the non-farm payroll numb will be Friday, a few are looking toward the annual revisions in the much debated Birth/Death model.

As you probably recall, it does not refer to the birth or death of humans. The badly named model refers to the birth and death of businesses. Each January the BLS revises the number, usually vaporizing thousands of jobs.

We were going to try and calculate the likely revision, but our sharp-eyed friend over at Bloomberg, Rich Yamarone, as usual, beat us to it. Here’s what he wrote in his Notepad column recently:

The Net Birth/Death (NBD) statistic adjustment – an adjustment the BLS uses to account for job creation or loss with respect to births and deaths of businesses – is always the weakest during January. Over the last five years the NBD for January has averaged -335k. [January 2011: -339k, January 2010: -427k, January2009: -356k, January 2008: -378k, January2007: -175k.]

So, if past is prologue, we could see three or four hundred thousand jobs vanish. Nothing like a dependable indicator.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
TruthInSunshine's picture


VanillAnalyst's picture

I vote to replace the word vaporize with sublimate. A) It sounds cooler, B) Less people know what it means. And as we all know, the more complicated something is, the more we get paid to voice our opinion on it.


-MC Corzine

ratso's picture

Tyler - the only thing that has vaporized is you rationaiity when it comes to evaluating the current administration.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Obama's credibility, vaporized!

Tortfeasor's picture

ratso's credibility, vaporized!


espirit's picture

Did Gingrich say "moombasa", or "moonbase" ?

trav7777's picture

the jobs don't actually can you vaporize vapor?

johnu1978's picture

You vaporize the jobs by hitting them with a Tetron Disruptor!



boiltherich's picture

You have never added one constructive word to this forum trav777, you closet case.

4horse's picture

the neuter sez: As governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney vetoed a bill paying for kosher food for our seniors in nursing homes. Holocaust survivors, who for the first time, were forced to eat non-kosher, because Romney thought $5 was too much to pay for our grandparents to eat kosher. Where is Mitt Romney's compassion for our seniors? Tuesday you can end Mitt Romney's hypocrisy on religious freedom, with a vote for Newt Gingrich. Paid for by Newt 2012.

thewhitelion's picture

An asshole of his proportions, and this is the best you can come up with?

4horse's picture

craven enslavement to a foreign nation. treason. betrayal

this special relationship is the best you can come up with . . .



the white lies -sex,sin,religion. hypocrisy. delusion,deceit,narcissism. Ambition- a mere tedium and quotidia, by comparison, with what's being underwritten by one sheldon adelson  .  .  . A hole of such proportions as a whole world could fall into

cbxer55's picture

More likely Moonbat. ;-)

UGrev's picture

You took the wrong pill, dumbshit. 

HardwoodAg's picture

Yup. Time to start taking a more pessimistic view.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

You can read a pessimistic view at my blog.  "How Long (Can This Keep This Going On)?" is the new article there.  I also write about gold, review Barron's, and other material I hope will entertain my readers.  Would you like a look?  Gmail me at my name and assure me you will behave.  I make people jump through this hoop to keep out spammers & bots.

dirtbagger's picture

I don't get the Obama haters.  Are you disappointed because he didn't wave his magic wand and make all of his campaign promises come true.   I really don't see that the Obama policies are fundamentally much different than what could have been expected from a McCain Presidency.  Would you all hate McCain (an old white guy) as much?  

The numbers on unemployment, gdp, inflation etc., have been massaged for decades and by all administrations.   Do you guys really think that any President gets to start their administration with a clean slate.  About 99% of any candidates platform is blue sky, with the exceptiion of war powers, the system does not give any president much wiggle room.

Time to grow up.  US polictics are not about party, sexual orientation, rights of the unborn, religion vs atheism; those issue touted by the MSM are just a sideshow.  US politics are about retention of power, money, and access to influence.   Obama's actions over the last 4 years are not any different than his predecesssors.   Why all the vitrol?


GeezerGeek's picture

Maybe it's because he is so blatantly anti-liberty and anti-America. Maybe it's because he's an arrogant fascist dictator. Maybe it's Obamacare and all the other unconstitutional crap he stands for, like appointees made without congressional approval while the Senate was in session. Even Clinton managed to give the impression that he liked the USA. Clearly 'O' does not.

