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Bear Market Open Thread

Tyler Durden's picture


Since Zero Hedge updates over the next sevearal few hours will be sparse, please use this opportunity to share your transitory outlooks on current events, life, google trending topics, and pretty much anything else.


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Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:42 | 1579175 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

"Home is the place, when you have to go there, they have to take you in."

Robert Frost

Seriously, yes - my siblings and I would do anything for each other. Very important to have a support system in place in these days.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:33 | 1579337 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Network now and prepare and share information.  For storing cheap good food storage that will last 30 years in an emergency contact the Mormon outfits (you don't have to be a mormon). They are awesome!! Food comes from around the US fro their own farms. They'll help you prepare and can food from a list they have and they do it all at cost. They've been into this sort of thing for years. 

See this link for Canadian locations, or go to US other world locations: Welfare locations

And don't let the name throw you, it's not poverty "welfare", it's for everybody's welfare.


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:12 | 1579926 knukles
knukles's picture

Schadenfreude Bitchez

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:47 | 1578917 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Sturm Ruger...bitchez!


Sat, 08/20/2011 - 03:10 | 1580428 KowPie
KowPie's picture

Super Redhawk Alaskan .44 MAG, .22LR Mark III Bull Barrel Talo. From Grizz to groundhog and everything in between.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:47 | 1578918 TheAkashicRecord
TheAkashicRecord's picture

Best IPA?  Go! (I read it as beer market)

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:49 | 1578925 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Saranac IPA FTW!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:04 | 1578996 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

good choice ... a vote for Harpoon IPA

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:09 | 1579026 sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

Stone IPA

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:01 | 1579240 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Arrogant Bastard.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 20:35 | 1579693 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Nice petard...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:19 | 1579081 TheAkashicRecord
TheAkashicRecord's picture

I do like Stone, would also like to throw out Three Floyd's Dreadnaught, Southern Tier 2x IPA, Bells Two Hearted as good choices

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:22 | 1579103 caerus
caerus's picture

harpoon leviathan...enjoying one now...2nd place 471 ipa...shit gets crazy

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:53 | 1579221 Troublehoff
Troublehoff's picture

Zero Hedge is now a large group of people just waiting for it all to fall over - because most of 'em know it's all too rotten to be redeemed.

The 'system' is like software, spaghetti code. It's badly designed and over a long period of time it becomes inefficient and difficult to maintain - when we start again, all the little delicate 'bug fixes' will be gone

it's going to be brutal

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 19:11 | 1579438 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Waiting? How dare u accuse us of being waiters! Someone set this guy straight!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 19:16 | 1579451 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

In my opinion, spaghetti code can never be fixed. Corporations spend a lot of time trying to do so to justify past spending but it is much more efficient to throw it out and start again. IMHO.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 20:06 | 1579629 Mad Cow
Mad Cow's picture

"spaghetti code"

Good analogy :)

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:55 | 1579392 JB
JB's picture

Ranger IPA from New Belgium. So much hops!

But I can only drink one. I have to switch to Fat Tire, or my current choice of Leinenkugel Summer Wheat- tastes like Fruity Pebbles lol.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:16 | 1579938 knukles
knukles's picture

One of my buds who's a cross between Mr. Rogers and Ward Cleaver has Fruity Pebbles with Lord Calvert poured thereupon for breakfast.   

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 03:12 | 1580432 KowPie
KowPie's picture

Cable Car Pale Lager. Mmmmmm

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:51 | 1579213 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I keep Schlafly's Dry-Hopped APA on tap at home, which gets closer with every tick of the clock.

Meanwhile, I'm the only one still at work.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:08 | 1579268 caerus
caerus's picture

on tap?good choice...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:52 | 1579218 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Lagunitas, despite benefiting the people's state in which it is brewed.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:24 | 1579314 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Pliny the Elder

Lagunitas IPA is good too

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 14:17 | 1581592 caerus
caerus's picture

pliny...yes, definitely

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:49 | 1579377 DeadFinks
DeadFinks's picture

Short's Humalupalicious.  Or for IIPA Great Lakes' Erie Monster or Avery's Maharajah.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:13 | 1580096 Karl Danneskjold
Karl Danneskjold's picture

Hercules Double IPA by Great Divide Brewery

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:50 | 1578928 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

ZH Yoda's,

I come seeking guidance and tutelage.

I am fully out of the paper market and into physical Au and Ag, 75/25 % respectively.

Also holding about 15K each in CAD and CHF (the actual currency) for shits and giggles (love the Swiss 1K note), though this is making me nervous with what I am reading here on ZH.

There is no particular reason for me to hang onto it except to be able to say I am somewhat diversified beyond Au and Ag.

Should I dump the currency?

