Art Cashin On The Possibility Of A "Christmas Rally", And The Certainty Of "The Post Christmas Crash" That Will Follow

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Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:14 | 1950608 EscapeKey
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There won't be a crash. The PPT will see to that.

So much for a "free" market.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:17 | 1950624 Pinch
Pinch's picture

Or will 2012 be the year the bill comes due? I hope so.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 12:43 | 1951145 Deo vindice
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The can has been kicked about as much as one can.  Time to pay(up) pals.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:18 | 1950626 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

There wont be a crash again, EVER?

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:18 | 1950630 GeneMarchbanks
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Lesson of 2008: All can crash, $, €, bond markets globally but not the 'market'. Everybody watches the 'market' with wide-eyed anticipation now... when Lord? When?

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:30 | 1950611 Popo
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Those are both near-term calls.   Very dangerous stuff.   It's not quite the same predicting a near term bull, and a medium term bear market.    Predicting a strong December and a weak January is basically a bet that the market is about to turn on a dime.   Typically those kinds of predictions are almost always wrong.

If 2012 is going to kick off with a selling frenzy -- you can bet a decent number of funds will sell early, and there goes the Xmas rally.

Anyone attempting to time this is insane.... which is why the market will probably shit the bed sooner than those underperforming "analysts" predict.


And then there's this, from Charles Hugh Smith:

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:41 | 1950699 SheepDog-One
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Definitely, anyone thinking theyve got this all figured out and will frontrun the Maniacal Monetizers at their own rigged game must be insane.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 13:51 | 1951460 blunderdog
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I don't see a strong case for either rally or crash.

If Greece is supposed to be rolling 8 billion Euros in bonds the week of 12/19, and there's no workaround in place by then, how could anyone predict the effects that'll have on US equities?  If that's the start of true crackup of the Eurozone, seems to me there are a few too many moving parts to call that bullish or bearish.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:16 | 1950617 lizzy36
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Santa Claus rally = Money Mangers Bonus Season.

The headlines will be hilarous. How problems are ALL solved, the US is best of a bad bunch, GDP to grow by 5% in 2012, BLAH BLAH BLAH.

No where except Zerohedge will the headline read, Money Manager need to beat their benchmarks/high water marks, to avoid getting fired and to make their BONUSES.


Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:43 | 1950705 SheepDog-One
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Enjoy the last bonus season bankers, spend it wisely, this is your last one.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 12:45 | 1951157 Deo vindice
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" . . . spend it wisely. . ."

Agreed. I will buy my wife some silver and she will reciprocate.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:17 | 1950620 Matt1973
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Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:17 | 1950622 tonytiger
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Could it be that the Santa Rally has already come and gone???

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:17 | 1950623 wareco
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Excuse me, but didn't ZH just say that the FED is turning dovish, and QE3 is right around the corner?  Doesn't sound like a crash is imminent to me.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:20 | 1950636 SheepDog-One
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Even saying there is 'QE3', how long does that last? A week? And then what? Lets face it, its hardly 2008 anymore.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:20 | 1950641 Tyler Durden
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What is the catalyst for QE3?

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:26 | 1950660 hugovanderbubble
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Munibonds Crisis Tyler

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:39 | 1950689 SheepDog-One
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Nobody cares about munibonds, at all.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:41 | 1950696 GeneMarchbanks
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Jefferson County would indicate otherwise.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:43 | 1950708 SheepDog-One
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Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:50 | 1950728 flattrader
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It will need to build some...a few more need to warn or default.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:31 | 1950671 Popo
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Bonus season?

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:35 | 1950680 I am Jobe
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Hooker parties ?

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 11:05 | 1950771 BurntPinky
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I think the QE3 bazooka will shoot blanks because:

Although Bernanke is flooding the market with funny money, the rate of deleveraging is occuring faster than the Fed can monetize.

Real unemployment is rising. Housing inventory is decreasing, but prices are still falling. The housing market is bigger than the gold market.

When the Euro crashes, currencies will still be in demand. The dollar is the least corrupt currency. The demand for dollars will outstrip the demand for gold when the Euro crashes. Hence, a Euro crash will be deflationary.

QE3 will not be able to stop the run into the dollar when the Euro crashes. The Fed would have to monetize US debt and Euro debt to stop the run into the dollar and keep the Euro afloat. My money is invested in deflation because I believe the Fed will blink when it come to actually hyperinflating. Not that the Fed wouldn't hyperinflate, but the pressure of further downgrades to treasuries will be too much risk for the Fed to take on.

Bernanke has been saying that the Fed can't do it alone. He's positioning the Fed to be able to say, "We're doing our part" when the deflationary crash begins. He's not making grand public appearances to explain how the Fed is going to save the economy. With QE1 he was on 60 minutes.

