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Art Cashin On Ostrich Rallies, ATM Lines And MOC Bluffs
You saw it all unfold here blow by blow yesterday. Now Art Cashin gives the post-mortem.
Source: UBS Financial Markets
Greek ATM Lines And Expiration Bluffing Send Stocks South – Tuesday's trading turned strange even before the market had opened in New York.
An oversold condition and decent data at 8:30 had U.S. futures bubbling on the upside early on.
Suddenly, around 9:00 EDT, lightening seemed to strike. Futures tanked and European markets went into a freefall.
"What just happened" was the cry that echoed across the floor.
The trigger was the announcement that the Greek President was disbanding the last effort to form a coalition government.
Media pundits wondered what was the surprise. Wasn't this expected?
The answer was – yes it was expected but now it was a fact. The power to resolve had shifted from a roomful of professionals to the streets of Athens. Compromise was no longer a possibility.
The sense of hopelessness was underscored by rather vicious selling in the Greek bank stocks.
U.S. stocks tried to resist and opened mixed but wary.
For the balance of the morning, the bulls tried to mount a rally off the oversold condition, produced by days of selling.
After Europe closed at 11:30, U.S. stocks mounted a bit of an ostrich rally. (If I can't see it any more, it can't hurt me.)
The ostrich rally took them to what would be the day's highs shortly after noon. Then the ATM rumors began.
The rumormongers and several blog sites claimed that Tuesday evening in Athens, long lines were forming at various bank ATM machines. Soon the blogs were relaying pictures of the lines.
The concern was that this might be the spark or trigger of the feared run on the banks that would signal the final inning of the Euro exit.
At first the ATM stories circulated slowly – more a topic of conversation than a prod to market action.
As it spread over the next two hours, the reaction was more buyers walking away, rather than panicky selling.
That all changed around 2:30. The ATM rumors combined with reports of large bank withdrawals on Monday. Selling began to accelerate.
At almost the same time, a lot of market on close (MOC) sell orders began to show up. In an Expiration week, there are often large MOC flows. The fact that they were predominately sells, added to the pressure on the market. If you thought there'd be heavy selling as the bell was ringing, why not sell now at likely higher prices.
That perception seemed to stimulate the selling even more. The volume began to swell.
Then at 3:30, the bluff was revealed. Suddenly, a string of buy side MOCs showed up. On balance, the bell would now see mild buyers, not sellers. That revelation reversed gears with buyers helping to cut losses a bit.
Was the shift in MOCs a set-up? Was it a trading ploy? We can't tell for sure but it sure was an odd coincidence.
The late flurry of selling in the final 90 minutes swelled volume to the top end of projections. Traders wondered off to marinate and wonder what the ATM story boded for Wednesday morning.
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ATMs........Skynet's Trojan horses.
the ATM bankrun thing just hit MSNBC (siting a ZH twitter message):http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/16/11729795-greeks-withdraw...
it is interesting that 'bank runs' (and hyperinflation) are more of a crowd-psychology phenomenon than an economic one.
"bank run" ... nothing strikes fear into the hearts of men like those two words ...
How about "Rectal Exam?"
I stand corrected
I'm pregnant.
Now I stand corrected!
Stand down....Erectile Dysfunction
Get the blue pill and you'll stand erected.
I was just about to post the same link. That nbc story comes linked from drudgereport.com, top of the center column.
It's funny, I had imagined for a long time that a collapse meant nearly instantaneous financial armegeddon. It is now clear it can be as slow as molases when the entire word tries to stall the inevitable. This has been going on for two years. I'm ready to see closure on Greece, and the next chapter begin.
It's like the quote about how bankruptcy happens: slowly at first, then suddenly. Fear is building slowly, but when panic hits, it will seem to come out of nowhere.
the market is totaly controled what panic. move along.
The Long Emergency
mary poppins bank run:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6DGs3qjRwQ
The rally is likely to last 4 weeks, until June 17 when the Greeks reject the bailout of foreign banks again.
"the rally is likely to last ..." ... ? ... what rally? ... we were down yesterday and up a whopping 24 points on the DOW at 9:40am this morning.
Don't be surprised at another short squeeze type rally. I haven't bugged out of my bear positions yet but suspect those 24 pts will get some legs. Weekends have been hell on the bulls recently so I would want to miss out on that.
The US Dollar rally? Off of Euro weakness? Europe is driving all the markets. I wonder if the dollar strength will push silver below the support level of $26/oz? At some point liquidity will probably be thrown into the system...metals will resume their upward march.
I think the rally is already over.
