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Australian Banks Given One Week To Prepare For European "Meltdown"
Whereas previously we had heard extensive horror stories about banks being told to prepare for the end of the world in case the European summit (the latest and greatest one from last Friday which was supposed to find a cure for cancer among other things) failed, and even went so far as to read about preparations for trading in the drachma on a when issued basis, once the summit passed (and it was clear that media posturing would do nothing to fix what has already been a failure and it would be best to remove the threats of "reality" from the public's attention) all such "end of the world" speculation promptly disappeared - after all why remind people that things are now worse than ever. Until today. According to the Australian Finance Review (link - subscription required), banks down under "have been given 1 week by regulators to stress test how they would handle a spike in joblessness, plunge in home prices spurred by EU debt crisis." Aka a European "Meltdown." And since we don't have immediate access to the article, we leave it to Bloomberg First Word to describe for us what the article says:
- Australian Prudential Regulation Authority envision worst-case scenario of 12% unemployment, 30% drop in house prices, 40% fall in commercial property values, AFR says
- Banks will assume that write-offs, other mitigation measures are unavailable; later stress tests might allow for such steps, AFR says
- Australia’s banks have A$87.2b of exposure to Europe, or 2.7% of assets, with A$74.6b of it mostly tied to bank borrowers in France, Germany, Netherlands, AFR says, citing RBA statistics
Why is this notable? Because unlike before, when media reports were really a propaganda ploy to get European politicians to collaborate (what has now proven to be an impossible task), and nothing but a rhetorical device, this time around, the warning is for real. And, more importantly, we have a sense of urgency, courtesy of the 1 week deadline: the question then is is it really that bad, and does Europe truly have a little over a week for global banks to prepare for the inevitable fall out?
Lastly, how long until our own prudent leaders decide it may be time to push the Stress Test scheduled for next year forward, just in case the "unthinkable" does happen, and US banks end up getting stampeded even as the rest of the world is already prepared for a worst case scenario?
We are confident Tim Geithner will get right back to us asap on all of these open items.
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Unfortunately I think you are right. I USED to think that once the Euro went down we would have roughly 2 weeks to prepare. Now I think they will hide it until the last minute and collapse everything with days or even hours. That way they can push through global currency/global bank during the panic.
Unfortunately I think you are right. I USED to think that once the Euro went down we would have roughly 2 weeks to prepare. Now I think they will hide it until the last minute and collapse everything with days or even hours. That way they can push through global currency/global bank during the panic.
Amazing what a simple youtube search reveals about what Australian banks are actually holding...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJB4frVnilQ
Just think. This Eurogedon could easily be avoided simply by letting the Germany return to the DEM and letting the rest of the Euroland revalue.
But I guess the European socialist politicians and their Marxist economic advisors ... (oops, I should have said neo-Keynsian) need to prove that this time a political construct with it's embedded inherant contradictions can work..... really.
And they are willing to bring down he entire global banking system to prove their point. Like they say in New York, "Go figure".
It's Krugman's baby sitter co-opt on a grand scale.
I'd strongly consider fading this.
These leaked announcements are always put out for some reason you and I aren't aware of.
What's today's TED spread.....EEEEEEEK.
One more week of procrastinating the inevitable. End of week approaches, we just need another 10 days to solve these issues. Cycle repeats.
house prices will fall in aussy land ? Never.
Australia is different. They have golden beaches, are girt by sea and are the new super power. Property prices always go up in Australia, so look out for the 60-100 year mortgages. Prices will double in two years invest now or miss out!
Ah, the National Association of Realtors (U.S.) has an Australian branch, I see!
The song remains the same ...
"Australia is different. They... are the new super power."
Huh?! They'll be China's little bitch is what they'll be...
"Australia is different. They... are the new super power."
Huh?! They'll be China's little bitch is what they'll be...
