Bianco And Biderman On Earnings Ennui And Obama As The Ultimate Risk-On Trade
A few lines from Hilsenrath and three little words from Draghi last week were enough to offset the reality of 300 corporate results which are indicating a pending US recession (at least empirically as James Bianco points out) given that negative YoY revenues are expected. This fascinating interview between the B-Boys, shifts from the crazy reality above to the incredible correlation between Obama's probability of being re-elected and the S&P 500 - making the teleprompter-in-chief a clear risk-on trade (which is the exact opposite to the relationship before he was elected) though things are changing. They address Draghi's heavy-handed approach and ask he if can do whatever it takes, just do it - don't keep telling us about it (obviously dismissing his capability of fixing anything); and conclude with a discussion of the fiscal cliff (which will be pushed off til after the election) and the reality of spending cuts versus higher taxes (noting that taxes are low since there are no capital gains tax). Seeing Biderman's Batman to Bianco's Robin is well worth the nine minutes.
The high correlation between the economy stock market and Obama's chances of re-election are significant but what is perhaps more interesting is that while stocks have reached back up to near recent highs - Obama's InTrade odds remain flat to those June lows (green and red arrows) - is Obama losing the marginal believer in prosperity?