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Behind 'The Iksil Trade' - IG9 Tranches Explained

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors,

There is a lot of talk about IG9 these days.  I think the story has a lot more to do with tranches than with outright selling of the index.

IG9 10 year is a 125 name, equally weighted CDS index that matures on December 20, 2017.

The index has had 4 defaults, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Wamu, and CIT.  The recoveries were high for all 4 of them.  I am told the total cumulative loss from these 4 Credit Events was 0.6%.  We will use that number for simplicity.

IG9 is the last CDX index that had an active tranche market.  It was the “on the run” index at the time of Lehman, and since then, the synthetic CDO business has never truly recovered and IG9 has remained the benchmark for synthetic CDO’s and tranches. [largely legacy positions, but probably a warning sign to regulators, that although the real market has moved on to IG1a, the model driven market remains stuck managing massive books of trades and hedges, based on an index that was created 5 years ago]

So what was once a 3%-7% tranche is now roughly a 2.4% - 6.4% tranche.

So if you sell protection on this tranche, you need further cumulative defaults of 2.4% before you make any payments, and then you make payments until 6.4% of the notional has had losses.  If there is a 0% recovery on each default, you could have 3 defaults before having to make any payment (each name is 1/125 or 0.8%).  If recovery was 40% then you have no payments until the 6th default.

We will come back to look at the names and assess how likely that is.

The big question is, what do you get paid on this tranche?  20 points up-front and 500 bps running.  So if you sell $1 billion of this tranche, you receive $200 million up front and $50 million per annum.  In a relatively tight credit spread environment, this is a lot of money.  If you use the upfront payment to “defease” losses, the $1 billion of exposure has a maximum loss of $800 million, and would require  4 defaults at 0% recovery before actually having a loss, and more realistically, would only take a loss on the 8th default with a 40% recovery.  Suddenly the trade seems less scary, as least to me.

But how do people come up with a number of a “100 billion”?  That comes down to “deltas”.  The delta on this tranche is about 7.5 times.  So if someone wanted to take this risk, without delta (just sell the tranche and not have a “correlation” bet), every $1 billion would create $7.5 billion of index trading.

You could sell this “no delta” and the buyer would pay you for the tranche, but then have to go and sell 7.5 times that amount of index out to the market so they could manage their “correlation” risk – a giant model based book.  Some dealers are very good at tranches, but are weak at trading the underlying index.  In those cases, you might sell the tranche “with delta” and sell the index position yourself because you can get better execution that way.  So you sell the tranche and buy 7.5 times the index from the correlation desk (the with delta trade).  Then you sell the straight index into the market.  It would explain why you are seen as a seller of index when the real trade is actually being a seller of the tranche.

So who knows what exactly is going on, but I think selling tranches without delta explains far more than just selling the index.

The risk/reward of selling the tranches is very interesting and fits a bank potentially well

  • No payments until several more defaults – so you are senior
  • The big up-front payment covers at least one more default
  • The spread is the same as you earn on CDS that references junk bonds
  • Your exposure is capped, your tranche may model up as “7.5 times” that amount of index, but you have a capped exposure, much smaller than that

So what names or companies are you exposed to.

Of the 121 names, there are two “weird” ones that no longer have any debt.  Countrywide, and IAC/InterActiveCorp.   Countrywide, for all its problems, has no debt and was fully guaranteed by BAC.

The most dangerous names are:  Radian, MBIA, Spint, I-Star, and RR Donnelley.  These are the only names that trade with a spread above 500 running.  So of the 121 names, only 5 names trade wider than the 500 running that is earned on the tranche.  These are the prime default candidates.  If you had a 40% recovery on average, and all 5 names defaulted, the seller of the tranche would not yet have lost money.  Radian and MBIA are the most likely to default, based on spread, and even those don’t trade at levels of imminent default.

After these 5 names, you wind up with ILFC, Jones, Liz Clairborne, JC Penney, as the only names trading about 400 bps in CDS.  Levels that are a far cry from default.

Look at the names, but this risk in tranche format is far more interesting, in my opinion, rather than just selling the index.  Selling the index outright in $75 billion would expose you to each and every name, have losses on day 1.

Why might the trade make sense? or what could it be hedging?

