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Ben Bernanke Testifies On "The State Of The US Economy"
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify at House Budget Committee (Chairman Paul Ryan, R-WI) full committee hearing on "The State of the U.S. Economy." The highlight of today's hearing will be watching Bernanke face his nemesis runner up, Paul Ryan, who will surely grill Blackhawk Ben with questions that are far more intelligent than the press corps could come up with during the last FOMC canned remark presentation. Watch the full testimony live at C-Span after the jump.
Prepared remarks word cloud:
Full testimony:
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
The Economic Outlook and the Federal Budget Situation
Before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C.
February 2, 2012
Chairman Ryan, Vice Chairman Garrett, Ranking Member Van Hollen, and other members of the Committee, I appreciate this opportunity to discuss my views on the economic outlook, monetary policy, and the challenges facing federal fiscal policymakers.
The Economic Outlook
Over the past two and a half years, the U.S. economy has been gradually recovering from the recent deep recession. While conditions have certainly improved over this period, the pace of the recovery has been frustratingly slow, particularly from the perspective of the millions of workers who remain unemployed or underemployed. Moreover, the sluggish expansion has left the economy vulnerable to shocks. Indeed, last year, supply chain disruptions stemming from the earthquake in Japan, a surge in the prices of oil and other commodities, and spillovers from the European debt crisis risked derailing the recovery. Fortunately, over the past few months, indicators of spending, production, and job market activity have shown some signs of improvement; and, in economic projections just released, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants indicated that they expect somewhat stronger growth this year than in 2011. The outlook remains uncertain, however, and close monitoring of economic developments will remain necessary.
As is often the case, the ability and willingness of households to spend will be an important determinant of the pace at which the economy expands in coming quarters. Although real consumer spending rose moderately last quarter, households continue to face significant headwinds. Notably, real household income and wealth stagnated in 2011, and access to credit remained tight for many potential borrowers. Consumer sentiment has improved from the summer's depressed levels but remains at levels that are still quite low by historical standards.
Household spending will depend heavily on developments in the labor market. Overall, the jobs situation does appear to have improved modestly over the past year: Private payroll employment increased by about 160,000 jobs per month in 2011, the unemployment rate fell by about 1 percentage point, and new claims for unemployment insurance declined somewhat. Nevertheless, as shown by indicators like the rate of unemployment and the ratio of employment to population, we still have a long way to go before the labor market can be said to be operating normally. Particularly troubling is the unusually high level of long-term unemployment: More than 40 percent of the unemployed have been jobless for more than six months, roughly double the fraction during the economic expansion of the previous decade.
Uncertain job prospects, along with tight mortgage credit conditions, continue to hold back the demand for housing. Although low interest rates on conventional mortgages and the drop in home prices in recent years have greatly improved the affordability of housing, both residential sales and construction remain depressed. A persistent excess supply of vacant homes, largely stemming from foreclosures, is keeping downward pressure on prices and limiting the demand for new construction.
In contrast to the household sector, the business sector has been a relative bright spot in the current recovery. Manufacturing production has increased 15 percent since its trough, and capital spending by businesses has expanded briskly over the past two years, driven in part by the need to replace aging equipment and software. Moreover, many U.S. firms, notably in manufacturing but also in services, have benefited from strong demand from foreign markets over the past few years.
More recently, the pace of growth in business investment has slowed, likely reflecting concerns about both the domestic outlook and developments in Europe. However, there are signs that these concerns are abating somewhat. If business confidence continues to improve, U.S. firms should be well positioned to increase both capital spending and hiring: Larger businesses are still able to obtain credit at historically low interest rates, and corporate balance sheets are strong. And, though many smaller businesses continue to face difficulties in obtaining credit, surveys indicate that credit conditions have begun to improve modestly for those firms as well.
Globally, economic activity appears to be slowing, restrained in part by spillovers from fiscal and financial developments in Europe. The combination of high debt levels and weak growth prospects in a number of European countries has raised significant concerns about their fiscal situations, leading to substantial increases in sovereign borrowing costs, concerns about the health of European banks, and associated reductions in confidence and the availability of credit in the euro area. Resolving these problems will require concerted action on the part of European authorities. They are working hard to address their fiscal and financial challenges. Nonetheless, risks remain that developments in Europe or elsewhere may unfold unfavorably and could worsen economic prospects here at home. We are in frequent contact with European authorities, and we will continue to monitor the situation closely and take every available step to protect the U.S. financial system and the economy.
Let me now turn to a discussion of inflation. As we had anticipated, overall consumer price inflation moderated considerably over the course of 2011. In the first half of the year, a surge in the prices of gasoline and food--along with some pass-through of these higher prices to other goods and services--had pushed consumer inflation higher. Around the same time, supply disruptions associated with the disaster in Japan put upward pressure on motor vehicle prices. As expected, however, the impetus from these influences faded in the second half of the year, leading inflation to decline from an annual rate of about 3-1/2 percent in the first half of 2011 to about 1-1/2 percent in the second half--close to its average pace in the preceding two years. In an environment of well-anchored inflation expectations, more-stable commodity prices, and substantial slack in labor and product markets, we expect inflation to remain subdued.
