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The Beginning Of The European Endgame
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
ECB Bond-Buying Should End With New EFSF, German Motion Says
I think this is one of the most important bits of news on the day. This and the fact that the Dutch finally said something - and it wasn't positive.
I have been arguing that the solutions create contagion rather than prevent it. I've also argued that the ECB and EFSF and to some extent the IMF are all the same pools of money.
Now that Europe has actually tried to do some calculations, which it is apparent that up until last week, they hadn't done, they are coming to the same conclusion.
On Friday the "haircuts" on Greece get serious. No more bogus high coupon principal protected notes - but real notional reductions of 50 per cent or more.
I believe the ECB has a portfolio of 55 billion of Greek debt. If average price was 80 then that is a 16.5 billion actual loss.
ECB, unlike our beloved FED, doesn't want to just print money so they make a capital call on their members. Yes, the same members that back the EFSF.
How many of those members even remembered the ECB can call for additional capital (it's why they are so happy to employ the double down don't frown trading strategy).
The terms of ECB capital calls are worse than EFSF because they are joint and several. If countries don't meet their obligations they don't go away, they get passed to another country.
So as ECB loads up on PIIGS debt and losses or haircuts would be paid for by the non problem countries - in addition to their EFSF obligations.
Germany maybe has learned not to overextend and is scared to pile this (previously ignored) liability on top of it's EFSF guarantees. At least EFSF is something they have control over.
France I think was planning on loading up the ECB with so much debt they would just capitulate and print money.
Other people have more knowledge of the ECB but the ECB has things in common with the FED but also has similarities to the EFSF. I think this is an important turning point for the politicians in Germany and other prudent countries and they are trying to limit how much they can lose in this last ditch attempt to avoid making countries and banks and investors pay for their mistakes.
From Bloomberg:
ECB’s Need for Bond-Buying Should End With New EFSF, Bundestag Motion Says
German lawmakers are set to vote on a non-binding call for the European Central Bank to end its secondary-market bond-buying program once the enhanced European rescue fund is enacted,
The joint motion, agreed on by the government parties and the main opposition in Berlin today, sets out terms for the lower house, the Bundestag, supporting the European Financial Stability Facility in a vote tomorrow. It “notes that the need” for the ECB to continue its secondary-market program ends with the new fund’s enactment and urges Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government to “respect” the ban on central-bank credits as well as primary-market purchases by the ECB as the EFSF is set in stone.
“For us it was a condition that the Bundestag, respecting the central bank’s independence, has a clear position: no more unconditional debt-buying by the ECB,” Carsten Schneider, the opposition Social Democratic Party’s budget spokesman in parliament, told reporters after a budget committee meeting.
The motion sets criteria to which Merkel must adhere when she goes to Brussels after the EFSF vote tomorrow for a second European summit in four days. The budget committee or the full chamber must be allowed to vote once more after leverage models have been transformed into guidelines for the fund, according to the text. It also stipulates that systemically important banks re-capitalize by June 30, 2012.
‘Non-Standard Methods’
Merkel said earlier today that Germany opposed the inclusion of a reference to the ECB continuing its bond-buying program in a draft text prepared for tomorrow’s summit. While officials are still working on the text, “the wording doesn’t state that there should be more secondary-market purchases, but rather that the non-standard methods of the European Central Bank could be pursued further,” she said.
The motion, drafted by ruling coalition lawmakers and distributed to reporters by Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, aims to attract the broadest possible support from the opposition Social Democrats and Greens in tomorrow’s vote by seeking to curtail the potential demands on German taxpayers of the enhanced fund.
These include ensuring strict adherence to the EFSF’s guarantee framework, with a cap on German guarantees at the existing level of 211 billion euros ($293 billion), and ruling out “optimizations” of the EFSF that can alter its framework treaty.
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It's over Johnny . . . IT'S OVER!
Netherlands told Merkel "fuck off beyotch" and is going back to the Gulden.
About effin time.
But the attached Organisation chart shows the real situation in Europe:
http://yfrog.com/z/hs882hdj
Now that chart is truly funny and truly true.
So the weather's cold. Snow, ice, whatever. So what?
I think that's bird shit not snow.
LOL.
whatwhut??? what did i miss?
its not over till its over. we were thinking it was over in 2008... we are in 2011.
