Bank Of America: "Santa Is Not Coming", Sees 50% Chance Of Drop To 950

Tyler Durden's picture

Forget the Santa rally, and pack up on parachutes. That is the advice of Bank of America's chief technician Mary Ann Bartels who in a note today writes: "Test of the October lows is underway – Santa is not coming - Last week the S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average which is the new level to watch – 1228. A failure to move above and hold the 50-day moving average confirms to us that we have already begun to enter the phase of testing the October lows near 1100-1074. This pattern is becoming eerily similar to 2008 into 2009. A base building process has been underway since August but we have maintained the belief that the lows still need to be tested and undercuts to 985- 935 are possible (50% probability) as part of this process. We expect a new cyclical bull market to emerge near 2Q12. Time and patience are needed." Which is to be expected: after all Bank of America, which is about to have a $4 handle once the Maginot Fortress of a near infinite number of bids at $5.00 is soaked up, will be the first to go the way of the dodo unless the market cracks and the Fed has political cover for QE3. Which is precisely what we have been saying for a year - namely that the market has to stop discounting (events such as QE3, 4 and so on) and allow itself to plunge in order to unleash all these favorable outcomes. And yet it refuses to as someone always start lifting the offer on every big dip in following with the now suicidal (for many banks) practices of BTFD. Oh well, when you have 24 year olds like this kid, who somehow made top billing in Forbes 30 under 30, defining market structure, we are long past overdue for the mother of all market crashes.

More from BAC:

Resistance to watch has moved down to the 50-day moving average at 1228 and the second level to watch is the 200-day moving average now at 1260. Failure to move above the 50-day moving average confirms a test of the lows is underway. Support remains 1100-1074 then 1000 through 935.

The irony is that the longer the market remains rangebound, the lower the stock of BAC will drop without explicit Fed backing.

As you make your bed...

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Hippocratic Oaf's picture

and BAC is reluctant to go below $5.00, bouncing there, but artificially held up?

transaccountin's picture

Once the stock goes below 5 the margin requirements are different.

Pladizow's picture

A corresponding drop in BAC would put it below $4!

Dont go chasing waterfalls! - Sing it Bitchez!

Gief Gold Plox's picture

I beg to differ BAC. Santa IS coming. It's just that some of us asked him for a world without well BAC for one thing. Byee.

nope-1004's picture

This is BAC hopium for 950, otherwise BAC stock at $2 will stick out like a sore thumb if S&P is at 1200.

Good-bye BAC.  Nice kowin' ya!!

 

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Methinks 5 is more psychological than 'artificially held up' but I suppose there is nothing that can surprise anymore.

BAC is out of ideas. They should go the Japan route and shell out some Au to their investors.

Hippocratic Oaf's picture

BAC breaks $5 and my FAZ jumps .50

DIE YOU MOTHERFUCKER BAC, DIE!!!

pkea's picture

Isn't the plan to kill BAC before SP will reach 950?

just because

trav7777's picture

Coal for Xmas, bitchez

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Just give out stock in BAC to those you don't like.

Animal Cracker's picture

That might be the most valuable thing in my stocking this year.

trav7777's picture

yeah the better coal MLPs have risen during this market

transaccountin's picture

That $5 price on BAC is a tough nut to crack. Only a matter of time.

- Only 950 on SAP? Sure, turn off the gravy fiat faucet and we'll see reality. Gotta love the yields on our fiat paper, unfkingbelievable.

kito's picture

funny, and this prediction coming from the grinch who stole the economy.............

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

All of your presents have been rehypothecated!

pkea's picture

the real Grinch is CHaSE

kito's picture

different heads, same body

Robslob's picture

So now, because their stock has dropped 50%, they decide everyone elses should as well?

 

You got to love these guys...bankers, can't live with them...CAN live without them....!

SheepDog-One's picture

I see Wall St bankers LOVE '50% chance of...'

Same as my standing odds-on 50% chance I'll shag Jennifer Love Hewitt by New Years Day....50% either it will, or it wont.

dracos_ghost's picture

Dude, my prayers are with you to succeed. Everyone give a greenie to SheepDog-One and share the love.

vast-dom's picture

50% huh? My calcs say 50.62498%. May we round up?

TheHillrat's picture

Shit, they can pay me to say that too. "Eh, 50-50 if you ask me". Just like the guy in CNBC the other day asking about market predictions. He said that that "market will go up, but some time in the future."

f16hoser's picture

is 950 a good time to get back-in the market? Been sitting idle for over a year now. Some how I felt my money wasn't safe within the system.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It is if you want to invest in some monkeys fucking footballs.

f16hoser's picture

What ever gave you that idea? Tee Hee

Pythaes's picture

depends how long it takes to get there

 

f16hoser's picture

"Paging Jon Corzine, you're wanted at the prop desk, STAT!"

Magnix's picture

GOOD! CRASH IT!

SheepDog-One's picture

AHHHH HA HA HA HAAAA! Hey wheres Robo? Trying to light his lump of coal on fire for heat?

machineh's picture

No luck -- his cat peed on the matches!

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Hilarious that all these financial institutions who are supposed to be the smart financial guys are themselves imploding because they don't know what the fuck they are doing

San Diego Gold Bug's picture

SomeChristmas cheer for all of the BAC holders!  Christmas Silver video 

homer8043's picture

One, there are bonsuses to be disbursed. Two, everyone likes to feel good at Christmas. We won't go down too far unless someone frontruns January!

SheepDog-One's picture

Everyone around me is pissed off about Christmas.

SAT 800's picture

Try attending a less radical Synagogue.

TradingJoe's picture

Where is Warren when you need him:)) ?

Tristan Ludlow's picture

Burn, baby, burn.  I am tired of waiting.  Let's get this party started!

Cult_of_Reason's picture

According to the Trader's Almanac, Santa's failure to show tends to precede bear markets.
http://chart.ly/uploads/qppp57k.png

WonderDawg's picture

Well, considering the new phase of the bear market started in May, that's probably correct.

chancee's picture

Tradebot market prop-job currently underway.

slaughterer's picture

...that "infinite number of bids at $5.00" on BAC is our taxes working productively / sarc

Tsar Pointless's picture

I'd like to know how much money we have spent to keep the S&P above 1209 today, and BAC above $5?

Then again, perhaps for the sake of my sanity, I don't want to know.

slaughterer's picture

Probably a little less than  $1 billion.  Not much in the larger scheme of things.  

SheepDog-One's picture

'Boo hoo hoo, we're fallin, so everything else will fall too, then we wont look so bad and we'll get free money from Bennie'.