Against that backdrop, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided last week to maintain its highly accommodative stance of monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its securities holdings, to maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments on its portfolio of securities, and to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee now anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.
As part of our ongoing effort to increase the transparency and predictability of monetary policy, following its January meeting the FOMC released a statement intended to provide greater clarity about the Committee's longer-term goals and policy strategy.1 The statement begins by emphasizing the Federal Reserve's firm commitment to pursue its congressional mandate to foster stable prices and maximum employment. To clarify how it seeks to achieve these objectives, the FOMC stated its collective view that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate; and it indicated that the central tendency of FOMC participants' current estimates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment is between 5.2 and 6.0 percent. The statement noted that these statutory objectives are generally complementary, but when they are not, the Committee will take a balanced approach in its efforts to return both inflation and employment to their desired levels.
Fiscal Policy Challenges
In the remainder of my remarks, I would like to briefly discuss the fiscal challenges facing your Committee and the country. The federal budget deficit widened appreciably with the onset of the recent recession, and it has averaged around 9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) over the past three fiscal years. This exceptional increase in the deficit has mostly reflected the automatic cyclical response of revenues and spending to a weak economy as well as the fiscal actions taken to ease the recession and aid the recovery. As the economy continues to expand and stimulus policies are phased out, the budget deficit should narrow over the next few years.
Unfortunately, even after economic conditions have returned to normal, the nation will still face a sizable structural budget gap if current budget policies continue. Using information from the recent budget outlook by the Congressional Budget Office, one can construct a projection for the federal deficit assuming that most expiring tax provisions are extended and that Medicare's physician payment rates are held at their current level. Under these assumptions, the budget deficit would be more than 4 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2017, assuming that the economy is then close to full employment.2 Of even greater concern is that longer-run projections, based on plausible assumptions about the evolution of the economy and budget under current policies, show the structural budget gap increasing significantly further over time and the ratio of outstanding federal debt to GDP rising rapidly. This dynamic is clearly unsustainable.
These structural fiscal imbalances did not emerge overnight. To a significant extent, they are the result of an aging population and, especially, fast-rising health-care costs, both of which have been predicted for decades. Notably, the Congressional Budget Office projects that net federal outlays for health-care entitlements--which were about 5 percent of GDP in fiscal 2011--could rise to more than 9 percent of GDP by 2035.3 Although we have been warned about such developments for many years, the time when projections become reality is coming closer.
Having a large and increasing level of government debt relative to national income runs the risk of serious economic consequences. Over the longer term, the current trajectory of federal debt threatens to crowd out private capital formation and thus reduce productivity growth. To the extent that increasing debt is financed by borrowing from abroad, a growing share of our future income would be devoted to interest payments on foreign-held federal debt. High levels of debt also impair the ability of policymakers to respond effectively to future economic shocks and other adverse events.
Even the prospect of unsustainable deficits has costs, including an increased possibility of a sudden fiscal crisis. As we have seen in a number of countries recently, interest rates can soar quickly if investors lose confidence in the ability of a government to manage its fiscal policy. Although historical experience and economic theory do not indicate the exact threshold at which the perceived risks associated with the U.S. public debt would increase markedly, we can be sure that, without corrective action, our fiscal trajectory will move the nation ever closer to that point.
To achieve economic and financial stability, U.S. fiscal policy must be placed on a sustainable path that ensures that debt relative to national income is at least stable or, preferably, declining over time. Attaining this goal should be a top priority.
Even as fiscal policymakers address the urgent issue of fiscal sustainability, they should take care not to unnecessarily impede the current economic recovery. Fortunately, the two goals of achieving long-term fiscal sustainability and avoiding additional fiscal headwinds for the current recovery are fully compatible--indeed, they are mutually reinforcing. On the one hand, a more robust recovery will lead to lower deficits and debt in coming years. On the other hand, a plan that clearly and credibly puts fiscal policy on a path to sustainability could help keep longer-term interest rates low and improve household and business confidence, thereby supporting improved economic performance today.
Fiscal policymakers can also promote stronger economic performance in the medium term through the careful design of tax policies and spending programs. To the fullest extent possible, our nation's tax and spending policies should increase incentives to work and save, encourage investments in the skills of our workforce, stimulate private capital formation, promote research and development, and provide necessary public infrastructure. Although we cannot expect our economy to grow its way out of our fiscal imbalances, a more productive economy will ease the tradeoffs that we face and increase the likelihood that we leave a healthy economy to our children and grandchildren.
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'Testifies'? Shouldn't that be 'lies'?