Three days ago (last Friday) I went 70% money markets and 30% dividend stocks. But I doubles my puts so I am perking along making money in a down market. I just don't understand those who trade without hedging in this environment. The real killer of markets is uncertainty, a quality that seems to be spreading like a virus.
To a person, not a single financial planner even suggests improvement as long as Obama is still in office. Some wag joked that LBJ had a war on Poverty, Clinton a war on drugs, Bush a war on terror and Obama a War on Business. LOL
We trade without hedges for the same reason Las Vegas exists. Hedges stop your losses but they also limit your gains, severely. Trading without hedges is not investing, it's speculation or gambling and has different motivations. Don't do this with money you can't afford to lose.
"trading without hedges is not investing" >>> zerohedge
Ronald Reagan- War on drugs, Nancy Reagan Just Say No, remember? Please stop re-writing history we get enough of that from the media.
"they wondered what that means for Wednesday"...... Cmon thats an easy one, you know they unlogic by now, its means totall BULLISHNESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I kinda miss all the gold pumping articles here. Can you be both long the dollar and gold? What do I do now. I was buying gold like a fiend because everybody said precious metals.
Only 1 gold article this week on India sad. Buy Gold Buy Gold. Pump Pump.
The more I watch the financial industry the more I think its like some kind of entertainment. Its like who can make the biggest loses and look like the biggest fool is the biggest celebrity. Its like a reality show but really stupid.
Time for the gloom doom and boom report by Marc Faber:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e59rh3EV4gk
You need buy low and sell high
Sounds like you've been doing the opposite.
Perhaps no one gave him the road map to when and what high and low would be. I'm still looking for my copy so I'm working on my homemade version. Gold is currently sitting on the strong 1525 support line that's been around since last July, so far four points straight across the bottom. No one passed a law to saw it can't go lower so beware but the metals are massively oversold now so likely it holds. The top is a descending series of highs making one of those cute triangle formations with a flat bottom. It has one last hump to make up above 1600 then back to baseline until ??? early fall when the wedge will have to break. ZHers will all say it will break upward and when it does it will go ballistic. If you take this road map and $1.50 to Starbucks you can get a cup of coffee.
Learn to think for yourself.
The more I watch the financial industry the more I think its like some kind of entertainment. Its like who can make the biggest loses and look like the biggest fool is the biggest celebrity. Its like a reality show but really stupid.
You're really onto something, there. I'd say it's like a food-fight between severely retarded giants. It's somewhat important, but it's definitely really stupid. Some of the "little people" care because every once in awhile, a nice tasty morsel ends up on the floor and can be safely scavenged.
Shuppet.
Obama was overheard asking Joe Biden...isn't an ATM an Automated TelePrompTer Machine
$1 billion withdrawn from banks is the 'start' of a possible bank run? WTF how much more is left IN any bank there?
MOC buy orders ... international banks to the rescue! Prop it up, baby ... there is nothing left to do.
smells like re-convergence time....
http://fiatflaws.blogspot.com/
USA! USA! USA!
http://nationranking.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/2011-qli2.png
At one time, the greatest nation on the earth... ranking on the same "peace" levels as Angola, Senegal and... Rwanda!!
Can't even break the top ten nations in ANYTHING!! Not even "democracy"... maybe Finland should be going to war with other nations and bring them "democracy!"
WAY TO GO BILLY CLINTON, GEORGIE BUSH, SORETERO OBAMAO and yes even MITTS ROMNUTS...
All the same evil men seeking to destroy the American way of life which now has become a total joke...
Top 10 in government debt, landmass, and population...what are you, anti-Americanist or something?
We have the largest assmass per capita too.
pods
I'm still waiting for data from Samoa.
I wouldn't go so far as to call the brother fat..............
Did you notice where the US ranked in "wealth"
If it wasn't for the smoke and mirrors of a fake ponzi stock rally concocted by BEnron and Greenscum, the USA would have ranked near the bottom half...
>>"what are you, anti-Americanist or something"<<
Haha, au contraire!! Its "anti-Amerikkkun" (as in Krony Kapitalist Kuntry)
Here's some more stats to ponder (and thank the past 4 presidentes) for...
these are for "developed nations"
highest rate of heart attack
highest rate of cocaine use per capita
highest rate of binge drinking
highest rate of cocaine use per capita
highest rate of gonorrhea
highest rate of obesity
highest rate of child poverty
and I know theres more!!
<<sigh!!>>
It is extremely difficult for me to believe that USA has highest rate of child poverty when I have traveled to and examined from afar some of the poorer developing nations, case in point is India. Would like to see the report that backs up the USA highest claim.
