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August ADP Private Payrolls At 91K On Expectations Of 100K, Down From Revised 109K

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The perpetually wrong ADP report for August has come, printing at 91K, on expectations of 100K, and down from a downward revised 109K (previously 114K). How much of a leading indicator to Friday's NFP this is is anyone's guess: historically the ADP's error factor has been between -100% and +100%. Also as a reminder, the report does not account for the Verizon employee strike which impacted initial claims last week and which according to Goldman will likely be an addition downward wildcard in Friday's NFP.

According to the report "Employment in the service-providing sector rose by 80,000 in August, marking 20 consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose by 11,000 in August, up from a loss of 2,000 jobs last month. Manufacturing employment slipped 4,000 in August. Employment on small payrolls (up to 49 workers) rose 58,000 in August, almost equal to that of last month. Employment on medium payrolls (50 to 499 workers) rose 30,000, while employment on large payrolls (500 or more workers) created only 3,000 jobs." More importantly, employment in the construction industry rose 7,000 in August, following three consecutive monthly declines, bringing the total decrease in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 to 2,128,000. Employment in the financial services sector remained essentially unchanged in August. The total decrease in financial services employment for the same period remains 687,000. This is particularly amusing considering that everyone knows by now that Wall Street plans to shed a massive amount of people. We are confident that despite the miss this report will be dead wrong as usual when predicting the actual even more manipulated NFP. But futures are up on the news which is all that matters.

Breakdown of private payrolls data:

And charting:

 

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Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:28 | 1618356 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Does ADP work for S&P or Moody's. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:36 | 1618372 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Remember, we are in the "inverted world" (Hegel) of pre-QE3-decision trading where all bad news is good for the market, and all good news is bad, mostly.   From this perspective, ADP was bad, but maybe "not bad enough" and bulls will need ISM and jobs report to get the Fed to the "action zone."

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:51 | 1618415 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

it's typical front running.  Obama fiscal stimulus announcement after Labor Day.  Possible Fed intervention Sept. 21.   Europe seems more stable. you don't want to miss out on a 20-30% pop on your portfolio. buy the rumor, sell the news.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:28 | 1618543 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Good luck getting the republicans in congress to sign on to another $1 trillion stimulus. They had a tough enough time getting it done with the democrats in charge of congress

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:25 | 1618974 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Thank you for pointing that out sun tzu (so I'm not the only one who does). Obama stimulus is DOA so soon after the debt ceiling confrontation. Not to mention the fact that it would do nothing because it would merely continue programs and policies that are currently in place.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:13 | 1618497 Ahwooga
Ahwooga's picture

See that's where youre wrong. Bad news is good for the market. Good news is bad for the market for approximately 1/3 of the previous up move, then is used to justify the next leg up due to "ongoing recovery." All news is good for the market.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:29 | 1618359 becky quick and...
becky quick and her beautiful mouth's picture

cnbs spinning this as great news. the layoffs are slowing!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:49 | 1618409 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Ghandi has almost reached his goal weight!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:04 | 1618470 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

That's because once we hit a 0% employment rate, WE CAN ONLY GO UP! = RALLY!!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:29 | 1618360 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

The Morning Careless Whisper Report

AT&T Promises To Bring Back 5,000 Jobs From Offshore If T-Mobile Merger Approved: New Location Of Jobs Not Announced

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_TEC_ATT_T_MOBILE_JOBS?SITE=PAP...

Yo, My Caucasian! You Are A Minority In 42 Big Cities

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/minorities-become-a-majority-in-wash...

Bonn, Germany Imposes Tax On Sex: 6 Euros Per Night

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,783438,00.html

Chinese Anti-Corruption Official Found Dead; Stabbed With Knife 11 Times - Police Say It Was Suicide

http://english.eastday.com/e/110831/u1a6081211.html

Detroit Hospital Employees Forced To Get The Needle

http://www.detnews.com/article/20110831/BIZ/108310390/Hospital-workers’-choice--Flu-shots-or-ax

Florida Cop Turns Fugitive; Still Gets Paycheck While On Paid Leave

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/palm-beach/boynton-beach/fl-britto-miss...

