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Bank of America "Returns" The JPM Upgrade Favor By Slashing Jamie Dimon's Q3 EPS By 25%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

One of the key catalysts (aside from the retarded rumor that JPM would buy Bank of America) that prevented BAC's stock from dropping to a 5 handle yesterday, was JPM's credit upgrade of Bank of America (report here). Sure enough, the reacharound from BAC is as usual missing, with the response from the bank's banking analyst Guy Moszkowski, being to... downgrade JPM. And he did not stop there: he also cut, GS, MS, and C: in other words the entire TBTF brigade. Someone should probably explain to Guy that any sell off in BAC's peers will be doubly acute in the stock of BAC itself, which has now become the whipping boy for the shorts, and the proxy of all that is wrong in the US and European banking system. Then again, with the palpable sheer panic in the corridors of 1 Bryant Park, we doubt anyone at that bank has any idea what they are doing at all.

From the BAC report:

Lowering 3Q forecasts, POs on magnified seasonal decline due to heightened volatility, which has been particularly difficult to manage following S&P US-debt downgrade. Firms likely saw sizable inventory hits; partially offset by better equity trading, particularly in cash, though derivatives challenged given volatility spike. IB weaker as well, as volatility dampened deal appetite. GS PO to $148 from $153, MS to $25 from $26; JPM to $51 from $55; C to $50 from $53.

 

3Q Highlights: Card credit cont to improve; strong mortgage refinancing activity; cash equity trading resilient in seasonally slow summer, particularly in Retail.

 

3Q Lowlights: Challenges for FICC, Equity derivatives as volatility spikes; S&P US-debt downgrade; Europe concerns extend to France; IB activity weak across M&A and underwriting. Significant declines in equity, credit markets; recessionary concerns escalate.

 

Potential catalysts: Germany, France propose viable solutions to contain Eurodebt issues; Europe bank funding concerns abate; resolution to mortgage litigation; better macro indicators, suggesting recession less likely.

And JPM:

JPM: Lowering 3Q11E to $1.07 from $1.30 (cons. $1.24); weaker trading (-$0.03) and IB revenues (-$0.02) drive negative operating leverage (-$0.05). Weaker NIM, lower reserve release (Cards, Mortgage), and PE markdowns drive remainder of EPS cuts (-$0.15), partially offset by stronger mortgage refi activity (+$.02).

Full report:

BAC on Fins

 

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Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:24 | 1594704 eureka
eureka's picture

Upgrade downgrade. Not only BAC will fall - America/US itself will fall.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:26 | 1594713 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bankers now turning and cannibalizing each other...the last stage before the whole thing implodes in on itself. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:37 | 1594747 centerline
centerline's picture

Not sure if they are chewing yet.  But it seems they are looking at each other like food.  LOL.  It is inevitable though.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:00 | 1595387 Koffieshop
Koffieshop's picture

Since the crisis will allow them to ignore anti-trust law, you can imagine them merging util there is only one big bank. That bank will basically BE the Fed and will keep bailing itself out by printing money.

I'd love to see the talking heads try to sugarcoat THAT on tv......

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:28 | 1594724 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"with the palpable sheer panic in the corridors of 1 Bryant Park"--they all took off early for the weekend and are meeting at TGIF and Hooters down the street for cocktails, watching their leveraged short positions on their own stock rocket up. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:33 | 1594737 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Soon followed by Europe and China.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:26 | 1594711 unununium
unununium's picture

Must wonder if praise would really have flowed forth, if BAC had issued a positive report on the banking crime boss organizations.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:00 | 1594833 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

The TBTF banksters are crime families. and their wars are going public.  Brian Moynihan will get the "Fredo treatment" by BAC board pretty soon, and a big FED bailout on the sly.  

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:26 | 1594712 heyligen
heyligen's picture

Wonder what this Guy Moszkowski guy is thinking (not speaking) about BAC's credit?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:27 | 1594719 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Bumpy road ahead' code for 'bankers know free money party is over'.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:31 | 1594729 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Nothing like downgrading your future captain before he takes over your sinking Viking ship.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:00 | 1594834 Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

Yeah, reminds me a bit of the routine when one of those Nile tour boat captains accidentally sticks it on a sandbar. Since they have to release a little extra water from the Aswan Dam to get it off again, which obviously costs money, the first thing that happens is that the captain's hat gets passed to the youngest member of the crew -"You be Capatain today. And go call Aswan!"

