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On Austerity, Unrest, And Quantifying Chaos

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Politically speaking, austerity is a challenge. While we would expect that governments imposing spending cuts on their voting public may face electability issues, in fact, a recent paper from the Center for Economic Policy Research finds that there is no empirical evidence to confirm this - i.e. a budget-cutting government is no less likely to be re-relected than a spend-heavy government. However, what the CEPR paper does find as a factor in delaying austerity is much more worrisome - a fear of instability and unrest. The authors found a very clear relationship between CHAOS (their variable name for demonstrations, riots, strikes and worse) and expenditure cuts. As JPMorgan notes, austerity sounds straightforward as a policy, until the consequences bite. It remains unclear that the road Europe is taking is less costly in the long run, in economic, political and social terms. The history of Europe over the last 100 years shows that austerity can have severe consequences and outcomes and perhaps most notably, the independent variable that did result in more unrest: higher levels of government debt in the first place.

The passage through time of the author's CHAOS factor shows that since 1994 we have had relative stability but given the ongoing austerity that is being forced (rightfully) upon the most indebted nations in Europe, it is perhaps no longer an issue of electability as technocrats roam freely and much more one of central stability and fear of the empirical link between austerity and anarchy.

 

JPMorgan recently noted this study:

The authors tested to see if results varied with ethnic fragmentation, inflation, penetration of mass media and the quality of government institutions; they did not. Results are also consistent across time, covering interwar and postwar periods.

 

The independent variable that did result in more unrest: higher levels of government debt in the first place.

 

Compounding the problem is the way some decisions are being taken, which may reinforce perceptions of a "democratic deficit" at the EU level, an issue highlighted by Germany’s Constitutional Court. It remains to be seen if Europe can sustain cohesion around its path of most resistance. One sign of rising tensions: the following (staggering) comment by the head of the Bank of France: "A downgrade does not appear to me to be justified when considering economic fundamentals," Noyer said. "Otherwise, they should start by downgrading Britain which has more deficits, as much debt, more inflation, less growth than us and where credit is slumping." At a time of increasing budgetary pressures and declining growth, I suppose there are limits to European solidarity.

The full paper can be found below:

Austerity And Anarchy

 


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Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:11 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

http://exiledonline.com/austerity-and-bloodbaths-historical-graph-shows-...

This is also what Nietzsche's "will to power" wished to be. Philosophy is not Besinnen but struggle. And this struggle has no end and will have no end. The kingdom of God, as it is written, is attained through violence.-Lev Shestov

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:21 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Three hours with Chris Hedges ... and he takes questions...

http://www.c-span.org/Events/In-Depth-with-Author-and-Journalist-Chris-Hedges/10737426679-1/

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:24 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Weird, I have that open in a tab right now. Stunning stuff eh? 

Boxing Minister....too interesting and highly reccomended.

ori

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 15:07 | Link to Comment eureka
eureka's picture

Anyone here who appreciate people like Marc Faber and Jim Rogers knows and understands that losses and bankruptcies are part of capitalism - and good for the markets and the populations - and should not be obstructed by QE etc which only keeps the incompetent and the manipulators in "power".

So please, stop whining about austerity while simultaneously being against money "printing" abd the FED and for gold and silver money etc etc etc

I say bring it on - AUSTERITY AND INTELLECTUAL FIGHTS - RIGHT NOW.

It's that - or surrender to the Elite, fiat money, the US FED and Military Empire etc. 

IT IS NOT COMPLEX, BITCHEZ - IT's a MATTER OF FOLLOWING PRINCIPLES - AND THE US CONSTITUTION - OR NOT.

http://www.infowars.com/ron-pauls-iowa-finish-biggest-fraud-since-kenned...

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment TheAkashicRecord
TheAkashicRecord's picture

watched yesterday, great stuff, doesn't watch tv and reads 3-4 hours a night, look at what happens when you are not pacified 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:22 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Holy smoke Gene. That link is a crazy rabbit hole. 

The kingdom of an Angry God may be gained through violence, but that is such a sad, retro, Saturnian perspective. The way is not forward, that would be too easy, the way is UP.

En-lightened takes on a whole new purse-pective there. ;-)

As for Austerity Vs. Chaos, the difference thsi time around is TV. TV and the Church Industry. THe great pacifiers. Both have a Bull-y Pulpit.

Axiomatically, the poorer east will farre better in austere times. In fact, we are currently in them and have been for ever, the recent credit-wealth bloat being consumed by runaway, biting inflation and choices galore on how to lose what you earn.