If he didn't use the word f_ck......he was lying.
Dr Ben Bernanke is a true hero, with temerity of spirit. Did you know that during his school years, Ben Bernanke scored 1590 out of 1600 in his SAT test? ... phenomenal!!
Easy to do when you pay off the SAT proctor.
Book-smart and criminal still means a criminal who needs to be booked.
Thanks Ben, pushed right through $1750 and $34.
BFF!
I have to say that I'm starting to understand why Bill Gross sympathizes with Benny.
But his comparison of QE with lowering rates is just too academic. Directly purchasing the US Gov't debt as opposed to lowering rates creates entirely too direct a line between monetary and fiscal policy. So, yeah, screw you Ben.
Kathy Castor needs to shut her pie hole. As should Tom Cole. Thanking the Bernanke for his efforts with TARP.
Staggering
Rep Bill Pascrell - 'Warren Buffet said that he'd never heard of an investor shying away from any sensible investment because of the tax rate that applied to the investment"
Bullshit. Does this man have any idea how many investors will not invest in the US due to the punitive tax rates that apply? Why should they when they can go offshore and earn it tax free?
Please...
If my weight (200lbs) were as "stable" as Ben's prices, in 10 years I would weigh 243, in 20 years 297... #FAIL
This is just pure entertainment value.
Bernanke, words to the effect of 'The difference between the 1980 recession and the current one was that the 1980 recession was caused by high interest rates to combat inflation. They were able to reduce rates and foment a recovery. Now rates are at zero and ...er...ehm...err... well, er.... '
Note to self, 'I really don't want to admit that we're screwed and can do nothing but print, and can we change the subject now before I have to admit that I did the same in 2007 by raising rates to 5.25% to burst the housing bubble....'
eh, please...
Wait a minute, this gets better.
Bernanke- Private investors are not being crowded out, they have access to some of the cheapest loans and finance available today"
WTF! Private investors don't need cheap loans. They want to invest their CAPITAL for a decent return which is undermined by this cretins' cheap loans.
For Christ's sake...
I'm going now, to try and have a more sensible conversation with my Beagle...
Very true, our gain from 1970 until today would be 85%. Robo should be going bullish on Jenny Graig.
If we where dollar's, then we would be skinny mfer's.
Does this man have any idea how many people care out sanguine existances based entirely on what the tax code thinks is trendy?
Along those lines earlier, a guy got bent out of shape cause the unelected FED put out a whitepaper on Obamas housing initiative (congress has fiscal responsibility) Big Ben has been jabbing all day long at their tax code, but the congress critters act like tax code is not fiscal policy. ( not our job, attack it all you want, the K street people do that stuff.)
We are screwed.
Ben Bernanke 'The recovery began in 2009...'
Eh? Where?
Joe Wiesenthal, piker-league propaganda bundler for Obama/Lieberman 2012 (and wannabe Jon Hilsenrath or Andrew Ross-Sorkin; two major league propaganda bundlers for Obama & the Fed, respectively), is throwing an absolute hissy fit over at BI because The Bernank 'slippd up' and compared the U.S. deficit/debt situation to Greece's, admitting that debt crises have a natural inclination to slip away from even the best & brightest fractional reserve charlatans and cause interest rates to spike dramatically and/or defaults to occur, whether a nation has a large or small economy.
UGH: Ben Bernanke Says The Worst Possible Thing In His New Testimony
Oh Noes, Joe Wiesenthal! The Bernank conceded a smattering of reality peppered into his plethora of lies and half truths!
I'm taking notes of all these little quirks of being a central banker, the ability to never answer the actual question and to spew forth copious quantities of bullshit when questions are direct.
Can you imagine for one minute how long you would remain a free man if you tried this with the tax office? They'd cart you off so fast your feet wouldn't touch the floor...
That was absolutely brilliant. They showed him the political (disinformation) chart. He had to reconcile with the "official" NBS/LBS/CBO/FED charts. And then he had to internaly reconcile with the truth. He tripped a little bit, but kept going. Maybe he does deserve his SAT score.
EDIT: +1 to your post above this one harley.
Bernanke - Well, macro projecting is very difficult, and I don't pretend to have a crystal ball,... (just an Epsom)
It just never stops does it...
Rates are too Low(up arrow) Rates are too High (Down Arrow)
Vote accordingly
"no,no, no, printing money doesnt create inflation... I'm a phd economist, you can trust me!"
The Bernank told that 60 Minutes reporter he'd mop up 5.7 to 12 trillion (some have estimated as much as 22 trillion including derivative [pun?] affects of liquidity that he's plowed/backstopped the best friends of the NYC branch of the Fed with (and their best friends) within 15 minutes flat, before any inflationary/currency debasing effects set in.
So it looks like we dodged a bullet.
Whew!
Yes thanks Ben.
