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Art Cashin Issues His Latest Warning On Egypt

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Last week, when we discussed the recent ominous gas deal cancellation between Egypt and Israel we warned that the May Egyptian presidential election is the one that nobody is concerned about, yet should be far more prominent on everyone's radar, especially in the aftermath of not only the recent deterioration of Egypt-Israel relations, but also the withdrawal of the Arabian ambassador from Cairo. Art Cashin is one person who has been following this underreported hotbed of geopolitical tensions and has just issued his third warning of what he calls another "nose to nose" in the middle east. Issue is this particular nose has all the leverage courtesy of a little canal that has a huge impact on the most important asset price in the world.

From UBS Financial Services

Egypt Bears Watching Closely - Bob Hardy’s excellent GeoStrat site had a couple of keen insights on Egypt. (We hear the site is getting popular among the hedgies.) Bob did a thorough analysis of the rather confusing electoral setup. Here’s a small segment:

The Generals that run SCAF, clearly want the new President to be a former military man as has been the case since the 1950s, and Shafiq is the only candidate that now qualifies, and is likely their first choice.

 

The 13 candidates have several things in common, they are all in their 60s and 70s and none represents the first choice of their supporters. Some 40% of voters remain undecided according to recent polls, but most agree that there are four frontrunners. Amr Moussa and Ahmad Shafiq are competing for the votes of the secularists and those that want to bring law and order back to the country. The Islamists will have to choose between Abdel Aboul-Foutouh who was tossed out of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) last summer for breaking its prohibition, then in place, for a member to run for President; and Muhammad Mursi, a member of the MB's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) who entered the race as a backup to Khairat al-Shater, the FJP's preferred choice, after it broke its promise not to run a Presidential candidate. Al-Shater was disqualified because of his criminal record.

 

The voters seem to be growing wary of the MB, who have done nothing to solve the country's economic problems, and is seen as trying to seize total political power so that Egypt can become an Islamic state under its control. Just because the Islamists dominated the Parliamentary elections winning 65% of the vote, does not mean that they will be able to stage a repeat performance in the Presidential vote. The Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies issued a report last week that said that 45% of those who had voted for FJP candidates for Parliament would not do so again. This report must be taken with a grain of salt because Al Ahram is a government sponsored think tank, however; the large portion of undecided voters indicates that there is a lot of truth in its findings.

 

What most observers of the Arab Spring have missed is that it was all about "the economy stupid" in the beginning, before it morphed into a demand for political rights.

Hardy thinks the Generals have been effective so far in splitting the Islamist vote, raising hopes for a secular President (conveniently safe for the Generals). If that looks likely, they may steer the constitution (still in process) to a strong president/weak parliament model.

Bob also has a good analysis on the emerging split between Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The Saudis have closed all their consulates in Egypt and have recalled their ambassador. Just what we need - another nose to nose in the Middle East.

 

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Tue, 05/01/2012 - 09:46 | 2387910 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

9:45am mining company smash down.

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 09:49 | 2387921 Robot Trader's ...
Robot Trader's brother's picture

Blythe engineer it..?? 

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 09:52 | 2387926 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I frankly dont give a damn my dear.

Any Nation that promotes Marital Narcolepsy as matter of State Rule deserves a little War.

The House of Saud has already closed the Embassy and other things are going on we don't hear about.

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 10:26 | 2388033 NooooB
NooooB's picture

WTF is "Marital Narcolepsy"??!!

I for one am FOR suddenly and repeatedly falling asleep on ones spouse sir!

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 10:36 | 2388071 NooooB
NooooB's picture

New York Mag~

"Though it made for a good set-up to Dangerfield-esque jokes about bad sex lives, the Egyptian necrophilia story that zoomed around the Internet yesterday is probably not true. We say probably because even the doubters have been unable to provide conclusive evidence yet. But they — the Christian Science Monitor's Dan Murphy and readers of Andrew Sullivan's blog, for example — point out that the story is entirely predicated on an opinion column written by a loyalist of Hosni Mubarak who presumably has a motive to embarrass the Islamists who have taken control of Parliament in the wake of Mubarak's downfall."

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 13:08 | 2388498 Cyrano de Bivouac
Cyrano de Bivouac's picture

I think you mean necrophilia-that would be something else for a country  to promote both narcolepsy and necrophilia.

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 09:54 | 2387930 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Obama is tight with the Brotherhood, no problems.

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 09:57 | 2387931 Boeing Boy
Boeing Boy's picture

Mate of mine just back from Egypt, two new laws just passed.

 

1.  legal age of marriage has been reduced to 14.

2.  Now legal to have sex with your wife's corpse up to 5 hours after her death.

Hmmm,  Houston we have a problem...

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 11:30 | 2388273 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

2. Must be one hell of a good looking wife. Wish I had one that nice. She already is little better than a corpse.

Just kidding!  With my attitude is it any wonder I am single?