Think you'll find that was sarc Mr Pink...China owns more of the US than the AUS (for now at least), plus as part of the new US GLOBAL BATTLEFIELD, next year we're getting 2,500 marines at a base in Darwin, so we'll all be subject to NDAA s.1867 here, just like you will be there. There are already FEMA style camps built here.
Add to the equation the (absolutely essential for the US Mil/CIA) Pine Gap Comms (and fck knows what else) base...out in the middle of the desert near Alice Springs.
USCV Australia raised a whole new set of allegiance flags last month, whilst the ol' mate Obomber tossed a prawn on the barbie with the redhead in Darwin, where he was inspecting the new barracks. Aussie troops have fought alongside US forces in every major conflict this century, and apparently that looks set to continue...and continue, and continue, and continue...in the new style WW3 endless MIC profit scenario.
True our economy is much more dependent on China's imports (our resources) than the US's, but the US is much more dependent on Chinese exports. I believe that the US economy couldn't have lasted even this long if not for such cheap goods and tools flooding in from China, as it awaited the time - now arriving- when outsourcing so much US manufacturing capacity come back to bite US asses. (Globalist Objective: moderately increase Chinese wages and slash US wages to parity).
Australia's unlikely to be China's bitch, anymore than any other country in the world where the US Empire has stabbed the land with it's flag. Question is, how long will this insane militarisation of the planet, and the utterly devastating over-consumption of finite resources allow for this kind of 'stand-off' theatre.
And how will the endgame play out next year before the owners of the 4th Reich Agenda21 plan to spring the trap on all the rest of us.
That would be some shit. A meltdown right after almost every christian in the world has just spent, at a minimum, all their discretionary income.
Christian? What does Consumermas have to do with Jesus?
You mean 'Judeo-Christians' since true Christians never celebrate Christmas.
Christmas means "Christ's Mass" and a mass is specifically referred to as a celebration.
With all respect, so what... that doesn't mean true Christians celebrate Christmas.
Are you the arbiter of who is and is not a true Christian? Did you ever read the book that says, "judge not lest ye be judged?"
Who's judging? I'd call it leading by example. (BTW..History channel has a interesting piece on the origin of Christmas. Turns out it should probably be called Paganmas)
The story of Jesus is itself based on pagan deities such as Tammuz, Attis, Adonis and Mithra.
It is no wonder that you defend the so called 'Judeo-Christians', given that you clearly cannot distinguish between the real and fake Christ or true and false Christianity, not even to speak of other false religions.
How do you determine which of the sacred texts, all of which claim divine inspiration, is correct? How does your faith in one particular interpretation of one specific text discount the faith held by others?
In the end, faith is a personal decision which is why I took issue with your claim to know who is a true believer of the true God and who is not.
@CrockettAlmanac.com In terms of your first question, it is done through a science that is called Textual Criticism. In terms of the second, a truthful Biblical translation for one points out several differences between what is taught in ‘Judeo-Christianity’ and what was taught by the First Fruits or first century Christians and the real/true Jesus Christ. There are too many differences to list here (and Christian Law forbids to do it in public), but it would be safe to say that Christianity based on a saving knowledge of the truth (epignosis) is almost the exact opposite of what is teached in ‘Judeo-Christianity’. There are for one various differences in terms of what is taught when it comes to Eschatology. The first century Christians were for example theistic preterists.
Yes, it is entirely your personal choice to be persuaded in the true Jesus Christ or not, to follow Him or not, to be damned or not. However, your personal choice doesn’t change or affect the immutable Laws set by God to any extent or diminish the authority those who choose to follow Him have received to rule and reign here on earth. I don’t want to start a verse-to-verse or any argument here, but if you claim to be a Christian, you should know that God commands us for one not to “…be persuaded by every mentality, but test the mentalities, if they are of God, because many false prophets have gone forth into the world” (I John 4:1 AST) and to receive “…the Word with all readiness, examining the Scriptures daily if these things were so” (Acts 17:11; cf. Eph. 5:10 AST). Why would God command us to test the mentalities if it was not needed or if it was impossible? Let it not be! Furthermore: “Every Scripture is God-breathed and profitable for teaching, for reproof, for correction, for instruction in justice, so that the man of God may be perfect, fully furnished for every good action” (II Tim. 3:16-17 AST).
