Berlusconi Main Squeeze Merkel Sends Mixed Messages: Says Eurozone Insolvency Is Possible But Greek Default Would Be Comparable To Lehman

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Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:46 | 1708454 cossack55
cossack55's picture

About 1%.  I would say too high, but the CBs have a way of surprising one and all.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:57 | 1708491 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

Everything is priced in! I repeat, everything is priced in:

Euro crash: priced in
Germany leaving Euro: priced in
US default: priced in
Fed printing $10T: priced in
US Muni defaults: priced in
PIGS default: priced in
BRICs will save the world: priced in
Middle East unrest: priced in
Invasion of Isreal: priced in
China hard landing: priced in
China debt collapse: priced in
Hyper inflation: priced in
Hyper deflation: priced in
Peak oil: priced in
New historic oil find: priced in

Nothing is priced in!! When the next shoe falls, then the next, then the next.... We'll see what was actuall priced in!!

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:16 | 1708535 ratso
ratso's picture

You are right - the only thing priced in is an uneasiness with the idea that the future will be like the past.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:28 | 1708555 Ancona
Ancona's picture

HAHAHAHAHAHAH  Bitchez!

Default, it's what's for dinner!

Hahahahahha! Really, you didn't see this coming? Shame on you!

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 18:22 | 1708668 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

http://wideeyecinema.com/?p=7208

2nd link

 

people who control banking and media also control their own jews to hate non-jews and see everything through the eyes of anti-semitism. Must see rare documentary....BECAUSE AN ISRAELI JEW FILMED THE DOCUMENTARY BECAUSE HE WAS SICK OF HIS OWN SHIT.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 19:18 | 1708817 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

You hit it right on the head, there is no way to price in the dominoes that will fall no way.  First they know the more money they give Greece no matter a dollar to 1 billion dollars is more money that they won't be able to repay (they are in debt to the tune I think of 350 billion dollars to everybody).  But if the allow them to default all that debt and the banks and financial institutions that loaned them the money (who also levereged that to be able to make more money off the loan) will automatically have that on the books as liabilities, which will officially make all if not most of them insolvent (like we already know they are).  Also it will force discovery of debt price and individual countries economies.  You see other countries are in alot worse shape than Greece and their percentage of debt to GDP is higher (Ireland is 840 billion in debt, Spain and Italy at least a piece 1 trillion Portugal and Belgium high also).  So if Greece defaults and can't pay their debt, then others will say and be correct that these other countries can't pay theirs also.

Both banks and countries will Domino and start falling one on top of another.

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 00:28 | 1709450 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

CDS exposure ALONE makes it impossible to predict the consequences of default.  Oh well, that's why the banks made it this way. The more opaque, the better for them.  No doubt a lot of hedgies (and banks) are praying for greece and others to collapse.  See what happens when you let other people take out insurance on YOU, even if they have no direct interest???  Thanks Blythe!!!!

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 22:32 | 1709219 UBIGDummy
UBIGDummy's picture

WHY WONT THESE FOOKERS just collapse already. I got money to be made:)

I need a private jet for christ sakes!

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 22:46 | 1709248 slewie the pi-rat
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people have made vast fortunes fading slewie...

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 22:36 | 1709230 FederalReserveB...
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Priceless! For everything else there is Mastercard... until there is a global liquidity crisis and credit evaporates where credit cards are frozen and only cash is accepted for transactions. How well do you think that will go over when the gasoline delivery truck pulls up to the Holiday station and asks the store manager if he has his cash for the gas he is delivering, no net-15, no net-30, CASH NOW! No cash? No gas! The store manager can then run to the bank to get cash where a note from Secretary Geitner and Ben Bernanke will read, The United States has declared today a bank holiday. Please come back Monday. If you will need to withdraw cash, your monthly limit will be $500 for personal accounts and $1,000 for business accounts. We apologize for the inconvenience and wish to inform you that your money is safe in this bank. Enjoy your weekend.

Demand deposits are 30x the actual cash that is available. How much food, gas, cash, "protection" (of the steel and brass variety) do you have and how quickly can you get away from populated areas are the questions you will really need answers for...SOON!

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 00:08 | 1709405 goldenagehorde
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Germany leaving Euro.
This is the only one i don't see to be possible,

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:46 | 1708456 Long-John-Silver
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Duh!