I am sure they will be another miracle devices like Ipad, FED, ECB, BOJ and so on.... Miracles just don't stop comming in...
You mean Merkel is the Fat lady?
wait until she sings!
----
I usually enjoy all Tchir posts - this one is not one of the best and I disagree.
The option of calling for capital of the ECB is only for cases where the ECB needs to "defend" a certain level of the EUR. Since we are all in the "down" leg of the currency wars, there is no need at all - although there might be a future (leg "up") where govs will be busy screaming at the CBs to "do something" to keep the currency up.
CB "losses" of 16.5 or even 50 bn? Peanuts. The puny little SNB can have more without breaking pace - for example last year because of the book value of the EUR and USD holdings they had (from memory) some 22bn.
It's like you know there might be a war next to your village and your wife complains you are buying ammo - it's a loss, she says. Yes, darling, it's a "loss". No darling, I will buy ammo.
Financial commentators have the bad habit of looking at Central Banks as if they were Banks - CB's can't go broke, they can only become - for lack of a better word - "impotent", i.e. without sufficient FX reserves at the right moment.
Nonsense. Of course they can go broke. Insolvency is an inescapable condition, not a state of mind. When a CBs owings exceed the value of what it owns (by more than its capital), it's done. Such a zombie may continue to stalk the landscape, but it is financially dead w/o new capital. A clever change of terminology to "impotent" is just a fashionable way of trying to try to evade this fact.
Au still rippin' in overnight hours. Curious. Maybe the sideways movement is taking time out, or maybe there's a little more safe haven leakage going down here. We'll see...
"The terms of ECB capital calls are worse than EFSF because they are joint and several. If countries don't meet their obligations they don't go away, they get passed to another country."
The obligations of the member national central banks may be joint and several, but the pass-through mechamism, if any, is to my knowledge not fixed at all. In theory it could be ECB Capital Key (but isn't even fixed to that), but how the money is contributed and in which order, if e.g. Greece and Ireland can't cough their share, is not defined by my knowledge. And won't be defined in a hurry.
So effectively, ECB capital call is toothless, and in fact ECB operates ring-fenced. It can easily take the losses and can not pass them on. Negative equity in balance sheet doesn't matter, or if it matters ECB can print money to make whole the minor shortfall of few billions. It is not like anybody cares what Bank of Japan balance sheet looks like as regards to equity.
I would like to see links here to ECB rules if there is disagremeenent on. This paper states there is no ECB loss/recapitalisation agreement in place:
http://www.cepr.org/pubs/PolicyInsights/PolicyInsight24.pdf
A key quote there:
"If it is to be the euro area national Treasuries that will provide fiscal back-up for the ECB, in what proportions
will they share the fiscal burden of recapitalising the ECB, should the need arise?
There is one readily available key for distributing the fiscal burden of recapitalising the ECB if in the future
its balance sheet is impaired as a result of lender of last resort operations or market maker of last resort actions
vis-à-vis EU-banks. This would be for each euro areaMember State national Treasury to pay a share of the
bail-out costs equal to the share of its NCB in the totalshare capital of the ECB, divided by the sum of the
shares of all euro area NCBs in the total share capital of the ECB. Other formulae can be thought of, but it
would be wise to have something agreed before the first EU Bank incorporated under EU statute law pops up and goes belly-up"
What you've just stated is equivalent to claiming the ECB has insufficient means to make good on its liabilities, the chief one of which is the euro. I agree. Whether they actually recognize this fact w/honest marks is an important but secondary consideration. Financial gravity asserts its inexorable pull on all players, whether they choose to recognize it or not.
Take a seat, Pete, the ECB will never mark to market and therefore THERE WILL BE NO CAPITAL CALL - you shld know this - Dood
Nothing is over. Nothing. You just don't turn it off. It wasnt my war. You asked me I didnt ask you.... :-)
Nothing is over! Nothing! You just don't turn it off! Nothing is over until I say it is!
*** BREAKING NEWS ***
We interrupt your regular programming [pun intended!] to bring you this important development in the fight against global central planning ... aka the NWO.
Alternative media coverage of the Vatican's call for global economic central planning has been pulled!!
