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Bernanke Decrees: Gold Rips, VIX Slips, And Volume Dips

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Gold managed a 1.8% surge today (back above $1690 and its 200- and 100-DMAs and its largest jump in 2 months) from Friday's close thanks to the combination of the ECB on Friday and Merkel and Bernanke today assuring the world that anything more than a 2% dip in stocks will not be tolerated. While Silver outperformed Gold from Friday's close, based on its 2-3x beta of the last year this was a notable 'underperformance' as Gold outpaced everything (beta adjusted). Perhaps importantly, the S&P 500 when priced in gold met and rejected resistance at a key level today - even with its nominal 30pt rally off of Friday's S&P lows. Volumes were abysmal with stocks well below YTD average and the S&P futures 20% below average and among the lowest few days' volumes of the year. Credit markets did not participate as exuberantly (though HY outperformed IG as you would expect) but the day seemed split into 4 segments: pre-Bernanke (quiet/sideways), Bernanke to US Open (rampfest, Gold outperforms, TSY rally), US Open to EU Close (TSY selloff notably, equities sideways, Gold rips), and then from EU Close to US Close (Equity/Gold/TSY rally as USD leaked lower). In FX, JPY was relatively stable at its lows after Bernanke's speech as the rest of the majors strengthened versus the USD (as EUR broke above 1.3350 once again). Oil managed a small rally on the day but underperformed the USD's 0.5% weakness from Friday as Treasuries were very flip-floppy today - ending the day with a small twist around 7Y (30Y +3bps). VIX made new lows and closed there as the term structure flattened further to its flattest in almost 4 months (with the largest six-day flatttening in 8 months).

The S&P priced in Gold appears to have met and rejected resistance at around this level but of course this does nothing to slow the nominal equity rally that is now ignorant of anything but centrally planned rhetoric...


and ES (the S&P 500 e-mini futures contract) rallied right up to the long-run (March 2009) rally low up-trendline (and also its post-Thanksgiving Day rally up-trendline too)...

 

The equity market excitedly outperformed credit today (as stocks were led by Healthcare - Obamacare-related and then the typical high-beta Financials, Industrials, and Discretionary but everything was up today).

Oil generally ignored all the hullaballoo of the precious metals and copper surging and tracked much more closely with the USD today...

As is clear, Copper and Silver outpaced Gold today BUT on a normal beta-adjusted basis the Gold move is considerably larger.

The day seemed to break into 4 segments in terms of correlated market action...

Given the pre-Bernanke pre-amble, it is evident just how big a 'beta' adjusted day Gold had. Treasuries were confused as the standard QE-on trade fell apart on some US-Open to EU-Close selling which appeare to translate directly into gold buying from the chart above. After Europe closed, the game was on and Vol was crushed, Stocks ramped, Gold soared and Treasuries rallied back to their best levels of the day (though the long-end underperformed the short-end from Friday's close).

VIX closed at its lowest since June 2007, unable to take out the intraday lows though from a week or so ago). What is most interesting is the start of a capitulation in the term structure - i.e. the premium for protection is coming down notably not just in the front-month but in later months where investors/traders have been keeping their hedges on. While painful, until this plays out to more normalized 'flatness' (which are actually approaching rapidly now) there is too much ammo to keep pushing higher as shorts cover or hedgers capitulate.

 

As the VIX/VXV term structure ratio (or relative flatness of the term structure of volatility) has seen the last six days show the biggest flattening in 8 months as the term structure is nearly normalized to its 50DMA...

 

What is quite entertaining is watching CNBC explain this new reality as dismal data disappointing everywhere and Pisani facing up to a new normal non-recovery in housing and yet the performance of stocks is somehow magically fundamentals supported by the Fed's actions (indirectly instrad of directly via pure debasement)...you can tell even their tough veneer of perma-bullishness is starting to crack at the addicted loquidity-fueled monster than Ben and his friends have unleashed...

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 03/26/2012 - 16:37 | 2292326 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I got my tungsten foil hat on.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:19 | 2292455 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

EOQ window-dressing week.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:04 | 2292576 redpill
redpill's picture

Hopefully no double-levered VIX ETF muppets were harmed in the filming of this picture.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 20:02 | 2292910 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

Off topic
BBC Radio 4 have just broadcast an excellent programme called "Analysis" in which they explore the conjuring trick by which the Bank of England calls money into existence by the 'magic' of QE - comparisons to Weimar Republic etc. - AT LAST the mainstream media are starting to wake up!

I hope this link works - there is about a minute of junk at the start - sorry!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/bigscreen/radio/episode/b01dtlzn/

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 20:09 | 2292940 CU1981
CU1981's picture

How come 0 hedge never mentions the NWO ? Only NATO .... Hello Tyler... Chairsatan2 ?????

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 19:28 | 2292851 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

Rips, Slips, and Dips? 

