Baffle With BS Continues: Non-Manufacturing ISM Better Than Expected As Employment Drops To Lowest Since 2011

Tyler Durden's picture


The strategy to keep everyone utterly confused and merely chasing momentum and trends continues. After the surge in this morning's NFP report, driven entirely by statistical fudging and part-time jobs, which has sent the market higher by well over 1%, we next get a Services ISM update for July according to which the US non-manufcaturing sector improved modestly, to 52.6, on expectations of an unchanged print at 52.1, making the case for NEW QE even more distant. But wait, just to keep everyone totally baffled with BS, the ISM says that the employment index dipped below 50 for the first time since 2011, printing at 49.3 from 52.3: in other words, the employment in the US services sector is now contracting, something which the NFP number roundly denied. Confusion? Mutual exclusivity? It doesn't matter to algos, who are confident that the Fed will certainly launch more QE with the S&P at 2012 highs no matter what the facts say.

Of course, the punchline continue to be the respondents who see only downside. But this too is irrelevant.

  • "The general economy and unemployment are keeping our business flat." (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • "Beginning to see effects of slowing economy. New orders are down versus same time last year." (Information)
  • "Business is slowing; input costs are weakening." (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
  • "Seeing a slight uptick in sales revenue." (Public Administration)
  • "Things have not changed too much this past month; however, we are seeing more aggressive marketing/sales efforts by suppliers hungry for business." (Transportation & Warehousing)
  • "Overall, we are still seeing growth over last year, but the sequential growth has gone flat to negative." (Wholesale Trade)
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Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:15 | 2675657 The Wizard of Oz
The Wizard of Oz's picture


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:21 | 2675683 malikai
malikai's picture

Get ready kids.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:38 | 2675956 Vaiman
Vaiman's picture

It's just the market makers chopping everything up and down to confuse everyone else so they can load up on contracts before they initiate a larger move.  Same shit over and over.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:26 | 2675702 LMAOLORI
Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:33 | 2675733 optimator
optimator's picture

That's assuming the FED wants to keep B.O. in office. 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:37 | 2675750 malikai
malikai's picture

He's served his handlers well.

But maybe they will find that the sheeple need a new face to hate.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:05 | 2675858 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Could the gurus here explain why US futures were ripping higher before the NFP and why Europe was also ripping before the data?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:05 | 2675849 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

I think they're waiting for an all-time market high to launch QE3 - should be mid October by my reckoning, about the time the VIX and the 10 Year yield go sub 0.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:31 | 2675725 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

No QE3.

QE will be in Europe because they have no choice.  No QE3, USD headed up.  What will equities do?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:26 | 2675923 IronShield
IronShield's picture

USD headed to 72 first and then you might get a rise; QE or not.  IMHO.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:19 | 2675666 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Who needs jobs when you can just print.


Don't even have to QE when you can just print up some stats.  Hard to buy food with those, but who cares let's go to the Hamptons.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:18 | 2675667 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

You will never find this in the main steam news network, their misson statement is to lie to the American people and suport the commuinst party. 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:28 | 2675713 optimator
optimator's picture

I once asked a friend from the former Soviet Eastern Block if they really said they put up the Berlin Wall to stop the West from streaming in.  The answer was, "Yes, what else could they say".

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:29 | 2675719 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Obama a Communist? You're dreaming.  He is the BFF in chief to the Banksters, who are hardly socialists. 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:55 | 2675826 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

You give them way too much credit.  They are simply lazy. 

Did you know that a black girl won the Olympics?  Did you see someone's tit was shown in the water polo match.  Did you know Mitt Romney is RICH?

With all of that crap as news...why should they read the second page of a release.



Fri, 08/03/2012 - 12:02 | 2676028 LoneCapitalist
LoneCapitalist's picture

What was that about someones tit? do you have a link?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:18 | 2675670 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Socialism 101

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:24 | 2675695 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Fascism 101" - fixed.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:18 | 2675672 Jason T
Jason T's picture

I'm baffled ..seriously.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:25 | 2675696 Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture

The objective is to ensure the re-election of the current Administration.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:39 | 2675764 duo
duo's picture

Schroedinger's cat called.  He wants either his momentum or his position back, but not both.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:19 | 2675676 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Reading all these comments on the falsity of statisitics, I can only agree.  But it's been that way for years: one statistic contradicting another and multiple revisions and wide margins of error.  Instead of stressing about it, just trade accordingly.  If the algos beat you to it, stay out of the market and have a beer.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:19 | 2675677 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Apparently the Crime Families have presented us with a paradigm shift. Now, "good" news is good for stocks.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:19 | 2675678 vinu02
vinu02's picture

Bad news is good news in this market, good news is obviously a good news. Rally on

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:20 | 2675681 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

"THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH!".....that's my Father informing me years ago that nothing in this world is free....I feel confident other rental units used the same line...


Since that phrase is so 20th century.....I have a new one that I am teaching my kids....



Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:21 | 2675684 Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

The level of number fudging and outright lies will only climb higher as we get closer to November. NFP gave O a headline number he can boast about, while anyone with two working brain cells to rub together can look inside the numbers and see that they are pure vaporware. Don't expect anything close that sort of analysis in the MSM.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:04 | 2675854 20-20 Hindsight
20-20 Hindsight's picture

I fully agree, Coast Watcher, but I just don't see things changing even after the election.  I fear that this crap will go on for years and years.  How many times have we read that the end was nigh, with tons of stats and info supporting the inevitable armageddon just around the corner?  And yet, it NEVER happens.  There is always some bullshit white knight in shining armour that comes to the rescue at the last minute to provide a little bit more hopium for the stupid masses.  The game is totally rigged at the top among the banksters, corporate thugs and corrupt government officials, so nothing leads me to believe that things will ever change. 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:21 | 2675685 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

good morning MUPPETS !!

just woke up here in CA and spx is up +1.75 and EUR to 1.232 up from yesterday's 1.216 = NICE !!

yesterday i covered my spx 1386 shorts that i placed on 7/27 @ 1360 and also covered my EUR shorts from 1.23 @ 1.216

WHO IS YOUR DADDY !!!! ???? I feel like reshorting now @ 1390 !! gimme 1395+ and i'll reshort !!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:29 | 2675699 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

spx STUCK @ 1390

feel like shorting here..but best to be patient..maybe 1400 next week.