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 11:42 | 2388335 Boeing Boy
Boeing Boy's picture

I apologose, I was one hour out;

 

the Muslim fanatics now running the country are enacting a new “farewell intercourse law,” which allows husbands to have sex with their dead wives up to six hours after their deaths

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 11:58 | 2388390 OldE_Ant
OldE_Ant's picture

lol.   That's just to make sure the wife isn't dead yet.   I wonder if they have a provision for allowing family members to watch.

No wonder why the camels are so dang ornery, they are just plain scared and raw.  And no wonder why they landed where there is so much oil.   Gotta have 'lubrication to screw anything with a hole even if the flies are coming out.'!

Man talk about a world full of pretty seriously sick people.   But hey, look on the bright side better the guy do his dead wife than his not so dead daughter(s) in the rear (so she stays a virgin).

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 10:01 | 2387946 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Inflation?  Civil unrest?  Violence?  Poverty?

Here is a vignette of one successful and positive response to the above problems in Egypt.

Rooftop Hydroponic gardens in Egypt

I know it could NEVER happen where you live.  But if it did, what would you do?

 

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 10:30 | 2388025 moonshadow
moonshadow's picture

that article is filled with misrepresentations. nice thot and keep it up but would hafta happen on a Huge scale to be an impact on air, economy etc. idk what the writer's agenda was...but it's just a couple guys growing veggies on their roof. tons of people could do that- on balconies, decks, etc. lettuce isnt the solution nearly as much as changing islamic thought- like a reformation in that religion please!!! nothing to see here...

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 10:31 | 2388054 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

...tons of people could do that- on balconies, decks, etc.

Glad you think so, but the point is they do so.

Mind the gap.

Wed, 05/02/2012 - 00:11 | 2390266 moonshadow
moonshadow's picture

it's simple. i do it. lots of people do it. try it. but it's not gona change the faulty islamic mindset one whit. and that's what the article was implying. it's still full of mistakes. they dont even know how to spell perlite

 

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 10:06 | 2387970 goldinpenguin
goldinpenguin's picture

I guess we shouldn't have been so quick to pull the rug out from underneath Mubarek. He was no angel but neither are these candidates.

 

Not sure if mainstream Egyptians are manifesting animosity towards jews and christians or if they're just trying to shake down Uncle Sam for more $$$. It will be a win/win for Egypt and Israel who will get matching increase.

 

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 10:07 | 2387971 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

There is talk in Egypt of the army having gasoline trucks dump gasoline on the roadsides rather than take it to gasoline stations.  The MB has control of Parliament and the Army is engineering blame for the gasoline shortage to point at the MB.

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 12:57 | 2388566 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

That would be a mistake; dumping the gasoline.

Then and again we hear of those who are immolated alive in dozens as they tried to steal fuel in the past.

Thanks to those who offered corrections to my earlier posts. I am still riled about this subject. It's a'int right.

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 10:10 | 2387976 goldinpenguin
goldinpenguin's picture

Fair is fair, women will be allowed to have sex with dead hubbies too. new meaning to rigor mortis!

Egypt’s new Islamist-dominated parliament is preparing to introduce a controversial law that would allow husbands to have sex with their deceased wives up to six hours after death. Known as the "farewell Intercourse" law, the measure is being championed as part of a raft of reforms 

introduced by the parliament that will also see the minimum age of marriage lowered to 14 for girls.

 

Egypt’s National Council for Women is campaigning against the changes, saying that ‘marginalising and undermining the status of women would negatively affect the country’s human development'.

Dr Mervat al-Talawi, head of the NCW, wrote to the Egyptian People’s assembly speaker Dr Saad al-Katatni addressing her concerns.

Egyptian journalist Amro Abdul Samea reported in the al Ahram newspaper that Talawi complained about the legislations, which are being introduced under ‘alleged religious interpretations’.
 
The subject of a husband having sex with his dead wife arose in May 2011 when Moroccan cleric Zamzami Abdul Bari said marriage remains valid even after death.

He also said that women have the right to have sex with her dead husband, alarabiya.net reported.

It seems the topic, which has sparked outrage, has now been picked up on by Egypt’s politicians.

TV anchor Jaber al Qarmouty slammed the notion of letting a husband have sex with his wife after her death under the so-called ‘Farewell Intercourse’ draft law.

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 10:16 | 2387977 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

"The spokesperson said the violence had led to the suspension of diplomatic and consular services for Egyptian workers and Muslim pilgrims headed for Islam's holiest sites, located in western Saudi Arabia.

On Tuesday, hundreds of Egyptians protested outside the embassy demanding the release of an Egyptian human rights activist held by Saudi authorities who claim he possessed banned drugs.

The protesters chanted slogans against the Saudi regime as they called for the "immediate" release of Ahmed Mohammed al-Gizawi, who was arrested on arrival at Jeddah airport on April 17.