I've lost the bleeps, I lost the sweeps, and I lost the creeps.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 19:31 | 2292860 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Fuck you Bernanke!

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 16:40 | 2292336 meetired
meetired's picture

To hell with the Bernanke Put, I'm putting on the Bernanke Gets Put in the Ground play.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 20:13 | 2292946 moonshadow
moonshadow's picture

watch out-in utah they're monitoring what u just said

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 21:30 | 2293085 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Long CRAY

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 16:42 | 2292346 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Bernanke just has to schedule to fart every day to keep the market pumped. When he finally is out of dirty air, the world will end.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:07 | 2292415 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Bernank started to monitor this board and gives negative recs on every post.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:56 | 2292549 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

We <3 you, chairsatan. We <3 you even longer, if you pay in silver.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 23:33 | 2293331 StychoKiller
Mon, 03/26/2012 - 16:45 | 2292355 trembo slice
trembo slice's picture

Silver outpaced gold, eh?

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 16:50 | 2292366 walstudio
walstudio's picture

Tyler, maybe it's time for you to say, "Ok, I am wrong, the market is right"

--The market is always right.

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 16:56 | 2292379 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

We've heard the same thing up until July '11 whereby 1350 was breached and everyone was on their high horse looking for SPX 1500.

Can we finally get there this time? Possibly... but is it sustainable? Quite likely not. We just need a few more suckers to hop in around these highs, so give it a few more months...

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:00 | 2292389 walküre
walküre's picture

The "market" .. LOL

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:23 | 2292466 Howdan
Howdan's picture

Hahaha - the "market".....that made me laugh so hard I was crying!

It's funny because it's true. Market? What market?

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:08 | 2292401 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

technicals and fundamentals have disconnected

for those trading on fundamentals remember the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

for those trading on technicals, tread carefully. algo flash crashes can occur in the blink of an eye

the safe way to play this scenario is buy PM's and hard assets and sleep easy at night

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 22:20 | 2293193 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

The bond market is right.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 16:51 | 2292369 devo
devo's picture

Is it too late to participate? I mean, this is clearly going up more, just wondering if the reward is worth the risk at this point.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 16:53 | 2292373 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

How much of this article can be taken seriously when the gold bias of the author is so apparent?  What the f*ck is it with you retards?  Silver has been spanking gold all damn day. 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:01 | 2292391 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

Three votes down from the retard gallery so far. 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:05 | 2292404 brewing
brewing's picture

you're just lookin for a good junkin, aren't you...

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:12 | 2292434 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

And YOU didn't address the content of my post either.  

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:16 | 2292440 gangland
gangland's picture

that's because this douchebag "brewing" is an unemployed alcoholic drunk troll in his mom's basement with nothing of value to add. ever. look at his pathetic posts.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:25 | 2292473 brewing
brewing's picture

great post writing and comedy seem to suit you well...

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:47 | 2292523 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

"Oh!.  I have gold and a junk button.  that makes me intellectually superior."

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:18 | 2292616 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

hey sucker,

i think it's safe to assume that most gold owners on ZH also own silver.  lots of it.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:49 | 2292746 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

What does that have to do with the fact that the author of the article misrepresents the data?  Is that too difficult for you to grasp?

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 19:17 | 2292832 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

Bernanke lies about the value of the dollar and treasuries all of the time.  How does that make gold investors any better if they lie about the fundamentals of their investments? 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 19:22 | 2292840 Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

RoboTrader jumping in touting LULUmon yoga active wear would be the tiss to the BA DUM TISS. Right about now.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:09 | 2292421 walstudio
walstudio's picture

Put it simple, when the market doesn't go with what the "model" says, 

it's either

1) The market is wrong,

2) Your "model" is wrong.

Or, you guys can keep hiding your head into the sand, it's been about 100 days since Dec 19th rally, btw.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:39 | 2292505 walküre
walküre's picture

I stayed in cash and missed the opportunity. Didn't lose anything either.

LTRO was the name of the juice.

Let's see how much longer the charade can go on. Humpty Dumpty is still broken in pieces.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 23:52 | 2293373 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Was the market wrong in March 200 when the NASDAQ hit 5250? The market was right until it wasn't and millions got wiped out. I'd rather stay on the sidelines. I rode it up for 40% and now it's in the danger zone.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:20 | 2292447 devo
devo's picture

Yeah, I got 4 downs for speaking realistically and presenting a valid question with debate potential.

Look dudes, I like gold and all, but this stock market is going higher. We're supposed to lie and pretend it isn't?

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:44 | 2292514 walküre
walküre's picture

Are you looking at the broader picture or at individual stocks?

When you look at some individual stocks, the performance is mostly awful except for a few "darling" stocks.

All the miners I sold last year are still down further. The energy stocks are down further.

Bank stocks are up. As if.

So, what would you buy?

