Bad News For NFP Bulls: Help Wanted Ads Plunge By Most Since Lehman Collapse

Tyler Durden's picture

There is one major problem, for the administration at least, when it comes to presenting labor data that is not "compiled" by the Bureau of beLabored Statistics and its Bank of Spain-endorsed Arima-X-13 seasonal data fudging program: it reflects realty, not statistical or seasonal adjustments, and certainly can not be skewed this way or that depending on what best suits the incumbent presidential candidate two months ahead of the election. Which is why one won't read anywhere that one of the most reliable indicators when it comes to real time hiring data as reported by the actual job market and not by some conflicted, data challenged organization which on top of everything has data leak issues, namely Help Wanted ads just plunged by the most since the Lehman collapse.

Because while the ECB's disappointing announcement tomorrow will come and go, and the market may rise or fall, depending on how much accrued inflation and money printing is used by Draghi to push stocks higher, and sovereign bond yields of insovent countries lower, absent any of these monetary channels resulting in actual economic improvement (and as a reminder the central banking monetary transmissions pipelines have been clogged for a long, long time courtesy of... central planning), all of it is for nothing.

And all of it may be indeed be for nothing if the reality presented by New Help Wanted ads plunging by a whopping 325,700, or the most since February 2009 in the past two months, is allowed by the BLS to penetrate the facade of made up NFP reporting.

From Credit Suisse:


This measure of labor demand suggests businesses have become a lot less willing to hire in the last two months. Jobless claims in recent months are not showing a deteriorating picture for the layoff side of payrolls, but help wanted online ads are showing weakness on the hiring side.


Biggest two-month drop since the recession three years ago. Help wanted online ads posted a second straight triple-digit decline in Aug after Jul’s big drop. Importantly, new ads accounted for the bulk of the weakness.


The two-month drop for headline help wanted online ads was -262.3K, while the two-month drop for new ads was -325.7K. Both were the worst two-month stretches since Feb 2009.

For the visual learners:

And confirming that the Help Wanted ads is not alone in predicting what in a non-banana kleptocracy otherwise be a wildly negative NFP print, here is the correlation between the Philly Fed index and the NFP change, courtesy of Newedge's Brad Wishak.

Of course, should the NFP indeed tumble by as much as it otherwise would if reality was even remotely reflected in official economic data, the stock market would likely open limit up as a negative NFP print would virtually assure that Bernanke would throw another $1 trillion or so of reshly printed Benjamins into the fire pit, because after all in the New Normal, what has failed 3 times will surely work on the 4th, 5th, or some other time.

h/t Pedro da Costa

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Meesohaawnee's picture

but but king idiot rahm emanual this weekend was on tv saying how great the economy was.. he doesnt lie...does he???

otto skorzeny's picture

life is great if you are a ganbanger in Chicago and your job is selling H to suburban kids.

vast-dom's picture

that's some scary shit and yet unlike Lehman collapse the markets are beyond bullish! history won't help make sense of these days and the depression "scholar" might as well be studying the paleolithic age in order to stave off the end of mankind at the rate we're going, erroneous scholarly insights notwithstanding.

Muppet of the Universe's picture

All it means is the commodities will expereince ultra deflation eventually, and the markets may very well qe to infinity.  Where there is fed intervention, logic does not exist.  Only what the fed says, does.

Besides, who cares, the longer the game goes on, the more chance to make money in the market there is. Why curse this era?  The slower the collapse is, the more people that will figure it all out, and will buy bullion.

The more that buy bullion, the greater the chance for gold 10,000 in a few years.  In the end, all I can say is, tally this one onto the growing list of SHTF...

TruthInSunshine's picture

The Bernank hath broken all markets, and his radical central bank monetary interventionism (unprecedented in any alleged "capitalistic" nation-state) has and continues to crowd out organic, private economic activity.


He's going to break all markets even further, too, with Congress & The President as his accomplices (with each pointing the finger at each other, while aiding and assisting The Bernank), and the ECB, BOJ and BOE will all join in the merriment.


Buckle up, buttercups.

metastar's picture

The markets aren't broken. The casino is performing optimally making money for the house.

Want a job? Go to!

brettd's picture

ah, com'on!  We love our little "tiny dancer" from Chicago!/sarc

Muppet of the Universe's picture

20,000 to RohmE if he dances for 3 minutes to this and posts it on a blog...

Cmon Rohm, who gives a fuck?  The sheep are down and out for the count, and the game is just warming up...  Have a little fun.

JPM Hater001's picture

Rham doesnt so much lie as never tell the truth...very fine line I know...

brettd's picture

ah, com'on!  We love our little "tiny dancer" from Chicago!/sarc

FreedomGuy's picture

Wait till after Obama's reelected if you want some doom and gloom. Right now there is a lull to see how the elections turn out. From my friends in business and my reading of the tea leaves a second Obama term will start with a decided thud. Some are holding layoffs off to see how it goes.

Don't worry matter how many jobs are lost in a second round of recession it will be less than what would have been lost if Obama was not President. That will be bullish for more QE and stocks.

uff the fluff's picture

Oh come on! It's a two-headed monster and you know it. If you really think having some more Rs in office would fix what ails us then you are not very well informed.

LawsofPhysics's picture

So everyone is happily earning a decent wage then?  Bullish!  < sarc off >

Jlmadyson's picture

"The Bros Always Win."

Until they don't.

The clock is ticking.

Zero Govt's picture

"...Arima-X-13 seasonal data fudging program.."

is that what they're calling politicians and civil servants now that spend their entire career lying in Govt office?

