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Bank Of America: "Santa Is Not Coming", Sees 50% Chance Of Drop To 950

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Forget the Santa rally, and pack up on parachutes. That is the advice of Bank of America's chief technician Mary Ann Bartels who in a note today writes: "Test of the October lows is underway – Santa is not coming - Last week the S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average which is the new level to watch – 1228. A failure to move above and hold the 50-day moving average confirms to us that we have already begun to enter the phase of testing the October lows near 1100-1074. This pattern is becoming eerily similar to 2008 into 2009. A base building process has been underway since August but we have maintained the belief that the lows still need to be tested and undercuts to 985- 935 are possible (50% probability) as part of this process. We expect a new cyclical bull market to emerge near 2Q12. Time and patience are needed." Which is to be expected: after all Bank of America, which is about to have a $4 handle once the Maginot Fortress of a near infinite number of bids at $5.00 is soaked up, will be the first to go the way of the dodo unless the market cracks and the Fed has political cover for QE3. Which is precisely what we have been saying for a year - namely that the market has to stop discounting (events such as QE3, 4 and so on) and allow itself to plunge in order to unleash all these favorable outcomes. And yet it refuses to as someone always start lifting the offer on every big dip in following with the now suicidal (for many banks) practices of BTFD. Oh well, when you have 24 year olds like this kid, who somehow made top billing in Forbes 30 under 30, defining market structure, we are long past overdue for the mother of all market crashes.

More from BAC:

Resistance to watch has moved down to the 50-day moving average at 1228 and the second level to watch is the 200-day moving average now at 1260. Failure to move above the 50-day moving average confirms a test of the lows is underway. Support remains 1100-1074 then 1000 through 935.

The irony is that the longer the market remains rangebound, the lower the stock of BAC will drop without explicit Fed backing.

As you make your bed...

 

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Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:32 | 1995051 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

and BAC is reluctant to go below $5.00, bouncing there, but artificially held up?

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:34 | 1995071 transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

Once the stock goes below 5 the margin requirements are different.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:44 | 1995090 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

A corresponding drop in BAC would put it below $4!

Dont go chasing waterfalls! - Sing it Bitchez!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:21 | 1995299 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

I beg to differ BAC. Santa IS coming. It's just that some of us asked him for a world without well BAC for one thing. Byee.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:07 | 1995515 LuKOsro
LuKOsro's picture

Just minutes before dropping below the 5$. Amazing timing Tyler.

 

http://journey-to-alpha.blogspot.com/2011/12/bank-of-america-breaks-5-maginot-line.html

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:39 | 1995096 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

This is BAC hopium for 950, otherwise BAC stock at $2 will stick out like a sore thumb if S&P is at 1200.

Good-bye BAC.  Nice kowin' ya!!

 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:44 | 1995122 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Clever guy

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:56 | 1995151 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

at 950 BAC may be worth -$25

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:36 | 1995084 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Methinks 5 is more psychological than 'artificially held up' but I suppose there is nothing that can surprise anymore.

BAC is out of ideas. They should go the Japan route and shell out some Au to their investors.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:09 | 1995198 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

BAC breaks $5 and my FAZ jumps .50

DIE YOU MOTHERFUCKER BAC, DIE!!!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:46 | 1995126 pkea
pkea's picture

Isn't the plan to kill BAC before SP will reach 950?

just because

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:32 | 1995052 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Coal for Xmas, bitchez

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:36 | 1995082 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Just give out stock in BAC to those you don't like.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:05 | 1995175 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

And puts for those you love.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:00 | 1995163 Animal Cracker
Animal Cracker's picture

That might be the most valuable thing in my stocking this year.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 19:19 | 1995925 trav7777
trav7777's picture

yeah the better coal MLPs have risen during this market

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:33 | 1995053 transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

That $5 price on BAC is a tough nut to crack. Only a matter of time.

- Only 950 on SAP? Sure, turn off the gravy fiat faucet and we'll see reality. Gotta love the yields on our fiat paper, unfkingbelievable.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:32 | 1995054 kito
kito's picture

funny, and this prediction coming from the grinch who stole the economy.............

