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Asia Opens And Risk-On Closes

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Update: Gold and Silver are extending losses now.

Asian markets have been open for an hour or two now and markets have done nothing but extend the late-day derisking from the last hour of the US day-session. S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) are down around 8pts from the close, Treasury yields are 5-7bps off their intraday highs now (3-4bps lower than where they closed), JPY is strengthening (carry-off - even though Noda is scheduled to speak), AUD is weakening (carry-off - almost back to post Aussie jobs print levels), and Copper & Oil are tumbling (WTI back under $83). Gold and Silver are falling off quicker now (having suffered during the day session and stabilized a little) as it seems markets are playing catch up to their signals (still around unch from 5/28 closing levels while WTI is down almost 9% and Copper -3.5% from those swing equity highs). Broadly speaking risk assets are increasing in correlation and ES is getting dragged lower.

Commodities are struggling as USD strength leaks back into the markets this evening...

It would appear that Gold's relative exuberance on QE hope has reverted and post 5/29 swing highs in stocks it looks like QE-sensitive assets are recoupled for now...

After being led up by ES for a few days, broad risk assets (as proxied by CONTEXT) are now being led back down...

and cross-asset-class correlation is picking up (generally implying a systemic response to either risk-on or risk-off)...

 


 

S&P 500 e-mini futures have almost retraced 38.2% of the bull short-squeeze leg up now...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

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Thu, 06/07/2012 - 22:34 | 2506042 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Gold got mozambiqued...

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 22:39 | 2506050 ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

Gold is more than $30 dollars down in the last few hours. Someone must have pressed the wrong button.

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 22:43 | 2506058 WiretapWilly
WiretapWilly's picture

Red alert!  The populace is becoming resistant to the pro-PM brainwashing!  Need more pumper headline stories on ZH stat!

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:24 | 2506151 PeterLemonJello
PeterLemonJello's picture

Nooooooooooooo, don't worry...just like a tub of goo that feels they have to make a "change" after watching a total gym informercial, just listening to Government officials will snap the PM's back up where they should be.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 00:09 | 2506234 markmotive
markmotive's picture
Peter Schiff: Upcoming Recession Worse Than 2008

Yup - there will be blood in the streets before central banks step up to the plate.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2012/06/05/peter-schiff-upcoming-recession...

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 01:13 | 2506330 fourchan
fourchan's picture

my ounces are just fine and i do mean fine!

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 22:40 | 2506051 SloSquez
SloSquez's picture

Dflation bitch.

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 22:40 | 2506053 SloSquez
SloSquez's picture

Aint It.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 01:15 | 2506333 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I don't know. I think you can call it either inflation or deflation. Doesn't make any difference. Might depend if you eat food or own a house.

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 22:42 | 2506055 WiretapWilly
WiretapWilly's picture

Oh well, you can always rub gold on yer t!tt!es if it goes back to $400/oz.  Presumably there will be some industrial demand that keeps silver above $12 or so, but maybe not.

The only question is when it crashes through $1530, how low does it go?

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 22:52 | 2506071 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Right!  You need to get your head out of the sand.  Gold won't go below $1250oz and silver below $20oz again in our lifetime unless our dumbass elected officials figure out how to get the debt in line, which means they will have to spend A LOT less and start running surpluses.  I think it's safe to say THAT isn't going to happen anytime soon.  More likely is that Bernanke will QE bigtime during the next crash and PM's (and oil) will see new record highs. 

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:28 | 2506163 spdrdr
spdrdr's picture

Meth Man, is that you?

I thought these days you were merely whoring your friend's mother at $8,459 last month....

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:34 | 2506059 Rattling Bones
Rattling Bones's picture

 A wad of chewed bubble gum must have been strategically placed on the house of cards.

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 22:52 | 2506070 shitting_alpha
shitting_alpha's picture

traders, listen up:

buy ES, facebook, AAPL, crude, euro, etc., whatever...

we make a new high for the year before the real party starts.

otherwise, i dare you to get short from here.