Maybe he keeps talking and resistance at these levels will be futile and we will see 39 and 1800 as next.
aaand it's gon...nope it's back.
I think that's actually bernanke's Problem...If he thought like a criminal he wouldn't be so naive to their deeds....We need a Fed chair with balls..Like Jim Grant. Some one who will Hike rates to the moon and make the politicians and bankers literally cry. I want Newt to Pay 30% interest on his balance at tiffany's. I want a house to go For 1-2X median earnings with a 10-12% IR check on mortgages...30-40% donw only...
Instead we are guaranteed an implosion in an our economy that will make Einstein blush... But it will have to happen If anybody will ever be able to afford afford to buy anything or "save"...
Bernanke saying "we need to think about the long run"..What fucking long run? Keynes said we are all dead...Oh wait we are the long run...
What unsubstantiated nonsense!! I would like to see some evidence for this. Did you know that Ben Bernanke also shared a dorm room with Lloyd Blankfein during his studies at Harvard? Lloyd Blankfein is the current CEO of Goldman Sachs Inc. - one of the largest and most reputable investment banks in the world. What a remarkable coincidence!!
I wonder if there's some steamy video floating around somewhere of their secret dorm room fun. Early and historic blackmail material which would explain a lot.
Sharing a dorm room? Please elaborate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Bernanke#Education
MDB why do you suck up to these turds? You hold them in such high esteem even though history will show that they were at the root of possibly the biggest ponzi ever created.
'You hold them in such high esteem' - No he doesn't. He's winding you up old stick...
C'mon folks. You have to just enjoy MDB's posts for what they are and not give them too much thought or dignity. He's a shill that posts the exact opposite of what ZHers believe (the truth) so he can never be taken seriously. It's all a big joke to get people here all worked up.
With laser like consistency, he always sides with the cabal. That alone tells you all you need to know.
He's a tool so please treat his posts with the reverence they deserve...NONE!
He is finally realizing that the easiest way to devalue the dollar is against Gold.
http://goldisking.blogspot.com/
MDB. I agree whole heartedly. Ben is a true hero to those of us who hold precious metals. Now the poor and the elderly on a fixed income might have a different opinion. But who gives a shit about them right?
Foot, meet mouth.
I like you. Ok back to the happiness of owning gold while others are holding paper promises. Too bad the world is crumbling around us and things aren't as rosie as they appear on GSMSJPMBAC-NBC.
Maybe my gold will buy me a ticket to a functional society. Greece looks to be ahead in the game of debt repudiation so maybe I will move there. Just needs a little default and then I can cash in my gold for a trillion Drachmas and retire in the lap of austerity.
Or you could "pull a Cameron" and get the fuck out of dodge and buy a 2600 acre farm in New Zealand to live at for the rest of your days.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_NEW_ZEALAND_JAMES_CAMERON?SITE...
EDIT: Stack Trace -- we're in the same bussiness it looks like (software development) so... cheers?
We actually do.
if you believe sat scores translates to knowledge you are as dumb as he is
The SAT was for the School and Staff, not the Students. I think I was told around 1240 for mine and pffth. Date night was more important.
wow, I'm truly impressed!
Even scholasticly smart people can do evil?
I'm sure he scores 1599 out of 1600 in the psychopath test.
You know 97.35241% of all statistics are made up on the spot you know, trust me...
as are 44.647291% of all investment fund returns...
i heard that it was 1601 of 1600
I bowled a three hundred and one, one time,
I bowled three hundred and I won.
Actually you managed to mentally hold Bowling to Par as it was designed.
As long you carefully land that ball on the correct board for the strike you will be on par.
Now when someone else is bowling against you, they are really fighting themselves mentally. Especially Bruno who needs a 30 pound ball to stay on the line.
what do they call it when the bowling workers go on strike?
Talking turkey, seeing that strikes last about three days.
Only once in my years I hit that 7 ten split for a spare. Watching pros do it all the time on the re runs make me sick.
Plenty of lanes to spare.
... all the world knows he pulls on the push door.
NM
MBD.When I see all the green arrows you always get it is sad .
You either have the counter rigged or there is a MBD Squad that comes on all at the same time.
But just stopped by to say,Fuck you,Ya piece of shit.
Ben Bernanke: "Honestly I have no clue what the fuck is going on with the economy, so I should resign." And the crowd cheers.
Holy heck, he looks terrible. My God, look at his face! He looks like he has aged about 15 years in the last month.
Satanic rituals will do that.
Naw, he probably just had a bag of frozen blood for breakfast instead of something fresh.
Well, we all have to tighten our belts. As long as it is blood he will take it. Fresh or frozen.
pods
Looting is hard work. You'd be tired too.
I can't really look at his face without wanting to plant my fist right in his suck hole
I thought time was supposed to SLOW down as you approach a black hole?
"Testilies"?
