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Australian Banks Given One Week To Prepare For European "Meltdown"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Whereas previously we had heard extensive horror stories about banks being told to prepare for the end of the world in case the European summit (the latest and greatest one from last Friday which was supposed to find a cure for cancer among other things) failed, and even went so far as to read about preparations for trading in the drachma on a when issued basis, once the summit passed (and it was clear that media posturing would do nothing to fix what has already been a failure and it would be best to remove the threats of "reality" from the public's attention) all such "end of the world" speculation promptly disappeared - after all why remind people that things are now worse than ever.  Until today. According to the Australian Finance Review (link - subscription required), banks down under "have been given 1 week by regulators to stress test how they would handle a spike in joblessness, plunge in home prices spurred by EU debt crisis." Aka a European "Meltdown." And since we don't have immediate access to the article, we leave it to Bloomberg First Word to describe for us what the article says:

  • Australian Prudential Regulation Authority envision worst-case scenario of 12% unemployment, 30% drop in house prices, 40% fall in commercial property values, AFR says
  • Banks will assume that write-offs, other mitigation measures are unavailable; later stress tests might allow for such steps, AFR says
  • Australia’s banks have A$87.2b of exposure to Europe, or 2.7% of assets, with A$74.6b of it mostly tied to bank borrowers in France, Germany, Netherlands, AFR says, citing RBA statistics

Why is this notable? Because unlike before, when media reports were really a propaganda ploy to get European politicians to collaborate (what has now proven to be an impossible task), and nothing but a rhetorical device, this time around, the warning is for real. And, more importantly, we have a sense of urgency, courtesy of the 1 week deadline: the question then is is it really that bad, and does Europe truly have a little over a week for global banks to prepare for the inevitable fall out?

Lastly, how long until our own prudent leaders decide it may be time to push the Stress Test scheduled for next year forward, just in case the "unthinkable" does happen, and US banks end up getting stampeded even as the rest of the world is already prepared for a worst case scenario?

We are confident Tim Geithner will get right back to us asap on all of these open items.

 


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Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:22 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Well, it's more notice than you get with incoming ICBMs.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:36 | Link to Comment SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Fuck mate. Throw another vampire squid on the barbie. 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:30 | Link to Comment gojam
gojam's picture

Lots of European Bank Holidays coming up and every household will be provisioned to the hilt.

Maybe Santa will give Deutsche Marks to Hans this Christmas ??

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:48 | Link to Comment PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

I am not Hans, but I would welcome him. I still have Deutsche Mark - paper and coin. Unfortunately, it was not unusually for the generation of my father and grandfather to change the currency more frequently. That and the hyperinflation may be the reason why my family always invested into Gold and Silver. Having said that, the Deutsche Mark was a stable and good currency.

 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 20:00 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Yet Australian MSM reports nothing of this, nor of any problems with their economy. The Oz sheeple are being led to the slaughter.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 21:41 | Link to Comment Wolf-Avatar
Wolf-Avatar's picture

Ahmeexnal, Not all of us are sheep being led to the slaughter ... some of us are on here getting our warnings before others.  :-)

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 21:56 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Good to know some are aware.

Now turn up that AC/DC !

ANGUS YOUNG RULES!

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 03:34 | Link to Comment Mauibrad
Mauibrad's picture

Damn, and I thought Aussie was a true AAA.  Notice the Bloomberg article compared the Euro debt held by Aussie banks to their ASSETS, not their CAPITAL.  

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:44 | Link to Comment tooktheredpill
tooktheredpill's picture

vampire squid - thats gold.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 23:02 | Link to Comment WhatCouldGoWrong
WhatCouldGoWrong's picture

Usually don't laugh out loud when reading ZH, but the picture of V squid sizzleing on the grill did it. Well played, mate!

