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Of Belgium, Bonds, and Bullion

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Fear is quite obviously rearing its ugly head once again tonight and Belgium's ever-ready-for-an-understatement finance minister Reynders told La Tribune that the euro area may need as much as two years to overcome the sovereign debt crisis. We think it will all be over one way or another by then. As the US Treasury market opens for business tonight, yields are reflecting the fearful action seen in futures markets and dropping notably. The 2Y has just traded at its lowest yield ever at 15.12bps and the 10Y is trying its best to hold above yet another Maginot line at 2.0026%. Credit markets are also starting to crack wider as they open for trading with financials and non-financials notably wider already. While risk-assets in general are offered and safe-haven TSYs are bid, we are seeing PMs gently glide higher and note an interesting article in today's FT that asserts European Central Banks have resumed net-buying Gold after 20 years of consistent selling.

 

Reynders also added that any adoption of euro-bonds is several years away and would involve a loss of national sovereignty for individual states - perhaps hinting at the sacrifice to come, or more simply explaining that it will never happen. We have no strong comment other than to note his previous ventures forth into public comment with regards dismay at other nations not providing aid to Greece, and the lack of concern at major banks in his nation such as our favorite Dexia. We respectfully remind the minister of the EUR7.656bn principal due on September 28th (and EUR4.46bn interest for the rest of September).

The Treasury rally, and start of trading in European Sovereigns (mostly wider at this time), is extending losses in S&P futures to overnight lows and -23pts from Friday's close. 2s10s30s has dropped significantly but is relatively in-line (perhaps biased to the downside) with where S&P futures are trading currently.

 

In credit land, PIIGS 2Y yields are all higher except GRE (which is -23bps but that is simply noise given the levels at which it is trading). PTE is the worst at the current time +39bps (in cash). FRA and CHF bonds are 2-3bps lower in yield. However, it is CDS markets that are starting to crack again! Main is +5bps, XOver +14bps, and SUB & SEN Financials are 6-7bps wider. As we noted earlier, the front-end of the curves are underperforming with XOver 3Y +26bps at 725bps as we post.

 

The FT's note on gold provides some further color:

European central banks have added about 25,000 ounces, or 0.8 tonnes, of gold to their reserves in the year to date, according to data from the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

 

That compares with average sales of almost 400 tonnes a year since 1999, as they swapped their non-yielding and unfashionable bullion for sovereign debt. Global gold consumption stands at about 4,500 tonnes a year.

But for now, gold is chopping around in the $1820-1830 range for now - up about $10 from Friday's close - having dramatically outperformed the rest of the commodity complex (even as the dollar has strengthened in the last couple of days). Copper just hit a six-week low.

Charts: Bloomberg

While Gold and the Dollar climb, JPY (carry) crosses continue to slide south - led by KRWJPY now.


 

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Mon, 09/19/2011 - 03:14 | 1683782 Michael
Michael's picture

Speechless.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 05:44 | 1683844 janus
janus's picture

Mike, sorry to borrow your top spot...

Mr. Durden,

PLEASE post the spread as early as possible.  I'm strugglin with all this right now.  it's all fuckin crazy!!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:43 | 1683873 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

Is it any surprise to anyone on this site that European Central Banks are net buyers?

RobotTrader? Mathman? (I wish Methman still came on, he was really hilarious).

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 07:24 | 1683909 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Robot Trader is a really great asset here on ZH.

 

Just remember to always take the opposite side of whatever trade he is touting, and you will be a winner a clear majority of the time.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 07:47 | 1683941 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Robot banger is now a pile of scrap in a junkyard. Forgive the trading troll.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 08:14 | 1683985 mccoyspace
mccoyspace's picture

It is interesting to hear about the upcoming loss of sovereignty coming from the finance minister of Belgium. Belgium has been politically paralyzed for well over a year now because of deep seated ethnic and economic differences between the south and north of the country. It is the closest thing to the kind of synthetic, artificial over-State envisioned by the fiscal integration needed for Eurobonds -- the United States of Europe. Belgium is only trying to integrate 3 ethnicities and it is stuck. How is it supposed to work for the whole EU?