In addition to the above, you need to remember that just as you are offended by those who don’t celebrate Christmas, they are likewise offended by the fact that you celebrate Christmas. It thus at the end of the day becomes a question of who is correct according to the true/real Jesus Christ, the True and Living God, the Bread of Life, because nothing short of the Truth will set us free. Personal or subjective opinions don’t count, because then we usurp His authority by being in the business of setting up false standards and judge the kind of judgment that He absolutely deplores.
I believe it was the first "Zeitgeist" that pointed out how many of the middle east religions have many of the same legends concerning the many different G-Ds there were to compare that surrounding Jesus.
It's been almost 50 years since I read "The Golden Bough." Great book. Milestones
I ran across The Golden Bough while undertaking an in depth study of Eliot's The Wasteland. A very valuable book for that task as well as being a great work in its own right.
Ah, Fraser's Golden Bough - i read it in an old library once and my Cthulhu Mythos went up 5%.
Anyway is this god botherer scrap over? it was a bit limp.
@CrockettAlmanac.com I use the objective standard contained in a truthful translation of God's Word to determine who is Christian and who is not. Have you not read for one that we will even judge the angels? How much more matters of this life? Yes, I know about "judge not lest ye be judged", but unlike 'Judeo-Christians' I don't twist it to my own damnation. In the context of God's Word we are not allowed to use subjective or personal standards to determine whether someone is right or wrong. God is the Judge and true Christians repeat His Just Judgements. Why dont you tell the traffic cop that he may not judge you when he writes you a ticket? You won't, because he has not made the rules. He is just an agent of the state or someone that is helping to enforce the laws set by a higher authority. Why is such a simple concept perfectly understood when dealing with Satanic world governments and their organs/agents, but when it comes to God's Government/Body Politic/Church here on earth it is lost on the 'Judeo-Christians'? To tell me not to judge, in the sense that I am not allowed to repeat God's Just Judgements or take God on His Word when he tells me who are against Him and what is right and wrong, is to transgress God's Just Judgement: ""judge not lest ye be judged". And no, it is not my personal interpretation. The Word of God is not open to personal interpretation.
Christmas is a man made tradition and an abomination to the true Christ and His little flock, because it promotes universal salvation and love for the world, among other hideous practices. I am not going to go into the details here or entertain this (or the above) further, since we're for one not allowed to give the food of the children to the dogs. Period.
Ah, so you are the arbiter of who is and who is not a true Christian. And you manage to throw the majority of practicing Christians under the bus without being judgmental. Bully for you!
@CrockettAlmanac.com You either didn't read a word of what I've written or God has given you over to a reprobate mind, a mind that doesn't understand the most basic of Christian principles.
I did read what you had written. You apparently did not. You said:
And yet here you are rehashing things again despite your pledge not to do so. A man is as good as his word.
I was in specific reference to the issue of Christmas and in terms of your charge of “judge not, lest ye not be judged”. I do admit though that I indirectly and unintentionally did take it a wee bit further in terms of the two mentioned issues after your responses warranted it, especially in terms of the questions posed. However, first of all, it doesn't take away from Biblical truth, and secondly, I was well within the boundaries set by Christian Law, especially as far as dealing with those on the outside is of a concern. In fact, like a typical 'Judeo-Christian' you have chosen to attack the messenger instead of refuting what was said in a logical and rational manner. If you did read what I've written, you wouldn't respond in the manner in which you did, which completely ignored the valid points which I've made. Again, it is a typical 'Judeo-Christian' response and proof that true Christians will never be in the same bed as 'Judeo-Christians' and other Satanic counterfeits of the true/real Christianity as practised by the First Fruits or first century Christians, the very same Christianity that was practised by the Founding Fathers of America (before they compomised Biblical truth, which has now brought America and the rest of the world on its knees). Period.