On Monday, the world's oldest, largest and richest multinational corporation--the Vatican--released this globalist blockbuster: (links*: Reuters; Vatican Radio)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/24/idUS264245887020111024
http://www.radiovaticana.org/en1/Articolo.asp?c=532223
Though this release was originally covered by HuffPost, Drudge and Infowars without comment (but not by ZH!?!), both Matt Drudge and "anti-globalist" Alex Jones have since pulled this important globalist story from their home pages!! ... And the HuffPost is no longer covering it on their home page either, or even under either Politics or Business, but has buried it under "Life & Style", sub-topic "Religion"!!!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/24/vatican-economic-reform-radical_n_1028061.html
It seems to me that some Cardinal in the Vatican prematurely let the cat out of the bag and that the word has gone out from the masters to catch it and bury it at the back of the garden as quickly as possible!
FFS!! Those [apparently very few] of us who are opposed to global central planning by the NWO are on our own now!!
We apologise for the interruption and return you to your 'divide & conquer' programming....
Oh ... and PS: ... SECEDE NOW!!
--------------
*Note: Even Vatican Radio's original release (article #531752) has been pulled and replaced by this revised one (article #532223). http://www.radiovaticana.org/en1/Articolo.asp?c=532223
DULCINIANS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!!!!!!
LoL. Yes, nice. Take the focus off the lizard people, the Pope is actually the head of AIPAC.
http://lizards.com/2sgaw5ez6y-t.jpg
PS. You sure do live up to your tag! Cute. "First they ridicule you,...." (PsyOps 101)
http://www.infowars.com/vatican-calls-for-central-world-bank/
There. Found it for you :)
Thanks, but I'd already read it yesterday. Can you also post a link to where he discusses it on air and expresses his "outrage" along with his other "anti-globalist" rants?
The Vatican has one thing correct in their statement ... we do suffer greatly from idolatry of the market. As for their "global central bank," they can take that idea and shove it where the sun don't shine.
The Vatican might be on to something, seeing how well
central planing is working out for Europe. The Vatican has not been able
to come up with a credible plan to rid its organization of child molestors
for nearly 2000 years. So what makes them think they can come up with
a plan to solve the worlds' financial crises? Like the politicians in Washington,
the Vatican is out of touch with the real world. If there was any real justice in
the world, the Catholic Church's central leadership should be tried for crimes
against humanity for their role in the global coverup of sex crimes involving
children.
hm
and what about all these muftis and rabbis sodoming boys around the world ?
Are you including members of the Sanhedrin who kept adolescent wards of the Temple in their homes and found to be impregnated at puberty around 7-5 BC ?
Good spot. So whats next ? Whats the agenda? One currency? Would that benefit tptb? What do the vatican want -control/power. How do they get that? Bomb more brown people? Cause a global meltdown to starve out the threat? and force their flock to remember who provides the fish and bread? As usual , more questions than answers.
There are so many ways to divide and conquer now , tptb have got it made. Theyre loving this.
The 'hat tip' goes to "Ahmeexnal" ... if he hadn't posted this on Monday, I wouldn't have even known about it!
The agenda is "Problem. Reaction. Solution" or, as Hegel put it "Thesis. Anti-thesis. Synthesis". Create a problem (FED bailouts; European indecision), promote a reaction (#OWS; public outrage), then offer a [seemingly rational] solution (Global Central Bank; One World Government).
The solution that is put forward is totally pre-planned before the problem is deliberately created. It's all scripted and stage-managed.
The Vatican is just one organ of TPTB ... a very large organ with hundreds of thousands of priests, academics and 'knights' plus 2 billion adherents -- particularly concentrated in Southern Europe (the PIIS of the PIIGS) and Latin America (from Mexico to Tierra del Fuego). It is now controlled by the Jesuits (the Jesuits and the clergy have been fighting each other for centuries over control of the Vatican, but the Jesuits have been in continuous control now since before WWI).
So "yes", those who control the Vatican (the Jesuits and their brothers-in-Lucifer Labor Zionists, the Sabbateans) do wish to use the Vatican to control the serfs through propaganda and "the infallible [sic] authority of the Pope" ... but the One World Government would be the centre of executive power. The priests always work in concert with the rulers: the rulers manage the aristocracy and the priests manage the serfs.