Thanks in advance.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:06 | 1578990 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

I don't know. Currency seems iffy right about now. I have enough US dollars right now to last me 6-7 months. IS that too much, not enough?

I don't know.

We cannot know the future nor the past, even the present is only known by us at the time and never understood.

The best we can do is, place our bet, or prayer or wish, this day.

What i see is the squeesing of the currency of any value and all worth. This is like what the veitcong did or countless others have done to their currency. Force out any value so that its non-value can buy value at no cost.

Horror and nightmares. Nightmares and horror.

Best of luck and best of love.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:11 | 1579034 tigsman
tigsman's picture

It will last 6-7 months today...after Jackson Hole next week it may only last 2-3 months.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:05 | 1579002 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

What is real?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:12 | 1579041 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture


Real is that dream you have when you are must suffer the consequences of what you do.

Real is the moment you awake to that continues dream of yesterday.

Real is what we are allowed to remember.

In other dreams you dont remember the past but in this one you do.

Real is what we can be but choose not to be.

Real is this nightmare that is unending yet we continue to dream it.

Real is knowing that at anytime we few can choose to dream the same dream and build apone it. For better or worse.


Dream is what is real...So the question is what do you dream?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:34 | 1579147 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

apone... Do you mean "upon"? Not being a smartass, just wondered if you were typing with an accent.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:06 | 1579011 Starving Artist
Starving Artist's picture

I just bought a bunch of CAD today with USD, I don't see that trade getting any worse and I have monthly CAD expenses.  Canada still has a lot of stuff in the ground that might be worth something.  We're pretty much a petro currency, I'd feel a lot better if we had a pipeline over the Rockies so we could sell our oil to China.  Our banks are not well capitalized and we have not yet had a significant RE crash.  On the plus side our debt to GDP is "only" 82% or so.  Not diversified enough away from US economy.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:21 | 1579094 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

ZH Yoda's,

I come seeking guidance and tutelage.

I am fully out of the paper market and into physical Au and Ag, 75/25 % respectively.

Also holding about 15K each in CAD and CHF (the actual currency) for shits and giggles (love the Swiss 1K note), though this is making me nervous with what I am reading here on ZH.

There is no particular reason for me to hang onto it except to be able to say I am somewhat diversified beyond Au and Ag.

Should I dump the currency?

Thanks in advance.



Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:26 | 1579119 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

Point taken. Nice groove BTW.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:36 | 1579151 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

if you want to park cash some where..

Think High Quality Fire Arms.

Think high Quality Property with water on property..


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:15 | 1579282 toady
toady's picture

Got'em, and getting more.

Build alliances, but do it carefully. One bad apple...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:35 | 1579344 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

when you say bad apple you mean one lil piggy! LOL!!

or if you are feeling more serious..


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 19:58 | 1579599 toady
toady's picture

Just don't want the trouble of flushing out a rat.

Or slackers.

Or crybabies.;)

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:32 | 1579335 fuu
fuu's picture

digging way back with that track, nice.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:59 | 1580049 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Not too far back with that track.  i remember when you could only fit 8 tracks on a wonder bread sandwich sized tape.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 00:13 | 1580247 fuu
fuu's picture

Those were the days.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:23 | 1579192 caerus
caerus's picture


edit: BoC account

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 20:34 | 1579691 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

bail on chf, the swiss have lost their minds.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:02 | 1580048 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

Should I dump the currency?

I don't store wealth in anything "they" can manipulate, print to oblivion, etc.  Matter of principle.  Just not gonna do it.  I enjoy sleeping peacefully at night not worrying what "they" are going to do.

To each his own.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:50 | 1578929 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

The Bernank will give a glimpse of QE3 and voila, the whole bunch of folks runs back into stocks. What will happen to gold? Should stocks and gold rise together then? Or gold fall back because of rising stocks?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:11 | 1579037 sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

in such a case i'd expect a pullback to the 150dma (1600ish)... and then load up again.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:12 | 1579047 Starving Artist
Starving Artist's picture

QE would mean additional currency debasement.  As far as I can figure it's a win-win for PMs.

Raising margin requirements IB/CME/etc will hit the price, how much I don't know.  There are some strong hands in the game now that know how the game is being played.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:16 | 1579286 gwar5
gwar5's picture



Yes that's it.

Anytime Obama or Bernanke open their pieholes to talk about spending or stimulatinge,  it's ++  for PMs, because we're already buried in debt. 

Raising CME margin requirements hurts the price of PMs, temporarily, because some traders will have to sell because they can't meet the increased margin requirements.


