Bad AAPL, Good Fedo

Tyler Durden's picture

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Bad AAPL, Good Fedo

In spite of earnings that crushed it for Apple, broader indices struggled to show much strength overnight and slid on the back of some weak earnings out of Europe and growing concerns that few people at the Greek PSI negotiating table have a clue. The comments coming out of the ECB seem more absurd than anything, but I was very surprised how isolated the strength in the market was to Apple (and Nat Gas where UNG is up close to 20% in a couple of days).

The rally into the Fed statement seemed about par for the course. Who wouldn't be nervous with helicopter Ben on tap.  Yet I thought the Fed was disappointing. 2014 seemed like a big concession, but low clearly means 1% or lower, not 0.25%.  Will change if economy changes anyways. No mention of new QE3. Admitted that targeting employment is impossible. They did indicate a willingness to let inflation run a little high if growth was still slow - ummm, haven't they been doing this for the past year? 

I really felt the fed was underwhelming, though clearly by the current price action I'm wrong.

Not sure what to make of a market that traded relatively poorly on strong apple earnings but managed to rip higher on a relatively neutral fed statement.

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fonzannoon's picture

Today was bizarre. what? Ben seemed just as confused as anyone else. I can't believe there was not a huge selloff. Whatever.

EL INDIO's picture

Give it few days.

I think today was the top.

CPL's picture

This isn't the top.  The HFT's have nothing to trade against except one another, they will continue to trade higher and stay as the only volume, which would translate as nearly zero volume, couple of bids against themselves, but no purchases.


I believe the Tyler's posted something a couple of weeks ago.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

There are algos that sell the market too.  Trigger those in this market....ouch.  With volatility low imagine the sellside coming in with no buys to match.  That's what we call a flash crash.  It's coming....

SAT 800's picture

You think today was the top! Hilarious. Completely brainwashed by Zero Profit propaganda. think again my little friend.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It isn't about tops.  It isn't about bottoms.  It's about volatility.  Where did it go?  Oh look, Bernanke says the  markets can't sustain themselves without a little help.  There it is!

TheMerryPrankster's picture

Did Tyler say fedo or fido?

In a zombie stock market courtesy of zombie capitalism, the only thing we can count on is zomcon:

I'm long Zomcon, but can't find the symbol, I think their a Canadian outfit.

franzpick's picture

Well the markets weren't confused today:  leading indicator NDX with a decisive 10 year closing high going on an 11 year high, other leading indices following upwards, materials XLB just 8% below a 3.5 year high and metals surging.

Technicals, FWIW, are turning up dramatically and pointing to higher prices in select areas: 4 years of corruption, with more coming, is old news.


ShoeShineBoy's picture

markets, precious metals that is, were ripe for a short squeeze and no bad news from the fed front was good enough to corner the shorts. at 1683, 1695, 1699, 1702 and 1705 levels. fundemntals for pm's another story, bulls know it all well but having been sick of raids, waiting in ambush was the best tactical strategy. seems to me it has legs to it and more fresh frn's can pile on next week, post the chinese new year (markets are closed there) and even more momo chasers.. we will see.

equity market is a whole different story, for them, there is always a reason if not the very TPPT

on the credits, high beta rallied as well, which was lagging the equities for sometime now.

all in all, this market has been ripe for a short squeeze all along since the begining of the year, so that is what is going on. I guess it will continue its course till LTRO results, unless one of those any-minute major blow ups materialize in europe.


SAT 800's picture

So that is what you're going on? Please give specific trade prices and markets like I always do; such as "short the DJIA at 12,700 last year; or buy BAC at 5.50; meaningless verbiage is useless.

Al Huxley's picture

Market disagreed with the 'underwhelmingness' of the fed statement, especially in the gold sector. This seemed to be the signal everyone was waiting for to buy gold, and gold stocks.

EL INDIO's picture

To me it seemed like a signal to sell (and I sold the spike).

I agree with author.

LetThemEatRand's picture

I am a bona fide conspiracy theorist, but that is because there are bona fide conspiracies.  They will let the market go down when there is an external excuse that can't be blamed on big O.  "Market regained most of its losses thanks to O polices prior to _____________."  When that will happen is anyone's guess, but probably soon.

SAT 800's picture

Check back with me in two weeks, lets see how that's worked out for you. Disclosure; up 50% net since the recent demonstration of a proved bottom in the NYSE.

CPL's picture

Those charts look a US national something...

lsbumblebee's picture

It's because stocks naturally follow gold. Or is it the other way around? i can't keep track of the New Fundamentals. 

YesWeKahn's picture

It's manipulated by the (criminal) primary dealers.

