August 9 FOMC Meeting Full Minutes: We Came Thiiiiiiis Close To QE3

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Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:09 | 1615798 trade the day
trade the day's picture

Strong dollar bitchez


Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:12 | 1615811 The They
The They's picture

weak banks and treasury market bitchez

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:15 | 1615831 PaperBugsBurn
PaperBugsBurn's picture



Weiiiiiiimar, bitchez!

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 15:36 | 1616205 espirit
espirit's picture

Dollah, gold, oil - all up.  We don't need no stinking QE.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 15:57 | 1616303 Michael
Michael's picture

It's nice to see the Fed will be starting its new currency debasement procedures pretty soon.

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:34 | 1615952 legal eagle
legal eagle's picture

Gold to the Moon Alice!

Tue, 08/30/2011 - 15:10 | 1616080 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

While the focus on QE3 is idiotic in terms of a desire to improve the economy (it hasn't and won't; arguably, it's damaged the economy signifcantly by dampening consumption), I think the assumptions about today's Fed talking points as being dovish are very much off the mark:

  • Fed Considered Doing Nothing, Record Shows
  • Among the policy options Fed policymakers considered were changing the size or composition of the Fed’s balance sheet and reducing the interest rate paid on banks’ excess reserve balances.

    On the other hand, some unnamed members of the committee were in favor of doing nothing.

    “Some participants judged that none of the tools available to the Committee would likely do much to promote a faster economic recovery,” the minutes said.

    Ultimately, members of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest rates, decided to give markets clearer guidance on how long interest rates would continue to hover around zero. Some committee members said they preferred to instead peg interest rates to a specific unemployment rate or inflation rate rather than a calendar date.

    Fed officials had expressed particular concern about “a deterioration in labor market conditions,” and debated what the longer-term consequences of such high and sustained levels of unemployment might be.

    Staffers slightly raised their forecasts for inflation for the rest of this year, indicating that the central bank may be especially unlikely to engage in another round of major asset purchases.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:15 | 1615830 flacon
    flacon's picture

    "economic recovery" LOL! 

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:25 | 1615900 slaughterer
    slaughterer's picture

    "it needs that final deflationary confirmation to launch QE3. That confirmation will have to come in either the ISM, the NFP, or a 15-20% drop in the S&P."

    I am not even sure that the 15-20% drop in the S&P is necessary at this point, given that the Fed does not want people to think that they react immediately to market volatility.   Just a nicely disastrous ISM and/or NFP would do it at this point.  And if either are disastrous, I would not be surprised to see the market rally.   

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:28 | 1615919 trade the day
    trade the day's picture

    sarcasm on regarding the strong dollar bitchez......bitchez

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:11 | 1615806 carbonmutant
    carbonmutant's picture

    Would you believe "Chuck Norris with a BB gun?" M. Smart

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:11 | 1615808 Ese Pinche
    Ese Pinche's picture

    BTFD bitchez!

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:12 | 1615809 Subprime JD
    Subprime JD's picture

    They need to hurry the fuck up with the printathon so we get this current monetary regime over with. Bunch of pussies

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:12 | 1615813 FunkyMonkeyBoy
    FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture


    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:14 | 1615823 carbonmutant
    carbonmutant's picture

    Is that a trick question?

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:17 | 1615844 PaperBugsBurn
    PaperBugsBurn's picture




    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:15 | 1615835 The They
    The They's picture

    What do you mean it doesn't work!? my PM holdings have risen dramatically since the QE I!

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:16 | 1615840 Racer
    Racer's picture

    Of course it works

    QE = Rich richer and poor poorer

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:17 | 1615850 NotApplicable
    NotApplicable's picture

    Neither does fractional-reserve central banking. However, this does not seem to stop them from trying.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:25 | 1615893 TruthInSunshine
    TruthInSunshine's picture

    The goal for the next 20 odd days is to baffle with bullshit, apparently.



    FOMC: Some members thought more stimulus could boost inflation risk

    08-30 14:07: FOMC: Some members thought more stimulus could boost inflation risk

    FOMC says some participants judged none of the tools available were likely to do much to support the US economic recovery

    08-30 14:07: FOMC says some participants judged none of the tools available were...


    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:51 | 1616025 Spaceman Spiff
    Spaceman Spiff's picture

    They seem to want to keep a holding pattern until september thus the baffling with bullshit...  too bad for retail investors who are in a 'tilt-a-whirl' market.   No getting off this rollercoaster, just vomit in front of the monitors.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:19 | 1615856 Id fight Gandhi
    Id fight Gandhi's picture

    Of course inflation is transitory when you stop easing, the assets crash. But any qe3 would have ro be at least a trillion to get this market to new highs.

    Fuck the poor, they will see even more job losses due to poor economic conditions and higher commodity prices.

    Qe2 = Arab spring. Good job guys.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:27 | 1615912 NotApplicable
    NotApplicable's picture

    At some point they will give up on the idea of new highs, instead hoping to keep it flat as the gamblers all seek to cash in their chips.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 15:16 | 1616104 Mauibrad
    Mauibrad's picture

    It doesn't work, but they have to do it until their paradigm fails.  Fisher is the only one with balls in that group.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 16:02 | 1616319 Waffen
    Waffen's picture

    QE works.  It sends my Gold and Silver Up..  I am begging for QE3.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:13 | 1615822 Barry McBear
    Barry McBear's picture

    Good summary, thanks Tyler.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:15 | 1615828 shushup
    shushup's picture

    What a fucking waste of time!