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:32 | 1594731 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

 

Sure enough, the reacharound from BAC is as usual missing,

It's been so long I don't even know what a reacharound is anymore. All I know is that my butt hurts.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:47 | 1594775 TaxSlave
TaxSlave's picture

Someone's been putting crushed glass in the Vaseline.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:32 | 1594733 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Here's to the peeps who walked out of the Bank of Lynching America CountryWide recently with their stuff in boxes; I'm betting they're having a serious schadenfreude moment about now.

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:32 | 1594734 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

But eurozone exposure ain't too bad so..

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:35 | 1594743 Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

Evil will slay evil.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:35 | 1594744 Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

Evil will slay evil.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:58 | 1594785 Bob
Bob's picture

It's a death bed conversion to honesty!  Whaddya know.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:50 | 1594789 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

...AND, the XLF is soaring again today.

Go figure.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:52 | 1594795 gigeze787
gigeze787's picture

CNBC 0930A: Cramer hinting Carlos Slim might buy a stake in BAC..."even though they (BAC) don't think they need" a capital injection. Stock is up 5.5%...

Translation: BAC is desparate and broke, but is using Cramer to negotiate in public to prevent a bank run...the real word is out on the street... but they are still haggling about the price with Slim (or whoever).

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:54 | 1594805 Tunga
Tunga's picture

Please proceed to the lifeboats in an orderly fashion. There are plenty of boats for everyone. Unless of course you're locked in steerage. Ha Ha Ha. Ahem. Please enjoy the Music in the lounge while you wait for your number to be called and thanks for sailing with us on the HMS Titanic. Good morning.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:54 | 1594809 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Guy: Never tell anyone outside the family what you're thinking ever again.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:58 | 1594824 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Guy, this would not looked upon lightly when JPM buys BAC.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 09:58 | 1594825 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

That's what hubris do.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:08 | 1594854 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

More meaningless games by the criminal banking cartel.  The TBTF insolvent US banks can grade each other on what the books show but ignore what they hold in toxic NON PERFORMING Assets in their off balace sheet account.  The US finacial markets are a fraud and no amount of anyalist grading of this junk paper matters.  Waiting on the implosion so they can blame Bush and the Chinese when the real culprids are walking free on Wall Street and in the bowels of Chicago.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:12 | 1594870 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

the retarded rumor that JPM would buy Bank of America

Perhaps BAC thinks the only way to make this happen is to really piss Dimon off. More likely they are just trying to bring everyone else down to their level so that they don’t look so bad by comparison. When you think about it, that’s the easiest ploy to implement in the banking industry these days.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:15 | 1594883 Fazzie
Fazzie's picture

OT, I have a problem with this site recently. First my bookmark takes me to old news and even if I get to the site by clicking on a google search link it takes me to yesterdays news. I only got to this current story by clicking on an rss feed but I still cant access 8/24 news. Also clicking on the ZH icon on the home page or clicking the "home" link takes me to 8/23 , one day old news.

   Never had any trouble before for years until the new format, any ideas?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:28 | 1594946 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Clear your browser cache.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:33 | 1594962 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Breaking news:

RBS gets in on the whole 'let's make sure Bankers are enemy #1"

 

Hays has accidentally emailed to Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) staff the full pay details of 3,000 contractors at the bank.

The data may come as an embarrassment to RBS, even though the email is not its fault, because it shows the taxpayer-owned bank has been paying contractors up to £2,000 a day. The news comes less than a year after RBS announced it was cutting thousands of IT and back office jobs.

The email was sent by a Hays contractor in error to 800 full time RBS staff. Hays said that while pay rates were revealed, no banking data was included.

 

http://www.computerworlduk.com/news/it-business/3298971/hays-email-blund...

 

[via Hacker News]

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:59 | 1595656 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

OT --  thanks for the ticket to the Land of Ni.   sloooooowly digging my way thru it.   feel free to scrub note if you feel necessary.   don't want u runnin around 1/2 naked, might be kinky but m/b not smart.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!