The Arabic Network for Human Rights Information, an Egyptian organisation, said Gizawi was detained following a sentence of one year in prison and 20 lashes delivered against him in absentia for criticism of the Saudi government."

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/04/2012428145141344663.html

The House of Saud and the Muslim Brotherhood have always had a "interesting" relationship.....

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 10:11 | 2387978 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Where is the discussion of the IMF loan.Then comes the "election." Then comes the upstream Nile water wars.

Moussa = ElBaradei. He was the head of the AL that rubber stamped Libya op.

Egypt’s election committee confirmed on Thursday that Hosni Mubarak’s last prime minister would run in a presidential election, reversing its decision to eject him over a law drawn up by Islamists. “After listening to Shafiq’s appeal, the committee decided to halt the decision to exclude him from the presidential race,” Farouk Soltan, the head of the election committee, told a news conference to announce the final list of candidates, listing Ahmed Shafiq among the 13 contenders. Shafiq, a general and former civil aviation minister, had been named premier in the final days of Mubarak’s three-decade rule last year as he battled an 18-day popular uprising. He is seen as a strong contender to win Egypt’s presidential elections set for May 23-24, with a run-off scheduled in June. His main rivals include two Islamists, Mohamed Mursi and Abdel Moneim Abol Fotouh, and the former head of the Arab League, Amr Moussa.

Redux of the Yemen election Which by the way now have Saleh son challenging the GCC/US backed technocrat who himself was Saleh deputy

Slog some insights on the Greek election polls and who is doing them...

http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/05/01/exclusive-new-poll-sees-anti-troi...

 

 

 

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 10:15 | 2387988 AchtungAffen
AchtungAffen's picture

Typical. Once there's democracy in oppressed countries, and these have the temerity to elect someone the US doesn't like; and BOOM: flurry of "intelligence reports" siding towards the military juntas and their supporters.

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 12:59 | 2388570 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Egypt has not been happy.

Hell it must be the Sun or something.... No body is happy.

And they still need to walk the Nile and check a spot each year to see if there will be adequate water for all.

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 10:28 | 2388005 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Creating a Islamic Alternative Universe is not going so well !  Their only success is infilitrating and corrupting Christian societies ! Egypt is SOOOO dependent on others ! They cut off their one stupid export....natural gas....except for dates and camel dung ! Let the cesspool repose and ferment....burn off any excess gas !    Monedas   1929    Comedy Jihad Muslim Madness   PS  Oh yes....they are good at killing Coptic christians....their last remnant of cultural diversity ? Xenophobic camel humpers !

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 10:36 | 2388076 New American Re...
New American Revolution's picture

Can't see the forest for the trees.   It's a REVOLUTION.   Egypt is leaving its second stage and entering its third stage, which is when the shit hits the wall.   They are about to join Libya and Syria, and I'm wondering how long it will take to spread, and that will be answered by the cost of food.   Will the central banksta's run up prices or not?   Inquiring minds want to know.   I think they will because they have to in order to keep the accelerating cycle of debt going by round robin'ing each major central banks loosening.   Now it's Japan's turn with some help from their friends, the Chinese.    But it will soon be the LTRO II, or is it III?   Heck, who cares, but certainly the FED will help support them.   Key is the G8 at Camp David where secrets can be kept.   Want to stop it all in its tracks and take over Congress in November?   Go to www.nar2012.com, you can learn about revolutions there too.   It will be laid out with George Noory, Monday the 8th, at 10 pm to 11 pm (PST).

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 10:37 | 2388078 onceinalifetime
onceinalifetime's picture

From the end of Mubarak regime till now, Egypt gained more than 1 million in population while devastating their source of foreign currency from tourism and gas selling to Israel.
I guess that 2013 will be the year when starvation hit Egypt.

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 11:04 | 2388170 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

please egypt starve, billions in aid from USA will prop  them up, after all ben prints state dept grants aid..for a broke country seems spending is never a problem..R Paul we need you.

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 11:23 | 2388233 divide_by_zero
divide_by_zero's picture

Why just last night on PBS (Progressive Broadcast System) 2 progressive stooges from WaPo and the New American Policy Institute (which laughably claims non-partisanship) assuring the sheep that the MB were good guys, competition to Al Qaida even.

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 11:54 | 2388381 surfsup
surfsup's picture

Like all such operatives, they are great at breaking things down but are clueless as to how to constructively build them back up...   

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 13:00 | 2388571 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Well, getting 300 million subjects to abide by the wishes and will of 535 is a example as well. /sarc

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 13:16 | 2388606 mailll
mailll's picture

Egyptian presidential candidate Amr Mousa says the camp david accord signed between Egypt and Israel in 1978 are dead and buried.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/238970.html

The Muslim brotherhood will unite the whole middle east against Israel.  Result: WW3.  With China, Russia, Iran and the rest of the middle east on one side, The US, its allies, and Israel on the other.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!