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 00:26 | Link to Comment merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

"Usually don't..."  You don't?!  Bro, I come here not just for my first source of information, but pretty much everyday something makes me laugh out loud!  Today's been good so far; the first two comments on this one both cracked me up.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 02:22 | Link to Comment chipshot
chipshot's picture

I HOPE ALL YOU PLEBS ARE ITCHING FOR A FIGHT...TPTB AND THE NWO  WANT YOU TO GO POSTAL....TAKE OUT A POLI OR TWO AND MEET YOU 9MM VS 9MM THEY WANT YOU PISSED. WHAT MORE MUST THEY DO? STEAL YOUR HOME, YOUR SSN FUNDS ,YOUR JOB, YOUR SAVINGS,YOUR 401K ,HYPER INFLATE YOUR FOOD COSTS, MEDICAL COSTS, EDUCATION COSTS , DUMB YOUR KIDS DOWN TO F-TARDS IN SCHOOL, STOP DOMESTIC ENERGY ... ALL DONE....YES  ITS ALL THERE FOR YOU TO SEE AND GO BALLISTIC ABOUT. OATHKEEPERS ,CITIZEN PATRIOTS, MILITIAS OF MANY ILK,  FREE MARKET CAPITALIST, BIBLE THUMPERS ,2ND AMENDERS AND 10TH AMENDERS  THEY ARE FLIPPING YOU THE BIRD AND DESTROYING YOUR FUTURE---- DEBT SLAVE POLICE STATE IS THEIR PLAN FOR YOU ...DO YOU AGREE??!!??.......GOT MY POPCORN AND MY  A.K. JUST WAITING FOR THE GO AHEAD.....

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:04 | Link to Comment whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Wasnt today when the US debt/GDP crosses 100% ?

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:20 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Fake Philly Fed report prolly goosed the fake GDP number and pushed the crossover 'til New Year's.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:05 | Link to Comment RMolineaux
RMolineaux's picture

IMO, Japanese style, we will continue to scramble and find mitigating measures, so that we will not have a sudden burst, but a gradual deflation of the balloon.  These measures will not, of course, prevent the process of collapse, but only slow it down.

What is interesting about the US situation is that the political "leadership" is simply and honestly totally clueless about what is happening, and continue to kiss the ass of the Wall Street greed platoon.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:24 | Link to Comment i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

I don't think they are clueless. I think it works to their advantage if people believe they are clueless. People are more likely to string up the sinister than the clueless.

Just to be more clear, I think there was a time that they were clueless, but that was about five years ago. Most things now are orchestrated, IMO.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 00:43 | Link to Comment Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

Nah, ever since the days of Alexander Hamilton, and if you don't like that, since the days when those honorable chaps got on board a luxury railcar to go to Jekyl Island they haven't been clueless. Our current conditions have been in the works for 100+ years. Got to give credit to the Founding Fathers for the strength of the country and the Constitution for holding back these evil men for so long. But now the gig is just about up. Will the tree of liberty be watered again soon with the blood of tyrants and patriots? Enough of just the innocents dying.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 19:07 | Link to Comment Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

I would much rather see it fast and hard so we can see Wall St. bankers jumping from sky scapers...It would just be more entertaining IMHO...

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:05 | Link to Comment RMolineaux
RMolineaux's picture

IMO, Japanese style, we will continue to scramble and find mitigating measures, so that we will not have a sudden burst, but a gradual deflation of the balloon.  These measures will not, of course, prevent the process of collapse, but only slow it down.

What is interesting about the US situation is that the political "leadership" is simply and honestly totally clueless about what is happening, and continue to kiss the ass of the Wall Street greed platoon.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:07 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

I'm going to sing the Doom song now...

Doom doom doomity doom doom DOOOOOM!


Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Banksters
Banksters's picture

Is this bullish? BITCHEZZZZZ

 

Cheers!

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 19:33 | Link to Comment Thunder_Downunder
Thunder_Downunder's picture

Whhhhhoooooooossshhh!

 

Swan: Crickey, what was that? Smells like burning hair!

Moodys: Your AAA credit rating...

Swan: Strewth mate! We only just got it polished!

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 06:02 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Been an Aussie all my life and I don't remember ever hearing anyone use those words, crickey or strewth, in common usage, anywhere.

In fact, if you did use them in a conversation, as though they were commonly-used words, people would look at each other, and tend to move away from you, assuming you were a bit of a boofhead.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 06:24 | Link to Comment BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

i don't think we have to worry,

we have this amazing treasurer called Wayne Swon.

He got a prize from the banking cartel saying he was the best treasurer in the world.

so why worry....

we're cool.... totally.

:/

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 06:46 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

You must believe in the grey swann, he will protect us and kiss it all better, and provide copious tax funded depository bailouts for the truely needy running the best financial institutions on earth.

