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Baffle With BS Continues: Non-Manufacturing ISM Better Than Expected As Employment Drops To Lowest Since 2011

Tyler Durden's picture


The strategy to keep everyone utterly confused and merely chasing momentum and trends continues. After the surge in this morning's NFP report, driven entirely by statistical fudging and part-time jobs, which has sent the market higher by well over 1%, we next get a Services ISM update for July according to which the US non-manufcaturing sector improved modestly, to 52.6, on expectations of an unchanged print at 52.1, making the case for NEW QE even more distant. But wait, just to keep everyone totally baffled with BS, the ISM says that the employment index dipped below 50 for the first time since 2011, printing at 49.3 from 52.3: in other words, the employment in the US services sector is now contracting, something which the NFP number roundly denied. Confusion? Mutual exclusivity? It doesn't matter to algos, who are confident that the Fed will certainly launch more QE with the S&P at 2012 highs no matter what the facts say.

Of course, the punchline continue to be the respondents who see only downside. But this too is irrelevant.

  • "The general economy and unemployment are keeping our business flat." (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • "Beginning to see effects of slowing economy. New orders are down versus same time last year." (Information)
  • "Business is slowing; input costs are weakening." (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
  • "Seeing a slight uptick in sales revenue." (Public Administration)
  • "Things have not changed too much this past month; however, we are seeing more aggressive marketing/sales efforts by suppliers hungry for business." (Transportation & Warehousing)
  • "Overall, we are still seeing growth over last year, but the sequential growth has gone flat to negative." (Wholesale Trade)

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Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:15 | 2675657 The Wizard of Oz
The Wizard of Oz's picture


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:21 | 2675683 malikai
malikai's picture

Get ready kids.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:38 | 2675956 Vaiman
Vaiman's picture

It's just the market makers chopping everything up and down to confuse everyone else so they can load up on contracts before they initiate a larger move.  Same shit over and over.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:26 | 2675702 LMAOLORI
Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:33 | 2675733 optimator
optimator's picture

That's assuming the FED wants to keep B.O. in office. 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:37 | 2675750 malikai
malikai's picture

He's served his handlers well.

But maybe they will find that the sheeple need a new face to hate.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:05 | 2675858 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Could the gurus here explain why US futures were ripping higher before the NFP and why Europe was also ripping before the data?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:05 | 2675849 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

I think they're waiting for an all-time market high to launch QE3 - should be mid October by my reckoning, about the time the VIX and the 10 Year yield go sub 0.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:31 | 2675725 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

No QE3.

QE will be in Europe because they have no choice.  No QE3, USD headed up.  What will equities do?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:26 | 2675923 IronShield
IronShield's picture

USD headed to 72 first and then you might get a rise; QE or not.  IMHO.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:19 | 2675666 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Who needs jobs when you can just print.


Don't even have to QE when you can just print up some stats.  Hard to buy food with those, but who cares let's go to the Hamptons.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:18 | 2675667 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

You will never find this in the main steam news network, their misson statement is to lie to the American people and suport the commuinst party. 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:28 | 2675713 optimator
optimator's picture

I once asked a friend from the former Soviet Eastern Block if they really said they put up the Berlin Wall to stop the West from streaming in.  The answer was, "Yes, what else could they say".

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:29 | 2675719 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Obama a Communist? You're dreaming.  He is the BFF in chief to the Banksters, who are hardly socialists. 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:55 | 2675826 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

You give them way too much credit.  They are simply lazy. 

Did you know that a black girl won the Olympics?  Did you see someone's tit was shown in the water polo match.  Did you know Mitt Romney is RICH?

With all of that crap as news...why should they read the second page of a release.



Fri, 08/03/2012 - 12:02 | 2676028 LoneCapitalist
LoneCapitalist's picture

What was that about someones tit? do you have a link?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:18 | 2675670 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Socialism 101

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:24 | 2675695 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Fascism 101" - fixed.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:18 | 2675672 Jason T
Jason T's picture

I'm baffled ..seriously.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:25 | 2675696 Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture

The objective is to ensure the re-election of the current Administration.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:39 | 2675764 duo
duo's picture

Schroedinger's cat called.  He wants either his momentum or his position back, but not both.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:19 | 2675676 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Reading all these comments on the falsity of statisitics, I can only agree.  But it's been that way for years: one statistic contradicting another and multiple revisions and wide margins of error.  Instead of stressing about it, just trade accordingly.  If the algos beat you to it, stay out of the market and have a beer.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:19 | 2675677 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Apparently the Crime Families have presented us with a paradigm shift. Now, "good" news is good for stocks.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:19 | 2675678 vinu02
vinu02's picture

Bad news is good news in this market, good news is obviously a good news. Rally on

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:20 | 2675681 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

"THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH!".....that's my Father informing me years ago that nothing in this world is free....I feel confident other rental units used the same line...


