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Based On This Chart, Can Saudi Arabia Bail Out The US Motorist From $5 Gas?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

No conclusions here, just a simple chart showing monthly Saudi Arabia crude oil production based on OPEC data, which has been rangebound in a tight 8,000 - 9750 tb/d range, superimposed with Brent prices over the past decade. The last time Brent soared to record highs back in the summer of 2008, Saudi production peaked at 9,522 tb/d (despite similar promises for spikes in crude production and exports). During last spring's spike, Saudi produced around 9,000 tb/d. In the past two months, production has been at record highs, even as oil keeps setting new highs, entirely due to liquidity, but not because speculators are evil incarnate as Nancy Pelosi will want her brainwashed fans to believe, but simply because for the most part they are Primary Dealers, and other entities attached at the hip to the Fed, who serve as Ben Bernanke's transmission mechanism of record liquidity being dumped into the system. Our advice: if anyone is hoping that Saudi Arabia can pump the 12,500 tb/d needed if Iran truly goes offline, buy a bike, as failure from Saudi to satisfy lofty demands will promptly send unleaded to new all time highs. Couple that with the Treasury debt ceiling fiasco in 5-6 months, and those Obama InTrade reelection contracts may seem a tad rich.

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Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:15 | 2270564 markmotive
markmotive's picture

When the world finally wakes up and realizes the Saudis are full of hot air, everything will come crashing down.

Peak oil, the new boom bust cycle and gold.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2011/12/03/peak-oil-the-new-boom-bust-cycle-and-gold/

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:19 | 2270604 sitenine
Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:35 | 2270678 That Peak Oil Guy
That Peak Oil Guy's picture

This is not even the full story.  Domestic use of oil in SA has also gone up, so "they" are using more of "our" oil, which means they actually export less even as production goes up!

Choose Saudi Arabia in the country list on this site:

http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:37 | 2270686 schismjism
schismjism's picture

Can't wait for all ideological flip required by all the free-marketeers when the arse falls out of this economy....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klvsD9AUSFc

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:40 | 2270696 markmotive
markmotive's picture

And what will happen when they decide they need it more than us? It's over. Yeah, we'll send a bunch of tanks over there but conflict in Saudi Arabia won't do anything to ease the price of oil.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 16:44 | 2270927 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Bullshit, they have a platform in the works based off of the Chevy Volt...I hear there are some serious grants involved.

 They claim .65 mpg in this new breakthrough round of recent tests.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 17:00 | 2270951 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Chevy Volt me hole - nothing beats the Skoda Fabia Greenline........... and its cheap to buy also

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ns9HqlXs1NE

www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-fnrRGwNQ8

 www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsdiEc80vKs

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 17:45 | 2271052 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I checked and they claim 83.1 mpg.  Some Austrian guy did a test and was able to drive from Austria to Denmark and back on one tank for 127.8 mpg,  Some serious s**t because Austria to Denmark has some major elevation changes.  Skoda is VW or VAG (VW Audi Group).  1.2 TDi and no hybrid or electric bulls*it. 

The Czechs are about the only people who made decent quality stuff under communism which is really a lite version of Hope & Change marxism.   The Czech's did not have SkyNet or drones flying around killing them or QE infinity.  The Czech's also do not use UAW subhuman union goons to build their stuff.

Oh and the Skoda works in the snow unlike the Volt (less) and it is cheap.

 

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 18:30 | 2271129 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Yeah if you look at the Fiat 500 twin air it appears the Italians have cheated on the figures and never makes it in real world conditions , indeed it does not get even close.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=csax_LrCy9I

However the Skoda beats its offical figures by 10MPG+ with conservative driving.

The Skoda has a diesel engine with very high gear ratios which makes it very sluggish below 30MPH so James Dean like characters won't like it but after 30MPH it works just fine.

It also has narrow wheels , streamlined underprofile , puncture repair kit instead of a spare tyre......

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 23:10 | 2271960 MeelionDollerBogus
Tue, 03/20/2012 - 00:43 | 2272246 rocker
rocker's picture

It has to be Great to be American. Where else do we socialize banking cartels who have the FED as their master.

As we give them billions to garnish their families with subsidized captitalism.

The same banksters leverage themselves to a self inflicted destruction to do one thing. Rinse and Repeat.

So now we got the bailouts from the government.  What now to do ???  All that bailout money with noting to do.  What now ??? 

Make more billions by buying cheap oil and fill super tankers with that oil the government took from reserves for it's average people.

The people never see the oil. What to do now ???  Wait a year or so.  As we got all our rich buddies to the same as planned.

Think Koch Brothers buy a tanker too. Not to be left out, eh.  What to do now ???

Wait. Til "the powers to be" create enough disruption to societies and show the war mongering corruption through main street media.