He's on our side digger - and I feel a whole lot better about that!  |:-0

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 06:58 | Link to Comment BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

She'll be apples mate.... god help us.

hey i replied to a post of yours below - hope you get a chance to check it.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 08:25 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

I was going to be working over Christmas ... if this article is on the money I may not have to ... may not be able to ... there is an upside ...

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 11:32 | Link to Comment Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

"Well, it's more notice than you get with incoming ICBMs."

Speaking of incoming ICBMs:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZBRc0VtRiQ

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:22 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

No worries ... the US has a high-tech nationwide alert system.

When your phone starts buzzing, hit the ATM and then take cover.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

ROFLMAO

 

 

Oh, better go to the bank right now........

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

Make sure to give them a phone call in advance to have cash on hand or they'll refuse you service for large amounts.  Bank run bitches

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:46 | Link to Comment fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

I would like to think the markets are forward thinking. If they knew something was going to happen a week from now they would react now.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:49 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

You're right. If such a meltdown were expected the stock market would stage a spectacular rally.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:57 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

Mwa ha ha ha -- the 'cash on the sidelines' rally, as gas, food, ice and beer are bought with reckless abandon.

Econ 101, biTcheZ!

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:52 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Perhaps the reason the markets are irrational seeming is because they are truely in the moment. 

They reflect the perfect balance of want, need, greed and oversight or lack there-of at any given instance.

Th edistortions are ours. as is the irrationality.

ori

/this-that-and-the-4th-reich/

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 23:27 | Link to Comment DollarMenu
DollarMenu's picture

Given the players and all their tools, things are where and what they are because they couldn't be anything else?

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 23:45 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Exactamente!

ori

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:23 | Link to Comment Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

Guns, Gold, and Girls... having the SHTF doesn't sound to bad if you're prepared.  Sounds like EURUSD might go to 1.20 real quick.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:33 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

Aaaah! the 3G network!

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:01 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

Upgrade to 4G, my man -- Guns, Gold, Girls and Ganja!

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:22 | Link to Comment Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

All four have been illegal in some form or another ... TBTB obviously fear one of the 4Gs... I wonder which is most dangerous.  I tend to think women.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:41 | Link to Comment TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

I vote for gold as most dangerous.

Half the world - the women -clamor for it.

Guns used to get your gold.

And gold buys all the ganja one could ever want.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 20:57 | Link to Comment BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Not so fast there Whimpy we got some pretty spensive ganja here.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 06:06 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Ganja just makes you loose your aim, and forget to reload, while thinking deep and stirring thoughts about stuff you realise doesn't matter, if you can even remember it, once you aren't bent any more.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 06:28 | Link to Comment BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Yep and aussie ganja is up with the best.

takes away the pain of trying to figure it all out.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 06:38 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Yani (as the Abo's call it) is old-school.  Over the last ten years, more and more its speed and synthetic party-drug muck mixed with energy drinks and hard spirits. And it's number one characteristic is to turn polite and sociable people into destructive and self-destructive arseholes who spread misery everywhere.

I'm not a fan of any of it.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:33 | Link to Comment Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

If so, can I take my girls to Europe for a vacay?  I hate to leave my guns at home.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:41 | Link to Comment Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

 Sorry girly guns a no no in EuropeI will look after your guns n gold while you are away.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:51 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Guns and gold can be used to preserve your wealth and freedom. Girls, not so much.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:02 | Link to Comment MaggieL
MaggieL's picture

Some of us girls have our own guns...

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:12 | Link to Comment GCT
GCT's picture

I love me some armed gurls.  They usually do not take any shit either!

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

Don't mean to make it dirty, but I love it when a girl lets me do a little bump firing ...

 

 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:08 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Girls make your wealth and freedom worthwhile.  Unless you are gay  ... nothing wrong with that.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ild8w0rHQU

 

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 00:58 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

I'm not any gayer that you are, Shirley.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:06 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I'm prepared for the worst, that doesn't mean I wanna see it happen.

And can one every be prepared for the worst?

This shit is global now and might even turn into a WOIII in a few years.

 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:51 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Methinks the notion of being "prepared for the worst" is fallacy, as "the worst" is that place just beyond one's preparedness.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 20:17 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Yup!

I was laughing at this proclamation as well.  The "worst" would be that you've pissed folks off and they can nod their heads to dump a nuke on your ass.  Yeah, good luck with preparations for That!

