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Bank Of America: "Santa Is Not Coming", Sees 50% Chance Of Drop To 950
Forget the Santa rally, and pack up on parachutes. That is the advice of Bank of America's chief technician Mary Ann Bartels who in a note today writes: "Test of the October lows is underway – Santa is not coming - Last week the S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average which is the new level to watch – 1228. A failure to move above and hold the 50-day moving average confirms to us that we have already begun to enter the phase of testing the October lows near 1100-1074. This pattern is becoming eerily similar to 2008 into 2009. A base building process has been underway since August but we have maintained the belief that the lows still need to be tested and undercuts to 985- 935 are possible (50% probability) as part of this process. We expect a new cyclical bull market to emerge near 2Q12. Time and patience are needed." Which is to be expected: after all Bank of America, which is about to have a $4 handle once the Maginot Fortress of a near infinite number of bids at $5.00 is soaked up, will be the first to go the way of the dodo unless the market cracks and the Fed has political cover for QE3. Which is precisely what we have been saying for a year - namely that the market has to stop discounting (events such as QE3, 4 and so on) and allow itself to plunge in order to unleash all these favorable outcomes. And yet it refuses to as someone always start lifting the offer on every big dip in following with the now suicidal (for many banks) practices of BTFD. Oh well, when you have 24 year olds like this kid, who somehow made top billing in Forbes 30 under 30, defining market structure, we are long past overdue for the mother of all market crashes.
More from BAC:
Resistance to watch has moved down to the 50-day moving average at 1228 and the second level to watch is the 200-day moving average now at 1260. Failure to move above the 50-day moving average confirms a test of the lows is underway. Support remains 1100-1074 then 1000 through 935.
The irony is that the longer the market remains rangebound, the lower the stock of BAC will drop without explicit Fed backing.
As you make your bed...
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and BAC is reluctant to go below $5.00, bouncing there, but artificially held up?
Once the stock goes below 5 the margin requirements are different.
A corresponding drop in BAC would put it below $4!
Dont go chasing waterfalls! - Sing it Bitchez!
I beg to differ BAC. Santa IS coming. It's just that some of us asked him for a world without well BAC for one thing. Byee.
Just minutes before dropping below the 5$. Amazing timing Tyler.
http://journey-to-alpha.blogspot.com/2011/12/bank-of-america-breaks-5-maginot-line.html
This is BAC hopium for 950, otherwise BAC stock at $2 will stick out like a sore thumb if S&P is at 1200.
Good-bye BAC. Nice kowin' ya!!
Clever guy
at 950 BAC may be worth -$25
Methinks 5 is more psychological than 'artificially held up' but I suppose there is nothing that can surprise anymore.
BAC is out of ideas. They should go the Japan route and shell out some Au to their investors.
BAC breaks $5 and my FAZ jumps .50
DIE YOU MOTHERFUCKER BAC, DIE!!!
Isn't the plan to kill BAC before SP will reach 950?
just because
Coal for Xmas, bitchez
Just give out stock in BAC to those you don't like.
And puts for those you love.
That might be the most valuable thing in my stocking this year.
yeah the better coal MLPs have risen during this market
That $5 price on BAC is a tough nut to crack. Only a matter of time.
- Only 950 on SAP? Sure, turn off the gravy fiat faucet and we'll see reality. Gotta love the yields on our fiat paper, unfkingbelievable.
funny, and this prediction coming from the grinch who stole the economy.............
All of your presents have been rehypothecated!
the real Grinch is CHaSE
different heads, same body
So now, because their stock has dropped 50%, they decide everyone elses should as well?
You got to love these guys...bankers, can't live with them...CAN live without them....!
I see Wall St bankers LOVE '50% chance of...'
Same as my standing odds-on 50% chance I'll shag Jennifer Love Hewitt by New Years Day....50% either it will, or it wont.
Dude, my prayers are with you to succeed. Everyone give a greenie to SheepDog-One and share the love.
50% huh? My calcs say 50.62498%. May we round up?