  • Loan demand is down as corporations rely on the bond markets and this may be a more attractive way for JPM to maintain net interest margins in their corporate business, rather than buying bonds in the secondary market
  • Jamie Dimon is very public that he thinks we are near the bottom of the housing market and “all signs are green” so putting on investment grade corporate risk makes perfect sense
  • They may be short high yield, they are starting to dominate the new issue market, so they may have shorts on that, and it may not be co-incidental that they are going long a product that pays 500 bps running, which would cover the cost of HY shorts, which also pay 500 running in CDS, and may even explain why HY CDS spreads have been “decompressing” in what has generally been a good environment for credit
  • Choosing tranches and derivatives as a way to take exposure may be a direct result of the latest stress tests from the Fed, it is possible that those stress tests force banks to take risk in non-traditional formats to minimize the impact of stress tests

In the end, it is all speculation, what, if any trade they have on, but I think this explanation is far less scary, and in fact should encourage holders of JPM that their bank is well positioned to take advantage of opportunities they see in the market and potentially remain a step ahead of the competition.

 


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Tue, 04/10/2012 - 09:48 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

 

"Behind 'The Iksil Trade' - IG9 Tranches Explained"

After scanning this article, the headline struck me as more than a little Orwellian. 

Anybody else feel that? Do the guys who designed these Frankenstein monsters even understand how they work, and what the risks really are?

Holy fuck.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Any problems, and we'll just give the tranche a sed-a-give.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment Bryan
Bryan's picture

Wait, that doesn't sound abnormal to me.  What hump?

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 09:55 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They understand how they work all too well. They deliver maximum profits then when they imoplode they get pawned of on some poor unsuspecting dupe, usually the U.S. taxpayer.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

My interest is in why this hit the news in the first place. If I understand correctly these positions are fairly opaque so how did this become common knowledge? Some assistant leaked it to the National Inquirer? Hardly. More likely it was planted by JPM for some manipulation of perceptions, maybe to plant an angst producing story, have the S&P hit the 50dma (0.1% away right now), story gets explained away and the all clear whistle goes off and all the little bears lose their shorts. Then again I can come up with a conspiracy explaination for why the Easter Bunny scatters eggs around each year.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 21:34 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Does yer "explaination" involve alien lizard eggs? :>D

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:11 | Link to Comment Palamedes
Palamedes's picture

The story was broken by the good old folks over at Bloomberg who were tipped off by some hedgies the other side of the trade.. They took it because they thought JPM distorted the price and thus want to profit when it gets unwound.. My guess is they finally realized they were gonna lose some money on it and are trying to pull out all stops against JPM. Throw a TBTF comment or two in there, and you have some politicians scaring the crap out of (read not giving two shits) Jamie fucking Dimon...  Oh and fyi, the easter bunny lays eggs for poor unsuspecting kids to fund rocket launchers used in WW2... Lucky kids..

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So this is bullish for Apple?

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment ArsoN
ArsoN's picture

awesome.  thanks.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment barwar
barwar's picture

Peter - amazing breakdown of a very complex product.  Well done and thanks.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 09:52 | Link to Comment Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

'defease'? That's a word??

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Dimon thinks we are near the housing bottom? He is either a fool or a liar or needs to get out of Manhattan more often.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Well he is a banker so my guess he is a liar.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment citta vritti
citta vritti's picture

glad to know JPM's out there making money. for a moment I thought the tranche was Ice9 of Vonnegut fame, and I was worried. And for sure, I appreciate this insider's view from Peter Tchir explaining some of the many possible trades underlying the headline news. Deep waters indeed. Come to think of it, just ripe for a little Ice Nine. 

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment godzila
godzila's picture

Very interresting post - thanks !

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Isn't the bigger question, "why do we all have to be digging so hard for the truth about this deal?". JPM is a public company. I would bet that over 90% of the people on this blog own shares of JPM, either directly or though funds, retirement plans, etc. which they participate in.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 12:30 | Link to Comment tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

Feeling' a bit like a coordinated p/r campaign designed to usher in Volcker.

www.tradewithdave.com

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 13:20 | Link to Comment covert
covert's picture

the land market hasn't bottomed out yet.
http://expose2.wordpress.com

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 16:55 | Link to Comment Mo Bius
Mo Bius's picture

HERE - the full dirt on Dimon, Iksil, the Fed, UBS, the London LIFE Exchange, Marc (Mossad) Rich and Glencore:

 

http://www.myspace.com/tom_heneghan_intel/blog

Quote:

   P.S. We can also divulge that it was Bruno Iksil using JPMorgan's custodial account that received the $1.8 BILLION in laundered MF Global customer segregated accounts that was used to meet a margin call created by Bruno Iksil and Jamie Dimon.

and:

   P.P.S. We can now also reveal that JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and the aforementioned terrorist banks are involved in the illegal electronic rerouting of trades made by their customers (including hedge funds) with the use of unregistered email addresses tied to Global Solutions Management and JPMorgan's custodial account, both headquartered in London, England.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!