All these committees are so much bunk apparently, laughable they keep saying 'we all know what the problem is and what needs to be done' but they can only kick the can again. "A Platypus is a duck designed by a committee"
Armada Markets just sent our a note to clients that they have closed all of their longs and are now shord crude oil, stocks, gold and orange juice.
Fuck armada markets, you retarded fucking spammer.
Bernanke can't hear to well.and he thought he was asked to "Testilie"
not testify.
Hey Ben I'm still waiting for my helicopter full of money.
The helicopter fleet is out in full force......they just don't fly over your side of the tracks.......so sorry about that.
It's kinda cool to watch how gold is now skyrocketing each time the guy who said "gold is not money" opens his mouth....
The Bean counters confisicated the money inside the heli after learning the true costs of said flight. And then canceled it.
30-year yields now at fresh, world record lows.
Man, the world simply loves U.S. "Paper".
Biggest bubble known to mankind.
Just watch what happens when all those trillions move back into stocks.
By "world" I'm sure you mean "central banks" and by "loves" I'm sure you mean "is forced to buy so the Fed will buy their debt to keep up appearances".
Hilarious that you think that central bank buying will stop. There is no force compelling it, unless they want to save their currencies as well, something which has been of secondary concern at best for a long time.
No, rather the central banks will buy the debt of insolvent governments, and those governments will spend the money into the economy, generating massive price inflation. Sure, some will go into stocks, but as has been the case 100% of the time throughout history, stocks will underperform the general rate of price inflation by about an order of magnitude, while gold outperforms general price inflation by varying degrees.
We should finance the US government by just writing puts on the 30 year.
Yeah, japanization of US continues unabated.
What would happen if the Fed raised interest rates to something like a market based rate? I think it would result in an explosion of economic activity, and I think it is without question what he should do.
Wha?
You will see an explosion all right. On that day the stock and bond markets will crash with greater ferocity than anything ever yet seen in history. Stay frosty, Captain.
I think that
1) the dollar would explode higher--we have never had an economic recovery on the back of a weak dollar.
2) The demand for loans, particularly mortgages and car loans would explode higher. Borrow now, before rates go even higher. Anyone waiting on the sidelines to act would do so immediately. (Otehrwise, Why buy now if you know that rates will go even lower?) Home prices would actually rise or at least stop going down.
3) banks would be willing to lend, as they would be able to make a spread at a rate that would serve them over longer terms.
4) the initial spark of home buying and related activity (furniture, applilances, tools, construction materials, commodities, etc) would cause higher employment as firms would begin to see final demand. This initial spark is the one that leads to a real, sustainable recovery of economy.
5) There would be inflation as renewed activity would soak up available goods of all kinds, so the sick disease of deflation would vanquished.
6) The bond market would get hammered as the price of money and debt would behave accordingly. Higher borrowing rates would FORCE congress to reduce spending and address long term fiscal and balance sheet problems NOW.
7) Government would consequently be smaller.
8) People living on fixed income would actually be able to live.
9) The strong and strengthening dollar would invite a tsunami of FDI (foreign direct investment), capital formation in the US, and all the attnedant benefits.
Who has money to buy houses and cars? Who has incomes to support new loans for houses and cars?
Funny thing about hypotheticals though.
They're not real :(
Since when do higher rates create more demand for loans? They would certainly bring in the deposits.
The reality is that higher interest rates reserve more money for those who plan to start or expand productive businesses. This is good. It will NOT spur consumption, but savings, which is exactly what the economy needs.
More people have the wherewithal to buy a home than you might think. How many people are going to buy when rates are expected to go lower? If one fears that borrowing costs are going to increase over the near to mid term and that all those "great deals" on homes will be bought up, one acts now. We're sitting at 6-7 month supply right now. I would bet that within 12 months of raising rates, that number would be reduced to 3 months supply. As to cars, the average age of cars is at all time highs, not seen since the '70's. And auto sales are already perking up. You'd also see higher car loan rates offset by "0% financing", or something akin to it, provided by the auto makers.
And I will assume, for the record, that those who disagree with the prescription I espouse actually believe that the Bernank is doing a good job, that he should be printing money and planning on suppressing (as I see it) economic activity with ZIRP and QEn going forward.
That was an unfounded assumption.
EDIT: and you say "More people have the wherewithal to buy a home than you might think."
That's an interesting way to quantify. How many is that in numbers do you reckon?
I used a reduction in home supply to quantify--from current 6-7 months to 3 months--over one year.
I see. You might get some interesting replies on that one.
Fear of falling rates isn't the issue with buying homes. It's the poor economy, and the fact that very few people are secure enough in their jobs to take on a 30 year debt obligation.
You also fail to recognize the inverse correlation between house prices and interest rates. The "great deals" even out, such that there isn't really any correlation between sales figures and rates outside of bubble mania land.