I disagree. Central planners always fuck things up. I think that Europe has blown up prematurely for them (ie. prior to the final shutdown of the US) and that they are now scrambling to keep the EU together at the moment. IMO, they originally wanted to expand the EU to include the former-Soviet East European states and the North African states, but Gaddafi's resistance pushed their schedule and global acceptance out of whack.
So, I don't think they're loving this at all at the moment! And if any European or US states were to secede, then their plans would be shot to ribbons ... they'd have to resort to fascist force rather than political cunning to "herd the cats" -- and that could cause dangerous blowback. :)
PS. SECEDE NOW!! (If you can't get your state to do it, then just do it personally).
The Vatican?
How many divisions do they have?
--- J. Stalin
LOL. The Jesuit-trained crypto-Roman Catholic Joseph Djugashvili (“Son of Steel”) Stalin (“Man of Steel”), certainly would have known. His 'job' was to eradicate the 'heretic' Orthodox Church from Russia ... at which he appears to have been quite efficient - certainly more efficient than he was at feeding the Russians or developing their infrastructure. ;)
So it's the Jesuits who pull Jones's strings after all. I held out (some)hope that he was the real deal.
Yep. As I said in another thread earlier today (while the story was still running, but without any commentary from Alex or his editors), he's blown his cover with this one!
It seems that everyone is a god damned double agent anymore, so I'll still listen to him. He's still a hell of a lot better than pretty much any other radio talking head. Something started to smell fishy to me after he kept on having Steve Pieczenik come on his show after he professed how much he loved Don Papa Bush as POTUS. The irony here is that it's from listening to Jones and a couple of other sources that got me to the point where I can understand how some of these fucks think and operate, and the ability to recognize the mechanisms that they use to sway opinion and to disseminate (mis/dis)information.
Like you, I learned a lot from AJ and consider most of his information to be accurate and helpful. But after finding out about his true background, and also earlier considering this perspective from Alan Watt, I found it impossible to continue to listen to AJ's rants and obvious hiding of the real puppet-masters.
I do still check his website occasionally and also listen to the occasional interview to see how he and his guest handle a particular topic.
Watt hosts perhaps my favorite radio show. I'm sure that there's more to him than meets the all seeing eye as well. Same with Jeff Rense. All of them have some fantastic information, but each one has certain topics that never seem to be explored very deeply on their respective shows. Between those three and old William Cooper broadcasts, along with my daily dose of ZH and the Daily Bell, and the follow up research on the topics they cover, I've received an education that's more relevant than any BA degree.
Good thing I printed and saved this,
Vatican Calls for Global Oversight of the Economy
By ELISABETTA POVOLEDO
Published: October 24, 2011
o
VATICAN CITY — The Vatican called on Monday for an overhaul of the world’s financial systems, and once again proposed the establishment of a supranational authority to oversee the global economy, saying it was needed to bring more democratic and ethical principles to a marketplace run amok.
Connect With Us on Twitter
Follow @nytimesworld for international breaking news and headlines.
In a report issued by the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, the Vatican argued that “politics — which is responsible for the common good” must be given primacy over the economy and finance, and that existing multinational institutions like the International Monetary Fund have not been responding adequately to global economic problems.
Update: article is on Alex Jones web site just bumped down, not that I go there much ;)
Here is an invaluable tool for my fellow ZH crew. These people have our backs.
http://www.archive.org/web/web.php
My thinking, up until very recently, was that this "collapse" was just part of the script.
I don't think that anymore.
The Vatican is "telling" great weakness with this position in the media; they are clearly fucked if Europe blows up.
I really thought the real (i.e. final) crash would be after the next election, not before it. This is a huge X factor in political plans, to fuck the serfs over a barrel before they get to choose a House, part of a Senate, and a President.
Not to be US centric, but we are the worlds policeman and such things have to factor into real decision making (from an elite perspective).
Wow, just fucking wow.
And thanks for sharing. I got the word out to my five readers. :-)
Regards,
Cooter
Yes crazycooter, something like that; or the Vat is trying, like the ratings agencies last week, to jump ahead of the parade before the shitbag blows up.
Who doesn't despise the lamprey banking system and its handlicking attendants (Sarkozy, Merkel, Obama, et al.).
