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Bad AAPL, Good Fedo

Tyler Durden's picture





 

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Bad AAPL, Good Fedo

In spite of earnings that crushed it for Apple, broader indices struggled to show much strength overnight and slid on the back of some weak earnings out of Europe and growing concerns that few people at the Greek PSI negotiating table have a clue. The comments coming out of the ECB seem more absurd than anything, but I was very surprised how isolated the strength in the market was to Apple (and Nat Gas where UNG is up close to 20% in a couple of days).

The rally into the Fed statement seemed about par for the course. Who wouldn't be nervous with helicopter Ben on tap.  Yet I thought the Fed was disappointing. 2014 seemed like a big concession, but low clearly means 1% or lower, not 0.25%.  Will change if economy changes anyways. No mention of new QE3. Admitted that targeting employment is impossible. They did indicate a willingness to let inflation run a little high if growth was still slow - ummm, haven't they been doing this for the past year? 

I really felt the fed was underwhelming, though clearly by the current price action I'm wrong.

Not sure what to make of a market that traded relatively poorly on strong apple earnings but managed to rip higher on a relatively neutral fed statement.

 


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Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:04 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Today was bizarre. 2014....so what? Ben seemed just as confused as anyone else. I can't believe there was not a huge selloff. Whatever.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:36 | Link to Comment EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

Give it few days.

I think today was the top.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:25 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

This isn't the top.  The HFT's have nothing to trade against except one another, they will continue to trade higher and stay as the only volume, which would translate as nearly zero volume, couple of bids against themselves, but no purchases.

 

I believe the Tyler's posted something a couple of weeks ago.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 23:05 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

There are algos that sell the market too.  Trigger those in this market....ouch.  With volatility low imagine the sellside coming in with no buys to match.  That's what we call a flash crash.  It's coming....

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:22 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You think today was the top! Hilarious. Completely brainwashed by Zero Profit propaganda. think again my little friend.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 23:52 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It isn't about tops.  It isn't about bottoms.  It's about volatility.  Where did it go?  Oh look, Bernanke says the  markets can't sustain themselves without a little help.  There it is!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 01:08 | Link to Comment TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Did Tyler say fedo or fido?

In a zombie stock market courtesy of zombie capitalism, the only thing we can count on is zomcon:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGx_X3y4Gec

I'm long Zomcon, but can't find the symbol, I think their a Canadian outfit.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:38 | Link to Comment franzpick
franzpick's picture

Well the markets weren't confused today:  leading indicator NDX with a decisive 10 year closing high going on an 11 year high, other leading indices following upwards, materials XLB just 8% below a 3.5 year high and metals surging.

Technicals, FWIW, are turning up dramatically and pointing to higher prices in select areas: 4 years of corruption, with more coming, is old news.

 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:20 | Link to Comment ShoeShineBoy
ShoeShineBoy's picture

markets, precious metals that is, were ripe for a short squeeze and no bad news from the fed front was good enough to corner the shorts. at 1683, 1695, 1699, 1702 and 1705 levels. fundemntals for pm's another story, bulls know it all well but having been sick of raids, waiting in ambush was the best tactical strategy. seems to me it has legs to it and more fresh frn's can pile on next week, post the chinese new year (markets are closed there) and even more momo chasers.. we will see.

equity market is a whole different story, for them, there is always a reason if not the very TPPT

on the credits, high beta rallied as well, which was lagging the equities for sometime now.

all in all, this market has been ripe for a short squeeze all along since the begining of the year, so that is what is going on. I guess it will continue its course till LTRO results, unless one of those any-minute major blow ups materialize in europe.

 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:24 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

So that is what you're going on? Please give specific trade prices and markets like I always do; such as "short the DJIA at 12,700 last year; or buy BAC at 5.50; meaningless verbiage is useless.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Market disagreed with the 'underwhelmingness' of the fed statement, especially in the gold sector. This seemed to be the signal everyone was waiting for to buy gold, and gold stocks.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:34 | Link to Comment EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

To me it seemed like a signal to sell (and I sold the spike).

