August ADP Private Payrolls At 91K On Expectations Of 100K, Down From Revised 109K

Tyler Durden's picture

The perpetually wrong ADP report for August has come, printing at 91K, on expectations of 100K, and down from a downward revised 109K (previously 114K). How much of a leading indicator to Friday's NFP this is is anyone's guess: historically the ADP's error factor has been between -100% and +100%. Also as a reminder, the report does not account for the Verizon employee strike which impacted initial claims last week and which according to Goldman will likely be an addition downward wildcard in Friday's NFP.

According to the report "Employment in the service-providing sector rose by 80,000 in August, marking 20 consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose by 11,000 in August, up from a loss of 2,000 jobs last month. Manufacturing employment slipped 4,000 in August. Employment on small payrolls (up to 49 workers) rose 58,000 in August, almost equal to that of last month. Employment on medium payrolls (50 to 499 workers) rose 30,000, while employment on large payrolls (500 or more workers) created only 3,000 jobs." More importantly, employment in the construction industry rose 7,000 in August, following three consecutive monthly declines, bringing the total decrease in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 to 2,128,000. Employment in the financial services sector remained essentially unchanged in August. The total decrease in financial services employment for the same period remains 687,000. This is particularly amusing considering that everyone knows by now that Wall Street plans to shed a massive amount of people. We are confident that despite the miss this report will be dead wrong as usual when predicting the actual even more manipulated NFP. But futures are up on the news which is all that matters.

Breakdown of private payrolls data:

And charting:

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cossack55's picture

Does ADP work for S&P or Moody's. 

slaughterer's picture

Remember, we are in the "inverted world" (Hegel) of pre-QE3-decision trading where all bad news is good for the market, and all good news is bad, mostly.   From this perspective, ADP was bad, but maybe "not bad enough" and bulls will need ISM and jobs report to get the Fed to the "action zone."

DormRoom's picture

it's typical front running.  Obama fiscal stimulus announcement after Labor Day.  Possible Fed intervention Sept. 21.   Europe seems more stable. you don't want to miss out on a 20-30% pop on your portfolio. buy the rumor, sell the news.

sun tzu's picture

Good luck getting the republicans in congress to sign on to another $1 trillion stimulus. They had a tough enough time getting it done with the democrats in charge of congress

ElvisDog's picture

Thank you for pointing that out sun tzu (so I'm not the only one who does). Obama stimulus is DOA so soon after the debt ceiling confrontation. Not to mention the fact that it would do nothing because it would merely continue programs and policies that are currently in place.

Ahwooga's picture

See that's where youre wrong. Bad news is good for the market. Good news is bad for the market for approximately 1/3 of the previous up move, then is used to justify the next leg up due to "ongoing recovery." All news is good for the market.

becky quick and her beautiful mouth's picture

cnbs spinning this as great news. the layoffs are slowing!

Sudden Debt's picture

That's because once we hit a 0% employment rate, WE CAN ONLY GO UP! = RALLY!!

Careless Whisper's picture

The Morning Careless Whisper Report

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Homeland Security Swat Teams Gibson Guitar Factory In Tennessee; Green Police Question Fancy Wood

She's OK; Justin Bieber And Ferrari In Fender Bender



DefiantSurf's picture

"Stabbed With Knife 11 Times - Police Say It Was Suicide" that is simply hilarious !

snowball777's picture

If at first you don't succeed,...

DeadFred's picture

He must have been very depressed. How sad.

andybev01's picture

So, did he shoot himself before of after he hit the water?

That's dedication right there.

Iriestx's picture

As funny as it sounds, almost all suicide by stabbing have several stabs.  You'll find a number of "hesitation wounds" from when the person starts stabbing themselves, but due to pain & fear they don't drive the knife in far enough to make it count.  It's usually after about half a dozen or so hesitation wounds that they start driving in the knife deep enough to inflict a mortal injury.


When somebody is murdered by stabbing there are no hesitation wounds.  The attacker either makes the first attempts deep and punishing stabs, or you'll see a situation where the person tries to deflect the stabs, resulting in deep cuts on the forearms and hands, in addition to the deep, punishing stab wounds.

adr's picture

I told my mother a while ago that by the time my son is my age he will be outnumbered at least 5-1. How will we have a country when you have over 300 million people on welfare.

When the average black girl has three kids by the time she is 25 and the hispanics aren't far behind you have an exponential growth problem. The new baby boom has been financed by free checks from the US government.