More EU problems will begin to weigh heavily once again on equities. - After the correction for the SPX today, price action should push higher for the next several days. The DX continues to look bearish in the short term as the EURUSD is pointing higher with equities. More "risk on" ahead. http://bit.ly/uFJB9g
Wouldn't count on it. AUD seems to be decoupling from the EUR. That it not 'risk on'. To soon to really call it but I've been out of the EUR for the past month and am short AUD. It's a cheaper trade than EUR and will fall victim to USD strength whether via EUR going soft or global slowdown. My reasoning is that AUD drops regardless of EUR shenanigans.
Time will tell.
I agree, looks like the market is going risk averse and the AUD is a good gauge. Markets look thin right across the board.
AUD was smashed by lower than expectation inflation figures and the consequent higher likelihood of a rate cut next week. Its big moves will be on those factors for a while.
What's interesting right now is how the EUR is staying strong against the USD, GBP etc. My guess is that non-Europeans are finally starting to work out that the EZ is less prepared to print than its counterparts.
Why would there be an end-game? Other than wishful thinking can you explain what would trigger such an event instead of continued postponement of the end?
Because at some point you have to have capital and not just a bunch of paper.
Sure, but what makes that point this week? I'm sure a minimal amount of capital can be provided, accounting rules fudged to prevent mark-to-market, etc. for a very long time. After all, Greek current deficit is peanuts when spread across Europe's 500mm peeps.
It looks like the prisoner's dilemma is breaking down. TPTB aren't a homogenous unit, they just use each other to perpetuate the ponzi. The weak links have cracked so now their only option is to toss each other under the bus and hope to come out the least unscathed. The only reason the ponzi works is because enough of these groups conspire to make it work. You can only flip paper back in forth so long as people with capital will trade that capital for paper.
This has been said for years. When is the tipping point?
ECB has a Western Syndicate style Capital Call Arrangement?
You have got to be kidding me!
Those fuckers are absolutely batshit unbelievably crazy.
Deutscheland! You best be a printing a whole bunch of new D-Marks and be getting' ready to walk the tab.
That is just down right irresponsible.
You got some old timers to hang out to dry.
Everybody else says "No" and you own it.
Musical Chairs.
Best just walk the game.
For shit sake, there is No Way Out!
(maniacal laughter)
With the caveat, of couse, there is no way out for any of us!
When it blows, its going to bring it all down.
But the oil can still be pumped from the ground, dams will still generate electricity, farms will still be growing crops in the sun. Humans will carry on, just not so many ...
Regards,
Cooter
Listened to Peter on Bloomberg Radio this afternoon on the way home from work. Good interview.
Is this the first domino? I mean we've been waiting for the situation to start going horizontal for months now.
All it's going to take as a massive write-down of Greek debt. "Haircut" my ass. The economic gurus of Europe have been throwing around numbers like 50% and 60%. That's not a "haircut" in the least. It's more like a disemboweling. Enough to trigger CDS contracts and demolish many major banks across Europe.
Yup, Greece is itsy bitsy, but ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XM2TbddOhN0
... watch those counterparties go up in flames!
Oops!
Regards,
Cooter
Breaking: ex-Goldman Sachs director surrendering to FBI. Don't know the reason yet.
He's Goldman's latest Campaign Contribution.
Trial will last until Jan 18, 2013. Conviction and sentencing to come down 36 hours before a Presidential Pardon by an exiting Barry.
Just sayin'...
IF you have a FT account, may I suggest everyone read this story:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/dccc8d98-ff03-11e0-9b2f-00144feabdc0.html
Bankers fear political moves will kill off CDSBecause if they do kill CDS for the hedge funds and banksters with a "non default default" and do not pay out, this will be akin to the portfolio insurance unwind in 1987.
I don't think that 20th '5-Hour Energy' is going to help any of these people.
(and would give Tyler's left nut to be a fly on the wall of these meetings)
I looked carefully, and there is no mention of what the Dutch actually said. Not winning for Peter, not winning for Tyler.
Well, that would be because there was no actual exchange of words.
Queen Beatrix flipped Merkel off.
End of story.
And end of the euro.
Beatrix is definitely in on the NWO scam (whereas Merkel is just an elected functionary). I suspect Beatrix was showing her irritation with Merkel's obstinacy on behalf of the German people (read: courts and political factions). Then again, I could be wrong....
I would not count on the Dutch being the first to pick up their bucket and spade and change play pens.