After the media has been manipulated to scare the hell out of the people. Pumping Oil up, up, and away over war threats. 

Even ZH took this bait. Create the perfect moment to sell your tankers.  Time it with Driving Season.  What to do now ???

Buy a new yacht and fill it up all on the backs of the stupid sheeple.    Wow, what a dream.  Oh Shit. I have to wake up tommow.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 20:30 | 2271468 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

You're right. We should have greek style socialism. Their economy is booming. More bailouts and welfare will save our economy

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 16:18 | 2270844 malikai
malikai's picture

A good war in SA and Iran should curtail domestic consumption in said countries quite well.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 16:22 | 2270866 That Peak Oil Guy
That Peak Oil Guy's picture

But on the other hand could mean the destruction of production facilities that could take years to get back on-line.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 16:25 | 2270870 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Which is why the export land model really i the most appropriate when discussing oil.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 12:49 | 2273718 SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

And exports already peaked...

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 17:11 | 2270991 gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

Last check saudi is using 2.5-3 million of those barrels within country--- as are all producing countries---

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:42 | 2270701 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/russian-anti-terror-troops-arrive-syria/st...

Russian Anti-Terror Troops Arrive in Syria

Now the Russian Black Sea fleet's Iman tanker has arrived in the Syrian port of Tartus on the Mediterranean Sea with an anti-terror squad from the Russian Marines aboard according to the Interfax news agency. The Assad government has insisted it is fighting a terrorist insurgency.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:10 | 2270567 battle axe
battle axe's picture

So the Saudi's lied, what else is new....

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:52 | 2270750 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

They always talk about "production capacity"....

Having old infrastructure good for 1,000,000 bpd on a field that can only provide 600,000 bpd is still counted as 1,000,000 of production capacity....

In the past, they have also been able to spike production by judicious drawdown of their tankfarms leased around the world....

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 17:22 | 2271008 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Good call Flakguy.

The overarching reality of all this stuff is that EIA, IEA, JODI and OPEC all report numbers GIVEN to them by governments.  They do not audit and cross check against shipments because, of course, shipments can't be definitive if you consume domestically.

There were rumors a month or so ago that Lukoil reported corporate oil production to the Russian government, who summed it with Rosneft and others and quoted it as Russian production.  But, of course, Lukoil has leases in Nigeria.

Think about that real carefully, sportsfans.  We Have No Idea What Global Oil Production Is.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 18:08 | 2271089 tonyw
tonyw's picture

We Have No Idea What Global Oil Production Is - but what we know is that it is getting harder and harder to get the stuff otherwise we wouldn't be drilling in deep water, Arctic.... which actually tells us quite a lot.

 

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 18:47 | 2271179 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

True.

If it was infinite and fields refilled themselves, no one would pump anywhere but Oklahoma.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:10 | 2270569 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Who runs bartertown?

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:11 | 2270574 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

Tehran.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:27 | 2270640 redpill
redpill's picture

well...ain't we a pair...raggedy man

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:12 | 2270572 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

HoS has been stealthy in buying the absolute shit out of uST's if I'm not mistaken.

That is about all they can do for their masters. Oh, and supply arms to Syrian 'rebels'.

 

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:14 | 2270586 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Nope - TIC

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:33 | 2270670 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

I looked at UK, thought of the city of London and laughed. Then I looked at Canada, I felt a little worried and the word 'proxy' popped into my head.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 16:18 | 2270845 Shitters_Full
Shitters_Full's picture

Why the serious ramp up in purchases from Luxembourg and Belgium over the last year?

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 16:38 | 2270904 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

Oil exporters have increased Tsy holdings almost 20% YOY, according to the official statement linked.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 19:55 | 2271371 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Thanks, useful chart.

Anyone know where can we find the equivalent for ALL issuance, including Fed purchases?

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:12 | 2270577 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Charts, bitchez!

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:13 | 2270581 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

The last time Brent soared to record heights was last April, the Brent price was actually higher.

- QE 2, remember?

- Attacks all over Libya and the 'war' vs. Qaddafi.

- The 'Arab Spring' threatening Bahrain and eastern Saudi Arabia.

Simmons used to say that when Saudi Arabia's production started to reflect (terminal) depletion, it is 'Game Over'.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:19 | 2270603 markmotive
markmotive's picture

RIP Simmons. He was one of the good guys. Less of a nut job than some of the other peak oilers.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 23:15 | 2271979 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

NONE of the peal-oilers are nut-jobs. That's the science, that's the evidence.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:14 | 2270584 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And at 5$, no American will opose the carpet bombing of Iran.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:26 | 2270633 surf0766
surf0766's picture

That would mean $1.19 increase around me.  No way we can run another buck without everything hitting the shitter.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:31 | 2270658 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I payed 2.03 euro per liter today... About 10,5$ per gallon...