+ .62498%
Shit, they can pay me to say that too. "Eh, 50-50 if you ask me". Just like the guy in CNBC the other day asking about market predictions. He said that that "market will go up, but some time in the future."
is 950 a good time to get back-in the market? Been sitting idle for over a year now. Some how I felt my money wasn't safe within the system.
It is if you want to invest in some monkeys fucking footballs.
What ever gave you that idea? Tee Hee
depends how long it takes to get there
"Paging Jon Corzine, you're wanted at the prop desk, STAT!"
GOOD! CRASH IT!
AHHHH HA HA HA HAAAA! Hey wheres Robo? Trying to light his lump of coal on fire for heat?
No luck -- his cat peed on the matches!
Hilarious that all these financial institutions who are supposed to be the smart financial guys are themselves imploding because they don't know what the fuck they are doing
SomeChristmas cheer for all of the BAC holders! Christmas Silver video
One, there are bonsuses to be disbursed. Two, everyone likes to feel good at Christmas. We won't go down too far unless someone frontruns January!
Everyone around me is pissed off about Christmas.
Try attending a less radical Synagogue.
Where is Warren when you need him:)) ?
Burn, baby, burn. I am tired of waiting. Let's get this party started!
According to the Trader's Almanac, Santa's failure to show tends to precede bear markets.
http://chart.ly/uploads/qppp57k.png
Well, considering the new phase of the bear market started in May, that's probably correct.
Tradebot market prop-job currently underway.
...that "infinite number of bids at $5.00" on BAC is our taxes working productively / sarc
I'd like to know how much money we have spent to keep the S&P above 1209 today, and BAC above $5?
Then again, perhaps for the sake of my sanity, I don't want to know.
Probably a little less than $1 billion. Not much in the larger scheme of things.
http://cumgranosalisdossetto.blogspot.com/2011/12/revolution-in-china.html
Hard for Santa to show up as Europe and China both burn.
'Boo hoo hoo, we're fallin, so everything else will fall too, then we wont look so bad and we'll get free money from Bennie'.
This marketing is screaming plunge. That or big Ben miracle. I wonder if S&P would wait until market close end of week.
Talk about a lump of coal.
And even WITH some 'Ben Miracle'....whats that buy these days, a couple weeks at MOST?
And worst case, breaks the camels back and commodities go apeshit vertical while leaving a paper tsunami behind?
Well, if I was one of the guys in the research dept., I'd be more worried about my job than the S&P500 being at 900. Don't look now fellas, but your 401K is about to go room temperature. Death spiral in BAC common in 4....3....
From another angle, this is the firm that is bullish on eurchf and gold. Shit, those 2 pairs haven't done squat since that was made public. I know you guys want and need to beat Stolper over at Vampire Squid, but if you could stop with the market calls and get your fucking bank in order we all would appreciate it.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
It's clearly being kept at $5 and is not "allowed" to go lower.
So $5 a share is the new Zero value of a stock.
My S&P Financials bear ETFs got condensed to one from four just a few months back. Have a most queasy sense they be splitting `em back up (again) - the CBOE must be going crazy with the incessant un-split and re-split adjustments of the call strike print for those muthas!
Too big to be 0?
Thank the lord for Mary Ann's technical analysis.
For a second there I was unable to escape the rose tinted groupthink spectacles but now I see it clear as day, that everything's still utterly fucked.
Don't be a pessimist you're in time for the ramp-up...
Sure, all we need is a couple more EU skype summits, since S&P downgrades are considered to be bullish now.
I was watching Bloomberg this morning in UK and someone's reply when asked whether there was going to be a year-end rally was that "the market is tired and the news out of the Eurozone aren't bad enough, in order to justify an armageddon-like capitulation"
Ergo don't discount an algo pump ramp towards the finish line from these mthrfckers.
Swear.to.god
That list Tyler is a joke ... Aprils fool ?? Who are these people lol...
BAC 4 print!!!
4.99 on my charts...did we break it?
Indeed we did.
Yes, we can!
4.97...
4.95 Maginot, lowest 4.93
BOOM
Post the Bear Calvary Tyler!!!