Assume all you want, it just makes an ass out of u. I don't disagree with your prescription, I disagree with your reasoning and with your projection of the consequences. Putting on the brakes is good when you are headed for a cliff at 120 miles an hour, but there does come a point where it is too late, and it doesn't really matter what you do, such that there is no way to avoid a crash (wheras you can mitigate it at best).
So what should rate policy be? ZIRP but no QE? ZIRP and QE? Don't you guys see that ZIRP is the problem? On so many levels? I know that all of us here like to bash Bernanke and his crushing of savings and the dollar, but who has the courage to put out an alternative? You all are full of it. I am making money on Bernanke's policy, as are many of the people on this site, and I expect that we will continue to do so as Gold and Silver (and stocks and commodities) continue higher in anticipation of further weakening of the dollar, negative real interest rates, etc. Becasue I know that this crazy policy will continue. I just think that we, as a nation should be on an entirely different course. STRENGTHEN the dollar, maintain US reserve currency status, sit back and watch the investment and capital formation cure so much of what is ailing this country.
Answer the question--What should rate polilcy be? If you were Fed chairman, what would you do? And why?
You're answering valid questions about your assumptions by asking the same question over and over again. Lame.
So what is your rate polilcy? Or is it just that you see no point, becasue any policy results in a train wreck? I would argue that at the first sign of US conviction to support the dollar, money and investment would pur into the US.
Isn't the answer "42?"
thought so.
Love the avatar, btw...Mags, is that you? Or should I say "Bob?"
Yes, this is Bob.
raise rates to 10%
Let property speculators crash....cheaper housing is good for everyone who is not a slumlord
Let TBTF banksters crash...make room for new banks.
Let corrupt execs crash...make room for new management
Let idiot politicians crash....make room for new parties
Let idiot employees working on stupid shit crash.....too many bullshitters
Let idiot celebrities crash....diots won't have money to make them millionares
Let idiot tea party rednecks taste unemployment and live on unemployment checks to let them know they are just labor serfs
Do this for 1 year to teach everyone a lesson.
Then bring rates back down to 2%.
@TMosley
In a normal market, you are correct, house prices and interest rates act inversely. Yet, we keep lowering rates and housing demand does not respond. This is the ZIRP trap. AS long as the expectation remains that deflation in home prices and the cost of money will persist, there will be no increase in demand. Pushing on a string, etc. Do you believe there is zero pent up demand? I cannot quantify exactly how great it is, but I know that there is at least some. Let's clear some of the inventory by spurring people (as few as they might be) to get off their butts and buy. It may be enough of a spark to ignite a real sustainable recomvery. If it is not, we can always cut rates again, right?
No matter what the interest rates, people will hold off on buying houses until they feel prices have bottomed out. Why would anyone put 20%+ down if there was any chance part or all of it would evaporate? The BIG problem is the shadow inventory of distressed homes. When you look at the current inventory of REO, homes in default (which are measurable by the public) and homes in distress (only lending institutions have the true numbers, but estimates are staggering), the size of the pool of inventory is frightneing. The supply of the previous pool has been growing many times faster than lenders have been releasing REO homes for sale. Why? Lenders are afraid that putting a greater number of REO homes on the market will increase the supply to where values sart to decline again. Here is the paradox for the banks: do you sit on a mountain of homes loans that are underwater and generating very little cash flow, or do you dump them on the market and take your losses. Answer, it all dependson how the government bails you out. The government won't do a big bailout because its political suicide so they keep doing small backdoor bailout programs which support the diminished revenue stream for the banks. This way they don't go down the tubes and have the opportunity to let REO inventry go to market in small enough amounts that prices won't be substantially affected in a downward way (further exacerbating the problem). Welcome to Japan and the world of zombie banks, high unemployment, stagflation and low growth. The people off the country need to aske themselves the following: which would you prefer, 20 years of what we have now, or several real tough years with the opportunity for a growing economy again. As for me, since I'm 55 and unemployed and have lost 3/4 of my net worth in the last 3 years, I'll go for the latter choice.
Welcome to Japan and the world of zombie banks, high unemployment, stagflation and low growth. The people off the country need to aske themselves the following: which would you prefer, 20 years of what we have now, or several real tough years with the opportunity for a growing economy again. As for me, since I'm 55 and unemployed and have lost 3/4 of my net worth in the last 3 years, I'll go for the latter choice.
Bingo. This is what I want to avoid: Japanification. and who says it will be only 20 years? Why not forever? Japan is no closer to escape velocity than they were a decade ago...in fact, they just announced that they are officially experiencing deflation again...26 years on. Our debt to GDP will only get worse over time under the current regime. The implied methodology (keynesian) of this regime is that at some point in the future, it will be okay to raise rates and force the bitter pill to be swallowed. But the problem will only get worse. this is the ZIRP trap. The pill only gets larger and more difficult to swallow as time goes by.