Never learn.

ori

/2012-the-year-of-anomaly/

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:39 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

ORI,

In its famous paradox, the equation of money and excrement, psychoanalysis becomes the first science to state what common sense and the poets have long known - that the essence of money is in its absolute worthlessness.
Norman O. Brown

I neither worship at the Money Temple nor the Thanatos Cult of bullets as you already know but here we are ORI, it's either a globally coordinated debt forgiveness fest or we start the destruction.

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:43 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Indeed Gene, here we are. people say bullets, beans and band-aid, I say how about grace, gentlenes and generosity.

ori

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:45 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Won't happen.  Humans are scorpions.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:48 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

The reptilian core, fed by enough stimulus (violence, alcohol, flashing lights, auditory overload) is definitely on the ascendent Redpill.

ori

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 15:08 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Lucky the Russkies have been putting fluoride in everyone's water.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:14 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

>>>I say how about grace, gentlenes and generosity.<<<

 

From the criminal psychopaths who designed and executed this bout of financial terrorism that has in fact resulted in death?

BWAHAHAHA!!!

Dream on...

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:55 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

 

"The masses in highly industrialized countries like England, the United States, or France are largely de-Christianized. Technology, and the way of life it produces, undermines Christianity far more effectively than do violent measures." -   --  Czeslaw Milosz

Do you get it yet? It has gone past the mind and into the nerves and flesh. You can easily just simply say "de-Spiritualized". Machinery, task performance, production: IMPACT THE WORLD!!! YOU MUST IMPACT THE WORLD!!!

[sigh]

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 22:11 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Shiva must dance...too bad the banksters are trying to prevent his next step.  You do remember Shiva, ne?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:29 | Link to Comment eureka
eureka's picture

It is obvious that Tyler - by this and similar posts - not so subtly, but perhaps inadvertently, at least indirectly advocates FED "printing", monetization, asset purchases etc - using the itch to avoid the horrors of "austerity" as excuse...

Perhaps Tyler is a Shakespeare wanna-be; playing both sides of the fence, the moral argument - to entice and entrance the audience with ambiguity.

Perhaps it is too taxing to be consistently "Austrian" - or of any other clearly defined pursuasion & principle.

Principles, Bitches. Not whining!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment Chump
Chump's picture

Tyler isn't singular.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:46 | Link to Comment LoneCapitalist
LoneCapitalist's picture

I would not be in favor of printing, if we had a stable monetary system. However I believ there is no way to fix this mess with the current fiat system. Therefor, I say print until it all crashes, and then we can talk about a stable system.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:13 | Link to Comment Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

While we starve?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

The TD once said to be careful about what we wish for, due to the societal collapse that the fundamentals are pointing to.  They said that this is hardly a good outcome to what appears to be on our near horizon.  Remember that the TD's have also put forth reasonable suggestions on how to avoid this.

We little people will not have a choice in whether organized crime continues unabated or if chaos begins.  We will only get a choice in how we rebuild afterward.  

Sure would like to see any indication that a TD has advocated printing of money on these pages, because I can't remember any such statement.  Many "Guest Posts" have done so. Is there a chance that is what you are referring to?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment eureka
eureka's picture

We The People do have a choice - and it is called FREEDOM - and if we don't fight for it and win it - the US will start WWIII at the time when printing doesn't fool anyone anymore and thus no one will buy US paper/debt.

THAT - is the one and only inevitable and eventual consequence of QE ad infinitum.

Chose FREEDOM NOW - i.e. Ron Paul, i.e. no more empire and associated serfdom - or realize that "America" will never again be - not only that - after WWIII the US will completely isolated - no one will submit to it like they did after WWII - because WWIII will be started by US - i.e. US EMPIRE IS the evil initiator of WWIII - not as with WWII the savior.

ANyone who does not see and understand this - is in denial - or an establishment tool and a tool of the elite's paper/military empire - AND NEEDS TO OPEN THEIR EYES AND FACE THE TRUTH - TO WIT:

http://www.infowars.com/ron-pauls-iowa-finish-biggest-fraud-since-kenned...

RE TYLER DURDEN's position - I believe any editor & publisher should be 100% clear on their position and principles and never give any wind to its opposition and antithetical positions. Ambiguity is a toll of power - not truth. Is the Tyler Durden(s) for or against US Empire? Against the US FED RESERVE? Against QE? And yet simultaneously, though perhaps somewhat indirectly and or stealthily, for avoiding "austerity" - and how can one reconcile such opposing views - and thus how can anyone not see such antithetical promotions as double-speak/new-speak?

