- advertisements -
There won't be a crash. The PPT will see to that.
So much for a "free" market.
Or will 2012 be the year the bill comes due? I hope so.
The can has been kicked about as much as one can. Time to pay(up) pals.
There wont be a crash again, EVER?
Lesson of 2008: All can crash, $, €, bond markets globally but not the 'market'. Everybody watches the 'market' with wide-eyed anticipation now... when Lord? When?
Those are both near-term calls. Very dangerous stuff. It's not quite the same predicting a near term bull, and a medium term bear market. Predicting a strong December and a weak January is basically a bet that the market is about to turn on a dime. Typically those kinds of predictions are almost always wrong.
If 2012 is going to kick off with a selling frenzy -- you can bet a decent number of funds will sell early, and there goes the Xmas rally.
Anyone attempting to time this is insane.... which is why the market will probably shit the bed sooner than those underperforming "analysts" predict.
And then there's this, from Charles Hugh Smith: http://oftwominds.com/blog.html
Definitely, anyone thinking theyve got this all figured out and will frontrun the Maniacal Monetizers at their own rigged game must be insane.
I don't see a strong case for either rally or crash.
If Greece is supposed to be rolling 8 billion Euros in bonds the week of 12/19, and there's no workaround in place by then, how could anyone predict the effects that'll have on US equities? If that's the start of true crackup of the Eurozone, seems to me there are a few too many moving parts to call that bullish or bearish.
Santa Claus rally = Money Mangers Bonus Season.
The headlines will be hilarous. How problems are ALL solved, the US is best of a bad bunch, GDP to grow by 5% in 2012, BLAH BLAH BLAH.
No where except Zerohedge will the headline read, Money Manager need to beat their benchmarks/high water marks, to avoid getting fired and to make their BONUSES.
Enjoy the last bonus season bankers, spend it wisely, this is your last one.
" . . . spend it wisely. . ."
Agreed. I will buy my wife some silver and she will reciprocate.
Could it be that the Santa Rally has already come and gone???
Excuse me, but didn't ZH just say that the FED is turning dovish, and QE3 is right around the corner? Doesn't sound like a crash is imminent to me.
Even saying there is 'QE3', how long does that last? A week? And then what? Lets face it, its hardly 2008 anymore.
What is the catalyst for QE3?
Munibonds Crisis Tyler
Nobody cares about munibonds, at all.
Jefferson County would indicate otherwise.
It will need to build some...a few more need to warn or default.
Hooker parties ?
I think the QE3 bazooka will shoot blanks because:
Although Bernanke is flooding the market with funny money, the rate of deleveraging is occuring faster than the Fed can monetize.
Real unemployment is rising. Housing inventory is decreasing, but prices are still falling. The housing market is bigger than the gold market.
When the Euro crashes, currencies will still be in demand. The dollar is the least corrupt currency. The demand for dollars will outstrip the demand for gold when the Euro crashes. Hence, a Euro crash will be deflationary.
QE3 will not be able to stop the run into the dollar when the Euro crashes. The Fed would have to monetize US debt and Euro debt to stop the run into the dollar and keep the Euro afloat. My money is invested in deflation because I believe the Fed will blink when it come to actually hyperinflating. Not that the Fed wouldn't hyperinflate, but the pressure of further downgrades to treasuries will be too much risk for the Fed to take on.
Bernanke has been saying that the Fed can't do it alone. He's positioning the Fed to be able to say, "We're doing our part" when the deflationary crash begins. He's not making grand public appearances to explain how the Fed is going to save the economy. With QE1 he was on 60 minutes.
He's changing the optics. He knows he can't turn back the deflationary forces if Congress doesn't get its act together. If there's any safe bet out there, it's that Congress won't get its act together.
Think of the Fiscal situation. If interest rates go up even a little the Govt deficit will explode even greater than it is now. That's when we get hyperinflation and the dollar goes down the drain. Until then Ben will be happy with deflation, ZIRP, and 1 1/2 % growth. because the alternative is catastrosphic.
Barrack Insane Obamas re-election........... Not that they really need one.