It's about RISK.  One can only gauge things based on risk, based on probabilities.  If you prepare for the WORST then you're likely going to have unprepared for higher probability things: if your scopes are all pointed up monitoring for incoming nukes they you're likely going to be surprised to be overrun from people on the ground.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

WWIII for sure.  Only question is will it be conventional or nuclear?  I figure the latter.  Maybe the Mayan astronomers knew something.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:25 | Link to Comment I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

christmas week meltdown bitchez

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:34 | Link to Comment SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Wouldn't that be funny.  I can see it now.  CNBS HEADLINES: "JESUS HATES THE GLOBAL ECONOMY."

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:57 | Link to Comment Sheikh Dani
Sheikh Dani's picture

For sure ... we have to blame someone !!

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:11 | Link to Comment el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

He wasn't real fond of the money changers - read bankers.  Only time he ever lost it.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 19:29 | Link to Comment blu
blu's picture

In the Christian Bible they expect four horsemen to trample civilization at the end of the world.

Well according to Revelation 6:5-6 one of them is an actual banker. The only one of the four with a recognizable occupation: Futures trader.

Look it up of you don't believe me.

 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:52 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Obama to star in the role of the Little Droner Boy.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:27 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

Geithner knows its coming,  Why do you think they pushed up the US Treasury auctions to next week.  When was the last time the US had back to back weeks of full blown debt auctions? 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:27 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Fed will step in

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:30 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I concur. 

Bernanke will keep interest rates at 0% and print money in accordance with his strong dollar policy. Hell he may give away the printing plates.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:06 | Link to Comment MaggieL
MaggieL's picture

Give away the plates? You mean like the way Harry Dexter White did after founding the IMF with Keynes? 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:34 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Fed can step in then step out, then shake it all about. Matters not.

It's not going to help.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:52 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Just kicking the can for a month/week/day/hour, they'll keep it up until the end.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:36 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Teh Burnank can raise interest rates in 15 minutes...

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 22:13 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

redpill,

Fed will step in

Already have in IT.(Plural)

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:27 | Link to Comment justanothernerd
justanothernerd's picture

I don't know if you do requests, but can there be a post on how to profit (even on paper) once the printing presses start? Obviously keeping money tucked away in physical assets would be sound, but the printing presses are going to start sooner than later, and I imagine there will be a lot of opportunities for significant profit.. 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:38 | Link to Comment Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

gold coins from the late 1800's as well as Morgan silver dollars because they are artwork, artwork from Sam Colt, William Ruger, Smith and his buddy Wesson, and lead, and brass are my favorites, creations by Sara Lee, Marie Calendar, etc., and water works as well.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:42 | Link to Comment See in the pink
See in the pink's picture

"creations by Sara Lee, Marie Calendar, etc., and water works as well"

Seems that, like most Americans, you might want to consider re-evaluating what you consider to actually be "food." Hint: if it's made from flour (let alone GMO'd white flour) and packed full of preservatives and high-fructose corn syrup, then you're probably better off not eating anything at all (I should, however, mention that while fasting can lead to incredible resurgences in energy, stamina, immunity and mental clarity, it can take a week or more to adjust and get into "fat burning mode" - ketosis - and you'll need a lot of pure drinking water to facilitate the process and help with the detoxing).

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 06:31 | Link to Comment BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

 

i was reading your post and i thought to myself again....

' i gotta get fit'

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:53 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

If the Tylers are taking requests I'd like to hear Freebird.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:32 | Link to Comment hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Be careful what you ask for:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOMlX7jaQBs

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:38 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Hey! That's not Freebird!

It was funny for about a minute but as someone who likes both Freebird and say, The Rocky Horror Picture Show, I have to conclude that the stereotyping is way off base.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:53 | Link to Comment hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Rocky Horror Picture Show?  Mmm, I'm thinking more along the lines of Joe Dirt.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 19:26 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

That would be just the kind of inaccurate stereotype to which I referred.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:15 | Link to Comment The 100 Trillio...
The 100 Trillion Dollar Man's picture

long wheelbarrows.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:00 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Deep ones, too.  :D

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:18 | Link to Comment RMolineaux
RMolineaux's picture

Yes indeed.  You vultures always find ways.  Like the lead in "Gone With the Wind," you know that there is more to be looted in the destruction of a society than in its construction.  Now that your friends on Wall Street are in the ascendancy, this is only to be expected.  There are a lot of your contemporaries on the internet offering ways to prosper on other people's misfortunes. 

