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Beige Book Not Nearly Red Enough For Imminent QE

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The Fed's Beige Book was just released and for those looking for cliff-dropping and panic-driven views of the plunge in the economy, we are sorry. The Beige Book was, well, beige. Some headlines, via Bloomberg:

  • *FED SAW WEAKER U.S. MANUFACTURING, RETAIL SPENDING LAST MONTH
  • *FED SAYS LOAN DEMAND `GREW MODESTLY' IN MOST DISTRICTS
  • *FED SAYS MANUFACTURING EXPANDED `SLOWLY' IN MOST DISTRICTS
  • *FED: HOUSING MARKET REPORTS `LARGELY POSITIVE'
  • *FED SAYS DISTRICTS' BUSINESS CONTACTS `CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC'

The word-cloud highlights the 'continued activity' though does note 'demand pressures', 'slowed markets' and 'sales conditions'. Maybe we will just muddle through with our lower earnings and weaker outlooks but never quite bad enough to get Ben off the bench.

Full report here (pdf)

Beigebook_20120718

 

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Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:12 | 2629182 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No NEW QE we're all so desperate for? No problem....lets just add a few % more to stock indexes!

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:24 | 2629230 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

should be good for another 15 SPX pts...just like Schumer requested.  

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:46 | 2629370 magpie
magpie's picture

Wait a minute...that means the market isn't being positioned against me...which means you can actually short again ?

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 15:05 | 2629468 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

You are kidding yourself if you think they will not add QE. What's hard to say at this point is how much is priced in.

Apple is lower today. In light of earnings coming up on the 24th, I think buying continues, perhaps all the way to the Fed's meeting and maybe beyond. Should be a doozy. Keep your powder dry.

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:24 | 2629247 ACP
ACP's picture

...hence the false flag.

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:49 | 2629388 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

"Quick, we need another billion VXX creation units"

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:12 | 2629183 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

im sure that will be good for a SPX 1400 print.. Bullish bitchez!

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:13 | 2629186 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

"The Fed's Beige Book was just released and for those looking for cliff-dropping and panic-driven views of the plunge in the economy, we are sorry."

Now that's being disingenuous. The entire site is dedicated to the-end-is-near headlines and stories. Don't be sorry it's not happening (according to people who have been wrong before).

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 09:11 | 2631392 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

You'll invariably be junked for pointing out the obvious.

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:14 | 2629190 Stuart
Stuart's picture

am so sick and tired of the whole QE or no QE debate.....

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:20 | 2629226 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

the sad part is it has/is/was driving the entire market(or what is left of it). think of the riches our members of Congress/GS will make when they front run the QE3 annoncement

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:20 | 2629229 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

The QE3 debate has been going on here since spring of 2011, before QE2 ended. It must be a click generator or something. Not a day goes by that we don't have about 5 posts with QE in the headline.

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:47 | 2629339 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

I just clicked your post. Thats $5 for you. Now go buy a cookie. My treat

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:26 | 2629253 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Simply because the discussion moves the market more than any other topic.  It shouldn't even be a topic, but now Ben owns this market.  Get to work, Mr. Chairman!

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:31 | 2629271 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Bro, QE is all there is.

Don't tell me you think markets are absolutely beyond broken and merely a psychological matrix literally hinging on utterings of fractional reserve bank monkeyhammering of what used to be 'normal mechanisms and flow', and that you, like so many genuinely intelligent people (not having high ranking best friends forever inside the Federal Reserve-less non-Bank of New York or Treaury) are sitting out until anything approximating actual, true markets- driven by organic supply/demand and real FMV- returns?

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:14 | 2629193 DavidC
DavidC's picture

So, on the expectation of QE because things are bad, the market goes up, but because things aren't so bad and there is no immediate need for QE the market will go up - have I got that correct?

DavidC

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:15 | 2629198 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

"activity"

 

yeah..fucking the middle class up the ass for years is an "activity", isn't it?

