The Beginning Of The End For John Paulson?

Tyler Durden's picture

Because redemption requests are like cockroaches: once one appears, assume many, many more:

  • CITIGROUP'S PRIVATE BANK SAID TO PULL $500M FROM PAULSON FUNDS - BBG
  • CITIGROUP SAID TO REDEEM FROM PAULSON ADVANTAGE, ADVANTAGE PLUS - BBG

Is this the beginning of the end for the former Bear Stearns M&A banker and once infallible hedge fund manager? And to think he could have saved himself all the deep fundamental work telling him Las Vegas real estate is "cheap" and just bought Apple. Hey, everyone else is doing it. And everyone else can't possibly be wrong. As for Paulson, whose GLD holdings, which are not an investment but merely a gold denomination share class, will likely quite soon see a substantial hit as he is forced to unwind GLD holdings as more and more external investors redeem until finally JP is just left running his own and his employees' money.

Finally, recall what we said three days ago when we broke the Goldman report that only 11% of HFs are outperforming the S&P: "the day of redemption reckoning at the end of the year (and just after September 30 for that matter as well) could be the most painful yet. it also explains why, just like every other quarter in which career risk is at all time highs, HFs are dumping everything not nailed down and buying up AAPL, which as of June 30 was held by an all time high 230 hedge funds (more on that later)."

For Paulson D-Day may have arrived. It is also coming for hundreds of other underperforming funds who will now have to shift from net buyer to gross liquidator as their LPs demand their cash back ahead of the September 30 redemption deadline. Add that technical consideration to all the other September sell off woes.

In short - he who redeems first, redeems best.