 

 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:00 | Link to Comment SecondAdamWon
SecondAdamWon's picture

I'm not an investment expert, and I'm certainly no Tyler, but it is my general understanding that when the Fed prints the overall market goes up. So ask Uncle Ben to give you an anonymous tip up the day before they print - that part is critical. Give us all the heads up, then go out right away, and, in order to expose yourself to the general market, buy an S&P ETF, e.g., Vanguard VOO. Then, after two or three days of green numbers in the tripple digits, sell for a nice profit. Optional: then, go to Costco with your earnings and buy as many 25lb bags of pinto beans and rice as you can store in a cold dry place, and if you live in the SW you may want to pick up 55gal drum or two and proceed to fill with water. "Put your trust in God; but mind to keep your powder dry."

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:32 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

we are so fcked.  Even if we solve this financial crisis, we've passed the tipping point of  exponential decline in the arctic ice shield, and it's become a positive feedback loop.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/methane-discovery-stokes-new-g...

 

man-made climate change may be the 6th extinction event for the planet. specie extinction:man.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:38 | Link to Comment SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Riiiiiiight.  Because global warming isn't a farce.  [/sarc]

The fact that the UN says that the sun has NO AFFECT on Earth's climate says it all.  No, it's that evil gas called CO2...What humans exhale and plants breathe...

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:20 | Link to Comment srsly-wtf
srsly-wtf's picture

Mars has warmed too over the last century.  We must be exporting CO2...

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Börjesson
Börjesson's picture

To be utterly convinced that global warming is not a problem is every bit as stupid as being utterly convinced that it is. The truth is that we don't know for sure.

This is usually the best way to tell idiots from smart people in any debate: Not by which views they endorse, but by whether they're a hundred percent committed to one side of the argument or not.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

The problem with global warming is not whether it's true...it's the fact that market-dislocating policies are implemented under the guise of global warming irrespective of whether it's true.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 06:10 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Ian Plimer - Heaven and Earth: Global Warming, the Missing Science - October 24, 2009

Financial Sense NewsHour MP3

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-1024-2.mp3

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:12 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Not sure why you got junked, but you are correct.

We are not able to determine the effects accurately, and certainly cannot properly model all the variables.  Which makes it pointless to use the models for their predictive value.

And then to use the possibly wildly inaccurate models to forge policy tells me that the science is being used as another appeal to authority for a policy.

Shit, I betcha the baseline range for the above study over the course of the year would be larger than their gains.

pods

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:18 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

But set the empirical debate aside...isn't the REAL issue that gw is used as a crutch to push this and that irrespective of the nondisprovable truth?

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:47 | Link to Comment johny2
johny2's picture

It is inescapable that there is a whole army of paper pushers ready to get on the train of global warming bandwagon. But making that a bigger issue than the reality that we are on unsustainable path is wrong isn't it? Both should be given attention, but one is clearly much bigger issue than the other.  

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 21:10 | Link to Comment BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

One thing is for sure. CO2 sure is good plant food. People put fertilizer on their garden but CO2 the one thing that is absolutely required by plants is bad. ROFLMAO at peoples stupidity.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 21:35 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Oh absolutely.  They are trying to solve a problem that may not be there and cannot be solved by the actions proposed.

Carbon Credits?  Look up the list of the sponsors of the exchange, most are banks.  Well, the ones left.

When someone asks for more power over me for some phantom thing, I grab my rifle and wallet.  

Same thing that led to us bombing brown people all over the world (who are on top of our oil).

I would go one step further and that the global warming "debate" is like two fleas arguing who owns the dog they are on.

I would say that man's hubris knows no ends, but it is simpler than that.  Revenue and debt expansion!

pods

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 06:11 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Which makes it pointless to use the models for their predictive value.

 

I could not agree more

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 20:12 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Borjesson: people like you are exactly what the oligarchs want.

At least consider it might be true, and therefore you are guilty of it and need to pay taxes to make ammends.

 

How about REAL democracy for a fucking change?