Catalyst for QE3 is a significant decrase in market value. More QE will be a tough sell at DOW 12,000 and 8.6% unemployment, as one would argue we are in recovery and making progress. I don't subsribe to that opinion, but the logic will be; why QE if all is well. Also, oil neds to come down before any QE, otherwise we'll have $130 WTI and that will choke off any hope of recovery.
It won't be THE crash, but you'll have a similair week like we did in August when we saw a -200, -400, and -525 loss in the DOW, as well as S+P losses.
This will then be the perfect excuse for QE3, and they'll be saying QE3 is a must have "stop gap" masure to save the economy.
Things will limp along until Jan 2013. Then The Crash probably happens.
Santa is coming to town and bringing shitloads of bonuses with him!
Tyler- Here is something to publish
SEC being sued.
29th december big turning point according to BRADLEY METHODOLOGY..just for advice....
yeah, it's a turning point. Soon afterwards its 2012...
Arch Crawford says no way he's not gonna be short this weekend...something about a URANUS eclipse.....
Thx Wharf for Crawford back up stuff.
Hey I am waiting for Stan Clause to drop in. I have the Wild Turkey Ready. Does this mean there is no more Waffle Makers on Sale? Damn, missed the sale.
If you only now realize you missed the Waffle Maker sale you came out ahead on the deal. All those Waffle Makers have already quit working and are resting in land fills.
How about Spare parts- Any market for that?
Hey, don't spit on the waffle maker. Anything that can turn a little flour, milk, eggs & butter into a meal on little electricity is a nice thing to have in the closet. Pantry prep, bitchez!
Is The Street that stupid? Seriously, you have to ask. Would they stack capital on this absurdly "bailout" hope driven tower of nonsense rally in hopes of getting a good print...which they perceive to be career saving?
Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen...black or red.
This market has been so utterly destroyed, it is staggering that there is even a functioning shell of it left.
The last 2 QE's came after strong downward moves...or maybe the downward moves occurred because those "in the know" felt safe selling with a guaranteed bailout to run it all back up?
We all know these guys just hate holding equities for more than a day or two...or is it seconds now...riveting!
Just like the Thanksgiving Rally that never came. Everyone was caught flat footed as we saw huge declines.
It seems that Wall Street always does the direct opposit of what is expected and simple logic. That is how they make so much money.
I have yet to see anything happen in the market when everybody has looked for it. My guess is there are going to be a lot of hedge fund managers out of a job.
" My guess is there are going to be a lot of hedge fund managers out of a job. "
Hard to be out of a job when you are the boss?
Hedge Funds run the world dontcha know....
Also, makes me wonder if that 900 point rally last week was the Santa Clause Rally. Just a little early.
I am not sure we can climb another 900 points in a few weeks.
How can you possibly have QE whatever with the Dow at 12,000? Would never fly. Averages look good to most sheeples. Never mind NFLX, RIMM, and on and on.
The Single Tax: Economic and Moral Implications
How about Black Friday every Friday till the end of the year? Now that is what I call competing with Greece. Whay stop partying. One big Orgy party in the USA.
Consumermas should be 90 days long with regular shopping bacchanals spread throughout.
Spain and Italy have EUR750B in debt to issue in 2012.
EU banks have north of EUR1T in debt to roll in 2012.
Does Summit 15 address this looming funding disaster. Does it address the lack of growth in the EU?
But yes that tighter union being proposed by Merkozy, you know the one that will take 2 years to actually come together, sure is awesome.
And in the other corner you have the Fed, known to print trillions to protect the banks and restrained only by the dim threat that congress and the president might get pissed off enough to change the rules that allow the Fed free rein. There are two 800 pound gorillas in this fight and I can't predict who wins. Be certain though that the 99% will lose either way.
Tips: tips [ at ] zerohedge.com
General: info [ at ] zerohedge.com
Legal: legal [ at ] zerohedge.com
Advertising: ads [ at ] zerohedge.com
Abuse/Complaints: abuse [ at ] zerohedge.com
Advertise With Us
Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide
How to report offensive comments
Notice on Racial Discrimination.