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:39 | 2292677 devo
devo's picture

Probably an index fund, which sucks, but it's a broader way to ride the rally. I mean, I am not comfortable buying here, but I also hate sitting on the sidelines watching this meltup. I bought some value stocks (Vodafone@26.03, Newmont@52.12) last week near 52 week lows and they've popped a little since then, but I can't find many undervalued individual stocks. Especially since I am so bearish on the long term prospects. But, on the flip side I know markets will get all the money they need to levitate. So, the question is, do we go in? I mean, I feel like this is a trap. At some point it won't be, though, and we'll have missed a large run (or we already have). Unless it finally corrects/implodes. This earnings seasons might decide if I go in or not. I mean, I think earnings are going to be sh*t moving forward. UI is ending for many people as U6 climbs. Retailers have been weary to pass on inflation to consumers, so their eating a bit of that for now. That won't last, either. Really tough situation imo. Do we go in or not? It would be nice to get a real discussion instead of nasty quips from gun-toting gold bugs and jaded folks who think everything but metal is shit. I like diversity and having a foot in each world.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 21:37 | 2293103 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

PIB is at a low risk entry point. I suspect it breaks lower given the shit relative strength but if you are looking for low price/risk entry it might make sense here w/ a stop a little under recent lows.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 23:54 | 2293379 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Buying here is like buying in 2000. Yeah the market keeps going up until it collapses. Everyone knows that it's overbought but they keep wanting to squeeze out that last dime

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:40 | 2292695 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

but this stock market is going higher until the central banks say so.

There, fixed it for you.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 23:10 | 2293278 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

It's Simple, You like the rise, THEN PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS!!...looking for approval?

MY MAIN MAN...Keep telling "ME", what you see, hear and smell!!!

Pay no attention to the "knuckleheads"!!

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 21:32 | 2293087 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

It was only three because I hadn't read your post yet.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:08 | 2292413 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

And it's going to get SMACKED sometime this week.    3/31 is coming.

And yes I am stacking some right after that smackdown.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:16 | 2292439 trembo slice
trembo slice's picture

no need for the hostility bro.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:33 | 2292492 DosZap
DosZap's picture

suckerfishzilla

Dude,retard is a bad word,mentally challenged like your math is better.

Plus do your damned math.................SPANKING?.

If you call .24% SPANKING...........I would hate to see a 5% diff.

1.86% v.s. 1.65%

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 16:56 | 2292378 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

crack up boom

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:00 | 2292386 gjp
gjp's picture

True that.  A textbook case.  What should one do in a crack up boom when insanity and greed are rampant?  I really don't know ... it's making me crack up actually.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:01 | 2292390 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Own real shit

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 16:56 | 2292380 walküre
walküre's picture

What comes first?

The pump or the propaganda? Doesn't really matter as only few people will recognize the effects. Monday pump was already programmed before Bernanke opened his flap. They needed him to say something relating to QE in order to explain the pump that was already in progress.

They need retail investors to come in or all their expensive pump and propaganda efforts are going to waste.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:39 | 2292692 James T. Kirk
James T. Kirk's picture

+1.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:11 | 2292427 Eugene9876
Eugene9876's picture

Just tell me when it's time to buy TVIX...

 

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 21:38 | 2293107 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Trying to ride that pig to zero?

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 03:35 | 2293618 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

If you want leverage on VIX just buy an at-the-money or out-of the money call option out several months from now.  Then your losses are controlled-while your gains are theoretically unlimited!  Why is this concept so difficult to understand?  All leveraged bear ETFs suffer from daily compounding losses-that's guaranteed-if tht market simply fluctuates  up and down around an average you will lose money.  If you want to make money you must short them-and do it by buying puts or selling calls (more dangerous).  Then you know exactly how much you'll lose in the worst case.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:35 | 2292448 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

 

What do foreigners think?

Something changed this morning!  Long time Gold watchers will recall that in the past, any time that the Federal Reserve chairman spoke, Gold would always be pushed down during the speech.  That changed 2-3 years ago only to morph back into that pattern again since the Feb. 29th massacre.  It has changed again.  On CNBS this morning ... Gold down $3 or $4 when Ben Bernanke began a NABE tutorial and Gold took off... up some $18 for a $22 move.  This is definitely different than has been seen over the last month, and for good reason.

The U.S. is attempting to use the SWIFT system to shut Iran out of the global banking system.  As of Friday, they have threatened India with exclusion because of their plans to purchase oil from Iran directly and settle the trades in either Gold or another non Dollar fiat currency.

Big mistake! 

The mental picture that comes to mind is Yosemite Sam blowing both his feet off in a single fit of illogical rage.  The Dollar has been used to settle all international trade since WWII.  Back then it was "as good as Gold". The US was also viewed, back then and for many years following, as the saviour of the world and in general, the good guys.  Then it went around the world making lopsided and one sided deals that put the other parties into debt that could not be paid off.

Non payment?

No problem, just give us your natural resources on the cheap and we'll call it even.

