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Bernanke's Cheat Sheet: SocGen Lays Out The Probability Matrix Of The Fed's Six Options

Tyler Durden's picture


We are sick and tired of speculating what Benny and the Inkjets will decide tomorrow. The truth is nobody knows, probably not even Benny (unlike that other guy who got a haircut at the Marriner Eccles building today and who speaks in tongues). So here is a quick and dirty cheat sheet from SocGen giving the probability to each of the six possible options that the FOMC can pick out of Bernanke's magic hat. With over four hours from open until the "Rien ne Vas Plus" is called, compulsive gamblers should be able to put some good money down on the trifecta.

(1) Operation Twist (duration extension): mostly priced in - impact minimal,

(2) Cut interest on excess reserves (IOER currently at 0.25%): possible, but no surprise factor and could backfire (negative impact on domestic banks, money market funds, reduces GSE incentive to lend to banks),

(3) QE3: market upping probability of QE3, but still likely positive impact,

(4) Pledge to keep balance sheet unchanged for a long time. Medium probability - a much cheaper option for the Fed than QE3,

(5) Setting explicit inflation/employment targets: low probability - Fed moving to increased transparency, however can’t see Fed giving up discretionary mandate just yet,

(6) Setting explicit GDP targets: a very bold move, much more inflationary - very low probability. The most likely scenario is Twist + some combination of 2 & 4, with the markets rallying initially whilst debating the real impact and sellers try to fade the move (starting around SPX 1250). If we do get QE3 then clearly 1300 becomes a more attainable target.


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Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:35 | 1690991 espirit
espirit's picture

Bob, I don't like the prizes behind those six  - can I see what's behind door number seven?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:46 | 1691025 Strike Back
Strike Back's picture

Well Jim, we normally don't do this, but since you asked:

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:57 | 1691047 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture



I'll take St. Carlin for all your stuff, Alex.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:10 | 1691078 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Do you think they use a Ouija board or a Magic 8 Ball to make decisions?

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:12 | 1691087 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Chicken guts and tea leaves?

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:16 | 1691100 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Giant Wheel of Fortune or plain old Dart Board?

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:23 | 1691115 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

A bag lady's advice on economics is far superior than SocGen.

Stupid cowards, won't even let the market short them.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:41 | 1691154 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

I was just speculating on how the FED makes it's decisions.   SocGen is a dead man walking, so who cares?

The FED board members write their ideas on a small piece of paper, then they are all put in a hat and the Bernank draws the winner out while wearing a blindfold? 

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:52 | 1691178 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

The decisions are likely intended to ensure WRC status of the USD.  Forcing lesser Central Banks to monetize debt and crash may be the MO.  How is too much to grok tonight.  Magic 8 ball will get back to us. 

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 02:11 | 1691284 Michael
Michael's picture

It has been suggested, for the super spectacular thing the US central bank will do tomorrow, Ben Bernanke will tender his immediate resignation. Others suggest The Bernanke will shoot himself in the head on live TV for maximum effect.

My preference leans toward the latter suggestion. 

This series of videos is for you Big Ben;

Just watch this shit if you want to know everything that is fucking wrong with our country and the rest of the fucking world.

best of walstreetpro2 (greatest fuckin hits) - 1 of 3

best of walstreetpro2 (greatest fuckin hits) - 2 of 3

best of walstreetpro2 (greatest fuckin hits) - 3 of 3

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 07:47 | 1691584 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture



What news does the Chair-Satan hold

What lies will the public be told

Will he twist, cut, or print?

He has sent us a hint

Just look what has happened to gold

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 08:50 | 1691858 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Kevin (walstreetpro2) said he was thinking of making some new videos,but that was over a month ago.  Sure miss his videos,

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 06:44 | 1691572 Kiwi Pete
Kiwi Pete's picture

I just asked the magic 8 ball if Ben will print. Answer is 'Most Likely'. 

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 08:57 | 1691874 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Benny asked the Magic 8 ball, "should I print?", and the answer was "Most Likely", too.  Then he spun the Wheel of Fortune, and it stopped on $1 trillion, just missing "bankrupt" again. 

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:11 | 1691082 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture


"Benny and the Inkjets"

Too phukkin funny!!!!

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:16 | 1691098 JoeSexPack
JoeSexPack's picture

Laughed out loud at that one!