Sat, 08/20/2011 - 01:37 | 1580356 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Shakedown style. Or is that just a sign that PMs are inflated by leveraged longs?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:13 | 1579053 tigsman
tigsman's picture

Gold seems to have the Bernank incompetence put. It only has two gears right now, neutral and drive. Reverse is out of order.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:10 | 1580082 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

$1852 gold might be the main reason Bernokio is holding back on QE3.   Gold breaking thru $2000 would be a major psychological hammer on the US dollar.  Bernokio won't risk it. 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 01:38 | 1580359 snowball777
snowball777's picture

You keep pretending like he has a choice. Having to announce a decision with dissenters and put a date out there was a 'psychological' barrier too.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:51 | 1578934 Apocalypse Now
Apocalypse Now's picture

Not investing advice, just my perspective that might be useful for others.

I found peace of mind by rejecting a one dimensional view of the market looking for balance in the duality of being both a bull and a bear towards different asset classes and time lines – A (B)ull ear.

“Don’t just do something, stand there” is a good saying when you need to hold over a longer time period.

Liquidity floats or sinks all boats causing inflation and deflation in the price of assets including booms and busts. 90% of all returns on average are based on asset allocation, but recently with high equity asset correlations assets were going up and down at a similar rate – that might suggest government support buying across the entire market. Because of this, I simplified on short term moves and typically stick with SPY for the market while also in gold, silver, and cash.

TLT hit 110 last year at this time and dropped quickly once the fear factor abated. It’s looking like a good put buy soon after the 1st when the dividend is paid, things stabilize, financial stimulus is announced, and people realize there is little yield with a rating downgrade in LT government bonds relative to inflation.

Easing or no easing and the size is the biggest question that will impact returns this year. If they juiced the market when the economy was stable and don’t when the economy has now essentially gone into a recession, it will look like a systemic pump and dump suggesting poor planning and lack of bullets. When you have the reserve currency, game theory would suggest printing more. If that happens and gold drops a bit, money will come out of bonds, cash, and metals and back into equities. Let's call it a fine technical term: Easy Queezy (QE)

The future(s) are not guaranteed, the past is history (with no guarantee of future performance), and today (spot) is a gift - that's why we call it the present (value).

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:02 | 1578987 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture


Something IS going on behind the scenes!

It was not necessarily to watch the stock markets. 

 It smells like "something" is going on behind the scene that we (the public) were not privy to. We still do not know exactly (we can make some good guesses though) "what" it is but we now have evidence that SOMETHING BIG is out there.

As reported, M2 money supply grew more for the latest reported week than any week in history EXCEPT the weeks of 911 in 2001 and the "Lehman week" back in 2008. In other words The Fed is throwing money at "something". Whatever this "something" is it must be bad and it must be very very big!

We can speculate as to what this might be, it could be that the run on European banks has intensified or begun here in the States. It could be one or several institutions (a better bet on several), it could be one or more giant hedge funds have blown up.

It surely could be that a sovereign has it's back up against the wall (Spain or Italy come to mind) It could be that the (a or several) debt markets have backed away from a sovereign and there is a buyers strike. We know that the 30 year U.S. auction was a dismal failure and it is possible that the credit markets have shut off Uncle Sam. It could be something as simple (I am making a joke here) as Chavez calling his paltry 211 tonnes of Gold in and the authorities know it does not exist, they may be "pre cushioning" the markets for the biggest fraud of all time.

Who knows?

The Fed does not act in this manner unless something has gone VERY VERY wrong! Think about it, the only 2 prior weeks where The Fed has acted in this manner were 911 and the Lehman week, enormous events to say the least. The fact that we do not know what it is leads me to to believe we will wake up one morning to the markets being closed.

I hate to sound like a broken record but it is imperative that you have whatever position on that you want for possibly the next month or even 6 months. I do not believe the powers that be will "allow" the little guy to participate in any revaluation. You MUST front run TPTB and be sitting in your chair before the music stops or you will be locked out. TPTB want as many "slaves" as possible and the only way to insure this is to revalue with as few people on the Gold train as possible!

I do want to comment on Hugo Chavez calling in Venezuela's Gold. There is speculation of all sorts as to why, in my mind he has been "informed" as to just how "tight" the Gold market is and he does not want his metal confiscated. He may also be "testing" the western financial system as to whether his Gold is even vaulted anymore. This may be his "final bow", he could possibly be trying to take the system down should delivery not be made. This is all wild speculation but in recent times "truth has outdone fiction" on a daily basis.

If you think back 18 nonths or so when the Bank of India "bought" their 200 tonnes and sent tremors through the Gold market (kudos to Jim Sinclair as he maintained all along that central banks would become buyers!).

Think further back for eons and you will remember the numerous times that the IMF would step up to cool down the Gold market by threatening to sell Gold, it worked very well early on and now has no effect at all. The Eurozone is no longer selling their 400-500 tonnes per year and central banks have become buyers to roughly this same amount. THIS represents a reversal of some 800 tonnes in a market where producer supply is estimated at 2,500 tonnes annually. Supply and demand has "turned" 33% or so over the course of 2 years or less and people want to call top here?

