This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Art Cashin On Whether Or Not It's The Weather

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The labor data since last fall has been rather encouraging, writes UBS' Art Cashin in a note today. However, he is skeptical along agreeing with "lots of folks [who] think it may be the warm winter weather that accounts for it."

 

That makes sense on several levels.

The warm weather allows construction and other “outdoor” industries to maintain or begin projects. They need workers for that.

Second, the warm weather avoids the short shutdowns for winter storms often seen in January and February.

A recent Morgan Stanley report on why they think the “weather benefit” may soon wear off noted:

Our US team continues to see GDP tracking at a meager 1.7% in the current quarter, and attributes most of the decent labour market data in recent months to unusually mild winter weather. In fact, the four-week average of initial jobless claims has now been very little changed for a month and the big improving trend from mid- September to mid-February has thus now stalled. Our initial forecast for March non-farm payrolls, due on April 6, is that job growth will moderate to +175k, down from the average +245k gains in the three prior months, with a bigger weather-related payback likely ahead in the spring.

Longtime readers will recall, that I have noted some similarities between the recent claims data and those a year before. Since September 2011 through early March 2012 there has been marked improvement in claims. The same pattern emerged 12 months prior. Back then it flattened out in March and moved sideways for months.

The odd thing about the nearly identical patterns is that the winter of 2010/2011 was not as benign as this season. That suggests (to me, at least) that it may be more than just the thermometer that’s helping the numbers. It could be distortions in seasonal adjustment factors that got warped in the post-Lehman collapse. Just a thought.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 03/27/2012 - 13:33 | 2294897 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It's not nice to fool (with) Mother Nature.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLrTPrp-fW8

Heads up for ZH's RockyRacoon near the end of the clip. :>)

http://www.zerohedge.com/users/rockyracoon

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 14:44 | 2295094 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

Seasonal adjustments are based on historical data of a 30-year, debt-fueled cyclical bull market and now that we are in a cyclical bear market the numbers/adjustments don't work.  Why is this so difficult to understand?  

A simple year-over-year comp would do the trick and remove the need for central planning manipulation. But I guess that's the reason we don't make it simple - the defender of the status quo needs to hide in the weeds of complexity!  ugh!!    

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 02:10 | 2296568 Pinch
Pinch's picture

Global Warming, bitchez!

 

I'm a Climate Scientist (video)

 

 

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 15:08 | 2295175 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

 

On the 16th hole of the golf course, Ben had hit his ball into the rough. Obubba, his partner, laughed and poked fun, but then somehow managed to hit his own ball into the rough, just a few yards beyond.

Ben hunted for the ball a long time, getting angrier every minute. Finally, in a patch of pretty buttercups, he found his ball. In his zest to hit the ball out of the rough, he thrashed every single buttercup in that patch. Just yards away he could hear Obubba thrashing about like crazy as well, trying to get his ball free of the rough. Suddenly, in a flash and puff of smoke, a little old woman appeared. She said, "I'm Mother Nature! Do you know how long it took me to make those buttercups? Just for that, you won't be able to eat any butter for the rest of your life!" Suddenly Ben starts laughing like crazy and slapping his knees. The infuriated Mother Nature says "Mortal, do you understand that you will never again enjoy the sweet taste of butter in your food! What is so funny about that?" After Ben got hold of himself, he hollered for his friend, "Obubba! Obubba! Where are you?". Obubba yelled. "I'm over here, in the pussywillows."... 

 

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 16:38 | 2295544 MiddletonRobert3
MiddletonRobert3's picture

my roomate's sister makes $85 hourly on the computer. She has been fired from work for 6 months but last month her paycheck was $16158 just working on the computer for a few hours. Read more here .....  http://lazyCash9.com

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 16:59 | 2295625 andybev01
andybev01's picture

So, every day for 6 months she has been fired?

That must really take it's toll on her self esteem.

 

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 13:28 | 2294898 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

When all else fails... Blame the weather...

Bush should have been a weatherman...

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 13:33 | 2294911 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

are home depot and lowes jammed? cnbc says everyone is redoing the kitchens and houses??? Haven't been to one in a while

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 13:37 | 2294923 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Home depot in my area is seeing light traffic right now.  It was actually heavier last summer.   

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 15:24 | 2295227 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Home Depots quality has gone down and there return policy is a joke , Lowes are easyer to use these days , Home Depot is so 90s.