Needed it since I'm working late in CA.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:39 | 1691145 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Getting images of a Bernanke Rorschach Spin Art...its like a moving picture with George Washington stuck in the center of a black hole.


Why, Mr. Anderson, why do you persist !

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:00 | 1691039 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

Door Number 7 is the best one yet.

No IRS taxes for two years. Reduce deficit by laying off IRS employees  during this time.

Sure fire way to get the economy on the up and up, and the government off our backs. And the most efficient way to play the QE game and the money back where it belongs. The people.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 02:04 | 1691325 Absalon
Absalon's picture

Door number 7:  LSAP - the Fed buys commercial paper instead of treasuries to drive down loan rates for business.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:36 | 1690995 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:36 | 1690996 FlyPaper
FlyPaper's picture

i wonder if SocGen has 6 options pre-determined for how they will wind down their operation and/or nationalization?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:36 | 1690999 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture


Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:38 | 1691004 runlevel
runlevel's picture


Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:41 | 1691009 sushi
sushi's picture


Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:41 | 1691011 SumSUN
SumSUN's picture


Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:40 | 1691003 SumSUN
SumSUN's picture

What is the probability of Bernanke starring at the ceiling for a good minute then turning to the crowd and announcing in a monotone voice "All your money are belong to us", then the world explodes?

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:13 | 1691091 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

I would rather see the Bernak come on TV (flanked by Jim Cramer and Steve Liesman) and have this happen:

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:42 | 1691005 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

here's slewie's entry: send every head of household below the poverty line in the US a check for $1000

hmmm...maybe prez0 doesn't need to play the "justice" card to get re-elected, now that it's being played on his styoooopid ass...

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:51 | 1691035 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

You don't seem to understand the rules of the game. What actually will happen is that for every US citizen below the poverty line a check for $1000 will be sent to a TBTF financial institution who will deposit it risk-free at the fed, generating idiotic bonuses for a bunch of fucking morons whos' big intelligent move in life was to sell their souls to a tbtf instition. Not to worry, though, because the average below-the-poverty-line American is too busy watching monster trucks, NASCAR and American Idol to give a fuck about how the country's being stolen from them. Bread and fucking circuses FTW.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:04 | 1691066 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture



Pvt. Joe Bowers: Man, I could really go for a Starbucks, y'know?
Frito: I don't really think we have time for a handjob, Joe.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 01:18 | 1691239 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey, shithead al!
fuk you i don't understand, asswipe!

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 12:33 | 1692860 stewie
stewie's picture

I'm affraid he does.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 01:18 | 1691241 Elmer Fudd
Elmer Fudd's picture

Only 10 Benjies per household?  C'mon, that helicopter can hold way more than that!

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:39 | 1691006 AndrewJackson
AndrewJackson's picture

The fact that doorway # 6 is even getting mentioned is indeed disturbing. We definitely are getting closer to the proverbial wall. Fewer and fewer options available and constantly upped doces of heroin (stimulus). The only thing I can take from it is to load the boat (not literally) with pms and commodities. 

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:41 | 1691012 Raynja
Raynja's picture

they didn't even bother including 'we'll watch the situation carefully and be prepared to step in'

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:46 | 1691024 espirit
espirit's picture

they didn't even bother including 'we'll watch the situation carefully and be prepared to step in' ... shit.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:47 | 1691015 Popo
Popo's picture

Option 7: QE3 / Operation twist combo, coordinated with direct Treasury handouts to Main Street (a la Bush taxcuts) - and all cleverly rebranded by the Fed in a vain effort to appear to be trying something new. CNBC and Bloomberg and Krugman all chime-in that the move is "brilliantly original" while the blogosphere instantly sees through the spin.

i.e: a shock and awe combo of everything that has already been tried, spun to sound new.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:49 | 1691031 espirit
espirit's picture

If they print though, most will have to prop the Euro.

Outrage in 3..2..1..

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:10 | 1691077 xtop23
xtop23's picture

 Were already propping the Euro

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:45 | 1691021 chump666
chump666's picture

I like SoGen...they called the EZ doomsday trade yr back.  They are on the money now on the FED, esp the rallaying part. Major meltup to meltdown (following day)...hopefully

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:46 | 1691027 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

SocGen lays it out? I thought they were dead.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:48 | 1691029 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

He should set explicit SPX targets.  "With immediate effect, the Fed will no longer tolerate the SPX below the minimum level of 3000. The Fed will enforce this minimum level with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy securities in unlimited quantities."  I think that'd do the trick

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:50 | 1691032 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Hell hath no fury like a MU scorned

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:55 | 1691041 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

It does not matter.