Just ask the Central and South Americans.  This bullying then morphed into an even worse form of doing business, fraud.

In the 2000's Goldman Sachs et al circled the globe doing derivative deals that were even more one sided and crossed the line into the fraud zone.  Foreigners recognized this along with the fact that US finances going upside down and have been exiting the Dollar slowly for more than 10 years now.  They have also recognized the fact that they've been had. 

The mafia fraudsters are pissed and threatening India has crossed the line.

The BRICS are meeting to set up of currency blocs to settle trade amongst themselves without using Dollars.

Cutting the Dollar out of the equation means that these countries will not need to sell their currency and buy Dollars to make settlement.  The already weak Dollar demand will be devastated!

The initial impacts will be covered up by the Fed making even more purchases at Treasury auctions but, to NO AVAIL.

The jig is up, the cat's out of the bag, the can of worms has been opened.

Simplistically, all of the smaller kids on the playground have had enough, they are all joining forces and ganging up on the bully. It really is this simple.  The U.S. is finally reaping what it has sewn for the 40 years after defaulting on the Gold convertibility clause back in Aug. 1971.

Overall demand for the Dollar will diminish... a given... now the question is not if but how many Dollars will be returned to sender and plow back into the U.S.?  Another question is how fast will these Dollars be returned?  It is now only a question of the degree of Dollar negativity.

Dollars coming back into the U.S. from overseas is highly inflationary.  The system will have many more Dollars floating around while production remains unchanged ... more Dollars chasing the same amount of goods ... thus bidding up prices.  This is a "big mistake" but maybe this could be THE PLAN!  No one could be this stupid.

Back in 1971 the US went on the never pay plan and this is the part where they never pay.

The Dollar gets devalued, the Fed floods the system to repay Dollar debts, the Dollar collapses and then start over.

This has been done may times before, not however on a worldwide scale like this.  This, by the way is how wars throughout all of history have been started, when countries stiff other countries.

A very sad situation!  Is the Cabal just stupid and greedy instead of calculating and a bully? 

It matters is what foreigners think!

Whether by mistake or plan, the demise of the Dollar has greatly accelerated in time.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:47 | 2292527 walküre
walküre's picture

The jig is up, the cat's out of the bag, the can of worms has been opened.

The day when Bernanke openly announces a 3.6 trillion Dollar QE package is the day when WEIMAR meets WASHINGTON.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:31 | 2292619 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

 

 

B.S. Bernanke actually implied a need for more easing ... ya think...just maybe?  Gold went up while he spoke.  He sounded as if he was talking down to 3rd graders.  Nothing of substance.  But actually there was something. 

Anyone who can spell their own name should know that the Fed 100% has to print and monetize to infinity.

Go back to Feb. 29 ... the no more QE bullcrap to knock Gold down was just that... bullshit.  

$100 lower in Gold ...the coast is clear to start talking dovishly.  Perfect! Gold has to make up $100 just to get back to where it was manhandled downward so more easing could be done undercover of Gold not making new highs.

Not to fear, shortly $100 will be the average gold movement for just one day.

Present day games aside, all they did was buy a few days time.  Another week and a half or 2 ... no more than 3... for the HUI index of mining shares to set up again as they were at the end of Feb. for a potentially spectacular breakout. 

The next set up will come.  It will come with an even more coiled condition.

The Cabal can only postpone it, not cancel it altogether!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:54 | 2292759 GernB
GernB's picture

I disagree about the Fed. The argument you're making is because slowing down the bus will make it explode we have to accelerate towards a brick wall. At some point the passengers on the bus see the brick wall looming in the front window and throw the driver off the bus because they'd rather take their chances the explosion won't kill them and they know the brick wall will. The knee jerk reaction of the populous to runaway markets will be to become more conservitive, both in their own personal financial lives and in what they expect of government. Which wins in the end is not predetermined and history has precedence for the outcome being either a massive, earh shattering contraction, or destroying the dollar.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 19:09 | 2292810 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

David, I heard Tech Ticker today interview Bill Gross who also said "QE3 is a sure thing and there may also be a QE4 before year's end."

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 20:45 | 2293000 bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

Man, I hate to act like I know more than Bill Gross, but I probably do.  You can bet on QE infinity, until the day they decide to stop, wreck the economy where NOBODY gets paid, and the banksters take all our property.  With the rubber stamping NDAA, martial law executive orders, and all this bullshit going on, I would NOT be betting on any kind of functional economy.  QE 4 or otherwise.  This horse got beat to death and I expect them to pull the rug out from under all of you.  Study game theory or go to vegas and bet sports.  Please learn whatever you think is a sure bet, the opposite is probably the case.  SEE YOU IN THE FEMA CAMP, but not before I fuck some shit up!