Cult_of_Reason's picture

It really doesn’t matter what is said in a speech by Bernanke or what Fed statement says, the market makers will move the market in the direction they want it to go. Their whole object is to make the market move. Up and down, up and down. I know this as the fact -- they knew about the direction at 9 AM (accumulate in AM, push up after the announcement in PM), before even Bernanke arrived to his meeting.

The talking heads on CNBC will all have differing views and they will all claim to be right, whatever the market does. Listening to their justifications is quite hilarious.

Fed announcement is just the opportunity for the PDs to do what they want to do. And what they want to do is to take the stops out in one direction before making the market take off in another. The great game is to lull the punters into a false sense of direction and then take the market to where they want to go. As one leading member of both the CBOT and CME told me, "We call the game Taking Money from the Public!” That sums up the whole business very nicely. Very nicely indeed.

In today’s Fed statement you can find anything you want to justify any market move you want. If the PDs wanted to take the market down, they would sent an email to Liesman instructing him to tell CNBC watching retail that the market is selling off because there is no mention of QE3 and no employment targeting.

But today they wanted to take the market higher, so Liesman was instructed to tell the extending ZIRP until 2014 lie as the reason for afternoon market rally.

trampstamp's picture

MM maker shake out. that is all.

satan2liberals's picture

I just don't effing believe this  market.


I too thought the fed statements were rather weak.

Deadly's picture

Believing is something we do about God. Don't fight the market, it is what it is. Trade it - any way it's going - and stay close to the door.

CvlDobd's picture

I believe in the integrity of these markets about as much as I believe in God.

ekm's picture

I'm very religious but I accept the integrity of your statement is very solid (no joke).

ekm's picture

If you can handle the gyrations, go for it. Just try not to overdo it with the inevitable Scotch and Marijuana (not to mention some other stuff)

ekm's picture

Because people are conned into thinking that news matters. In fact, in this market it doesn't. Only addiction to speculation matters right now. Addicted people are very unstable.

WonderDawg's picture

Agreed. Headlines are shaped on what the market does, not the other way around. Once hope starts to deteriorate, the market will roll over. Hope doesn't typically deteriorate until it is exhausted, and this is usually indicated by an extreme in sentiment. The bulls are at an extreme right now. Does this portend higher equity prices? Or a top? That's the big question, and I'm betting on a top.

SAT 800's picture

Ah, you're betting on a top; but you're not telling us what index or stock you're shorting; at what price, and what is your time line; I have told you all these things, over and over again; but no-one listens. Give the details of your trade or remain silent; ps. I already know you're not a trader.

hyper-critical's picture

Because this was finally confirmation for all the believers who were taken out back, anally raped, then shot back in December that their fundamental thesis about the state of the global monetary system is in tact.

barliman's picture


There was a good deal of dovishness in the announcemet and the press conference. The markets dropped off a little between the two but came out of Ben's verbosity with conviction that no one in Washington is going to make them face reality THIS year.  Of course, volume still sucked because the retail investor's won't be suckered in to be the bigger fools.

There are NO MORE black swans. Everything unexpected is already priced in ... until the Infinite Improbability Drive is turned off. You will know reality has returned to normal when:

  • Europe financially capsizes
  • Iran is attacked by Israel, the U.S., an elite team of killer clowns (no disrespect to U.S. SOCOM - I am thinking of Mr. Prince's latest endeavor)
  • Japan is struck by another mega-quake
  • All of the above and more besides


ekm's picture

News matters when the future is sure to generate income. At this point, there is no future with income. There are only less than 10 companies with safe dividends and growth and world wide clientele like Coca Cola, IBM etc. But these ones are already bid up. The rest of the companies will produce no income for investors because the 'customers" are overly indebted. The customers are the people.

Hence, right now is just a poker game between strong brokers that are killing each other. Mutual funds are suffering from withdrawals and retail investors have been killed over and over by the volatility and are out. That explains the extremely low volume if we remove the  70% HFT trading that simply buys from a human and sells to another human without holding any stock for more than few nanoseconds. Most people do not know that HFT companies DO NOT HOLD STOCKS.

As in normal poker game, news doesn't matter. You need the following things:

- Addiction to the game - Check

- Available cash at 0% - Check for GS, JPM etc

-Suckers - I don't think so at this point

So, MF Global is out of the poker game. The game will continue until somebody else goes out. Not predictable. Addiction cannot be predicted. But once somebody else goes out, the survivors might choose to go to rehab temporarily. Hence, cashless market.

We'll see.

