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From Bad To Worse As Europe Opens
The overnight news of worries over Dexia's bailout deal and the weak Chinese PMI print did nothing to help the generally poor sentiment as the US closed on the stress test news. Equity and Treasury Futures (as cash was closed in Tokyo) were in risk off mode but stabilized with ES around 1170 (-1% from US close). With Europe opening and TSYs trading once again, CONTEXT shows that the sell-off is broad based and supports equity weakness for now. European sovereigns are opening generally higher in yield and spread across the board with Ireland the stand-out currently. France and Belgium are also weak performers (Dexia?) followed by Italy and Spain. European credit has gapped down on the open with senior and sub financials worst performers (+7bps and +14bps respectively) followed by XOver and Main (+11bps and +3.5bps) - in line with US underperformance for now. Bloomberg's BE500 equity index just opened gap down around 1% but is outperforming credit for now as EURUSD touches 1.3440 again.
As TSYs reopened 2-3bps lower in yield, CONTEXT converged rapidly to ES weakness as broad weakness is clear across every risk asset. Copper and Silver are falling the most with Oil and Gold (back above $1700) in sync for a small period into the European open but diverging now (oil up and gold down). Oil and Silver are perfectly in sync with USD's strength this week at around 0.6%.
European Sovereigns will likely set the tone once again and spreads are mostly wider relative to Bunds. Ireland standsout as the weakest performer - jumping to its widest since 8/25 as GDP estimates are revised but decompression is rife in almost every segment of the market.
AUD weakness is still the most impressive this week as carry unwinds and economic prints careen into this once unstoppable currency. EUR lost ground, trading back to 1.3450, as DXY is back up to the highs of the week at 78.5 (+0.6% on the week).
Chart: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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If there was ever a time for "the" deflationary crunch, it'd be now. I mean... what else is required?
MORE FEAR
It amazes me how generally indifferent the people are - we are on the verge of a pandemic bond crisis and yet people still assume the governments will ride to the rescue. Nowhere is this more acute than in France...
likely because they will. this is not the end game. its coming within the next two years, but this isn't it - there's a lot more printing to be had. there's simply no way the Fed allows everything to implode, when backstopping foreign notes and MBS at least has the possibility of not being catastrophic. its a choice between a known known and a known unknown, and Bernanke is not going to choose a path of certain destruction (in the form of allowing a deflationary collapse).
Germany will not accept the Fed's printed money. To accept would represent a loss of sovereignty. Won't happen. Sorry, Ben's got no control on this situation.
unless Ben gives the European Banks US Dollars
Check his portfolio and how it ballooned post-2008.. alot of it was spent bailing out foreign banks. And that makes sense because they're attached to his bum-chums in the US Banks via derivatives etc. Europe drops, Blankfien and Dimon follows the Eurotrash down the rat hole
Credit where it's due the private monopoly bank, The Fed, is the worst investor and dumbest policy-maker in the world. It's publicly mandated to backstop Dimon and Blankfein and follow them around picking up their shit ..the ultimate pooper-scooper about to add yet more steaming poo (rotten mortgages) from Goldmans and JP Morgan and i'm sure the Euro-Crap to the portfolio as well
Does 'Loser Ben' have a choice? Like Merkal the time to decide was 2008 when the SHTF and to let it collpase. But he's so invested deep in this shit i'm not sure he can climb out of the sewer... imagine being bag carrier for all the gambling bums (bankers) on the planet and having to backstop 75% of the $600 Trillion US Banks own in derivatives (bad bets/debts)
OT
When will you bozos start thinking outside of the BOX!?
This was the beginning of the take down of the NEW WORLD ORDER and you weren't there!
Now is Climategate Redux 2.0.
Get with the program!
Climategate 2.0 emails – They’re real and they’re spectacular!?http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/22/climategate-2-0/
?http://www.climatedepot.com/
"Unless Ben gives the European Banks US Dollars"
I'm so sick of this shit. Bernanke is the most lawless, unconstrained individual in world history, and there's no end in sight.
Chris, he's a Pawn. Not near the master of anything.
If only things coudl go from bad to verse.
ORI
final-cut-trailer-01/
The problem is that the Germans and ECB have already made too much fuss over the inflationary consequences of unsterlized bond buying. So, if they do give it the go-ahead, the markets will see this as an acceptance of higher inflation and will try to get ahead of the curve.
The problem is, the Neo-Keynesian experiement has run out of money.
As for the Fed, their plan is to wait for the Eurozone to implode, THEN print more to enable US entities to buy up Eurozone assets on the cheap.