Their World has decoupled from the "real" for some time. 

Probably since you stopped watching CNBC.

I don't know of one person that is making more money compared to last year, yet trillions are sloshing around the World every 10 seconds.

The price of energy, be it food or oil, is going up and taking a bigger piece of everyone's pie.

Watch what the Fed "does," read all about GS and SG and then take a walk outside.

People are getting poorer by the minute and nobody can (will) stop it.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:56 | 1691043 bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

I expect everything but #4.  Don't let me down, Ben.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:11 | 1691044 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

What if he does all 6? They could call it Operation Tango-ChaCha-Twist with an extra helping of Eating your Peas.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:57 | 1691045 Belarus
Belarus's picture

We are sick and tired of speculating what Benny and the Inkjets will decide tomorrow

And, might I add, just sick and tired of being sick and tired of Benny and the Inkjets. Naturally, we are all sick and tired of these cocksuckers. There is nothing free about a market that can and will be moved by a jackasses mouth. 

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:58 | 1691049 bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

When is this asshole gonna drop a money bag onto my porch like he promised

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:22 | 1691106 tawdzilla
tawdzilla's picture

"When is this asshole gonna drop a money bag onto my porch like he promised"

You must have misheard him...he said he was going to drop kick you in the crotch.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:59 | 1691053 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

option 4 for now...

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 23:59 | 1691056 The Grifter
The Grifter's picture

QE3 is a given, the Bernank will print.   Obama wants it, Buffett wants it, Goldman Sacks wants it, the IMF wants it.

Some folks still think Bernank's hand are tied.  They aren't tied.   The guy does what he wants when he wants and will follow through with his academic playbook.   When the house Republicans sent him a letter today you had to know what's coming.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:16 | 1691099 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Grifter, Your senario makes sense to me too. If there's no QE3, it will all go downhill PDQ.

He could do nothing and let it crash and then step in with QE3. That way there would be

little backlash. I guess we will find out soon enough if he's worried about backlash.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:25 | 1691123 The Grifter
The Grifter's picture

That's right.   No way in hell Obama comes out with a unfunded jobs plan unless there is something to fund it, and no way in hell the Bernank lets the market crash.  A lot of phone calls from the golf course to the bathtub to Bernanke's crib have been made while the market waits.   Tomorrow we'll see the result.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 01:04 | 1691191 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Agreed.  Also remember that most of the FOMC members at one time or another since JH said that more easing may be necessary.  In other words, those remarks themselves were market pumping meant to alleviate the amount of ramp tomorrow, to have a certain amount already "priced in". 

JMO.  The fact that Greenspan showed up too makes me think something rather big is in the works.


Wed, 09/21/2011 - 02:56 | 1691402 Western
Western's picture

I think Greenspan showed up to have a "chat" with Bernanke, Zionist to Zionist.

In order for the can to be truly kicked down the road, brent and gold must drop so that our current medium of international trade, USD, can continue for a while longer. If that means a deflationary drop and a painful Autumn in US markets, so be it.

I don't buy into Obama propping up the markets so that he can get re-elected and/or that Bernanke's his lackey. Everyone on ZH agrees that they're both expendable to the elites, and they'll do their bidding; kick the can, continue the status quo.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 08:19 | 1691751 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Prior to many prior elections the Fed eased money so as to give the appearance of an improvement in the economy. However, in this death spiral pumping money does not seem to work particularly well. It exacerbates the ultimate problem.

The Rick Perry fraud seems to be working somewhat and Obama appears to be replaceable with Perry ... plan B. Plan A would have been to keep Barry in office for 8 years because he has a the patter down and can keep the inner cities from rioting and targeting elitists. Not sure how Perry can accomplish that ... hmmm.

I do agree that zer"O" is expendable and the most likely way to keep the scam going is to create a pullback in the markets and commodities although it is not impossible that they will try to make it appear that they are doing something while keeping a neutral net stance to let the current scenario play out.