Dude, I'm an atheist. And you think that I am a typical "Judeo-Christinan?" That's simply brilliant. Are all of your "valid points" so completely off the mark?
PS -- Thanks for the dog food. Woof!
Well Mate, in all fairness, you know what it means when they say it walks like a duck and and quacks like a duck... you acted more like a typical "Judeo-Christian" than an outright atheist. Shame on you! However, it doesn't take away from the validity of any of the points which I have made. Now eat your Christmas cake and try to be a real atheist. Cool? :-)
Yeah, and war is peace, freedom is slavery, and ignorance is strength. Blah, blah, blah.
Here, learn a little:
http://www.simpletoremember.com/vitals/Christmas_TheRealStory.htm
Masses are "offered", not "celebrated".
PPT putting on their Santa suits as we speak.
I wonder if Santa will pass the stress test.
The Chairsanta administers the stress test.
Bernanke with your nose so bright, won't you guide my chopper flight?
I kind of think not. All the "positive" news that came out today, and equities could barely manage to finish in the green. I'm thinking the Grinch will win the day this season.
What's the paper play here for someone who's a retail trader and not all the access to instruments like a hedge fund?
Short euro/japan kind of play I'd imagine but does anyone have any spreads/suggestions to profit from what (on december 19th) might be d-day?
I've got FAZ obviously and a few other puts but I'm wondering what others are doing to prepare for this inevitable collapse and the contagion that will ensue.
Thanks in advance.
"Gun Sales Hit An All-Time Holiday High"
http://www.kwch.com/news/kcpq-gun-sales-hit-holiday-record-20111213,0,7714885.story
Nuff' said
I'm opening my bottle of Scotch on the 22nd so that is most likely doomsday, i'm still a teapot.
Just bought TZA (again) today... Not looking back...
"Boys, tomorrow show up for practice with full pads, helmets, kidney protectors, and rib protectors on!"
"Our school, 'The Little Sisters of the Poor' has the biggest game of our life Saturday against LSU. It might not be pretty. Those who survive practice will be allowed to start and receive horrendous punishment."
Wasn't there a "deadline" for that EU summit last week?
OK, maybe I am stupid, but I pointed out yesterday the trend in the euro NS IT WAS A GOOD COUNTER TRADE TO BUY UDN RIGHT NOW and see it it goes back to the trend. I took some profits on the trade before, but looked at udn going below 26.99 as confirmation of a break down, buyt I still think yiu are going to see a slow melt as the europeans will buy to sell into strength, and the algo's really work hard to prevent break downs (except flash crashes. watch them work back to trend. besides I see my long term
Isn't that similar to the stress tests requirements that were conducted in the U.S., U.K., and the rest of the EU? I like ZH quite a bit but let's not stoop down to the sensationlistic headlines that others are famous for...
At any rate, better late than never for the Aussies, I was wondering what's taken them so long to stress test their banks?
I agree but it is the "one week" deadline that is most alarming about this stress test.
Almost time to send Timmy back to Europe to plead with them to follow our example. lol
Iran is saying they hijacked the US drone
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1215/Exclusive-Iran-hija...
I think bob_dabolina demonstrated that the drone was a fake a couple of days ago.
worst-case scenario of 12% unemployment....
hahahahahahahahahahhahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!
That struck your funny bone.
spas--youre quite verbose these days...you acquire a smart phone with the zh app? or maybe on vacation this week?
I'm on vacation every week.
There is urgency but I would project it into a Q1 meltdown if that's what they are getting ready for. After all, these are regulators and it takes time to collect and process data and formulate strategies and policy.
Also, considering this is Australia, don't discount a China meltdown or blowup in the same time frame. Either will affect North American markets to a huge extent.
And the urgency is a real red flag whether markets will give them the time they need or not.
Were going to see up close, the real shock and awe. Just the way Americans like it. Reality Style.
