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Art Cashin On Technical Indicators Turning Red
Readers know that among the things the we find most meaningless in the New Normal are those anachronisms known as 'charts' - after all when it comes to central planners exclusively running the market, this has never occurred before in history at this level. Yet the impact of technical analysis should not to be discounted, as it does create a self-fulfilling prophecy (far weaker than the impact of marginal liquidity but it is there nonetheless), in which case today's note from Art Cashin may have an impact on risk appetite. Or not - all it takes for any bout of selling to end is a sideways glance from the Chairsatan and we see a 20% surge in risk in the next few months on nothing but a whisper of a new multi-trillion liquidity injection.
Cocktail Napkin Charting - As previously noted, the recent lethargic inaction has begun to impact the technical/picture. Jim Miekka (of Hindenburg Omen fame) has shifted to a “red” condition (time to sell) in his Sudbury Bull and Bear Report. He had been on a “green” (buy/hold) signal for many months.
Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader expresses concern about the divergence between the weakening Russell 2000 and the other averages, particularly the S&P. He is also troubled by the back to back inside days in the S&P. That has been followed by a negative pattern several times since 1982. Further, he notes that net longs in the oil market are at a 20 year high. For today, the napkins see S&P resistance at 1374/1377 and 1381/1384. Support looks like 1362/1365 then 1354/1357 and 1347/1351.
And in other tangential geopolitical news, Cashin also explains how the west, by pushing Iran into hyperinflation, has just made any potential future negotiation even more impossible.
In Iran the turnout was huge and Khamenei and the clerics saw their side gobble up nearly 75% of the Parliament seats. That makes Ahmadinejad even more of a lame duck and makes any compromise with the West very, very remote.
In the “be careful what you wish for” department, the West may have outsmarted itself. They imposed sanctions hoping to force Iran to the table. The sanctions are crushing the Iranian economy. The people blamed the weak economy on Ahmadinejad and therefore voted for the hard-line clerics, making negotiations even less likely.
Define irony
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No matter how bad the data, the algos drive it up.
Everyone looks the other way because the market is up.
The USA - destroying economies since 1492...
Yep, only problem is this 'UP' rally has been fueled by only $100bn going 'IN' and over $400bn going 'EXIT' from the stockmarkets
someone's cashing out ...Big Time
happening as i write this
Art may be right, but these guys www.x-charts.com are doing ok at least as far as I'm checking them, despite the rigged ad infinitum liquidity, and (allegedly) their stuff is based on Technical Analysis.
Well, the Iranian election 'analysis' is superficial to say the least, but it should be clear that the only thing more despised than the ultra-conservatives is 'Western' intervention. So the ball goes back to their court.
What a "no-win" situation for the average Iranian. I guess you GTFO.
That still guarantees them nothing. Iran isn't going anywhere and the new frontrunner for Prez says they are preparing for five more years of sanctions and 'other' tactics.
"They imposed sanctions hoping to force Iran to the table. The sanctions are crushing the Iranian economy. The people blamed the weak economy on Ahmadinejad and therefore voted for the hard-line clerics, making negotiations even less likely."
Seen through the "Problem, reaction, solution" lens this sounds like a win/win for the (Ponzi) master distractors, those who don't wish to be blamed for the coming mess they have created.
so we are helping to usher in the hard line clerics in Iran - after ushering in the muslim brotherhood, et al in libya.
is he sure these are mistakes? the west out-thinking itself? i wonder.
Idiots, evil geniuses, both, neither? Sociopaths don't think the same way that we do... it's hard to say, really.
It's safest not to assume that your enemy is a fool.
No, they are fools. But when you have an unlimited amount of paper to throw at something you can be a fool for a very long time.
Until of course- you cant.
Yup. Don't assume they are a fool and don't assume that they think the way you do. Sociopaths have no moral compass against which they must measure their decisions. I think that's an even bigger hurdle for people to get over when trying to understand the world around us. People dismiss so many things based on a gut feeling that tells them, "there's just no way that....".
Define irony
There's something witty to say about an Alanis Morrisette song and this article but I am stumped...it was going to be epic though.
Forever searching for the next enemy.... war is unending
This is all "Good News" for the market. If everyone is eventually killed in a Nuclear Firestorm there will be no more sellers. DOW INFINITY!
IBM at all time highs.
Tech bubble of 2012 in full swing.
Current low volume cotton candy market like 2008, 2001, etc.
The only thing more Bullish than this is Putin crying. He was touched by the Russians giving him the authority to put everyones head in a Vice.
You should be glad seeing as the second place finisher was a commie. Would you have preferred the NJ Nets owner?
I guess our elections aren't the only ones to have been turned into loosely-scripted reality TV programming.
"In the “be careful what you wish for” department, the West may have outsmarted itself."
bwahahahaha, yeah. aren't we clever.
Wake up. The west wants war. It is the only way to maintain the petro dollar. Same as it ever was.
open your mouth and you'll get a taste of sarcasm dripping from dumb n ugly's post.
Of course Obamma and Hilary want war. Nice tandem of killers. Did you see that "False Flag" story on 60 Minutes last night on fear of Stuxnet blowback? If that story is not enough to move the opposition of these draconian security laws, the DHS will carry out a real false flag attack and blame it on a foreign "criminal" gang.
Considering Ben needs Obama to keep his job, isn't it better to let the market correct now than closer to election day? Let the market dump on Iran fears and Greek default (not Obamas fault) and then print in June like there is no tomorrow - just in time to goose the market into November.
That's what I'd do...
"the impact of technical analysis should not to be discounted" indeed
Back in the day John Murphy used to appear on CNBC to school budding chartists...
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/03/intermarket-ratio-analysis.html
BULLISH!
Damn we're still 38 points from 13,000 and it is already 45 minutes into trading.
Ben must be stuck in traffic...
Or maybe there's a jewish holliday we aren't aware of?
We have been seeing the general momentum trending lower for weeks. These guys have been doing the daisy chain with computers and the "authorities" can't see it: http://www.quacera.com/tools-and-reports/early-warning-report/
She's goin' down...
Yup. Like a cheerleader on prom night.
But the hard-line clerics know only one thing - religious purity as they define it. They won't be able to run the economy. Expect the Iranian economy to tighten its spiral down the toilet. I think trying to bankrupt/impoverish Iran is a smart move strategically from the U.S. point of view. It's better (in my opinion) than bombing them or putting U.S. troops on the ground.
Don't misunderstand, if I was in charge we would just leave Iran alone, but in the NeoCon world inhabited by both the Dems and Repubs these days that seemingly is not an option. If they feel compelled to engage in conflict with Iran I think economic warfare is preferable to the old-fashioned kind.
The underwriters of FARCEBOOK will prop until the IPO, I stand by this, they did it w/ GM and other huge paydays. It makes an entire year. Morgan Stanley, GS, UBS, all primary dealers. Tell me if I'm off-base.
bearish!
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
http://www.cnhedge.com/