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Bad News For NFP Bulls: Help Wanted Ads Plunge By Most Since Lehman Collapse

Tyler Durden's picture




 

There is one major problem, for the administration at least, when it comes to presenting labor data that is not "compiled" by the Bureau of beLabored Statistics and its Bank of Spain-endorsed Arima-X-13 seasonal data fudging program: it reflects realty, not statistical or seasonal adjustments, and certainly can not be skewed this way or that depending on what best suits the incumbent presidential candidate two months ahead of the election. Which is why one won't read anywhere that one of the most reliable indicators when it comes to real time hiring data as reported by the actual job market and not by some conflicted, data challenged organization which on top of everything has data leak issues, namely Help Wanted ads just plunged by the most since the Lehman collapse.

Because while the ECB's disappointing announcement tomorrow will come and go, and the market may rise or fall, depending on how much accrued inflation and money printing is used by Draghi to push stocks higher, and sovereign bond yields of insovent countries lower, absent any of these monetary channels resulting in actual economic improvement (and as a reminder the central banking monetary transmissions pipelines have been clogged for a long, long time courtesy of... central planning), all of it is for nothing.

And all of it may be indeed be for nothing if the reality presented by New Help Wanted ads plunging by a whopping 325,700, or the most since February 2009 in the past two months, is allowed by the BLS to penetrate the facade of made up NFP reporting.

From Credit Suisse:

 

This measure of labor demand suggests businesses have become a lot less willing to hire in the last two months. Jobless claims in recent months are not showing a deteriorating picture for the layoff side of payrolls, but help wanted online ads are showing weakness on the hiring side.

 

Biggest two-month drop since the recession three years ago. Help wanted online ads posted a second straight triple-digit decline in Aug after Jul’s big drop. Importantly, new ads accounted for the bulk of the weakness.

 

The two-month drop for headline help wanted online ads was -262.3K, while the two-month drop for new ads was -325.7K. Both were the worst two-month stretches since Feb 2009.

For the visual learners:

And confirming that the Help Wanted ads is not alone in predicting what in a non-banana kleptocracy otherwise be a wildly negative NFP print, here is the correlation between the Philly Fed index and the NFP change, courtesy of Newedge's Brad Wishak.

Of course, should the NFP indeed tumble by as much as it otherwise would if reality was even remotely reflected in official economic data, the stock market would likely open limit up as a negative NFP print would virtually assure that Bernanke would throw another $1 trillion or so of reshly printed Benjamins into the fire pit, because after all in the New Normal, what has failed 3 times will surely work on the 4th, 5th, or some other time.

h/t Pedro da Costa

 

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Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:13 | 2765828 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

but but king idiot rahm emanual this weekend was on tv saying how great the economy was.. he doesnt lie...does he???

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:30 | 2765866 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

life is great if you are a ganbanger in Chicago and your job is selling H to suburban kids.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:42 | 2765907 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

that's some scary shit and yet unlike Lehman collapse the markets are beyond bullish! history won't help make sense of these days and the depression "scholar" might as well be studying the paleolithic age in order to stave off the end of mankind at the rate we're going, erroneous scholarly insights notwithstanding.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 18:14 | 2766005 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

All it means is the commodities will expereince ultra deflation eventually, and the markets may very well qe to infinity.  Where there is fed intervention, logic does not exist.  Only what the fed says, does.

Besides, who cares, the longer the game goes on, the more chance to make money in the market there is. Why curse this era?  The slower the collapse is, the more people that will figure it all out, and will buy bullion.

The more that buy bullion, the greater the chance for gold 10,000 in a few years.  In the end, all I can say is, tally this one onto the growing list of SHTF... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EiE3jW9_rwA&feature=BFa&list=PL1766AE15B0...

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 20:10 | 2766419 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The Bernank hath broken all markets, and his radical central bank monetary interventionism (unprecedented in any alleged "capitalistic" nation-state) has and continues to crowd out organic, private economic activity.

 

He's going to break all markets even further, too, with Congress & The President as his accomplices (with each pointing the finger at each other, while aiding and assisting The Bernank), and the ECB, BOJ and BOE will all join in the merriment.

 

Buckle up, buttercups.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 21:27 | 2766632 metastar
metastar's picture

The markets aren't broken. The casino is performing optimally making money for the house.

Want a job? Go to Dice.com!

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 04:56 | 2767324 LMAOLORI
Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:38 | 2765898 brettd
brettd's picture

ah, com'on!  We love our little "tiny dancer" from Chicago!/sarc

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 18:18 | 2766015 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

20,000 to RohmE if he dances for 3 minutes to this and posts it on a blog...  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEx4N8aFI6c&feature=BFa&list=PL1766AE15B0...

