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Bad News Recoupling
Perhaps we can finally dismiss the decoupling myths and hopes and dreams as nothing but the natural economic lags we were so clear about during the first quarter elation this year. As is clear from Citigroup's Economic Surprise Indices, Europe and the US are once again in sync from a macro-economic cycle perspective (both in terms of missed expectations and deteriorating data). What is more worrisome is the very close similarities between the last year or so evolution of the macro picture in the US and Europe with what occurred in 2008 (as is clear from the red and green ovals). We heard again and again then (as now) that markets would decouple but as the markets began to roll-over they reinforced one another in the downward spiral and we know how that ended.
Notice the US weakness (red arrow) accompanied by EUR stability (orange arrow) which then gives way with the two economies appearing to decouple (green oval) only to recouple (red oval) as deterioration becomes self-reinforcing after the hope of the previous decouple fades...
Chart: Bloomberg
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I've been down so long it looks like up to me.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stp2hCsOFGY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0RnCw3vPCk
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SURPRISE!!!
"we know how that ended."
Yeah, gold went from sub-$700 to over $1900.
well, I think the market is manipulated like crazy, and I'm not going to predict what will happen, but if one used speed line, on sso this is where the week top should be.
i see a bad moon risinig..i see trouble on the way..
I see bank runs and riotin'
Hope you have got your shit together, hope you are quite prepared to die
no shit!
as deterioration becomes self-reinforcing after the hope of the previous decouple fades...
As hope for the previous decouple fades, the purists are retooling their decoupling narrative and are expected to re-release the revised decoupling meme sometime in the fall.
What? Nah we got high hopes of free monees up in this mahfakah!
Off topic, but can someone please tell me how it is that stocks are up by 1% and bond yields are down by 1% today? I must be missing something.
Maybe some hot money coming in to push yields down & stocks up?
or dropping yields are making stocks a little more attractive in comparison?
Of course one would think that would push gold & silver prices up as well, I would think.
Risk off? Seems absurd.
Off to the races. Back to Dow 13,000. The recession is over. And what is that? Why its a green shoot. We're decoupling from reality. I"m falling. Auntie Emme. A rashka affainiffa rapplenoose.
Dow up 110 you doomers! DJIA never goes down! Bernanke bid 4evah!
it always goes up before an epic crash...
I don't mind loosing money on a trade if the trade makes sense. last week bothered me, but today really bothers me.
what you can see today, if you are a charter, esp usng speed line.
it is such manipulation. there is a point the algo's foer it to go to and then sell.
we borke it friday, sho shouldhave been down. I bought some emerging makets, took the profit just in case, but geeze
OK DOW, just don't crash and burn UNTIL I come back from Vegas in June, k? Thx.
Tis rather strange today, with the Consumer Confidence print of 64.9 vs an expected 69.2 and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Report printing at -5.1 vs an expected 3.0, which is a pretty fucking big miss - market goes up. WTF?
Algos forgot how to read headlines?
But the future looks good...
@ Cognitive Dissonance --> "Down so long it seems like up to me"
Comes from this 1928 Furry Lewis blues song :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZ-qmRS3-a4
Checkit! dirty oldtime music
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