I don't speak dutch
i think the dutch said...
"
I don't want to talk to you no more, you empty headed animalfood trough whopper! I fart in your general direction! You mother
was a hamster and your father smelt of eldeberries.
"
or something like that....
More importantly what kind of sparrow? hmmm..
A coconut?
Snarkozie called Fraulein Merkel an Inflated Truffle Whore.
Which wasn't nice.
Right after she called him an Insecure Small Penis with a Napoleonic Complex.
(2 points to the Fraulein for the double entendre)
And Silvio "Bunga Bunga" said thet he was offended by the language so he was gonna go back home to Rome to his 12 year old Libyan sex slave for a day or two, and that he really missed Gaddafi, and blamed Snarko for the French starting the shitstorm on his party pal.
Dutch finance minister Jan Kees de Jager today merely said that 'Italians got to do more' and 'we won't accept the 21% PSI'. That's it. Kinda sad that Peter Tchir implies more than there really is and shame on Zerohedge for not doing some very basic level of fact checking.
Not worth the words...
Europeans should demand a referendum in every country on whether to liberate themselves from the tyranny of the bankster puppets and breakup Euroland.
By dragging this on so long they are in effect killing the economy drip by daily drip. An endless barrage of negativity and shown in the Consumer Conf No.s .Sheep like to herd and shop, now they are seperated and running scared.. .baah..
Hansel and Gretel : 'Verdammt, Angela, soll das ein Witz sein?'
Timmuh: No problemo, we have your back. We are exceptional.
Think there is no FED market manipulation? Just look at the positive ES tonight. Unreal
Euro is still over 1.39
ES still hanging tough over the 50-day
Looks like the Europe crisis is over.
Yes, all over, . Europe is fine..did you see FSLR,NFLX,AMZN....now those are haircuts...
Yes, I'm sure of it. The Europe crisis is over. All that toxic debt? Forget about it, the crisis is over. The CDS chain reaction to a Greek default? Ignore it and it will go away. The crisis is over because the Euro is still over 1.39. Sleep tight, brighter days lie ahead.
Oh, and don't forget to BTFD on Netflix.
Was it Robo who was going all banana shit over NetFlix a while back? Going to infinity? Ah well, maybe he'll work that out before he takes on all the longs opposite Goldilock's new Euro shorts. He's a good little counter-party.
Robo recommending a stock is like the kiss of death.
What is he peddling now so I can go short and earn some toilet paper?
What, you did not hear? Chain linked CDS have been outlawed everyone is being refunded their premiums on those. Shorting Netflix is also outlawed have a nice evening..
Lets play Wheel of fortune , Robo :
Your letters are - D , G , A , O , U
_ O U A _ _
A
G _ A _ _ D O U _ _ _
And its a factual statememt.You have 20 seconds Robo. Clue is "look in the mirror or in your bathroom"
How do you have any money left to pay your internet bill?
What the f*ck do you smoke? The biggest sell off since Aug is a c-hair away. Europe is finished. There is NO way Italy will play ball...and 60% haircuts? That a grade A default = Greece.
This guy I know got Rosetta Stoned - that's when the shit's so good it has one speaking in different languages
... including off-planet and double-helix ones.
Sarkozy, Timmy, and Ben getting bitch slapped by Merkel and the Bundestag. Germans blocking Euro QE and will stop the ECB PIGS bond purchases. No one wants to pay for this and it would eventually have to be funded by QE money printing.
With Sarkozy calling Merkel a retarded truffle hog, nobody should be surprised by this.
I don't know why at the end of the day anyone believes Germany will risk everything, everything as in cueing David Tepper, to backstop Greece, then Italy, then Spain, then Portugal, etc. That would be akin to putting your balls in a vice while having Natilda the Hun, who turned into a man hater, cranking it down on them where pain hits new nadirs of morbid curiousity.
Look what happened to Greece, when over a year ago the yield was 7%, and they promised austerity....but times that by 10, with Italy, Spain, and ulitmately France, too. Any small shock to their economies or outright social unrest due to austerity and it's be game over for Germany. Who'd want to take that chance.
At the end of the day, the only way this works--kicking the can--it to get help from Uncle Sam and others, and given the political situation: good luck to that one as OWS multiples by 1000.
