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The American Dream (Of Institutionalized Serfdom)





The status quo "solution" to the decline of opportunities for meaningful work is predictably top-down: guaranteed income for all, a.k.a. "welfare for all." This is of course a re-hash of the Keynesian Cargo Cult's 1930 fix for the Great Depression, except on a far grander scale. If the "solution" doesn't enable the accumulation of capital in all its forms by individuals and households, it isn't a real solution--it's just another top-down scheme that institutionalizes subsistence serfdom.

 
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ISIS Releases New Video Featuring Paris Attackers, Group Planning "Large Scale" Assault On Europe





If Russian and Western airstrikes are “degrading and defeating” Islamic State, someone forgot to tell al-Hayat Media Center, the brain trust for a sprawling network of discrete propaganda production units that are spread across nearly a dozen countries.

 
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SandRidge On The Verge Bankruptcy: Would Be 2nd Largest Shale Chapter 11 In Past Year





As we said two days ago when looking at the paltry recoveries on their total debt that bankrupt energy debtors are generating in liquidation and bankruptcy asset sales, "the energy bankruptcy party is only just starting." And sure enough, overnight we learned that another company is preparing to throw in the towel following a Reuters report that SandRidge Energy - a shale oil and gas producer in the Mid-Continent region of the U.S. - is exploring debt restructuring options, "as the heavily indebted U.S. oil and gas exploration and production company struggles with the fallout from plunging energy prices."

 
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Key Events In The Coming Week: Fed, BOJ And More





Following a rerun of September 2015, when Draghi sent market expectations about ECB action sky-high only to massively disappoint in December (we will have to wait until March to see if it is deja vu all over again) last week, this week is just as big for central bank jawboning with the FOMC (Wednesday) and the BoJ meeting on Friday, with hopes that they will at least hint of more easing if not actually do much.

 
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Why Junk Bonds Will Sink Stocks





After the white-knuckle sell-off of global equities that was finally punctuated by a rally late last week, everyone wants to know: Was this the bottom for stocks? And now Moody’s weighs in with an unwelcome warning... "it’s hard to imagine why the equity market will steady if the US high-yield bond spread remains wider than 800 basis point."

 
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"Bowels Emptied! Women Molested!" German Media Reveals "Monstrous" CCTV Footage Of Refugee Pool Mayhem





Despite the best efforts of European cartoonists, some refugees apparently didn’t get the message about proper pool behavior because according to “reports,” some asylum seekers were caught on closed circuit TV doing some rather lewd things at the Johannisbad baths in Zwickau.

 
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Markets Are In The "Eye Of The Storm", Trader Warns





"While the worst of the U.S.’s epic winter blizzard has officially passed, it’s less likely that the storm in financial markets can also be said to have ended."

 
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Frontrunning: January 25





  • Oil Drops as Saudis to Maintain Spending, China Diesel Use Falls (BBG)
  • Saudi Arabia is able to withstand low prices says Saudi Aramco Chairman (WSJ)
  • Recession Warnings May Not Come to Pass (WSJ)... or they May
  • Stocks moving in tandem are squeezing short sellers (FT)... as first noted here in 2013
  • Problems Found at Theranos Lab (WSJ)
  • New York rebounds after blizzard, Washington shuts down government (Reuters)
  • China business confidence, recruitment hit record lows in January - SMI survey (Reuters)
 
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Oil Slides Dragging Global Stocks, US Futures Lower, After Saudi Aramco Supply Comments





After the biggest two-day surge in oil in seven years, early in the overnight session both Brent and WTI continued their run for a third day, entering a bull market, 20% up from recent lows hit just last week (still 15% down on the year) when Saudi Arabia spoiled the momentum party after  the world’s biggest crude exporter said it’s keeping up investments in energy projects while diesel consumption in China dropped for a fourth consecutive month, signaling an industrial slowdown. And thanks to the near record correlation between equities and oil, global stocks and US equity index futures initially rose only to slide following the Saudi comments.

 
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The One Chart Which Explains "Why Markets Are All Falling Down"





We hope that after they see the following chart, which shows not only DM net liquidity injections (i.e., q-easing), but also EM net liquidity outflows (i.e., quantitative tightening) and which explains not only the recent selloff, but also shows how to trade global central bank and sovereign wealth fund and reserve manager flows, all confusion and denial will end.

 
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The Ultimate "Truth Bomb" - The East Knows The West Is Bankrupt





What would the world look like the day following a “truth bomb” dropped by Mr. Putin and the Chinese.

 
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Kyle Bass Warns Of "A Lot More Pain To Come" Before This Is Over





Having recently explained his "greatest investment opportunity for the next 3 to 5 years," Kyle Bass expands on his China discussions to focus on Emerging Markets more broadly and specifically The BRICs. As Benzinga summed up, Bass Warns "we still have three tough innings to go, maybe four," he warning that emerging markets will "see a lot more pain before things are okay."

 
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Big Bad China





China matters...

 
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With EMs And SWFs Pushing Markets Lower, Here Are The Three Dramatic Conclusions





Earlier today we showed an amazing schematic courtesy of Citi's Matt King: if one includes the reserve liquidation by various EMs and SWF, and nets it against liquidity injections by DM central banks (and the PBOC), one gets a perfect quantitative, not just qualitative, walk thru on how to trade markets: in other words one can measure, using high frequency data in real-time, just where markets should trade based on liquidity flows and promptly profit from any arbitrage opportunities. But aside from the potential for substantial profits, there are more profound implications. Matt King lays them out as follows..

 
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Even Goldman No Longer Believes China's GDP Fiction





In China, the government reported 4Q GDP growth of 6.8%. However, during the same time period our China CAI (Current Activity  Indicator) expanded at an average of just 4.5%, 230 bp slower than the official measure. Earlier this week our December CAI reading suggested China economic growth has decelerated to just 4.2%.

 
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