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:24 | 1708501 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Lehman is the proverbial go-to threat from all these monkeys now. Jeez, find a new threat because I'm crying out for bigger catastophes, disasters and clusterfucks and I'm tired of Lehman Bros allusion.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:46 | 1708457 Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

So when does the USA face their deficit problem like Europe? After Europe is through with theirs?  Congress does not seem to want to raise taxes and stop spending like they know they should.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:49 | 1708466 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The exact same way Europe is dealing with it. Kick the can down the road until an 18 Trillion wheeled debt truck runs over it.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:55 | 1708482 Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

I refuse to believe that the government would deceive the general population (ie those brilliant scholars who created the housing boom) into devauling them into nothingness.  Is reelection really that important?  Sooner or later it will catch up with them either way they decide, so what is the problem with doing the right thing?

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:13 | 1708529 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

It doesn't have to decieve too hard.  Most of the general population are idiots.  As for reelection, just kick the can far enough so the next elected person after you gets to clean up the shit pile you left on the floor.

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 03:26 | 1709830 ivana
ivana's picture

USA will "face the problem" last since they created it and managing it.

TBTF and other major banksters are "managing crisis" from begining behind the curtains

 

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:46 | 1708458 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

And still the believers in the EuroZone failure of an experiment won't be deterred.

Merkel admitted, plainly and loudly (see title of thread) that INSOLVENCY OF THE EU IS POSSIBLE.

Gee, would that be as if a President of the U.S. gave a Rose Garden Presser and admitted that the imminent insolvency of the U.S. was possible?

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:50 | 1708467 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

The U.S. can print so the President would never have to say that.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:55 | 1708472 TruthInSunshine
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The ECB can print, as well, so Merkel could have avoided saying what she did today (though the consequences may have been far more dire than to date).

They are just dealing with little Greece, here.

Just imagine the economic & political task involved in rescuing PIIGS+France+UK.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:02 | 1708505 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

That day is coming.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 18:12 | 1708635 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

That day is here,

China says "no way Jose"

BY BOB DAVIS

WASHINGTON—China to Europe: Don't expect a bailout from us.

That was the message delivered by a number of Chinese officials during meetings at the International Monetary Fund, where China was widely seen as an answer to the euro zone's problems, either as a purchaser of European debt or as a country that could further goose its economic growth rate.

"We can't just go save someone," said Gao Xiqing, president of China Investment Corp., China's huge sovereign wealth fund. "We're not saviors. We have to save ourselves," he said at a weekend panel discussion

 

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 18:42 | 1708723 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

PIIGS FUK

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:47 | 1708462 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Merkel is relying on the IMF? Did she read the IMF's latest solvency report? Sheeeeet.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:50 | 1708599 macholatte
macholatte's picture

Merkel said she relied on the view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) when assessing how to handle Greece.

As long as the IMF was convinced Greece's debt was sustainable, then she supported that position, she said.

 

Translation-Interpretation = The Fed will rescue EU = American Taxpayer gets pimped again

 

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:54 | 1708476 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

And should the German vote actually fail, ...

It won't fail. The German parliament mainly consists of teachers, laywers and similar useless folks. Most of them are feeble brain-washed socialists, regardless of the party they actually belong to, and have litter in their heads.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:34 | 1708568 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

consists of teachers, laywers and similar useless folks.

Let me help you there.

consists of teachers, lawyers and similar useless fucks.

Fixed.

No charge.

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 00:19 | 1709431 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Yep - the Greens and the social"democ-rats" already signalled "Yay!" to the EFSF extensions - makes up something like 70-75% for letting the bill thru.

Nowadays I hate the weapons-law in Germany - might get a crossbow, tho...

default (Greece) on Saturday, new D-Mark on Sunday - thanks heaven for public holiday ("Day of Re-Union"!!!) on Monday (Oct, 3rd).

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:54 | 1708478 SirPlayomic
SirPlayomic's picture

The SPD, who are the opposition in Germany, will definitely vote for the EFSF and not against it. The SPD want a stronger EU, in effect a super state, under one Treasury department. They are in bed with the banks. Sad but true. This makes the EFSF guarenteed.
www.greedion.com

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:55 | 1708484 Religion Explained
Religion Explained's picture

Yeah, but ... don't be betting one way or another. CBs are just licking their chops and ready to shear bulls and bears alike. The only way to win is not to play the game or to have timely intimiate insider info on the CBs next move.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:41 | 1708581 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Absolutely.

There are no markets.

Just Soviet instructions.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:56 | 1708488 Catullus
Catullus's picture

What I love the most about Merkel is that she makes this seem so much like democracy and less like the vassal state that Germany is. You know the French allowed German unification for the price of destroying the DM and handcuffing the Bundesbank.

