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Art Cashin On Friday The 13th And Wall Street

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Art Cashin goes through the history of Friday the 13th on Wall Street, and tells us it has a slight upward bias, being "up 55% to 60% of the time." Just don't tell that to Europe today, and especially Spain and Italian banks, both of which are getting monkeyhammered at this moment.

From UBS Financial Markets

Of Friday The Thirteenth And The Last Official “Hat Day” - It’s Friday the 13th and all of the negative myths surrounding it pop up. Friday the 13th actually has a mild upward bias in stock market history. It’s up 55% to 60% of the time.

We think the negative myth may be based on a novel published back around 1910. It told of a plot by an evil stock trader (ain’t they all) to crash the market on Friday the 13th.

By a numerical oddity, the 13th of the month falls on a Friday more than any other day. In the last 400 years, we have had 688 Friday the Thirteenths.

This year is especially symmetrical. Today is the second of three Friday 13ths. There was January 13; today and July 13th. Those dates are exactly 13 weeks apart.

One further note on Friday the 13th. Triskaidekaphobia is actually fear of the number 13. Fear of Friday the 13th is actually Friggatriskaidekaphobia but that sounds like something that would cause your mom to put a bar of Lifebuoy in your mouth. So, Dr. Donald Dossey coined the term paraskevidekatriaphobia. He says that by the time you manage to pronounce it, your phobia’s gone.

Prior to 1988, floor brokers used to have fun with the myth by declaring Friday the 13th “Hat Day”. Brokers would don silly and bizarre headgear, pretending to ward off the evil spirits.

The last official “Hat Day” occurred in 1987. It was on Friday, November 13th, to be exact. A few weeks earlier on Monday, October 19th, U.S. stock markets had suffered their worst selloff in history. The Dow fell 20% in one day. That would be the equivalent of a 2,500 point selloff today. The ’87 crash was far, far worse than the ’29 crash on a percentage basis. As that day wore on and prices continued to fall and fall, the floor took on a kind of surreal atmosphere, almost like a dream sequence in a movie. You bargained and fought for good prices but there was a sense that this was unreal – that this couldn’t really be happening.

In the days and weeks that followed the crash, traders and others sorted through the financial carnage, sometimes with disastrous results. A lost ticket might be a career ender. A misread price could produce a loss that could cost you the price of a small house or certainly a very expensive auto. Several friends would hug and cry and say goodbye – the only valuable they still owned were their memories.

By the end of the first week in November, after some contested rulings were appealed, the floor pretty well knew who had survived. That’s when it was suggested that Hat Day should be a kind of “Survivors Ball”. The visitor’s gallery had been closed after the crash to avoid distractions while we sorted through the financial debris. We prevailed upon the PR department to cancel press passes for the day. On Hat Day, it would be just us – the survivors – in the place where we had been challenged and survived.

The opening bell set the stage. On to the podium strode the NYSE Chairman, the Vice-Chairman and the President. All three were decked out in over-sized sombreros, the kind seen in “The Three Amigos”. On the floor before them scurried brokers and clerks wearing top hats and helmets and lady’s bonnets and caps that had ducks or dogs growing out of them. It was perfectly ridiculous and just the right antidote to weeks of worry, fear and loss of comrades. Smiles spread spontaneously and soon did laughter. Trading continued, of course. Trades were made, face to face, as they had been for over 100 years. Based just on your word – no exchange of contracts, no lawyer, no accountant, no notary – just your word is your bond.

The atmosphere continued to brighten. Spontaneous “parades” broke out. Particularly unusual or ugly head gear might bring cheers or whistles. Hats were swapped to see who looked sillier in what. The Survivors Ball was in full swing and having all the desired therapeutic effect.

But, it turned out, not everyone present was a survivor. An unaffiliated reporter, or stringer, had been admitted to the floor. He had asked permission to interview a certain specialist who had made such a good market in his stocks during the crash that he put himself and his firm out of business. Late in the trading day on October 19th he received a call from his banker that he had used up every penny of his assets trying to stem the plunge of his assigned stocks including a prominent Dow name. The specialist, a noted Marine veteran, was forced to sell his firm that very evening. (Ironically, a few month’s later, it was discovered that the bank had miscalculated. The sale had not been necessary.)

At any rate, the stringer stood at the specialist post in the Blue Room (one of the three trading rooms at the time). He interviewed the specialist about the crash and took lots of notes. He also asked lots of questions about the hats and the light-hearted shenanigans going on about him.

A few months later, perhaps looking for another story to sell, he sent an article about that day to a west coast newspaper. They published it under a title something like “The Fat Cats in the Hats”. It was not complimentary.