Naturally - I am challenging and provoking clarification of THE TD POSITION.

I do not subscribe to the theory that a publisher's philosophical postitions should be - or even can be - private. That sort of covering claims are mumbo-jumbo for manipulators.

The TDs can state their position or not as they please. Astute readers draw their own conclusions.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 15:12 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Is the Tyler Durden(s) for or against US Empire? Against the US FED RESERVE? Against QE?

Sounds like you are trying to get Tyler(s) sent to Gitmo and detained indefinetly.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 17:02 | Link to Comment eureka
eureka's picture

Are you kidding?  Ron Paul would then have been sent to Gitmo long ago.

Don't worship icons (like the Tylers) - and don't fear anyone - least of all US fricking Empire.

Let's not kid ourselves - CIA knows all of us and could take any one of us anytime they want. And yet they aren't. Why? We're not there yet - and we are insignificant - until we stand up, like Ron Paul, in full daylight, and then we are protected by the truth and its followers.

I, personally, do not ask for anything more.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 16:22 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Someone please see the Sovereign Credit-Default Swaps blowing out on Hungary, Egypt, Japan.

Should we call it PHIIGS now ?  who will bail-out Hungary ?  Hungary is now more risky than Ireland !

Egypt SCDS has increased 40% in 2 months.

Japan SCDS has increased 30% in 2 months.  Japan is more risky than Panama ? !

SOMETHING IS ON THE MOVE !

quantifying chaos.  It tally's up.  SCDS...shows what is getting risky.

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 16:02 | Link to Comment vato poco
vato poco's picture

It's "obvious" (the) Tylers(s) want blah blah blah?? In what alternate universe? *Possible*, sure - because anything's possible, and smart people making strategic feints just amplifies that. But obvious? Let me guess: you're an Alex Jones follower, the guy who not only suspects the official story is BS, but can PROVE it!!!!!!! (by and by. someday.)

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:29 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Hatzius forecasts severe recession in Europe.  SPY shoots up.  The fade-GS-play is now common.  

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 18:43 | Link to Comment eureka
eureka's picture

From RICHARD RUSSELL's NEW YEARS NEWSLETTER:

"All man-made money is a liability of the creator and I am afraid that.  Man-made money is ultimately doomed.  Gold will be the last man standing as it has been over thousands of years.

At the start this site I mentioned that already 6.3 trillion dollars have been lost in this early, and I emphasize, early, stage of the bear market.  The essence of what I foresee ahead -- we are now moving into the second half of one of the greatest bear markets in history.  It will not be a time for making money, rather it will be a time for austerity and survival.

Europe is already practicing austerity, and shortly I expect the US to follow in its footsteps.  One great problem is that the US's politicians are trying to avoid pain.  Austerity means pain, and to reduce our consumption and spending means one thing – taking the pain. 

Already the early signs of pain are appearing, and of course what I'm talking about is unemployment well above the present level.  During the 1930s unemployment rose to 25%.  I think ultimately we will again see unemployment above 25% before this bear market ends"

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

How do u like "austerity" irish style?

01-04 11:51: Irish 2011 budget deifict EUR 24.9bln vs. EUR 18.7bln in 2010

 

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

But is it better than expected?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:16 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

 

Eh? Interesting Conclusion here

"The political economy literature on austerity suggests a paradox. There is no significant punishment at the polls for governments pursuing cut-backs, and no evidence of gains in response to budget expansion".

So the median elector is more intelligent than the median politician (witness the Swiss direct democracy)... and it comes all down to corruption.

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

JPMorgan notes the study....as they give more charity to the NYPD fund.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:55 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

More?  Yet another "donation" to buy off the cops?