Fup fup fup fup fup fup fup fup fup fup fup fup fup
Helicopters warming up.
Regardless of the parameters of Stress Tests or their scheduling, the collapse of the Euro will not be a drill. It's the difference between playing a video game, and trying to stay alive in a live fire zone.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
Great blog. The unbridled greed of the few in the banking industry has resulted in great damage to Australian and global economies and society. They say no good deed goes unpunished, and the reverse seems to have happened here. Their bad deeds have been rewarded with bailouts, blame shifting and bonuses. It makes me sick.
I wonder about the psychology of Australian bulls and property investors in this environment. Do they really think this is a new paradigm where housing bubbles never burst. Reading the spruiking property bull comments below, you'd have to say YES!
Classic Signs of a Housing Bubble
These people live in a world of delusion, so what hope is there for society? How can you ever change the minds of people like that, people who are that sure the property bubble is a myth? I reckon Australia is doomed!
The majority of Australians who concern themselves with the economy consider us to be the bastion of good economic management (nevermind the fact that our current government went through a $96bn budget surplus and pushed us into a $100bn budget deficit in fairly short order), and have "fundamentals" that allow us to have infinite growth.
I can't even begin to imagine how people can consider that a possibility. They clearly can't think outside of their own small town, and have no idea that we rely far more on China, south east Asia and Europe than they do on us. Crash, boom, bang indeed.
there are no polar bears
in the Straight of Hormus...
concidentally or not, the latest Fed balance sheet features a return of QE - namely the acquisition of $30 plus bn in MBS, paid for via typing up bank reserves.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/
I don't see how Australian banks will be able to 'prepare' their depreciating assets in 1000 years let alone a week assuming that write-offs, other mitigation measures are unavailable.
They are totally reliant on the central bank anyhow, so this article makes no sense. It is probably just to obfuscate the fact that their assets have depreciated considerably.
Australian banks have limited exposure to Euro sovereigns because their assets are made up almost entirely local real estate. There is no way they could handle a 30pct decline in house prices.
Barometer
There is no way they could handle a 30pct decline in house prices.
Why not?, they went up 50%+ in 36 months.
Can't handle, explain pls the ramifications for one of the wealthiest nations on earth.( their entire country is a virtual Goldmine).
The rents in my third world prairie town just keep on rising. It's cold as hell here. I welcome a 30% drop in Australian property values.
Australia is going to get it in the neck re commodities prices collapsing, bank funding drys up and their housing bubble explodes, not implodes, but explodes...
Awesome country though.
Just want to add that the rally last session was pathetic...even EU debt markets tried to get some. Pitiful. This market is going to collpase through it's aug/sept supports and nothing will stop it.
One of the best points I've seen on ZH in days! Keep these original thoughts coming!! :)
Collapse. Meltdown. Endgame yadi-yada-yada.
Impatience is a bitch!
The Australian housing bubble has already started to collapse. But you won't find any mention of it in the Australian press because the Aussie newspapers are heavily reliant on real estate advertising and so have to keep hyping the market.
But the collapse is happening right now in suburbs throughout the major cities, and this is starting to cause huge distress because Australian households are the most over-leveraged in the world. What's more, all mortgages in Australia are full-recourse so there is no option of walking away from the debt.
This is going to be uglier than the US subprime collapse.
Banks told to prepare for the worst
PUBLISHED: 16 Dec 2011 PRINT EDITION: 16 Dec 2011
Jonathan Shapiro and Andrew Cornell
Australian banks have been ordered to urgently stress test their ability to
withstand a sharp rise in unemployment, a collapse in the property market
and economic recession amid rising anxiety over the European debt crisis.
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has told banks to model
what would happen if the European meltdown spread to Australia through
a series of stress tests designed to ensure the strength of the local
banking system.
The regulator has given the banks just one week to model the impact of a
worst-case scenario resulting in contraction in gross domestic product, an
unemployment rate of 12 per cent, as well as a 30 per cent decline in
house prices and a 40 per cent drop in commercial property values.