Cmon Rohm, who gives a fuck?  The sheep are down and out for the count, and the game is just warming up...  Have a little fun.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 20:19 | 2766447 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Little kid freaking out about the packers beating the vikings

 

Sorry couldn't help myself +1 for the Rahm comments though

 


Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:42 | 2765906 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Rham doesnt so much lie as never tell the truth...very fine line I know...

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:51 | 2765933 brettd
brettd's picture

ah, com'on!  We love our little "tiny dancer" from Chicago!/sarc

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 19:30 | 2766265 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Rahm is a cunt

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 20:11 | 2766422 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Wait till after Obama's reelected if you want some doom and gloom. Right now there is a lull to see how the elections turn out. From my friends in business and my reading of the tea leaves a second Obama term will start with a decided thud. Some are holding layoffs off to see how it goes.

Don't worry though...no matter how many jobs are lost in a second round of recession it will be less than what would have been lost if Obama was not President. That will be bullish for more QE and stocks.

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 03:07 | 2767245 uff the fluff
uff the fluff's picture

Oh come on! It's a two-headed monster and you know it. If you really think having some more Rs in office would fix what ails us then you are not very well informed.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:14 | 2765829 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

So everyone is happily earning a decent wage then?  Bullish!  < sarc off >

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:15 | 2765834 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

"The Bros Always Win."

Until they don't.

The clock is ticking.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:15 | 2765838 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"...Arima-X-13 seasonal data fudging program.."

is that what they're calling politicians and civil servants now that spend their entire career lying in Govt office?

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:17 | 2765839 Hangfire
Hangfire's picture

Tell me about it, my "year off" is coming to an end as my savings are shrinking and I have caught every last fish off of the San Diego coast.  The only job that caught my eye this week on craigslist was for a sign twirler down on midway drive, maybe even luck out and spin the Dejavu sign for money, and maybe they throw in some lap dances.  

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:31 | 2765870 negative rates
negative rates's picture

A fish, to taste right, must swim 3 times. Once in water,  butter, and wine.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:16 | 2765840 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

But...but...I am sure that this does not count the tens-of-thousands of openings for bodies to fill the seats for Obozo's acceptance speech.  Old data!

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 22:36 | 2766800 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Get hired for the next grass roots protest!

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:16 | 2765841 dbTX
dbTX's picture

Another summer of recovery.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:18 | 2765842 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

 

 

 

two weasles did chatter;

whilst their shit did splatter;

Bernanke can spout;

and Obama can pout;

but its the economy stupid - that matters;

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:26 | 2765860 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

[GONG]

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 18:16 | 2766008 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

This scans better but I can't vouch for the imagery.

 

The weasels compulsively chatter,

While their tails fan the shit that they splatter.

Obama just pouts,

While Benjamin spouts,

But it's the system itself that's the matter.

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 02:41 | 2767204 Me_Myself_and_I
Me_Myself_and_I's picture

hehe

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:17 | 2765844 asteroids
asteroids's picture

You can't fudge raw hard numbers. But remember folks, "the stock market isn't the economy". These jokers can lift the market 1% or more any time they want. It's best not to play but be careful if you do.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:17 | 2765845 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

-200k sounds about right...

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:17 | 2765846 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

http://www.gallup.com/poll/127544/Consumer-Spending-Weekly.aspx

Like this indicator too, since 70% of our actual economy is consumer spending.  Note the unshakeable shittiness.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:23 | 2765853 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

This is misleading.  Some help wanted ads are down, yes, but others are way up.  Like at Gun Stores.  And Survival Food places.  And Collection Agencies.  All shovel ready jobs I tell you, and more proof that things are getting better </sarc>

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 20:57 | 2766549 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

And pawn shops. Don't forget the pawn shops!

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 22:45 | 2766821 gregga777
gregga777's picture

A local pawn shop operator told me they are very cash flow negative.  Too many sellers and hardly any buyers.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:25 | 2765859 Blasé Faire
Blasé Faire's picture

June 2009: HELP WANTED fixing the US economy. 

September 2012: HELP WANTED - Skilled Printers Needed.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:37 | 2765873 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Too bad the June 2009 opening still hasn't been filled....