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:33 | 1995065 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

All of your presents have been rehypothecated!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:49 | 1995138 pkea
pkea's picture

the real Grinch is CHaSE

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:50 | 1995142 kito
kito's picture

different heads, same body

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:32 | 1995058 Robslob
Robslob's picture

So now, because their stock has dropped 50%, they decide everyone elses should as well?

 

You got to love these guys...bankers, can't live with them...CAN live without them....!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:48 | 1995136 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I see Wall St bankers LOVE '50% chance of...'

Same as my standing odds-on 50% chance I'll shag Jennifer Love Hewitt by New Years Day....50% either it will, or it wont.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:52 | 1995147 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Dude, my prayers are with you to succeed. Everyone give a greenie to SheepDog-One and share the love.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:33 | 1995060 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

50% huh? My calcs say 50.62498%. May we round up?

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:41 | 1995101 Robslob
Robslob's picture

.62498%

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:34 | 1995378 TheHillrat
TheHillrat's picture

Shit, they can pay me to say that too. "Eh, 50-50 if you ask me". Just like the guy in CNBC the other day asking about market predictions. He said that that "market will go up, but some time in the future."

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:33 | 1995061 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

is 950 a good time to get back-in the market? Been sitting idle for over a year now. Some how I felt my money wasn't safe within the system.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:35 | 1995076 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It is if you want to invest in some monkeys fucking footballs.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:37 | 1995087 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

What ever gave you that idea? Tee Hee

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 20:38 | 1996115 Pythaes
Pythaes's picture

depends how long it takes to get there

 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:35 | 1995078 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

"Paging Jon Corzine, you're wanted at the prop desk, STAT!"

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:36 | 1995079 Magnix
Magnix's picture

GOOD! CRASH IT!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:38 | 1995093 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

AHHHH HA HA HA HAAAA! Hey wheres Robo? Trying to light his lump of coal on fire for heat?

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:45 | 1995429 machineh
machineh's picture

No luck -- his cat peed on the matches!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:41 | 1995102 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Hilarious that all these financial institutions who are supposed to be the smart financial guys are themselves imploding because they don't know what the fuck they are doing

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:41 | 1995103 San Diego Gold Bug
San Diego Gold Bug's picture

SomeChristmas cheer for all of the BAC holders!  Christmas Silver video 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:41 | 1995104 homer8043
homer8043's picture

One, there are bonsuses to be disbursed. Two, everyone likes to feel good at Christmas. We won't go down too far unless someone frontruns January!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:49 | 1995140 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Everyone around me is pissed off about Christmas.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:41 | 1995657 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Try attending a less radical Synagogue.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:41 | 1995105 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Where is Warren when you need him:)) ?

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:41 | 1995107 Tristan Ludlow
Tristan Ludlow's picture

Burn, baby, burn.  I am tired of waiting.  Let's get this party started!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:41 | 1995108 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

According to the Trader's Almanac, Santa's failure to show tends to precede bear markets.
http://chart.ly/uploads/qppp57k.png

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:08 | 1995196 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Well, considering the new phase of the bear market started in May, that's probably correct.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:42 | 1995109 chancee
chancee's picture

Tradebot market prop-job currently underway.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:43 | 1995114 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

...that "infinite number of bids at $5.00" on BAC is our taxes working productively / sarc

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:43 | 1995115 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I'd like to know how much money we have spent to keep the S&P above 1209 today, and BAC above $5?

Then again, perhaps for the sake of my sanity, I don't want to know.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:01 | 1995165 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Probably a little less than  $1 billion.  Not much in the larger scheme of things.  

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:44 | 1995116 bruce wayne
bruce wayne's picture

http://cumgranosalisdossetto.blogspot.com/2011/12/revolution-in-china.html

Hard for Santa to show up as Europe and China both burn.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:46 | 1995128 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Boo hoo hoo, we're fallin, so everything else will fall too, then we wont look so bad and we'll get free money from Bennie'.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:49 | 1995139 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

This marketing is screaming plunge. That or big Ben miracle. I wonder if S&P would wait until market close end of week.