I agree with author.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:27 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I am a bona fide conspiracy theorist, but that is because there are bona fide conspiracies.  They will let the market go down when there is an external excuse that can't be blamed on big O.  "Market regained most of its losses thanks to O polices prior to _____________."  When that will happen is anyone's guess, but probably soon.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:26 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Check back with me in two weeks, lets see how that's worked out for you. Disclosure; up 50% net since the recent demonstration of a proved bottom in the NYSE.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:27 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Those charts look familar...like a US national something...

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:11 | Link to Comment lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

It's because stocks naturally follow gold. Or is it the other way around? i can't keep track of the New Fundamentals. 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:11 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

It's manipulated by the (criminal) primary dealers.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:01 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

It really doesn’t matter what is said in a speech by Bernanke or what Fed statement says, the market makers will move the market in the direction they want it to go. Their whole object is to make the market move. Up and down, up and down. I know this as the fact -- they knew about the direction at 9 AM (accumulate in AM, push up after the announcement in PM), before even Bernanke arrived to his meeting.

The talking heads on CNBC will all have differing views and they will all claim to be right, whatever the market does. Listening to their justifications is quite hilarious.

Fed announcement is just the opportunity for the PDs to do what they want to do. And what they want to do is to take the stops out in one direction before making the market take off in another. The great game is to lull the punters into a false sense of direction and then take the market to where they want to go. As one leading member of both the CBOT and CME told me, "We call the game Taking Money from the Public!” That sums up the whole business very nicely. Very nicely indeed.

In today’s Fed statement you can find anything you want to justify any market move you want. If the PDs wanted to take the market down, they would sent an email to Liesman instructing him to tell CNBC watching retail that the market is selling off because there is no mention of QE3 and no employment targeting.

But today they wanted to take the market higher, so Liesman was instructed to tell the extending ZIRP until 2014 lie as the reason for afternoon market rally.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:12 | Link to Comment trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

MM maker shake out. that is all.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:14 | Link to Comment satan2liberals
satan2liberals's picture

I just don't effing believe this  market.

 

I too thought the fed statements were rather weak.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:21 | Link to Comment Deadly
Deadly's picture

Believing is something we do about God. Don't fight the market, it is what it is. Trade it - any way it's going - and stay close to the door.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:27 | Link to Comment CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

I believe in the integrity of these markets about as much as I believe in God.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:32 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

I'm very religious but I accept the integrity of your statement is very solid (no joke).

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:31 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

If you can handle the gyrations, go for it. Just try not to overdo it with the inevitable Scotch and Marijuana (not to mention some other stuff)

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:23 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Because people are conned into thinking that news matters. In fact, in this market it doesn't. Only addiction to speculation matters right now. Addicted people are very unstable.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:34 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Agreed. Headlines are shaped on what the market does, not the other way around. Once hope starts to deteriorate, the market will roll over. Hope doesn't typically deteriorate until it is exhausted, and this is usually indicated by an extreme in sentiment. The bulls are at an extreme right now. Does this portend higher equity prices? Or a top? That's the big question, and I'm betting on a top.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:29 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Ah, you're betting on a top; but you're not telling us what index or stock you're shorting; at what price, and what is your time line; I have told you all these things, over and over again; but no-one listens. Give the details of your trade or remain silent; ps. I already know you're not a trader.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:15 | Link to Comment hyper-critical
hyper-critical's picture

Because this was finally confirmation for all the believers who were taken out back, anally raped, then shot back in December that their fundamental thesis about the state of the global monetary system is in tact.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:15 | Link to Comment barliman
barliman's picture

 

There was a good deal of dovishness in the announcemet and the press conference. The markets dropped off a little between the two but came out of Ben's verbosity with conviction that no one in Washington is going to make them face reality THIS year.  Of course, volume still sucked because the retail investor's won't be suckered in to be the bigger fools.

There are NO MORE black swans. Everything unexpected is already priced in ... until the Infinite Improbability Drive is turned off. You will know reality has returned to normal when:

  • Europe financially capsizes
  • Iran is attacked by Israel, the U.S., an elite team of killer clowns (no disrespect to U.S. SOCOM - I am thinking of Mr. Prince's latest endeavor)
  • Japan is struck by another mega-quake
  • All of the above and more besides

barliman

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:18 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

News matters when the future is sure to generate income. At this point, there is no future with income. There are only less than 10 companies with safe dividends and growth and world wide clientele like Coca Cola, IBM etc. But these ones are already bid up. The rest of the companies will produce no income for investors because the 'customers" are overly indebted. The customers are the people.