You forgot to mention the 'skilled printers' positions are for the overseas subsidiaries - The local market is humming along just fine.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:28 | 2765862 Conman
Conman's picture

Print will come in at expectations. Part time work is doing fine repalcing all the full time. Remeber working 1 hour a week is work to the BLS. This will let the fed do nothing until elections.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:34 | 2765880 DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

Agree.  nothing is gonna print that would force Ben to do something

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:29 | 2765863 singsing
singsing's picture

Peter O’Toole: Did you find a job?
Woody Allen: Yeah, I got something at the striptease. I help the girls dress and undress.
Peter: Nice job.
Woody: Twenty francs a week.
Peter: Not very much.
Woody: It’s all I can afford.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:36 | 2765878 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Well,watch CLITTON destroy the GOP tonight............................he secretly hates ObWan,made no bones about it,reminds me of, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wKyXA_nMVQ , but he will act like any other Globalist clown, if there is a camera to be seen,he will be in front of it.

Hellary, is said to be NOWHERE to be found at this dysfunctional event.

Said would not appear proper........yeah, I would hide too, since your running in'16.

Hopefully they remove his CEEGARS from his pocket prior to the smile & MORE  lies fest.

Like HE was the last POUTUS to show a surplus, because the GOP was in control and made him.

Well,O dodged a bullet, since there is a 20% chance of Tstorms, the 70k+ stadium that was going to be 50% empty, is now out of the PIC.Who cancels a speech to so many loving,adoring, idol worshipping fans of welfare, and SNAP cards?, over a 20% chance of lightning........................LOL.

Waiting for Reuters to let us know it's been moved to the local MickeyD's.

 

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:35 | 2765886 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I still see over 7 billion unfunded liabilities walking around.  Time for a drink.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:36 | 2765891 fonzannoon
Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:48 | 2765917 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Peter Schiff should be grateful for QE, he banks at JP Morgan, his business could have gone down with JPM in 2008 were it not for bubble Bens public mandate to back-stop bankings biggest gamblers/losers

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:49 | 2765920 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Yeah he openly admits to banking at the tbtf banks because he is so sure they won't let em fail.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:58 | 2765959 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

Peter Schiff - the guy who smelled smoke and yelled "fire" in a crowded theater... escorting everyone to the safety of the basement full of fireworks and gasoline.

How are those Asian invesmtents going? Still decoupling?

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 18:14 | 2765976 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The guy recommends physical gold and silver, get the hell away from bonds, own foreign currencies of the few countries left with a viable economic foundation....and yes stocks in companies in Asia and other markets and even the miners....At least be honest.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:36 | 2765892 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

The ISM report showed new orders shrinking, production backlogs shrinking, and in-house inventory growing.

In short, the worldwide slowdown is showing up in manufacturers' production stats.

Employment recorded an increase in the same report, but the other numbers indicate a building of inventory to support lay-offs, rather than addressing the shrinking backlog with a shorter workweek or other means.

This indicates manufacturers do not expect sales to pick up before the need to make larger-scale labor cutbacks.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:47 | 2765919 centerline
centerline's picture

Head out the window analysis from where I work sees the same thing.  The pick up in business earlier this year seemed very artificial.  Peaked about 2-3 months ago and is now rolling over.

Given that nothing significant has broken (at least not obviously), it will be interesting to see  what is next and the timing.  Canary in the coal mine here in terms of real business activity I think.

Some of it could be related to election uncertainty.  But, not all of this.  We got here on the back of the EU pain and that saga won't go on forever... or the Iran thing... or the Syria thing... etc. 

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:37 | 2765894 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

You want to see a real shocking number? Take away all the fake work from home ads, Mc Donalds, Walmart, CVS, Rite Aid and other minimum wage paying jobs and the number might be as high as  -600k?

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 22:21 | 2766769 gregga777
gregga777's picture

I overheard a Wal Mart employee talking to several people today in Lake City, XX.  She said Wal Mart is only filling part-time positions so that they do not have to pay benefits.  Still, they became interested when she told them that there were openings for part-time night-time positions.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:39 | 2765899 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Bad news indeed. But consistent with other economic indicators.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/obamas-record-on-the-...

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:44 | 2765908 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Bullish! Good for at least 100 S&P points

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 17:44 | 2765909 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Let's hope this doesnt mean the recovery is a farce.  I would hate to lose faith I can find a job.

Silver anyone?

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 18:02 | 2765967 So Sue Me
So Sue Me's picture

Who says "Help Wanted" ads are down?  Maybe those posting the Help Wanted ads have found alternative platforms to seek workers, like Craigslist?

Think about tracking help wanted ads in the Sunday paper.  I bet those ads are way down, too.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 18:11 | 2765994 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Just read that Ben is doing his best to keep save us from resession, How did that work out when Greenspan did the same thing? No free market, no resessions, all is good here look the other way.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 18:39 | 2765995 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

where did the swissies LOOK?