Link?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:14 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Iceland bitchez!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:17 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

GEE really? If you hand free billions and trillions to worthless banker criminals and pay for it by totaly screwing the people by taking away whatever meager pensions they may have had to live on, there may be 'political backlash' against the totaly corrupt politicians? Frankly Im SHOCKED!!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:18 | Link to Comment Esculent 69
Esculent 69's picture

Commodities to buy for the forseable future- 1. Gold and Silver. 2. Guns and ammo.   3. Gas, solar panels, batteries, radio, and more ammo. 4. Canned goods, top ramen, water, medicines, first aid supplies, and more ammo. 5. Night vision goggles, guard dog, and more ammo. 6. Losts of beer, whiskey, cigarettes, pot, lighters, physical porn rather than digital porn (for when electricity is scarce and you cant get on the internet) and lots and lots and lots of ammo. Did I forget anything?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:22 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

ammo

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:24 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Hand to hand combat weapons, crank radios, generators, cigarettes for barter, big dogs, big helmets, powdered drugs for barter, gaggle of hoes for business

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:25 | Link to Comment roccman
roccman's picture

two books:

 

1) where there is no dentist

2) where there is no doctor

 

and a suture kit.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:32 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Vise-Grips, bitchez.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:35 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

a good handyperson needs only two things... WD-40 & duct tape

If it's stuck... WD-40 it

If it's loose... Duct tape it

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:28 | Link to Comment Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

A well fortified location and a very well armed and dedicated group of individuals to defend all your stuff. Non-hybrid seed and livestock. The skills that will be needed along with tools - carpentry, mechanic, reloading, gunsmithing, as well as water and land mangement. Extra dry batteries for your battery bank, clothing, thread, copius amounts of 12VDC equipment (fans, lights, etc). Spares for your spares. One is none and two is one.

Salt.

Sugar.

Beano. Lots of it.

Canning and preserving equipment, and loads of spares.

SALT.

Did I mention Salt?

Don't forget rebuild kits for your weapons, wood (for heat and cooking), if you are lucky wood gassification setup and multifuel carberators for your internal combustion devices (including vehicles) to be able to run on producer gas.

Gold and silver for wealth transition - should be bought AFTER you have the three B's (beans, bullets, bandaids). I could go on, but you get the gist.

Never forget the Prepardness Triangle:

http://youtu.be/YO1KHppJOIU

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:54 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

What a lot of people never consider is to start by saving, organizing, & inventorying all the stuff that they have lying around...

Open a can of soup, tuna, beans, or whatever??? Wash & save the tin (turn them into portable wood gasifiers)

Got stuff in glass jars in the fridge... They can become temporary Mason jars

Plastic Bags (glad bags, trash bags, whatever)

aluminum cans = insulation

wine bottles, vodka & whiskey bottles, little airplane kit bottles, etc...

That's just a starter kit... I've been saving stuff for years now, keeping it sanitized, sealed, & ready for use (in a 2nd life), should it become necessary... People out there shopping for food survival kits nowadays are way late to the party...

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:35 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

I have never entertained the idea that in a true SHTF scenario which includes natural disaster, that I could reasonably expect to stay in one place...though I do have extensive home supplies.

I just re-worked the bug-out packs...car supplies, dual and foot.

It was an interesting exercise.

Only need about $100 for upgrades/additions.

This is a good time to shop--post hunting season and consumermass.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Fortuna Favet Paratus.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:34 | Link to Comment Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Dog food, tp- can't wipe your ass with all that ammo, some kind of water purification method, seeds and gardening tools, woodworking tools, all kinds of tools, in fact.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 18:48 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Whisky...it tastes better than Whiskey.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 22:19 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

A dozen or so friends to help stand watch.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:21 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

 


>>The independent variable that did result in more unrest: higher levels of government debt in the first place.<<

 


Makes sense because higher debt in the first place correlates with financiers getting rich. Then they want that debt repaid just when everything is tanking all around. Choices left: serfdom or revolution

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:37 | Link to Comment Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

Higher govt debt directly correlates with higher govt spending which correlates with ensnaring more dependence on the government  -- the government that was suppose to solve most societal ills by its massive central planning, spending and redistribution -- because government knows best.   Yet with tremendous growth in government we get more unrest. 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:21 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

The US has the benefit of having a massive military budget that could be substantially cut long before true "austerity" would be felt at home.  Most of these Euro countries, though, are consumed almost entirely by the welfare state, wherein every penny cut enflames the mob that violently objects every time they get a single spoonful less slop at the trough.  Bon chance, mes amis!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:26 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Can't meaningfully cut the military budget

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

....and that is because?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:41 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Of course we could, our myopic leaders who are bought and paid for by the military industrial complex just refuse to do so.  But I think that's probably what you meant anyway.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 18:35 | Link to Comment Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

Of what branch are you a member?  Or for what defense contractor do you work?  (in either case, substitute your "primary bread winner" for "you")

Military members are cowards for one or both of the following reasons:

They refuse to stand up to TPTB and admit TPTB systematically and intentionally destroyed all peaceful middle class jobs, leaving only mercenary employment for TPTB.