Since that phrase is so 20th century.....I have a new one that I am teaching my kids....



Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:21 | 2675684 Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

The level of number fudging and outright lies will only climb higher as we get closer to November. NFP gave O a headline number he can boast about, while anyone with two working brain cells to rub together can look inside the numbers and see that they are pure vaporware. Don't expect anything close that sort of analysis in the MSM.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:04 | 2675854 20-20 Hindsight
20-20 Hindsight's picture

I fully agree, Coast Watcher, but I just don't see things changing even after the election.  I fear that this crap will go on for years and years.  How many times have we read that the end was nigh, with tons of stats and info supporting the inevitable armageddon just around the corner?  And yet, it NEVER happens.  There is always some bullshit white knight in shining armour that comes to the rescue at the last minute to provide a little bit more hopium for the stupid masses.  The game is totally rigged at the top among the banksters, corporate thugs and corrupt government officials, so nothing leads me to believe that things will ever change. 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:21 | 2675685 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

good morning MUPPETS !!

just woke up here in CA and spx is up +1.75 and EUR to 1.232 up from yesterday's 1.216 = NICE !!

yesterday i covered my spx 1386 shorts that i placed on 7/27 @ 1360 and also covered my EUR shorts from 1.23 @ 1.216

WHO IS YOUR DADDY !!!! ???? I feel like reshorting now @ 1390 !! gimme 1395+ and i'll reshort !!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:29 | 2675699 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

spx STUCK @ 1390

feel like shorting here..but best to be patient..maybe 1400 next week.

ODUMMERNOMICS/QEorganizer-RAPIST: give casino a bone, tell labor dept to report 8.3% unemployment...NOT 9% bc that would be bad for me..but 8.3% to keep QE-RAPIST INFLATION, DEBT for the peasants and QE for the WS cranks aaaaliiiiive !!

so glad i covered yesterday @ spx 1360 = FOR A PROFIT!!

and EUR shorts of 1.23+ @ 1.216 yeah baby !!!

100% in cash as of YESTERDAY....gimme spx 1400 = me short !!

correction:  spx up 1.75% glad i covered my spx 1386 shorts yesterday @ 1360 !! stupid QEorganizer didn't get me, na-na, na-na boo-boo !!! LOL !!!!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:45 | 2675791 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture


na-na, na-na boo-boo !!! LOL !!!!

Indeed, the secret wish of all gamblers is to lose.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:36 | 2675747 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

are the TROLLS gonna reply??

or just thumb down my AWESOMELY trades !! (awesomely predictions)

QEoganizer:  up unemployment a tad...just to keep WS cranks happy, but NOT so high that it hurts me


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:46 | 2675799 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

Sure I will reply.  No one gives a shit about your trades because guys that post like maniacs about their short term trading success always seem to disapear within a month (most likely because they go broke).

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:25 | 2675818 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

thank you

i'm gonna short this pig @ 1410 and ride to sub 1300....wait for dead cat bounce and ride to sub 1100..

just like on may 1st 2012 spx 1411 ride to 1270 6/4.

shoe shine boy marc hulbert (cbs-mw) said on 5/1:  may doesn't have to be bad for stocks...he's got a track record as a shoe shine boy...spx then @ 1410

RODE for 5+ weeks and covered on 6/4 when on 6/2 he said:  watch for an AVALANCHE OF SELL ORDERS = me panic short cover!! thank you shoe shine boy...

IF you look through my will see links to his 5/1 and 6/4 predictions = I BET against him !!! LOL !!!!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 14:02 | 2676350 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

doctor heal thyself....

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:31 | 2675938 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

just RE-SHORTED spx @ 1392 !!


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:22 | 2675689 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

ive been to meetings like this. Your reports and data are bad, but your boss doesnt want to hear that, and you dont want to have to tell your boss.   So you just spin the shit out of it.  He's happy to not hear bad news, your happy as to not have to give bad news, and well as for "reality"...  well that can just be hidden away for awhile longer.



Fri, 08/03/2012 - 13:10 | 2676228 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Yep! That's what's become of this country and its lame excuse for 'citizens'. Pity we have fallen so far in such a short time....