Hence, right now is just a poker game between strong brokers that are killing each other. Mutual funds are suffering from withdrawals and retail investors have been killed over and over by the volatility and are out. That explains the extremely low volume if we remove the  70% HFT trading that simply buys from a human and sells to another human without holding any stock for more than few nanoseconds. Most people do not know that HFT companies DO NOT HOLD STOCKS.

As in normal poker game, news doesn't matter. You need the following things:

- Addiction to the game - Check

- Available cash at 0% - Check for GS, JPM etc

-Suckers - I don't think so at this point

So, MF Global is out of the poker game. The game will continue until somebody else goes out. Not predictable. Addiction cannot be predicted. But once somebody else goes out, the survivors might choose to go to rehab temporarily. Hence, cashless market.

We'll see.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:20 | Link to Comment Milton William ...
Milton William Cooper's picture

This market needed to suck in the last suckers before a HUGE selloff after GDP tomorrow

Going to happen

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:33 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

fuk all to stop it happening  ...there's nobody (buyers) in the market, the volume is lower than attendance at a Timothy Geithner Appreciation Society

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:59 | Link to Comment IEVI
IEVI's picture

The algos took over and the NYSE became an uncanny valley.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncanny_valley

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:48 | Link to Comment I should be working
I should be working's picture

If the number is bad we'll just get some bs seasonal adjustments.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:31 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Well, we'll find out tomorrow, won't we; then we can come back and laugh at you. I hope you enjoy it.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:21 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

There is now only one thing to understand Peter.  INFLATION at all costs.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:42 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"I really felt the fed was underwhelming.."

the last time Blowjob Ben played the benign bore at the FOMC he was actually colluding same time behind the curtain (of transparency) with other big central (monopolist) banks around the globe to rip up the Gold market and rig the Gold price destroying $Billions of investors value with his deceiptful (illegal) surprise gangster bankster raid

the usual everyday criminally destructive acts of sociopathically deranged human scum (our beloved elite)

reading Bubble-Blowing Bens body-language leaving todays FOMC he gave away either petulence or impatience as he left at a hasty 'thoughts elsewhere' clip.. my guess is he's got a lot to do he's not telling us about because his empire is deeply seriously fucked and coming apart at the seems

50/50 he smacks down Gold again in the next couple of days

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:22 | Link to Comment GaryNeville
GaryNeville's picture

Huge sell off... hmm the market just doesn't seem to want to do it so far this year. Big support everywhere - just when you think the market will break out of a range lower it breaks out higher! Oil was biggest shock for me - 3 mill barrel build and it went from a low of 9750 up to a high of 10040 ..... near on 300 pip rip on what could have easily been bearish for oil!

Appears to be some risk off in European trading this week - but US trading is consistent risk on everyday so far this year.. come 3:00 PM its almost guarenteed.. Shorting the last few hours of US trading has just been a 100 % losing play in 2012!

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:25 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

I don't think it's the actual projected date that frightened people. It's the fact that the Fed MOVED the projected end date for low rates. The fact that they moved the end date one year to the right hints that they will not stick to some sort of pre-determined time table. In all likelyhood, the Fed will continue to move that mythical end date the closer we get to it. Because the instant the Fed raises borrowing rates, say hello to a market crash. So, 2014 isn't really that big of a deal in the grand scheme. The fact that this date was moved one year into the future is a big deal.

On a side note, this is a sign that mortgage rates are going to stay low and maybe even move lower. Which means I won't be selling my condo anytime soon ....

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:26 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

News DOES NOT matter. The current market participants are simply ADDICTED INDIVIDUALS to the stock market game. Addicted people are very unstable and impossible to predict. Do not bother interpreting the news. Try reading about addiction.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment Milton William ...
Milton William Cooper's picture

Notice how UST's rose initially. There is just so much electronic currency in existence it's gotta go somewhere

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment SteveGennisonBa...
SteveGennisonBallWasher's picture