Theater at its most contrived.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:00 | 1691058 The Grifter
The Grifter's picture

Double postin'

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:07 | 1691072 Terra-Firma
Terra-Firma's picture

If he prints he'd better increase his personal security budget. It just takes one person to do the unthinkable.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:43 | 1691159 Where My Dawg At
Where My Dawg At's picture


Wed, 09/21/2011 - 08:24 | 1691771 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

My guess is that people just don't do that (or that clones are replacing the key players almost daily, which might account for O's regularly changing hair color .... nah). The elitists kill people and people don't kill elitists. For the most part we hate wars and politics and see no reason for either.... We do not fit well with the elitists except as slaves and cannon fodder.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:08 | 1691075 JailBank
JailBank's picture

No where does it say inflation is coming along with these six choices.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:10 | 1691076 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture



Why is a SocGen analyst suddenly the "expert" on these type of affairs?

I thought SocGen was broke and about to go bust.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:11 | 1691080 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture



Risk Assets getting some wood in Asia.

Is the Eurozone Crisis and China Stock Bust finally over???

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:12 | 1691085 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Outright QE is not going to happen.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 02:50 | 1691396 honestann
honestann's picture

QE will exist as long as the USSA exists.

Who do you think buys US government debt?

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 03:27 | 1691440 xtop23
xtop23's picture

To clarify. Outright QE will not happen ...... in the next 2 days. 

QE over the long term is another matter entirely.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:14 | 1691093 The Grifter
The Grifter's picture

Why not?


Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:24 | 1691118 CapitalistRock
CapitalistRock's picture

Because if he waits til Dec. for QE3 he will appear as a savior and not the guy printing money and giving it to wall street fat cats when the Dow is already above 11,500.

Reason 2: gold is too close to $2,000/ounce and I believe that scares him. He'd rather scare gold back to $1,500 and then give us QE3.

In the end, waiting 3 months won't matter much. His policies will destroy the dollar all the same.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:27 | 1691128 The Grifter
The Grifter's picture

Bernank doesn't care about the price of gold.   All he care about is the price of stocks.   If he doesn't print, we'll never get though October, forget about December.


Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:54 | 1691188 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Bernanke doesn't care about the price of gold..... The whole world is about to go down the tubes,

and Benny knows it. If he doesn't do something big, the house of cards comes tumbling down.

He doesn't want to be seen as one who pulled the plug. He would rather have some outside event

trigger the crash. 

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 08:34 | 1691801 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

I believe that they "think" bigger and longer term than that. There is a plan behind the seeming helplessness. It is not helplessness otherwise they would never be paying interest on reserves. That is recent since 2008 and is designed to give an incentive to park money, not lend it.

... and maybe all the crazies are right. Maybe they want chaos. Maybe they want global war. Maybe they want marshall law. Maybe they want to depopulate the planet. Maybe the two earthquakes on August 23rd were actually underground nuclear explosions, as their seismographic signatures would indicate.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:31 | 1691135 Ye Ye
Ye Ye's picture

Because the market (read: China) thought QE expanded the money supply, and the reactionary reallocation caused commodity inflation, which actually net hurt the economy.  This time Bernanke will emphasize the balance sheet neutral nature of the actions (lower IOER + Twist to transfer to the long end) to manage expectations.  (p.s. Yes I'm an MMT believer so I think QE did not _actually_ increase the money supply but was just an asset swap; but reactions of market participants do matter).

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:35 | 1691141 The Grifter
The Grifter's picture

Say what dude?   You expect anybody to understand that.    People just want the damn stock market to go up.   It hasn't gone up in a while.   Bernank will fix it, print money.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:23 | 1691113 El Gordo
El Gordo's picture

Bernake will say "Ladies andgentlemen, I'm happy to report that we have made a decision as to the future Fed actions; however we all know that you are too stupid to understand it, so we won't waste our time telling you what it is."

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:31 | 1691134 TonyForesta
TonyForesta's picture

Burn it all down.  Time to go all Libya, Eqypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Syria et al on your ass.   The den of vipers and thieves on Wall Street and the predatorclass have robbed and pillaged waytoomuch, from fartoomany.   Time for realdeal horrorshow change.   Occupy Wall Street.  Shatter this PONZI scheme, hold these shades accountable, and reset.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:48 | 1691165 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

(7)  Bernanke, Geithner resign; administration taps Krugman, Kashkari as new Fed Head and T-Sec respectively.