The fact of the matter is that a Greek default doesn't matter. They're already marked down. That this reveals inadequate liquidity for the banks is mutually exclusive of a Greek bond default. The analysis that a Greek default is Lehman event is bullshit. The part that's very disturbing is that the USDA will never declare sovereign debt in default, so those CDS transactions used as "hedges" will never pay out. THAT is the Lehman event.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:57 | 1708489 ivana
ivana's picture

Germans don't care if EURO drops. Everyone there knows that german export will rise accordingly. Merkel have to play it out herself

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:01 | 1708502 Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

Exactly, A weak currency favors exporters like Japan, which is exactly what Germany wants to revive their economy.  THe Euro will tank so Germany can grow again.  If you look at when most of their growth occured it was during the stage when the Euro was worth much less.

 

 

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:56 | 1708490 paul_Liu
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Hi Tyler,

Could you please send me an email at paulliu9@gmail.com? I have a very important info to share with you. Thanks Paul

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:02 | 1708504 achmachat
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don't forget to let us know just how many emails you just received after posting your email address here.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:04 | 1708513 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

Contact Information:

Tips: tips [ at ] zerohedge.com

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:33 | 1708565 Earl of Chiswick
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Quanwei please ask ZH to remove your email address, you should not post your email on a public board.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:36 | 1708572 bob_dabolina
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You will be getting emails like


DEAR SIR,

URGENT AND CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS PROPOSAL

I AM MARIAM ABACHA, WIDOW OF THE LATE NIGERIAN HEAD OF STATE, GEN. SANI ABACHA. AFTER HE DEATH OF MY HUSBAND WHO DIED MYSTERIOUSLY AS A RESULT OF CARDIAC ARREST, I WAS INFORMED BY OUR LAWYER, BELLO GAMBARI THAT, MY HUSBAND WHO AT THAT TIME WAS THE PRESIDENT OF NIGERIA, CALLED HIM AND CONDUCTED HIM ROUND HIS APARTMENT AND SHOWED HIM FOUR METAL BOXES CONTAINING MONEY ALL IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND HE EQUALLY MADE HIM BELIEVE THAT THOSE BOXES ARE FOR ONWARD TRANSFER TO HIS OVERSEAS COUNTERPART FOR PERSONAL INVESTMENT.

ALONG THE LINE, MY HUSBAND DIED AND SINCE THEN THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN AFTER US, MOLESTING, POLICING AND FREEZING OUR BANK ACCOUNTS AND EVEN MY ELDEST SON RIGHT NOW IS IN DETENTION. MY FAMILY ACCOUNT IN SWITZERLAND WORTH US$22,000,000.00 AND 120,000,000.00 DUTCH MARK HAS BEEN CONFISCATED BY THE GOVERNMENT. THE GOVERNMENT IS INTERROGATING HIM (MY SON MOHAMMED) ABOUT OUR ASSET AND SOME VITAL DOCUMENTS. IT WAS IN THE COURSE OF THESE, AFTER THE BURIAL RITE AND CUSTOMS, THAT OUR LAWYER SAW YOUR NAME AND ADDRESS FROM THE PUBLICATION OF THE NIGERIAN BUSINESS PROMOTION AGENCY. THIS IS WHY I AM USING THIS OPPORTUNITY TO SOLICIT FOR YOUR CO-OPERATION AND ASSISTANCE TO HELP ME AS A VERY SINCERE RESPONSIBLE PERSON. I HAVE ALL THE TRUST IN YOU AND I KNOW THAT YOU WILL NOT SIT ON THIS MONEY.

I HAVE SUCCEEDED IN CARRYING THE FOUR METAL BOXES OUT OF THE COUNTRY, WITH THE AID OF SOME TOP GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL, WHO STILL SHOW SYMPATHY TO MY FAMILY, TO A NEIGHBOURING COUNTRY (ACCRA-GHANA) TO BE PRECISE. I PRAY YOU WOULD HELP US IN GETTING THIS MONEY TRANSFERRED OVER TO YOUR COUNTRY. EACH OF THESE METAL BOXES CONTAINS US$5,000,000.00 (FIVE MILLION UNITED STATES DOLLARS ONLY) AND TOGETHER THESE FOUR BOXES CONTAIN US20,000,000.00(TWENTY MILLION UNITED STATESDOLLARS ONLY). THIS IS ACTUALLY WHAT WE HAVE MOVED TO GHANA.

