This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Bad Economic News Trifecta Hits: Jobs And Core Durable Goods Worse, Savings Rate Higher As Consumers Hunker Down

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The economic data dump is here. In order of appearance, first we have jobless claims which rose from an upwardly revised (of course) 391,000 to 393,000, worse than expectations of 390,000. That is Seasonally Adjusted. Not Seasonally Adjusted claims exploded by 74,214: good thing nobody looks at the unfudged number. The bleeds from the 99 week cliff continued as a net of 7K people dropped from EUC and Extended Claims. Next we have durable goods which while on the surface were better than expected declining by just -0.7% on expectations of -1.2% (with the previous month revised massively lower from -0.8% to -1.5%), the orders ex volatile non-defense and air dropped by a whopping 1.8%, on expectations of -1.0%, and the revised September number collapsing from +2.4% to +0.9%. This means that not only will the final Q3 GDP be revised even lower, but that Q4 GDP rebound hopes have been all but dashed. Finally, in Personal Spending data, we learn that consumers spent less, with spending rising only 0.1% on expectations of 0.3%, while income increased (thank you Uncle Sam) from 0.1% to 0.4% on expectations of 0.3%. This was to be expected: after all the savings rate in September hit 3.3% - the lowest since August 2008. It had only one way to go, and so it did, with the October Savings Rate increasing to 3.5%. Expect this number to keep rising as consumer finally re-retrench yet again, in the process hitting the economy.

Not Seasonally Adjusted Jobless Claims:

Savings Rate:

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 11/23/2011 - 09:53 | 1906364 arkady
arkady's picture

Total credit continues to contract, savings going up and yet talking heads are still contemplating whether or not a recession is coming? 
More like talking asses. 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:05 | 1906434 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

In a sane society, 'credit' contracting and savings going up would be GOOD news....alas, we're far from sane though.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:07 | 1906442 Hard1
Hard1's picture

WTF is going on today?  Bunds down, Treasuries down, Equities down, commodities down!!! I guess cash up

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:07 | 1906449 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

.308 ammo price holding steady, I just checked.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:09 | 1906457 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

We'll see how much longer that will hold....

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:09 | 1906459 Hard1
Hard1's picture

So is the lb. of turkey.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:28 | 1906538 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Isnt that the real insane part as we see 'prices' of major commodities swing up and down 2-3% daily, depending on whatever rumor is floating around...insanity.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:09 | 1906460 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Shorts up.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:13 | 1906481 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Bernanke's pants are down.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:19 | 1906502 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Yep.  The banks need to deleverage their paper investments vs their paper assets.  And paper assets needs to deleverage vs gold.  The hilarity of watching the gold bull get sniped at by talking heads while it unfolds never fails to entertain.  They just want the debt bubble to continue forever with no foundation.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:02 | 1908029 Clearly_Irrational
Clearly_Irrational's picture

"Savings" at a stable rate are good in general because they end up becoming investments which generally leads to increased productivity and more wealth to go around.  A change in the rate of savings can be bad short term unless it's accompanied by appropriate monetary policy otherwise it can lead to inflation/deflation.  Essentially savings represents a demand for currency and when demand changes things will be out of whack until they stabilize at the new equilibrium point.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 09:53 | 1906369 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

This is just the bullish news the market needed for a pre-turkey green day!

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 09:54 | 1906371 Roland99
Roland99's picture

yeah...but saving what? If real earnings are down 1.7% from a year ago....

 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 11:14 | 1906712 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Can't be good for AAPL or NFLX....

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:00 | 1906374 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The more that The Bernank pushes on a string (QE, ZIRP4EVER), the more people white knuckle their fiat. Oh, the irony.

It's all the snake eating its own tail.

The Bernank is DESTROYING the desire to consume, as he's freaking the world of savers and the presently liquid out with his absolute abomination of policies, while the non-savers and the majority who have difficulty getting credit have difficulty spending, also (given the banking sectors precarious-dead state of health).

Here is but one of many examples I can cite:  Mr. Smith, who is 78 years old, worked hard his whole life and retired with enough savings that would have, in an ordinary interest rate environment, have produced an income stream from interest on his savings, that would have prompted him to spend far more freely (he may even have already have replaced his 2001 Mercury Grand Marquis by now if not for the fact he is anxious due to his meager/non-existent interest ZIRP income).

So, Mr. Smith buys no new car, hires no one to put a sunroom on his (now radically depreciated home), and gets all of his grandchildren a lump of coal for Christmas this year.

All thanks to The Bernank.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:02 | 1906419 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I for one am GLAD Bernank and the other Keynesian lunatics are destroying 'the desire to 'consume'...maybe people will snap out of being such mindless cud-chewing cattle and we could actually save the nation!

Its a remote chance, but possible.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:07 | 1906445 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

No fucking way.