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:45 | 2292730 ffart
ffart's picture

Bernanke now out in broad daylight campaigning with his banking cartel goon squad against sound money advocates. Setting up the fake straw man of a mythical gold standard to knock down, when the one argument he wouldn't dare touch is the argument over whether government control of the money supply is better than returning control back to the hands of the people, and letting them decide what best serves as money.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:55 | 2292767 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Overall demand for the Dollar will diminish... a given... now the question is not if but how many Dollars will be returned to sender and plow back into the U.S.? Another question is how fast will these Dollars be returned? It is now only a question of the degree of Dollar negativity. Dollars coming back into the U.S. from overseas is highly inflationary.

************

Until the US starts running a trade surplus with those countries--those dollars can't come home-unless all those countries stop trading "selling" their wares into the US-

How likely will that be during a global recession?

Of course they could invest those dollars in treasuries and the stock market-which Bernanke would love-but how that will cause any real internal dollar inflation i have no idea-

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 23:58 | 2293388 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Those countires can simply use those dollars to buy US equities and assets. That is probably what is causing the market to go nuts.

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 02:05 | 2293543 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Those countries can simply use those dollars to buy US equities and assets. That is probably what is causing the market to go nuts.

*********

Quite possible that foreign money will come into the equity markets and likely the bond market as well-but buying assets has been taboo-

Foreigners (Dubai) tried to buy ports and were denied by congress as potential safety (terrorist) risk-

China tried to buy Unical and were denied under the same guise-

Foreigners buying bonds and equities does not necessarily spill a lot of money over into the economy-

 

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 23:05 | 2293267 rocker
rocker's picture

That was pretty Dam Good Stuff.  Foreigner.  This IS how they plan on paying our debt and devaluating our buck.

What bankers tell you are always opposite of reality. Think Bernanke, "I will not monetize".  

Speaking of things that make you say Hmmmm. Not Really. I'm screaming. He's a back stabbing Liar.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 17:58 | 2292556 asteroids
asteroids's picture

You can't short this market.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 22:52 | 2293241 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

Yes, you can! The time is coming very soon, just don't miss out, when it goes it will go fast and down hard. More of the worlds mass population is begining to see the truth.

It will be a race between Europe or Japan to drop out first, then the HOUSE of CARDS with FALL....

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 03:23 | 2293607 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Not true.  Just identify the real dogs and buy ATM puts on them.  I'll give you some recent examples, FSLR, ANR, NFLX, SHLD, OPEN, TZOO, SODA, GRPN.    These are all "companies" that will eventually be at 0.  Just don't buy them at the bottom of their range and use puts not naked shorts in case your wrong.  Never use margin.  Control your position size so you don't suffer from gambler's ruin.  Be patient.  Don't waste your funds trying to short BIDU, APPL, or CMG.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:01 | 2292565 TooRichtoCare
TooRichtoCare's picture

Have you guys seen this?

Talk about not having a frikkin clue about interest rates, why they are where they are, and how you're not "entitled" to having low interest rates on a loan just cos you're a student!  These people are completely deluded....

When the banks go under...not because of subprime lending or bad Greek debt, but because of a trillion dollar Student Loan fiasco....then these very same people will turn around and blame the Banks for lending them the money in the first place, and will start up the whole Villify Wall Street gig all over again, and at no point will anyone say "well hang on a minute, you borrowed money so you could go to Iowa State University and smoke pot all day whilst getting a degree in 'Underwater Basket Weaving' and you based it all on an assumption that you'd graduate and get a $300k per year job?"

http://act.credoaction.com/campaign/reid_federal_student_loans/?rc=fb_sh...   Urge Harry Reid to fight to stop the Republicans doubling interest rates....what a joke!

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 19:54 | 2292908 Havana White
Havana White's picture

Poorly argued.  D-

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:02 | 2292569 Buttertooth
Buttertooth's picture

Could somebody please explain what "beta-adjusted" means.  I think beta refers to the volatility of something in comparison to the market but there's a good chance I am wrong.  Thanks

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 20:00 | 2292920 Havana White
Havana White's picture

Correct, Buttertooth.  Taking into account that gold is less volatile than silver (that is, adjusting for beta), gold's move today was more impressive.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:08 | 2292585 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

...it is clear that the intention is to implode the current USD reserve system and start again (no- one coui;ld have forseen this). TPTB will hold 99% of global real assets paid for in what is now useless paper. They will sternly tell us that speculation caused the crash and that will be banned. And we will return to some standard limiting money g=creation> BTW, whatever that standard will be, they will own. Civil unrest?...they will fry your ass with microwave crowd control weapons   (google "active denial system'). Honestly, I think this whole impending crash and reset was planned as long ago as 100 years (Fed Reserve Act) but accelerated under Ronnies watch.  And you know what? Unless you have alot of readies and can but PMs physical, you and your children are pretty much fucked.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:22 | 2292628 realtick
realtick's picture

"Cheering the comeback of the stock market, Greenspan tells NBC's "Meet the Press" that a rising stock market will do more to stimulate the economy than any of the remedies now being discussed."