Talk about a lump of coal.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:52 | 1995145 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And even WITH some 'Ben Miracle'....whats that buy these days, a couple weeks at MOST?

And worst case, breaks the camels back and commodities go apeshit vertical while leaving a paper tsunami behind? 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:52 | 1995143 vegas
vegas's picture

Well, if I was one of the guys in the research dept., I'd be more worried about my job than the S&P500 being at 900. Don't look now fellas, but your 401K is about to go room temperature. Death spiral in BAC common in 4....3....

From another angle, this is the firm that is bullish on eurchf and gold. Shit, those 2 pairs haven't done squat since that was made public. I know you guys want and need to beat Stolper over at Vampire Squid, but if you could stop with the market calls and get your fucking bank in order we all would appreciate it.

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 15:52 | 1995148 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

It's clearly being kept at $5 and is not "allowed" to go lower.

So $5 a share is the new Zero value of a stock.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:04 | 1995174 Cadavre
Cadavre's picture

My S&P Financials bear ETFs got condensed to one from four just a few months back. Have a most queasy sense they be splitting `em back up (again) - the CBOE must be going crazy with the incessant un-split and re-split adjustments of the call strike print for those muthas!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:43 | 1995664 DeadFinks
DeadFinks's picture

Too big to be 0?

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:03 | 1995172 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

 

Thank the lord for Mary Ann's technical analysis. 

For a second there I was unable to escape the rose tinted groupthink spectacles but now I see it clear as day, that everything's still utterly fucked.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:06 | 1995185 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Don't be a pessimist you're in time for the ramp-up...

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:24 | 1995326 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

 

Sure, all we need is a couple more EU skype summits, since S&P downgrades are considered to be bullish now.

I was watching Bloomberg this morning in UK and someone's reply when asked whether there was going to be a year-end rally was that "the market is tired and the news out of the Eurozone aren't bad enough, in order to justify an armageddon-like capitulation"

Ergo don't discount an algo pump ramp towards the finish line from these mthrfckers.

Swear.to.god

 

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:06 | 1995176 Zola
Zola's picture

That list Tyler is a joke ... Aprils fool ?? Who are these people lol...

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:06 | 1995187 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

BAC 4 print!!!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:07 | 1995188 friedmators
friedmators's picture

4.99 on my charts...did we break it?

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:07 | 1995193 BlackingOut
BlackingOut's picture

Indeed we did.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:08 | 1995195 Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

Yes, we can!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:09 | 1995200 fuu
fuu's picture

4.97...

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:27 | 1995337 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

4.95 Maginot, lowest 4.93

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:09 | 1995197 kamikade
kamikade's picture

BOOM

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:20 | 1995292 Odin
Odin's picture

Post the Bear Calvary Tyler!!!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:33 | 1995377 devo
devo's picture

I'd like to see gold decouple from stocks/dollars before getting excited about this drop.

Good buying opportunity I guess...

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 16:52 | 1995460 machineh
machineh's picture

No Christmas for B of A, that's for sure!

After what happened to MF Global (i.e., its stock crash warned of its imminent failure), how can anyone place funds with Merrill Lynch, when its corporate parent is a $4 stock?

Personally, I'd like a trading account at the Fed Open Market Desk -- so's I could ring Brian Sack and command, 'OPEN THE POD BAY DOOR, BRIAN -- AND EJECT THE TREASURIES!'

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:10 | 1995528 g speed
g speed's picture

24 year olds ---Vlad  Vlad hummm where have I heard that name before-- Ah yes I remember now -- Vlad III  

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:24 | 1995581 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Ho Ho Hoes

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:27 | 1995595 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

the first "tbtf" to bite the dust - will be worth much more broken-up than the whole - rumors been out there for awhile

jmo

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:43 | 1995665 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Another chart reader who can't read charts. How interesting. The S&P 500 is in an upward, bull, trading channel, as shown clearly on her chart. The fifty day moving average is useless.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 17:44 | 1995667 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Actual chance of a drop to 950; less than 3%. Good thing she gets a salary and doesn't depend on trading like I do.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 18:01 | 1995726 mr1963
mr1963's picture

Anyone else get a chill up your spine reading the 30 under 30 bios? Holly crap batman,a bunch of 20 somethings turn to tank the global economy and walk away with a shitpot full of cash to do it. Every other age group got it's chance...