I agree, btw, that there is huge shadow inventory of distressed homes. How do we address that? Strengthen the US dollar. And spur investment. The shadow inventory can only be lessened by forcing current would-be buyers to act now. if not now, then when? at 3% mortgage rates with home prices still falling? at 2%? 1% We're pushing on air. Think of my prescription as the Contrarian Fed. In this "race to the bottom", where everyone, including the Fed, agrees that the only way out is (ultimately) massive inflation, as there is no way we can ever dream of repaying what we owe in real terms--why not take the opposite course? Enforce our status as the reserve currency. Force any potential home buyer to act now. Bring an incredible flow of foreign money into the US as investment and cause a reason for capital formation. FDI wil be inflationary to an extent that will offset the deflationary effects that a stronger dollar might engender. The Fed could then reduce its stupidly large balance sheet. RAISE RATES NOW. Otherwise, when wil it happen? Let's ask Ben. Or Congress. He'll keep rates down, Congress will keep spending, robbing the economy of needed capital (this is called financial repression), and the whole cycle will reinforce itself. LOOK AT JAPAN. For those of you who buy the Rockefeller/Bilderberg /one world govt idea, this is their prescription. Force the world to a single indebted knee. US reserve status/hegemony is the only thing to stave them off. The only way this will ever reverse itself is via a stalwart Fed, that has the balls to take on TPTB and raise rates to strengthen the dollar. I wil say it again. We have NEVER recovered from any economic malaise under a weak dollar. EVER.
There will be hell to pay from those students being shafted from 4% to 20 % rates on the monthly payments. Yea there will be an explosion alright, all the way to your local tax reciepts to pay for the suddendly unaffordable maturity date for that new street light they installed to keep you awake at night.
Just forced defaults. That is only disastrous for the banks, as the government will also default on it's obligations.
And I don't think I need to be shy in saying "fuck the banks".
CBS Ben. Captain Bull Shit. "oh captain, my captain. you not staying with the sinking ship?"
He is the cruise ship captain who tripped and fell into a lifeboat.
Captian Coward.
And I thought the Valdez spill was a oopsie.
Hell, I am grate ful that the damn ships have not been "Cole'ed" by now with the loss of thousands.
Just watch what happens when all those trillions move back into stocks.
Should be:Just watch what happens when all those trillions are converted into zeroes.
I used to belly up to the TV with some nice buttered popcorn to watch the latest edition of the three ring circus. But this has been going on for so long that all I've gotten out of it is a severe addiction to kettle corn popcorn and 50 lbs around the waist line.
Stop the insanity. My wife is begging you. Just stop. Please.
I'm begging ya.
I thought the insanity that she was begging to stop is you chasing her around he house after taking your Viagra. :>
Odd! That's what she says too.
Something about a repulsive obese old man full of buttered kettle corn high on Viagra who won't leave her alone. Hard to really tell what she's saying when she's screaming and carrying on so.
Love, American Style. :>)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love,_American_Style
Good times. I bet you liked the Partridge family way more than the Brady Bunch. I know I did.
Imagine a different world where C-SPAN scrolls the following during the previews of every Fed Chairman Speech before Congress:
*****
"Give me the control of the credit of a nation, and I care not who makes the laws."
"The few who could understand the system (cheque, money, credits) will either be so interested in its profits, or so dependent on its favours, that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests."
-Nathaniel Meyer Rothschild.
*****
Read this book:
The Creature From Jekyll Island.
Heck, read Andrew Jackson's Bank Veto..back when a veto was a veto and youse put yer objections on the record like....
"Is there no danger to our liberty and independence in a bank that in its nature has so little to bind it to our country? The president of the bank has told us that most of the State banks exist by its forbearance. Should its influence become concentered, as it may under the operation of such an act as this, in the hands of a self-elected directory whose interests are identified with those of the foreign stockholders, will there not be cause to tremble for the purity of our elections in peace and for the independence of our country in war? Their power would be great whenever they might choose to exert it; but if this monopoly were regularly renewed every fifteen or twenty years on terms proposed by themselves, they might seldom in peace put forth their strength to influence elections or control the affairs of the nation. But if any private citizen or public functionary should interpose to curtail its powers or prevent a renewal of its privileges, it can not be doubted that he would be made to feel its influence."
rest here...
http://millercenter.org/scripps/archive/speeches/detail/3636
Hasn't pretty much every single thing he warned about happened x 10?
all the warnings about central banks were about high rates. power to savers and not spenders (ie. politicians)
Fed is essentially captured by political elites, so we have low rates. so we have power to spenders by robbing from savers.
Read Money's Prophets and The World's Banker too.
Wife asks, how much does that shit cost!? 50 dollar. Big stick long time.
WTF!? I quit smoking and drinking for THIS!?
No wonder domestic violence is on the rise.
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY APPEARS TO BE SLOWING.
Really Ben? Really?