Bank executives told The Australian Financial Review the worst case
scenario was extreme and difficult to model given the short weekend
deadline. “We think that’s probably part of the test,” said one senior
banker. “If you can’t do this modelling or say you’re not sure of the impact,
APRA will be onto it.”
The stress test has been prompted by an escalation of the European sovereign debt crisis that could lead to a global
recession and a hard landing in China.
It comes in the same week that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s deputy governor, Ric Battellino, warned that
Australia’s indirect exposure to Europe “through the effect on some of our important trading partners, could be
significant”.
The European Banking Authority was created in January this year to stress test troubled banks in the region. The
EBA released its latest quarterly stress test results earlier this month revising the capital shortfall to €114.7 billion
($151 billion).
The short notice and time frame allowed by APRA, particularly in light of negative comments from the RBA, indicates
the regulator is preparing for a difficult 2012.
Bank sources say there is no suggestion APRA is concerned about existing credit quality and assessment. Rather,
the authority is seeking to understand the impact of a severe external shock. The APRA missive has had bank
treasurers and risk officers scrambling in a week in which three of the big banks held annual meetings.
Australia’s banks have limited exposure to Europe, totalling $87.2 billion, or 2.7 per cent of assets, according to the
RBA. Of that amount, $74.6 billion is exposed to borrowers in core nations – France Germany and the Netherlands –
mostly to banks.
APRA, which declined to comment, has conducted stress tests on Australia’s banks in the past, as have international
agencies and credit raters.
In 2003, the regulator tested the banks’ resilience to a sharp fall in house prices. It concluded that while Australia’s
banks could withstand a sharp fall in property values, mortgage insurance providers would struggle to withstand
claims.
APRA again tested the banks in 2005 and 2006 to determine their ability to withstand a three-year stressed scenario
where unemployment rose to 8.75 per cent as house prices fell by 30 per cent.
While profits would decline as bad debts and funding costs increased, the banks would not lose money and could
withstand a short, sharp downturn because of their larger weighting to mortgages.
APRA did not discuss or make the findings public until long after the tests were conducted.
In recent months, independent stress tests have been conducted on the Australian banks in response to overseas
investors’ concerns that Australia’s high property prices and elevated levels of indebtedness left the nation’s lenders
exposed to a bursting of the housing bubble.
In January this year, Fitch Ratings conducted an independent stress test on Australia’s big four banks.
Fitch concluded that, in the event of a severe property downturn, the banks would be hit with cumulative losses of $6billion and a 25 per cent decline in operating profit over three years.
Credit analysts at investment bank Deutsche Bank also conducted an impact study on the major banks whereby
mortgage defaults rose by 9 per cent and housing prices fell by 30 per cent.
Deutsche Bank concluded the banks were unlikely to experience losses of more than $8 billion.
Both tests showed that low loan-to-value ratios, or the high level of equity within mortgages, provided a buffer in the
event of house prices falling sharply.
APRA’s latest test is clearly based on a worst-case scenario because it does not allow the banks to assume any
management mitigation.
Bankers believe the regulator will request modelling of a second and even third scenario.
“For example, the first round assumes no write-offs of bad debts, which means you can’t realise any tax losses,
leaving you with a deferred balance sheet asset but no capital relief,” one risk officer said.
“That’s not realistic and it guarantees them a bad outcome, but then we would expect APRA to work backwards to
see what impact mitigation measures by management might have. This first wave though is a pretty raw, theoretical
piece of work.”
with John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review
amanda drury...!..wink wink nudge nudge...!...amanda drury...
What about "American Epitaph" by Damien Darby?
http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/94223
Seems deflation is the crowded trade right now....I am not really buying it as the fallout from the house of cards falling
would be too chaotic and uncontrollable....this can will be kicked by an energizer bunny soon. Print or Die, Bitchez!...and
TPTB know it....
