As Bankia Bailout Costs Grow Exponentially, Is A Stealth Bank Run Taking Place... And What Happens To Ronaldo?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Note the following sequence of events, bolded numbers, and dates:

  • Bank Of Spain Formally Nationalizes Bankia, Says Insolvent Bank Is "Solvent", Adds There Is No Cause For Concern, Zero Hedge, May 9
  • Spain is taking over Bankia by converting its 4.5 billion euros of preferred shares in the group’s parent company into ordinary shares, BusinessWeek, May 21
  • Spain said on Wednesday its rescue of problem lender Bankia would cost at least 9 billion euros ($11 billion), as the government tries to clean up a banking system that threatens  to drag the country deeper into the euro zone crisis, Reuters, May 23   
  • Bankia SA will have to ask the Spanish government for more than 15 billion euros as part of its effort to restore its financial health, state-owned news agency EFE reported Thursday, citing financial sources, Dow Jones, May 24

Hopefully we aren't the only ones to notice how the bailout cost has oddly doubled almost on a daily basis.

Which is to be expected: After all, recall that The Bankia group, was formed in late 2010 following a merger of seven insolvent savings banks led by Caja Madrid, which has the most exposure to Spanish real estate among the nation’s banks. The pro forma company then, under the guise of newfound solvency, turned to the stock market to raise capital after parking its worst real estate assets in the parent company. This worked for just over a year. Then Bankia itself blew up.

Essentially, Spain tried to do what the US did - consolidate a bunch of insolvent companies with some deposits, into a larger one - a desperate attempt to create a TBTF - diluting the bad assets among the constituent subsidiaries.

The problem, however, is that the impaired liabilities continued growing as the Spanish housing sector has not stopped deteriorating and in fact has become increasingly more distressed. At the same time, occasional deposit runs have exhausted the liability side of the bank, causing company cash to fly out of the door, and subsequently impairing equity forcing the sovereign to pump ever more money into this lost cause.

This, to anyone who has even rudimentary understanding of finance, is a Vicious Cash Outflow Cycle 101, where capital outflows beget more capital outflows, unless a credible backstop steps in and restores confidence. Otherwise bank runs not only accelerate but they spread to all even solvent entities.

Sadly, what the Spanish government and the Bank of Spain have demonstrated, is that despite all the rhetoric, capital flight has not only stopped, it is accelerating.

Yes: the bank run is on, and is getting worse, despite what the press may be promising. Proof - just look at the bullets above. It is a virtual certainty that in the next few days we will see total Bankia "bailout costs" rise more and more, until the truth becomes self-evident to even the most financially unsophisticated soon to be ex-depositor. Sadly, we are also fairly confident this is not limited to Bankia as more of the harebrained Cajas consolidation schemes from 2010 blow up one by one.

Yet we don't want to leave off on a pessimistic note. Instead, we go back to our post from July 28, in which we reported on something rather amusing. To wit:

We were pretty much speechless when we read this - it sure puts guarantees by Noyer, Trichet and all the other bureaumonkeys that the ECB does not accept just any collateral in perspective. From Presseurop.eu: "The most expensive footballer in history may now be used to guarantee the solvency of a Spanish bank. “Ronaldo in the bailout fund,” headlines Süddeutsche Zeitung. The daily reports that the Bankia group of savings banks, which financed Real Madrid’s acquisition of the Portuguese player, is now seeking to borrow funds from the European Central Bank. In response to the ECB’s demand for guarantees, Bankia are putting up… Ronaldo and the Brazilian Kaka, who also plays for the Madrid football club. In 2009, Real borrowed 76.5 million euros to pay transfer fees of 100 millions euros to Manchester United, and 60 million to Milan AC."

“Could we see a situation in which the ECB seizes one of the players?“ wonders the Munich daily. “In theory, it is possible. Bankia would first have to become insolvent. Thereafter, Real would have to default on its loans, which are secured by advertising and television revenues. It goes without saying that Real Madrid is in debt to the tune of several million euros. However, in Spain football clubs have a history of obtaining publicly funded bailouts — just like the country’s banks.”

This is beyond even The Onion's (and even Zero Hedge's) level of sarcasm.

 

There is nothing that can be added to this insanity. Furthermore, the fact that the "collateral" most likely has a virulent case of Paris Hiltonitis which will infect all the other worthless collateral, likely leading to the latest and greatest reality TV show, only adds to the complete farce that the global ponzi scheme has now become.

