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Art Cashin On Obama's Reelection Tactic: Pleading For A Spanish Bailout

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"Who knew that the 24th electoral district in Chicago actually sits in Northwest Madrid?" That is how Art Cashin concludes his tangent into the president's pre-election tactics, which now apparently involve begging heads of sovereigns to accept bailouts from other sovereigns (coughgermanycough) just to boost one's reelection chances. Why? Because the one thing that could send the S&P ripping higher, however briefly, is what we have been discussing for the past week: namely the market finally getting the paradoxical catalyst that the market has already priced in - Spain admitting it is broke. And why would Obama be focused on a rising S&P, fiscal cliff after the election notwithstanding? The chart below should explain it.

Anyway, here's Art via UBS:

Good Afternoon Sir! I'm Calling About The Election – More than a few eyebrows were raised by a single headline that flashed by sometime around mid-day. The headline read something like:

 

"President speaks by phone with Spain's Rajoy"

 

Traders saw that as a president very concerned that Europe holds the key to his re-election. Here, courtesy of Politico's Morning Money is the White House release on the topic:

 

President Obama spoke with Spain's President Mariano Rajoy earlier today as part of his ongoing discussions with European leaders about the eurozone economy. President Obama acknowledged the difficult challenges that the Spanish people are facing, and reiterated his support for President Rajoy's efforts to get Spain's economy back on track.

 

Traders were sure the conversation was much more animated than that. It was a plea/demand that Rajoy formally request a bailout lest the rescue effort stumble and a new financial crisis erupts and ends President Obama's chances.

 

Who knew that the 24th electoral district in Chicago actually sits in Northwest Madrid.

 

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Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:32 | 2684306 Meesohaawnee
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obama to spain. "uh i can only order ben to prop this fraud much longer. people are catching on"

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:33 | 2684307 malikai
malikai's picture

Makes perfect sense. No controversial QE and it will send the markets soaring so people will be rich again.

Let reality come after the election.

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:33 | 2684309 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

Please shoot yourself in the head, I need to buy a new car...is this the whole point, or did I get it wrong???

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:37 | 2684321 youngman
youngman's picture

Was he holding his baseball bat..or this time a 9 iron..or maybe a tennis racket?????

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:38 | 2684325 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

I hear a "Death Rattle" for the old guard like Cashin.

 

Way too old to be able to keep up with HFT dominated markets, momentum junkies, and F12 punching monkeys.

Maybe he should swill down a couple of cans of Red Bull each morning so he can keep up with the young ones.

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:50 | 2684352 bullet
bullet's picture

robo...

Art has more trading acumen in the tip of his dick than you...

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:51 | 2684357 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

.......Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thine own
Or of thine friend's were.
Each man's death diminishes me,
For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:40 | 2684328 magpie
magpie's picture

I just love how GS wants to ramp up the market and get O reelected...while risking a bond and dollar crash.

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:52 | 2684362 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Get O re-elected, crash the dollar, & repeal the 22nd Amendment... If you see no possibility whatsoever of it happening, you prolly ain't lookin'...

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:58 | 2684379 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Stop whining you Muppets......or we'll give you something to whine about.

 

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 10:30 | 2684528 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

I've dog like been loyal to fellow muppets but.......a Muppet has to eat, you know? So, um, I'll take a Muppet camp capo job. There's going to be more GS house night openings as like lemmings at a cliff the muppets will for the good of finance have to be 'managed'.

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:58 | 2684380 jeff314
jeff314's picture

yep you will have a king in the USA very soon....

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 11:17 | 2684730 old naughty
old naughty's picture

will he be the cloth-ed kind?
Or...

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 11:03 | 2684672 lostintheflood
lostintheflood's picture

repeal the 22nd Amendment

 

why repeal anything?  just declare it invalid due to terrists or something.

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:43 | 2684332 Curt W
Curt W's picture

We can adjust and manipulate US numbers to make it look all rosey, here, let me show you how it is done.

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:43 | 2684333 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

"Look.. I am under orders to prop up the banking cartel. And to do that the Euro must survive. If it doesn't, we are going to need another world war so we can rebuild the debt that the bankers need to live in a lifestyle they are accustomed to.... "

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:45 | 2684337 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

A friend told me yesterday that she saw a documentary on how American debt is too large (I gasped), and how the only way to make it go away is to inflate the dollar (double gasp).