On the other hand, I just am fed up with all the politicians, of both parties, who want to accrue power to themselves while ignoring the Constitution. I can't think of one living president I like, and precious few dead ones dating back to 1860.

And yes, I would hate McCain too. Think McCain-Feingold if you need a reason why.

GeorgeHayduke's picture

NDAA was sponsored by Republicans and passed by a Congress with a Republican majority. This fact is always conveniently missed or forgotten. They are all in on it folks.

Calmyourself's picture

I have not forgotten anything and I hate them for it and hate bammy for signing it on new years.. Sneaky bastard and when did he sign obamacare??  No, I hate them all, bamster is just in your face and easy to hate as he is so anti-everything most of us would like to believe we and America should stand for.

Raymond K Hessel's picture

Who controls the Senate, tardo?

GeorgeHayduke's picture

Can't give up the old paradigm of hate can you? It's takes a bill getting through both houses, included the Republican controlled one.

Cognitive dissonance is required to maintain your mindset. Enjoy it.

GeorgeHayduke's picture

Okay, okay, I looked it up and here's the actual senate votes for the NDAA:

Dems: 48

Repubs: 44

Independent: 1

Yep, The fact that the Senate had a Dem majority was surely decisive in the passage of this bill....but only in small mind of a conservative ideologue. Stick to name calling and meaningless debates over minutia. The larger picture is beyond your scope at this point in time.

Raymond K Hessel's picture

So, facts are inconvenient truths for you?

Dems are using their majority as if they have 100% of the seats.  It's not an illusion.

Apparently, you're a liberal idealogue but it's okay for you to name call but not other people.....  is this Newt Gingrinch? 

krispkritter's picture

I think they named that all wrong. It should be NADA, as in Bill of Rights? NADA.  Freedoms? NADA. Etc.  

roadhazard's picture

193 repubicans voted for it.  Thank you Soo much, "patriots".


The terrorists are us and they have won.

Raymond K Hessel's picture


Cass Sunstein alert.  

Fact, no bill gets passed by Congress unless Sen Reid and the Democrat controlled Senate votes to pass it.

Fact, no bill becomes a law until the President signs it or the Congress vote to override his veto.

Conjecture, these douchebag forum trolls are working for Cass Sunstein.

SomethingWicked's picture

We wouldn't hate McCain as much; we would hate him vastly more.

It was the reconciliation of the Libertarians that Obama would at least close GitMo and cease a war or two.  We underestimated just how little difference Obama VS McCain would make.

Vastly underestimated.

Think Mitt or Newt will be significantly different than Obama?  Think again. . . Think hard.

GeorgeHayduke's picture

You are right about underestimating Obama. I thought nothing could be worse than Bush, except possibly McCain and that dingbat Palin. But, it didn't matter, we still got Bush's 3rd term anyway, even with all of the promised change.

It goes back to my premise that ALL president are there to serve the interest of the entrenched elites. End of story.

boiltherich's picture

You know the guy is bad when even a gay liberal democrat (former democrat) like me did not and will not vote for the guy, when someone like me says something along the lines of "I never thought they would elect someone that would make me miss George BushCo."  But then the very first thing O'bummer did when he was sworn in was throw gay people under the bus, the bus we rode in the back of under republican rule. 

Why all the vitriol?  Because he does do what the others have done but then we expected that from others, we were promised a bill of goods and got less than zero, it is the hypocrisy that calls for the heaping of such scorn.  The sheer betrayal.  But then he was never a politician, he was a religion which you could either believe in or go away tagged as the racist they said you were.  Did not, will not vote for him, and on my list of worst to best presidents he has the new top spot replacing Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan who are now tied for second worst in our history.

trav7777's picture

get back in the fuckin closet

boiltherich's picture

With your fat ass in there?  Not a chance motherfucker!

boiltherich's picture

By the way, why did you not say "get back in the closet you fucking nigger?"  That was what you were thinking right?  Oh I do hope you have delectable young sons I can convert to gayness, and it sure as hell beats your ILK trying to recruit people into the cult life you have planned for them.  Be FRUITful and multiply so that the Fed can steal everything you ever make.  And for those that refuse to abide by the laws of the Fed and the treasury here is a special treat, we will make it illegal for you to cum, have an orgasm, enjoy being attracted to your life mate, and the best part is we can make religion take the fall for it!