Homeland Security Swat Teams Gibson Guitar Factory In Tennessee; Green Police Question Fancy Wood

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GDc3rteCwM

She's OK; Justin Bieber And Ferrari In Fender Bender

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/128713103.html

 

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:33 | 1618364 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

"Stabbed With Knife 11 Times - Police Say It Was Suicide" that is simply hilarious !

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:49 | 1618412 snowball777
snowball777's picture

If at first you don't succeed,...

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:39 | 1618574 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

He must have been very depressed. How sad.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:58 | 1618620 Urban Roman
Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:50 | 1618813 andybev01
andybev01's picture

So, did he shoot himself before of after he hit the water?

That's dedication right there.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 17:44 | 1620687 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

As funny as it sounds, almost all suicide by stabbing have several stabs.  You'll find a number of "hesitation wounds" from when the person starts stabbing themselves, but due to pain & fear they don't drive the knife in far enough to make it count.  It's usually after about half a dozen or so hesitation wounds that they start driving in the knife deep enough to inflict a mortal injury.

 

When somebody is murdered by stabbing there are no hesitation wounds.  The attacker either makes the first attempts deep and punishing stabs, or you'll see a situation where the person tries to deflect the stabs, resulting in deep cuts on the forearms and hands, in addition to the deep, punishing stab wounds.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:01 | 1618457 adr
adr's picture

I told my mother a while ago that by the time my son is my age he will be outnumbered at least 5-1. How will we have a country when you have over 300 million people on welfare.

When the average black girl has three kids by the time she is 25 and the hispanics aren't far behind you have an exponential growth problem. The new baby boom has been financed by free checks from the US government.

I couldn't afford to have three kids but somehow a welfare queen can afford to have five and still have enough left over cash to get her hair did every week. Unless welfare is severely cut back we will have a China problem very soon. By 2030 the black and hispanic populations will triple from the current levels. We'll have a billion welfare cases without any trouble. When you pay peple to have kids that is what you get.

The article says it all. The growth bomb of the minorities in Richmond, VA has enabled democrats to take control of a historicaly republican stronghold.

Democratic control of cities has worked out so well in the past. Maybe people will get it once the entire country looks like Detroit. Problem is by that time it will be too late. People think Johnson didn't know what he was doing when he launched the Great Society. He knew exactly what he was doing. He was securing the future for his party. Within 50 years it would become impossible for a conservative to ever get elected again. Just like the Detroit school board the minority in charge will have free reign to steal as much as they can.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:31 | 1618554 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

The head of the Detroit school district was also illiterate. What a fucking joke.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:05 | 1618475 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Also the new bird flu vaccine resistant H5N1 variant moving into India...

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=1598

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:08 | 1618675 Shash
Shash's picture

Fuck China!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:31 | 1618361 razorthin
razorthin's picture

And the market screams, "QE Bichez!"

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:32 | 1618362 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

Bullish as she goes

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:32 | 1618363 Racer
Racer's picture

Great news for the rich.... more QE

Bad news for the 99% of the rest of the population

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:35 | 1618371 cossack55
cossack55's picture

The rich taste better with a little Chicago Steak Sauce sprinkled over them when roasting.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:51 | 1618418 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yep.  It is far too late to tax the rich in order to save the country, might as well fatten them up so we can eat them later.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:53 | 1618827 andybev01
andybev01's picture

Thankfully they already live in herds in gated communities.

No round-up needed.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:32 | 1618557 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Which means any family with over $250K of income.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:34 | 1618365 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

It could be allot worse, of course it could be allot better. Rally into mediocrity!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:37 | 1618378 Cdad
Cdad's picture

This is a syndicate driven markup...not a rally.  I think it is time for all of us to start using the proper vocabulary.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:38 | 1618383 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

touche

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:30 | 1618391 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Fascinating...hearing the head of AT&T literally tell the world [and the lemmings on the Street], that he is "standing down."  The destroyed economy is not lost on him, equity markups aside.  No plans for hiring.  Probably layoffs in the works.

As we watch the economy collapse at a rate equal to the imploding of the equity market's credibility, so too are we watching the death of a network.  Go BlowHorn [CNBC].  Let's just put the last nail in the coffin and be done with YOU.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:43 | 1618394 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

This month can't end soon enough.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:34 | 1618366 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

That's a narrow margin of error, lol.