Several months after that it may have been resold to an east coast newspaper. They published it in their Sunday magazine section. The title was changed but the tone remained the same. By now virtually no one still remembered that President Reagan had written a note to the men and women on the floor of the NYSE, thanking them for their courage and dedication during the crash. But with the letter and even the crash now just a memory, no one would understand the need for a Survivor’s Ball. Without that, the article just made the floor look silly.

That was the last “Hat Day” on the NYSE.

Without “Hat Day”, there were occasional “bumps”. On Friday, October 19th in 1989, the attempted leveraged buyout of United Airlines (UAL) suddenly collapsed and the Dow plunged 190 points (a bit more than 1000 points, today). It was a scare but not enough to reinstate a rather harmless and fun tradition.

 


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Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Bahamas
Bahamas's picture

Jason bitches

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Europe is circling down the debt toilet bowl, to be very shortly followed by the rest of us.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

We are inside of the event horizon.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

The specialist, a noted Marine veteran, was forced to sell his firm that very evening. (Ironically, a few month’s later, it was discovered that the bank had miscalculated. The sale had not been necessary.)

The specialist, a noted Marine veteran, was forced to sell his firm that very evening. (Conveniently, a few month’s later, it was discovered that the bank had miscalculated. The sale had not been necessary.)

Fixed it for ya'!

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:51 | Link to Comment johnu1978
johnu1978's picture

The whole U.S. economic system should collapse, the only reason it hasn't is because of manipulation by the Federal Reserve and the government. The best thing people can do at this point is learn primitive skills, one of the few things that can't be repossessed from us is knowledge! Check out this site when you have a chance: http://www.heartrootnatureconnection.com you'll be glad you did. Enjoy, John

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Every day is Ass Hat day in the racket known as the market.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

It's Baaaaaaphomet's playground, he owns the glitchez and the richez, bitchez!

what do you expect?

Of course it has an upward bias.

Upyours Bias, FTW!!!!

ori

/unedited-stream-of-consciousness/

 

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Long - hockey masks and large bladed farm tools.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

I don't understand - is Art Cashin saying that this sea of red is an illusion because the historical facts point to an 'up day'?

 

Why are we even watching this joke of a market - it will stay red until someone announces QE - we've all seen this movie before.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'By krackey, I remember the Friday the 13th in 1929 we all had our bowler hats on in tradition and the buggy whip stocks crashed, but the flapper girls came out on the trading floor and we had a real hootenanny!'

Thanks, Art.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Trades were made, face to face, as they had been for over 100 years.

Bring back the steenth.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All I need to know is if Friday 13th is bullish for QE or not.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Bullshit futures are up SD1.

Ex-Creta ad Glorium!

ori

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment docmac324
docmac324's picture

Every time I open up ZH, I see "Art Cashin".  Does anyone else contribute to ZH besides Art and TD?

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Well Art those were different days. Now that Skynet is alive you all are being replaced with robots and algorithms. Time to get out while the getting is good.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment trilliontroll
trilliontroll's picture

Just don't tell that to Europe today, and especially Spain and Italian banks, both of which are getting monkeyhammered at this moment.

So as I said before : we need a 

10 000 000 000 000 € LTRO !

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:59 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"..especially Spain and Italian banks, both of which are getting monkeyhammered at this moment."

surely you mean private investors have taken a rational considered decision to re-assess risk profiles and transfer funds from certain assets to more equitable strategic placements in a more promising sector... yes?

..or get the fuck out before the monkies in the EU ban selling kamakazi banking shares ..ahem!

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 13:11 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"monkey hammered"

LOL

Those poor banks, whatever could be wrong there? (/sarc).

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 13:26 | Link to Comment SteveGennisonBa...
SteveGennisonBallWasher's picture

could have also used "clown-stomped"

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Well, fuck all you naysayers - I enjoy Art's personal reminisences and stories of the market.

And he is well aware that it is a far different market then when you could look a fellow trader in the eye and his word was his bond.

How the hell you look a HFT that just put in 10K bids the last second in the eye, or anywhere else?

How the hell do you put a funny hat on a computer, co-located next to the exchange computer?

They all should be given funny hats, with a small but adequate charge of C4 inside...

Then, maybe, humans could get the martket back and there could be real price discovery, and fundamentals would mean something.

But I too, am just an old fart like Art, kind of missing the days when humans traded even with each other.

 

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 15:37 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

There, is this better?

Look, I'm wearing a hat.

My word is my bond, honest.

Would this face lie?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/79008263@N05/7074511733/in/photostream

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