Give most Amerikkans the choice between the shiniest, newest iThingy or world peace, and I think you know what most people would pick.

No chance. Not possible.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:09 | 1906463 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You know its funny, I know a couple 'newest gizmo' freaks at work who have told me they guess their old stuff is fine for now, and theyre not doing anything for Christmas except buying 'common sense' things for their kids. Uh oh, JM Keynes spinning in his grave.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:13 | 1906479 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

They aren't buying the iPhone 4s2.0, dog?

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 11:42 | 1906826 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The forthcoming capital controls and supply chain disruptions will take care of the consumption model regardless of the Fed moves.  To push on a string and insure the exponential mis-allocation of capital when there are so many very REAL problems with supply chains is beyond dangerous.  Well, at least the chaos theory folks will have lots of data to mull over in the nbear future.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:20 | 1906508 RickC
RickC's picture

But, even worse, is Mr Smith still needs to eat, clothe himself, and heat/cool his home.  To do that he must spend some of his capital and that makes his problem a continuing problem that will last long past Bernanke.   The damage Bernanke has caused will live long after he is gone.  And, all that damage has produced no positive result unless you consider more pay off to the banks a positive result.  The Fed, owned by bankers, favors banks.  Who could have anticipated that.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:22 | 1906519 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

+2 (extra 1 due to inflation - I had to go to the grocery store yesterday. WTF price of produce)

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:24 | 1906515 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

At least they got coal for Christmas...will come in handy come February.

 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:43 | 1906577 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"and gets all of his grandchildren a lump of coal for Christmas this year."

Ahhh, such a wonderful man!  I think that it is great that he has thought about his grandchildrens future by teaching them to invest in good, solid commodities such as coal!

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 11:43 | 1906832 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I agree, and if he has enough grandchildren, they can keep the house warm and cook some soup.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 12:35 | 1907041 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Did 78 year old Mr. Smith vote for the muslim in 2008? 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 09:57 | 1906388 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Oh my God!  Could it be?  My Christmas stocking is stuffed with QE3!

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:57 | 1906573 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

Have yourself a merry Bernank Christmas
Let your fizz pile grow
From now on
Precious will be out of sight

Have yourself a merry Precious Christmas
Make the banksters pay
From now on
real GDP growth will be years away

Here we are as in golden days
happy silver days of yore
Faithful friends who are dear to us
gather near to us once more

Through the years we grow stronger together
Non-dilutive fizz know the Fates allow
Hang a .999 silver star upon the highest bough
And have yourself a Precious Merry Bernank Christmas - now

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:00 | 1906403 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its just insane, these people are Hopiuming that people go out and load up on cheap Chinese junk on credit? 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:00 | 1906405 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

How long before The Ben Bernank announces ZIRP with no exipiration date...

How long before Congress extends unemployment benefits...

How long before another Keynesian fool claims a natural disaster is good for GDP...

100% FUBAR

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:03 | 1906425 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And just think, 3 straight years of all that to the max has gotten us right back here to the basement.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:45 | 1906585 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"3 straight years of all that to the max has gotten us right back here to the basement"

You mean you can't "borrow yourself rich" and then spend your way into prosperity?  Someone needs to re-write the economic rules here.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:56 | 1906626 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

If I was in the financial biz I would have already created an AK47 index and ETN around it.  This market is ripe for an Eric Sprott of guns, ammo and canned beans.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:57 | 1906627 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

That was supposed to be in response to the .308 comment...

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 15:25 | 1907758 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"response to the .308 comment"

AK-47's don't chamber .308 (7.62X51), they use a medium powered round instead - 7.62X39.  And, the bullet diameter is .311 - important to know if you are reloading some (not that much of 7.62X39 is sold brass cased).

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 18:58 | 1908755 Blank Reg
Blank Reg's picture

I'm going with .223 and 9mil

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 20:06 | 1908916 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"I'm going with .223 and 9mil"

Those are both good choices, as they are what you are likely to find in your local National Guard Armory (along with 7.62 NATO).

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:00 | 1906408 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

That's why the futures are off the low. Silly me, I thought this might be bad news. What the hell was I thinking.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:04 | 1906430 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

That not-seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims number is quite important, I think. It shows the true weakness that permeates in the labor force.

I suspect we will see more of these 400k-plus numbers as we end 2011 and begin 2012. You've seen the reports of all of the mass layoffs announced over the past few months.

As I mentioned on another thread yesterday, there will be several hundred more job cuts coming from BNYMellon alone between now and the first of the New Year. I likely will be among these "displaced" workers. The depression will finally hit me, after four years.

Yes, "Recovery Winter" is nigh. If you're sick of popcorn, might I suggest Cheez-Its?

