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Average Duration Of Unemployment Rises To New All Time High

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As noted previously, one key fly in the ointment in an otherwise better than expected jobs report (in which the participation rate also trended higher for a welcome change) was the manufacturing jobs data, which declined by 13,000. Perhaps at the end of the day this is the most important data point, since while declining government jobs at the end of the day is a good thing, government workers don't actually create anything of value for the economy. And as the chart below demonstrates, the long term trend is certainly not our friend. The second "fly", and the one that will certainly be used as a talking point by politicians, was the average unemployment duration. At 40.5 weeks, it just hit a new all time record.

Unemployment Duration:

Manufacturing Jobs:

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:07 | 1749232 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

It'll keep setting new highs no doubt. There is no turnaround in sight, folks.

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:40 | 1749381 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

it is absurd to say that government workers create nothing of value for the economy: education, infrastructure, law enforcement, scientific research, information gathering and dissemination; the list is long and, in many cases, uniquely valuable.  the free market is not perfect and requires skilled and honest regulation to maximize its benefits.  that after decades of waste, fraud and abuse government's mission has fallen into disrepute is not a reason to dismiss the mission at a theoretical level.  it is reason to resolve to achieve better government.  imo we are at a period similar to the late nineteenth century when monopolistic corporate trusts in league with corrupt governments at many levels gave rise to a countervailing social mood and corrective actions.

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 10:32 | 1749560 SeanJKerrigan
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imo we are at a period similar to the late nineteenth century when monopolistic corporate trusts in league with corrupt governments at many levels gave rise to a countervailing social mood and corrective actions.


What your describing is the return of the 4th Turning.  Specifically, the tone this time around is Fascism vs. Liberalism.  So I'm inclined to agree with your sentiment (if not necessarily the time frame).

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 10:59 | 1749662 tmosley
tmosley's picture

That is like saying that a communist government worker is valuable because they provide everything in the economy.  The point you are missing is that they do it BADLY.  Quality of education is inversely proportional to government interference, the infrastructure is a mess and falling apart (vs private toll roads, which are pristine), law enforcement has become federalized (moved away from the local level), and further, police state policies elevate cops above the law, scientific research is ruled by the foolish rules and regulations of academia (which makes conducting trails extremely expensive and greatly slows down progress), and I'm not sure what "information gatehring and dissemination" is, but I don't like the sound of it, and private companies would do a better job if it was worth doing.

No, the decades of waste and fraud we have experienced are not a reason to abandon the concept of a government as monopoly on force.  The reason to abandon it is because it ALWAYS happens.

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 14:38 | 1750507 eureka
eureka's picture

"government workers don't actually create anything of value for the economy."

"Government workers" INCLUDE MILITARY, POLICE, FIREMEN, CIA, FBI, NAS, TSA etc - meaning, that added to YOUR DICTUM, Tmosley- that "they do it BADLY" - we should then completely dismantle U.S. federal armed forces, federal covert agencies and law enforcement... why not go all the way and dismantle the U.S. union...?

Dismantle the U.S. - and let each locale runs its own, local agencies - and private law enforcement - as each region and locale sees fit.

 

 

 

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 12:19 | 1749915 covert
covert's picture

it will keep getting worse until the head of state begins starving.

http://covert3.wordpress.com

 

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:06 | 1749238 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

bye bye QE3. so long.  see ya....at S&P 800.

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:08 | 1749251 Living_Stone
Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:08 | 1749249 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You know what? I really don't give a shit anymore. As long as the value of gold and silver go (stated otherwise the buck goes down{I had to throw that caveat in there before some anal PM person corrected my lingo})up I'm happy. Screw this market.

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:10 | 1749260 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

Personally, I'm hoping the value of PMs go down - merely so I can lay my hands on as much of it as possible before it goes to infinity and beyond...

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:11 | 1749266 Stumpy
Stumpy's picture

You mean the price of PM, right?

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:09 | 1749257 LawsofPhysics
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Just a curiousity but this chart looks a lot like the stock indices of several brewing companies.  Ah yes, drinking is the curse of the working class, even when they are not employed.

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:10 | 1749259 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

We created 1 or 2 jobs. The world cheers. Sad times. 

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:13 | 1749275 thunderchief
thunderchief's picture

Stop pissing in everone's Cherios.

100k+ jobs created.  New jobs.

Leading edge alternative energy 21st century jobs.

The recession is over.

It's finally over!

Sigh...

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:16 | 1749283 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

That was sarcasm, right? Let's not forget the 45K striking workers who returned to the workforce that buffered those numbers.

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:16 | 1749286 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

No worries, Goldman's Kostin on CNBS saying SPX 1300 coming and recession all gone, bye-bye.

The only "expert" those idiots have left to roll out is an old wheezing man from Connecticut who uses rulers for upward predictions.