MNINIMAL taxes should be paid by all which support basic infrastructure/emergency medical response/security.  For the rest of the fairly recent debatable agendas, let those who support them pay taxes for them. If you support abortion, you pay a tax that goes to fund abortion clinics. If you support/believe global warming, a tax is deducted from your paycheck to bailout the next Solyndra.  If you support AGENDA X, you pay a tax that goes on to support such agenda.

I can tell you this much right now boy: a lot if not all of all bigmouths who support all those socialist agendas would suddenly go mute.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 20:56 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"MNINIMAL taxes should be paid by all which support basic infrastructure/emergency medical response/security"

Sounds well, makes you a hit with the macho shits out there, great for you.  But...

Reality is a bitch, and the entire paradigm is based on expansion.  Without expansion, oh, and it could NEVER stop either, you canNOT support that which you're EXPECTING to magically exist.

First it'll be MINIMAL (note the spelling), then, slowly, when you've discovered that you absolutely have to have this shit served up you WILL be faced with LESS_THAN_MINIMAL taxes OR shit-can most of that which you're expecting.

"Security," right... do you work for the security apparatus?  It's a fucking Trojan Horse, of have you not figured this out? (it'll demand ever-increasing MINIMAL tax dollars until, once again, it owns your ass)

Give up the drugs, folks, they're making you see/hear/read shit that just ain't there.  This is all unicorn and Skittles talk as much as all the BIG govt shit.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:42 | Link to Comment johny2
johny2's picture

I don't claim to be an expert, but it is a known fact that the climate changed many, many times and will keep on changing. Speed of this phenomen and the reason for it are questionable, but the fact of it happening is really not. 

I am pretty sure both CO2 and Sun have influence on the climate, and thousands of nukes exploding can change it too.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 21:04 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Absolutely correct.  And, anyone who thinks that humans have no affect on the planet are, well, Darwin? Darwin?...

The BIG cycles are pretty clear.  Grow lots of plants, erode minerals (into the sea) and release CO2, then reset via the glacial period (final warming push is brief and pulls the trigger for the switch to trip to glacial formation).  Glaciers come and and re-till, then it's back to the start of life rising up again.

So, in this context, yeah, we're not going to be able to change a damn thing, but to think that we don't affect the speed of this, well...

The deniers might have it right.  I mean, we can no longer stop the next glacial period than we can stop continental drift.  So, party on!  Oh, but please DO help speed up space exploration so that the chosen few (TPTB) can escape.

NOTE: Look up Doomsday Seed Vault

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:46 | Link to Comment ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

Yes, CO2 is what humans exhale, and what plants use in photosynthesis. However, think of where the majority of humans are now concentrated, and then consider how many plants (mainly very old trees) have been removed to house people. Then consider that apart from humans emitting C02, we also have every vehicle (land, air or sea) powered by a combustion engine, and coal and gas fired power generators spewing out masses of carbon monoxide and dioxide, as well as methane, sulphur and whatever else is the by product of the burning of fossil fuels.

Now - take an ever increasing capacity to produce these greenhouse gases, and combine it with a constantly decreasing ability to process it due to less vegetation, and it seems as though we might have a bit of a problem. Sort of like more and more debt, but a shrinking ability to pay it off.

Are we the sole cause? Highly unlikely. Have we had any influence on it? Highly likely.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:51 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

CO2 is not a particularly strong greenhouse gas. The natural composition of Earth's atmosphere has a greater potential as a greenhouse gas than CO2. In other words, if the Earth's current atmosphere was entirely replaced with CO2 then the greenhouse effect would be reduced rather than increased.

Stating that increased CO2 will lead to global warming is like saying that adding a drop of beer to a shot of whiskey will make you drunk off your ass.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

You've never been drinking with Asians then, have you?

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:11 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

I sometimes hit the bars with a half Korean friend. Is there something for which I should be on the lookout?

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 20:14 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Hot Korean and Taiwanese chicks.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 20:57 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

About the most exotic thing we got around here are Nana's in babushkas.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:14 | Link to Comment James T. Kirk
James T. Kirk's picture

Wow, Dorm Room, you really got junked on that one. Although I certainly believe that the TPTB/NWO folks use global warming as a pretext for all sorts of evil, and although I hate the UN and its ilk, it always seemed pretty clear to me that some pretty ominous environmental stuff is happening on our ball of dirt. ZH has a lot of armchair experts on the economy, but I did not know they had so many armchair experts on science and the enviornment. I feel safer now the ZH experts have junked you to death. At least I won't be scorched by the sun's fire (as the book of Revelation says), while they implement the Mark of the Beast (as the book of Revelation also says).