I'd like to see gold decouple from stocks/dollars before getting excited about this drop.
Good buying opportunity I guess...
No Christmas for B of A, that's for sure!
After what happened to MF Global (i.e., its stock crash warned of its imminent failure), how can anyone place funds with Merrill Lynch, when its corporate parent is a $4 stock?
Personally, I'd like a trading account at the Fed Open Market Desk -- so's I could ring Brian Sack and command, 'OPEN THE POD BAY DOOR, BRIAN -- AND EJECT THE TREASURIES!'
24 year olds ---Vlad Vlad hummm where have I heard that name before-- Ah yes I remember now -- Vlad III
Ho Ho Hoes
the first "tbtf" to bite the dust - will be worth much more broken-up than the whole - rumors been out there for awhile
jmo
Another chart reader who can't read charts. How interesting. The S&P 500 is in an upward, bull, trading channel, as shown clearly on her chart. The fifty day moving average is useless.
Actual chance of a drop to 950; less than 3%. Good thing she gets a salary and doesn't depend on trading like I do.
Anyone else get a chill up your spine reading the 30 under 30 bios? Holly crap batman,a bunch of 20 somethings turn to tank the global economy and walk away with a shitpot full of cash to do it. Every other age group got it's chance...
Yep - by cracky - that "cash" - dat be be mighty valuable stuff - yes-sir-eee - not quit unobtainium - but still when weze consider all that has to be done to harvest it (almost as hard as being a dental floss farmer) First ya got ta till the fields - then you put little pennies in the ground - water and fed `em and let `em germinate - then sit back and let da Keynesian Miracle do da rest - and fore ya know itz - dollar bills be falling off yore field of wet dreams money trees like ticks off a dead dawg!
It be manna from heavan!
Yep - that "cash" stuff shore be worth lotz of money someday fore shore by crackee!
Bank Of America: "Santa Is Not Coming", Sees 50% Chance Of Drop To 950
.. and therefore a 100% chance of
anyone .. anyone ..
.. a drop to 400 ,,,
anyone .. anyone ..
bail us out (again) or we tell the puppy the truth
"We can always strive to improve [the market], make it more efficient, and make the world a flatter place." from the Forbes article.
You have got to be f*cking kidding me???
Age old mantra...Time sell when you hear 'shoe shine' boys (like that butnut) give advice and tell us that everything is A OK
oh we will flatline to 2012. Then the sell/volatlity etc
oh we will flatline to 2012. Then the sell/volatility etc
We getting our market timing from BAC now? Cool.
picked up a few shares long BAC, I see short covering and a triple bottom in the making, also closed my short in SLV, Now that was a trade....
Haven't you herd? The US market is "decoupling" from all the horrid problems across the pond. Stocks are cheap Bitchez.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwEJReBICIU&feature=related
Let's not foget about Chitibank.. that turd is sinking fast...down 50% this Yr.
Wow - if everyone under 30 had a career like the Forbes' 30 Under 30... absolutely nothing of utility or import would get done. Celebrate these junior kleptocapitalists!
The 30 under 30 list was the scariest thing I've read in a long time.
Last time it was citi before the october rally....with their VIX triangle officially worried...now its BAC....you decide whats coming
there are times you guys suck, and in general as traders you do. if you follow tklt like I do you see it's at the top of the channel, so you should mpst likely start goinglong around here for at least a bit. it's always bearish, no matter what the c=charts are saying and where. you were bearish at 660 on the s and P. I think you need to add some folks who may perhaps support your ideology, have better trading skills. Plus with repo 105 which we all know you should consuider that in jan it ends for a new quarter. look at the money of october when it ended. which I had mentioned here, then shorted at end of month. todays was a good examole as europ is up 1 plus percent, maybe it doesn't hold, but please.
you also don't seem to be able to think like an algo program. sell when daily macd is up. laywer in lower when going down. not rocket science
on almost any big ass down day like yestarday you can almost always buy at the close for a quick gain. watch the last 10 minites of the day, when you see a little pop. the big boys are gaming the futures market. it's why I have spent week attempting to learn the formulas for where the market opens.