We will see but it seems to me like the jig is up and the western vaults are having their bluffs called. 99 out of 100 Gold and Silver "investors" are going to find out that they have NOTHING and maybe never did. Can you imagine the anger?

Be ready for anything at any time now because we just cannot see below the surface (or into the vaults), something HUGE is now happening and The Fed can only respond with the last arrows in their quiver, increasing the money supply.

The game appears to be over right here and now, all that remains is for TPTB to let us know it it's over. I suspect we will finally be allowed to "know" when they can no longer open the markets and announce "game over" with no two minute warning!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:12 | 1579043 raki_d
raki_d's picture

Who the fuck reads all this horse shit ?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:15 | 1579060 tigsman
tigsman's picture


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:55 | 1579394 Mongrel
Mongrel's picture

And DHS.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:22 | 1579098 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Thanks for that, DP.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:25 | 1579114 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture


potential crisis brewing?

This sort of thing is above my pay grade, ... in terms of the sudden spike in M2. It is my understanding that there are potentially trillions of dollars of CDS paper that could have been triggered by the downgrade in US debt last month, and therefore those bets must be paid off.

We all know there is no real money backing those swaps and just as AIG was swinging in the wind after the mortgage bonds started detonating, I suspect some issuers of these CDS are in serious trouble here. We have no way of knowing just how serious the problem is because these are OTC deals. There was an initiative to install a central clearing house as a neutral counterparty to ensure that this kind of meltdown could be prevented and bring transparency into the system, but I think it stalled and went down in flames.

So none of this paper has come to light yet, but there is a very serious problem brewing here. So too with the rapid decline in the 10-yr note. Again, I do not play in that particular sandbox but I understand you can bet on the direction of interest rates as a form of hedging for those that put big money into bonds, and the total leverage on these derivatives could be in the trillions as well. Some firm somewhere is probably going off like a hand grenade right now and it has simply not surfaced yet as to the extent of the crisis.

No wonder there is such a desire to own physical gold even as the price sets a new all-time high on almost a daily basis.

This kind of thing has never happened in history. When LTCM and Refco blew up many years ago, the boys got together and found a way to keep it all contained and divide up the losses amongst themselves.

Can a problem of this magnitude be resolved quietly with a huge pile of money injected into the system?

We will be finding out soon enough. Just adding up the total amount of money that has been printed to keep things from getting terminal so far, one would have to assume it is many multiples of the total amount of gold on the planet even with the current higher spot market price. And it seems the only option left to keep the system even in pretend mode is to continue printing and papering over each new crisis that comes out of this mess.

Which begs the question... when will it occur to some of the really big money players out there to just start buying up gold juniors with large undeveloped deposits? I can think of many that are trading below $50 per ounce of gold in the ground. Historically the market would value these juniors at 5 - 10% of in situ value and during manias that could climb much higher.

Yet the juniors are getting cheaper by the day. Today alone many solid juniors with multi-million ounce resources and huge cash positions in their treasuries getting hammered in the trading. Look up SBB, UXG, GCU, ER, EAS... These stocks have no reason at all to sell off in this market and if people start to understand that real gold and silver are the only asset of safety, then the light will have to go on soon and set off a buying frenzy in the high quality juniors.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:47 | 1579193 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture


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or pick the following:




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Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:09 | 1579270 Strider52
Strider52's picture

I know what the bomb is: They're going to devalue gold.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:22 | 1579307 nmewn
nmewn's picture

With what?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:59 | 1579405 fuu
fuu's picture


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 19:32 | 1579519 nmewn
nmewn's picture

LOL!!! + one lead ingot ;-)

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:19 | 1579941 knukles
knukles's picture

Salted Bars

For real!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:41 | 1580000 nmewn
nmewn's picture

You see how some people think?

Full faith & credit is still tangible now, somehow? near half the country is relying on the other half to support them and some are still talking about faith & credit???...sometimes I could just fucking scream.

And here I thought faith & credit were bad things in certain quarters...but I'm just being provocative now ;-)

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:06 | 1580066 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Yes, and discriminating used to refer to refined taste.  Now it refers to you, if you shoot the flash mobber who is raping your daughter.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 00:17 | 1580254 knukles
knukles's picture

LOL Too fucking true.
But funny.

                         (poking body witn toe, laughing maniacially....)

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 03:15 | 1580434 KowPie
KowPie's picture

I knew a girl named faith once and she didn't accept credit.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 01:40 | 1580360 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Maybe they found a bunch lining the walls of the reactors in Fukushima.