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:16 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Even pro-global warming scientists have been forced to admit that there has been no temperature increase in the past 13 years even while CO2 emissions have continued to rise. Lean back in your armchair and consider that for a while.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:54 | Link to Comment James T. Kirk
James T. Kirk's picture

(me leaning back) - The link in the original thread discussed massive new Artic plumes of methane gas discovered by Russian scientists, and not CO2 emissions discussed (and emitted) by Al Gore. I did not even address global warming directly, only bad environmental damage in general. I am more concerned about be scorched by a rogue solar event, which seems closer to what is described in the Bible, than being warmed to death by C02. Back to your armchair, Davey.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 19:29 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

But those whom you called armchair scientists were discussing CO2. Forget the armchair, you get outside. Bad dog.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 19:49 | Link to Comment James T. Kirk
James T. Kirk's picture

Actually, I did not even see 95% of the comments I inadverdently addressed, including yours. I just saw Dorm Room with 25 junks, which I thought excessive given the link he provided, and I replied to him being junked only. I still can't get the hang of how these dang cascading posts prioritize themselves. I'll go outside now.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 20:01 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Just have a biscuit and relax, Rover. Maybe tomorrow we'll go to the park.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 22:23 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

CrockettAlmanac.com

Correct, in fact they have gone down.

The CO2 emissions IMHO, is due to the deforestation of the 3rd worlds forests being devoured for new farmlands.The deforestation of such humongous numbers and acreage of trees, and plants HAS to be a major factor.

Their no longer there to eat it.

That, and a 10sq mile area in the US that emits more than any two countries in one week.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:43 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Climate change is a myth perpetuated by Arabs and Exxon to keep the price of abiotic oil high.

Just kidding.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:44 | Link to Comment Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

The Arctic has an "ice shield"?

Whoculdanood.

 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:05 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Our world has too many ice holes.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Fargin iceholes. Fargin corksuckers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dv8tVxk6Nj4

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:50 | Link to Comment calgal
calgal's picture

Al gore get the fuk outta here u dipshitt scammng sak of polR bear vomit!
I mean cheeto munching mountain dew drinking wanking in mommys bAsement teen obamanazi troll!

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:50 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

I know a retired climatologist who was working on the tundra in Alaska for about twenty years.  He retired early about 3 years ago.  When you ask him questions regarding the tundra and methane, he just sadly shakes his head and refuses to discuss it at all.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

That must clear it all up for you then. 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:52 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Haha, like methane hasn't been released from hydrates for eons.  0.7 to 1.7 ppm increase? ROFLMAO.  

Then some "scientist" comes out and says:

""The concentration of atmospheric methane increased unto three times in the past two centuries from 0.7 parts per million to 1.7ppm, and in the Arctic to 1.9ppm. That's a huge increase, between two and three times, and this has never happened in the history of the planet," she added."

And pray tell how is she measuring the past amounts of methane in the air?  To a tenth of a ppm no less?

Fucking social scientists with instruments, that is all they are.  I bet you their RSD for method accuracy is probably +- a ppm.  Oh wait, they model half their shit and probably have not even evaluated the robustness of their methods anyways.

pods

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:25 | Link to Comment srsly-wtf
srsly-wtf's picture

Not that I agree with them, but they take samples of ice hundreds of feet down and look at the air trapped there.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:44 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

The Earth is 4.5 billion years old. How old are the ice caps?

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:55 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Correct.  They usually take ice cores and extrapolate what the air concentration was by proxy.  But, there are alot of issues with this.

I am not a geologist (chemist actually), but to me, looking at concentrations of 0-2 ppm in air presents alot of problems.  Mostly with sampling errors.  But even minimizing sampling errors, you will have substantial variation that would preclude you from making sweeping statements like the scientist quoted.  Especially if you base data is taken from ice cores.  

With temperature measurements the problem is that they are looking at noise level changes and extrapolating them out.  Or they are looking at temp records kept from many years ago, when the precision was far less.

Sure you can publish these studies, but when it has been determined that your peer review is compromised (the emails show this), then you are looking for trouble.  I could probably design a study which would yield supporting data that could prove whatever hypothesis I wanted to and could pass peer review.