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:05 | 1906431 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

There was a man from Winsocket

who liked to trade the eco. docket

he said with a grin as he sold the yen

I'll just keep the dollar in my pocket

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:06 | 1906438 LuisF
LuisF's picture

Thanks to JPM I will run to sell of my physical gold! Hurry up!

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:07 | 1906443 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Well hopefully we will be seeing some CNBC folks on the Unemployment line real soon:

 

http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesix/cash_crunch_at_cnbc_dqoRJ3vCLMAD6BPUVQqEYJ

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:07 | 1906444 LuisF
LuisF's picture

Thanks to JPM I will run to sell of my physical gold! Hurry up!

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:07 | 1906447 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

This market is levitated on the HOPE of QE3. PERIOD.

When this doens't manifest or by the time it does the market will have taken an epic dump. Guess this is bullish and we should all jump in like the rest of the mindless bulls for the FAUX Santa clause rally.

 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:12 | 1906477 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

DOW 11300 and people got a rally pre-priced in? I wouldnt touch any of it with a 100 ft pole even if futures were up 1,000 points this morning. 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:15 | 1906487 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I wouldn't touch it with Abby Joseph Cohen's penis, but then again, she sees "a lot more upside" than I do.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:22 | 1906521 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The portfilio of the hour is gold+silver+cash.  The last one is just a put on gold and silver.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:16 | 1906489 slewie the pi-rat
Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:18 | 1906499 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

Cash is up.  TMS2 running at 14.9% annualized.  What is a brotha to do in this environment?

http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/austrian-money-supply/

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:26 | 1906533 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Lots of money being printed.  Poor business environment.  Debt defaults.  You need cashier cash.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:19 | 1906500 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Black Friday is such waste. Good people running to the store to get the 1st 50 pieces of whatever at 80% off throughout the land. By 1 PM stores quiet and then the carnage starts. And the idiots on cnbc will be all over the malls telling us how wonderful everything is. Use those credit cards before they are taken away.

Ridiculous. We are like a horde of sheep being led to slaughter. 

When will peopole realize there is more to this life then buying shit they do not need.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:30 | 1906545 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Been ringing that bell for ages.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:32 | 1906549 CPL
CPL's picture

Welcome aboard to the good ship reality.  Glad to have you here with us.

 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 11:03 | 1906651 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

The real hilarious part is what they are trampling eachother over:  last seasons surplus that was advertised in the paper. 

A few years ago I snagged a laptop from an ignored pile for $50 more than one with half the specs that the sheep were fighting over right next to it. 

And before you ask:  I was there because my old one shit the bed the day before thanksgiving and needed something that weekend.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 12:42 | 1907080 Freddie
Freddie's picture

+1

Blame morons who watch TV. The elites control the masses of idiots who watch TV.  They enpower their overlords by watching.  The same idiots rush to see Hollywood's shit at the movies cinema for retazrds.  The same retards voted for the muslim.

Someone dragged me to a movie at Christmas time a few years ago.  I looked around and the majority of the people there were idiots. I would bet 75% of them voted for the muslim.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:34 | 1906558 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

I'm sure consumers are just hunkering down for their massive buying spree on Black Friday....

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:42 | 1906575 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

OT BREAKING!! Police now pepper spraying  people who pitched tents outside of Walmart waiting for Black Friday sales. Captain Killumall said, "We just kinda got in the habit. You see a tent and you just spray. It's a reptilian brain thing I think."

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 10:50 | 1906600 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"pepper spraying  people who pitched tents outside of Walmart"

Smart thinking on their part.  Now that the WalMarts around here have all returned to selling firearms (the few that didn't), it is probably more prudent to pepper spray them while still unarmed.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 11:06 | 1906671 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

And CNBC uses MBA purchase applications as the GOOD news. But look at the SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED (the media loves reporting seasonally adjusted). It shows NO improvement. Fannie, Freddie and FHA serious deliquencies are falling, but they can't get rid of the overhang of foreclosures.

 

MBA: Refi Applications AND Purchase Applications Rise - GSE Serious Delinquencies Continue to Decline

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 11:07 | 1906675 djsmps
djsmps's picture

Yeah, but consumer confidence is up.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 11:16 | 1906718 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I was hoping someone would mention the UM Consumer Confidence crap.

Well, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index ain't havin' none of the hopium being passed around.

The BCCI has been -50.0 or worse for nine of the past 10 weeks. This week, it is at -50.1. Two of those weeks were at or worse than -53.0.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 15:35 | 1907886 andybev01
andybev01's picture

I'm confident that this will be a really skimpy Christmas.

 

dose that count?

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 13:31 | 1907304 barnabeg
barnabeg's picture

Can someone please explain something to me? Why does the media keep saying the unemployment rate has drop significantly in most U.S. states last month? Is this another case of not counting discouraged workers? How could the unemployment rate be dropping under such macro circumstances? 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!