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:21 | 1749298 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

nice visual....lulz

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:53 | 1749430 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Don't forget that little weasel Thomas Lee...

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:21 | 1749300 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Time to lay on some more longs before the good news gets around and the melt-up begins!

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:21 | 1749302 kito
kito's picture

Face it people, no recession. Slow growth is the soup de jour

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:54 | 1749438 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

The world cannot afford slow growth

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 10:53 | 1749637 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL!  How unfortunate for this FINITE world,  hedge accordingly.

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 16:54 | 1751120 I did it by Occident
I did it by Occident's picture

Damn that Red Queen, we are running faster but it is not faster enough.  :(

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:22 | 1749307 gnomon
gnomon's picture

An Octogenarian with arteries as supple as fiberboard waiting for a random piece of plaque to break loose so as to just end it all-THAT is our economic situation.

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:32 | 1749345 kito
kito's picture

warren buffett?

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:43 | 1749388 Dr. Richard Head
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I'm sorry.  Your  answer needs to be in the form of a question.  We were looking for "Who is Warrent Buffet?"  We would have also accepted "What is the US economy?" or "Whay is Keynesian Economics."

Onto double Jeopary.  Our catagory is Anal Probing.  The size of the anal probe the serfs are willing to take in the ass for the sole purpose of supporting the cronies.

What is Quantitaive Easing, Alex.

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:22 | 1749309 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

Why dont they fire everyone in Washington? That is what I would do.

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:27 | 1749327 eurusdog
eurusdog's picture

It's amazing that anyone even considers the 103k print legitimate. 45k striking workers returned, 13k manufacturing jobs lost and 40.5 week average duration. So we added about 45k part-time, burger flipper, non benefit, can't buy groceries, need to see the doc but can't, utilities turned off, moving in with family jobs. Hip hip horray!

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 10:04 | 1749467 poor fella
poor fella's picture

So, glass half full?

When this describes the "99%" then we'll have a problem. All the free markets need is to be left alone: business as usual, give stagnation a little more time, GDP muddling along, SNAP benefits until The Turnaround, at least our financial system is healing. 

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 16:59 | 1751142 I did it by Occident
I did it by Occident's picture

Yeah, but doesn't the economy need to create 150k jobs/month just to stay even (due to population growth, etc.)?  103k-150k= -47k.  Not sure that means healing per se. 

 

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:31 | 1749339 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

The National debt has doubled since the crisis and  last month we "apparently, for now" added 103,000 jobs in a country with over 300 million people. To put it in perspective, Canada added 60,900 jobs over the same time frame in a country of about (aboot) 30 million. This entire past 2 years the MSM has been giddy claiming that we are gaining altitude, while  they do all they can to avert our attention from the fact that the "lift" came from jettisoning our fuel supply.  Don't worry though they don't have parachutes either. 

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:38 | 1749366 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Yes, but GM workers just got an $11,000 wage/benefit package increase...Ford wage "bonus" of $6,000 + benies.

 

How this reconciles with the Asian auto workers getting $10 a day is a mystery to me unless the Powers That Be halt globalization and make the earth round again.

 

 

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:41 | 1749384 patb
patb's picture

Tyler

 

Government Workers do an excellent job of creating Public Goods and Club Goods. Have you ever called a fire truck or driven on a road, or played in a park?

The private sector is lousy at providing those.

 

 

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 10:09 | 1749483 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

What is the proportion of these so-called critical service workers to the total government workers?

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:41 | 1749385 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"We created 1 or 2 jobs. The world cheers. Sad times."

I LOL'd. 

But the stock market is up again, today guys!  Happy days are here again! 

Also, when you get that job, you are getting, on avergae, 20% less pay than previous one.  Yet food, clothing, room and board, and other services go up in price. 

And the sheeple can't focus their anger on that fact that there SHOULD be a greater concern when Milk goes from $2.35 to $2.40 a gallon.  Instead, since they see it as only $0.05c, they think that's a pittance. 

But their NetFlix goes up $5-$9 dollars?  Outrage on the streets!

I mean, when are the sheeple gonna understand that the jobs market is slowly bleeding.  Corporations, who publicly cry poor, are reaping the profits behind the scene in justified whip cracking thanks to the economical environment. 

Multi-national corporations and the investment banks on Wall St thrive in scarcity; the general public erodes in it. 

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 10:03 | 1749466 gnomon
gnomon's picture

Cheap Energy Gone Forever.  Castle walls, knights in body armor, and serfs being bludgeoned for sport can not be far behind.

Only the continuance of the Ponzi separates us from this coming reality.  And the Ponzi can not be continued.  It will be terminated by some random event or by the calculation of some major power who has determined that its continuance no longer serves its strategic, long term goals. 

