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Austria, Belgian Bonds Crushed
Yesterday we posted a note on Austria, titled "35 Seconds Of TV Air Time Explaining Why Austria's AAA Rating Is Doomed" which among other things demonstrated in very vivid fashion, why courtesy of its massive Hungarian and broadly Eastern European exposure, an Austrian downgrade is virtually imminent. The follow up news that the Austrian Central Bank has henceforth forbidden any incremental Eastern European loan issuance is merely the cherry on top, and confirms that Austria's biggest banks are now on the verge. As the chart below demonstrates which shows Austria benchmarks (which like Spain we expect will be promptly changed to a lower yielding piece to buy 1-2 days of breathing room), the hammering has returned. And elsewhere, Belgium is also getting annihilated as the ECB is now left with far too many plates to juggle.
Austria
Broad European bond yield change:
For those who missed it, here is a TV ad explaining Raifeissen bank loan issuance practices
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Core crush!
That commercial is terrifying.
Supernova debt explosion. Ageing Ponzi debt scheme collapses briefly under gravitational pull of the real assets, before incredible amounts of fiat money are printed in a short period of time.
bopbopbopbopbobpbobpbopbopbopbopbopbobpbop
Time to duck...
uh...ummmm...winning?
Creditanstalt all over again.
How fitting it would be if the second Great Depression was triggered in the same country (Austria) and by the same mechanism (Bank Failure) as the first?
History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes (Closely, in this case).
Excerpt(s) from "The Big Short":
"In Bakersfield, CA., a Mexican strawberry picker with an income of $14,000/yr and no English was lent every penny he needed to buy a house for $724,000."
"By May 2007, however, there was a growing dispute between Howie Hubler and Morgan Stanley. Amazingly, it had nothing to do with the wisdom of owning $16 Billion in complex securities whose value ultimately turned on the ability of a Las Vegas stripper with five investment properties, or a Mexican strawberry picker with a single $750,000 home, to make rapidly rising interest payments."
"'Who takes out a home loan and doesn't make the first payment?' asked Danny Moses, putting the matter one way. 'Who the fsck lends money to people who can't make the first payment?' asked Eisman, putting it another."
Apparently, Europeans have been playing the same games.
Strawberry pickers provide a service. Bankers, not so much.
My version:
Strawberry pickers are good for the economy. Bankers are overpaid parasites.
Here in the UK, the government wants first-time buyers to be able to get mortgages with just 5% equity.
Fucking great idea, considering the bubble never was allowed to burst. They simply lowered the base rate to make housing "more affordable".
The Govt needs to let the market set a fair rate anbd assess a fair risk...
"Oh, you said 14 THOUSAND. Classic mixup!"
Picture of the stripper, please.
Could they just hurry up and hit the TLTs already?
I didn't know Bahney Fwank was working in Europe.
Graph is Commerzbank, not Austria.
You are correct, but nevertheless, Belgian 10Yr yields are up 3.75% on the day to a 3.518% yield. Not good.
Indeed, similar in Austria. Graph here http://vnistor.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Austira-10.png
Fucking scary commercial!
Just like in 1873. It is Vienna bank panic time!
So we have a full-blown European meltdown on our hands; no SuperCommittee plan; budget "cuts" coming sometime in the future at a later date and time which is not now or next year or likely ever; and, a crumbling US economy.
From it I infer: Crashes in all worldwide equity markets heading into and throughout 2012; collapsing Treasury yields in the US along with a massively-rising dollar as worldwide *investors* "fly" to "safety"; riots and other social unrest taking place in Europe, culminating in a spectacular EU dismantling.
All fun and games have been concluded. It's time for somebody to lose an eye.
Our bureau of tourisme only welcomes this kind of free advertising for Belgium!
....free.....
Take our guided tour and receive free bonds and dexia certs ?
Tu felix Austria
i dont see how they are going to keep this together thru Christmas , let alone Obamas relection in 2012
Watch and see the machine of propaganda unfold itself and create wonders!
They are planning a war on Iran to distract the sheeple from their own lives.
For those of you who invest in an IRA or for long term goals, theres a better approach than buy,hold,hope. Stocks follow the economy so analyzing the economy, specifically the factors that are "leading indicators" and having exposure to equities only when the economy is headed in the right direction and avoiding equities in favor of safe haven baskets is a much more logical approach. And missing the major drawdowns is the only way to help ensure meeting your goals. If you are interested in investing in a portfolio that tactically invests in equity and safe haven baskets via ETF's automatically, please email me at:
eclark@breakaway-partners.com
and I'll add you to the weekly market commentary & portfolio update distribution list. Its free to add you and you can follow along our model and our views. We have been RISK-OFF since 6/30 so have missed all this wicked volatility. Currently invested in short duration treasury baskets as flight to safety drives interest in our debt.
Tyler needs to kick this cheapskates ass off ZH. If this company had any ethics, they would pay for an ad. If they behave this way now, who in hell would trust them with ten cents real money? MFGlobal anyone?
alpine waffle stomp dem bonds, BiCheZ!
Oooohhh, the phrase 'alpine waffle' makes me want waffles and schnitzel with maple syrup. How are rates in Canada??
Wait until French bonds get destoryed.
libertarian86.blogspot.com
Probably a mistake for Austria to quit loaning to Eastern Europe.
An old Chinese saying suggests that if you find yourself riding a tiger it is best not to dismount or you will be eaten.
China and USA understand this.
Dont hit the breaks. Accelerate mother fucker!
Tyler that first chart is Commerzbank isn't it?
"culminating in a spectacular EU dismantling" = war
Is this the dumbest commercial ever produced?
I bet, even the Yanks cannot beat this?
Mimes in white foundation, wearing black combiné tights, black ballet slippers, horizontal stripped shirts, juggling plates? Wearing berets? On a unicycle? In a Toulouse Lautrec painting?
How Yurpeen!
A one day blip is not a crash. Look at the longer-term charts here:
U.S. Q3 GDP Revised Down To 2%, Europe Continues Down Ski Slope
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/11/22/u-s-q3-gdp-revised-down-to-2-europe-continues-down-ski-slope/