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:19 | 2506137 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You dare me? That's funny as shit considering I bought BAC and FB puts at 3:00 this afternoon and am already in the green.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 07:45 | 2506621 shitting_alpha
shitting_alpha's picture

smell that?  that's not road kill.

 

that's your options decaying.  

 

already in the green.   heh heh.  great indicator.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 09:51 | 2506977 shitting_alpha
shitting_alpha's picture

don't worry about FB moving a dollar against you BetaDawg.

 

probably nothing to worry about.

 

fingers crossed.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 10:46 | 2507248 shitting_alpha
shitting_alpha's picture

hey, betadawg....

 

LOL.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 10:50 | 2507268 shitting_alpha
shitting_alpha's picture

where'd ya go, betadawg???

 

you're only 1.50 behind on FB.

 

now i've got my fingers crossed for your BAC trade.

 

probably nothing to worry about.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 10:59 | 2507310 shitting_alpha
shitting_alpha's picture

now you're losing on that BAC short, but don't worry, you're not the first permabear to short a bottom.  

 

hey, that's not client money is it?

 

fingers crossed.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 00:17 | 2506248 chump666
chump666's picture

Quit the crack, turning your mind to mush...

Look Asia starts the corrections, forget Europe it's a write off, no one cares and they have lost brains.  The USD bids started on the Asian open...boom, blew their equities markets south. A slight correction is forming as supports break on most indexes.  We may have a tight range till June passes.  If you are going long have a ten year plan with equities.  No new highs for a long time, you just witnessed the last highs for maybe the next few yrs 3mths back.  Not even Bernanke can do anything, QE3 has to be massive to offset Aisa's meltdown.  Impossible.  A creditor going to the wall will take out America, Europe has already been taken out sans the ECB's mad Mario buying.  Europe is a zombie.  A recession till the great reset when markets can't price anything (goes to zero)...3-6mth time-frame

In the meantime US markets will be short once the supports have been retraced. Maybe a week or so

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 14:39 | 2508185 shitting_alpha
shitting_alpha's picture

"may" ???

 

"maybe" ???

 

LOL

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 22:53 | 2506075 pleseus
pleseus's picture

Tomorrow is going to be ugly.

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 22:57 | 2506084 shitting_alpha
shitting_alpha's picture

trade it, pleseus.

 

and good luck with that.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 01:48 | 2506362 pleseus
pleseus's picture

Your comment was a waste of typing. Your probably the type of person who talks too much.

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 22:57 | 2506089 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Everyday is ugly, regardless.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 02:27 | 2506398 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

It's going to be ugly for gold ... stocks, you never know, they may rally 3% in the last hour of trading.

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:04 | 2506104 adr
adr's picture

So the Fed mouthpieces lied? Did Bernanke leak the real info to his in the know buds so they could set up some epic shorts?

So $5 in oil, 10% in many stocks, and 500 Dow points on nothing but BS. Yep sounds about right.

Hopefully the Dow will break down past 10k by next week.

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:14 | 2506124 shitting_alpha
shitting_alpha's picture

i love it when you guys think the market should go down.

and i just shorted your "hopefully".

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:11 | 2506117 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Cannot imagine day trading this broken market. 

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:23 | 2506147 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Time it right and it's a money machine. May was great, June has been tricky but plenty of opportunities to make money.

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:14 | 2506130 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

If you pay attention, you will find that gold is highly shorted when the Fed speaks. 

There is nothing the Fed fears more than gold going up too fast because it could

spark an exit from the bond market and stocks. Gold has to be driven down before

any QE so that it is not deemed as a safe haven over the dollar.

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:35 | 2506175 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Exactly. The arrogance of the FED is reckless.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 01:25 | 2506343 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

I've asked this question before, but got no answer.  What event(s) might cause a large drop in PM prices (like $1,000/oz) before the, most here would say, inevitable skyrocket.

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:25 | 2506150 blackbeardz
blackbeardz's picture

EWV is the only way to play Asia, a sure bet in the short/longterm.