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:17 | 2629204 HellZero
HellZero's picture

Bad data, more qe, buy stocks. Good data, well everything is fine, so buy stocks.
Just by stocks I suppose

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:19 | 2629209 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

*FED SAYS IRAN LIKELY TO BLAME FOR SLOWER THAN EXPECTED RECOVERY'

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:17 | 2629211 booboo
booboo's picture

FED SAYS TIN SHACK CONSTRUCTION BY PRAWNS IN DISTRICT 9 GREW AT A RECORD PACE.

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:17 | 2629212 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Someone nailed it here the other day: it will come too late for it to matter.

Haha

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:18 | 2629216 AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

Bernanke has been yammering for the last couple of days, do people really think the Beige book would change anything.  He likely knew of the data before climbing onto his yammer'in soapbox.

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:20 | 2629224 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I have said it a dozen times here. NO QE until the markets dump. And they better do it soon because if it is much past August just watch the politicians burn Bernank at the stake. The DOW is near 13,000, spoos not far from 1,400, how the fuck can you print more without starting a revolution. The sheeples look at the averages, not stocks. Not gonna happen. And we just keep rowing, further out to sea, keep rowing, looking for that island that was promised us. Just....keep.....rowing.

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:21 | 2629232 Deep79
Deep79's picture

QE3 is all talk. That is it. It will get launched if we are in a panic or if SP is getting near 1000.

The FED can jawbone all it want, but it is scared that if it launches QE3 and we sell off, then officailly game over. The maket would have lost all confidence that "FED will save us all", and we coulod literlly crash to 600 on SP

They will talk and talk and talk QE3, but it will not get launched til panic hits so it might have some positve effect.

The fact that the market has played along the Fed fiddle and not tested them is really surprising, but test the FED it will, I have no doubt about it.

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:23 | 2629244 sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

"Cautiously Optimistic". I love that one. Nothing screams sell side broker bullshit quite like "we are cautiously optimistic". Lap it up, bitchez

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:30 | 2629276 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

POMO auctions continue, OT2 continues, PDs continue to flip USTs back to the Fed T+1....

QE Continues....

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:36 | 2629305 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

The question is how long can Bernanke dangle the QE carrot on a stick in front of the jackass?   Indefinitely?

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:41 | 2629336 adr
adr's picture

Nat gas up 5% on the day, corn just going vertical like there is only going to be one ear left in the world.

Bernanke says there is no chance of a double dip but his actions are pretty much making it clear that 2007-2009 will look like the glory days of the 1950s.

 

People are going to see $6.95 for a 10oz box of corn flakes and freak out. Decent ground beef is already over $5 a pound.

 

If I hear the argument of, "beat rising prices by investing in the stock market", one more time I think I will go straight to NYC with a sniper rifle.

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:45 | 2629362 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

Ok...Look.

 

I'm gonna say it nice and simple like - for all you smart guys out there.

Mr. Ben aint' gonna do his magic trick while everyone is watching  -  he knows the trick is getting old, and he is just waiting for everyone to quite talking about QE before he can whip it out again.

So...if you love America...and everything we stand for these days (debt, wars, propaganda and mindless consumerism) please...do your part and tell anyone you hear talking about QE to shut the fuck up.

We all need to do our part to help Mr. Ben create the most shock and awe he can get for the next trillion or so he prints - it just won't have quite the same effect if everyone is expecting it....DUH.

 

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:50 | 2629391 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Unfortunately (from a bears point of view)  for today, this will just provide the little pullback the bulls wanted to refresh the ramp up.  More shorts to squeeeze.

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 14:52 | 2629397 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

The irony of it all is that every whisper of QE like today(Goldman oh yea it is on for Sept, no worries) just pushes prices up, which in turn just keeps pushing out the date for QE.

Will be far too late to matter. Too late for Ben and company to save the day.

GET TO WORK BEN.

Love Charles

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 15:39 | 2629589 Herbman
Herbman's picture

Beige book no es red book

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