Building in Brazil just exploded.  Cnn.com homepage.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:34 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Of course; Brazil is the number one sleeper economy of the coming decade; they have the oil and they are developing it; they don't have a president who needs votes from enviro lunatics.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:30 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Again: "how you doin' Petey! We all know you have no clue about equity trading...and that's cool! NO BIGGIE. What we're looking in "these here parts" is "how the phuck can the Fed force the 30 year to at or near zero while killing the entirety of planet earth with inflation?" I must say i only held the ground on totally opposing this as element of faith only because i was patriotic and though it un-American. I'm glad the "guy with the big bucks" was patriotic too and didn't listen to me! Obviously BOND YIELDS FELL TODAY. How come no talk about that ass wipe?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:31 | Link to Comment Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Underwhelming? Yes. Overwhelming? No. Just whelming enough for those AAPL earnings to energize the bots.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:46 | Link to Comment El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

"The market" always rallys when Bernanke talks policy ... "the market" is showing confidence in "the great Ponzi Master".

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:36 | Link to Comment aztec two step
aztec two step's picture

I have never read anything so wrong. The FOMC states that it will keep the funds rate extraordinarily low for three years and he questions that. The FOMC means zero and bond dealers know they mean zero. The author is obviously not a bond market aficionado.

 

If the economic growth unfolds as the FOMC suggests ( a very large if) then we will end up with a 5 year note close to 50 basis points and any sort of risk asset will hold a seductive allure. So the caboose is pulling out of the station ; hop on board the risky asset train.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:43 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

The fed has been saying all along they will hold down rates while the data warrants it.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:41 | Link to Comment no life
no life's picture

They pump it in order to get bears to flips sides...  right after the bears capitulate and get long, the drop the S&P a couple hundred points quick..

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:09 | Link to Comment luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

"no life"...Naa, "bears" ain't "capitulating", time to add more!

Heck, like the kid in an candy store!...Without momma and plenty of MONEY!!

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:37 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Be my guest; you're welcome to be one of the 90% of retail "investors" who lose all their investable capital; somebody has to feed me; I'm certainly not going to get a job; having retired because of people like you at age 34.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 23:00 | Link to Comment IEVI
IEVI's picture

wow you are an arrogant douche

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 23:56 | Link to Comment AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

Deleted - I replied to wrong post. 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 23:58 | Link to Comment AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

Hey SAT800 -

You are 34 years old and claim to be retired from trading, yet your screenname is comprised of an SAT score.

With your Glory Days so proudly on display, I'd venture that you've done nothing with your life since taking that SAT test 16 years ago.

Are you the same poser with an IQ Score as his screename? You sound like one in the same.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:43 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Not sure what to make of it? I think FUBAR answers every question from here on out.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:48 | Link to Comment george
george's picture

I agree completely with this post. The scary thing is that I think I agree with the markets response to the news. I should have used this morning to ditch my shorts. I don't need to be the last bear to capitulate.  Or am I the last bear standing?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:50 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

If you have a lot of cash on the sidelines to live on, you're not the last one.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:53 | Link to Comment george
george's picture

There are piles of cash everywhere. Specifically,sitting in the central banks!

 

thx.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:55 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Those are "reserves". Never made it into the market, never will.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:56 | Link to Comment george
george's picture

whatever.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:00 | Link to Comment george
george's picture

thanks for your opinion though.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:02 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Oh, my pleasure. We all have opinions and I'm interested in yours and everybody. We also risk our money based on our opinions. Thx for yours.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:07 | Link to Comment george
george's picture

Was that statement tongue and cheek? Not the 1 directly above this comment, but the 1 before that

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:13 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Oh not at all. The way I understand "banks with cash on sidelines at the Fed" is that they have a lot of cash at the Fed for normal bank business, but not for speculation in the stock market. Those are called "bank reserves". Otherwise we would have had hyper inflation by now. However, with QE, the Fed buys bonds from the banks, so GS and JPM and others have additional cash to speculate into commodities, stocks etc.