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 10:14 | 1684355 janus
janus's picture

my sentiment exactly.

belgium is not so much a nation as it is a lesson on arbitrary line drawing.  anyone wondering why belgium hasn't a 'real' govenment will have to keep wondering.

it's a strange place: not quite gallic, not quite germanic; not flanders; not, really, anything -- but the divisions are enough to keep them busy figuring out who should hate whom.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 03:16 | 1683783 DrStrangelove
DrStrangelove's picture

Holy crap there is a lot of money to be made right now. 

 

Be the LION.  Eat your prey.

 

http://nationaleconomist.blogspot.com/2011/09/uncle-mike-on-investment-h...

 

phucing awesome!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 03:17 | 1683785 DrStrangelove
DrStrangelove's picture

The channel line for the 30 treasury is as wider than the great plains.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 03:18 | 1683787 DrStrangelove
DrStrangelove's picture

CDS market on pins and needles much.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 03:24 | 1683788 Shineola
Shineola's picture

All forms of fiat are chicken shit.  You can't make chicken salad out of chicken shit.

It doesn't matter how much you make on the old fiat investments now.  That era is over.  The gvmt will tax your ass and sieze your assets.   

Silver bullion, Bitchez...    In a hole, in the ground.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 03:43 | 1683799 Cliff Claven Cheers
Cliff Claven Cheers's picture

I've always thought that interesting.  We spend all this engery mining and refining gold to only return it back into a hole in the ground.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 03:54 | 1683808 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Early morning sarcasm cliff?

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 03:57 | 1683812 Cliff Claven Cheers
Cliff Claven Cheers's picture

Easy man.  Think about the Buffet rule.  Buffet makes all of his income under capital gains.  So if he has a profit of 47 million he only pays 7 million in taxes.  So this BS rule for a tax on millionaires will accomplish nothing but catering to populism and an attempt to get re-elected.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 04:06 | 1683814 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

What I meant was those paper gains won't help an insurance/banking heavy investment fund when paper burns. Sounded like you were channelling some buffet jnr about holes and gold.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 04:12 | 1683819 GoldBricker
GoldBricker's picture

All is well, provided it's my hole.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:02 | 1683850 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Yeah, except it's MY hole in the ground.  Big difference.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 03:35 | 1683793 Who is John Galt
Who is John Galt's picture

I guess I picked the wrong week to quit smoking crack!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 04:11 | 1683817 GoldBricker
GoldBricker's picture

Until we're on the other side of whatever's coming, any week is the wrong week.

Remember the old market adage: "Dope will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no dope."

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 03:35 | 1683794 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

But somebody keeps buying Euros....

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 04:16 | 1683821 Western
Western's picture

Rothschild and Sons.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 04:38 | 1683824 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

While in the middle-east...

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000683802

Noble Energy starts Cyprus drilling in defiance of Turkey

US company Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL) has started drilling in Cyprus's Block 12 license. At the start of the month, the Turkish government threatened to send the Turkish navy to Cyprus if the latter continued with its plan to drill at the location. However, Noble Energy, a partner of Israeli companyDelek Group Ltd. (TASE: DLEKG), began drilling today, ten days before the end of the period stipulated in the agreement between it and the Cypriot authorities.

And in Tenessee : Hell yeah!

http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/constitution/9012-constitutional-sh...

Tennessee seeks to make federal law enforcement subordinate to the local sheriff

Constitutional Sheriff Bill Introduced in Tenn.

A new bill making its way through the Tennessee General Assembly states that a federal employee who is not designated as a Tennessee peace officer may not make an arrest or conduct a search and seizure in the Volunteer State without the express consent of the sheriff of the county in which the arrest, search, and seizure is to occur except under certain enumerated circumstances.

No vague request will satisfy the mandates of the measure were it to be enacted by the General Assembly of the Tennessee and signed into law by the governor. In fact, the bill explicitly requires that the permission request contain the following information:

(A) The name of the subject of the arrest, search, or seizure;
(B) A clear statement of probable cause for the arrest, search, or seizure or a federal arrest, search, or seizure warrant that contains a clear statement of probable cause;
seized;
(C) A description of the specific things to be searched for or
(D) A statement of the date and time that the arrest, search, or seizure is to occur; and
(E) The address or location where the intended arrest, search, or seizure will be attempted.