In other words, we're fucked. And it's only a matter of time now gentleman.
Embrace the doom.
They might be kickin the can to the meeting next month. But the G20 might get disrupted by scary protesterrists. That would be too comical.
Shut it all down, foch it.
'optimisations' I am correct that they are alluding to 'leverage' of the EFSF.
Finally!
Looking forward to Italy saying "Vaffanculo" to Germany and France in less than 48 hrs.
Merkel needs to slam Italy sideways if she wants the 60% writedown on the PIIGS junk
BTW, I'd like to publicly thank all you clueless leaders of Europe for bailing out my portfolio positions these last few days. Late September was tough on bonds and PM's when the rest of the world seemed to actually think that you had your shit together opposite a soluble problem, to neither of which I'd subscribed. Y'all can make one very skittish at times, which you really don't want to do. Hurts the old credibility, so to speak. But all's on track as anticipated in spite of the scare so, all's forgiven.
Thank you.
God Bless You.
May You Live Long and Remain at Your Helms Forever.
Many words, all meaning the same thing: Europe's broke.
It's hard to pay for things when yr broke. I know, I've been there.
The simplest solution would be for individual European countries to start issuing -- or borrowing -- their own currencies to use within their own countries. They could keep the euro as a reserve currency. The amounts of legacy debt that individual countries could manage would be bought back with the local currencies, the rest locked away in the EFSF deep freeze. After a stringent energy conservation plan is put into place the debts can be restructured a bit at a time. There is a lot of leeway when €400bn isn't going overseas every year for no good reason.
Another solution is for ECB to monetize coupon spreads. How much debt does Italy have to roll over next year? €120bn? What's the coupon? 5.5% - 10 yr? Why not Italy pay 2% and the ECB lend what's needed to pay the rest? Debt monetization on the cheap! The EU's could couple this with a crackdown on bank crooks. A bank here, a bank there and after 6 months the desire of bankers to play rate games is diminished. Bankers can raise interest rates as Bill Clinton found out to his dismay, by (real) government leaders can chop bankers' heads off with a guillotine.
I understand the head is aware of what's going on post-chop. "How do ya like the rate now, sucker?"
What will happen instead? Nothing. Arguing. Denial of any energy problems. Blame game. Bankruptcy.
After that it gets interesting.
FUCK THE VATICAN.
does this mean another holy war?
No, it means more sex with the underage altar boys.
The groundwork has already been laid for the Germans to leave the Euro zone. http://www.pippamalmgren.com/77.html
If the ECB keeps printing money to buy bonds, it will happen. The EFSF is basically dead on arrival as the fund is far shorter than what is necessary to even shore up Greece!!!
Just waiting for the ball to drop.
+1
Plus the ones that don't anymore, as the ECB obligations have no stepping-out mechanism comparable to the EFSF's. So either Ireland, Spain and Portugal would be stuck with a "surprise" ECB contribution at just this inconvenient time, or the core would have to agree to give them a free ride. It would be quite a spectacle either way. And the same applies to Italy...
Not that I'm certain that Europe will go the collateral-call route. It seems plausible that instead they'll either print away the loss, or kick the can once more by not imposing any loss on the ECB even if that makes the Greek haircut deeply insufficient.
Just downloaded and watched Margin Call.
A bit superficial Wall St. tale but still worth watching.
The solution to Europe is simple: The Vatican is doing so well that if they franchised it and opened up a few in Greece, more in Italy, some in Spain, and possibly even France that they could very well close their fiscal gaps in a big way as they will find a whole new revenue stream from the massive tourism windfalls.
Robo-Gayder?
HoboTrader
no one will stand up and leave this party...they will kick the can down the road til they all fall off the edge of the cliff.
if one dies they all die so they will kick kick kick.....
it will never fall off the cliff no matter how much they scream - eventually it will rest at the horizons' time-line, where parallel lines eventually meet, and paradoxically the shortest distance between two points is a curve, with the quasi enigma that there is no such thing as a straight line says emphatically the ultimate chaos we venture into daily is but a universal illusion of a classic circle jerk - ironically until the many meld into one - which could be as simple as flipping a card or rolling snake-eyes - where no one dies except through attrition,... with the only certainty of randomness is no one wins in the end?
cheers
They can kick the can for years yet.
Time to downgrade Germany!