I loved their conclusion: buy stocks, housing and Chinese Yen to protect yourself.

I suggested that perhaps gold could be one of the choices. She tilted her head and looked at me funny, like "what in the world are you talking about?". The conversation was over and we continued to discuss our vacation plans.

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 10:15 | 2684445 notbot
notbot's picture

High quality advice...where can I find this elusive Chinese "Yen"?  

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 14:17 | 2685305 onelight
onelight's picture

+1 -- funny -- thanks

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 11:28 | 2684787 Thisson
Thisson's picture

Weimar proved that stocks don't work well in high inflation.  Of course, they didn't have LEAPS (options) back then. 

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:47 | 2684342 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Bring Dow 15K and all its glory!  It will be the "biggest short" rather than Michael Burry's Big Short

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:47 | 2684343 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Romney's tactic is to get the joos to rig the election.

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:47 | 2684344 The Axe
The Axe's picture

He does not even did it market continues its summer melt up

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 10:23 | 2684489 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

Are you trying to say obama did not do it?  

Melt Up is Marxist  (I know that confuses Socialists) and obama's a Marxist as is ben

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/747801-will-qe3-be-announced-in-august

 

I completely believe obama did that but I don't believe it will work so we will see QE just in time for the election.

 

 

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 09:52 | 2684360 vinu02
vinu02's picture

Obam has completed his task of keeping market above 13k http://www.freefdawatchlist.com/2012/08/dow-s-and-nasdaq-expected-to-ope...

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 10:14 | 2684440 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Soaring gas prices will also add to his problems:

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CLG13.NYM&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

 

misery index (revised?) = inflation + unemployment + gas prices

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 10:31 | 2684534 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Obama knows that markets will dictate whether he gets re-elected or not.  Markets stay up, Obama has a chance at re-election.   Markets collapse, Obama is out.

 

This weekly goes back to 2004 - GWB's relection.  Think of the markets in 1980 and what happened to Jimmy Carter.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/index/free/weekly/

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 11:01 | 2684664 lostintheflood
lostintheflood's picture

This weekly goes back to 2004 - GWB's relection.

 

gwb was not re-elected.  first, he was appointed.  then he was elected.

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 10:35 | 2684546 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

I'll never forget Art's comment on "The Second Mouse Gets The Cheese."

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 10:51 | 2684621 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

All Obama needs Europe to do is stall for 3 months.

In the end, though, you can tell the oligarch prefer Obama because, even though he may cower to some populist things, he won't put them in jail or make major changes to business as usual.  Plus, the American populace will lose respect for Romeny 2 years within the Presidency, making the situation for TPTB much harder to handle.

SO, DOW to 15K, S&P to 1500 until November 2nd.....then watch the thing PLUNGE.....

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 11:43 | 2684855 old naughty
old naughty's picture

All these are men, eh muppets, talking.

The power has alternate plan...

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 11:19 | 2684737 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

It looks like the stock market has a lot to do with the presidential race. At least it does for the souls who use Intrade. The calculus of presidential elections is simple. If the economy is doing relatively well at the time of the election, then the incumbent usually wins. 

The economy is plagued with issues including weak demand and the looming threat of eurogeddon. Therefore, the president will deploy a two front strategy. On one front, he will continue behind-the-scenes politicking of the Fed for more stimulus. While monetary policy only affects our economy in the short-term, that's exactly what is needed, a short-term boost that QE can provide. If this policy is announced at the next Fed meeting, the effects will easily carry us to the election.

The other front is in Europe. A sovereign debt crash will kill American markets and lessen the president's chances for reelection; hence, he will continue to push Europe towards bailouts. On one side, he needs to get Spain to request help and on the other side he needs to convince Germany to allow the ECB to crank up the magic money machine to buy sovereign debt.

I see him accomplishing these political tasks. He will win a second term, and we will all be paying for these foolhardy interventions long beyond it. 

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/

Tue, 08/07/2012 - 13:11 | 2685132 onelight
onelight's picture

Robo...dude...you are funny sometimes, truly humorous even, but this was a jackass comment.

Cashin has forgotten more than we have learned, if he even has forgotten anything, and the man does not have to keep up with the algos, that's for the young guys.

Cashin is still there with the astute, forest for trees view, and I don't care what he may not care to notice about the algo-stuff, which he can best read about on ZH, as we all do. 

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