So... Is it time for Bankia to claim its "collateral" (even if as we morbidly predicted, and were right again, it infected all of Bankia's other collateral with "Hiltonitis")? Or has Cristiano Ronaldo also been rehypothecated on several other occasions, and not a single bank has any idea who has actual claim to the "Ronaldo" title?

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Thu, 05/24/2012 - 18:49 | 2460592 slaughterer
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Ronaldo was Corzined a long time ago.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 18:57 | 2460617 dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

Ronaldo is a diving queen. In a typical game b/t Barcelona and Real Madrid, these guys would spend half of time rolling on the ground moaning about a fake injury and asking referee for a penalty kick of some kind.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:06 | 2460632 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Fuck Ronaldo.  The real problem is that spanish do not trust their banks,and know their leaders to be liars. That is why they are pulling out money.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:07 | 2460643 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Tyler you need to stop scaring people out of stocks. They are for the long term. Sure they may dip a little lower, but dip buyers have been generously rewarded since 2009.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:19 | 2460682 Banksters
Banksters's picture

I see you are still holding Nikkei 40k.  Well played, turd.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:28 | 2460704 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Look at the trend in the markets. It has been up since early 2009. It's dipped, but if your not in, you might miss out on that big rally. High beta stocks and low grade bonds. The Fed has clearly been looking out for risk takers while conservative investors have been punished.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:33 | 2460712 fuu
fuu's picture

"but if your not in, you might miss out"

Now where have I heard that before?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 21:56 | 2461059 Lazlo Toth
Lazlo Toth's picture

Vegas?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 22:36 | 2461123 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

It's as if banks R infected with a monetary form of Necrotic Fasciitis.  Lots of branches 2 be amputated I bet.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:35 | 2460718 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

Hey look everybody!

It's Mini MDB!

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 20:51 | 2460912 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

It's not Mini MDB, RobotTrader has reincarnated into his favorite creature, The MomoMonkey....

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:36 | 2460721 Cdad
Cdad's picture

So...are you a composite tweeter, some sort of Ben Bernanke/Jamie Dimon/Jim Cramer amalgam?  And if you think Tyler is just scaring people out of stocks, why wouldn't you go to one of 1,000 other information sources that will tell you to buy stawks?  Why wouldn't you just take one of thousands of Wall Street approved blue pills out there?

Seriously...who are you...and just how stupid are you [use IQ scale to respond]?  

Thanks. 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:47 | 2460753 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Ay carumba!!!!!

Oh, wait.   They say that in Mexico.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 20:06 | 2460799 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

Looks like three suckers took the bait faster than a starved piranha.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 21:09 | 2460923 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

I bet Spanish Harlem is a place to avoid over there.  I'd bank Jim Quinn would mightily concur.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 21:23 | 2460989 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

you mean rotisserieJim?

is he done, yet? [ just set him and forget him?]

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:52 | 2460769 Frastric
Frastric's picture

Bullshit! Stocks have risen on the back of devalued currencies! If Dow starts at 5000, US dollar is at 100. If Dow goes to 20000 and US dollar to 50. Sure DOW has doubled, but the currency has lost halve its value. Which means all in all your real value has NOT changed. It may not be as extreme as that but in a bigger time frame stock value has barely increased over the last 100 years.

DOW started at 30 in 1890 something, and averaged 10000 in the noughties. Over the same period the dollar devalued by 98%. ACTUAL increase of the DOW: 667% and not the 33333% people so often tout.

Perhaps you haven't noticed how money buys you less these days! Why do you think all the old people say that a few bucks was a lot of money many dozens of years ago! Because it was a lot of money! Only the sheeple didn't notice because wages just kept up.

 

 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 20:02 | 2460792 The Big Ching-aso
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This shit keeps up & I expect Damien Thorn 2 show up at any moment.  What an omen that'd make.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 20:07 | 2460801 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

Make that 4 suckers now.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 20:12 | 2460816 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Aren't you tired of sucking?

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 00:01 | 2461289 Born-Again Bankster
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I actually give the FED credit for doing it so quietly over the years.  The problem is, they don't understand the power and speed of the exponential growth function as it relates to debt when you no longer have the ability to lower interest rates.  I can hear Bernanke now, "But in the textbooks this shit was supposed to work".   Damn you, Grandpa, for reading me Keynes as a child....DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaaaaMNNNN YOU!!!!