Milton William Cooper's picture

This market needed to suck in the last suckers before a HUGE selloff after GDP tomorrow

Going to happen

Zero Govt's picture

fuk all to stop it happening  ...there's nobody (buyers) in the market, the volume is lower than attendance at a Timothy Geithner Appreciation Society

IEVI's picture

The algos took over and the NYSE became an uncanny valley.

I should be working's picture

If the number is bad we'll just get some bs seasonal adjustments.

SAT 800's picture

Well, we'll find out tomorrow, won't we; then we can come back and laugh at you. I hope you enjoy it.

Everybodys All American's picture

There is now only one thing to understand Peter.  INFLATION at all costs.

Zero Govt's picture

"I really felt the fed was underwhelming.."

the last time Blowjob Ben played the benign bore at the FOMC he was actually colluding same time behind the curtain (of transparency) with other big central (monopolist) banks around the globe to rip up the Gold market and rig the Gold price destroying $Billions of investors value with his deceiptful (illegal) surprise gangster bankster raid

the usual everyday criminally destructive acts of sociopathically deranged human scum (our beloved elite)

reading Bubble-Blowing Bens body-language leaving todays FOMC he gave away either petulence or impatience as he left at a hasty 'thoughts elsewhere' clip.. my guess is he's got a lot to do he's not telling us about because his empire is deeply seriously fucked and coming apart at the seems

50/50 he smacks down Gold again in the next couple of days

GaryNeville's picture

Huge sell off... hmm the market just doesn't seem to want to do it so far this year. Big support everywhere - just when you think the market will break out of a range lower it breaks out higher! Oil was biggest shock for me - 3 mill barrel build and it went from a low of 9750 up to a high of 10040 ..... near on 300 pip rip on what could have easily been bearish for oil!

Appears to be some risk off in European trading this week - but US trading is consistent risk on everyday so far this year.. come 3:00 PM its almost guarenteed.. Shorting the last few hours of US trading has just been a 100 % losing play in 2012!

navy62802's picture

I don't think it's the actual projected date that frightened people. It's the fact that the Fed MOVED the projected end date for low rates. The fact that they moved the end date one year to the right hints that they will not stick to some sort of pre-determined time table. In all likelyhood, the Fed will continue to move that mythical end date the closer we get to it. Because the instant the Fed raises borrowing rates, say hello to a market crash. So, 2014 isn't really that big of a deal in the grand scheme. The fact that this date was moved one year into the future is a big deal.

On a side note, this is a sign that mortgage rates are going to stay low and maybe even move lower. Which means I won't be selling my condo anytime soon ....

ekm's picture

News DOES NOT matter. The current market participants are simply ADDICTED INDIVIDUALS to the stock market game. Addicted people are very unstable and impossible to predict. Do not bother interpreting the news. Try reading about addiction.

Milton William Cooper's picture

Notice how UST's rose initially. There is just so much electronic currency in existence it's gotta go somewhere

SteveGennisonBallWasher's picture

Building in Brazil just exploded. homepage.

SAT 800's picture

Of course; Brazil is the number one sleeper economy of the coming decade; they have the oil and they are developing it; they don't have a president who needs votes from enviro lunatics.

disabledvet's picture

Again: "how you doin' Petey! We all know you have no clue about equity trading...and that's cool! NO BIGGIE. What we're looking in "these here parts" is "how the phuck can the Fed force the 30 year to at or near zero while killing the entirety of planet earth with inflation?" I must say i only held the ground on totally opposing this as element of faith only because i was patriotic and though it un-American. I'm glad the "guy with the big bucks" was patriotic too and didn't listen to me! Obviously BOND YIELDS FELL TODAY. How come no talk about that ass wipe?

Randall Cabot's picture

Underwhelming? Yes. Overwhelming? No. Just whelming enough for those AAPL earnings to energize the bots.

El Hosel's picture

"The market" always rallys when Bernanke talks policy ... "the market" is showing confidence in "the great Ponzi Master".

aztec two step's picture

I have never read anything so wrong. The FOMC states that it will keep the funds rate extraordinarily low for three years and he questions that. The FOMC means zero and bond dealers know they mean zero. The author is obviously not a bond market aficionado.


If the economic growth unfolds as the FOMC suggests ( a very large if) then we will end up with a 5 year note close to 50 basis points and any sort of risk asset will hold a seductive allure. So the caboose is pulling out of the station ; hop on board the risky asset train.

oogs66's picture

The fed has been saying all along they will hold down rates while the data warrants it.

no life's picture

They pump it in order to get bears to flips sides...  right after the bears capitulate and get long, the drop the S&P a couple hundred points quick..