You'd be mistaken to think this is about policy, or strategy or Keynes
you'd be better looking at the cocktail party circuit and University registers than economic theory
this is ALL about bailing out your bum-chums
this all ALL about who your freinds are
Note Goldman Sucks and JP Morgue got bailouts, Lehmans and Bear Sterns didn't. Where is the policy direction there???
It was about Benny and Wank Paulson bailing out their university and ingratiated work buddies.
Politics is who you know, not what you know (which is why Govt is the dumbest fuk on the planet)
Dude, here in Germany, most people are just going about their daily routine seemingly oblivious to the monumental disaster which is happening right now. Sheeple syndrom is rife.
I think that there was a phrase that went 'Kraft durch Freude'. Somehow combining the two together yields 'Kraft durch Unwissenheit'. Without consulting my translator, this seems to work out as Strength through Ignorance (correct me if I got it wrong; it's been 45 years). Can we say, playing off fockewulf190's moniker, that the German sheeple are on a Ju87 that won't pull out of the dive?
Wissen ist Macht. Ich weiß nichts. Macht nichts.
The German 10 year Bund acution was "technically uncovered" aka EPIC FAIL....
http://johngaltfla.com/wordpress/2011/11/23/11-23-german-10-year-bund-au...
And the Euro immediately blew up afterwards.
The U.S. will have to bail them out or else is the tact the Germans will take in this matter, watch and see.
RBS back at 18p, First time since Jan 09
mmmmm -RBS are struggling.
I have a business account there, mostly used to put money aside for uk corporation tax. Not vast sums - but bigger than backstopped by HMG -Time to move it perhaps....but where?
Let's start prognosticating when Europe indices drop at least 3%......
That's gonna suck.
Well DEXIA IS bigger then Lehman... and France-Belgium is way smaller then the US... and the European banking system is ALREADY on the verge of collapse...
So yeah.
Groupe de Francfort will likely back a new EU plan soon ... maybe a great plan, maybe a not-so-good plan, maybe a rubbish plan, but at least a new attempt-to-jolt-the-market plan.
Groupe de Francfort, our 8 key EU economic decision-makers, whom Pepe Escobar has half-jokingly called the EU 'Standing Committee of the Politburo':
Nicolas Sarkozy, President of France
Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany
José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission
Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Council
Olli Rehn, EU Vice-President, Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs
Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the Eurogroup - Euro-zone Finance Ministers
Mario Draghi, President, European Central Bank
Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
All of them are total scum who should be in front of a firing squad.
F I R E !!!!!!!!
It's READY! FIRE! AIM!
Given that the only two elected members of the Council of Supreme EuroSoviets have elections coming up, you know they are going to try something...
Shtickshave time ?
Meanwhile back at the ranch, Grandma is beating off the Indians... http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Do the Indians like it when Grandma beats them off?
Wow you are really fast at picking things up and letting everyone know you can.
Panel will consider breaking up major European banks, Barnier says
Michel Barnier, the EU's internal-market commissioner, said the European Commission will establish a group to look into separating retail banking and investment banking to reduce risk. "It will have a look on that subject of structure of banks and separation in risk management," Barnier said. The idea is based on similar efforts in the UK and the US.Financial Times (tiered subscription model) (22 Nov.), Reuters (22 Nov.), Nasdaq.com/Dow Jones Newswires (22 Nov.)
Here comes a one world bank with a one world monetary unit. Here come the warm jets.
To me this is kind of funny...because by now I would assume the Banks now longer have too many regular customers...the simple savings and checking accounts...they have pulled their money out...bank runs....so all that is left is the gambling casino side...
Love the Brian Eno reference.
No one will make a decision as the swirl intensifies. But not too long now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phWv7l8Lm_A
Who predicted that 23-11 was the end of the euro? Is the EUR/USD finally breaking lower where it should be?
Metals now getting smashed.
Everything "tangible" getting thrown out the window.
The only thing now worth owning is U.S. Fiat "Paper"
The market has spoken.
Bernanke is simply not printing fast enough.
Yep. Need more John Wayne toilet paper.
Rough and tough and won't take shit from an Indian.
"won't take shit from an Indian."
See above post - Grandma's taking care of the Indians.
Bad Robot!
A serious question for you RobotTrader.
Are you invested in UST's & if so what duration? Bills? Long bonds?
Just a friendly heads up: Robo almost never replies. And is hardly ever on subject even if he does.
Cheers
and he is actually a japanese science project... they recently took away his balls so that is why he doesn't post big boobs and ass anymore
http://sgtreport.com/2011/11/sprott-goes-for-the-silver-fences-can-he-de...
"intent of purchasing $1,500,000,000 of physical silver for the PSLV."
This will clean out the COMEX of its claimed inventory of 30 million ounces.