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yKs0YDOJEpU/T3DphRgw8aI/AAAAAAAABBM/gndcckZXfoY/s1600/120326-I.png

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:44 | 2292717 GernB
GernB's picture

Companies actually being worth more, because they are priducing and selling more, will do more to spur the recovery. Someone paying more for a company than it is worth does nothing to put workers back to work, or get us out of the housing slump.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:22 | 2292630 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

no sign of the beta-differential, so prominently displayed, being due to shorts in gold covering, but maybe not so many shorts in silver trying to get out, today?

lQQk HERE4ANSWER

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:31 | 2292659 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"The VIX closed at its lowest since June 2007.."

Do thirteen Apricot computers hypothacating 25 Cents 2 million times a day have a VIX/pulse???

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 18:41 | 2292705 GernB
GernB's picture

Ya gotta wonder what Brenanke is thinking. Markets can't go up forever, and especially not in a straight line. The assets the market represent have some real value. The more you goose prices by hinting at QE3 at any sign of a potential correction, the more distorted their price becomes relative to their real value. When prices do correct it is going to be faster and more severe as a result of his tampering than if he'd just let the market work this out. Without his statement today we probably would have seen the S&P fall back to 1350-1370 and consolidate there for a while before either heading lower or recovering. Instead it it at $1415. That $60 difference has to work itself out some time, on top of all the other sometimes that were cut short by the Fed Charmans manipulation. We are working up to one whopping correction when the mrket realizes it doesn't matter how much the Fed prints the companies behind the stock prices aren't going to produce the earnings to support those price.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 19:07 | 2292800 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

HE'S A FUCKING MORON.  The only thing he has been taught is to print.  He's probably shitting his pants right now.  We all need to think about why he is where he is - to implode every world currency simultaneously.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 19:29 | 2292855 chump666
chump666's picture

We are done.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 19:39 | 2292881 chump666
chump666's picture

He is insane.  He looks nuts, kinda slurs his BS. I mean, he is juicing the market with that other nut Mario.  In fact he is juicing Mario with HUGE swaps to the ECB - which hasn't stopped.  Bond markets globally are now going to price in major inflation outbreaks room the oil/pump price.  How do they price?  Beautifully.  1. Inflation 2. riots and civil turmoil.  Now, I'd lock in France blowing up, Germany finally getting frisky and 100% UK going into riot city again.  America?  OWS2.  Widespread mayhem. 

And China...

Should see rates go up.  Overall.  The central Banks are leading us into market oblivion.  A massive correction is due, that an spec trades have been encouraged and I'll bet (I kinda am) that a rogue trade/s shows up again.  Total mess brewing.

With an all in market.  You wanna stay on the sides, sell positions and even find shorts pos from topped trades.

Momo's will be decimated when this sells.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 19:42 | 2292888 chump666
chump666's picture

Dear me, and now Brazil (great bellwether to Feds exported inflation and China sliding into the abyss)

from wires:

--Manning & Napier worried about "intrusive" policies in Brazil
--Manning & Napier reviewing outlook for Brazil, concerned about return of inflation
--Firm's portfolios still overweight in Brazil

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 20:29 | 2292976 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

there's a summit of the brics coming up very soon:

  1. BRICS    [Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa] India is happy to host the 4th BRICS Summit in New Delhi in ...
  2. Fourth BRICS Summit New Delhi|BackgrounderThe Fourth BRICS Summit will be held in New Delhi on March 28 - 29 ...

so there is all that stuff about the renminbi becoming a 'reserve' currency' for the brics (and possibly for iran?)

a lot of "information" will be aimed at forming opinions, especially fx opinions

and the US is pretty quiet, right now, too, but  southAfrica was featured here, today-->:  BRICs and South Africa move to unseat dollar as trade currency | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee  and brazil is also mentioned

so, in a few daze we'll see how fast the brics proceed with whatever they decide as the carriers dial in iran while "america'sFate" is decided in newDelhi

or something

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 19:44 | 2292893 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

which could be 2000 points higher from here....I am with you on this but this could go on for a while.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 20:17 | 2292958 chump666
chump666's picture

Maybe a few more weeks going into April, till the market decides to take profit.  But eveytime the market has tried to correct CBs have come into play.  Say yeah I dunno...it's topped.  But, who knows.  The more volume flows out and marked up trades.  Kinda scary. 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 20:55 | 2293026 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Kinda scary? I think it's holy shit scary. I thought the idea here is the market is dying to take a profit but there is no one to hold the bag of flaming shit anymore. Hence the volume problem.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 20:10 | 2292902 ekm
ekm's picture

Ben Bernanke: "If this hypothesis is wrong and structural factors are in fact explaining much of the increase in long-term unemployment, then the scope for countercyclical policies to address this problem will be more limited.  Even if that proves to be the case, however, we should not conclude that nothing can be done.” = CAPITULATION

Hypothesis is one of the most favorite words for scientists.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothesis

This is the process of scientific research:

1) Guess (the speed of light is constant in vacuum-Einstein) = Hypothesis

2) Quantitative expression of the guess (E=MC2)

3) Experimental (or natural) confirmation of the guess (theory of relativity confirmed in 1919 during the solar eclipse)

 

As per Bernanke this is the process of economic-scientific research:

1) Guess that the world and the western civilization will end the way we know it if BAC fails = Hypothesis. Women won't be able to give birth. Men will run out of sperm. Lions will be domesticated. Canada will invade USA. Jesus Christ may decide to show up, this time for the last time.