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 15:35 | 2295270 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It somewhat depends on where you live... The closest Home Depot is 8 miles from where I live, the closest Loews is close to 30 miles...

I'm not going to drive 22 more miles to deal with some who are only marginally better idiots than others...

 

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 13:39 | 2294924 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Oh, so when Bernanke claims it´s the wheater we laugh our asses off and mock him but when ZH guru Art Cashin does the same we´re supposed to take it seriously?

 

 

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 13:45 | 2294942 Jason T
Jason T's picture

I live upstate NY and a fellow in my local Lions Club.. I'm a Lion : )  .. told me a lot of his friends who have their own businesses are well ahead of business this year because of the weather. This was about a month ago.. sure was  mild winter this year.

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 13:57 | 2294972 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Can I just get a number?  A simple number.  Not seasonally adjusted.  Not weather related.  Not anything.  Just a number.

42

There, that's a number.  It's not even a prime number.

From now on it's the number to be used for everything.

 

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 14:05 | 2294985 kalasend
kalasend's picture

Seaonal patterns are real and weather does matter. It is just a problem of whether they get manipulated/misrepresented.

Asking for the raw numbers doesn't automatically get you true picture.

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 14:15 | 2295014 alexwest
alexwest's picture

yes you can,,

number on food stamps... i dont think working person will apply for. so its
pretty much good indicator of un/underemployment..

so we have +45 tmln adults here on food stamps, and 110-120 mln private jobs..
so you calculate how big real unemployment is ...

alx

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 14:00 | 2294977 unionbroker
unionbroker's picture

stock market is up so things gotta be good

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 14:11 | 2294998 alexwest
alexwest's picture

please no more this nonsense again about jobs and warm weather,,

I WONDER DOES MR CASHIN EVEN UNDERSTAND ANYTHING IN ECONOMICS?

job per se is NOT A GOAL. WHAT IMPORTANT IS QUILTY OF THIS JOBS , and by quality i mean whow much does it pay?

lets face there's a huge difference between job like sofTware design engineer at Apple paying 150 ths per year and 9 $ per hour job at MCdonalds..

so i dont care about numebr of jobs, its all fake data series, but i know some about quality... Mr Cashin can bluh and bluh all year around about jobs , but if he even understood basic macro parameters he would have not asked stupid questions..

12 MONTH ROLLING GROSS /COLLECTED TAXES are running just 1% y/y.. how is it possible to have positive labot market, postive GDP, positive street inflation ~5%, and taxes re barely up.. ???

ITS NO POSSIBLE,. THAT MEANS REAL ECONOMY/consumption ADJUSTED FOR GROWTH POPULATION/INFLATION IS FALLING. THAT IS ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW..

that means USA gov will keep on running 1.5 trln $ deficit, that means in 3-5 years $$$$ will blow off, and we gonna have 10 yy rate 6-8%, and US debt bigger 20 trln $, so only interest will be half of revenues

and GAME WILL BE OVER..

be warned
alx

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 14:33 | 2295061 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Speaking of weather...

Hows the skies in your area.???

Mine are all chemtrailed out....

No blue skies for you's ,boys and girls.

Long barium and aluminum sulfate.

And Monsanto aluminum tolerant seeds.

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 19:37 | 2295993 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

Someday they will put something in those trails and it will become ZombeTown. I hate those bastards. You write anyone in Government about it and never get a response. Even the water department will ignore you.

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 14:36 | 2295073 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

"that means USA gov will keep on running 1.5 trln $ deficit, that means in 3-5 years $$$$ will blow off, and we gonna have 10 yy rate 6-8%, and US debt bigger 20 trln $, so only interest will be half of revenues

and GAME WILL BE OVER.."

Tax revs are down and spending isn't going to be.  

The deficits will continue.

Very good call on all this.  But your extrapolations are not inevitable because you are forgetting that governments will do anything at all to keep the wheels turning.

That includes murdering bond vigilantes.

Do not think analysis has any value anymore.  Governments can change all the rules with the wave of a hand.  The Fed will not allow yields of 6-8%.  Period.  

And if gold looks like it poses a threat to the wheels turning, all gold transactions will be taxed at 70%.  Globally.

Only oil can stop government intervention.  Nothing else.

 

 

 

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!