Rather than suffer for Christ's teaching of forgiveness in all things, and rather than admit they are simply blood thirsty war mongers, they create and purchase and distribute the evil, lying myth of "serving" for the better good of the public.  Cowards every one.  "Live by the sword, die by the sword."  (Revelation)   

If you read this, and you consider joining the military, if your family tells you you are "blessed" for serving, they lie. Disobey them.  "Blessed are the peace makers...Those who hate me (God) love death"

Proof that only war mongers took over any tiny semblance of the true Christian Church (more accurately now called "churchianity"): Rick Santorum is always identified as a "Christian conservative".  How can someone who openly supports felonious torture of human being possibly be called "Christian" or "C-O-N-S-E-R-V-A-T-I-V-E"?  How many time did Christ prohibit violence of any kind?  What does Santorum "conserve"? 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:20 | Link to Comment Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Of course he worships at the alter of Mammon, as I am sure you understand very well.  Christian is as Christian does. 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment valley chick
valley chick's picture

Heck...read an article this morning where people are screaming mad because a bridal shop threw out used dresses...WTH will it be like when these people get hungry?  

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:22 | Link to Comment roccman
roccman's picture

when the term kill off enters the vernacular of the human project it will be too late.

 

it's too late already - THEY know it - most don't.

 

the world is being powered down because cheap unlimited energy is gone.

 

we eat oil...

 

think about it!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:24 | Link to Comment jc125d
jc125d's picture

A little unrest might not be such a bad thing, to get us off our asses. A little austerity might not be such a bad thing; we are overpaying for protection from that bogeyman who hates us for our freedoms. I'd rather fight the bogeyman I know. No need for drones.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:26 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

The Politicans will do what is best for THEM.....and that is print...

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:26 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

WAR!!! WHOEAAAAAa!!!.!!.

Now where are the passports and the suitcases....

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:31 | Link to Comment Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

The patriot has but three boxes in his repertoire. The Ballot box, the soap box, and the ammo box. Enemies are both foreign and domestic. 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:29 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Here's some more chaos :

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9007270216

Foreign Warships Will Need Iran's Permission to Pass through Strait of Hormoz

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

Pushing has become shoving. Lets see who swings first.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:45 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

This is a stupid comparison since governments generally don't impose spending cuts on the public at anywhere near the level that they ratchet up spending in other years.

And since government is largely in business for itself at this point "austerity" usually translates into cutting services that will hurt voters most so that they associate the term with pain and avoid such appeals at the polls.

You'll notice it's always the teachers and the firemen who are first on the chopping block when money is tight and not the diversity counselors and community outreach facilitators.

Feel free to do away with the public employees behind the crushing amount of fees, permits and "studies" I have to pay for just to pile one rock on top of another in my own backyard.

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:45 | Link to Comment pasttense
pasttense's picture

This is false. It is never the massive mid and high level bureaucracy which is cut, but always those who actually provide services.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:48 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

...and usually the core services for which government was originally set up for in the first place.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 22:25 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

But, but... we NEED $500K+ studies on WHY Chimps fling poo funded!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment verum quod lies
verum quod lies's picture

I don’t quite agree with the comment that: “While we would expect that governments imposing spending cuts on their voting public may face electability issues, in fact, a recent paper from the Center for Economic Policy Research finds that there is no empirical evidence to confirm this - i.e. a budget-cutting government is no less likely to be re-relected than a spend-heavy government.”

For example, on page 12 the authors state: “Of the ?ve outcome variables, all show the expected sign, and three of them - demonstrations, riots and attempted revolutions - are statistically signi?cant.” If I was a politician in power that wanted to stay there I would think that riots and attempted revolution wouldn’t be healthy to my re-election chances, let alone physical health (e.g., see G-Pap’s retirement plans). In short, it might be that ex post analysis based on Europe during the period studied might not pick up much (i.e., statistically speaking) electability issues because it is only measuring electability for parties that maintain control, but if revolution results, which is more likely to happen in more extreme times (like now),then, by definition, the ones sitting in power lose power and/or their heads. I’d bet on the latter not the former (actually I’d bet G-Pap agrees with me).