Your life sucks, I can tell.  People with good lives do not say things like get back into the closet faggot.  And I am really sorry that your life sucks so bad you have to hate people you never met, but as long as you do all I can say is bitch you ain't going to make it when the shit comes down, because you are filth that nobody will put up with!  Lick my man cunt Trav, or no don't, you already stink worse and would pollute my crotch.

lasvegaspersona's picture


when the guy in the oval office tries to take the credit he automatically gets the blame. If he wasn't claiming he created 22 million strike that 3 million jobs then he might get some slack for the other bad stuff that was clearly an overhang from the (wonderful) Bush years. It is clear that either he or the next president will preside over something pretty spectacular (-ly bad). If Ron Paul himself were would still happen. In my opinion this would be a great time to start to share both credit and blame because whoever tries to sound like they are in charge may find that a dangerous place to be very soon.

dirtbagger's picture

I fault Obama big time on 2 issues -

1) The US financial system is completely disfunctional.  He had the opportunity to begin reigning in the banks early in his administration.  He could have brought a guy like Black on board and established a RTC or similar organization.  Instead he brought in the Clinton economic retreads with more of the extend - pretend economic policy. 

2) Obama's health debate/bill was a big dog and pony show.  Backroom deals had been made far in advance with big pharmaceuticals and the health insurance industry.  There was never going to be a single payer/public option, allowance of drug reimportation, or reform of the trillion dollar give away to Drug Companies in Part D Medicare.   His insincerity and duplicity during the Health Care Debate told you everything one needed to know about Obama.

Maybe we are all naive.  Perhaps the first briefing the President receives is with the CIA, NSA, and FBI.  A room full of middle aged men all in navy blue suits, red ties, and flag pins on the lapels.  With background music blaring, they quietly whisper in the Presidents ear -  don't rock the boat - remember what happened to JFK.

GeorgeHayduke's picture

Dead on post dirtbagger.

The #1 job of any president in office is to maintain the wealth, power and influence of the wealthy, powerful and influential. That description also covers jobs #2 to #10,000. After that, the sheep might get a bone or two thrown their way, but never, ever, NEVER at the expense, in any way, to the wealthy, powerful and influential.

I've tried to explain this to people, but they insist on sticking to their red/blue mentality because it's easier to hate than to learn things that are contrary to your own biases and prejudices. Obama has been Bush's 3rd term. I can't understand why anyone who supported Bush would now hate Obama. Policy-wise, he's the same old, same old.

Hobbleknee's picture

Yes, I would hate McCain that much.

Finite Supply's picture

Its impossible to understand libery and the brutal perfection of true free markets and not hate Obama. If that's over your head, you shouldnt need anything more than this 1 simple reason to hate and fear him: Timmy Geithner.

Finite Supply's picture

Ill add this is no different to GB or GWB... but you must marvel in awe at the rate at which the O-man has been able to eff things up... its so bad, part of me almost wants another 4 years to expedite the final collapse. At least we'll have a chance at a Randesque style reset at the end of it.

I should be working's picture

The plebeians of our republic were fooled into believing it matters who lives at 1600 Pennsylvania ave. They are angry that they were fooled into thinking they have a chance, when clearly they do not.

Whoever occupies that esteemed office only does so via the largesse of big business contributions. The American people were In the denial stage of their Kubler-Ross cycle of grief. They are now in their anger phase.

Pants McPants's picture

I think you need to read more and comment less.  MOST folks here - although that number has diminished over the last few months - understand the false choice that is the red/blue charade.....

Pizza man's picture

and last I looked he had 2 years of super majority in the senate and owned the house. He shoved O-care, Dudd-Frankenstein and huge spending down our throats all on party line. His party line. That's not biz as usual.

Sure, it's more of the same, by about 50X more.

Chuck Walla's picture

Dear Ratso,

Has ZH finally hit the board at Media Matters?  Will Georgi Soros go all pissy and direct his billions here to wipe it out?Go back to pulling the wings off flies, your anger is misplaced. Obama is the engineer of this debacle. So go curse the OMB, they let slip some truth recently.


Your pal,

Buck Farack

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

What is America if not a concept?  I don't see America anywhere, do you?