ODUMMERNOMICS/QEorganizer-RAPIST: give casino a bone, tell labor dept to report 8.3% unemployment...NOT 9% bc that would be bad for me..but 8.3% to keep QE-RAPIST INFLATION, DEBT for the peasants and QE for the WS cranks aaaaliiiiive !!

so glad i covered yesterday @ spx 1360 = FOR A PROFIT!!

and EUR shorts of 1.23+ @ 1.216 yeah baby !!!

100% in cash as of YESTERDAY....gimme spx 1400 = me short !!

correction:  spx up 1.75% glad i covered my spx 1386 shorts yesterday @ 1360 !! stupid QEorganizer didn't get me, na-na, na-na boo-boo !!! LOL !!!!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:45 | 2675791 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture


na-na, na-na boo-boo !!! LOL !!!!

Indeed, the secret wish of all gamblers is to lose.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:36 | 2675747 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

are the TROLLS gonna reply??

or just thumb down my AWESOMELY trades !! (awesomely predictions)

QEoganizer:  up unemployment a tad...just to keep WS cranks happy, but NOT so high that it hurts me


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:46 | 2675799 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

Sure I will reply.  No one gives a shit about your trades because guys that post like maniacs about their short term trading success always seem to disapear within a month (most likely because they go broke).

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:25 | 2675818 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

thank you

i'm gonna short this pig @ 1410 and ride to sub 1300....wait for dead cat bounce and ride to sub 1100..

just like on may 1st 2012 spx 1411 ride to 1270 6/4.

shoe shine boy marc hulbert (cbs-mw) said on 5/1:  may doesn't have to be bad for stocks...he's got a track record as a shoe shine boy...spx then @ 1410

RODE for 5+ weeks and covered on 6/4 when on 6/2 he said:  watch for an AVALANCHE OF SELL ORDERS = me panic short cover!! thank you shoe shine boy...

IF you look through my will see links to his 5/1 and 6/4 predictions = I BET against him !!! LOL !!!!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 14:02 | 2676350 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

doctor heal thyself....

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:31 | 2675938 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

just RE-SHORTED spx @ 1392 !!


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:22 | 2675689 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

ive been to meetings like this. Your reports and data are bad, but your boss doesnt want to hear that, and you dont want to have to tell your boss.   So you just spin the shit out of it.  He's happy to not hear bad news, your happy as to not have to give bad news, and well as for "reality"...  well that can just be hidden away for awhile longer.



Fri, 08/03/2012 - 13:10 | 2676228 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Yep! That's what's become of this country and its lame excuse for 'citizens'. Pity we have fallen so far in such a short time....

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:29 | 2675690 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Looking good!


Backlog down -3.

Imports down.

Prices up +6%

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:23 | 2675693 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Prices and imports are pretty interesting. No signs of trouble there. Onwards and upwards we go.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:23 | 2675694 resurger
resurger's picture

Unexpectedly expected....

I'am now even more certain that this wont end well for this market....


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:36 | 2675698 OldE_Ant
OldE_Ant's picture

Time to put my bear ass in front of the longs again and start the reload of my shorts.

Yep things are good, and the snakebite casino still has some squirm left in it.

<sarc>Clearly these numbers are BULLISH.</sarc>

Daaamnnn.  Dollar down almost a percent.  Oil up $3-4. And nothing like $4+ gas to give it to the slaves.  Glad I filled up the home gas reserve in the 3.4 range.  Come on push this S&P biyaatch to 1400.

End of Line

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:41 | 2675772 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture


i covered my spx 1386 shorts from 7/27, yesterday @ 1360 (bottom = 1355)....i was thinking about going long, but didn't that's ok..will go long when @ sub 1100.

thinking about shorting here @ 1390....but maybe by end of day (last few minutes) @ 1395+ and then i feel more CONfident to ride from there. keep some ammo for next week if @ 1400+


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:26 | 2675705 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

hows it feel joe sixpack to get fucked up the ass again by wall street.?? 4$$ per barrel rip in crude just cause we beat by 65k jobs. the fleecing never ends.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:40 | 2675771 DeFeralCat
DeFeralCat's picture

Yes, just think if Bernake had printed on Wednesday. Would oil have gone up another 2 bucks on top of everything? Give him some credit for not front running this number assuming he did not know that the BLS would count every election worker three times.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:27 | 2675707 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

No more jokes on China's RAND() then...

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:27 | 2675708 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Ben's fondest wish has come true - no need for QE 3, the eventual failure of which would have removed the credibility cloak the Fed still wears proudly, if still utterly naked underneath.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:27 | 2675711 razorthin
razorthin's picture

I can't wake myself up from this Ayn Rand, Orwellian nightmare.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:28 | 2675712 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

the markets just want  to go up. for the moment all this carrying on about the labor statistics and "sliver bitchez" and all the other bs is just a load of crap.  i'll reduce longs when some article shows up on this web-site suggesting the markets are headed higher.

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