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:36 | Link to Comment Esculent 69
Esculent 69's picture

Darn it. I forgot about a shovel and a big bag of lye so as when the unwanted come around to take your piece of cheese you can dispose of them. Or i could buy a bunch of vultures to eat the deceased unwanted as to be green about my waste.  I'll name the first vulture Gensler so he can eat the real Gensler 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:55 | Link to Comment Ewe235
Ewe235's picture

Forget the lye, just get a few pigs and feed them the deceased, then enjoy the pork and bacon.  The gift that keep on giving.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:38 | Link to Comment bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

dQ = TdS

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:47 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Some American's are going to have no idea what to do when entitlements are inevitably slashed. Dependency on the entitlement system is to the point that when talking to some people about entitlements like social security or welfare not being here, they don't even comprehend. And that's not even getting into a breakdown of the banking system where the distribution of goods is interrupted and those that aren't prepared, which is everybody, have no food. 

http://TheSilverJournal.com

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:49 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

*sigh*

It's so tiring to see intelligent people confuse the terms chaos and anarchy. Anarchy is not social unrest, but its exact opposite, as there are no such things as anarchists fighting in the streets. Those people seek control over others, and thus, are not truly anarchists.

Anarchy, a.k.a. self-government, depends upon the axiom of non-aggression towards others. It is the only political system synonymous with peace. Anyone who aggressively seeks to control others is not an anarchist, but a statist looking to implement their own model.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:17 | Link to Comment aheady
aheady's picture

Bravo.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:49 | Link to Comment westerman
westerman's picture

11% of GDP austerity is needed to balance the american budget. This study is mainly about 0-5% austerity. Exciting

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment malek
malek's picture

"11% of GDP" beautiful whitewash euphemism

Unfortunately a cut of close to 30% federal expenditures is necessary to balance the budget, not counting second round effects due to less government spending.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:50 | Link to Comment Northeaster
Northeaster's picture

"Politically speaking, austerity is a challenge."

Maybe in the rest of the world, but here in The United States, it shouldn't be an issue. Within the past ten years, three of the first ten Bill of Rights have effectively been abolished.

The Patriot Act effectively eliminated The Fourth Amendment with warrant-less wiretapping.

The NDAA blows up The Fifth Amendment "without due process of law" as well The Sixth Amendment "the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial".

Sure, there's been stern words of outrage, but that's it. Not even a peep from the military, those who take an oath to protect The U.S. Constitution, not any one person presiding in office.This is in light of massive corruption, at all levels of government!

Whatever economic troubles come won't matter, sure there will be winners and losers, but if there hasn't been a revolt in light of The U.S. Constitution being relegated to toilet paper status by now, there never will be. If you're hunkering down for the invasion by whoever, chances are, you'll be left there, no one cares, and you're doing the governments work for them.

2 cents.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:20 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

First amendment blown up as well.

A recent FOIA request revealed that the FBI wants food activists categorized and prosecuted as terrorists if their investigations/words/actions cause economic loss.

http://www.cagle.com/2011/12/open-up-and-say-ahh/

>>>A recent Freedom of Information Act request has revealed that the FBI wants what it calls “food activists” prosecuted as terrorists, perhaps because nothing could more terrifying than exposing where our so-called food comes from and how it is manufactured.<<<

>>>The Freedom of Information request comes just as the Center for Constitutional Rights has filed a lawsuit challenging the Animal Enterprise Terrorism Act (AETA). The AETA is a law designed to to suppress activism and speech regarding the industries which brutalize animals with horrific conditions and/or pump them full of chemicals and drugs. Activists who expose such things very likely would cause economic loss due to the fact that many people would not eat what they eat if they actually knew what they were eating. Therefore, it is vitally important that they never find out.

Similar repressive laws are being introduced throughout the emerging fascist state that is America in the 21st century. In Florida for example, an ‘Ag Gag’ law has been introduced that would define taking pictures of the way corporations manufacture food as ‘terrorism’. Nothing says “We have something to hide” like saying “You are a terrorist if you take pictures of it.”<<<

So, will whistle blowers now be taken into custody, charged and prosecuted as terrorits?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_Enterprise_Terrorism_Act

It even gets more bizarre.

An Ag Gag law in my state failed recently.  It would have made taking a picture of a farm...even from the road side...a criminal offense.

It's just a matter of time before it passes I'm sure.

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 18:48 | Link to Comment Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

I sympathize.

"...In Florida for example, an ‘Ag Gag’ law has been introduced that would define taking pictures of the way corporations manufacture food as ‘terrorism’. Nothing says “We have something to hide” like saying “You are a terrorist if you take pictures of it.”<<<

So, will whistle blowers now be taken into custody, charged and prosecuted as terrorits?..."