 

http://youtu.be/qRa9uhiAPBs

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:34 | 1618368 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

The market does not care right now. Global short squeeze coordination on no volume

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:36 | 1618373 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

How do striking employees get to claim unemployment pay?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:56 | 1618432 snowball777
snowball777's picture

They've applied...it doesn't mean they'll see dime one of benefits.

How can Verizon employ retirees and management as scabs?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:58 | 1618447 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Ask Boss Tweed.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:34 | 1618560 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Verizon needs to hold a job fair. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:38 | 1618572 snowball777
snowball777's picture

To replace their overcompensated executives.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:36 | 1618375 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

"Stocks advance on prospect of QE3" as the circle bloomjerkers would announce. But if stocks advance, the dollar index falls to below 73. Therefore QE3 implemented in those circumstances destroys the dollar and unleashes very high inflation and social unrest and all the other consequences. 

The system cannot survive without QE3 or the prospect of, but unless the Dollar Index rises, QE3 cripples the system as well. 

Central Planners hurt my head. I need a drink.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:36 | 1618377 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Bad Weather B!tchez

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:42 | 1618392 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

Considering complete Mess in August, ADP numbers are

Good in terms of (Could be much worse)

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:58 | 1618446 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Aye! It's only a flesh wound!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:44 | 1618396 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

obuma got elected says all that needs be said about America..jobs are his #1 focus while his adm does all it can to destroy private business like gibson..stop plants being built stop coal being burned - the vile elite have gone mad and will take us all down.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:47 | 1618406 connda
connda's picture

That should be good for a +1% market melt-up on non-existant volume.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:48 | 1618407 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Heads up is the prez wondering where all the highway workers are. Guess theycreated the infrastructure bank a little early. Wonder what infrastructure is actually gonna get built. Hmmmmm.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:54 | 1618427 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

somebody needs to build the FEMA camps before they cutoff the bridge cards

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:49 | 1618410 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

It needs to be stated over and over again by all of us that we get the FED's game now. The game is QE will never end. A never ending QE will ruin us all and that is there chosen course of action. Tell all of your friends and enemies alike because the only thing that will stop them at this point is when the general public says no.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:56 | 1618434 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The general public has been saying no for quite some time now.  Doesn't fucking  matter, the rape continues and it won't stop until the last drop of oil, coal, and natural gas are recovered and burned.  It is what it is, same as it ever was.

 hedge accordingly. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:02 | 1618463 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I disagree and I believe most of the public don't even understand that the FED is not a government entity.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:29 | 1618549 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

And dont care so long as they get thier check and free food.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:40 | 1618578 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Bullshit.  If you count all those SNAP recipients you get about 15% of the population.  You are ignoring 85% of the population.   I see many, even on SS or unemployment benefits that still believe they are "rich" and percieve that they still have a lot to lose if more QE proceeds.  Yeah, they are idiots, but this is precisely the right attitude albeit for the somewhat wrong reasons.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:31 | 1618555 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Can't end.  There is noone stupid enough to buy or debt and there is some real concern about the Ft Knox Gold reserve sham.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:56 | 1618433 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Silver has just gotten loose - $42/oz from $41.40/oz. Is this gold/silver starting to price in a greater likelihood of additional QE due to the miss on the ADP ?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:56 | 1618437 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

Back in the 70's there would have been some lunatic with a rifle double tapping the Bernank, now we just eat ipads and gold

Sometimes I miss the old days....

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:03 | 1618467 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Ah, yes, those simpler times, when all one needed for real fun was a plastic 45 rpm converter centerpiece and a nickel bag of acapulco gold.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:58 | 1618448 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Must Make Them Bonuses! Must Close In The Green! Last Day!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:59 | 1618452 digalert
digalert's picture

CNBS Kernon:

"guarantee the WH attacks Texas jobs"

The Bamster can't run on his, ahem, record, so they'll go after Perry and Texas jobs. The dems will pull out their Bama autographed Rules for Radicals and attack.

NewsFlash: Here's the DNC regimes jobs plan...ATTACK!

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:02 | 1618461 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

lol, the Obama jobs plan is to offer free bus tickets to Texas...