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:38 | 2270687 aerojet
aerojet's picture

Sure, but you have less far to drive, right?  Americans are all spread out and budgets are also spread pretty thin already.  $6-10/gal, game over as far as consumerism goes.  Many people who just stop going to work.  Either that, or they have to get very creative with carpools and mopeds.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:48 | 2270724 surf0766
surf0766's picture

There are 3 refineries closing here within a few months. We expect gas lines to be right around the corner.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 16:22 | 2270840 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Drive to work: 1 hour 45 minutes at best
Drive home: 1 hour 30 minutes to 2 hours if i'm lucky

One way trip is 50 miles but traffic over here is a real bitch.
I drive the kind of car that when i pass a treehugger, they scream like in that movie screamers and run after me like crazy.
As of now, i spend 20% of my paycheck to DRIVE TO WORK!!!!

And remember, food costs about tripple over here

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 16:40 | 2270912 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

And remember, food costs about tripple over here

Hmm, got to say on my last trip to SF a few months back, I didn't really see any difference in the price of food relative to the UK. The US is rapidly catching up, it would appear.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 18:11 | 2271092 tonyw
tonyw's picture

Have you given any serious thought to moving closer to work and buying a fuel efficient car?

Disclaimer, I'm an annual train ticket holder - but i've also got five cars just for fun not commuting:-)

 

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 18:51 | 2271187 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Rule of Physics:

Fuel efficient = Not Crash Survivable  

The lighter the car, the less mass there is surrounding you to absorb impact.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 19:15 | 2271265 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

At least you make sense.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 20:26 | 2271460 smiler03
smiler03's picture

@ CrashisOptimistic

Actually you are completely wrong...

The most dangerous SUV: The Hummer has the highest rate of drivers killed and the highest rollover rate.

"According to a study by the National Highway Safety Traffic Administration (USA), if you are in an accident with an SUV, you are 3.4 times more likely to be killed than if you had been hit by another car. Simply put, on the road, mass wins. Tough luck for the other guy (or woman or child), you might say, but at least I’ll be protected, right? Wrong! SUVs are not safe for their own drivers, either. The higher mass of SUVs make them more difficult to stop. This lack of maneuverability INCREASES the numbers of fatal accidents."

http://www.lilith-ezine.com/articles/automotive/SUVs-Are-Dangerous.html


Mon, 03/19/2012 - 20:35 | 2271486 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

So you think in a crash between a fiat and a hummer you would be safer in a fiat? bwahahahaha

I'd never buy a hummer, but I would never buy a tiny car either. I go with mid-sized for safety. I don't care what some website claims, the insurance actuaries knows that larger cars are safer. They do more tests and collect more data on crashes than the government.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 20:41 | 2275367 smiler03
smiler03's picture

Well I certainly can't blame you for distrusting a US Government Agency so let's look at the safety ratings data from the IIHS ( Insurance Institute for Highway Safety).

G (good) is the highest result, A (acceptable) is the next one down.

Hummer H3

Frontal Offset Test Results: A (acceptable)

Side Impact Test Results (with standard side airbags) - A (acceptable) 

Side Impact Test Results (with optional side airbags) - A (acceptable) 

Roof Strength: no tests conducted

Fiat 500

Frontal Offset Test Results: G (good)

Side Impact Test Results (with standard side airbags): G (good)

Roof Strength Test Results: G (good) 

So the tiny Fiat 500 is safer than the monstrous Hummer. You can think what you want of the facts but size and mass don't necessarily go hand in hand with being robust. Imagine a lightweight car with a giant rubber bubble around it. It would bounce off anything!  Just sayin ;O)

 

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 23:31 | 2272046 Seer
Seer's picture

The interpretation is wrong.

If the Hummer (or other SUV) was parked then it's pretty much perfectly safe.  Yes, I'm serious.  I'm making a case here...

The question is: At what point does that Hummer become "unsafe?"

"The higher mass of SUVs make them more difficult to stop. This lack of maneuverability INCREASES the numbers of fatal accidents."

So, how does this translate to the trucking industry?

Sorry, but it's got everything to do with proper operation, and little to do with mass.  I have always held that it takes TWO to create an accident.  An attentive driver is able to prevent just about any possible accident: only in cases where someone is at a complete stop (well, I'll have to say that I actually saw someone avoid being rear-ended while being at a complete stop- they had no one in front so they gassed it; incredible reaction, and that's my point- it's the driver more than the vehicle), something falls out of the sky, or someone's vehicle blows up (or basically disintegrates, due to major equipment failure) next to you.

Disclaimer: I'm NOT defending Hummers, I think that they're the ultimate statement of unsustainability and excess; however, a fully loaded Hummer is more efficient than a single occupant Prius when it comes to the REAL measure- People Miles Per Gallon.

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