BREAKING:  Acting Chairman Krugman invokes 13(3), announces plan to monetize all outstanding Federal and Municipal debt.  Seperately, T-Sec Kashkari rumored to be in talks with China on unveiling a new 'Yuanlolar' global reserve currency- convertible into Chinese manufactured photovoltaics and GM cars.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:51 | 1691171 sasebo
sasebo's picture

Whole lot easier to fuck around with paper money than it is to produce cars, appliances, food, clothing, energy, electronics, anything meaningful & useful. Anybody can fuck around with paper money, especially if you're the only ones allowed to print it.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 03:17 | 1691428 Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

Hopefuly this is something that is addressed in the next changes of the global currency structure.  Less printing, more productivity!

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:49 | 1691174 ParisianThinker
ParisianThinker's picture

So what currency is best to be in today? SocGen didn't tell us the answer to that one! But hey, I really need to know when Europe opens at 8h00.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:57 | 1691194 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

What currency is best to be in today?....That's an easy one. The oldest currency; GOLD

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 00:55 | 1691189 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Robo, I'm as cynical as you are... Busted banks guessing what the Fed will do is ridiculous beyond the point...

I don't know what will happen following the FOMC meeting... My guess is what will benefit the least amount of people though...

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 01:05 | 1691200 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

OT, but I made a butlt-load of cash off the short-squeeze on DMND today. ;-)  Gain of 10% on several trades today (initiated hold yesterday). So while the market buffoons push their  fake agenda for why stocks go up I don't mind because we all know these melt-ups are algos and short-squeezes. No one with half a brain believes this market is working and going up on fundamentals.


Wed, 09/21/2011 - 01:24 | 1691258 walküre
walküre's picture

Look at

US economy to go into recession in 2011 - 16% chance

US economy to go into recession in 2012 - 35% chance

Nothing here to justify any further monetary easing at this point in time.

Using accounting gimmicks aka "Operation Twist" notwithstanding, I predict no additional liquidity from the Fed. The liquidity in the system will have to work its way through and only when the wells are completely dry, shall we see another injection.

Repubs saying to Ben, not to ease and Goldman calling upon Ben to please ease some more is one for the history books.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 03:16 | 1691425 Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

Repubs saying to Ben, not to ease and Goldman calling upon Ben to please ease some more is one for the history books.

Seems like peeps just playing their parts.  They can cry all day but in the end the fed is "independent" and not held accountable to anyone.  Until that changes, goldman will cry for stimulus, because it wants more free money, and repubs can decry stimulus because it doesn't matter what they say, but they still "look good" to their constituents.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 01:49 | 1691301 onarga74
onarga74's picture

Anyone know what they're having for lunch?

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 01:51 | 1691304 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Bernanke will do nothing big. Here.s why : there's lots of negative attention on him. He wants to stay low. When it all breaks down, he doesn't want a mob looking for him.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 07:32 | 1691613 SofaPapa
SofaPapa's picture

It's way too late for that.  Bernanke is without a doubt the one man most closely associated with our current global political economic strategy.  There's no going back now.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 02:27 | 1691357 agNau
agNau's picture

Our own personal "One Trick Pony" Ben!
What's Ben going to do tomorrow?
He will amaze! He will astound!
Watch and see: 

Magic only works when the eye is deceived.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 03:03 | 1691409 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

....compulsive gamblers should be able to put some good money down on the trifecta.

Speaking of gamblers trifectas .. SocGen, BNP and Credit Agricole come to mind

Socgen is praying that Monte Hall and Santa can make it happen

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 06:04 | 1691547 nmewn
nmewn's picture

lol...Santa got led by the nose right down the old primrose path ;-)

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 10:32 | 1691942 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Ya, the dimensionality and sophistication of an aspirational big boy on display no doubt ;-)

Wonderful to see you nmewn.