QE coming?  L0L!!!

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 18:14 | 2766003 Northeaster
Northeaster's picture

I posted this before, but HR isn't even posting positions for decent jobs, their either recruiting off profiles directly or by recommendations only. Of course a "decent" job, or a job at all is relative, but from my perspective, anything under $25/hr or $50k are the only jobs being posted for the public at large. Mid-lifers are fucked as corps. unload the heavy salary and grandfathered benefits (seen this happen multiple times directly). Oh, and if you work for IBM here in the states, you're fucked (outside of sales), start looking for a new job yesterday or relocate in Singapore, South Africa or Brazil because those are the only places an American is keeping their job with them (yes, including engineers).

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 18:15 | 2766006 trip kitchen
trip kitchen's picture

Bureau of Beleaguered Statists = closer still

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 18:23 | 2766033 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I've been saying all summer - those companies that are hiring, will do so before the end of September. If they haven't already stopped by now.

Which, I think, most have.

Trust me on this. I'm still looking for full-time employment myself.

I interviewed for a job today, and the woman I interviewed with intimated that she was inundated with resumes and applications.

Definitely a "buyer's market" out there.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 18:35 | 2766077 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

What you guys don't realize is that under Obummer and Benny we are only into year 4 of the 5 year plan.  Give them another year to get this crap straightened out.  Central planning is a definite science, just ask Russia and China.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 18:51 | 2766129 RiskAverseAlertBlog
RiskAverseAlertBlog's picture

"...as a reminder the central banking monetary transmissions pipelines have been clogged for a long, long time courtesy of... central planning."

What of the mountain of private label securitized garbage making central planning fashionable among the political class in a desperate bid to restore confidence?

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 18:55 | 2766143 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

Goverment is always hiring more Ipad analysts and drone pilots.

Other expanding industries are repo.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 19:59 | 2766385 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Most of the data is pointing to the downside. I love the Facebook guy at the DNC who pronounced that the economy is much better now than when Obama took office.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/obamas-record-on-the-...

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 20:39 | 2766505 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

For *him* it is.  Well; it was even better a couple of months ago....

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 02:34 | 2767188 Me_Myself_and_I
Me_Myself_and_I's picture

It is better, dumbass.

When Obama came into office the whole fucking city was on fire, and Bush and company were running from the mess with eyes closed, hands over ears shouting "we didn't do it!".

Then after Obama doused the flames, as messy as that was, all the Bush supporters in Etchy clothes come circling back crying that he didn't save their fine collection of collectible kitty plates from breaking... and he deserves to be fired for this because the smoldering house just 'isn't as good as it used to be.'

 

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 18:10 | 2769660 reading
reading's picture

Exactly what is better?  

Oil - up 109%

Gold - up 94% (this is probably the bright spot for most here)

Household income - down 7.3%

National debt - up from 11 trillion to 16 trillion or a 45% increase

unemployment - up .5% with a declining labor force participation rate.

Number of people on food stamps - up 20%

Bank Earnings - up, and why not?  They are living off the free money from the fed to delay not having to deal with the cesspool of honesty living on their balance sheets

Bank bonuses - up and continuing

And I am NOT a republican.  To say things are better is uninformed and amateurish at best.  Open your eyes and look around -- what is being presented as better is coming at what cost?

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 20:37 | 2766501 mirac
mirac's picture

NFP?  What does that stand for?  There's a F*ck or F*ucking in there somewhere!

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 20:40 | 2766510 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

No F*'n Paycheck

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 21:19 | 2766603 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Stock markets are a reflection of future potential.

 

This is why market indexes have always been a good reflection toward what's coming economically.

 

When markets lag the economy, something is just plain rotten to the core.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/standard-poors-500-weekly-august-24-2012

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 21:36 | 2766653 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Be All You Can Be, Bitchez!

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 21:55 | 2766702 DeFeralCat
DeFeralCat's picture

Zhers are missing something very fundamental here. The jobs report will be okay. We are in an election year. Both parties hired campaign workers to do a myriad of tasks. They are going to count them. Maybe even twice. But Obama is going to get a good number here because they will claim all the people the SuperPacs hired for Romney. And it will just be a guess. This is where Obama punks Romney and the election has a nice clear path.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 23:51 | 2766949 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Zhers are missing the heavy dose of fairy dust..... Party on Defecat

Sat, 09/08/2012 - 01:14 | 2773981 lin3694
lin3694's picture

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