Recriticality, bitchez!


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 20:11 | 1579646 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Lol.  + one 17 round clip of lead, changed from gold.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 00:18 | 1580257 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh yeah!
Reverse alchemey.
Sorta like reverse discrimination.


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:45 | 1579369 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

If they do that, there are lots of buyers.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:38 | 1579986 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

David Pierre - Thanks for the insights.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:47 | 1579374 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Yes, you are right. Maybe they will stand up from the table, catching the monopoly board with the top of Bernake's belt buckle, flipping the whole thing over, with houses and motels, chance cards and funny money scattering in every direction so that the game as it was can never be put back together again. Something like an EMP bitches, now prove what you had where and when.

A giant massive do-over. The end of life as WE know it.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:51 | 1578936 takinthehighway
takinthehighway's picture

Music to unwind with...smoke 'em if you got 'em!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:55 | 1578954 TheAkashicRecord
TheAkashicRecord's picture

I'll add to this

Gary Clark Jr. - 3 O'clock Blues (live)

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 01:48 | 1580367 snowball777
Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:52 | 1578938 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Does anyone know when the new season of American Idol starts? Thank goodness there is an Dolphin pre-season game tonight. Need to immerse myself in TV, the opiate of the people. [SARC]

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:04 | 1578940 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

edit squared

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:52 | 1578941 TheAkashicRecord
TheAkashicRecord's picture

What's the correlation between Ag and Au, and if tightly correlated, what are benefits to holding both? 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:55 | 1578951 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

For over 2000 years both have been accepted as money and have not lost their purchasing power.  No other medium of exchange can make that claim.  Want to protect the value of your labor, get physical.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:07 | 1579017 TheAkashicRecord
TheAkashicRecord's picture

That's an argument for holding one or the other but not both at the same time =)

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:20 | 1579086 Tree of Liberty
Tree of Liberty's picture

Jim Sinclair says Gold is real money protection and Silver is just a game (one that usually outperforms gold).  So Gold for wealth protection and Silver for real asset appreciation.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:03 | 1578981 caerus
caerus's picture

from a trading perspective, imo...they behave like sinusoidal functions that are out of phase...overlay graphs of egc and esi...course i may be wrong

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:14 | 1579054 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Go to Kitco and review the historical charts.  That should tell you all you need to know about correlations. 

Lately, the POS has been depressed more than usual by the JPMorgue - but that looks to have been broken today. We'll see if it holds.

Also check out Harvey Organ's blog.  That's one of the best summaries out there.

Bennies to holding both are in diversity and hedging volitility.  Au is more stable, Ag more volitile generally.  Most PMers believe that Ag has the greater upside.

PS  If you don't hold physical - you don't own it.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:24 | 1579112 Starving Artist
Starving Artist's picture

Fingers broken?  Look gold/silver ratio and tell me if they are correlated

Technically gold looks overbought and silver under, but who knows.  Gold has a lot more panache.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:26 | 1579120 Starving Artist
Starving Artist's picture

PS silver coin is also a handy size & value if the shit really hits the fan


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:01 | 1579243 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Gold is better for storing value, silver is better for spending/trading for daily needful things.


Sat, 08/20/2011 - 01:52 | 1580370 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Prefer Au, if you can afford it. It's less abundant in the earth's crust and people tend not to manufacture industrial things with it (or not, during recessions) so its worth will be less volatile than Ag. That being said, when industrial demand does ramp, it may not be bad to have Ag on hand to offer.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:53 | 1578943 caerus
caerus's picture

short pcln

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:53 | 1578945 homegr0wn
homegr0wn's picture


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:20 | 1579084 Nick Elway
Nick Elway's picture


Thanks for asking ..I sent the link to a friend and it appears to still work.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:31 | 1579138 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Fuck Perry he is a Crystal Meth Male Hooker Luvin Freak.. just like the rest of those FAKE Jesus Freaks!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:54 | 1578946 hunglow
hunglow's picture

Hooters is (are) calling me.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:17 | 1579076 tigsman
tigsman's picture

You mean Hooti, I believe.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:54 | 1578948 Apocalypse Now
Apocalypse Now's picture

This ZH post supports the “tank the market to support QE” thesis:

This WSJ piece might answer the previous question of why the market tanked, and based on political timing I can see the markets staying low key until Jackson Hole on the 26th. The only reason one would risk trillions in market value is if “we” had a good handle on setting price (round tripping / algo quotes moving direction). If markets can be moved down quickly they can also be moved up quickly.