The Sith Lord speaks. The Force trembles.
Obi-Won Durden: "Ah yes chancellor ... but Sith Lords are our spec-i-ality"
Question I would ask Ben: Can you please name a country....just one country...where by the time it was hit by high inflation, they had full employment? I only ask for one country. Only one to be named.
Wiemar Germany. Reading "When money dies" and they had very high employment during high inflation.
High employment is one of the dumbest goals ever.
We need more wealth not more employment. You can get high employment with everyone working in a rice field generating barely enough money to purchase the energy to feed themselves to complete the work.
Weimer Germany had high employment during high inflation. (premise)
High employment is one of the dumbest goals ever. (premise)
Therefore, we need more wealth. (conclusion)
I think the QED isn't quite met there, professor.
You missed a premise in there. Employment in no way correlates with wealth(or quality of life) (See China and many other 3rd world countries)
If wealth is the cause of quality of life (See America 1857-1915)
and
If employment does not correlate with wealth (See China)
and more employment is the goal at the expense of wealth
then actions to create more employment will cause a lower quality of life
Does that help, grasshopper?
I missed it? It wasn't there. The person who presents the argument is responsible for making the premises explicit. My guess is you are an American, (I am) so there's really no need for logic anyway. Just align yourself with an ideology, proclaim it with a combination of smugness, frustration, or anger, throw in a few expletives and you're good.
He never said QED. His post was just a statement with some supporting facts. Not sure what you are getting all pissy about. Every post doesn't have to contain an argument.
Thus it has been shown. But you failed to say "fucking."
What we need is a return to prosperity.
This old book explains how the original system was set up in this country and why it was set up that way.
http://www.archive.org/details/coinsfinancialsc00harvrich
It starts a little slow but give it a chance. This is one of those rare books that can forever change the way you look at things and impart a little true wisdom and understanding.
The missing pieces in that book are in "Wages of Destruction", and those pieces are a real eye opener.
Master of the Obvious explains in boring, monotone detail what everyone at Zero Hedge already knows.
AHHH, the Ben and Tiny Tim show, wake me up when the Treas bubble blows......
CAN SOMEONE TELL ME WHY THE FUCK ANYONE WOULD RALLY THE EURO FROM 1.3086 THIS AM TO HERE......HAVENT THEY LEARNED EVERYTHING IS A LIE
I expect to see this on people's resumes soon: EXPERT LIER.
Please god of dorks let Maxine Waters be in top form today. Please, i could really use the amusement.
It makes my ears bleed to hear her speak. I have no idea how we have made it this far with such incompetent people on these committees.
Maxine Waters does remind one of a character from "The Jeffersons" or "Movin' on Up". That's some real progress in race relations.
The laugh track from the line "We're gonna socialize your ass" is classic.
Didn't Maxine play "Weezie" on the Jeffersons? Or was that Sheila Jackson Lee?
So basically us peons are still going to be fucked while the banks gorge themselves on the FEDs teet for a while longer?
pods
Wash, rinse, repeat.
Paul Ryan sounds like he's taken a few talking points out of Peter Schiff's book. He's almost convincing...
Thank God Wall Street does not have to make the same Bentributions that the Working Class has too!
Commie Obama ='s Socialize Losses and Privatize Profits!
I wonder if anyone will ask about the new recommendation for negative Treasury interest rates made by the MorganGoldmanJPSachs Squid Committee.
Japanification: It's not just for decades anymore. It's for EVAH.
He is in control of the world's markets period...he has the shot locked down. cheap money forever
The US congress is stupid if they think that Ben can solve the problems of the USA with a monetary policy centred around ZIRP while they run a fiscal policy that is out of control.
I can't stand this guy. I feel bad for him at times, but otherwise, YUCK, he makes my stomach churn.
what are the dinking words for this one? Negative IRP?, Cash for Cash? Oligarchs?
Voluntary
Induced
Xecution
I don't care what the Bernank has to say its all going to be lies as he tries to save his own ass, I came straight here to the comments to see what kind of pic William Bonzai would post! I'll keep hitting refresh...
You can find them here http://maxkeiser.com/, if you don't mind cheating on the Tyler's for a little while!
Blasphemy, man. Blasphemy.
Blast on me as much as you like, but I consider myself to be a well rounded indivdual. Or, is it that I just get around?http://youtu.be/E3kgjzUsDeg
'We got all the free 0% interest money we want to buy our own bonds! We're good here...what could possibly go wrong!'
And gold is up!
Good job Ben, keep it up. You should talk more.
Yeah, Gold's getting a rod over Capt. Ben's storm warnings.
ben things are looking up..why I still have a Job.
...and stimulus policies are phased out...
gold, bitc*ez!
The minute they stop 'stimulus policies' of dumping trucks full of free money $50 billion a day into the bottomless pit everything falls completely apart.
Sounds good to me.