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 20:55 | 2460924 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

A giant, worldwide reset is coming folks.  Get into something safe and hang on for the ride.  Gold is the glue holding the world together at this point.  When the dust from the ashes of worthless currencies settles, central banks will still be sitting there with the gold they've been accumulating since '71 always knowing this day would come.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 21:04 | 2460942 The Big Ching-aso
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I don't know why, but I think I've heard this sorta thing on ZH before.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 22:20 | 2461092 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

I'm a Bullfighter, or rather a Bullshit fighter, stop the B/S about the stock market. The illusion of "Free Markets" is a joke. Anyone stupid enough to play this market would do better in a casino. At least there they'll liquor you up before they financially rape you.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:26 | 2460638 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

Bank runs and hyperinflation are both caused by a lack of confidence, not a lack of currency. The direct action will be to boldly lie and soothe.  The ancillary action will be quiet injections of currency (do they really care if it's 10 billion or 30 billion?) from CBs.  It will be the primary concern of these banks and governments to get you to breathe in the ether.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:42 | 2460742 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Ah...not thanks on the ether.  

[Cdad holding his breath indefinitely] 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 20:20 | 2460832 The Big Ching-aso
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Hey, Ronaldo.   Break a leg.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 02:00 | 2461425 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

Rehypothecated Ronaldo.  I wonder what a broken leg would do balance sheets.  Wow, imagine an injury event in a soccer game causing cascades of insolvency through international financial institutions... talk about a black swan.  Hell, that's so absurd that it's probably inevitable.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 23:50 | 2461259 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Its good to be carbon neutral...

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 00:01 | 2461284 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Deleted due to this information will be revealed to humanity at a later date...

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 23:39 | 2461226 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

Ronaldo can dive, but nobody, NOBODY, could dive like Maradonna, the god of diving.  The refs used to give red cards to guys that were 20 meters away just to acknowledge his greatness.  Advertisers paid extra to run right after a Maradonna dive, because TV viewers couldn't unglue their eyes from the TV after such spectacular writhing and shrieks of pain.  Legend.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:03 | 2460625 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Kaka about sums it up nicely, I think.  In English the word has a slightly different meaning but still appropriate.  ECB and Kaka in the same sentence - yeah that works for me. 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 20:32 | 2460855 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Hey we could put up Jennifer Lopez' booty as collateral against another form of inflation.

 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 18:51 | 2460594 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Muevate, no es nada

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 18:50 | 2460595 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Its the JPM London whale tactic.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 18:51 | 2460599 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Last I heard a TSA agent stuck a finger up his butt.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 18:51 | 2460601 phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

Idiots intentionally low-balling the price, they knew full well this shit sandwich was gonna cost many multiples of what they first claimed when they lied to the world...

Its the accepted way of banking now... just lie and hope no one notices. 

 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:45 | 2460752 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

"Shark Sandwich"

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 20:34 | 2460861 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

I think his name should be, Runaldo.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 18:51 | 2460603 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Ronaldo the Pompous Prick!

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 20:36 | 2460869 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Por que no?   He kicksa da ball, they kicka da can.   I can see a correlation.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 18:57 | 2460615 brainwashed
brainwashed's picture

never liked the dude. Flops too much and is a crying primadonna. Ze Germans should take him and force him to play for Bayern. Actually should have done it before the Chelsea game.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 23:43 | 2461237 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

That’s “crying <strike>primadonna</strike> Maradonna”

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 18:57 | 2460616 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

So a "euro"--that's a kind of bacteria, I guess?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 18:57 | 2460618 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

I don't know how they can swing it, 9 billion for the rescue and 15 billion for the request to return it to health. That only leaves 6 billion for bonuses, talk about austerity.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:04 | 2460630 AL_SWEARENGEN
AL_SWEARENGEN's picture

These bankster Cocksuckerz have no tricks up their sleeves.  They raped the world economies with monopoly force.  But!  Mistakes can be corrected.  Society must enforce justice and bring back public gallows for these criminals. 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 22:51 | 2461145 TexasAggie
TexasAggie's picture

Remember to include the politicians that helped/assisted/turned their back for campaign contributions. Hang-em 6 at a time for efficiency. Remember the rope is reuseable to save money.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:04 | 2460633 moofph
moofph's picture

...just start producing some ronaldo-itos...and that should bring things into equilibrium.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:05 | 2460634 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

Somebody I know has checking & savings accts at a US subsidiary of Banco Santander.

Should they yank all their $$..?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:12 | 2460660 Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

Depends on if they want Ronaldo shares. 

 

The bank's gonna put him out to stud like Secretariat.

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