For example, keep oil prices at $100/barrel for most of the year and then when you want more QE just drop it down briefly right before the decision so it appears inflation is not an issue. If the equity market drop is only temporary and can be made up by month end statements and the three day labor day weekend we are OK with no harm except if people sold at the lows or stop limits were triggered.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:28 | 1579127 Starving Artist
Starving Artist's picture

Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, etc will blow up if Brent goes under $80.  They are doing massive cash giveaways to placate their population.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:49 | 1579205 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

am invovled in int'l biz .... it is super clear going in boatloads to public health projects, social projects , etc. in ME ... those not rocked yet ... 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:47 | 1579194 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

there are additional relevant new comments over at that piece .... seems like there are some 'mysteries' emerging.


Columbia, at risk of hot money ... keeps its interest rates unchanged ..... fascinating   .... keep it stable in the sea of instability ....

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 00:06 | 1580238 Rick64
Rick64's picture


 Isn't this tanking of the market helping support treasury auctions so the FED doesn't have to buy so many. 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 02:30 | 1580384 Apocalypse Now
Apocalypse Now's picture

I'm sure it is making a statement outlining to the world who runs barter town and controls price on assets around the world - also China, you really want us to do more QE.  I am reminded of the scene from Training Day where Denzel Washington (Imagine him dressed as the US Dollar or Treasuries - Banzai?) says, "'cause I'm gonna' burn this motherfucker down. King Kong ain't got shit on me. ... Yeah, you can shoot me, but you can't kill me. ".

The numbers are getting to be so large, and if every country is in financial trouble I would like to ask a very important question: Besides our few foreign trade partners buying government debt, who are the creditors?  Everything is going so short term including foreign owners of debt going to short term maturities that pay little interest but it has to get rolled.  It's like approaching the event horizon of a black hole with all this debt and there will not be enough capital on earth to fund the deficits and roll the debt so they will have to monetize.  If this is all for a short term roll, then the government debt is literally sucking in all capital like a black hole and other asset classes will drop due to lack of capital unless they eye up 401K assets.

If we have quote stuffing in equities I would not be surprised if the same fake volumes are showing up in fixed income as capital liquidity becomes scarce around the world (monetization).  If monetization occurs to maintain the status quo with current government employee salaries, expenditures, and rolling debt then it would not be inflationary as prices would stay static.  New money as we saw with QE was moving into commodities and other assets causing inflation and did not get us any new jobs.  If foreigners do not roll the debt and pull dollars from bank accounts they could decide to use billions/trillions to buy gold or silver instead (Chavez) we could have some big commodity pops.  This is like the prisoner's dilemma because if anyone panics global markets can tank and if it does there is a first mover advantage as participants edge towards the exits nervously watching each other since the gold up elevator only has limited capacity.

Tyler should post Exeter's Pyramid again as we have experienced small business (main street) problems, Real Estate dropping, Diamonds/OTC stocks/Commodities dropping, MUNI's are next followed by Corporate Bonds, Listed Stocks, Government Bonds, Treasury Bills, fed res notes (paper), and finally Gold.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:55 | 1578952 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture


Weekly World News

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:56 | 1578955 zeroman
zeroman's picture

I THINK IT IS TIME FOR ME TO TAKE THE CONTRARIAN VIEW HERE. Too many bearish individuals and too many bets to the down side for me to believe it is actually going to happen.  With the Euro collapsing, it is inevitable the U.S. monetary system will benefit from their failure simply by default of all other options. Yes, i  know Gold Gold gold. However, the higher it goes the less likely the majority will be able to access Gold.  Therefore, it is time to think about the reality of it. I see employment picking up, suppliers and manufacturers have learned how to deal with business at a lesser level and without banks.  Customers are learning to get by without financing and there is an underlying sense of an ecnonomy running  at a lower level but steadily.  Therefore, I think that I am sensing the worst of the unemployment is behind us and that the business reports we are seeing are mostly rear view mirror oriented and that the bottom is in here.

Soon, markets will have no choice to become use to the European crisis and it will be priced in. Is it another 10%-15%?  Maybe and maybe not. However, once the Euro Zone gets a more organized and fed like ponzi program going or collapses, the U.S. will still be the place to be simply by default.  Additionally, with pressure on congress, deficits will be cut minimally but cut nonetheless. Business incentives will be proposed and passed for fear of election outrage, and the reailty that Obama will porbably not get re-elected will soon be realized giving bib business their hope!  However, I could be wrong.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:02 | 1578986 unky
unky's picture

Then go ahead and buy stocks! But dont be suprised if PMs outperform your portfolio due to money printing

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:18 | 1579078 Tree of Liberty
Tree of Liberty's picture


Amen, UNKY

I do think this is like catching a falling knife at this point and precious metals will continue to outshine the market; even with further margin increases that continue to appear at opportunistic times.  Just sayin....

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:16 | 1579067 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Also add...