Ahhh, did you read the post or just skip to the bottom? It says in the "developed" nations...
True, other nations are worse but they are not consiudered developed
>> "anti-Amerikkkun" (as in Krony Kapitalist Kuntry) <<
How come I think you had the urge to write "Americccan" as in Crony Captialsit Cee U Next Tuesday....
Yah, right on!
highest rate of heart attack
highest rate of cocaine use per capita
highest rate of binge drinking
highest rate of cocaine use per capita
highest rate of gonorrhea
highest rate of obesity
highest rate of child poverty
Two of those are positives. Or three. Or uh at least the one that was so important you had to list it twice...uh...what about OCD rates?
If yesterday was ostrich rally day, then today is boost the financials day.
Thank you for posting. I, too, was wondering WTF happened to cause the big selloff at 1PM EST and there was nothing posted on ZH about the long ATM lines and possible runs on the banks in Greece. Anyone know what other blogsites were posting about this realtime yesterday?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/has-greek-bank-run-started
Did Gold & Silver just smell the coffee?
or are they setting up to decapitate some more bottom feeders.
No, it will continue it's crash till moral improves in the Euro Zone. I reported that 2 weeks ago to get the fuc out of Gold and Silver if your a short time investor. Search my posts, It won't stop for a while.
I know what you meant (morale), but it's funny this way too,,,truer too
The ATM stories sound like propaganda/hype to me. No mention of it in any of the Greek newspapers I checked out. Fear mongering of the type I expect to see oh ZH. I'm not saying there weren't withdrawals, but it looks like ZH's lame-o picture from yesterday is the sole source of the "ATM lines" rumor. Which is why I would never quote something from ZH until I have verified it.
Like the ZH bank outflow reports of the last several months?
Why is it that Tyler(s) cannot have fun while the world burns?
pods
Hey, I read this blog, find it amusing, but always have an eye out for the yellow journalism. Others aren't so discriminating, but I am hyper aware of propaganda these days.
It's always safe to quote with attribution.
"Dick Cheney said Reagan proved deficits don't matter."
"The leader of Greece's Golden Dawn says Hitler was one of the great men of the 20th century."
"James Earl Ray said niggers are subhuman."
"Tyler Durden says use soap."
Right. And I have been humiliated in the past by making the mistake of quoting ZH. Ad hom attacks, to be sure, but it taught me to verify.
Enough of this old windbag..trading must be slow... like non existant, for he is now a writer!.
Hard Core Bank runs: http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/greeks-rush-the-banks-lines-form-at-atms-nearly-1-billion-withdrawn-in-past-week_05152012
Yeah, real reliable source there. Still no mention of ATM lines in Greek newspapers. Isn't that the same picture ZH showed yesterday? What is it about the idea of ATM lines that gets people all stirred up? Its much more likely people moved money electronically, but anything to get the sheeple stirred up, right? Need a picture to get the sheeple to stuff their mattresses.
Newspapers that don't print stories that are negative to their country... I'm sure that's never happened before.
Surely there would be SOME local news source describing the run on ATMs. You aren't suggesting that they are ALL on the same page?
Bank runs moving along in Greece alright. What was 700m in first week after the elections became 1.2bn in the first two days of this week. Confirmed by the Financial Times.
Apparently, there is still €127bn on deposit in Greek banks (as insane as that sounds). So it's more of a steady walk than a run - just people taking out loose change to keep under their beds, 'just in case'.
Where's the confirmation that this is cash withdrawals, not electronic? The unemployed are probably draining their savings, but I would imagine those with big balances are just moving it elsewhere. Thats enough of a story for me, but gotta stir up the sheeple with the ATM pictures. lol. The mattress story is just hype until I see confirmation.
If it follows history, it will accellerate, because as the volume of saving deposits gets smaller, people's scence of urgentcy increase.
Eg if the press said theres 100 billion left in depostis as of monday - you think hmmm, but if you heard theres 1 billion left - you'd race to the bank.
A bit like a dutch auction with a dash of tulips on the side ;-)
Question is...are they going to keep euro, usd or...gold and silver....BITCHEZ !
.....meanwhile, back home our canary NASCAR drops from its perch: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obamas-economy-wrecking-nascar_64448...
onoz. I am losing the popularity contest. too bad i don't vote or i'd vote for myself.
Hello ZH my name is Art Cashin. I've been cashin' it since the dawn of CNBC, promoting Wall Street views that made me rich. Not only that, I work for the biggest fraudsters in the universe-UBS.
Par for the course.