Not my field though, and I am not really worried, because the coming collapse will put an end to all of this.

pods

 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:56 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Even the latest study which was touted as having "proved" the existence of global warming shows no increase in temperatures over the past 13 years.

 

Yesterday Prof Muller insisted that neither his claims that there has not been a standstill, nor the graph, were misleading because the project had made its raw data available on its  website, enabling others to draw their own graphs.

However, he admitted it was true that the BEST data suggested that world temperatures have not risen for about 13 years. But in his view, this might not be ‘statistically significant’,  although, he added, it was equally  possible that it was – a statement which left other scientists mystified.

‘I am baffled as to what he’s trying to do,’ Prof Curry said.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html#ixzz1gdvIHUVX
Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:04 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Bet you that we would have a far greater correlation with average insolation and temps.  But you cannot tax the sun.

pods

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:22 | Link to Comment srsly-wtf
srsly-wtf's picture

I got yer tipping point right here....

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 00:55 | Link to Comment Milestones
Milestones's picture

Massive kill-offs have been recorded where thousands of persons and animals were  exposed to a huge methane bubble in a lake in Africa (I believe) within the last 20 years. It is believed they all died off within a few hours after the bubble exploded when hitting the surface. It poses as probably the most likely extinction event the earth faces. This is a very deadly gas folks and there is billions of tons of just waiting for it to get warm enough to turn into a gas rather than a solid It is not a joke.           Milestones

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:29 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

It is just a deadline for the completion of the test. Doesn't mean the crash is in one week. If that was the case the deadline would be now.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:29 | Link to Comment YouGottaBeKidding
YouGottaBeKidding's picture

Seems European bankers will give a whole new meaning to "being down under"

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:29 | Link to Comment nhr215
nhr215's picture

I don't understand why Europe would have such a devestating economic effect. No European country is even in its top 5 of export markets. China, Japan, South Korea are 3 of the top 4 export markets for Australia.... Is this more likely hinting out a potential China hard-landing? Would make more sense, no? 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:32 | Link to Comment Martial
Martial's picture

CDS

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:41 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

It's all about the debt.

Lots of debt was accumulated to maintain a welfare society. 

Now the check is due and no one can pay and all the banks are interconnected. We have (as a culture) become 100% reliant on credit, so when the credit spiggot freezes society stops.

It doesn't get more concise then that.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:54 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Sure.  All the fault of the welfare society.  Nevermind JP Morgan aloe has $90Trillion in derivatives on their "books" while global GDP is around $60Trillion. 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:00 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

The banks and the welfare-warfare state collude in creating barriers to entry for those who would operate financial institutions honestly. Government is the problem.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 19:32 | Link to Comment hannah
hannah's picture

gov are not at fault ...neither are banks or the welfare state.....it is pancake.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:38 | Link to Comment SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Either you are a newer members or you clearly have not been reading a damn thing on this website.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:46 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

What sovereign debt did MF Global buy?

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:54 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

IIRC big position in Italian Bonds.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:30 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

the only Stress Tests i want done, is on rope and noose! trap door opens, your favorite politician_______, or bankster__________, falls thru, the jerk, two second delay, and the head snaps off! i think i peed myself 'cause i feel warm and illiquid! 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:37 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I'd like to add some liquidity then on the Bernank.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:56 | Link to Comment silverbullion
silverbullion's picture

Berwank for liquidity!

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:30 | Link to Comment SumSUN
SumSUN's picture

Cans of aerosol, street art, got some messages out, you're welcome bitchez.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:34 | Link to Comment Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

"Down Under" will take on a whole new meaning once the banking domino effect starts!

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:35 | Link to Comment ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

The collapse won't be televised, but it sure is planned carefully by the central bankers. With this information, it's pretty clear they have a specific date in mind to take the biggest dump in human history.

I have the sneaking suspcion though, they will try to get a 2 for 1 in. First the Euro, then 48 hours later, the US dollar.

 

 

 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:52 | Link to Comment Jena
Jena's picture

All stations will broadcast the Yule Log.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:05 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

Toss some euros on, for a beautiful multi-colored flame effect.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Jena
Jena's picture

Nice.  Bind a bunch together and you have the: "Euro-Log"

"When the night is special make it a Euro-Log for the biggest, brights flames of the longest duration."

Of course, dollars would burn nicely too, and they'd be greeeeen.

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