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Bianco And Biderman On Earnings Ennui And Obama As The Ultimate Risk-On Trade

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A few lines from Hilsenrath and three little words from Draghi last week were enough to offset the reality of 300 corporate results which are indicating a pending US recession (at least empirically as James Bianco points out) given that negative YoY revenues are expected. This fascinating interview between the B-Boys, shifts from the crazy reality above to the incredible correlation between Obama's probability of being re-elected and the S&P 500 - making the teleprompter-in-chief a clear risk-on trade (which is the exact opposite to the relationship before he was elected) though things are changing. They address Draghi's heavy-handed approach and ask he if can do whatever it takes, just do it - don't keep telling us about it (obviously dismissing his capability of fixing anything); and conclude with a discussion of the fiscal cliff (which will be pushed off til after the election) and the reality of spending cuts versus higher taxes (noting that taxes are low since there are no capital gains tax). Seeing Biderman's Batman to Bianco's Robin is well worth the nine minutes.

The high correlation between the economy stock market and Obama's chances of re-election are significant but what is perhaps more interesting is that while stocks have reached back up to near recent highs - Obama's InTrade odds remain flat to those June lows (green and red arrows) - is Obama losing the marginal believer in prosperity?

 

 

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Wed, 08/01/2012 - 18:34 | 2670509 Cplus
Cplus's picture

Italy's broadcast media have begun referring to its EU partners not on board with Draghi Monti
monetization as "le paese rigidiste", not easily translatable.
It suggests that such nations are exaggerating the importance of finance to a religious level and
more than hints at their deficiency in style and intelligence.
As pure propaganda it is a nasty but effective way to demean some EU partners with no real attempt
to persuade them. We appear on course for more of this and worse.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:40 | 2670626 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

Dem udder guys are da problem.  Us wops are so sophisticated, I mean, just look at these suits. 

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 20:19 | 2670720 Michael
Michael's picture

Most Ron Paul supporters are going to directly vote for Obama in November so we have a new chance at a liberty candidate in 2016. It's that simple and effective.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 21:56 | 2670913 maxcody
maxcody's picture

Only a fool would vote Obama!

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 20:46 | 2670729 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i am so fucking glad the hot tee-shirt girl is back and has overthrown all the obama side panels i have had to endure....its the little things in life that count..

 

never mind hes back...see..little..very little...

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 18:34 | 2670511 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Where is that troll Hilsenrath now? 

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:36 | 2670612 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Where is that troll Biderman now?

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:39 | 2670621 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Over here?

Goldman Offering Clients a Chance to Invest in Facebook:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/01/02/goldman-invests-in-facebook-at-50-billion-valuation/

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:44 | 2670625 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Or over here?

I am willing to have Facebook be 2% to 3% of my portfolio.

- Biderman

TrimTabs Introduces Biderman’s Market Picks:

http://trimtabs.com/blog/2012/05/22/trimtabs-introduces-bidermans-market-picks/

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 09:49 | 2671958 Idiocracy
Idiocracy's picture

Biderman in bedman with Goldman

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:46 | 2670638 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

Seen boarding a very nice yacht at Martha's Vineyard.  Only peasants work in the summer.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 18:35 | 2670512 joemayo
joemayo's picture

The command economy needs a proven commander.  "Investors" chant, "four more years!"

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 18:37 | 2670519 veyron
veyron's picture

Biderman how's your FB call?  Down more than 50% OUCH!

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 18:42 | 2670526 Conman
Conman's picture

Technically his 100% short s&p call would override his FB long call.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:35 | 2670609 veyron
veyron's picture

Seeing as how FB is not in the SP500, logic and reason disagree with your assertion

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 21:00 | 2670790 Conman
Conman's picture

Right im sure he was saying be short only the s&p. wtf enoguh already with facebook call, everyone thought it would bounce on ipo frenzy and crash.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 23:47 | 2671115 veyron
veyron's picture

Not true at all.  The techies were saying it would flop, ZHers were saying it would flop.

 

Do you understand why an IPO pops?  Because of supply/demand imbalance, which FB completely wrecked by trading on secondmarket.  I bought and sold shares in the secondmarket long before the IPO ...

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 01:13 | 2671196 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

The level of market intelligence is sliding here at ZH. People following this guy is a clear example of that.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 18:44 | 2670523 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Welcome to Zombieland, where corporate earnings and facts are ignored- in favor of the threats and words of bankers. Fundamentals...fuck a bunch of fundamentals.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:28 | 2670596 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

"Don't make me shoot me!"

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 18:42 | 2670527 RSloane
RSloane's picture

"Obama is a risk-on asset."

Lets see how well he does during Q3. Wonder where risk appetite is going to be by then.

 

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:30 | 2670599 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

"Uh... you didn't build that!"

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 18:43 | 2670531 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Hilsenrath and Draghi pumped in a 6% rally.  Today's FED speak should back out half and Draghi should take out the rest.  Time will tell.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 18:46 | 2670539 Jefferson
Jefferson's picture

Perhaps a better interpretation of the correlation between the S&P and Obama's election chances is that both are being driven primarily by expectations of more QE from Bernankster.