2) Quantitative expression of the guess:  Cocainated Easing 1, 2,3, 4, 5, 6...........

3) Experimental or natural confirmation of the guess: World starvation. Arab spring. Energy prices thru the roof. 50 million american on food stamps. 22% real unemployment.

 

Benny's conclusion: "However we should not conclude that nothing can be done".

My conclusion: This man is in a work induced psycopathic condition and will be a pscycopath as long as he remains a chairman. As soon he's not a chairman, he'll come back to his senses, same as the previous psycopath that found the light, Allan Greenspan.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 20:13 | 2292951 chump666
chump666's picture

He also follows a bizarre and scientific disputed theory; deterministic science ala Keynesism.  The markets are chaos, and you can't tame chaos.  He just distorts the values of bonds, currencies and encourages spec trading.  We get the crash, which will be this year at some point.  Should blow out Obama's chances. No sh*t.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 20:57 | 2292957 ekm
ekm's picture

Thx for commenting.

The market is extremely similar to Microbiology, constant change, mutation, adaptation.

Basically, he actually thinks he can control life. And I am not joking at all. He is trying to "abolish death". 

For Christians, Jesus Christ did that for the human death, Bernanke wants to be the jesus christ for the banks and economy. He wants to abolish death. Believe it or not, it's true.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 21:30 | 2293080 chump666
chump666's picture

Yes that's a good point.  Death is part of life, renewal etc.  The market to stay adaptive needs to flush out the crap.  Bernanke doesn't believe that, which is very dangerous.  The closest failed political theory that central banks are now evolving into is communism, which tried to do the same - and it failed miserably sans China trying to play from both ends.

The market will correct and it will be brutal.  But its bonds that will be interesting.  The inflation denial won't last and long term rates will start to spike.  Also a chaos event should emerge, that's gotta be Europe.  If something big happens there, war, riots, death, market collapse, Spain, something.  It will kill the bond markets.  So if the ECB prints more it will create further pain and turmoil.

Gonna be a fun year.  I think the market will crack open this year. 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 21:37 | 2293102 ekm
ekm's picture

Agree. It was ready to collapse in Nov 2011 right after MFGlobal when they came up with the swaps. Since then, if you have noticed, every 2 weeks they try to talk up the market. Every...two....freaking....weeks. Something is really, really bad, really sick. Following Nanex on Twitter, gives me a real time picture of the rot.

http://twitter.com/#!/nanexllc

Strongly recommend it. Few days ago, Eric Hunsader twitted that every morning, only the computers open up the market, no humans. 

Stop and think about it.................................insane.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 22:39 | 2293227 chump666
chump666's picture

Nanex is awesome.  I know traders that try to find patterns on HFT tight bid/offer spreads and set trades against them.  Kinda predictable.

But small coincidences usually lead to an event, like the TVIX debacle was just f*cking bizarre, MF Global etc  I think maybe Bernanke knows something, not too sure.  There could be a derivative meltdown lurking somewhere.  So it's like Bernanke is trying to support two markets, credit/yields low and stocks (bid).  He is a walking f*ckup, I mean oil goes bid.  Which is going be a main issue soon.  The mind boggles.  

I f*cking hate these academics, I really do. 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 22:59 | 2293257 ekm
ekm's picture

"So it's like Bernanke is trying to support two markets, credit/yields low and stocks (bid)"

Hm. Different angle.

As to Benny, I don't think he is acting independently. I think the Fed right now is fully under the orders of the White House or the Senate and Congress committee by some executive order. It looks impossible to me that they would allow visible psychopathy to run the central bank of the world independently. He must be under executive orders.

As a reminder, the constitution gives the US President dictatorial powers in emergency situations. I think that the executive order few days ago from Obama, has given to this president and the one coming dictatorial powers over the Fed Chairman (whoever that is), as long as the current executive order is not rescinded.

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 03:09 | 2293595 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Don't mistake correlation for causation.  The banking cartel, (i.e. the FED) controls the president not the other way around.  It started with their first "chosen one" Wilson in 1913.

From Wikipedia:

In his first term as President, Wilson persuaded a Democratic Congress to pass major progressive reforms. Historian John M. Cooper argues that, in his first term, Wilson successfully pushed a legislative agenda that few presidents have equaled, and remained unmatched up until the New Deal.[1] This agenda included the Federal Reserve Act, Federal Trade Commission Act, the Clayton Antitrust Act, the Federal Farm Loan Act and an income tax.