What do you think of the fact that Canada and (IIRC) seventeen European nations imprison persons for stating their non-belief in the Holocaust story that the German's delivered gas to multiple millions of prisoners (primarily Jews) to intentially murder them?

What says "We have no evidence to support our claims" better than imprisoning persons with supporting a contrary opinion?

What states "We have no evidence to support our claims" better than labeling anyone who disagrees as a "denier"?  (The term itself connotes that there is only pre-determined outcome to the debate, in fact that debate itself proves you are wrong if you disagree.) 

Any and every possible opinion in the world is explored toward the goal of enlightenment and man's never ending quest for truth and knowledge! 

Well, except if you cross us on this one you go straight to prison, sorry...    

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:50 | Link to Comment pasttense
pasttense's picture

There is no alternative to austerity because of peak natural resources (oil, fertilizer,, etc), the retirement of the baby boomer generation/increasing life span, the massive debt overhang and numerous other problems. The only question is of having moderate austerity now or a massive crash later. The U.S. has clearly chosen a massive crash later. It sounds like much of Europe is choosing moderate austerity now.

 

Moderate austerity now is the better choice than the massive crash later.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:02 | Link to Comment jmac2013
jmac2013's picture

Austerity for whom?  Do you think the billionaires in this country or any other will feel one ounce of pain?  If anything the "austerity" will only serve to increase their buying power and widen the gap between the poor and super wealthy.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:03 | Link to Comment jmac2013
jmac2013's picture

duplicate

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:50 | Link to Comment Catullus
Catullus's picture

A government is no more likely to get kicked out during periods of austerity because there's very little in the way of change in incumbency advantage throughout election cycles.  The incumbent wins more often than not in western democracies and there's little that changes that.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment James-Morrison
James-Morrison's picture

Paper seems to say, when times are bad people act accordingly

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:58 | Link to Comment Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

Speaking of Austerity. Oh, the comedy, oh the tragedy...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFTvpIigIcU

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:03 | Link to Comment agent default
agent default's picture

Pass the popcorn, politics is about to meet basic arithmetic.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 14:40 | Link to Comment TheAkashicRecord
TheAkashicRecord's picture

This is what happens when you are critical towards our foreign policy and start talking about Israel ... technical difficulties with the feed lol

http://tiny.cc/8wn0u

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 15:43 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

we saw that link last nite on the iowa thread, too

i was once in the military and there were limits, then, about "free political speech while in uniform"

as i understood it, since you work for the DOD, the secy of defense (senate-approved), and the prez, you still get to vote and talk among yourelves, family, and friends, but, to call those shitheads out on TV tended to result in, if you're lucky, administrative loss of pay and rank and maybe some extra duty, within guidelines, of course.  but, once you go beyong the local aspects of that chain of command, jail-timemayloom4Udue2bigbadju-ju

maybe this is still somewhat relevant for those in uniform.  so maybe the CNN editor or producer did this soldier a favor...  it seems far-fetched, at first, but it is certainly a possibility, imo...

when you're with your unit or in your hooch, having a beer, writing letters and bull-shitting, this kind of talk is allowed;  it's about all you'll hear, really!  this is what soldiers have thought for-ever.  trust me

but in front of a camera, in uniform?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

The Weimar Republic was unstable from 1918 when it was created by Philipp Scheidemann. There had been no decision about a Republic as opposed to a Constitutional Monarchy but Scheidemann proclaimed a Republic and it quickly had to leave Berlin for the safety of Weimar. So the Inflation was simply the endgame. The real problem of Austerity is when it is assymmetrical and Ordinary People face constraints and cutbacks but Bankers and "The Rich" seem to be prospering amid suffering. There have been no Banker Trials, they get treated far better than a School Teacher facing (false) accusations from pupils. They get Badges of Honour from political cronies and heaped with bonuses by their friends. German Courts are deliberating whether Nonnemacher of HSH Nordbankj should go on trial for the 10 billion Euro rescue of his fine institution - and be the first banker on the block.