I'm self tought. I've spent countless days and nights reading and studying this stuff, how I don't have a full handle of it. There is one thing though that I'm pretty sure about based on my studies: Only few people in the world have a good handle of it.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:17 | Link to Comment george
george's picture

Their mandated reserves are a fraction of what they are currently maintaining at the central banks. 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:21 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Agree. But I think that they have two choices:

1. Keep the money at the Fed.

2. Since few people are borrowing, they could speculate the money in the stock market with huge loss probability.

They've chosen option 1.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:24 | Link to Comment george
george's picture

till the central planners decide to produce a negative reward for hoarding your money st their house.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:27 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

That's the thing. Nobody knows what "THEY" will decide. Nobody has such wisdom. Also, Fed is not independent at all, contrary to the common belief. 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:33 | Link to Comment george
george's picture

Lol. agreed. Have a great night.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:35 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Good night.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:24 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

By the way, here in Canada and out there in Australia and New Zealand, the reserve requirement for banks is ...................zero.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:13 | Link to Comment george
george's picture

Later Gator...

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:51 | Link to Comment Milton William ...
Milton William Cooper's picture

I'm short SPY calls......fuck em

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:53 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

What expirey?

I guess you have money to lose like me. I'm long BAC $2 puts May 19. I can't see how the financial world won't collapse until April.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:59 | Link to Comment Milton William ...
Milton William Cooper's picture

May

 

I mean SPY has just gotta be below 120 by then....

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:01 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Oh, hm. I'm thinking SPY like 85 or 80. I feel porky.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:16 | Link to Comment Milton William ...
Milton William Cooper's picture

The only problem is the dollar loses so much value that SPY 120 would be bad for an SPY holder

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:19 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

I think that the dollar will gain tremendous value as we get closer to March 20, day of greek collapse. I consider greece as not newsworthy, but Portugal is making headlines now for default. It could initiate an avalange of capital transfer to US just to preserve it.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:22 | Link to Comment Milton William ...
Milton William Cooper's picture

i guess, and i hope you're right, but the US has 16T in debt......makes Europe look like a small nuisance

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:26 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

This debt thing is true and misleading simultaneously.

True - Interest payments are higher and higher

Misleading - Money is printed as debt. Each time the Fed prints or the Bank creates money via loans, it is always in the form of debt. Hence, no debt = no money.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:30 | Link to Comment Milton William ...
Milton William Cooper's picture

Then why would it rally? I guess the reserve currency status could support it short term....that's what I'm hoping is the case with being short SPY calls. I don't mind losing a few FaRt Notes.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:34 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

I think that the short term logic is solid.

As to mid term or long term, it all depends on who prints faster from G7 countries. Everything is relative. As far as I know, G7 countries have a deal to rotate money printing and weaking of currencies so theory says rotating exports. Right now Europe has the cue and Japan has been given an exepmtion to print recklessly due to the quake. That's based on my countless hours of reading.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:44 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Have a good night.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:59 | Link to Comment Milton William ...
Milton William Cooper's picture

May

 

I mean SPY has just gotta be below 120 by then....

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:39 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

There hasn't been any justification for holding short positions for months; except listening to the nonsense perpertrated by Zero Profit; who is a journalist, and knows nothing about markets.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 03:42 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I intend to keep 10% of portfolio in short positions. I have 30% in PM miners, the rest in cash.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:58 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

A selloff is coming.  A big one.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:17 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

I'm so confidently bearish that a selloff would not be enough for me. I see 40% collapse by end of april.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:46 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You need to specify what exactly you're shorting, in what market, and when. then you will have credibility. Credibility as a loser, but at least, credibility. At the present time, you have said nothing.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:44 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Sure. When? at what number? I'm the person who told you to short the DJIA at 12,700 last year. Does anyone remember that? No. Was it a co-incidence? No. Do I know what I'm doing? Yes. Please tell us at what price and on what date the short should be placed. thank You.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 00:10 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Oh you told me.  Great.  Thanks. 

Dow will be down 122 points tomorrow.

It will lose 1000 points during the next three weeks.  In the meantime Europe is going to explode.  Bernanke will come out and say the world needs him to ease, an he trend will reverse.  Woopty wompty.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 00:56 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Wrong! The Dow will be down on Jan 31 2012 , so the last call for slashing a stock is tomorrow after CAT announces it's great results.

Happy Slaughter Len!

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:14 | Link to Comment BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

I dont trust that logo, the company or Jobs.

First Apple computer sold for $666.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:18 | Link to Comment BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

However, im more fearful of Gates... And he is the front news story...1...on the yahoo pages as we speak...

'How a Billionaire Family Unwinds' -  while the majority of people are suffering - lets watch how a billionaire family relaxs...unreal.