"But you STILL can't eat gold... Unlike stocks and bonds which apparently are very tasty and the cashier at the grocery store apparently will accept them like cash"

There, fixed.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:21 | 1579092 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

"However, the higher [gold] goes the less likely the majority will be able to access Gold. "

Yes - which will drive the price to the moon - which is why if you don't hold any yet - you better get on it before it's $5k/oz.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:56 | 1578956 zeroman
zeroman's picture

I THINK IT IS TIME FOR ME TO TAKE THE CONTRARIAN VIEW HERE. Too many bearish individuals and too many bets to the down side for me to believe it is actually going to happen.  With the Euro collapsing, it is inevitable the U.S. monetary system will benefit from their failure simply by default of all other options. Yes, i  know Gold Gold gold. However, the higher it goes the less likely the majority will be able to access Gold.  Therefore, it is time to think about the reality of it. I see employment picking up, suppliers and manufacturers have learned how to deal with business at a lesser level and without banks.  Customers are learning to get by without financing and there is an underlying sense of an ecnonomy running  at a lower level but steadily.  Therefore, I think that I am sensing the worst of the unemployment is behind us and that the business reports we are seeing are mostly rear view mirror oriented and that the bottom is in here.

Soon, markets will have no choice to become use to the European crisis and it will be priced in. Is it another 10%-15%?  Maybe and maybe not. However, once the Euro Zone gets a more organized and fed like ponzi program going or collapses, the U.S. will still be the place to be simply by default.  Additionally, with pressure on congress, deficits will be cut minimally but cut nonetheless. Business incentives will be proposed and passed for fear of election outrage, and the reailty that Obama will porbably not get re-elected will soon be realized giving bib business their hope!  However, I could be wrong.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:08 | 1579022 Peak Everything
Peak Everything's picture

Sorry, I do not buy it. The only things that matter are the debt to income ratio and the flow rate of net energy. The former is much too high and the latter is falling. This combination guarantees a collapse in wealth. I do agree that the US will do better than the rest of the world (due to its natural capital and location) however its still going to be very bad.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:56 | 1578957 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

The same author at the globe and mail that was attempting to discredit Zero Hedge is at it again. This time he makes a weak case and calls Zero Hedge an Oddball. Check it out, support your independant alternative media. Spread the word.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:30 | 1579136 Starving Artist
Starving Artist's picture

Oh FFS....

The argument the other way runs that by using total assets you are lumping in Canadian banks' assets like mortgages with the Greek bonds on the balance sheets of European banks

Right, because Canadian RE is never ever ever going to correct.  Just like Australia.  Oh wait....

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:57 | 1578960 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture


Notice Gold up while WTI crude oil and Equities get whiplashed?

Trading range on DOW down to 9000-9400 before you should even think about buying.

The HFT machines are having a good time - let me tell you.

Ben pretty much said "We will continue to punish savers, retirees, pensioners, and Senior Citizens for the sake of the Banks and Politicians".  Green light for Hal 9000 and the boys.




Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:58 | 1578974 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Who do I call?  My Volt needs a jump.

Hell, so do I.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:43 | 1579183 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:12 | 1579276 caerus
caerus's picture


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:45 | 1580016 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Who do I call?  My Volt needs a jump.

A Kangaroo.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:58 | 1578975 nohweh
nohweh's picture

Just a transitory negative recovery

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:58 | 1578976 Apocalypse Now
Apocalypse Now's picture

The latest Martin Armstrong report warned Paulson that Goldman Sachs might target his positions as the next panic trade. Paulson has one of the largest gold positions of any hedge fund, and they might be trying to trigger margin calls on Paulson to get him to sell the funds gold.

It's possible he is just in crummy banking stocks, but I do find it interesting that his specific positions have been taking huge hits and wonder if Martin Armstrong called it.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:13 | 1579052 h4rdware
h4rdware's picture

Anyone who survives what he had to go through without becoming a broken, hollow shill is ok in my book, even if he is a bit mad. And I'm not certain he is.

He's earned his right to wild predictions. And looking at the state of the world right now, if it's not wild its probably not right either.