Any further questions? The money trust controls the politicians, not the other way around.  Its the drug deal/user relationship with printed $ substituting for the drugs that addicts (the politicians) need.  And warmongering socialists (Wilson, WWI), FDR,WWII, new deal, LBJ, (Vietname war, Medicare, Medicaid) need a lot of $!  The current teleprompter in chief is just the latest in a long line of puppets.

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 07:09 | 2293735 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

But... who is the Master of Puppets?

Master? Master? MASTERRRR! (Mettalica)

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 21:44 | 2293123 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Are you serious?

Jews want to be Jesus? Whats next the president wants to be like Castro? Ha! Oh wait...

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 21:47 | 2293137 ekm
ekm's picture

LOL

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 21:18 | 2293065 GernB
GernB's picture

I would add that it is necessary for markets to work out the chaos in order to efficiently direct capital ro productive ends. The purpose of central bankers is to ensure market cannot work out their inefficiencies, they are only allowed to go up, and when the market fails due to manipulation you blame the market participants (because your certainty that you are doing the right things won't allow you to accept the reality of the damage you are doing). Then youregulate more so that the inefficiencies you created become institutionalized.

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 21:38 | 2293108 ekm
ekm's picture

Sir

There is no market. It's just the Primary Dealers trading with each other, until:

- They run out of money

- Receive a margin call

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 21:27 | 2293078 ekm
ekm's picture

As to Obama's re-election, the only difference between USA and a Totalitarian Country X is that the people DO NOT have yet a totalitarian mentality. The economy is already fully controlled, hence totalitarian. If Obama gets re-elected, it would mean that the nation of USA has chosen to take over a totalitarian mentality, like the nation of China for example. If that happens, I'm packing up and going back to my birth country.

However, I see zero, zilch, nada chance that Obama will be re-elected. The hyper-demand for guns is proof of it. 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 21:01 | 2293010 Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture

Watch these addled muppets try to talk down to the Doc.  You can literallty see the hand up her fatuous ass:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/88966377/

Even Patrick Starfish knows they're so full of shit the feed lot truck driver holds his nose when they talk:

http://www.quickmeme.com/meme/3ohj1y/

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 21:17 | 2293062 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

The power of the Bernake to override....:

Feb. Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.09 vs. +0.33
Feb. Pending Home Sales: -0.5% to 96.5 vs. +1% expected; +2.0% prior
March Texas Fed Manufacturing Outlook: Business Activity Index 10.8 vs. 17.8 prior.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 21:23 | 2293071 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

"When Spanish conquistadors showed up in the prosperous areas of Latin America, they stole all the gold they could get their hands on and then set about putting the native populations to work. They set up “extractive institutions” whose purpose was to wring as many natural resources (silver, gold, food) from the land as possible while keeping power in the hands of a narrow elite. These institutions discourage savings and investment, since everyone knows any wealth can and will be arbitrarily expropriated."

 

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2012/03/the_hunger_g...

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 21:25 | 2293075 Tsunami Effect
Tsunami Effect's picture

When you take a college professor and his thesis and put him in charge of the world's economic future you are gonig to get a "professorial" result.  Can I translate for you? 

If your thesis is money printing = economic growth and job stability then FAIL must mean MORE is necessary.

These guys at the FED are completely insane so we have to be too to make money.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 22:54 | 2293245 drwillia1
drwillia1's picture

According to this looks like move could last up into end of March to early April

http://change-in-trend.blogspot.com/

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 23:10 | 2293279 dr.charlemagne
dr.charlemagne's picture

i am long the vix and taking heat but the 3 yr chart of the vix tells a pretty clear tale

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 06:11 | 2293693 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

ECB aggressively buying Portugese debt now - appears that they have to neglect Italy and Spain for a while in order to prevent Portugal from going Greek

This worked well for Ireland, seems to be succeeding also for Portugal... Every CB is now monetizing debt, by the trillions. How can this end well? Will they buy everything on the planet with their new money? How long before reality comes back? What if this is the new reality, they bought the future value of things and we'll pay for it?

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 06:31 | 2293709 silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

Ben is a fuckin moron.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 00:24 | 2302733 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/newsdesk/bernanke-lifts-gold-pric...

BMO Financial Group’s Don Coxe adding that “governments are running deficits "beyond the forecasts of all but the hardiest goldbugs five years ago; central banks are printing money and creating liquidity beyond the forecasts of all but the most paranoid goldbugs a year ago."

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 22:59 | 2308740 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Regarding the nominal s&p 500 chart /es e-mini & the "support & resistance" being shown...

http://flic.kr/p/avqbjs curvatures

http://flic.kr/p/avnwvp linearized using 1.05 to the power spy_price

 

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