The selling is because the dominant Common Knowledge regarding energy sector stocks is that they move up and down with the price of oil. Common Knowledge is not what everyone knows; that’s the consensus. Common Knowledge is what everyone knows that everyone knows, and it’s the driving force behind the Game of Sentiment. Everyone knows that everyone knows energy stocks are tied to oil prices, we just took another sharp leg down in oil prices, and so energy stocks must be sold. The fact that energy stocks are down “proves” the relationship (a wonderful example of Soros’s concept of reflexivity), which adds to the selling. The reality (not that it matters) is that energy stocks are barely correlated with the price of oil, and their correlation with each other is barely driven by oil prices. What’s really driving this across-the-board decline is the fact that “long energy” has become a very crowded trade.
"It's a funny thing... but if you start taxing countries for doing the right thing, in order to pay countries who are doing the wrong thing, you're going to end up fewer of the former and more of the latter." Europe's perverse incentives to 'not' succeed exposed in just 70 seconds...
Bob Farrell's rule #9 says: "When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen." Why should you care? Because hardly anyone expects US Treasuries to outperform in 2015… and that’s exactly why they might. In the following analysis, we’ll look at 5 reasons why the long bond might be the best trade of next year.
By now, every trader who watches markets every day is acutely aware of the increasing concentration of massive amounts of volume in the last second of the trading day. Here is 8 years of the last few seconds of the trading day and how 'efficiently' it has evolved...
President Obama Reminds Americans Of The Threat Of Ebola (& The Need To Spend $6 Billion To Fix It) - Live FeedSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/02/2014 17:55 -0400
With Ebola off the front-pages of every media outlet, President Obama appears to finding it tough to get his $6 billion funding request to fight the deadly disease... time for some hope (things are good in America, Spain delcared Ebola-free) and fearmongery (5,987 deaths and 16,889 cases currently) as The White House increases Ebola response units in the US and sends more military and civilians into Africa...
Following yesterday's dead-cat-bounce, oil prices resumed their downward push today, closing just shy of the flush lows on Friday back to a $66 handle for WTI. Gold also slipped modestly with copper and silver flat as the USD surged higher (+0.75% on the day). Stocks just melted up all day long (supported by USDJPY pushing to new cycle highs over 119), stop-hunting the whole way (with the S&P breaking back above its 5-day moving-average and back into the green on the week briefly). Yesterday's losers (Trannies and Small Caps) were today's BTFD winners. Treasury yields rose notably once again (up 11-13bps on the week) as we suspect oil-producers are selling to help support their collapsing currencies. VIX closed below 13 - slammed into the close to scrape the S&P back above its 5DMA.
If all it took to push stocks to ever recorder(est) highs, granted on no volume, but recorder(est) highs nonetheless, was for correlation algos to pick a carry FX pair trade du jour which to push the Nikkei, or the Dax, or - most frequently - the S&P higher, then all equity indices would already been in scientific digit territory. And since they aren't, it is only logical that prosperity through currency debasement can only "work" for so long.
But how long? Well, when it comes to the primary carry pair du jour, the Dollar-Yen, the answer may be just a few hundred pips more, before it all comes unglued for Japan's Prime Minister whose first stint in the role ended in a prophetic bout of epic diarrhea, Shinzo Abe.
Just 15 months after Detroit's Black Out 2013 debacle, spokespeople for the city and DTE Energy confirmed at around 11:00 a.m. local time on Tuesday that most of Detroit’s municipal grid is offline:
*DETROIT CITES 'MAJOR CABLE FAILURE' FOR POWER OUTAGE
*DETROIT: OUTAGE IS AFFECTING ALL CUSTOMERS ON THE PLD GRID
The outage is preventing power from being delivered to police stations, schools, traffic lights and other city-run facilities and services.
It's good to be king (or Europe). Former European Council President Herman van Rompuy, derided for "damp rag" ineptness by UKIP's Nigel Farage, will receive around $900,000 over the next 3 years as a "transition allowance" for doing absolutely nothing in retirement. What is even more egregious, as The Telegraph reports, Van Rompuy will pay a reduced "EU Community" tax rate, considerably lower than the Belgian income tax rate on his ill-gotten gains. As Farage exclaims, having driven millions of Europeans into poverty and unemployment during his reign, Van Rompuy "hit the jackpot."
When the 5th largest dark pool trading venue (by volume) in America is shuttered, as Citi notes because its "capital, resources and efforts would be better redeployed elsewhere," you know there is a problem in US stock trading volumes and liquidity. Everyday we get 'glimpses' of this collapse - most recently yesterday's AAPL flash-crash - as human traders (who provide the 'fish' for the machines) disappear and HFT liquidity-providers pull liquidity in a flash. Crucially, as we hinted previously, we wonder if the large firms are exiting the dark pool business before some engineered market collapse is pinned on these opaque 'markets' who have come under increased regulatory scrutiny.
"I'm not very worried," explains Fed Vice Chairman Stan Fischer in a very Bernanke-"contained"-like nonchalence about the total collapse of oil prices (and US oil producer stocks). Sharply lower oil prices will boost spending and aid U.S. growth, Fischer stated in a mind-blowingly naive speech for the 2nd-most-important-monetary-policy-maker-in-the-world, adding that lower oil prices were "a phenomenon that’s making everybody better off." We don’t understand his ignorance: as we noted earlier, Fischer is talking about money that would otherwise also have been spent, only on gas. There is no additional money, so where’s the boost? This is just complete and bizarre nonsense.
Once upon a time, the only place where a western fighter jet could come within meters of a Russian MiG was on Top Gun. However, according to a video released earlier today by the Norwegian Armed Forces, that is no longer the case. In the clip, a Russian MiG-31 "suddenly cut in front of one of two Norwegian aircraft sent up by NATO to intercept Russian aircraft in international airspace north off Norway. “What the hell,” says the Norwegian F-16 pilot in the video, as he dodges the MiG-31 passing him at a distance estimated to be closer than 20 meters (65 feet)."
All the analysts chortling over the "equivalent of a tax break" for consumers are about to be buried by an avalanche of defaults and crushing losses as the chickens of financializing oil come home to roost.