- unless you have a cure for radiation sickness/energy costs spiralling upward as NPP's remain CLOSED. (hopefully permanently)

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2012/06/162608.html

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:27 | 2506160 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

if even one of those EU fuktards sez 1 word today (fri), somebody should just take him out back and shoot him...

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:37 | 2506180 balz
balz's picture

Is it me or in gold and silver it's the exact same BS as February 29 ?

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:48 | 2506192 UnpatrioticHoarder
UnpatrioticHoarder's picture

Gold slammed $22 in one tick - in 40 seconds.

Nothing to see here folks, move along.

LOL

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:48 | 2506193 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

oil down? that's funny because all local stations hiked a gallon up 30 cents in a few hours to $4 a gallon in SW Chi-Town burbs this evening. M-Fers.

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 23:54 | 2506209 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i was looking for the COTz report and was saddened to see this

Bob Chapman, Publisher Of International Forecaster Newsletter, Dies At 76

he is off on that finalAdventure, now;  restfully, of course...

 


Fri, 06/08/2012 - 00:12 | 2506239 pissing_excellence
pissing_excellence's picture

One number is as good as another these days.  My frog legs are almost done.

http://youtu.be/wbfgVEk-mxQ

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 00:38 | 2506276 chump666
chump666's picture

ah sh*t it begins...the Fed sleight of hand QE3 not to be QE3 trade.

* NY Fed - Swaps with foreign CBs total $500 mln June 6 week, all with ECB.

* Dallas Fed Fisher - USD still dominant world currency, no need for more Fed   easing - DowJones, Reuters.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 02:23 | 2506395 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Gold is crashing whether you like or not. Gold is down $50 over the past few hours. It is a fact. The gold=euro trade is back in style.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 02:40 | 2506412 taraxias
taraxias's picture

What has been never out of style is the idiotic comments you keep putting up. Get it through your stupid brain dead head, none of this propaganda you keep posting here works. Those on here who own physical are holding on tight and accumulating more at these prices.

A lot of folks who show up on here have figured things out. This is not 2008 any more, so stop wasting your fucking time.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 11:15 | 2506843 fuu
fuu's picture

I had some spare time last night so I decided to have a little fun. I grabbed the entire list of your posts from 9/8/11 through yesterday about 7pm eastern. Then I charted your post history against gold.

 

Here is the chart. London PM Fix price on left axis, posts per day on the right axis.

http://i48.tinypic.com/33atqxg.jpg

How was that January holiday?

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 02:31 | 2506403 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

All that and not a word on the gold-euro trade which is quite obvious. It is not because one day is an exception that the rule isn't true. Gold follows the euro almost tick by tick. It is amazing to think that people are selling gold because the euro is going down. It doesn't make one ounce of sense but it is happening.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 02:42 | 2506414 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Gold follows shit.

Gold has been managed in a heavy handed way for almost a year now. Correlations come and go so the money cartel can confuse idiots like you.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 06:07 | 2506526 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

It sure doesn't follow the DXY anymore either.. Ask yourself, why?

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 03:19 | 2506438 dolph9
dolph9's picture

If you have spare cash, use this opportunity to buy more metal.

If you have metal, don't sell.

Keep calm and carry on, folks.  Don't let them defeat you.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 06:06 | 2506523 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

And it doesn't stop. They can MF Global anyone in the commodities market without your consent or knowledge.

Corzinated akin to Bain Capital.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 06:33 | 2506536 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

'...that Gold's relative exuberance on QE hope,,,'

 

But the same day gold rose 4%,  stock markets all around the world fell between 2% and 4%. So QE no longer underpins the stock market? Or was the 4% rise a complete abberation? Can't have it both ways.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 06:52 | 2506553 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

since when is "buying treasuries" risk off? since when is buying gold "risk on"? wtf over. anywho "in praise of diversification." now if only the abortion of the English language would cease and desist. At least pause. Of course i'm one of the finest examples of "refined use of language" myself....

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