Long time reader, first time poster.
The Australian Economy is doomed.
Here are the reasons:
Europe/USA buys shit. China makes the shit for Europe/USA. Australia has the resources for China to make the shit.
Now, if Europe/USA slows down, they will stop buying shit, therefore China will stop making shit, therefore they will not need the resources from Australia.
If you go to www.abs.gov.au which is where all the stats are, have a look at some of the areas.
Here you will find that pretty much every state except for Western Australia is experiencing very very tough times. Western Australia pulls up the average so much that from an outside perspective it looks like everything is rosy. This is because all the mines are in WA, hence they have very low unemployment, and the incomes keep rising in this state.
The Island Australia has been fortunate enough to have a high Australian Dollar to keep inflation down, since pretty much everything (except commodities) is imported. However, when (not if) the Australian Dollar falls true inflation will become very evident. The house prices are amongst the most expensive in the world. I am now seeing properties being on the market for a very long time, especially commercial property. Commercial property is usually some of the first indicators that there is an issue.
From the outside it looked like Australia 'escaped' the recession. But it didn't. It just postponed the recession since it artificially boosted first home owners grants during the essential period (i.e. giving money to people who would have bought a house now) as well as let all the Chinese buy property in Australia. Fast forward to now, the people who would have bought a house now, have already bought a house. There are no more buyers.
Due to the duopoly of supermarkets in Australia, they have forced prices up for food.
So, if the Australian Dollar begins to wobble, the Chinese will sell their properties. This will cause properties to begin to fall in value. Kids who have bought a house realise that they are paying repayments on a $500-$800k house that is now only worth $400-500k.
I have huge shorts on Australian Banks, Australian Dollar versus Swiss Franc, as well as various other industries. I have accumulated silver/gold.
I feel sorry for my friends who have bought houses in this outrageously over valued housing market just because 'we needed to get the foot in the door'. I am paying $400 per week for a 1 bedroom apartment above a shop with my girlfriend, what the fuck. I know of many people who are spending 50% of their wage on housing...
Everytime when I see international articles writing about Australia, I laugh, since if only they knew how bad the situation was. If only the politicians didn't lie. They are stuck, they now need to lower interest rates but they can't because of the rampant inflation. They will lower interest rates to try and keep the bubble bubbling, but it will only make things worse since people will realise, hold up, why am I paying so much for food, petrol, electricity... Where are all the damn jobs? 25% of university graduates cannot find a job. Out of the remaining 75%, how many can get a job in their field.
Now for the final part, if things do start to wobble, and the currency begins to fall as the demand for the only thing the country has got going for itself (resources) is nolonger needed, welcome to the jungle. Luckily in Australia we cannot own guns, otherwise mayhem will unfold.
Sorry for the rant in advance, it's not very well structured but I will get better as I post more often.
And to Tyler, start investigating www.abs.gov.au and you will find some dirty secrets.
Same here (long time reader first time poster)
What I can see in the statistics is that Australia has a bit more then a 1/3 of the population of the UK and a continent (almost the size of Europe) to live in. They have moste of the commodities they need too keep the factories going and start producing there own "stuff" they need. So even if TSHF then Australia has a better chance to be better off then the EZ and even the US.
What are you talking about? I own several.
Good call whereisthefuture, I concur. I'm in SW Oz near Margaret River. Our region relies on tourism and wine. Since GFC1 and high AUD, tourism and wine industry have all but collapsed.
Property prices here have dropped 15% over the past 2 years, but there's further to go, although the FIFO (fly in fly out) miners are cashed up and like this area.
This is indicative of entire country, where a 2 tier economy has emerged with mining (West Australia and Queensland) paying extraordinary and inflationary wages that no-one else can keep up with. (except the polititians who got payrises of between $40k and $120k yesterday...yes that's not a misprint. 'The redhead JuLIAR' will now paid more than Obomber and Cameron).