Too many people seem to be thriving in this "Austerity" and they usually seem to have great contacts with the Governing Elites. In Britain mid-year the Nomenklatura will have their own road lanes, hotels, and bodyguards paid for by an oppressed taxpayer class feting tax-dodgers and international spivs as they hob-nob with the "We're all In This Together" Cameron-Clegg Party Set. If that doesn;t blow a few fuses nothing will - a bit like L'Autre-chienne"

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 16:38 | Link to Comment xcehn
xcehn's picture

"Austerity in Greece has pushed the suicide rate to be the highest in Europe, as wages and jobs are slashed and taxes are hiked."

http://www.examiner.com/european-finance-in-national/greek-suicide-rate-...

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 16:42 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

People riot not because of austerity measures but because of inequality.  If everyone is subject to a big haircut it's a fact of life and people commiserate together.  If an elite few get very rich while the rest suffer then the populace will rise up and riot.  The experience of the airlines was telling.  When the airlines asked pilots for paycuts the pilots responded with grumbles.  When the CEOs took huge bonuses the pilots walked off the job.  You must take a look at income disparities when analyzing the propensity of a population to break into disorder.

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 18:41 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

OK...a few riots.  Then TPTB with the real money put together a new "people's party"...they setup all the right arrangements, brothels for the insider ring who can see the leaders.  Free houses for the group below the insider ring.  Free beer for everyone else.  Lets call it the Nazi party...and ther you go.  Everyone gets fat, dumb, and happy and you just steal from everone else who doesn't agree. 

That's how dictators and fascists run their paypal/social-network systems.

Its happened before...and may happen again.  Hopefully the military will prevent these sorts of bad outcomes.

Based on the 1920's German experiment...more austerity leads to more corruption and more dictators.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Rynak
Rynak's picture

The article is misleading.

It is based on the decision of austerity versus simply accumulating more debt in a way that does NOT involve money printing, and thus NOT involves price inflation and thus NOT reduced wages.

That option currently does not exist anymore. There is no decision anymore about IF austerity is done, but rather HOW and how it is distributed.

Thus, the context which the article implies, is completely detached from reality. And i would argue: intentionally so.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 17:29 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

“The independent variable that did result in more unrest: higher levels of government debt in the first place.”

So this study shows that the Keynesians, like the dishonest moron Krugman, that they sow the seeds of destruction, but then when it arrives, they simply say that “austerity” won’t work!

That only additional spending will allow for economies to recover.

 

A bald face lie. The Keynesian “elite” always place themselves to benefit from the increased Gov’t spending, and then when they get crunched from the inevitable bubble bursting, they cry for more spending to bail themselves out !! Bastids…and the violence that surely ensues is on their hands.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 17:50 | Link to Comment malek
malek's picture

Sounds like an academic paper to support the Krugmanites.

Unfortunately postponing austerity one day leads to hyperinflation, and that didn't work out too well in Weimar Germany either...

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment dvp
dvp's picture

O.K., now I'm flummoxed.  Let's see,

“given the ongoing austerity that is being forced (rightfully) upon the most indebted nations in Europe, it is perhaps no longer an issue of electability as technocrats roam freely and much more one of central stability and fear of the empirical link between austerity and anarchy.”

Now, apparently, "ongoing austerity . . . is being force (rightfully) upon the most idebted nations in Europe," when engendered by this rightful "ongoing austerity" is "an issue of . . . central stability and fear of the empirical link between austerity and anarchy.”

Is Mr. Durden indicating a desire for a collapse in "central stability" because of "the empirical link beween austerity and anrarchy," or is Mr. Durden asserting "ongoing austerity" is being forced "(rightfully)," despite the likelihood of a collapse in "central stability" because of "the empirical link beween austerity and anrarchy?"  If the former, then it would be appreciated if Mr. Durden would make his position clear, and explain his reasoning.  If the latter, then surely forcing "ongoing austerity" is irrational because self-defeating.  Being irrational, I know not in what sense it can be understood to be forced "(rightfully)."

Plese, Mr. Durden, please, can you make yourself clear as to what you mean by your assertion?

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 19:35 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

If Obama orders massive principal reductions for mortgage borrowers (paid for by taxpayers and supported by Bernanke), willl that stem chaos or curb it?

All The Fed’s Horses And All The Prez’s Programs Couldn’t Put Housey Together Again: Obama Appoints Cordray To CFPC, Bernanke Recommends Fannie/Freddie Take More Losses

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/04/all-the-feds-horses-a...

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 20:04 | Link to Comment sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

In short, austerity looks good until you have to implement it. 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 17:43 | Link to Comment johnjb32
johnjb32's picture

Excellent discussion of what austerity really accomplishes. -- Michael C. Ruppert

 

http://www.collapsenet.com/154.html

 


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