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:29 | 2675690 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Looking good!


Backlog down -3.

Imports down.

Prices up +6%

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:23 | 2675693 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Prices and imports are pretty interesting. No signs of trouble there. Onwards and upwards we go.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:23 | 2675694 resurger
resurger's picture

Unexpectedly expected....

I'am now even more certain that this wont end well for this market....


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:36 | 2675698 OldE_Ant
OldE_Ant's picture

Time to put my bear ass in front of the longs again and start the reload of my shorts.

Yep things are good, and the snakebite casino still has some squirm left in it.

<sarc>Clearly these numbers are BULLISH.</sarc>

Daaamnnn.  Dollar down almost a percent.  Oil up $3-4. And nothing like $4+ gas to give it to the slaves.  Glad I filled up the home gas reserve in the 3.4 range.  Come on push this S&P biyaatch to 1400.

End of Line

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:41 | 2675772 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture


i covered my spx 1386 shorts from 7/27, yesterday @ 1360 (bottom = 1355)....i was thinking about going long, but didn't that's ok..will go long when @ sub 1100.

thinking about shorting here @ 1390....but maybe by end of day (last few minutes) @ 1395+ and then i feel more CONfident to ride from there. keep some ammo for next week if @ 1400+


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:26 | 2675705 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

hows it feel joe sixpack to get fucked up the ass again by wall street.?? 4$$ per barrel rip in crude just cause we beat by 65k jobs. the fleecing never ends.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:40 | 2675771 DeFeralCat
DeFeralCat's picture

Yes, just think if Bernake had printed on Wednesday. Would oil have gone up another 2 bucks on top of everything? Give him some credit for not front running this number assuming he did not know that the BLS would count every election worker three times.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:27 | 2675707 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

No more jokes on China's RAND() then...

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:27 | 2675708 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Ben's fondest wish has come true - no need for QE 3, the eventual failure of which would have removed the credibility cloak the Fed still wears proudly, if still utterly naked underneath.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:27 | 2675711 razorthin
razorthin's picture

I can't wake myself up from this Ayn Rand, Orwellian nightmare.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:28 | 2675712 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

the markets just want  to go up. for the moment all this carrying on about the labor statistics and "sliver bitchez" and all the other bs is just a load of crap.  i'll reduce longs when some article shows up on this web-site suggesting the markets are headed higher.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:29 | 2675720 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

When does the bottle cap pop off, seriously?

This shit is not only not sustainable, it's not even long term sustainable.  The can kicking can't keep people down forever.  Someone WILL get their revenge.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:31 | 2675724 fuu
fuu's picture

I thought ZIRP/NIRP = QE. Did I miss another memo?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:34 | 2675739 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Not to worry people,

When the draft comes, we can be assured that Obomba's kids, and timmys kids, and geitners kids, and rubins kids, and clintons kids, and bushes kids will be drafted before our kids.

They want this war, let the yellow belly fucking criminal scum send their fucking inbred retards before we send our own kids anywhere.

If you happen to read this NSA, GCHQ, I mean every last word.  Fuck you, and the fucking mule you rode in on.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:35 | 2675740 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

QE3 is already priced in.  These wild swings - up 150 one day, down 150 the next, up 150 on the third day - this is a corrective wave pattern that is exhausting itself on positive news.


In short, when the positive news runs its course, the market will, surprisingly, turn back down and most will be caught off guard.  Elliott wave count shows wave 3 down is pending.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:04 | 2675851 Jake88
Jake88's picture

elliott wave is utter nonsense

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:35 | 2675741 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

What the heck is going on with BLS data?

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Seasonal adjustment of the Employed

June: 142415

July: 142220 (-195K)

But jobs added went up??

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:41 | 2675774 adr
adr's picture

Every single actual number in the report was down. Labor force participation is down. Actual numbers of unemployed people is up, and the unemployment rate went up.

The BLS got a call and they were told the report must show an increase. All to probably give a cover to preserve Knight Capital.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:36 | 2675742 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

This is a totally fraud driven rally. Not one real number anyone can point to in order to justify the 1000 point move in the last two weeks. Amazing. I find the market simply continues with short squeeze rallys and that is all. Good luck trading this nonsense.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:36 | 2675748 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

"when the positive news runs out" uh what positive news? im all ears.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:47 | 2675981 Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

Phelps won another gold , that should count

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:36 | 2675749 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

More people have gone on disability since July 1, 2010 than have dropped off unemployment rolls by a whopping margin of 192,000!!!!