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:05 | 1618472 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

...from Chihuahua?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:40 | 1618579 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I suppose even the Soviet Union had 5-year plans, but "Obama" and "jobs plan" in the same sentence... he must be referring to taxing SME even further disproportionately high, to bailout failed insider friends.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:07 | 1618479 snowball777
snowball777's picture

You mean those public sector jobs in Texas?

47% of all government jobs added in the US between 2007 and 2010 were added in Texas.

-178k private sector

+125k public sector

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:02 | 1618460 ben_bernanke
ben_bernanke's picture

Didn't "Tyler" predict a -700K print? Epic fail.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:03 | 1618466 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

Put the crack pipe down and step away from it, the -700k is for the NFP report on Friday asshat, ADP is not worth spit

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:17 | 1618510 Ahwooga
Ahwooga's picture

Good gravy. Try reading the news with an open mind, rather than letting it tell you what you want to hear.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:43 | 1618581 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

The pace of home sales seems likely to remain sluggish for a time, partly as a result of some tightening in lending standards, and the recent increase in mortgage interest rates. Sales should ultimately be supported by growth in income and employment, as well as by mortgage rates that, despite the recent increase, remain fairly low relative to historical norms. However, even if demand stabilizes as we expect, the pace of construction will probably fall somewhat further, as builders work down the stocks of unsold new homes. Thus, declines in residential construction will likely continue to weigh on economic growth in coming quarters, although the magnitude of the drag on growth should diminish over time. The global economy continues to be strong, supported by solid economic growth abroad. U.S. exports should expand further in coming quarters. Overall, the U.S. economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over the second half of 2007, with growth then strengthening a bit in 2008 to a rate close to the economy's underlying trend.

-Ben Bernanke, July 2007.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:04 | 1618469 pacdm
pacdm's picture

Yes good news more reason to give bankers and the super rich more free money IE QE3 and let realy people pay for it 

fack the fed,also the people at cnbc (good report etc. etc.) so the market goes up great

let me pay my bills on that news.

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:07 | 1618477 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

QE infinity is here.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:09 | 1618482 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Thak God I'm on the Farm payroll. All 'you'un's gotta eat.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:13 | 1618689 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Enjoy those subsidies while they last and thank your local rep for those foodstamps while you're at it. We'd hate to see you dumping whatever you grow in a ditch for lack of customers.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:11 | 1618491 sbenard
sbenard's picture

But Wall St LIKES it!

If we had a -2% GDP print and 400,000 job losses, perhaps we could get a 1000-point rally in the Dow!

The worse the news, the more Wall St likes it! They must be figuring that the more awful the news, the more likely the Fed will print chaos!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:20 | 1618514 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

CNBC is saying that this is a good report, even though it came in below expectations and even though it's less than the last several months of ADP lies.

Amazing.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:22 | 1618523 Rikky
Rikky's picture

Y'all need to take off your tinfoil hats as it pertains to ADP.  The report is based upon REAL payroll data sampled from 500k+ firms.  You can't get more accurate than that in terms of a dataset.  The problem here is two fold.  You have Macroeconomic Advisors who actually writes the algorithms and frankly doesn't know what the h*ck they're doing in my opinion.  Second you can't compare this to the BLS report as the algorithms, data used, assumption, etc. are completely different.  They shouldn't necessarily correlate but should at least show a trend.  The Street does use both as indicators in their analysis.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:24 | 1618530 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Looks like Trichet and LeGarde are in a tiff over whether the band should play "Nearer My God to Thee" or "Highway to Hell" as the last song of the sinking Euro-Titanic. Oh. I mean whether to use EFSF to prop up liquidity or to use it to just give money directly to the banks as a recapitalization gambit. Oh. I mean QE. ...by any other name it stinks like...

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

More QE indeed. Buy gold until the tipping point...which is...wait...don't look back!

And why not? QE3 will give a bounce ...as soon as it is over the economy will begin to sag again, at which time QE4 will be announced, giving a smaller bounce, and so on... this will go on as long as there are Doritos and Mtn. Dew and X-box. The tipping point will be when these items disappear.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:28 | 1618544 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Doesnt matter if the news is good or bad in the circus, all that matters is that Ben will fuel the helicopter shortly.  This is utter madness!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 02:33 | 1621911 seoerlin
seoerlin's picture

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shacai's picture

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