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:15 | 1615829 Dave Thomas
    Dave Thomas's picture

    No whammies, no whammies... STOP!

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:28 | 1615918 NotApplicable
    NotApplicable's picture


    And it's likely that well thought out.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:15 | 1615832 IMA5U
    IMA5U's picture

    ok.  i get it now.   data will be awful.  but beware QE3 if you want to short this market.  so don't even try doing it despite what the data says.



    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:28 | 1615921 --Freedom--
    --Freedom--'s picture

    But for the shorters out there, won't we need a serious drop in the s and p before qe 3? I don't buy Tylers take that a bad Nfp will be enough for qe3 unless it is accompanied by a big decline in the markets.
    So, I'm still banking on a decline this week or next.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:39 | 1615974 john39
    john39's picture

    the current plan of just dangling the prospect of more QE seems just as effective as actually announcing a plan.  so why bother so long as the market thinks its just around the corner?  they can play this game for some time before the market figures the game out.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 15:02 | 1616055 --Freedom--
    --Freedom--'s picture

    Maybe, but is the market really this stupid? Can't someone program the machines to know that they won't get a qe3 unless they start selling?
    Or is there something else at play here? Maybe they know they can't do qe3 anytime soon, so the idea is just to keep dangling it to keep the markets afloat for a while.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 15:52 | 1616244 caerus
    caerus's picture

    this is imo a normal reaction to the decline in the ES from 8/2 to 8/8...if one were to accept the technical interpretation of the ES from jan through july 2011 as a 7 month h&s that broke on 8/8, then he would expect a roughly (1360-1240=120) point decline before a reaction...ES bounced around (1240-120=1120) would then expect a possible retest of the neckline as resistance, most likely followed by the real decline...volume throughout seems to confirm...

    of course there are many who would disagree...just an opinion

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:15 | 1615833 ??
    ??'s picture

    and here we go

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:16 | 1615843 Id fight Gandhi
    Id fight Gandhi's picture

    So is this end of month melt up hedges just fluffing or a front run for sept meeting?

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:17 | 1615847 TradingJoe
    TradingJoe's picture

    ...must close greeeeeennnn.....must make bonnuuussseeesssss....:))))

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:18 | 1615852 SumSUN
    SumSUN's picture

    $2,000 gold.... preposterous. 

    $10,000 gold... not so much.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:19 | 1615854 espirit
    espirit's picture

    Markets are doing fine without QE, that is of course taking into account the dollah has to go to zero.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:19 | 1615855 trampstamp
    trampstamp's picture

    Bottom line: the Fed knows the economy is contracting, but it needs that final deflationary confirmation to launch QE3. That confirmation will have to come in either the ISM, the NFP, or a 15-20% drop in the S&P.


    Sounds more to me that commodity prices need to come down more no?

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:19 | 1615858 Cognitive Dissonance
    Cognitive Dissonance's picture

    Missed my crack hit by >this< much. Damn you Fed dissenters, damn you to hell.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:22 | 1615883 The They
    The They's picture

    Don't worry.  They're just warming up the pipe for you first. give it time...

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:24 | 1615894 Ese Pinche
    Ese Pinche's picture

    This market is way WAY short.. you still might catch a rock wiff or two, to the tune of a hard squeeze.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:30 | 1615931 Subprime JD
    Subprime JD's picture


    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:19 | 1615859 sasebo
    sasebo's picture

    And what does all this meaningless gobbly gook (asset purches, accomodation, Systems portfolio, easing financial conditions, stronger forward guidance, etc) mean? Its all just a bunch of stupid elitist asshole bullshit.

    They think that the best way to get the real economy going is to print more paper money. That's it!!!!!! 

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:23 | 1615887 HelluvaEngineer
    HelluvaEngineer's picture

    They don't care about the "real economy".  Hell, they don't even know what that means.

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:34 | 1615947 Dave Thomas
    Dave Thomas's picture

    I don't think from reading the minutes they even know. I mean look at it. They are rattling off symptopms, symptoms of a disease they refuse to acknowledge. It's like knowing the patient has a huge tear in a blood vessle somewhere, but to keep blood pressure up, they keep pumping blood in.


    Paging Dr Keynes, Dr Keynes!



    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 17:05 | 1616602 bid the soldier...
    bid the soldiers shoot's picture

    as long as the express keeps stopping at 72nd street, I'm not complaining...

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:21 | 1615874 rubearish10
    rubearish10's picture

    Run-up to September 21st, because everyone wants to get in front. IS it that simple? YES! Anything (bad) could happen between now and then, hence, even more QE, so no lose play. Heyyyyyyyyyyyy!

    Tue, 08/30/2011 - 14:23 | 1615885 mechawreck2
    mechawreck2's picture

    Two days is not sufficient...  the Members should convene daily when the market is open.  Stick a Bloomberg in front of each and just set the right prices every minute already.

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