He's changing the optics. He knows he can't turn back the deflationary forces if Congress doesn't get its act together. If there's any safe bet out there, it's that Congress won't get its act together.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 12:52 | 1951182 DUNTHAT
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Think of the Fiscal situation.  If interest rates go up even a little the Govt deficit will explode even greater than it is now.  That's when we get hyperinflation and the dollar goes down the drain.  Until then Ben will be happy with deflation, ZIRP, and 1 1/2 % growth.  because the alternative is catastrosphic.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 11:06 | 1950776 gatorengineer
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Barrack Insane Obamas re-election........... Not that they really need one.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 11:19 | 1950808 J 457
J 457's picture

Catalyst for QE3 is a significant decrase in market value.  More QE will be a tough sell at DOW 12,000 and 8.6% unemployment, as one would argue we are in recovery and making progress.  I don't subsribe to that opinion, but the logic will be; why QE if all is well.  Also, oil neds to come down before any QE, otherwise we'll have $130 WTI and that will choke off any hope of recovery.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:22 | 1950644 Shizzmoney
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It won't be THE crash, but you'll have a similair week like we did in August when we saw a -200, -400, and -525 loss in the DOW, as well as S+P losses. 

This will then be the perfect excuse for QE3, and they'll be saying QE3 is a must have "stop gap" masure to save the economy.

Things will limp along until Jan 2013.  Then The Crash probably happens.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:18 | 1950628 AngryGerman
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Santa is coming to town and bringing shitloads of bonuses with him!

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:18 | 1950629 I am Jobe
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Tyler- Here is something to publish

SEC being sued.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:18 | 1950631 hugovanderbubble
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29th december big turning point according to BRADLEY METHODOLOGY..just for advice....

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:20 | 1950638 AngryGerman
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yeah, it's a turning point. Soon afterwards its 2012...

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:28 | 1950667 hugovanderbubble
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Thx Wharf for Crawford back up stuff.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:21 | 1950643 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Hey I am waiting for Stan Clause to drop in. I have the Wild Turkey Ready. Does this mean there is no more Waffle Makers on Sale? Damn, missed the sale.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:26 | 1950659 Long-John-Silver
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If you only now realize you missed the Waffle Maker sale you came out ahead on the deal. All those Waffle Makers have already quit working and are resting in land fills.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:32 | 1950673 I am Jobe
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How about Spare parts- Any market for that?

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 11:28 | 1950839 ExistentialSkeptic
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Hey, don't spit on the waffle maker.  Anything that can turn a little flour, milk, eggs & butter into a meal on little electricity is a nice thing to have in the closet.  Pantry prep, bitchez!

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:22 | 1950645 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Is The Street that stupid?  Seriously, you have to ask.  Would they stack capital on this absurdly "bailout" hope driven tower of nonsense rally in hopes of getting a good print...which they perceive to be career saving?

Place your bets, ladies and or red.

This market has been so utterly destroyed, it is staggering that there is even a functioning shell of it left.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:23 | 1950648 Robslob
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The last 2 QE's came after strong downward moves...or maybe the downward moves occurred because those "in the know" felt safe selling with a guaranteed bailout to run it all back up?

We all know these guys just hate holding equities for more than a day or two...or is it seconds now...riveting!

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:54 | 1950654 Waterfallsparkles
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Just like the Thanksgiving Rally that never came.  Everyone was caught flat footed as we saw huge declines.

It seems that Wall Street always does the direct opposit of what is expected and simple logic.  That is how they make so much money.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:25 | 1950656 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I have yet to see anything happen in the market when everybody has looked for it. My guess is there are going to be a lot of hedge fund managers out of a job.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:26 | 1950662 Robslob
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" My guess is there are going to be a lot of hedge fund managers out of a job. "


Hard to be out of a job when you are the boss?


Hedge Funds run the world dontcha know....

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:53 | 1950665 Waterfallsparkles
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Also, makes me wonder if that 900 point rally last week was the Santa Clause Rally.  Just a little early.

I am not sure we can climb another 900 points in a few weeks.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:28 | 1950669 monopoly
monopoly's picture

How can you possibly have  QE whatever with the Dow at 12,000?  Would never fly. Averages look good to most sheeples. Never mind NFLX, RIMM, and on and on.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:34 | 1950678 I am Jobe
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The Single Tax: Economic and Moral Implications

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:36 | 1950683 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

How about Black Friday every Friday till the end of the year? Now that is what I call competing with Greece. Whay stop partying. One big Orgy party in the USA.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 11:16 | 1950800 Spastica Rex
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Consumermas should be 90 days long with regular shopping bacchanals spread throughout.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 10:51 | 1950731 lizzy36
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Spain and Italy have EUR750B in debt to issue in 2012.

EU banks have north of EUR1T in  debt to roll in 2012.

Does Summit 15 address this looming funding disaster. Does it address the lack of growth in the EU?

But yes that tighter union being proposed by Merkozy, you know the one that will take 2 years to actually come together, sure is awesome.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 11:12 | 1950793 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

And in the other corner you have the Fed, known to print trillions to protect the banks and restrained only by the dim threat that congress and the president might get pissed off enough to change the rules that allow the Fed free rein. There are two 800 pound gorillas in this fight and I can't predict who wins. Be certain though that the 99% will lose either way.

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