A part-time, disabled jobs recovery.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:38 | 2675756 adr
adr's picture

Today is just like Draghi day! Everything shooting up far above any realistic expectation. Oil going to the moon, Nat gas shot up $.10.

EVEN FUCKING FACEBOOK WAS TAKING A ROCKET RIDE. Until it looks like someone caught the algo and took Facebook of the bulk buy for the day.

It really does look like there is only one or two computers buying this entire market.


I don't think you can call it baffling with BS anymore. BS usually has to still be believable enough to get people to fall for it.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:38 | 2675757 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Hapless bears how have been shorting for 3 1/2 years must be ready for the insane asylum.


Thousands upon thousands of "acclaimed experts" and "esteemed gurus" like Rosie, Janjuah, Hugh Hendry, etc. now look like complete fools.

Bob Brinker "Buy the Dip" followers have been rewarded repeatedly.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:43 | 2675785 adr
adr's picture

When you say 2+2=4 and the others on TV are proclaiming 2+2=5 because the guy that employs them thinks that is the right answer, does that make you wrong?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:08 | 2675871 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

and in the long run we are all dead ...

being correct is one thing, timing usually is the operative factor though in success or not.  But when the powers that be feel they can constantly mess with 'perceptions' so that 'timing' is likewise messed with ala wondrous George Soros' Reflexivity Theory ... then eventually bad things will happen and there will be less control over, and surrounding any ability to deal with matters as they spin out of control  ..... because it will be then too late for the Sorcerer to rectify the mishap of the Sorcerer's Apprentice.

I would not be crowing about your short-tem gains.  The ancient Greeks, for good reason, were very wary to challenging the gods with their hubris. You should be too 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:40 | 2675766 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Math does not lie, but people do.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:40 | 2675770 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Summer Of Recovery IV, We finally got it right

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:02 | 2675841 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

About 6+ weeks ago, Barron's Statistics Editor noticed that US electrical consumption was off like 1.5% which is a material downdraft in slow going statistical trends.  All the green energy initiatives, assumed to work 100% perfectly, could not justify such a drop.  Nor could the mild Winter, overall weather, etc.

Typically, when this appears, it portends a drop-off in manufacturing and overall commerical activity .. and hence... economic slowdown.

Barron's was 'attacked' for presenting this ... like they were 'negative Nellies',  unpatriotic or something so they clammed up ( as any of us would)

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:04 | 2675847 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Is this why stores are empty?  Numbers seem out of whack.

Same goes for housing. I see more vacant houses sitting there but no "For Sale" signs......months of emptiness, unmowed lawns, and even broken fences sometimes. Why not put them up for lease or sell the suckers and clean up the Hood?    I would even consider buying one for less then $42 psf.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:22 | 2675906 larz
larz's picture

four more years! four more years!  of Mittens Obamanator my personal confidence indicator is at a seasonaly adjusted ALL TIME HIGH nobel peace prizes and PhD's for all!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:38 | 2675946 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Our Congress in DC can't pass jobs bills (not that they'll make a dent in the number, anyways).  But they can pass anti-freedom of assembly laws:

I was stunned upon hearing a news report about a protest going on in China. Teachers, parents with their young, school-age children and pro-democracy activitists (one estimate was 90,000 people) marched in Hong Kong to government headquarters last Sunday to publicly protest a new required “Patriotism” class, to be taught in the school system starting in 2015. The protestors think that the effort of the Chinese government here is to brainwash their kids in favor of communism. 

What stunned me was that this protest, in China, against the government’s upcoming policy, at the government headquarters, would not now be tolerated here in the United States of America.

Last year’s “occupy movement” scared the government. On March 8, President Obama signed a law that makes protesting more difficult and more criminal. The law is titled the Federal Restricted Buildings and Grounds Improvement Act, and it passed unanimously in the Senate and with only three “no” votes in the House. It was called the "Trepass Bill" by Congress and the "anti-Occupy law" by everyone else who commented.

The law makes it punishable by up to ten years in jail to protest anywhere the Secret Service “is or will be temporarily visiting,” or anywhere they might be guarding someone.

Well there goes me protesting wages at a Columbian Brothel anytime soon. 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 12:05 | 2676041 bagehot99
bagehot99's picture


Fucking chickenshit cowards.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 13:48 | 2676324 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Get over it, unemployment of 8% is the new normal. Will never get down where it was before. Bullish.

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