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:06 | 1579264 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

sure seems that way doesn't it, colonel.   HP is the tell, no?   now we begin to understand why crazy uncle marty was kept in the attic for so long.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:04 | 1578999 Lone Mad Minute...
Lone Mad Minute Medic's picture

Fish tacos! Tonight

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:08 | 1579023 gall batter
gall batter's picture

Corexit salsa?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:15 | 1579056 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

and a nice 2010 vintage heavy crude to wash it down.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:06 | 1579007 tajitj
tajitj's picture

I think I have commented twice on this site. Just want to sing the praises of the publishers and even the in house commenters. I have many times broke out in laugher only to read my wife some ridiculously funny comment left here. There is a lot of wisdom tossed around and it is appreciated. If made to pick only one site to visit for the rest of my life everyday, ZH would get it.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:21 | 1579090 tigsman
tigsman's picture

You got something against porn?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:48 | 1579197 tajitj
tajitj's picture

Ok, scratch that, my favorite porn site would be the only one I visit. I would make my wife choose ZH has her only one to view!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:06 | 1579012 X Yooper
X Yooper's picture

Long-time lurker, first post. Excuse me while I brag a little!  :-) I work in the cash office for a large store. Everyday that I work, I bring home at least one 1964 or older coin. I look upon this as my “bonus” for a job well done. Can’t beat that….a clad coin for a silver coin! Since the beginning of this year, I have “bought” around $15 (clad) in silver coins. No one I work with understands what I am doing, nor do I wish to enlighten them. When asked why I want that coin, I respond, it looks interesting so instead of wasting work time to look at it, I will take it home for inspection.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:08 | 1579019 caerus
caerus's picture


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 19:28 | 1579501 poor fella
poor fella's picture

FYI - I was guilty of saving 1964 and older nickels but alas, there is NO silver unless it's a 1942-1945 nickel..  They DO look different for the most part... but from age. You never know, might want to save them anyway, look at all the pennies worth 2 cents!  ;)

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 20:03 | 1579581 caerus
caerus's picture

I got a copper 69 s penny as change for gold libs...dble strike? i wish...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:02 | 1579753 Shirley Wilfahrt
Shirley Wilfahrt's picture

A local pawn shop sold me 10 WWII nickels for $8 this afternoon. Two were 1940...but the rest were 42-45...Thank you very much.


After I paid him I told him the 42-45 were silver coins and the dumb fuck still didn't believe me.


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:52 | 1580035 Hulk
Hulk's picture

You a dumb ass, LOL !


Sat, 08/20/2011 - 00:55 | 1580305 Shirley Wilfahrt
Shirley Wilfahrt's picture

$2.41 melt value each....I paid about half does that make me a dumb ass again?


Sat, 08/20/2011 - 11:11 | 1580976 Hulk
Hulk's picture

You gave up the secret! 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 07:28 | 1580623 X Yooper
X Yooper's picture

I have a bucket full of pre-82 pennies. Those I just collect from pocket change (too many to take from work!). However, glad you mentioned war nickels. I have learned what they look like by their patina and since the rolls are in clear tubes, it is fairly easy to spot them. Those are the rolls I open and use first. In one roll, I came out with a silver nickel and a 1937 buffalo (common, but still cool).


As for plain ol’ nickels, I have a stash of them, too since they are worth more than face value.


It seems that the silver dimes and quarters come in groups. One box of quarters can have 3 to 6 silver while another box will have none. Same with dimes. And they almost always in great condition….as if someone cashed in a collection. Again, since the tubes are clear. It is easy to find them (except I have been fooled by current Canadian coins too many times).


But what really surprises me is the silver I find in the loose change (coins used by customers when making purchases). Last week, it was a mercury dime. Now how could anyone miss that one???

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:08 | 1579024 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Hydro Bitchez

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 19:15 | 1579452 toady
toady's picture

Check out the hydro bucket at Vancouver hack space.

Unless your talking about hydrocodone. Thats pretty kewl too!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:09 | 1579025 baseball13
baseball13's picture

Good Afternoon ZH fans!

   Hope you've all been good PM stackers! Just had an hour long meeting with my state senator regarding our state following in the steps of UTAH and him introducing a bill to establish sound money in our state. Because he stayed for a whole hour, i think he actually listened! He asked about who would benefit and who would be against it and i think i covered the bases. Will keep you and the Turd's fans updated on my progress. I might be going down to the capitol to present my case. Wish me luck! (Wish us all luck!!!)

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:51 | 1579212 caerus
caerus's picture


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:09 | 1579029 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

former Minuteman missile silo's turned doomsday condos bitchez!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:19 | 1579299 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Hey!...Krugmans little green aliens showed up over a chinese airport today!!!

We're saved!!!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 20:13 | 1579653 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

link por favor senor?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:18 | 1579786 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture


Another UFO In China Shuts Down Another Airport : August 19, 2011

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:54 | 1579879 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

gracias cheesy -- i like this utube lady Mary Greeley, she's cool.   check this one out, same day, yesterday:

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:10 | 1579919 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

De nada my friend.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:57 | 1579888 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Thanks. Heard about it today coming home on the radio.

All I could think of was Fareeeky Z interviewing Krugman and a cutaway announcement to Martha's Vineyard from Barry that they come in peace bearing shovels for everyone!!!...I almost crashed...ROTFLMAO!!!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:12 | 1579925 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Lol.  Mars is shovel ready?

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