THEREFORE, I NEED AN URGENT HELP FROM YOU AS A MAN OF GOD TO HELP GET THIS MONEY IN ACCRA GHANA TO YOUR COUNTRY. THIS MONEY, AFTER GETTING TO YOUR COUNTRY, WOULD BE SHARED ACCORDING TO THE PERCENTAGE AGREED BY BOTH OF US.PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS MATTER IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL AS THE GOVERNMENT WHICH MY LATE HUSBAND WAS PART OF IS STILL UNDER SURVAILLANCE TO PROBE US.

YOU CAN CONTACT ME THROUGH MY FAMILY LAWYER AS INDICATED ABOVE AND ALSO TO LIAISE WITH HIM TOWARDS THE EFFECTIVE COMPLETION OF THIS TRANSACTION ON TEL/FAX N0:xxx-x-xxxxxxx AS HE HAS THE MANDATE OF THE FAMILY TO HANDLE THIS TRANSACTION.

THANKS AND BEST REGARD

MRS. MARIAM ABACHA

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:45 | 1708586 Earl of Chiswick
Earl of Chiswick's picture

cause what happens is you end up in a place like this

http://www.skymem.com/document.aspx?name=email-2011-2-3t16-48-27.6518z-1...

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:58 | 1708494 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Latest news from Greece : Government to vote on Tuesday on a new ``special fee`` on property.

Most Greeks still support the Euro (about 60%) and don't want to go back to the Drachma.

The MPs are very tired of the government and everything that is going down, a lot of them are thinking about resigning... which could happen tuesday. Or they could kick out that SOB Papandreou out of office.

 

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:03 | 1708506 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Most Greeks still support the Euro (about 60%) and don't want to go back to the Drachma

Of  course most of the Greeks are (still) in favour of the EUR because it enables them to accumulate debt with low interest rates.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:00 | 1708500 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

i just had a deflationist nutjobgasm

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:07 | 1708519 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

More from German "leaders" according to WSJ:

But warnings from the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, suggested serious obstacles remain. "We won't come to grips with economies deleveraging by having governments and central banks throwing—literally—even more money at the problem," he told the IMF meetings.

He told reporters that the bailout fund can only work within the legal framework of the European Union's treaty, and more specifically, within the agreement governing the bailout fund. Neither of those allows the facility to be leveraged, he said.

Deutsche Bundesbank's Jens Weidmann also said leveraging the bailout fund, specifically by allowing it to borrow from the ECB, would be equivalent to the monetary financing of state budgets, which is forbidden by the EU treaty.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020401060457659283002099648...

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:17 | 1708536 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Looks like these two powerful Germans are standing tough and throwing a large pail of cold water on the leverage fantasy fever.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:08 | 1708521 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

If Germany were to man up and leave the euro (like tomorrow) a war would probably happen in Europe.

The other euro countries would be screwed, going into depression, and of course they would all blame Germany for it. Angry people can easily be manipulated into war.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:15 | 1708534 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Exactly. This was the French thesis in post Cold War Europe by Mitterrand in 1995.

http://www.amazon.com/Mitterrand-Unification-Berghahn-Monographs-Studies...

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 19:53 | 1708900 smiler03
smiler03's picture

I think this talk of war in Europe is a complete fantasy by people who seem to think it would achieve something.

Can you possibly conceive of the UK, France, Germany, Italy etc fighting against each other? Let me see, how would they start. Bomb each others ammunition dumps. Arm the populace with chinese pick up trucks and guns and roam around each other's cities. Blockade each others harbours (the French would win that). 

Third world countries maybe but not a seriously armed nation against seriously armed nation.

That would just be M.A.D. 

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 17:11 | 1708526 ivana
ivana's picture

Germans don't care if EURO drops. Everyone there knows that german export will rise accordingly. Merkel have to play it out herself. Of course ECB will print finally. On the other side FED will preserve illusion that USTreasuries are "safer" than any other gov bonds.

That's why this "crisis" will last for months. All puppet media , various Nobel idiots, soros bastards, rating agencies etc will spur the collapse feeling fom time to time. ECB will print but nothing will improve, bancrupcies will continue after Greece.

FED has changed game and will dry up global liquidity soaking USD back to give it to us.gov (which is bankrupt) for elections and possibly new war. Monetary ice age for circa 12-16 months.

USD will rise for months and US citizens will be proud again ... proud they can afford more imported goods. So USD up up up than elections than USD down down than war than USD again up up but yields also up up up and then ... MAJOR RESET sometime in 2013 or 2014

Behind curtains, EU banks and some corrupt governments will be taken over by NWO and major banksters.

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