The serious and very powerful posture struck by the measure is undeniable. In Section 1, Paragraph (f), the proposed law sets forth the punishments to be imposed upon a federal officer failing to conform to the dictates thereof:

An arrest, search, or seizure or attempted arrest, search, or seizure in violation of subsection (a) is unlawful, and the persons involved shall be prosecuted by the county attorney for kidnapping if an arrest or attempted arrest occurred, for trespass if a search or attempted search occurred, for theft if a seizure or attempted seizure occurred, and for any applicable homicide offense if loss of life occurred. The persons involved shall also be charged with any other applicable criminal offense.

Furthermore, if any county attorney fails to timely and properly prosecute the federal agent accused of violating the law’s mandates regarding arrest, search, and seizure, that attorney is subject to recall by the voters and “to prosecution by the attorney general for official misconduct.”

 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 05:09 | 1683835 James T. Kirk
James T. Kirk's picture

Its about fucking time. This is so sweet I can hardly stand it. The only thing bullies understand is force. Now THIS is the kind of stuff Rick Perry should be doing in Texas, if he is so serious about getting the fedgov out of our collective asses as a future POTUS. I've said it before - local Sheriffs may be our only protection from the Beast.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:19 | 1683860 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Rick Perry works FOR them, not against them. He has no interest other than getting elected. Once in he will be the white Obama, much like Obama is the black Bush.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:32 | 1683867 James T. Kirk
James T. Kirk's picture

No argument there. I never trust anyone who looks and talks like a used care salesman. I was just being hypothetical, as in this is what he SHOULD be doing if he was really sincere about his alleged Christian / Tea Party-like "platform."

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 05:41 | 1683843 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Unfortunately, it sounds like a violation of FISA. FISC proceedings and FISA warrants are classified material.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:16 | 1683857 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Re . Unfortunately, blah blah blah blah blah

Save it for the judge. ... in Tennesse and good luck with that.

Somebody last night on the Ron Paul thread advised to start by taking back state houses. 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 09:41 | 1684222 DOT
DOT's picture

Just noticed (thanks to your post) the list above needs something.

 

(F)  A legally obtained warrant from a court of competant juridiction.

 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:18 | 1683858 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

The Constitution does not provide for a national police force. The F.B.I., B.A.T.F. etc have overstepped their Constitutional bounds by far. Time to rein them in.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:43 | 1683874 James T. Kirk
James T. Kirk's picture

Yeah. It "unfortunately" looks like some local Sheriff's will have to grow some balls.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 09:37 | 1684173 DOT
DOT's picture

Sherrifs have been licking the drips off the federal teat for years.

Who got them the dope dogs ?

Overtime pay for speed traps, cool new radios, two computers per squad, stimulus money to pump the pension fund, new weapon grants, Terry Stop authority, and a terrified populace subserviant to the most minor show of force.  If your Sherrif has been around for more than 5 years it is time for new blood. Like him or hate him, Joe Arpaio, is the poster child of federal funding subverting the ability of local political power to control the police power. 

 

The local Sherrifs have balls and the locals know it. 

 

Government = Phasers on kill

Locals= crewman #5

 

 

 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 04:58 | 1683831 saulysw
saulysw's picture

Question : Where does all of the "cash for gold" go??

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 05:40 | 1683842 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

The cash goes for crack.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:40 | 1683868 saulysw
saulysw's picture

Yes, ok, most likely. Let me rephrase. Where does all the "Cash for Gold" GOLD go? No really.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 05:05 | 1683834 Shineola
Shineola's picture

heat the fiat to  seventeen hundred degrees f, and you may gain understanding.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:24 | 1683862 Thorlyx
Thorlyx's picture

Fia

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:41 | 1683871 Kiwi Pete
Kiwi Pete's picture

Just heard on the BBC that UBS has upped their loss due to the "Rouge Trader" from a round $2bil to $2.3bil. Just WOW! An extra $300,000,000 down the toilet just like that. Anyone who has any confidence in that bank feel free to leave your money their. Everyone else just runnnnnnnnn!!

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