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The Average March "Seasonal Adjustment" Factor: +824,600

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While still gripped in the bearhug of the warmest winter/spring period seemingly in history, and with virtually everyone now having woken up to the realization (two months delayed) that winter seasonal adjustments when April falls in February may not be the most appropriate way to adjust Non-seasonally adjusted data, we would like to demonstrate the seasonal adjustment factor by month over the past decade. The first chart below shows the annual difference between the NSA and SA number from 2002 to 2012. The second one: just the average. The bottom line is that in the January-March period, there are, on average, 4,413,000 jobs "added" purely due to seasonal adjustments. And while these seasonal adjustments may be appropriate when winter is indeed winter, they are far more difficult to justify when summer falls in the middle of winter. Furthermore, it also means that if indeed we get the +200,000 NFP number that many expect today, this would mean 2012 YTD has added a total of 711,000 jobs. Putting this number in perspective, this is 16.1% of just the seasonal addition over the same period. In other words: jobs added solely in the confines of some opaque excel spreadsheet based on historical patterns, pre 75 degrees in February. Finally, the March BLS number of +200,000, if indeed it comes there, will be 24% of just the shotgun average March seasonal adjustment which has averaged to 824,600 jobs over the past decade. Yet things finally change in April, when seasonal adjustments hardly have an impact on the NSA number, and then in May things get from bad to worse, when the Seasonal Adjustment will for the first time every year, subtract 670,100 jobs from the NSA number. Appropriately enough, this will come just before the June FOMC meeting. Finally, should the NFP number be a major beat, it merely makes US-based QE that much more unlikely until and unless we get a major disappointment in payrolls.

Monthly seasonal adjustment to Nonfarm Payroll number over past decade:

Average monthly seasonal adjustment to Nonfarm Payroll number over past decade:

 

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Fri, 04/06/2012 - 08:17 | 2321619 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Finally, should the NFP number be a major beat, it merely makes US-based QE that much more unlikely until and unless we get a major disappointment in payrolls."

Smells like something dragged itself into the wall or crawl space and died over the winter. Thank God Helicopter Ben will be on the depression exterminating job come June.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 08:16 | 2321621 techstrategy
techstrategy's picture

That chart alone explains why investors sell in May and go away...  bigger and better than ever this year, QE or not.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 08:21 | 2321629 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Who are these mythical "investors" you speak of? All I see are computer algos and whale/institutional/Fed Reserve manipulation.

Markets do not move. Markets are moved.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 08:20 | 2321626 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

The key here might actually be "Season". Perhaps a Summer full of snowstorms? Something whicked this way comes eh?

Weird Weather, weird NUMBers....

I just heard a Myron Fagan Lecture :http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&feature=endscreen&v=NVc_KoXxLHg

With your tin-foils tightly on, give it a listen. Rather chilling, even for the regular conspiracist.

It IS a game and you have to have the BOOK to play with them. Meanwhile, all of this distraction.

ori

police-state-descends-on-america-things-get-nutty-in-india/

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 08:21 | 2321627 Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

RUMOUR HAS IT:- EURO TO DECOUPLE FROM GOLD PRICES AND SWISS FRANC..IN OTHER WORDS EURO DOWN, GOLD AND SWISS FRANC UP...AND THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH NFP NUMBERS TODAY.........

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 08:56 | 2321746 spentCartridge
spentCartridge's picture

If that's true, I bet the UBS 'rogue trader' guy that lost his punt last year - regarding SF & gold - is one sore assed mofo ...

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 08:21 | 2321628 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture
Timeshare Prices Plummet to $1

 

"...can no longer afford the monthly maintenance fees....timeshares remain in freefall...."

"Experts say even in better times, most sellers never saw a return on their investment. “Very few timeshares increase in value,” says Alisa Stephens, executive producer at RedWeek.com."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/timeshare-prices-plummet-to--1.html

 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:23 | 2322003 neidermeyer
neidermeyer's picture

Timeshare companies are doomed but I don't know if they're a short ... Their sales force is all comission only ,, they're buying product back at $1/unit and they're bringing in money backstabbing their few paying owners by offering even more "free" vacations than ever before "just endure a 90 minute sales presentation" ... The only good news for most timeshare owners is that I understand that the companies are too cheap to report to TRW/Equifax etc. or file a legal foreclosure. I did one last month and am doing another in June ,, they oversold the free trips so bad that they had to put us up at their sister hotel , a 3.5 star on Disney property ,, never took the tour , only out of pocket was the Orange County FL resort taxes.... I would suggest using a prepaid VISA/AMEX card to check-in with however just in case they try to hit you for bogus charges though.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 09:07 | 2321780 fuu
fuu's picture

Robert Brusca will set us straight.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 09:09 | 2321789 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

And while these seasonal adjustments may be appropriate when winter is indeed winter, they are far more difficult to justify when summer falls in the middle of winter.

You guys just crack me up...The absurdity of the global situation does deserve a good dose of humor as all you can do is laugh now...Good Friday to you

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:07 | 2322166 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

"While still gripped in the bearhug of the warmest winter/spring period seemingly in history,"

 

Maybe a large part of the center of the nation has been enjoying a warm spring it is certainly not universal.  The west is not enjoying a warm spring at all, we have had one of the longest and coldest winters on record and March was the worst of them all.  Here we are AVERAGING 10-20 and more below normal degrees, storm after storm, and as much as 40 degrees below record temps, yesterday it was 48 and the record for April 5 is 89.  Port Orford over on the coast got nearly 40 inches of rain in March alone, that is 4 times normal and more than LA gets in three years on average.  All over the northwest records were shattered, do you know how much it has to rain to break records in March in Oregon?  A lot.

As to the lack of employment, yes a lot of people have lost good paying jobs but many not counted in the ranks of the employed actually are, why just a few nights ago there was a man going through the dumpsters in the apartment complex I live in.  Leave it to a depression to change a vile practice like dumpster diving into a legitimate form of self employment, recyclable recover specialist.  Granted the job stinks, I mean really stinks, there are no benefits, rats are a constant hazard, and pay averages about one quarter that of minimum wage, but a job is a job right? 

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