Hangfire's picture

Tell me about it, my "year off" is coming to an end as my savings are shrinking and I have caught every last fish off of the San Diego coast.  The only job that caught my eye this week on craigslist was for a sign twirler down on midway drive, maybe even luck out and spin the Dejavu sign for money, and maybe they throw in some lap dances.  

LoneStarHog's picture

But...but...I am sure that this does not count the tens-of-thousands of openings for bodies to fill the seats for Obozo's acceptance speech.  Old data!

FreedomGuy's picture

Get hired for the next grass roots protest!

dbTX's picture

Another summer of recovery.

tenpanhandle's picture




two weasles did chatter;

whilst their shit did splatter;

Bernanke can spout;

and Obama can pout;

but its the economy stupid - that matters;'s picture

This scans better but I can't vouch for the imagery.


The weasels compulsively chatter,

While their tails fan the shit that they splatter.

Obama just pouts,

While Benjamin spouts,

But it's the system itself that's the matter.

asteroids's picture

You can't fudge raw hard numbers. But remember folks, "the stock market isn't the economy". These jokers can lift the market 1% or more any time they want. It's best not to play but be careful if you do.

slaughterer's picture

-200k sounds about right...

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Like this indicator too, since 70% of our actual economy is consumer spending.  Note the unshakeable shittiness.

BudFox2012's picture

This is misleading.  Some help wanted ads are down, yes, but others are way up.  Like at Gun Stores.  And Survival Food places.  And Collection Agencies.  All shovel ready jobs I tell you, and more proof that things are getting better </sarc>

U4 eee aaa's picture

And pawn shops. Don't forget the pawn shops!

gregga777's picture

A local pawn shop operator told me they are very cash flow negative.  Too many sellers and hardly any buyers.

Blasé Faire's picture

June 2009: HELP WANTED fixing the US economy. 

September 2012: HELP WANTED - Skilled Printers Needed.

poor fella's picture

Too bad the June 2009 opening still hasn't been filled....

You forgot to mention the 'skilled printers' positions are for the overseas subsidiaries - The local market is humming along just fine.

Conman's picture

Print will come in at expectations. Part time work is doing fine repalcing all the full time. Remeber working 1 hour a week is work to the BLS. This will let the fed do nothing until elections.

DUNTHAT's picture

Agree.  nothing is gonna print that would force Ben to do something

singsing's picture

Peter O’Toole: Did you find a job?
Woody Allen: Yeah, I got something at the striptease. I help the girls dress and undress.
Peter: Nice job.
Woody: Twenty francs a week.
Peter: Not very much.
Woody: It’s all I can afford.

DosZap's picture

Well,watch CLITTON destroy the GOP tonight............................he secretly hates ObWan,made no bones about it,reminds me of, , but he will act like any other Globalist clown, if there is a camera to be seen,he will be in front of it.

Hellary, is said to be NOWHERE to be found at this dysfunctional event.

Said would not appear proper........yeah, I would hide too, since your running in'16.

Hopefully they remove his CEEGARS from his pocket prior to the smile & MORE  lies fest.

Like HE was the last POUTUS to show a surplus, because the GOP was in control and made him.

Well,O dodged a bullet, since there is a 20% chance of Tstorms, the 70k+ stadium that was going to be 50% empty, is now out of the PIC.Who cancels a speech to so many loving,adoring, idol worshipping fans of welfare, and SNAP cards?, over a 20% chance of lightning........................LOL.

Waiting for Reuters to let us know it's been moved to the local MickeyD's.


LawsofPhysics's picture

I still see over 7 billion unfunded liabilities walking around.  Time for a drink.

Zero Govt's picture

Peter Schiff should be grateful for QE, he banks at JP Morgan, his business could have gone down with JPM in 2008 were it not for bubble Bens public mandate to back-stop bankings biggest gamblers/losers

fonzannoon's picture

Yeah he openly admits to banking at the tbtf banks because he is so sure they won't let em fail.

JuliaS's picture

Peter Schiff - the guy who smelled smoke and yelled "fire" in a crowded theater... escorting everyone to the safety of the basement full of fireworks and gasoline.

How are those Asian invesmtents going? Still decoupling?

fonzannoon's picture

The guy recommends physical gold and silver, get the hell away from bonds, own foreign currencies of the few countries left with a viable economic foundation....and yes stocks in companies in Asia and other markets and even the miners....At least be honest.

grid-b-gone's picture

The ISM report showed new orders shrinking, production backlogs shrinking, and in-house inventory growing.

In short, the worldwide slowdown is showing up in manufacturers' production stats.

Employment recorded an increase in the same report, but the other numbers indicate a building of inventory to support lay-offs, rather than addressing the shrinking backlog with a shorter workweek or other means.

This indicates manufacturers do not expect sales to pick up before the need to make larger-scale labor cutbacks.

centerline's picture

Head out the window analysis from where I work sees the same thing.  The pick up in business earlier this year seemed very artificial.  Peaked about 2-3 months ago and is now rolling over.

Given that nothing significant has broken (at least not obviously), it will be interesting to see  what is next and the timing.  Canary in the coal mine here in terms of real business activity I think.

Some of it could be related to election uncertainty.  But, not all of this.  We got here on the back of the EU pain and that saga won't go on forever... or the Iran thing... or the Syria thing... etc. 

tahoebumsmith's picture

You want to see a real shocking number? Take away all the fake work from home ads, Mc Donalds, Walmart, CVS, Rite Aid and other minimum wage paying jobs and the number might be as high as  -600k?

gregga777's picture

I overheard a Wal Mart employee talking to several people today in Lake City, XX.  She said Wal Mart is only filling part-time positions so that they do not have to pay benefits.  Still, they became interested when she told them that there were openings for part-time night-time positions.

The worst trader's picture

Bullish! Good for at least 100 S&P points