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 21:18 | 1996187 Cadavre
Cadavre's picture

Yep - by cracky - that "cash" - dat be be mighty valuable stuff - yes-sir-eee - not quit unobtainium - but still when weze consider all that has to be done to harvest it (almost as hard as being a dental floss farmer) First ya got ta till the fields - then you put little pennies in the ground - water and fed `em and let `em germinate - then sit back and let da Keynesian Miracle do da rest - and fore ya know itz - dollar bills be falling off yore field of wet dreams money trees like ticks off a dead dawg!

It be manna from heavan!

Yep - that "cash" stuff shore be worth lotz of money someday fore shore by crackee!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 19:14 | 1995907 Cadavre
Cadavre's picture

Bank Of America: "Santa Is Not Coming", Sees 50% Chance Of Drop To 950

.. and therefore a 100% chance of

anyone  .. anyone ..

.. a drop to 400 ,,,

anyone  .. anyone ..

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 19:21 | 1995929 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

bail us out (again) or we tell the puppy the truth

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 19:47 | 1996012 chump666
chump666's picture

"We can always strive to improve [the market], make it more efficient, and make the world a flatter place." from the Forbes article.

You have got to be f*cking kidding me???

Age old mantra...Time sell when you hear 'shoe shine' boys (like that butnut) give advice and tell us that everything is A OK

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 19:48 | 1996014 chump666
chump666's picture

oh we will flatline to 2012.  Then the sell/volatlity etc

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 19:48 | 1996015 chump666
chump666's picture

oh we will flatline to 2012.  Then the sell/volatility etc

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 20:03 | 1996045 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

We getting our market timing from BAC now?  Cool.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 20:32 | 1996096 cheesewizz
cheesewizz's picture

picked up a few shares long BAC, I see short covering and a triple bottom in the making, also closed my short in SLV, Now that was a trade....

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 21:49 | 1996229 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Haven't you herd? The US market is "decoupling" from all the horrid problems across the pond. Stocks are cheap Bitchez.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwEJReBICIU&feature=related

  

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 22:23 | 1996303 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Let's not foget about Chitibank.. that turd is sinking fast...down 50% this Yr.

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 22:50 | 1996378 Artful Dodger
Artful Dodger's picture

Wow - if everyone under 30 had a career like the Forbes' 30 Under 30... absolutely nothing of utility or import would get done. Celebrate these junior kleptocapitalists!

Mon, 12/19/2011 - 23:11 | 1996414 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

The 30 under 30 list was the scariest thing I've read in a long time.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 01:16 | 1996770 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

Last time it was citi before the october rally....with their VIX triangle officially worried...now its BAC....you decide whats coming

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 08:53 | 1997137 dcb
dcb's picture

there are times you guys suck, and in general as traders you do. if you follow tklt like I do you see it's at the top of the channel, so you should mpst likely start goinglong around here for at least a bit. it's always bearish, no matter what the c=charts are saying and where. you were bearish at 660 on the s and P. I think you need to add some folks who may perhaps support your ideology, have better trading skills. Plus with repo 105 which we all know you should consuider that in jan it ends for a new quarter. look at the money of october when it ended. which I had mentioned here, then shorted at end of month. todays was a good examole as europ is up 1 plus percent, maybe it doesn't hold, but please.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 08:57 | 1997145 dcb
dcb's picture

you also don't seem to be able to think like an algo program. sell when daily macd is up. laywer in lower when going down. not rocket science

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 09:00 | 1997152 dcb
dcb's picture

on almost any big ass down day like yestarday you can almost always buy at the close for a quick gain. watch the last 10 minites of the day, when you see a little pop. the big boys are gaming the futures market. it's why I have spent week attempting to learn the formulas for where the market opens.

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