I couldn't afford to have three kids but somehow a welfare queen can afford to have five and still have enough left over cash to get her hair did every week. Unless welfare is severely cut back we will have a China problem very soon. By 2030 the black and hispanic populations will triple from the current levels. We'll have a billion welfare cases without any trouble. When you pay peple to have kids that is what you get.

The article says it all. The growth bomb of the minorities in Richmond, VA has enabled democrats to take control of a historicaly republican stronghold.

Democratic control of cities has worked out so well in the past. Maybe people will get it once the entire country looks like Detroit. Problem is by that time it will be too late. People think Johnson didn't know what he was doing when he launched the Great Society. He knew exactly what he was doing. He was securing the future for his party. Within 50 years it would become impossible for a conservative to ever get elected again. Just like the Detroit school board the minority in charge will have free reign to steal as much as they can.

sun tzu's picture

The head of the Detroit school district was also illiterate. What a fucking joke.

tiger7905's picture

Also the new bird flu vaccine resistant H5N1 variant moving into India...

razorthin's picture

And the market screams, "QE Bichez!"

trampstamp's picture

Bullish as she goes

Racer's picture

Great news for the rich.... more QE

Bad news for the 99% of the rest of the population

cossack55's picture

The rich taste better with a little Chicago Steak Sauce sprinkled over them when roasting.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Yep.  It is far too late to tax the rich in order to save the country, might as well fatten them up so we can eat them later.

andybev01's picture

Thankfully they already live in herds in gated communities.

No round-up needed.

sun tzu's picture

Which means any family with over $250K of income.

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

It could be allot worse, of course it could be allot better. Rally into mediocrity!

Cdad's picture

This is a syndicate driven markup...not a rally.  I think it is time for all of us to start using the proper vocabulary.

Cdad's picture

Fascinating...hearing the head of AT&T literally tell the world [and the lemmings on the Street], that he is "standing down."  The destroyed economy is not lost on him, equity markups aside.  No plans for hiring.  Probably layoffs in the works.

As we watch the economy collapse at a rate equal to the imploding of the equity market's credibility, so too are we watching the death of a network.  Go BlowHorn [CNBC].  Let's just put the last nail in the coffin and be done with YOU.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

This month can't end soon enough.

Mike2756's picture

That's a narrow margin of error, lol.

IMA5U's picture

The market does not care right now. Global short squeeze coordination on no volume

-Michelle-'s picture

How do striking employees get to claim unemployment pay?

snowball777's picture

They've doesn't mean they'll see dime one of benefits.

How can Verizon employ retirees and management as scabs?

sun tzu's picture

Verizon needs to hold a job fair. 

snowball777's picture

To replace their overcompensated executives.

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

"Stocks advance on prospect of QE3" as the circle bloomjerkers would announce. But if stocks advance, the dollar index falls to below 73. Therefore QE3 implemented in those circumstances destroys the dollar and unleashes very high inflation and social unrest and all the other consequences. 

The system cannot survive without QE3 or the prospect of, but unless the Dollar Index rises, QE3 cripples the system as well. 

Central Planners hurt my head. I need a drink.

Josh Randall's picture

Bad Weather B!tchez

MoneyWise's picture

Considering complete Mess in August, ADP numbers are

Good in terms of (Could be much worse)

mess nonster's picture

Aye! It's only a flesh wound!

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

obuma got elected says all that needs be said about are his #1 focus while his adm does all it can to destroy private business like gibson..stop plants being built stop coal being burned - the vile elite have gone mad and will take us all down.

connda's picture

That should be good for a +1% market melt-up on non-existant volume.

disabledvet's picture

Heads up is the prez wondering where all the highway workers are. Guess theycreated the infrastructure bank a little early. Wonder what infrastructure is actually gonna get built. Hmmmmm.

DefiantSurf's picture

somebody needs to build the FEMA camps before they cutoff the bridge cards


Everybodys All American's picture

It needs to be stated over and over again by all of us that we get the FED's game now. The game is QE will never end. A never ending QE will ruin us all and that is there chosen course of action. Tell all of your friends and enemies alike because the only thing that will stop them at this point is when the general public says no.

LawsofPhysics's picture

The general public has been saying no for quite some time now.  Doesn't fucking  matter, the rape continues and it won't stop until the last drop of oil, coal, and natural gas are recovered and burned.  It is what it is, same as it ever was.

 hedge accordingly. 

Everybodys All American's picture

I disagree and I believe most of the public don't even understand that the FED is not a government entity.