BTW - unwinds from what? Stress? Fuck you.lol

 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:29 | Link to Comment Great Unwashed
Great Unwashed's picture

This is not the top. This is not even the beginning of the top. Perhaps this is the top of the beginning?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:32 | Link to Comment Milton William ...
Milton William Cooper's picture

beginning of what?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:02 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

How about a short term top, eh?! :)))

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:06 | Link to Comment The Matthaus
The Matthaus's picture

Natty doing its own thing shouldn't surprise you. It's been one of (if not the only) market still based on fundamentals for the past 3+ yrs. Also one has to take natty's strength into perspective, look at where Jan settled.However CHK may have set the tone for the rest of the producers that could change the dynamic.

 

In regards to AAPL, I guess the market thought Japan was the bigger headline, and it's one story too many are currently taking for granted.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 23:59 | Link to Comment ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Went long UNG at 5.06 and 5.47. Yee-haw!

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:23 | Link to Comment quacker
quacker's picture

I'd love to see a Split the Spread movement pop up, i.e let the people in on the welfare:

Everyone should rush their bank asking if they can borrow $50 million at a rate in between the discount window and the short-term ust yield, and split the spread with the bank.

I mean this should become a real movement.

The largest transfer of wealth from the bottom to the top ever perpetrated in world history goes on in broad daylight right under the nose of an entire nation, and nobody from the president on down does a damned thing.

I know - "you go first," right?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:36 | Link to Comment Pinefox
Pinefox's picture

Doesn't the Fed keeping interest rates low for at least 2 more years underscore how weak the economy is in a big way?  Good grief, they must be scared spitless to make such a statement.  They've squandered billions and have almost nothing to show for it. The economy must be in a lot more trouble than we know.  Why the market can't read the handwriting on the wall is beyond me. 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:41 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

It doesn't matter; when are you going to get the idea!. It's the NYSE and it runs on disposible capital; not "economies"; wake the fuck up, for christ's sake.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:44 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

How is short interest doing?  It seems like its starting to get put back in

Found this from the WSJ:

Short interest in stocks listed on both Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange rose in the first half of January from the prior two-week period, according to the exchanges' semimonthly statistics.

Nasdaq's short interest rose 3.9% to 7.06 billion shares of 2,747 Nasdaq securities as of Jan. 13, compared with 6.79 billion shares of 2,752 securities in the prior period.

The short ratio, or the number of days' volume represented by outstanding share positions, was 5.39 days of average volume, compared with 3.68 days for the prior period.

NYSE's short interest climbed 4.8% to 13.39 billion shares versus 12.77 billion in the prior period. The short interest on Jan. 13 was equal to 3.5% of all shares outstanding.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 23:41 | Link to Comment non_anon
non_anon's picture

Ba'al for all

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 00:24 | Link to Comment ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

BDI at 784

South Korean exports slowing

Japan records trade deficit

Is something going on?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 08:20 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

Simple.

South Korean exports...nobody has any money.

Japan exports...and when they do, they don't want to buy irradiated shit.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 00:52 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

I have been honing my Sword since November, it's Time!

Next Week.....

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 00:55 | Link to Comment Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

I have been short for a week and it has been sickening.  Excuse me, but every motherfucking dip of any size, the least selling velocity, got fucking bought.  I will not forget this week, even if I wind up making some dough here.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 01:06 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

then thats respect!

I have been short for a week too, but not so much! i will increase the shorts tomorrow. then hold for 1 or 2 months on your shorts.

There will be blood....

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 02:47 | Link to Comment tbone654
tbone654's picture

read the tape, not the news...

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 06:28 | Link to Comment bluemaster
bluemaster's picture

I learned not to read any news or to watch TV or to try predicting which way market going. Look the chart money doesn't lie.

I was long on SPI (ASX 200)  last night but stupid night session stop shake me out  what can I do I don’t wont wake up with couple hundred points in draw down . Hard to trade from Melbourne when all moves happened in 3am...

Everyone so bearish I am going Long with stops under last pivot low   just intraday.

 

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 07:43 | Link to Comment hyper-critical
hyper-critical's picture

My favorite acronym from zhedge is back in play. BTFD.

Shorts are going to get ass raped because this is a weak dollar story, and it's not over.

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