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Cupertino, We Have A Problem: China's JD.Com Just Cut Prices On Apple Products By 17%





JD.com cut prices of Apple products on the internet marketplace by as much as 17%, according to information on the JD website. Customers can also purchase Apple products in 12 monthly installments with no interest charges and no downpayment." Among the discounts, iPad Air tablet with 16GB memory is priced at CNY 2,399 (USD 365), compared with CNY 2,888 on the Apple online store in China. The iPhone 6s Plus handset with 64GB memory is priced at CNY 6,288, compared with the official price of CNY 6,888.

 
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The Resurrection Of The Dying Art Of Economic Analysis (Or When The Fed Fails)





Detailed analysis of economic data is a dying art. The past seven year bull-market has largely justified the logic of such an approach, but the frenzied panic of the last month raises the question of whether investors will know how to adapt if the framework changes again. Recent market ructions offer the first evidence that central banks may be near the limit of their ability, or their willingness, to keep pumping up asset prices.

 
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Fed Mouthpiece Parses Back-Pedaling Fed Statement





"The Federal Reserve signaled renewed worry about financial market turbulence and slow overseas economic growth, but didn’t rule out raising short-term interest rates in March."

 
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Market Reaction To "Not Dovish Enough Statement" - Disappointment





Fed Funds futures now imply the next rate hike will not occur until at least H2 2016 and this level of fear about the economy appears to have spooked stocks and crude and put a bid under bonds and bullion... VIX is chaos as the machines try desperately to get stocks higher...

 
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FOMC Preview: "A Rate Cut Is Very Much In The Mix"





This is the first meeting we can remember where serious and important market participants differed so strongly on the issue of what they ought to do. It’s not just hold or raise, cut is very much in the mix.

 
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Ugly 5 Year Auction Results In Biggest Tail In Months





While many were surprised when yesterday's 2 Year auction saw absolutely blistering demand, including a near record Indirect take down and a yield stopping deeply through the When Issued, none of that was on display in today's 5 Year auction which concluded moments ago when the Treasury sold $35 billion of Cusip N89 at a yield of 1.496%. The problem: this was 0.9 bps wide of the When Issued and one of the biggest auction tails in recent months.

 
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US Economy: On A Knife's Edge





We may not yet have final confirmation that a recession is imminent, but so far nothing suggests that the danger has receded.

 
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Stocks Storm Green, Oil Surges After Russia Says Will Discuss "Possible Production Cuts With OPEC"





For those wondering what matters in this market, here is the answer: moments ago US stocks stormed into the green, following oil which after some confusion after today's massive DOE inventory build, has surged back over $32, one just one piece of news: moments ago both Reuters and Bloomberg cited the CEO of Russia's Transneft, who said that Russia and OPEC will discuss possible output cuts: BREAKING: Russia's Transneft says Russia and OPEC will discuss possible output cuts -TASS; RUSSIA TO DISCUSS OIL OUTPUT LEVELS W/ OPEC: TOKAREV

 
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23,144 Ways America Created Terrorists In 2015





“The Effort to purify the world is self-defeating; the United States becomes a Sisyphus with bombs, able to set off explosions, but unable to cope with its own burden." The more aggressive their attempts to eradicate evil, the stronger evil becomes on both sides. Each of the 23,144 bombs dropped on Muslim countries in 2015 potentially created another terrorist.

 
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Showdown Imminent: FBI Sets Up Checkpoints Around Oregon Refuge





“I don't know what to tell you but if somebody saying 'peaceful resolution' comes in and points guns at me...”

 
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The Illusion Of Safety: Index Funds Are Not Low-Risk





The financial service industry's Prime Directive is to exploit humanity's core drives of Greed and Fear. Financial service companies promise high returns (fulfilling our greed) that are low-risk, i.e. "safe" (placating our fear of losing our nest-egg). But the safety of many supposedly low-risk investments is illusory.

 
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Goldman Trading Desk's 4 Reasons For A Tactical Bounce Ahead Of Renewed Shorting Between 1925-1950





"S&P e-minis have now rallied 5% off the YTD low print (1804.25). As we see it, the argument for a continued short-term, tactical bounce in S&P is: 1) month-end pension rebalancing (GS expects $14bn of equities to buy as of 22Jan );2) majority of corporates exiting their buyback blackout window next week;3)perceived reduction of CTA driven equity supply an 4) oversold conditions (Kostin’s Sentiment Indicator was at 3 last Friday). I still think the market is going to look to re-initiate shorts between 1925-1950."

 
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Oil Oscillates As Inventories Surge Most In 9 Months And Demand Plunges





Following last night's huge 11.4mm barrel inventory build forecast from API (the largest since 1996), DOE reports an 8.4mm build (against analysts estimates of +4mm). It seems the blowback from the huge gasoline and inventory builds is flowing back upstream to crude but there is some good news as Cushing saw a 771k draw after 11 weeks of builds (and production dropped very modestly). On the demand side, it's just as ugly with Gasoline demand -2.5% YoY and Distillate demand down a stunning 14.8% YoY. Having tested the API ledge in prices twice this morning, WTI is hovering between $30.50 and $31.

 
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US Crude Inventories Are The Highest Since The Great Depression





In case you were under the impression that oil was stabilizing, we thought this chart might help clarify just how "different" it is this time in the energy complex...

 
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