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 10:06 | 1749471 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

I can't say that I know a lot of people, but among those that I do know that have lost their jobs since 2008 and thereafter - NONE of them have gotten re-hired in similar employment, nor same wages.  Most of them exhausted their 6 months or 99 weeks of aid, and now get SSI and food stamps in addition to working for cash - $10/hr doing what ever they can.

Face it.  The very definition of "a Job"  means something totally different today.  A job in the late 1960's could provide for an entire family with mom at home.  Today, you can work 60 hours a week and still collect welfare - and just barely support yourself and a kid or two.

In two cases, I know of a gal that went on "disability," and take home more than working because she doesn't commute anymore.  Likewise, a California mother with 2 kids makes more staying home than working as a teacher.  Babysitting for the neighbor kids, she might gross another $10,000 in unreported income. It pays to not be productive.

Prices for food, energy, housing (rent) will edge up, but the price for everything else is dragging down. 

It will be an interesting Winter.

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 10:12 | 1749497 JMT
JMT's picture

There is also the stigma of unemployment. CNN is such a bleeding heat apologist rag for Gen Y but most of Gen Y (at least here in the northeast) are so self absorbed, materialistic and call anyone who is unemployed or unemployed an idiot or 'tard' meanwhile most who are in the hiring capacity will not hire anyone who looks older than say 25 and they refer to people in their 30s & 40's as middle aged.  I thought those 18-29 has the lowest employment/population ratio since the 1940s. Seems like many are just bleeding heart hypocrital f**k heads?

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 10:12 | 1749498 JMT
JMT's picture

There is also the stigma of unemployment. CNN is such a bleeding heat apologist rag for Gen Y but most of Gen Y (at least here in the northeast) are so self absorbed, materialistic and call anyone who is unemployed or unemployed an idiot or 'tard' meanwhile most who are in the hiring capacity will not hire anyone who looks older than say 25 and they refer to people in their 30s & 40's as middle aged.  I thought those 18-29 has the lowest employment/population ratio since the 1940s. Seems like many are just bleeding heart hypocrital f**k heads?

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 10:09 | 1749484 JMT
JMT's picture

If they have bad credit (meaning chargedoff debt or any type of public record or worse) they can forget about finding a job until the info 'falls off' their credit report. I have lost out on several job offers (and I am employed) after the background check came back and I failed because of too much bad debt -- chargedoff credit card debt.

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 10:21 | 1749527 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

declining government jobs at the end of the day is a good thing, government workers don't actually create anything of value for the economy

 

The first part of this statement is true only insofar as the second is true; and the second part is a ridiculous exaggeration.  Can you have capitalism without law?  Can you have property rights without law?  It's nice when you turn on the tap and water comes out, it's nice to flush and forget; who makes that happen? 

Too bad the people that run the waste treatment systems can't do something that makes a real contribution like the financial sector.

Seems to me the core problem is that with productivity gains it takes fewer and fewer man hours to produce basic needs.  Advertising endlessly creates new "needs" and this is the "economy" but how much of it is "value?"  When you get down to it, fewer and fewer people will be "meaningfully" employed.

Next time you're in a high rise in LA or San Francisco, ask yourself who was checking to make sure the contractor didn't cheat on cement mix and rebar. 

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 11:49 | 1749820 Jean
Jean's picture

Next time you're in a high rise in LA or San Francisco, ask yourself who was checking to make sure the contractor didn't cheat on cement mix and rebar. 

Who do you think is more effective at that - an inspector from the insurer or bond holder, or a career civil servant who can't get fired if he makes a mistake.  I would be very hesistant to extend the proper scope of government beyond security, justice, and managing the commons; assigning value and a quality to private works isn't something a political system can do well.

 

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 13:09 | 1750125 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Every government is run by liars,” independent journalist I.F. Stone observed, “and nothing they say should be believed.”  A, freakin' MEN.

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 13:13 | 1750142 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Who do you think is more effective at that - an inspector from the insurer or bond holder, or a career civil servant who can't get fired if he makes a mistake.

Generally, the civil servant because insurers don't have sufficient trained staff to effectively and comprehensively monitor construction projects--they generally rely on the civil servants.  Bond holders? they depend on others for information and certifications.  Then they sue whoever they relied on if things go wrong.

The big risk in City building inspections is corruption (and understaffing in boom times) not laziness or incompetence.  It depends on the City and the department.  It's all local, like it should be.  If your City has a department that doesn't operate effectively, take it up locally.  Blanket generalizations fall apart if look at evidence.

Also "Privatization" has often been the rubric used to get the corporate snout in the public trough.  I've seen a public entity forced by politicians to pay considerably more to turn a physical plant operation over to a private contract.  High-minded idealistic sounding concepts like "privatization" used to get the snout into public trough. 

Most problems and solutions are local and specific. 

Fri, 10/07/2011 - 13:54 | 1750326 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

If the FEDs are successful at closing the pot shops, do the laid off qualify for unemployment?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:50 | 1765981 karmete
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