WOOHOO, WOOHOO, WOOHOO, WOOHOO, WOOHOO, WOOHOO, WOOHOO.
More importantly, this will clean the COMEX out of the two or three million ounces that they actually have.
But the silver-deniers blew up MFG a few weeks ago when they were in a corner. What other surprises might we see? Any ideas?
Here's an idea, read this - http://kiddynamitesworld.com/sprott-physical-silver-trust-will-not-go-ou...
AUD going down faster than gold. Actually gold is going up for me, for now.
I'm a credit bubble, that's for sure.
Tyler - GET SOME SLEEP MAN
Up at 3:30 watching Europe is not good for the mind sharpness. I am concerned for your health.
I will call you if there is any major event.
How do you call Tyler?
Do you have a spotlight on top of the building, that can project the sign of the Big Theta onto the moonlit clouds?
First rule is.....never talk about.....
When you call Tyler - he will come. It's been prophesied in the book of Lore - you can find him by following the 'Great Bear Constellation' in the sky.
It also predicted that Tyler and Cramer will meet in a bare knuckle battle to the death in a basement car park. The ultimate Bull vs the Ultimate Bear.
Tickets not available.
"Tickets not available."
Exactly. This is all a part of Whitney Tilsons grand plan to resurrect his holdings. It will only be available on NetFlix!
Yeah he should really get to Fight Club, he's been letting that slip with all this economy stuff.
UPDATE: Oh, contagion came to Germany... it looks to be because of today's failed German 10YR auction: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GDBR10:IND Who's bonds will ECB buy first today. We have both Austrian, Belgian, French, German, Greek, Italian, Spanish, Netherlands bonds selloffs in the same time.
Ooops, what happened to ze EUR at 5:30am? It just plunged to $1,3374.
Beggars, the whole lot of them.
WE NEED THAT GUY WHO PULLED THAT RABIT FROM HIS HAT THAT I SAW ON TV TO SAVE US!!!
What about that guy i saw cut a person in half - we could do that with the debt.
No blood was shed and the audience clapped.
Better than the current thinking where much blood will be shed and there will be Boo's all round from the disappointed audience.
Jeezzz!! JUST IMAGINE THAT THEY TEAMED UP!
Awesome.
...and David Blaine in a box suspended over Germany?
Here we go....did you see the new stress test for us banks...13% unemployment...8% drop in GDP...EU collapse......Lets see how they do on that one...me thinks they better buy gold as their raised capital requirements...So if the Fed is forcasting this...hmmm..makes one wonder....
Have you noticed there are no more emergency meetings in the Eurozone.....and all the countries are in trouble now....
AND the USA sold 5 years for les than 1%....go figure..
You would think APPLE being down would be enough to tank the markets
But yes gold and silver down....lol....
and DAX goes positive..entertaining
"and DAX goes positive"
Inverse "risk off" play? Where instead of rushing to Bunds (once perceived as lower risk) it is now seen as a source of higher risk and those investors are now moving into equities? The reasoning could be:
Hey, even if the country fails, its manufacturing base will still be around.
Did anyone see this from yesterday?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/8909219/Thomas-Cook-shares-rebound-af...
Not big international news - but this is a further sign of depression. The company has been running on fumes for sometime now as people (obviously) cut back on their package holidays.
They had the cheek to ask the banks to lend them money! - What an absurd notion - we all know banks no longer lend - robbery is far more profitable.
1 bad takeover and a series of black swans (volcanic ash, Arab Spring, fukushima etc.) and the biggest UK tour operator is done for.
Funny how these black swans are so frequent in depression - or maybe it's subjective as their destruction is memorable in hard times and forgettable in good times.
A Bull v Bear war has broken out over this.
Linked to it in the "200k finance jobs go" thread - page 2 or 3 by now given the amount of TD's posts hitting the wire.
The collapse isn't just from 41p - check the April 2010 price. £2.70.
DAX green
German Bond auction flops!
http://www.businessinsider.com/german-bond-auction-weak-2011-11
This time next week: ECB buys German bonds in the secondary market..........ROFL
Could this be a buyer's strike by certain entities which disapprove of German policies? A little shot across the bow of the Bismarc by bankster thugs who want something perhaps?
Germany....bombed?! Takes you back!
European and US leaders: no policy momentum against this crisis. These leaders are failing the market every day now for a week. When do they start to think about re-elections again, or has this dream been thrown out as well?
Is there a Groupon for American Silver or Gold Eagles?
Can I "linkin" with the Rothschilds?
Is it possible to "friend" the Squid on iSpace?
what was the ES drop at 7:01 CST all about anyways....fuckin A.
what was the ES drop at 7:01 CST all about anyways....fuckin A.