Which just goes to show you who is the primary point person for the globalist in the good old USSA.

 

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 18:53 | 2670547 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

i'm long binderman towels.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 18:58 | 2670552 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

So the plan is to stimulate the market to get capital gains up so the govt can increase their tax revenues off those gains?  lol, yeah we're done.  And there I was irritated that algo's are in control of the market. 

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:25 | 2670594 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Thats why I am against tax increases for anybody.  They won't reduce the deficit or the debt one iota.  They will just spend EVEN MORE!!

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 21:51 | 2670901 goodrich4bk
goodrich4bk's picture

Recent history suggests you are wrong.  Taxes increased under Clinton and the deficit shrank dramatically as the eocnomy strengthened.  Taxes decreased under Bush and the deficit exploded.

You are correct, though, that Congress will spend regardless.  But cutting taxes does not reduce spending.  It merely passes the tax obligation to younger taxpayers, with interest.

Another way to look at it is to ask yourself, who is in the best position to cut spending?  The people who own our government, right?  That's not you and me.  It's the 1%, the bankers, the elites and their mouthpieces.  Make them pay more in taxes and I guarantee they will find ways to reduce spending.  As it stands now, they LOVE big government because most of them receive far more in benefits from the anti-competitive effects of a large central government than they pay in taxes after they take advantage of all of the loopholes.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 01:17 | 2671200 ffart
ffart's picture

The deficit didn't shrink under Clinton.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 06:07 | 2671334 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

The social security fund sure did though...

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 18:59 | 2670555 roadsnbridges
roadsnbridges's picture

Watch Jeetner, at the last, cut off the PPT to avoid the debt ceiling - again.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:03 | 2670562 Doublescythe
Doublescythe's picture

Why are we continuing to post  Biderman clips?

Every call the guy makes has been smoked.

S&P 100% short, FB long?

Idiot, move on, nothing to see here, this isn't the analysis we're looking for.

If the man is incapable of plugging into the Matrix despite numerous attempts to do so, it's time to find a new  savior. 

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:07 | 2670571 unique_snowflake
unique_snowflake's picture

Haters are just jealous.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:32 | 2670602 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Jealous? From losing money listening to this stooge?

LOL.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:16 | 2670578 Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

Anyone else who called an fb long would rightly be laughed out of zh, even kramers buy ms at 20$ is less of a faceplant, why is biderman allowed some sort of godlike status credibility is everything, going long fb kills credibility.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 20:00 | 2670670 unique_snowflake
unique_snowflake's picture

It's amazing to me how many ZH chat boarders have a 100% record on being right.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:20 | 2670587 magpie
magpie's picture

The only reason I even considered a FB long was the flawed thesis that stocks like that go against the general market...until they don't.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:38 | 2670617 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

anyone. if you have a child or know one in a State Univ etc.. enrolled in Economics or Finance. tell the to quit now. Its been rendered totally pointless by our pal ben and his cronies.. really if you were an Econ professor what would you tell your  students?

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 19:39 | 2670623 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

If the Dow falls hard and does not recover, history tells us Obama is out.

 

Through the eyes of Elliott Wave, that's exactly what's going to happen.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/dow-jones-industrial-average-daily-augu...

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 20:12 | 2670696 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture
For those bettors out there (I only bet on elections; that way, when my guy wins...I actually benefit):

- Obama has gone from -178 to -158 in the last two months (Pinnacle Sports).  I expect the line to re-move, up-or-down, depending on Friday's NFP number.

- 94% of all candidates who have raised the most money (this race will have the biggest pricetag, ever), have won their race.  Romney is the current leader.

- No Presidential Incumbent has ever been re-elected when the Unemployment Rate is at or over 8%.

- A Mormon has never been elected President.

- No Black Man has ever been re-elected President.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 20:25 | 2670735 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Whichever team has the fewest members write in 'Ron Paul', 'The Lorax', or 'My cousin's friend's sister' - will win..

either way, hold your nutsack or beef curtains and wait for one HELL of a ride

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 20:49 | 2670772 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Frightening. Biderman has that damn cough that all the people waiting today at the DMV had and half the people in AA have and the students in college have and that I don't have yet.

Gloating over doom. They are two sheets on the short side of happiness. You know they're going to hog heaven when the collapse hits.

Good to see a Biderman clip.

 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 03:50 | 2671166 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

I do not invest, rigged market and all. But I am a subscriber to Biderman's You Tube page, I just enjoy listening to him. And his facial expressions can be funny at times.

I do not care about his face plant calls one iota. Nobody is perfect 100% of the time, not even algorithms. ;-)

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 02:44 | 2671252 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Why should a market crash automatically be a lose for Obama... what % of Americans own stocks?  Most don't.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 03:51 | 2671291 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

This is what I mean!  ;-)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5aTf1VHxB0

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