The one redeeming aspect of survival here is that there's a fair amount of space and bush-tucker (wild food), and lot's of people know how to camp 'comfortably'. Plus with the climate spread from sub-temperate in the south to tropical in the north, and enough oil and gas to be self sufficient as a nation, we could make the transition to sustainability relatively quickly if the pollies had the bottle to decide that route.
Would be interesting to see though, which other nation/s decided that they had rights to a piece of that too...
At the end of the day, we are in the Asia Pacific...
For those of you who haven't been to Australia, if someone blind folds you and takes you to Sydney or Melbourne, and then takes off the blind fold, it looks like you are in China or in an Arab nation. Most tourists will only see the city, but not venture out to the suburbs (real Australia). Real Australia is predominately Asian these days. In some suburbs the shop signs are larger in Mandarin than in English.
China is now buying pretty much every ounce of Gold/Silver being mined. They are currently buying food companies (i.e. Manassen), mining companies, schools, pretty much everything.
So, in answer to your statement, China already has decided that they have a right to Australia. They already know that when they run out of food & resources, Australia will be their bitch. Why do you think Australia just bought US Troops to try and protect us (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-17/china-indonesia-wary-of-us-troops-...).
My Australian girlfriend is just learning German at the moment so then we can move to Switzerland.
Margaret River is beautiful by the way, I'd love to buy some land to have an organic farm there... pity it's still way overpriced.
Switzerland.
LOL.
The most boring race in europe.
Yeah , go on then fuck off you suicidal bastard.
OZ is theeee place to be for the wheels coming off the world.
As long as labour dont get too much longer in ...
Every day I deal with a new set of people that I've almost always not met before, and most days I have at least one detailed conversation with some random person, about all this stuff. Sometimes I bring it up, often they bring it up, and are delighted to talk to someone who also gets it.
The impression I get is a lot of everyday people have educated themselves about the financial, economic and political realities about to smack us down.
I never tell people I read or comment at zerohedge, but I'm fairly sure some of the people I talk to do, because they really understand the whole thing. If I get these sorts of conversations regularly, this tells me a lot of people have been getting ready, and warning others about the MSM/Govt grand pop-delusion generator.
People who bought houses as investments, are increasingly trying to sell ... and have been for a while ...
Element,
wont post the link - you'll see why
but google 'nymag , the dow zero insurgency'
its relevant to your above post.
Too Big To Fail?
They've already failed, we are the proof ... cheers BD
Watching the ASX200 now. Volatile trading. The illusion of equity bids from broken US markets...and yet commodities got hammered! Someone is trying to short the ASX.
Read The Daily Reckoning blog where Bill Bonner and his staff regularly report the real numbers on the Australian economy---miners, banks, etc.
RE sales and prices are dropping and delinquincioes are rising. Bonner points out the historic relationship of median home price to median income is way out of whck...the same problem the USA has that caused the collapse.
Add to that the Austral Gubberments intervention in the housing market by handing out $16,000 in tax credits to new home buyers and zero down financing (similar to America) to artificially prop the market up and, well, you know what happens next....The Great Correction, as Bonner calls it.
hold your breath for one week!
As Noda Declares Fukushima Accident Over, US Deputy Secretary of State Congratulates, Offers Support in Decontamination
Thomas Nides, who happens to be in Japan, congratulates the Noda administration on the end of the nuclear accident marked by a cold shut down "state". He said in the press conference that he had heard it one day in advance from Japan's Foreign Minister that the Fukushima plant had achieved the state of cold shutdown. Hahahahaha.
http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/
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... all betters nows
I added the actual URL to the AFR article, a VIDEO explaining the aussie bank issue and added Ron Paul's report on the earlier Loans by the Fed to......aussie banks. Enjoy! http://inkom.com.au/blog/australian-banks-have-1-week-prepare-europe-armageddon
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Thunder believes that any firm that has to hock it's sh*t via forum spam, is at best a worthless scam not worthy of anyone's time.
Thanks for your contribution kevin22.