Time for driving lessons with Benny :)

Pax fab pal


Wed, 09/21/2011 - 06:24 | 1691559 Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture

It's just one big slow flying default.  A game of last man standing.  At the very end when no country is sovereign, they're driven into hunger, they make decisions on how to get food, we'll say "all is forgiven".  Turn in your weapons we're in charge here but we'll give you plenty to eat.  The megalo's cartoonish dream come true.  The giant laser they pointed at the earth was their own debt go figure.  I don't hear anyone anymore saying America's shit smells like rose water.  Even the Marines are saying they're sick of this shit.  Well GODDAMN DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 06:42 | 1691567 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

I wonder if the Bernanke pulls a Secretariat at Belmont. Dam that would be shock and awe


Wed, 09/21/2011 - 07:18 | 1691577 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

Crisis! Crisis!

The Parasite in Chief is convening a meeting today in the frontal cortex of the host, due to the fact that the host seems about to expire due to the proliferation of parasitic activity. Experts are being called in to suggest ways to keep the host alive, otherwise known as "kicking the can down the road" in parasite parlance. One expert, with vast experience in a host which is currently on life support, has already begun to broadcast possible solutions that could be taken up by the Parasite in Chief. The nub of the matter is that currently there are two hosts in the process of being consumed but presently no readily available third host to which to jump. Thus it is imperative that measures be taken to prolong the life of the two hosts in question for the time being, despite the fact that this means lower nutrition for the parasites as the juicier parts of these two hosts, that would have assured a healthy life for the hosts had the parasites not taken over, were eaten first, rather than saved for last. Needless to say, even parasites have a learning curve!

We await with eager mandibles the outcome of this gathering.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 07:13 | 1691593 LMAO
LMAO's picture

It's a nice cheat sheet, from financial racketeers for financial racketeers giving the impression that the FED is going to pay for this party.

To wit:

(4) Pledge to keep balance sheet unchanged for a long time. Medium probability - a much cheaper option for the Fed than QE3,

Hmmm, it's the FED who foots the bill, right! Right?



Wed, 09/21/2011 - 07:35 | 1691618 Tompooz
Tompooz's picture

Crash first, then QE#3

rinse, repeat with increasing frequency

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 07:50 | 1691652 LMAO
LMAO's picture

rinse, repeat with increasing frequency

rinspeat ?

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 07:57 | 1691674 Sambo
Sambo's picture

The main problem is that we are habituated to looking at all problems (or maybe there is only one root problem) in a compartmentalised manner. What is needed is a holistic view of life. Now, as things stand, we have a system divided into food production (agri, meat, fish, poultry, dairy), storage, distribution, infrastructure (water, energy, roads, buildings, bridges, airports, railways etc), health (pharma, hospitals, clinics, gyms), defense (military, intelligence, weapons), transportation, textiles, auto, mining, metallurgy, chemicals, machines, clothing, communications, electronics, services, banking, aerospace, education, organised religion etc etc which all seem to connect with each other, while maintaining their own separate indentities, unique processes and unique problems. So how can we put all of them in one economic bowl & come up with a single monetary/fiscal solution as a quick fix?

The only way to improve employment & to have a stable financial system in the world is to (A) get rid of the harmful & wasteful things in society like tobacco, drugs, certain types of food & beverages like meat & coke, certain types of drugs sold by the pharma industry (B) make preventive care & healthy life style top priority; then you will eliminate half the diseases (C) improve the quality of education in schools standing on a bedrock of values; have dialogues on morals & ethics; facilitate inner growth (C) make healthcare compassionate as it should be, accessible to all & inexpensive (D) eliminate spending on military (E) end all wars & move towards a system that encourages cooperation among nations, across continents.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 07:57 | 1691677 PMakoi
PMakoi's picture

I'd go with;

2) Cut interest on excess reserves (IOER currently at 0.25%): possible, but no surprise factor and could backfire (negative impact on domestic banks, money market funds, reduces GSE incentive to lend to banks),

and, throw in 2a) Excess reserves US banks have with the FED is somewhere near $1.7 trillion.  Oooo baby, there is some serious liquidity that can be used to expand bank credit ala 2) above.  But, think big here... it ain't for businesses or the common folk, no.  The FED will use it (times 9 = +$15T) to lend to the Grubberment.

Can duly kicked, punt!  and, look at that hang time folks!

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 08:03 | 1691694 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

I think you are wrong in assuming Benny doesnt know what to do. He knows exactly what to do, he is just deciding how to go about it.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 09:40 | 1692014 Volaille de Bresse
Volaille de Bresse's picture

"Rien ne va plus" is the correct spelling... ;-)

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